Trading & Investing: Tesla Trade Level, Stock Market Near Resistance, Stock, Crypto, Gold and Silver

Trading & Investing: Tesla Trade Level, Stock Market Near Resistance, Stock, Crypto, Gold and Silver

[Music]
[Music]
e good morning everybody welcome to this
Monday morning game plan my name is
Gareth solay Chief Market strategist
here at verified
investing.com lot to discuss today Tesla
is ripping up Apple’s having a rally
semis are kind of mixed today so we saw
a big rally late last week in the semis
now those may be taking a break we have
seen again that apple and Tes and Nvidia
tend to move in opposite directions
money flow one way then money flow back
so let’s get right into it there’s a lot
to cover this week let’s go for it all
right so first and foremost let’s flip
over to the Chart the first thing I
wanted to start on was some history
right so what I did over the weekend
guys I did a lot of writing in terms of
um articles on the website on verified
investing.com and what you could see
here is this is an amazing chart it’s a
little bit on the bigger side but but
what you can see and you can go to the
verified investing website scroll down
but you can see that in 1918 in the W
viar Republic right in Germany basically
one gold old deuts Mark was worth one
paper deuts Mark or or Mark right and
look at the inflation rate to the point
where one gold deuts Mark was then worth
ultimately essentially a trillion
dollars in paper and that is what we
call hyperinflation folks and I only say
this not to say that we’re at that point
yet here in the US or any other country
but when you think about the GDP rates
that you’re seeing debt to GDP you know
Japan I mean we’ve talked about the the
yen collapsing essentially against the
US dollar because of what’s going on
there they have 250% debt to GDP ratio
here in the US we’re about
130% and ultimately my point is is that
we need to learn as a as a world about
history and history ultimately can help
us avoid some of these mistakes now many
people would argue and say oh well you
know hyperinflation will never happen I
disagree I think again you’re getting
down a slippery Road where you get to a
point where ultimately the debt there’s
no way to pay it off right essentially
you get to a point where interest rates
are so high that the amount of interest
payments on that debt are only going to
help or make it grow bigger and bigger
and bigger and then how do countries pay
off debt they print their currency and
that’s exactly what happened here in
Germany after World War I here you can
see in this picture amazing picture by
the way this woman is literally lighting
her stove with
money billions probably in money right
here putting it right into the stove
because this money was worth less than
buying Lumber or or wood for the
fireplace so just things like this you
want to be aware of guys is that you
know and again you look at some of the
causes that essentially went on in in
Germany and essentially they ended up
after World War I they they basically
funded World War I by printing money
right so they had a massive amount of
debt from World War I and then the
reparations afterwards from World War
One it only added to that debt and what
did this the country do they said well
listen there’s no way we can pay this
off so let’s just print our money and
pay it off that way and ultimately it
worked the country got mostly out of
debt that way by the you know basically
hyper inflating their currency but um
what ended up really going on here is
the people suffered right people that
had a lot of money ended up that money
being basically worthless people were
starving and so on and so forth and so
it’s just a little bit of a heads up in
that respect the other thing I wanted to
show you guys is this chart here which
is a chart I put together this weekend
on reverse repo now if we remember
reverse repo is very very important to
understand the flow of money and I know
it sounds very simple but the flow of
money and how much money is in the
system really determines if the stock
market goes up or down to explain this
basically I denoted here and I put it on
this right is that here was the reverse
repo and to understand reverse repo here
basically when reverse repo goes up
banks are taking money that they have
and parking it at the Federal Reserve so
here banks have had a lot of money you
know and all of a sudden they started to
funnel it to the Federal Reserve because
it was the safest place to store money
and they were getting a guaranteed
return right what better place than at
the Federal Reserve to store your money
basically as guaranteed as it can get
and so as the banks pushed money into
the fed and stored it there it sucked
money out of the system out of the
financial system and interestingly
enough you can see as the money got
