Bitcoin pump, cycle low and bull market back? (my crypto buy signal)

Bitcoin pump, cycle low and bull market back? (my crypto buy signal)

all right guys we are back hope you had a great weekend let’s dive into Bitcoin I’ve got nine cryptocurrencies to get through we’re looking at the cycle low is that in yet because of the pump that we’ve seen over the last few days and the higher low that’s been forming on strong old coins your leaders for the cycle compared to the laggards so I’m going to compare those after uh the Bitcoin analysis we’ve got traditional markets to get through is they had a pretty strong close at the end of last week and of course that all ties into our macro analysis looking at how the bull market is continuing on meanwhile there are Corrections with in that bull market so you’re back with myself here Jason pazo your home of macro cycle analysis thanks again for your support the non nonsense titles and thumbnails are I guess doing their trick you’re smashing up the like button getting us close to 4,000 likes a video some views have dropped off but I guess that is just all part and parcel of where we sit in the current cycle you don’t get the same s of Engagement as what we do at the peak so I hope we’re all using that to our advantage some good times to be getting in that sort of 50 to 60k region for Bitcoin I’ve got plenty of um or two particular price targets to look at in today’s video so without further Ado let’s crack on here lots to get through the US Stock markets had a very good close at the end of last week breaking above their previous top and also the 50% level so let’s get this little shortterm one out of the way for the moment that is is a good start it doesn’t mean that we’re there yet cuz it’s only one day you typically want to see about 2 to 3 days closing above resistance levels and for the S&P 500 so far it’s one we’ll see how we go by the uh middle of this week so around Wednesday to see if we can get around three closes above 5150 uh the NASDAQ has also done similar uh readings here similar patterns breaking above the pre previous resistance a nice daily close there a little stronger than the S&P 500 nonetheless it’s pretty much going through that pattern of the correction higher low and now trying to break past resistance to establish a new higher low base all part of the mega bull market the everything bull market as we’ve been covering here for um what since the lows there October 2022 if you guys have been around on the channel since these bottoms you know I’ve gone over that why that was the reason why all of those uh negative times were a fantastic entry opportunity so in terms of where it sits the strength there we’ve down 8 and half% now roughly about 4% down from the all-time high so again uh looking at the S&P it’s been that so far single digigit correction that’s typically what we see in Bull markets there are the occasion of a double digit correction from the top to that low Point uh they don’t happen all that often and it usually catches a lot of people off guard because when the market starts to fall they all hope for lower prices and typically those lower prices don’t show up and then they start chasing their tail again when the market begins to rise so ideally I’d want to see this thing back above around 5200 points to really start to consolidate the low being in the reason for that is you got lows here so these little swing bottoms there were more swing bottoms on the way up to that final Peak and should it get above that and consolidate well it’s not guaranteed as no one knows what happens on the black side of the chart the right hand side here however that would be a pretty strong case that this is the low and the stock markets have seen their lows for this particular pullback your April 19th low same deal as I said for uh the NASDAQ as well once that shows up so we’re at 18,000 points here for the NASDAQ again pretty good looking chart uh the Dow Jones also looking similar here you got the higher lows forming the Breakout but it’s just underneath that 50% level at 38,900 so overall everything’s moving the way it should in the uh in the stock markets we’re not seeing any significant breakdowns there’s always going to be two sides of the story I don’t need to get into any arguments here that people are expecting bigger breakdowns this year in 2024 again doesn’t seem like it’s it’s likely at this stage pretty interesting data here quick recap on this one this bull market is still quite young so if you want to upset a be plenty of them still out there not as many as there was in 2022 mind you um some people still think there are I don’t get the how they see that the fear in 22 and early well first half of 2023 out of this world it was just fear nonstop which is always almost always the best time to be getting into the market it’s such a crowded trade I love that that saying it was such a crowded trade last year of shorts and the market put in a mega higher low so what we can see now from the bull market is they typically last longer than many people anticipate because they still got this memory that the market is going to collapse uh tell tell them this so you want to upset a bear tell them this bull markets are this bull market is extremely young not even 19 months old yet should it end now this would be the quickest and weakest bull ever it’s possible I don’t think it’s going to happen from the data that I’ve presented here to you what for for months and years now uh but again at the end of the day everyone do what you do and trade how you want to trade that’s how it makes how that’s how these markets are made up the average bull lasts nearly five years and gains more than 50% this one is 43% and just over 18 months old so pretty startling evidence here going back to the 1950s at the end of the day you guys do you I want to be on the side of my own analysis and my own data because that’s how I’m trading my own money the election year uh still looking relatively good we’ve covered this many many times just looking at that cycle progressing through we’re into the first week of May now so May 