Bitcoin, is the cycle over? Macro price analysis, US BTC ban explained

Bitcoin, is the cycle over? Macro price analysis, US BTC ban explained

all right guys welcome back to the channel we got three big things to cover in today’s video the first being the potential Banning of Bitcoin and crypto custody the second the end of the Bitcoin cycle should this occur probably not going to be great things for BTC and the third is of course the death of cryptocurrency and I don’t use that term lightly or as clickbait there is a few people who are getting a little bit triggered but I guess that is to be expected especially when you look at things as a death and a rebirth for whatever reason they’re a little bit fragile in their emotions so we got three massive things as I said uh to cover in today’s video first I just want to say thanks very much for all of your support especially in these quiet times of the market smashing up the like button and of course subscribing to the channel for our non-nonsense titles and thumbnails lots of big warnings and breakings and all this sort of stuff going on out there but not here not for now unless the algorithm wants us to do it again so first up is the Banning of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency custody uh by Financial uh firms so if they going to custody your Bitcoin and crypto what Joe Biden’s Administration is saying is that they would veto legislation to allow these Financial firms to custody Bitcoin and crypto this happened uh just a few hours ago actually you got some statements here from the US it’s plased over X and of course it’s making the rounds now with the possibility of Joe not winning this next presidency so on and so forth obviously I’m not a US citizen at the end of the day I don’t care about the politics whatsoever Bitcoin and crypto will do what Bitcoin and crypto do what they are meant to do and they’ll continue to trade regardless of whichever president gets in at the end of the day and it also reminds me of the days when China was Banning Bitcoin but this leads to a a deeper issue which potentially happens at the end end of the real estate and economic cycle as my good friends here at property share market economics have also pointed out now some of you might remember if you were here last cycle in 2022 Phil and I did a talk or mostly Phil doing the talk and me doing the answers here about the government stealing your crypto after 2026 just a possibility as what a similar thing happened with gold nearly 100 years ago the government came after gold and stole everyone’s gold you can put it whichever way you want but I think most of us here would agree that essentially they banned holding gold and they stole it from everyone at a price that is just absolutely ridiculous this might have a 1% chance I don’t know I’m not the government but if you’re potentially starting to see things like this with if it even it comes through uh comes to fruition that this um legislation comes through and then the Biden Administration vetos it so for financial uh services or financial firms to custody your Bitcoin and crypto and say no it’s not happening no one’s allowed to have this well that might start The Snowball Effect for future Bannings in the future we’ll play a little bit of more attention to this as time progresses but not to get too worried about this right now it’s just talk at this point in time nonetheless it is still a possibility that the government could ban the holding of Bitcoin and cryptos within Financial firms of course this could be seen as a negative for the majority because that means there would be a a loss of access to bitcoin and crypto for the masses so that’s the first thing covered off the Banning of Bitcoin and crypto custody more needs to come from this but that is what the Biden government has said now to the second thing second thing we’re looking at is the macro analysis the macro cycle here for BTC and areas of specific importance when it comes to the price levels here for BTC as always with social media whether it’s YouTube or X there’s always going to be a number of bearish claims a number of bullish claims those that think the market is getting ready to Pump from here and those that think the market is getting ready to collapse and the Cycles all over I’m in the middle in the sense that I think there is still more time to go here but I don’t think the cycle is over uh and with that said if there is more time here then I don’t think this is getting ready to pump by the end of this week or next week I don’t think we’re about to see new all-time highs uh in such short amount of time but let’s first look at the longer term outlook here just looking at the monthly chart here for BTC I’ve got the monthly up I’ve got our 50% levels and I’ve got our swing chart here so the yellow indicator on the chart I’m looking at Major 50% levels in price now I’ve got the monthly swing here uh from the low in August to the top in March and the 50% level’s at $49,000 so the main simple thing here that I’m going to look at is if the market and this case Bitcoin and this uh specific analysis can be used across across any Market you can use it across uh stock markets you can use it across Commodities in this case I’m using it on BTC typically if you’re going to see a test of the 50% level absolutely fine sometimes you’ll get a break of the 50% but a close back