Trading & Investing: Semi’s Flush On AMD, SMCI, SBUX Consumer Stress, Market Turmoil, Bitcoin Flush

Trading & Investing: Semi’s Flush On AMD, SMCI, SBUX Consumer Stress, Market Turmoil, Bitcoin Flush

good morning everybody Welcome to the
game plan we’ve action-packed I’m pumped
today guys because we have the Federal
Reserve later we just got ADP private
sector jobs numbers at 8:15 a.m. at
10:00 we got the jolts numbers we’ve got
earnings from smci AMD Starbucks all
getting crushed here this morning and
you know what this does for me it gives
me opportunity and opportunity comes
when you wait and are patient so we’re
going to get right started here on the
day let’s take a quick shot to lton
right there good job man right over here
we go let’s jump into the action right
so first and foremost we’re going to go
here to the market Market blast I did do
a market blast this morning because I
want to cover the key data points that
have come out so down we scroll here and
by the way all of this information is
available on our website post it even
before I do this game plan and then I go
into in-depth analysis so number one ADP
private sector numbers came in at
192,000 that is stronger than expected
so again that’s a that’s a positive
number now whether or not it carries
over to the jobs number on Friday the
nonfarm payrolls we’re going to find out
expectations were for 183 so it wasn’t a
massive beat but it was a beat
nonetheless semiconductors are on fire
in terms of going down like a ship all
right we have semiconductors like super
micro computer missed Revenue numbers
now they actually beat earnings and
raised guidance and some people are
scratching their head saying well why in
on why on Earth did these stocks or why
did this stock collaps when they raised
Guidance the answer is very simple when
you have a company that goes up hundreds
of percentage points on the year on this
year alone and hey we’re only May 1st by
the way welcome to May 1st today but you
don’t have any error or potential like
you cannot slip up on any number to
justify those the the lofty stock price
and so that’s what happened they missed
on earnings and the problem too is is
that if you miss on earnings but then
you’re like oh but you know don’t worry
next quarter we’re going to do great our
Revenue we’re going to raise our
guidance it kind of builds a mistrust
right I mean if you if you miss on
earnings but then you’re like oh but
don’t worry we’ll show you the real
stuff in a couple months it just makes
investors feel iffy like really are they
really serious or they just raising
expectations to try to cushion the drop
in the stock today which is down about
10% all right Advanced Micro Devices
they honestly had a good quarter but the
stock has been so vertical that it’s
just hard to justify unless they come
out with something even better so they
raised their numbers on their chips
expectations for Revenue but it wasn’t
enough for Wall Street and this is the
thing you know I talked about this and I
warned you guys for so long and
congratulations if you heated some of
these warnings that these AI plays were
getting too lofty and that they were
going to come in at some point and now
we are seeing that come in Starbucks now
this one’s a big one for me usually
Starbucks isn’t a big mover on earnings
this is down 10% Plus on the day you
don’t see that very often folks down 10%
on the day the kicker here is they
really had horrendous numbers and I was
thinking about this and I said to myself
you know Starbucks so I know people that
literally will get their Starbucks and
avoid even eating like like Starbucks is
number one and if you’re seeing
Starbucks starting to struggle what does
that tell you about the underlying
economy well for me at least it tells me
that the consumer may be struggling now
is this partially due to China yes it is
but there’s an underlying element here
that there is a little bit of a stall
out in the consumer and we’ve seen this
from other other big names as well there
are other names that are struggling
we’re going to talk about a few of those
in just a minute Pinterest was one of
the positives here Pinterest rocketing
on earnings here that stock again if you
looked at that compared it to Meta Meta
was vertical it was like this right
vertical straight to the upside
Pinterest was like this it was kind of
down it was maybe off the lows a little
bit huge difference in what expectations
were because one stock was at a crazy
valuation up here and Pinterest was down
here lower expectations they were able
to beat those expectations the stock
went up beautifully if you watch trading
the close yesterday I gave you live a
short trade that I had set before I went
on trading the close with Tony that
nailed it and I actually made money on
the pullback we’ll talk about that in
just a minute okay enough of this guys
what I want to do now is we’re going to
do the spin we had a year of trading
view I believe so a year of trading view
up for grabs let’s do it right now and