6th and you can see from these readings from these lines here that we’ll start to climb out of this probably in June when I say climb out of it I’m looking at the stock markets here for some reason I see comments from people thinking this is Bitcoin this is the stock market it says it right there S&P 500 so that’s what I’m looking at with the stock markets for the US they’ve got a little bit to go maybe in the next month or late this month would start to climb into new alltime highs we’ll have to wait and see whether we get a rejection here form a higher low again and start to climb higher okay at end of the day the macro looking like we’re going to new all-time highs in 20124 that’s what I’m most confident in not saying that you have to be as well US dollar has had another day down so it ended the week lower last week you look on the daily chart relatively weak but it’s still holding up above the previous resistance so potential support here at 104.8 Us doll had a much weaker week than it has done for quite some time that volume is very very high compared to anything in this entire it’s not necessarily accumulation but consolidation so this period of the last year and a few months uh this has been the highest weekly volume and it even beats all the Bears and all the bull weeks so all the down weeks all the up weeks it’s the highest week since this final collapse here is it over yet no we need to see a break of the low here and this low and then a close underneath those tops that would probably bring a little more ease to bitcoin and crypto currencies as well because you’re starting to see an Ease on the US dollar so keep a very close eye on this chart that’s been the first little sign here but it could find some strength here you know test it one more time lot longer to go with this one here with the US dollar so over to bitcoin and cryptos here are our net ETF flows we had the biggest outflow for ETFs nearly 10,000 for May 1st essentially I believe that was a low we’ll get to that in a minute and then by Friday we had one of the biggest days not the biggest day you know you got a lot of big days on that move up but the biggest day since the all-time high so I guess that’s a positive there but I don’t use this you guys know that follow the charts because this essentially tells you well you had the biggest day of outflows let’s have a look at the the volume here on the daily chart here at that low point so how do you want to use that in your trading up to you you got the biggest outflows at the bottom doesn’t that tell you oh maybe things are going to get worse and they didn’t so just follow a chart and by following a chart let’s take a look at the 50% levels and resistance levels now for Bitcoin on the short term last week we were looking right here at 62k so that 619 62k as a possible resistance level now the beauty with the 50% so this is Gan analysis the 50% level does not mean that it has to hit resistance and get rejected there’s no 100% if the market slices through 50% like it did on Friday that typically suggests a lot of strength now we’ve seen three daily closes above 50% and so the 50% level although it can be support and resistance a lot of the time in the market if you get that signal that it slices through that can be a pretty good sign you can add that to your plan that we might see further upside so that now that you’ve got this understanding of strength and weakness a slice through that resistance pretty good signs for that strength now so again let’s wait and see because that’s the short term the short-term slice through you had a follow through you had Saturday following up you had Sunday’s uh data following up and early into Monday now an hour in and we’re starting to see a little bit of a climb here so not getting too excited there because when we look to the longer term time frame so it’s it’s like trying to get the wheels in motion here I like to look at um Sports analogies you’re not going to go from uh waking up to sprinting or doing some sort of massive workout without warming up and so the smaller movements in the market are the warmup so we got the warmup here so far looking good the warm- Up’s working out for the Bulls at least we’re seeing that that movement to the upside the break of 62k uh now we’re testing the next 50% level that’s at 64600 so roughly around the $65,000 you can see how many times it’s been support then resistance along the way a lot of bars in here trying to test that and then get rejected so a close above those levels would then take us to the all-time high which if this is the Low Bottom in May then that would be a pretty good start to the consolidation to then get to those higher prices so so far we looked at a quarter 1 correction so we’ve got that quarter 1 correction now we’re into quarter 2 potential low forming for this correction which would then take us out into quarter three potentially a break of all-time highs that could come earlier obviously just wait and see we don’t need to be wetted to that scenario that it has to happen in quarter 3 we just want to look at what’s going on with the price chart here because at the end of the day I don’t know what’s going to happen I’m just using the strength and the weakness on the chart following the support and resistance and reading it like a book that works for me so hopefully you’re also learning something from that if you are smash it up let’s go 4,000 likes let me know in the comments section how you are using this analysis okay so so far we’re seeing some signs of strength in the short term that is yet to follow through in the medium term and to get to that medium term we need that break above 65k or 65.2k and then the 67k because they were the previous tops that would be pretty solid consolidation level for Bitcoin to then break to those all-time highs so is the low in it’s looking okay for that there’s no longer term confirmation we’re looking for a longer term low therefore you need longer term confirmation pretty straightforward so for that longer term confirmation we’re looking at May or June for this bottom just looking at the uh the