above the 50% level uh on a longer term time frame like on the monthly chart and I’ll show you in just a minute the example here in 2021 but what you don’t want to see is a breakdown of the 50% and then retest underneath the 50% because there is a far higher probability that that is going to lead to further downside all right so some uh examples going back to the last previous last cycle anyway 2017 cycle leading into that Peak I think Bitcoin is following this cycle most closely now in in in our current cycle but that’s beside the point right now we’re just looking at the 50% levels I’m looking at it in relation to our monthly swings so you’ve got the move from the low of roughly 150 odd bucks up to $750 this took several months uh to be precise low to this top about 17 months guess what we’re in right now we’re in about 17 months from that low in November to where we are now 18th month we just finished our 17th month and the top was in the 16th month so that’s where we currently sit let’s go back to this example here now into this top the correction came almost dead on 50% the low there was 479 the 50% level was 478 pretty damn close using a 50% tool absolutely phenomenal so what happened it tested it bounced closed higher good Signs Now using the low again there is your next correction didn’t get too close to that 50% which is just showing the sign of strength and from that point you can see that the market uh rallied even harder than what it had done for the first half of the cycle basically this whole period you can see that it still trying to climb but then as you get to the end of the cycle the angle really does uh increase quite substantially so you get to that point still no correction to the 50% or break underneath the 50% the next monthly swing top same deal the next correction I’m going to use September here uh because there was a pretty significant mooved to the downside again didn’t get to the 50% now we get to the top the top of the market December was a top January was a correction January not the worst thing in the world it tested the 50% for the first time since the beginning of the cycle it closed above it so still looking strong but the rally in February uh failed clo uh and went underneath the 50% quite substantially did close above the 50% again so there was still the possibility that you could see higher prices here but it had come back a long way compared to anything previously in that cycle so that’s already the um the first sign of weakness or or macro sign of weakness here there’s plenty of signs in the shorter term but in terms of macro analysis that is a big key that you’re seeing a huge correction now come March you had a lower top and then the market closed underneath that 50% again it attempted the 50% almost dead on that you can see $9,000 962 and the 50% was 9917 so in terms of a percentage just under half a percent so the accur accuracy of this tool can be quite significant moving on from that you saw the lower swing top hit the 50% and then the market collapsed from that point that took another several months for it to end so now that we’re done with that example with how important you can see this 50% level let’s use it in the next cycle now we hadn’t got it out of the um alltime High yet and so you typ typically going to see bigger pullbacks while the market is still range trading it was basically trading between a pretty big level here you know your single uh thousands and then all the way up to 134,000 again going to the next monthly swing top not much happened here but again that was below this so I’m not looking at that as strongly the major one I want to look at here is the top here in April you can see we had a really big run up using the low the correction that came in did break from the 50% on The Daily they were close cles under the 50% but once we get back to the monthly we still had closes above the monthly uh for the monthly above the 50% level at $34,000 so it was above it it was sometimes it can be quite close to it but the main thing here is that we saw a higher low form and then the market charge away from that point granted it only climbed to 70 so basically a doubling in a bit from there for Bitcoin but nonetheless the bull market was still on and there was a lot of altcoin gains to be had at that time so the 50% level holds again now we take it to the entire cycle and we remember what happened back in this cycle here back in 2017 there was a test there was a close above it another test another close above it and then it got rejected close underneath the 50% and then collapse so this time a test of the 50% a a couple of closes above we had a rally into a lower swing top came back to the 50% and was not able to hold on that following month and then you see the collapse from that point so a breakdown of the 50% level a breakdown of the monthly swing bottom and the rest is history from there essentially going into the bare Market low we got into that cycle low from the breaking of the 50% so now that we understand the importance of the 50% to on the monthly chart so basically taking a longer term look here with BTC we can apply that to this cycle now first up you might notice that I’m not using the cycle low but I’m using the uh the higher low before the market broke out the reason for this is that it allows us to get that closer or slightly closer to the market price um should