don’t forget to email laon at verified
investing.com if you are the winner and
the winner
is see what we got here Robin Hood There
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congratulations Robin Hood uh reach out
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you all set up with a year of trading
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and many others so congrat
congratulations and thank you guys all
the sponsors for donating what you guys
have all right so what we’re going to do
now guys is we’re going to go right into
the charts and take a look so smci this
is the chart premarket of smci this if
you watched trading the close yesterday
it was one of the most amazing shows
because we watched this volatility here
and the volatility on on smci was
incredible it initially dropped then it
surged up to
$940 it then dropped to $720
and then it’s kind of petered out to 776
currently all right now one of the
amazing things and I was talking about
this on trading the close yesterday is
that we had a head and shoulders pattern
now I’m going to draw The Head and
Shoulders over this chart because I
don’t want to kind of take away what I
have here but basically what we had here
was a very classic Head and Shoulders
pattern I believe get my drawing tool up
here I believe that we had shoulder head
and shoulder and then breakdown right
here but the point here again is that
when we R TR Tred up there was a
neckline right through here okay we
retraced right up to
$940 and that was the level of the
retrace to the neckline of The Head and
Shoulders that happened after hours I
even you could see the frustration I
even wrote something on the screen that
I can’t repeat in words but the point
being is that the price went there and
then it began to collapse and it
literally went from $940 down to
$720 there so pretty wild stuff now
looking at this chart what do we have
you guys know this we have a classic
Channel channels are becoming more and
more important to me in swing trading
and day trading all right so number one
we have this high right here of this big
candle and then this low this low and
this low and then this high this high
and this high and this high so you very
clear and this is a perfect parallel
meaning I’m using the parallel Channel
drawer in trading view but what does
this tell me about a downside potential
Target over the next week or two if this
thing falls down into this lower level
down here which is right around
$600 that might be an opportunity for me
as a swing Trader now as a long-term
investor honestly I think it’s going
lower I do so like it’s not some
something that for me at least I’m going
to buy and hold for a long period of
time but I might be interested as a
swing trade right at that 600ish level
based on this channel and obviously that
would be a pretty lofty selloff or Hefty
selloff on the all right AMD let’s flip
over to AMD then we’ll get into some of
the other things the other earnings as
well we did have by the way MasterCard
reported today I’ll touch base on
MasterCard in just a minute because I do
think again it could be a warning about
the consumer last I check the stock was
down all right here’s your chart on
Advanced Micro look at that drop over
there on the pre-market and after hours
data yesterday it has recovered a little
bit off of its lows so we did see it as
low as about 144 it’s back to 1 almost
150 here you are seeing a small bid
coming into the market as investors are
buying the dip on some of these names
however what do we have here these are
my big levels all right I have the first
level and the second level they’re very
close together these are two levels that
I’m going to be watching over the next
little bit of time the first level again
it comes in right here there’s a little
flat top here right through here this is
more a day trading level for me so if it
pierced 140 140 would be my day trading
potential level for a quick scalp or day
trade trade now if we look at the next
level and I want to do this real quick I
want to erase this first one CU now
we’re moving away from the day trades
the swing trade level where I would be
semi-in interested is a much firmer
level notice how the swing trade level
goes back further the further a trend
line goes back the more powerful it is
in terms of its support levels so what
we’re doing here is we’re basically
taking this High here and you could even
make a case that it’s right in the same
range and we draw that through and look
at how price got above it came back then
it went up then it came back then it
finally went on this crazy run so
doesn’t it make sense that it wants to
eventually come back to that level so
we’re talking about I believe this level
is around 134 to
132 on the chart so a move down to 134
to 132 I might play this as a swing
trade okay so again there’s your kind of
level to watch for now yes the chart is
decently away but the the way these
markets move and the way these