data that we had gone through in great detail in Friday’s video so a good 10 15 minutes going through all of that data which I won’t repeat here but essentially May June has been a reasonable time for a turn May has not had a turn but June has had four turns so four monthly swing bottoms even last year had a June turn 20122 had a significant June turn as well do we get it again in 2024 or it comes to May we’ll wait and see we’ve had about 48 days down now so it’s all lining up relatively well in my opinion for a quarter two turn which could then see some consolidation before we break to Fresh highs I just want to go back to this one quickly because we can look out to June and July and we’ve seen it many times before you know the market get excited and then depressed and then they sort of switch between you’re right you’re wrong all this sort of BS I’m just looking at this level here sort of 69,000 there’s your 69,000 nice simple line there what if we’re to run up test that come back down put in a higher low that forms in June so not the not breaking this low here but just a high low and then start to work its way higher again that could be a Poss possibility we could just run straight up hold above these levels and then break out sooner I’m looking at all of these scenarios because at the end of the day I don’t know what happens on the black side but I’m just keeping my eye on potential patterns that could form that could all be bullish the only difference here is in terms of the speed to break to a new all-time high if you’ve got your position you don’t need to worry it’s just I don’t know fun to have a look at how we can uh anticipate the next Market movements so that’s for BTC which would then lead me over to altcoins so I want to get to altcoins because many have been putting in high lows and they look like they want to break to new fresh prices sooner rather than later now I want to come back to to this data here as well but um you know I’ve said altcoins we got nine to get through here is our altcoin market cap alltime High well sorry the cycle high for now alltime high is way back here this is the total cryptocurrency market cap without Bitcoin eth and stable coins uh it’s an exclusive indicator that we put together at Tia link to that is in the video description it’s my shield for this video and if you do want to get that free report it’s coming out in 24 36 hours again link to that is right down here plenty to have a look at I’ll get back into this now the higher low for altcoin seems to be forming there you go right there 19th of April posted about that because we could see many altcoins looking like they wanted to put in higher lows unfortunately some people got into the crappier ones but we want to try and get out of that I want to show you these charts in a moment and I’m not going to name any names you can do the reading for yourself but I’m not going to name any names okay so here is the higher low so far last week was a pretty decent week for the altcoin market cap so far overall in the macro sense we’ve got high lows Al together and 400 420 billion is still that support level for this market in terms of the shorter term now if we go to the 50% level from low to high you can see that it’s tested at week one week two here uh we haven’t got there yet maybe we’ll get there this week to try and test 530 billion I like that as a next com next confirming price target for the altcoin market cap to get to 530 580 billion that would probably be a good consolidating area trading range to then push higher so I think if you got there that would be a safer level for altcoins many don’t want to wait that long because you have to pay the price of altcoins going up to give you that confirmation that they’re going to be strong so with that in mind this still looking relatively healthy at the moment let’s not name any names but you can do the looking yourself because I just want to focus on the price chart again focus on the price chart and those higher lows that have been forming as we talked about from X many strong altcoins look like they’re putting in higher lows in the case here of this altcoin that I’m not naming there is your uh we had that collapse day 12th and 13th of April that for Bitcoin look like these two days uh sorry these two days here Bitcoin ended up putting in lower lows but some of these altcoins did not so I’m going to look at them on USD charts and on bitcoin charts here are your lower low uh your first dump to those lows about a 58% drop you got the higher low forming at the moment and now it’s coming back to test this other high that was put in through April which broke those previous tops so the 12th and the 13th Market got back to that tested those tops put in another higher low and now it’s coming back to try and test those tops this could go on for weeks maybe months but the the point of is we want to see higher lows beginning to form and then consolidating above 50% the same rules that I’ve talked about forever keep following that up so not naming any names here is one chart to have a look at because at the end of the day you didn’t have any of this you couldn’t see this and you couldn’t see this on pointing to the price and the name you just want to look at the structure of the chart so far that structure looks better and you’ll see the difference with the weaker stuff this one also looking stronger at the moment higher lows forming getting above 50% for now reasonable volume coming up uh you can see it break and test that top again of the 12th of April so good signs there for this particular chart not naming any names yep I’m going through it again there’s another option another option here this one looks weaker but still holding above 50% you can see these were the 12th and 13th dates and it broke lower so that is a weaker position however overall it’s still holding above 50% just has more work to do than the other two so we starting I think I got some other strong ones here but it’s starting to look slightly weaker in this sense you can see that that’s lower than where this one was so you can see that was a high low