this start to break down that price would come out at $49,000 that also lines up with the ETF top that happened in January and also lines up with the March top the lower swing top which is very very important before Bitcoin collapsed into the um the major part of the bare market so you’ve got a lot of price resistance which could po potentially become support now I’m not for one moment suggesting that it has to get to this price we’re just looking at Price targets or essentially price support should this break down then you could potentially consider that the cycle is over now we have one more price Target to look at take the 50% all the way back to the cycle low so we have the current cycle top and the cycle low that price is at 44,600 again you could see through December and through January that although it did break past that price point there roughly 44k 44 A2 the closes were underneath that so this area of mid to high 40s would be a very critical level if Bitcoin was to break down from that you would then consider that the cycle would be over now we’re looking at macro ranges here which would seem ridiculous because that’s a long way from where the current price is it’s about a 30 odd per move to the downside from where we are and most would say well that’s too far away I need to get out well before then that’s true but then you run the risk of the possibility of the market uh bouncing and then coming back from those levels so that is also a possibility that’s the difference when it comes to using macro analysis or shortterm if you start to use too short of a time frame then you run the risk of having to get in and out all the time it’s entirely up to the individual Trader or investor there’s no right or wrong you just choose what works best for you on the flip side to that which can be very very help helpful to save you money is if this is to break down from those levels use this one very wisely and have a plan to get back in of course if it is to break down from that then you could potentially consider that this is not a great buy the dip opportunity potentially consider that that is not a great buy the dip opportunity I’m repeating it because typically what happens when you get to those points like what happened in the previous Cycles essentially you’ve got the idea that this is the best time to buy the dip because it’s the cheapest it’s been it’s now 30k 35 40K and it was 74 but of course if that is to occur then that would mean that breaking the 50% at least according to the rules it means that there is a high probability not a guarantee but a high probability that that move is over and that you have to wait for the next reaccumulation wherever that might be which could mean that it has to go lower again consolidate and then push higher that is a worst case scenario that’s the idea that’s what I put in the title this is the worst case I don’t think that is going to happen at this stage because we don’t have any signs that it’s going to happen but nonetheless you have to be prepared for anything like that now let’s move back to something more positive let’s say and we just look at this 50% level roughly 50k there is all the chance that Bitcoin still tests 50 bounces back and then gives us another fresh High I think that’s a far higher probability that we are either at the low at 56k or there’s not much more to go in it between that sort of high 40s low 50s area I don’t know if it’s going to get there there hasn’t been enough signs to say that of course if we were to breakdown uh from the the shorter term here we are we’re sitting at the 50% level now you can see that support on the short term a breakdown of that and then you sort of get back to 59k well then you probably got a better chance of hitting those low to mid-50s but for now there’s no sign of that so for now 562k is the low so I’m a macro bull I think this cycle still got further to go the beauty about where we currently sit is that there is time for consolidation and then a retest of those higher prices later in the year so until that breakdown occurs I’m not worried I’m not worried about any sort of Candlestick signals I’m not worried about any of these other signals that uh potentially come up around the traps around YouTube around X this is the style of analysis that I use I don’t look at other styles of analysis I want to focus on my craft my craft is using Gan analysis once you start to bring in too many different types of analysis this guy said this this chart said this then it becomes really confusing because you don’t understand the probabilities of those charts playing out say you’ve got a Candlestick here a dogee at the top the probabilities of that happening might be quite low considering where we are in the cycle it might just be enough to pause the trend and you start to see it correct at this point and then come back from there so that’s my belief why I think it’s so important to focus on one of your skills or focus on your own craft for me the craft is understanding Gan analysis and macro Cycles now I was hoping to keep this video under 20 minutes so I’m going to come back to this in Greater detail in future videos and this is looking at the time frames underneath the old all-time high especially after our 3 days down signal now you might recall that I’ve had many uh we’ve got a few rules here that we’ve been looking at especially a few of those