sucked out this is when the stock market
topped in 2021 right here and as they
continue to do it we saw the big
correction in 2022 the bare Market the
NASDAQ was down like 37% I think the S&P
was down about 25% then what you can see
is reverse repo topped right here and
literally basically to the day the stock
market bottomed in October of 2022 so as
soon as the the bank stopped pushing
money and storing it at the Federal
Reserve essentially taking it out of the
monetary system that’s when the stock
market topped and then look at this this
was the top on this was the bottom of
the market the stock market and then
what happens to that money well the FED
eventually has to give that money back
to the banks and as the FED is giving
that money back to the banks it’s
flooding the system with so much
liquidity and you could see here and
what do we know about the stock market
from October of 2022 to where we
currently are we basically ripped up
took out the previous 2021 all-time
highs and ripped up and made new
all-time highs and we’re essentially
right around those all-time highs notice
reverse repo though is starting to level
out and this to me is another indicator
that if if listen it’s not going back up
which would be sucking money out of the
system but you’re kind of getting to a
plateau area here where you may stop
seeing at least additional money from
the banks go or coming from the FED
going into the banks that then gets lent
out into the monetary system so little
stuff like that I love kind of doing a
macro Monday basic you know insights
here as we get into things all right so
we’re going to take a look at the charts
in just a second here but I do want to
do our drawing guys because again there
was a free year of trading View and
again to do that what we’re going to do
is we’re going to do our quick drawing
here and see who wins that free year of
trading view so here we go guys again
love the comments on Friday about what
you would change or not change about the
game plan I did read them and thank you
so much for posting all right so the
winner of one year of trading view right
here Williams john- o2g congratulations
buddy absolutely awesome well done and
thank you so much for following us it’s
my appreciation to you that I can get
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day okay don’t forget reach out to lotet
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again that’s lton verified investing.com
that’s where you email to claim your
prize all right let’s look at the S&P
500 so number one markets are higher
Today part of that is we’re seeing
yields come back in right right so this
is your Friday data right here this is
the daily chart notice we kissed a level
that I gave you in Friday’s game plan as
a high resistance level at around just
under 510 right around 509 to 510 we did
get pushed off there if we flip to the
intraday action we can see that again
here’s where we closed on Friday right
over here and you could see after hours
on Friday and then this morning we
gapped up and we kind of floated back
down and are moving back up and so we’re
right at that this is that same line
from Friday that we were just looking at
on the daily chart this is where we’re
hovering right now now in all fairness
if yields remember markets tend to go up
when yields come in so yields right now
and we can flip over to the 10year yield
this is your daily chart of the 10-year
yield and if we look at this and we zoom
in on it what do we see 10year yield is
down today just a little bit we’re back
to
4.63% now again remember I’ve predicted
and I forecast that we should actually
come back in and come back here over the
next couple months so I do think Ys are
going to come back down the question is
and this is the really the conundrum
that I’m facing is that you know
normally you’d say oh if yields come
back here the markets are probably at
new all-time highs I’m not sold on that
and the reason I’m not sold on that is
because we saw GDP come in so much
lighter if the jobs data this week comes
in light yes yields will pull back but
the question is does that still leave
the door open to oh my gosh the economy
is weakening but inflation is still
moving up is there the stagflation worry
like basically what we we saw is when
that GDP number came out the markets
were not thrilled about it right and
again the question remains is does that
be is that reinforced by a weak jobs
number this week and just to quickly
have you guys on point here so on
Tuesday after the close Amazon reports
earnings all right Wednesday morning we
get ADP private sector numbers we get
jolts at 10: a.m. jolts stop which is
job openings data then in the afternoon
the Federal Reserve announces their
policy statement I’m going to go live
like I do every fed meeting at 150 p.m.