for the same dates and that same period this one here now is against a Bitcoin chart which would mean that it might be even stronger moving forward however if you do zoom out then it’s got a lot of work to do a lot of lot of work to do plenty of highs from the previous cycle however doesn’t matter you’ve got some higher lows here it just might not be as might not put in as big a gains as something that doesn’t have um all of this previous data this is like all previous baggage of a relationship that people in 2021 and 2022 had with this coin this is relationship baggage and some of them just will sell out when it gets to these previous levels whereas with some other coins and I’m not suggesting this one here I’m just looking at the chart so forget that if I can block that for you block this here if you had a chart like this then there’s less previous baggage so something that hasn’t been through the mixes of so many partners how’s that how’s that one for the guys anyway looking further forward another one here that um has done pretty well and has broken past a lot of the previous baggage of previous Cycles here so you’ve got some higher lows forming on those dates that we have covered breaking past those levels and these are the previous Cycles here there’s 2021 down to 2022 and breaking past these levels here so less baggage to get through not looking too bad this one’s got a lot of baggage a lot a lot of baggage from the previous old all-time high it been hit it and quit it many many times before but many are still married to this coin for other reasons it could still do it it’s got some slight higher lows here but it’s got a bit of work to do and plenty of work to the upside so it can still go up it probably will still go up just has a lot of hard work to do this one’s a fresh one for this cycle so not as many have taken this one out to the dance however it doesn’t look as strong here so it’s it has been able to get back to that 12th and 13th date with some strong volume at these lows but it’s just it’s just struggling here if this is able to hold that’s going to be a stronger coin but if it breaks down from this level so that’s at about 15,000 Satoshi because there should be another zero there then that’s not going to look too great because it’s just it’s just lining up to be a bit weaker there we’re getting further into the weaker stuff there is that low of the 12th and the 13th and this has just continued to Trend down there’s going to be all of fundamental reasons for this and fundamental reasons why they should be stronger I honestly don’t care the point being is the chart is going to tell you the story the story at the moment is is much weaker it’s it’s just so clear when you look at the chart let’s look at uh the chart of something stronger here you got higher lows forming and it’s breaking through now meanwhile this other chart is still heading down doesn’t mean it can’t come back later have a big change of heart and things go great but for now with all the data we have this is still weaker than those other charts and finally something that caught our heart last week and for whatever reason gave it all back it’s another chart right here so it attempted it it got back to this 12th and the 13th date you can see how are these are lining up with these altcoin charts they get back to this 12th and 13th dat they test them and then they start to come back to test the um the demand in the market so the supplies come in and pushed it back down so the next test is will that demand come back when it tests these lower prices it’s just a supply demand game and all we’re trying to do is just read this chart now if there is going to be some demand come back for this um whatever then we will start we should start to see this chart go up but as the history has shown for this chart there is not a lot of love for this despite the amount of love that many online like to give it so I guess the Insiders don’t give it love and they just keep dumping on all of the clueless I don’t know retail that keeps buying up this dog from some of the bad let’s have a look at some of the the more loved big name cryptos for this cycle and at the moment got a higher low or an equal low forming here for this one against its USD chart and now it is testing higher prices again let’s put on some lines and you’ve got a break above 50% you are still underneath the 12th and the 13th so it’s got a bit of work to do here against the US dollar chart chart however on its BTC chart not looking so bad compared to some of the altcoins that we have looked at so you got some of the strong stuff and it is getting back towards this 12th and 13th date where that real big collapse happened now put in a higher low when Bitcoin put in a lower low so that’s another good sign there and a nice break above 240,000 up to this top here around 250,000 would be ideal 50% right at 260,000 okay so that’s a look at those higher lows forming above 50% of the the range from the low to the top so still healthy some higher lows are forming now and ideally as I said around above 240 would be that safer entry point it’s at a higher price so that’s the price you pay for the confirmation of strength links in the video description guys thanks again smashing up the likes sharing it with friends I’ll see you on X or maybe out in the surf so today I managed to squeezing 10 altcoins for you is that Bitcoin cycle low in so far so good some pretty good early signs at the moment especially breaking past 625,000 with a few days close above that you can see the price resistance levels above that we’ve covered now around 65 and 69k are going to be the big ones to watch over the coming days lows for altcoins well enough said the analysis the data shows that those higher lows are forming will they hold that’s the big question now stay tuned to the channel and I’ll be back here on the next video till then take care and peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, SP500, weekly analysis
08:00 Bitcoin, ETF, ST
12:40 Bitcoin monthly
16:00 Altcoin market analysis

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews