GAME F**KING OVER!

GAME F**KING OVER!

how’s it going everyone it’s Sam some
people think it’s game over in this
market we just had Jerome pow speak we
had a big pump up now we’re starting to
actually fall back down I want to cover
what jome PO said also cover a couple
other things that are happening in the
market and show you what plan B just
said if you’re bearish on the market
you’re going to get some hopium towards
the end of this video uh that could make
you quite bullish uh even plan B’s like
very conservative numbers are well above
what a lot of people think are possible
so I’ll play you some of those clips
towards the end of the video I would I
would watch them because he is a very
well-respected analyst a lot of people
give him flak but he crushed it AT3 or
$4,000 Bitcoin he said we’re going up to
100,000 we made it up to 69,000 which
was very close when you consider the
orders of magnitude up to get there so
stay through to that if you don’t mind
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money as well now Bitcoin moved up to
59,00 and then fell back down to 571
within what is this half an hour or an
hour yeah within one hour we went down
another $2,000 so what exactly is
happening well obviously people are very
aggressive or being shaken out but at
the same time the whole stock market
moved up in the same pattern as well
obviously there’s one major thing
happening right now and I will say like
earlier at the beginning of the week I
said that this was going to be an insane
week for crypto whenever I say that
people give me a hard time because they
say hey every week is insane but I say
said no really this one is insane
because we have a lot of big earnings we
have jome pow speaking we have a lot
going on uh we had some numbers that
came out as well some economic numbers
so it has been kind of a crazy week I
mean Bitcoins down significantly this
week and we’ll show some interesting
charts here in a minute but today just
added some fuel to this fire some some
uh extra intensity uh some gasoline on
the fire so so what exactly happened
well Drome Powell spoke they kept rates
the same at 5.25 to 5.5 these are some
of the things that he said beginning in
June the committee will slow the pace of
decline of its security Holdings by
reducing the monthly Redemption cap on
Treasury Securities from 60 billion to
25 billion so they’re slowing the pace
of quantitive tightening that’s bullish
for the markets he also said I think
it’s unlikely the next policy move will
be a hike some people some some people
thought they were actually going to hike
today which is kind of crazy but he
still says hey we don’t think it’s going
to be a hike I do think that there’s
evidence that shows pretty clearly that
policy is restrictive and is Weighing on
demand so he’s saying yes we’re still
restrictive right this is still higher
basically than what we typically want to
keep our rates at but you know we have
to do it right now also someone asked
him will stag flation occur and he said
I don’t see the Stag or the flation
literally this is what he said this
isn’t a joke I’ve seen a lot of people
post about this so he’s like in a good
mood a pretty decent mood they also uh
well the government the US Treasury um
is going to start buying back
treasuries they say the US Treasury is
launching the first buyback program
since 2002 scheduled to start on May 29
2024 the program is designed to improve
the liquidity of the treasury market and
is expected to run for the next 3 months
or so so now what is this for it’s
basically a bank bailout and we talked
about this a bank recently collapsed and
I think the government knows that there
are more banks that are going to
collapse because a lot of people are
trying to move their money maybe and the
banks put them in long-dated low
yielding treasury bonds or treasury
notes uh maybe a year or two ago and now
they’re having a hard time getting
liquidity so they could you know they
could sell them for less than they’re
worth to get liquidity but then yeah
they’re kind of so because they’re
actually losing money on that trade so
the US Treasury is coming in to save the
day uh so you know this is essentially
uh some kind of quantitive easing so
yeah this mixed with some of the words
from Drome Powell made the market go up
now it’s coming back down why is that
who knows right uh we actually saw that
in the stock market as well not quite to
the same level right not kind of this
volatility but we saw the market pump up
and then kind of come down a little bit
now I still think we have to keep a
level head I mean look at this Bitcoin
is going to crash upwards
forever 40% 25% 40% 35% 35% 40 40 and
everyone says it’s over I was just
talking uh well I just made a video
yesterday
and so many people in the comment
section said it’s going to go down this
is the end of the bull market of 2024
some are tongue and cheek but some are
serious they think that this 23% we’re
seeing right now is the end of the bull
market it’s crazy right I actually just
had a a long meeting with someone that’s
been buying Bitcoin for years into
Collectibles into real estate into a lot
of different things and he’s thinking
endgame like where do I want to hold my
Bitcoin how do I want to use it and he’s
looking decades into the future you have
to realize there are a lot of people
that no matter what Bitcoin does the
cycle they’re not going to sell and I
know some people are going to sell some
people are going to take profit some
people aren’t but there are people that
don’t care about these fluctuations
these 20% drops 25% drops like they they
take money from their businesses and
they buy Bitcoin they don’t care the
price because they realize that this is
going to a million
dollars maybe higher so just keep that
in mind
when maybe you’re focusing over the 10
20% move there are people thinking
longer term there are people thinking
generationally what this will mean so
try to keep that long approach that
long-term approach on the market and I
also just want to show you someone that
is very bullish Plan B first I want to
play uh the bit he he just posted this
video by the way I want to first play
the bit where he talks about where he