semiconductors move this could be hit in
a day or two it really could if the
markets collaps like If the Fed crushes
the market today by the way I’m not I
I’ll go into that in just a second on my
fed predictions but I I’m not
necessarily in that camp that they’re
going to totally crush the market today
I think the Market’s factoring in a very
hawkish fed I think they’ll be hawkish
I’m not sure if they’re going to be as
hawkish as the market expects okay so
there’s your AMD level now we got to
look at Starbucks guys now Starbucks is
astounding because you like I said
historically you don’t see Starbucks
move 10% on earnings or greater and
that’s where we are right now look at
the chart it was just kind of going
along the last few days and then look at
the drop that we’ve seen if we zoom in
on this you can see a level that I’ve
been watching it’s right right below 178
now again the fact that we’re trading
along here it’s not a day tradeable
level anymore all right once you kind of
violate it like this I don’t want it
anymore I don’t want it right it’s not
that great so that’s the first thing but
either way it is trying to hold this
support level we’ll have to see how it
goes but again 1878 17 77 there is a
significant amount of support on
Starbucks going to the daily chart where
are we looking at this daily and by the
way where is that 177 to 178 level
coming from look at this I mean this is
pretty wild in fact I have to go to my
weekly chart right look at look at this
so again you know the reason why I
isolated down that 177 and 178 level is
because the trend line goes back to
2009 now my only issue here is that the
methodology that I teach says that the
more time times you hit a level the more
you have a potential of breaking down
well number one I mean how many times
did we hit over here right I mean so
many times then we went away from it
right and then we came back again and
then we came back again and then we came
back again and then we came back here
and we’re now trading right into it
again and I’m nervous that it’s going to
break down to be honest the way it’s
acting the way the negativity is on this
this could go a little bit lower now
where would be the next level well first
and foremost what kind of pattern do you
guys see here do you guys see a pattern
all right let’s do a little test case so
if you can get this pattern I give you a
gold star um obviously I won’t know but
if you can get this pattern then your
bonus for you the pattern here oops
there we go the pattern here is pretty
crystal clear it is a
shoulder Head and Shoulder okay so we
now have a head and shoulders which is
just a bearish pattern if it triggers
the neckline now the neckline check this
out guys so where is the neckline cuz
the neckline is not this Orange Line it
needs the neckline needs to go through
this Co low right here and up so let’s
do that right now and let’s break it
down so I’m going to erase this first
line and we’re going to put in the
neckline of The Head and Shoulders to
give us a break point and there’s no
doubt it’s broken but look at this is
this crazy or what so what you’re seeing
here is that if you put in your proper
neckline right and we put that in you
literally get this low here to this low
and you got the exact low going into
earnings which means based on today’s
gap down this baby is triggered and that
is not good either all right so again
Head and Shoulders triggered I could do
the measurements but it would be so
nasty that you guys wouldn’t even want
to know the price Target if this
actually did play out you would take
that amount of distance which is from
$125 down to let’s say $70 so that’s a
$55 move you this and again take this
with a grain of salt when these targets
are so close you know number one we
literally if we if we go into a
depression yes this would hit that’s
fair but you would basically take away
$50 here $55 here and you would take
that down right and uh you know
basically give you a $ 3035 price Target
on this chart now I don’t trade that way
because that’s a very long-term view but
what I do do is I say okay well what
could be my secondary level here and
what I would do is as I zoom out I take
a trend line and we put the trend lines
through those same lows but instead of
going through these upper lows I take it
through the covid low now we’re talking
about a potential swing trade level do
you guys see that so now what we’re
doing is we’re taking this low same low
that we started that previous one at
these lows here right along here but
instead we’re connecting it through the
absolute low of covid and it gives us
about a68 to $69 price Target so there
would be a level where I would consider
swing trading it I would also try to
find other factors that give me a
secondary Factor at that level that
always increases your probabilities for
Success okay all right um Pinterest real
quick guys Pinterest nice move on
earnings this was the level yesterday I
had on trading the close I got a short
off right up here and boom I took about