eastern time mark it on your calendars
guys 1:50 p.m. eastern time I will be
going live here to trade the FED
announcement cover it watch the charts
I’m hoping Dr B joins me as well we’ll
be rocking it right here for you guys
then again Thursday after the Bell Apple
reports earnings and Friday morning we
get the jobs report so there’s a a lot a
lot of stuff this week that’s going to
be very influential on the charts and
keeping us on our toes okay so again
yields are coming down just a little bit
that’s helping the stock market catch a
little bit of a bid here you can see
again pre-market the S&P is trading up a
little bit here again if we go back to
the daily chart we know we have
resistance here at 510 basically and
then also at 513 so these are the two
levels I have resistance number one
resistance number two okay so again my
thought process here is very simple we
should ultimately see a reversion here
we’ve Fallen we’re going to come up here
maybe up here and then I still think
we’re going to roll over I still think I
think this is a sell the rip market
right now even in spite of the recent
rally remember you don’t have Market
tops where you just collapse and go
straight down because buy the dippers
have been programmed in fact no more
never in history have people been
programmed more to buy the dips than in
this market environment because the FED
has always been there to lift us up with
free money and printing money the only
problem is a little different this time
because inflation is higher than usual
and that’s something that again we have
to take into account to understand if
the markets are going to roll over
because remember higher for longer rates
means that the financial stress on the
economy is larger which is the the
likely outcome is a recession so again
I’m still in the camp we still see a
recession by year end but I do think
that again you have to think that what’s
the outcome for stocks in that scenario
well if we have a recession consumers
are spending a lot less and therefore
stock valuations probably have to
reflect less earnings potential okay
going to a couple other starts we got to
talk on Tesla here real quick Tesla guys
was one of my crown jewel calls in this
game plan I said going into earnings I
was long right down here big move to the
upside awesome well guess what over the
weekend Elon Musk comes out surprise
visit to China China just singing his
Praises over there everything’s hunky
dory and essentially they got their fast
their their self-driving uh system
approved in China the stock is soaring
this morning and I have some levels on
the on the chart but let’s go to the
intraday let’s take a look you can see
again look at this move up folks again
if you had told me I mean listen I was I
was bullish going into earnings because
of the chart just simply the chart but
if you had told me we would be up from
$139 to
$91 in five trading days from earnings I
would have said you’re crazy but here we
are here we are now again I was bullish
down there to be honest seeming a little
based on charts and momentum to be a
little overdone here on the charts so
let’s go look at the daily levels so
there are a couple daily levels we just
pre market we’ve gotten through this Gap
fill here so again we’re looking at a
little bit of a level above but there’s
two huge levels on the chart right here
there’s a big gap fill and there’s a
pivot point gap fill right here right so
that zone is basically 203 to 208 I
think
203 to
208 that is a huge level of resistance
on Tesla so just be aware of that that’s
looking to me potentially like a level
where Tesla could pull back so again
loved it down here we know that that
trend line was one of the most epic
trend lines the methodology that I teach
in my education guys is that when you
have a trend line that extends back this
amount of time going back to the 2020
lows to this low here when you get to
the the second or third hit the
likelihood is probabilities favor a
bounce once you get to the fourth and
fifth and sixth hit the probability
starts flipping to a breakdown so as of
now this was the third hit of the line
it made sense that it was going to
bounce thus the bullish call now the
question is again are we starting to get
into resistance on Tesla remember
Tesla’s earnings were not good it’s just
that the expectations were so low that
you just needed and I said this I still
remember I said the best thing about
being long into earnings is that
especially on a beaten down Tesla is
that Elon musk’s ego takes over and he
does not like to see the shorts winning
on that and so therefore he’s going to
come out with guns blazing and say
amazing things and that’s exactly what
he did they talked about a cheaper car
this and this compete and all these
things and now he’s just putting the
screws you know to the shorts and
driving this thing up but that’ll only
last so far until there’s actual real
sales behind it so again watch that 203
is to 2089 level that should be a key
level there next up we have to talk
about Apple this morning look at Apple
all right so they basically got an
upgrade um an analyst coming out one of
the main analysts coming out and saying
that Tesla I mean excuse me Apple is the
the fear about China on Apple is not
it’s not systemic meaning it’s it’s more