thinks Bitcoin could go this cycle and
then we’ll talk about whether he thinks
that maybe the Cycle’s over uh and what
are the chances of that happening like
are we back into the bare market right
are we in distribution phase versus the
bull market so we’ll talk about that in
a second despite this a bit lower uh
closing price this month Bitcoin is
still 36% up year to date and also
Bitcoin is at the haling because this
month is the last uh blue
dot um because it’s month
zero here and from next month may we
will count down again to the next
halfing in 2028 but this month is the
last Blue Dot and every blue dot last
Blue Dot every halfing has been at this
gray stock to flow model price so that’s
very nice
um also the average price is something
that we can calculate at the moment it’s
34,000 and that’s a little below of
course the um
55,000 that the 2019 original stock flow
model predicted but it’s ballpark okay
it’s the same order of magnitude and and
don’t forget in 2019 the Bitcoin price
was below
4,000 so
um also note that the average Bitcoin
price was above the so tolow model price
in the cycle before the last cycle the
2016 2020 cycle so um I updated the
model uh parameters did not change much
uh 2024 2028 Target is still around 500k
on average so uh also note that the
error always goes down um after the
halfing so there is a halfing the model
value goes up and it of course it takes
some time the Bitcoin price has a lag to
catch up with the model value it’s every
halfing it’s the same it will also be
true this halfing in my opinion so we
see the error already going down it will
go down again because the price will not
be 500k of course uh in May it will
slowly over the months uh go into the
that model price so what’s next for
2024 I repeat the same as last video it
is inevitable that we reach 100K in my
opinion because minor
Revenue has to recover and Mining
Revenue because of the hall thing did
half um all the miners the entire
industry has seen its Revenue drop by
50% and it has to recover usually last
three halfings it did recover within 4
to 8 months so that’s well within this
year 2024 and the only way for mining
Revenue to recover is that price doubles
so at estimating from current price of
60k we should be well above 100k this
year then 2025 I think the top will be
then because historically the top of the
bull market after the has been after the
halfing and and about one year one and a
half year after the halfing so that’s
that brings us in
2025 and the big question of course is
um will the price follow diminishing
returns um and I think a price of well
around 200k for the top uh will be in
line with diminishing returns or will
price indeed follow the stock to flow
model again and will there be
exponential returns again you know my
answer I think stock to flow is still
valid I think we will have exponential
returns at least until 50% adoption
um and we’re now at well somewhere
between 1 and
10% uh so far away from that 50%
adoption I think exponential returns are
what we’re going to see let’s move on to
the next bit does Plan B think that
we’re out of the bull market are we just
in a distribution phase is all hope
lost the Bitcoin Market cycle and
everybody was watching for that red dot
if it would turn to Yellow it didn’t not
so the uh the bull market continues I
know the emotions are very different I
know some the bull markets
over uh already but that’s exactly why
we use models to fight against emotions
and the onchain transactions that this
Market cycle indicator is based on the
onchain transactions signal that we are
still in a bull market despite this
little dip and note by the way that
here’s a dip as well
here’s a dip as well it’s very
similar here’s a dip here’s a dip so red
doesn’t mean there won’t be dips in fact
uh 25% dips are quite normal in a boot
market so better get used to it that
might be more uh but the good thing is
red will continue in my opinion now who
knows by the time you’re watching this
where bitcoin’s price is it doesn’t
matter whether we’re at 60,000
70,000
55,000 in my mind I’m taking a
time-based approach right there’s going
to be a bit of price approach too but in
my mind I’m not looking at selling right
now you know whether the price goes up
to 70 80 90,000 right I’m not selling my
Bitcoin right now why is that because
historically we’ve seen prices go up at
certain times in the cycle and it’s very
hard to tell the exact price so yeah
hopefully you’re in a similar boat
whether whether you’re just focused on
the timing of it or whether you’re just
in accumulation mode hopefully you have
a level head and you have some kind of
approach to this bull market I think
that’s really important if you don’t
already know okay where am I going to
sell or when am I going to sell you
should jot that down and if it’s hey I’m
not going to sell anything I’m going to
write it up I don’t care the price we
get to and I don’t care how far how far
we fall down because I want to take
loans against this in eight or 10 years
right if that’s your goal if you want to
just hold on to it forever and your only
job is to buy as much as possible and
you’re not going to time the market
great then you’re set for the next Bull
Run but if you’re someone that knows
that you’re going to want to sell or
you’re going to buy too much at the top
or something like that like set
something in place write it down as
arbitrary as it feels or as stupid as it
feels just write that down because it’s
important to keep a level head and some
people won’t some people will freak out
like when we fall down inevitably we
will have another 20% drop at some point
whether we go up to 100,000 first or
150,000 or we fall down to 50,000 right
we’re going to see another 20% drop and
you need to make sure that you know how
to handle it that you wrote down your
rules at a time what you where you are
more
levelheaded right so let me know your
thoughts on all this underneath the
video again you can check out the links
to Marx and to coin W underneath if you
want that extra trading bonus you can go
over to coin w thank you so much I will
see you in the next one bye

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