I think I took about I don’t know $150
on it or something like that it wasn’t
anything too huge but on 2500 shares it
was a nice little Payday for me in the
after hours there and again I wasn’t
even at my computer I put that order out
ahead of time time because again it was
like okay well if this has the craziest
move up maybe it’ll go here and it did
and then it would pull back and that’s
exactly what we got all right uh CVS CVS
guys getting crushed and again you could
look at Walgreens CVS they’re in trouble
right and this stock again is absolutely
annihilated in terms of a level real
quick here if we look at this what are
we looking at I got to zoom out a long
way here I have a couple levels isolated
down we’re looking at 56 to 52 56 is
first level 52 is second level this
pivot low to this pivot low those would
be my day tradable levels I’m not
interested in at this point today on a
swing trade I need to let the dust
settle there’s something called a
three-day rule which is when you have
these kind of crazier moves you don’t
mess around with it for 3 days because
there’s going to be Margin Call selling
institution selling lots of selling
going on that can drive it lower for a
few days I did mention MasterCard just
because again this one has to do with
the consumers the the stock is down on
the day but it is recovering a little
bit it’s not down a huge amount but
obviously we are seeing a little bit of
a recovery but any any weakness in these
stocks any sort of weakness in the
consumer is going to get seen in things
like MasterCard American Express and
these other names Starbucks another good
one in my opinion because people are so
addicted to their Starbucks okay on that
note guys what we’re going to do we’re
going to spin the wheel let’s do that
real quick here so as we bring it over
here we’re going to spin to see what
tomorrow’s winner will be and again
folks as always what I want you to to do
is share this this stream this this show
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you in just let us know and today look
at that the one minute scalpel Dr B’s
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incredible course folks people that have
taken this course have said holy cow the
amount of money I can make now based on
using the one minute chart and what I’m
seeing on the one minute chart is
incredible and my I myself never traded
the one minute until Dr B came in this
office and started trading with me and
now I look at it as well it’s that
powerful so congratulations to
tomorrow’s winner don’t forget share
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today all right guys we are back here
now first of all we’re going to look at
Bitcoin Bitcoin is in freef fall right
we were coming down to that first level
and I gave you guys this game plan
perfectly right we knew this was good
support we knew this here this here it
broke it hit support here then it
retraced to resistance then support as
of now it has broken that key level so
be aware that this has now broken the
key level of support and it’s now
vulnerable this chart is vulnerable to
going to 53 to
52,000 maybe even as low as 49,000 now
couple things that I’m going to watch so
I want to show you this right so there’s
some factor that I’m watching here on
the charts and if we do this and we just
kind of do a parallel and I think I
showed you this yesterday if we take a
parallel here to here and we drop it
down you do have a parallel that I’m
still focused on so there is a small
amount of Hope for Bitcoin sorry I
didn’t I didn’t let you guys see that
but there’s your parallel and if by
chance Bitcoin can recover and get back
above this line here at around
59,000 then you might be able to say
okay it’s holding the Downs sloping
parallel but again the vulnerability of
Bitcoin is increasing exponentially
right now as it’s breaking these key
levels and again by the way guys I did
cover my ethereum short today so again I
have one open position a Bitcoin short
guys which we’re basically flat on right
now um all of my other trades closed out
incredible gains for members in smart
money crypto so again congratulations to
those of you that are members on the
ethereum win today and again I have one
open position now a lot of people say oh
there’s so many open no there’s not
there’s there’s literally one open
position it’s the beauty of it you can
see every other trade I’ve taken since
the start of the service on the track
record at verified investing.com
verified baby all right so here we have
it right here there’s your break
potential breakdown can Bitcoin recover
my guess is if it’s going to recover
it’s going to be on the Federal Reserve
later today so watching that very
closely now let’s quickly look at
ethereum why did Gareth decide to get
out today why not let this thing go
lower well it was a risk reward
assessment right so what we see here is
that I had two trend lines that were
converging and a double bottom so we
have this trend line here which coming