economic and so this will pass and
that’s really giving investors that
positive View today where we’re trading
at 173 uh 74 right $173 74 now if we go
to the daily chart there are some levels
to watch here so lots of resistance
right up around
175 so again right in this Zone I have a
Downs sloping trend line again it goes
off the page but there’s a major level
here at 175 this could be a Day
tradeable level for me today not a swing
trade short but a day trade and then
also you have a pivot point right here
and right here at around
17850
17850 right so that’s going to be my
level that I’m watching as well so these
two as of now these aren’t swing trade
short levels for me these would be more
day trading but again those are my two
short-term resistance levels on Apple
we’re very very close to this one here
and I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit
that one today that’ll be the first test
of resistance on on the chart all right
other than that guys again we’ll have to
see where things go um I’m looking
across the board but I think at this
point let’s get to our wheel spin as
it’s getting a little bit later in the
morning session here and what we’re
going to do is we’re going to spin this
wheel as we always do the wheel of
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guys so again another year of trading
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either way congratulations to tomorrow’s
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today all righty guys we’re back thanks
for taking that little 30-second break
guys right back into the charts we’re
right with Bitcoin here all right so a
couple things to go over on bitcoin
number one over the last week or so
we’ve been slowly fading it’s been a
very slow fade but what we can see here
is that we got very close to my upper
resistance line now again I show I’m
showing the zoomed out because I want
you guys to see where these trend lines
come from but in reality we can zoom in
to kind of keep it a little bit simpler
and really show you guys uh at home or
wherever you’re watching the level so
right here we still know that we have
our key support right here we have key
resistance right up in this range and
again these come back from previous
pivot Points going back off the screen
so watch this level I believe it’s right
around
61,000 now all right 61k right there
that is your key support on bitcoin you
want that to hold if it doesn’t hold you
got to level around 59,000 but then
nothing until around 53 to 52,000 on the
upside if you’re a bull you got to see
this level broken up here so this level
again look at how it’s sloping up it’s
getting closer in fact you could
actually draw a secondary trend line
here through this high and this high and
it’s basically coordinated right up in
this 70,000 Zone up there so this is
your resistance level this is your
support level I’m still waiting to see
which way it breaks But ultimately as a
technician of the charts this keeps me
very calm like I know a lot of people
are so like you know on the edge of
their seat about what the next move in
crypto is going to be but you just
really just let the charts speak to you
you you sit back and say okay well I
know my support if it breaks that yeah
then you get a bigger down move if it
breaks here honestly you’re probably
going to well above all-time highs all
right so we’ll see what those charts do
for us in the coming days uh ethereum
ethereum tagged it actually had a decent
week in rally here it did tag resistance
and the resistance worked like a charm I
mean amazing to just watch the charts in
action so again we have our two lines on
ethereum one comes right back here to
here and right through here in these
lows right and this that’s right what we
hit on Saturday I should say on Sunday
and then look at how price was rejected
right off of that coming back in now
again same thing as Bitcoin you have
your support down here around 277 uh 28
I think it’s around 2850 give or take
and then we have our resistance right up
here around 33 to 3400 which way does it
break the only thing that’s a little
nerve-wracking about ethereum is that at
least in the short term what type of
pattern formation is that and again we
can even draw something like that again
this type of pattern is a bare flag or
in spirit of bare flag and so again you
look for kind of clues about which way
it’s going to go slightly negative
slight negative bias but again you know
ultimately the Arbiter of Truth is going
to be which line does it break through
and confirm through right so again just
something to keep an eye on ethereum now
gold we’re going to have some fun with
gold today because Gold’s not moving
much but what I do want to do real quick
is I want to go to our monthly chart and
I want to show you this guys this is
pretty darn cool so on our monthly chart
if we zoom out there is a monster trend
line that I actually showed to you guys
and this is where I said it would stall
out on the chart but but what we have
here look at this so you guys see this
chart going back to
1979’s high right there that was a big
blowoff move then we have this line here
this is the high of 2011 and then if you
zoom in I want to show you this because
this is just a power of lines we did
Pierce by quite a bit this line but on
the month L chart look at the candle
it’s actually come back right to that
line incredible right so again we were
trading all the way up here but the
monthly candle hasn’t closed yet and it
look at where it came back to and again
the month what do we have like one more
day so I’m very curious to see do we
close on below or above on the monthly
now I’m going to show you guys something
you want to see the most bullish
prediction my most bullish prediction on
gold and again please be understand as a
technician of the charts I look at every
angle I look at the most bearish I look
at the most bullish I look at the levels
in between so what I’m going to do today
for you guys is show you this is this is
my this is and again I want to be clear
I don’t want people be like oh GTH
saying it’s going to 8,000 this is one
of many scenarios one of many scenarios
but as a technician I have to be aware
of them so what we’re going to do is
we’re going to go back to our monthly
and what we’re going to do is look at
the bull runs of each of the last bull
markets and we’re going to map that out
we’re going to use that as our predictor
and so basically if we go here and you
can watch it on the chart and we go up
here we had a basically a
634 per gain from the beginning of this
bull run to the high of that bull run if
we go to the 19 uh the 2000 low uh same
kind of thought process here we take
that low and we bring it up here what do
we have guys look at this look at that
all right so now what do we have so in
terms of this chart we had a 633 per 634
per gain in this bull market gold then
ran 630 per essentially the same amount
I mean isn’t that wild that the bull
runs were percentagewise the same in
each bull market going back to the 1970s
bull market to the 19 the 2000s bull
market so by the power of deduction if
we saw from the consolidation lows where
would this go right well you probably
have to use this low right so we we have
to use this low right here as our low
pivot but then let’s drag a trend line
up
630 let’s see where this thing could end
now again to do this this is where it
gets tricky right because to do this I
literally have to shrink my chart down
insane amounts actually we need to start
the line first because otherwise I won’t
even be able to pull the line from the
low but if we take the low from 2015 and
drag it up we’re going to have to keep
going we’re only at 141% right now now
240% now 45 almost almost there let’s
see where this goes
630 per. we’ll call it right there so
basically what we’re looking at here
guys is and again please understand this
is just one potential this is probably
again the most bullish potential but
this bull run on gold could potentially
take us up to almost $8,000 an ounce now
you say that’s wild I mean holy cow yeah
you’re right it is wild but in a weird
way if you’re like me you could almost
see how that could happen like imagine
the economy gets really weak and the Fed
has to start printing money and the
government the less Revenue comes in the
government so our debt starts to grow
even more and what I mean again in a
recession are they really going to push
austerity measures and push us into a
depression no so they’re going to have
to take on more debt more debt and more
debt all of these things bullish for
gold right and so ultimately by the way
bullish for Bitcoin too if you’re a fan
of Bitcoin uh and I totally understand
and that’s my long-term thesis for being
a bull on bitcoin but anyways just
wanted to do that little projection for
you guys pretty wild stuff maybe we’ll
do silver tomorrow to look at where
silver could go uh looking at the chart
here on oil oil again is bouncing up
just a little bit here again little bit
of a bounce this could be the beginning
of a bearish pattern so we’re going to
look at that a little closer but right
now it’s holding technical support and
then quickly onto the chart for natural
gas kind of had a disappointing second
half of the week but it is starting to
curve up so let’s see can we still run
up to my target of
$220 or to
$225 all right guys I got to get to my
trading floor here here so let’s rock
that football right here you guys again
thank you so much don’t forget to share
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great one guys let’s go rock this week
take care
[Music]

Master Trader Gareth Soloway breaks down the charts and macro data like nothing ever available to the public. Usually kept for institutions, Gareth reveals tactics, trade levels and analysis that will blow your mind and make you a BETTER investor/trader. He covers stocks, commodities and crypto and will walk you through everything you need for the day to be a winning trader and investor. The Game Plan rockets past CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg in quality and actionable alpha. The show is a quick 15-20 minutes LIVE. Gareth is all about pure charts and data, no emotion. These are the keys to profitable investing and trading. Tune in at 9am ET Monday-Friday or if you can’t make it, be sure to watch the LIVE recording which posts immediately after the show airs! Others are making money and learning valuable trading tactics, don’t miss out!

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