which came across right to here to here
and we pierced it and then we had this
UPS sloping trend line from here to here
to here and right to here and it also
kissed price here and so is it is there
a chance that ethereum can go lower like
heck yeah there is heck yeah but as a
Trader and an investor you have to make
a determination on what is the chance of
you making a lot more money versus what
is the chance of you giving up your
gains and for me at least I’m generally
a little bit more of a conservative
investor and Trader I said you know what
we’ve had a move down from 3,300 and
change down to 2800 and change which is
where we got out I took my gains I said
thank you very much members
congratulations on the win another win
here let’s move on now if it flushes now
this is the kicker right some people
would say well if you’re out of the
short wouldn’t you go long the answer is
no because I have to be even more secure
I have to be more secure so now what I’m
going to look for is if ethereum pushes
down to this level here right somewhere
around
2600 then I might be interested in along
I will re-evaluate in real time for
members and guide them obviously but
there’s a place where you cover your
short because the risk reward is eh but
at the same time you’re not going long
like just because you’re covering a
short doesn’t mean you love it on the
long side it just means the risk reward
is now not the greatest to continue to
hold that and you want to pocket some
profits really important understanding
there all right guys man I wish I had
longer time to go on these gold is
getting a small bounce the gold move
honestly doesn’t even matter today right
now because on the FED today that’s
what’s going to matter 2 o’clock and by
the way don’t forget guys I will be live
here with Dr B trading the FED decision
analyzing the FED decision 1:50 p.m.
eastern time today going into the 2:00
announcement we’ll be live for about an
hour so make sure to check back you can
watch it just on the homepage website
verified investing.com silver same thing
nothing going on there oil’s a bigger
deal here guys oil may be breaking down
I talked about this yesterday again this
was a confirmed support it got its
bounce now it looks like it might be
violating this level we need to see if
it confirms below if it confirms below a
failed breakout Watch Out Below failed
breakouts when you have a breakout like
when you go like this and it fails it’s
like that often times so we could be on
the verge of a big move down in oil here
I’ve got to watch very closely I’ll keep
you guys updated in the game plan but
this is price action is also by the way
little bit of a head and shoulders right
here right so we have a little bit of a
potential Head and Shoulders as well
with a target of $74 down here on the
chart natural gas real quick guys n gas
again really disappointing every time it
pops up and makes a new High I mean at
least it’s making new Highs but man oh
man I’ll tell you it’s just like like
like pulling teeth to get this thing to
have a multiple move to the upside now
again it’s still in an UPS sloping move
but I still think it’s got to get there
yesterday again backed off a little bit
nothing new to report on that and lastly
coffee guys I’ll just cover a commodity
here today I have my commodity service
smart money Commodities we cover this
almost every day major support on coffee
here if it comes back in here which it
should that’s a retrace to the scene of
the crime basically $200 that is a money
spot in my opinion for a potential long
on on uh coffee all right guys I got to
get to my trading room lots to trade
today but always guys it is a pleasure
to guide you guys in the action here and
get you all set for the trade trading
day I love your comments don’t forget to
share this to your friends your family
post to us where you’ve shared it let us
verify make sure you get entered in to
win the one minute scalpel thank you
again watch me at 1:50 p.m. eastern time
today guys it’s going to be a big event
with the FED have a good one take care

Master Trader Gareth Soloway breaks down the charts and macro data like nothing ever available to the public. Usually kept for institutions, Gareth reveals tactics, trade levels and analysis that will blow your mind and make you a BETTER investor/trader. He covers stocks, commodities and crypto and will walk you through everything you need for the day to be a winning trader and investor. The Game Plan rockets past CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg in quality and actionable alpha. The show is a quick 15-20 minutes LIVE. Gareth is all about pure charts and data, no emotion. These are the keys to profitable investing and trading. Tune in at 9am ET Monday-Friday or if you can’t make it, be sure to watch the LIVE recording which posts immediately after the show airs! Others are making money and learning valuable trading tactics, don’t miss out!

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