bearish signals that came in through the tops the 3 days down the 3 weeks down if you’re just joining great hit the Subscribe button like the content again home of macro cycle analysis uh the main thing I wanted to bring up from here and what I’ve been looking at for 2024 to boil it down two major things a top in quarter 1 uh and I think for the S&P we got it on April 1st so spare me a day if you don’t mind the hype just got too extreme for Bitcoin so that’s been a big one the second major thing was the correction might last longer than most expect but I’m of the view that this is potentially a wave four so here we go this way no I forget anyway coming down things mirrored coming down into wave four before we take off to wave five and I think this period this quarter 2 quarter 3 of 2024 is that fantastic altcoin opportunity now that we’re getting through that death of the cryptos the death of the cycle the rebirth comes I don’t know what you guys believe in out there whether you do or you don’t I’m not a Christian or Catholic follow but you’ve got the rebirth and the death of everything in life we just had Easter for anyway I won’t um swear at the back of that one but essentially you have the death then you have the rebirth and the triggered that came up from yesterday’s video with the death of crypto it blows my mind I don’t even know if half the people watching a male adults but the triggering of some some few words in the titles is far beyond me you got death and rebirth it happens in every single thing in life it’s the whole point of uh the seasons you you have the death of Summer leading into winter and then the rebirth into spring and so on that’s the point so yeah there’s there probably a handful of people that are triggered by um titles there nonetheless Bitcoin looking at the time frames underneath the alltime high after that particular signal at 3 days down I’m looking at this sort of 13 weeks now so this is what we had posted many months ago looking at the time frames here so three days down signal shortest time frames for this we’ve now gone past that from the March 14th and the uh the next median time frame time frames in months was roughly 4 to 6 months underneath the old alltime high I don’t I was going to say I don’t make the well yeah I don’t make the rules I just follow the rules so I don’t make the rules I just follow these rules right and the history shows let’s get to uh to bitcoin again that each of these times you can see uh underneath these three days down and and other things that we’ll get to into in other videos is that you’ve got a simple 27 weeks underneath that particular top 3 days down Haring happened and then it starts to break out into fresh highs again not alltime highs I’m talking fresh highs here 27 weeks it’s basically 6 months so if we want to take it down into four months you can see there 16 weeks we hit a new alltime uh got close to an all-time high there was some corrections and then basically it took a while until it started to go again roughly 16 weeks the 3 days down signal so this one here didn’t uh I don’t believe had the signal but anyway the signal here we’re just looking at those resistance and how long it takes to get back to Fresh highs 29 weeks we can go back 27 weeks that’s 6 months back here that’s about 5 months harving also happened in here so long story short that’s why I’m still looking at these particular time frames of being roughly that sort of four to uh 6 months four to 6 months not has to be six months but in that time frame so as we get to um 13 weeks that’s been some of the shortest time frames of these consolidations as well there was a Haring back here uh that would lead us out into sometime in June to break into fresh highs I think that’ probably be somewhere around the best case scenario we’ll continue to follow up I want to get into altcoins and the old death of crypto here in just a second but um yeah hit the subscribe so I’m going to continue up on this in future videos as we continue to follow the uh the dying out phase for Bitcoin until we get the rebirth again can’t believe it was such a a difficult concept to swallow for I guess the select few as we can see from um the like and dislike ratios moving on total cryptocurrency market cap four weeks down you can see that it’s still grinding out now lower highs higher lows not a bad sign in the short term it’s underneath the 50% which is not what we want to see it’d be nice it was if it was above however it definitely is still above the major 50% so that’s the most important right now this low to this high cut through the middle I take it off logarithmic and you can see the linear scale here so provided we remain above that sort of 400 420 billion on the total cryptocurrency market cap excluding including Bitcoin eth and Stables note that this is a custom indicator that we have a TIA you can check these boxes you can add them back again it all depends on how you want to view the market link to that is in the top of the video description so over to the total cryptocurrency market cap it’s uh sitting at looking at the top to where we currently are about 56 days from the all-time high so getting close to that 2 months the 3 months again takes us out to about June and while we’re in this period That’s where we can expect that old feeling of death it’s basically clearing out the dead and the new were coming through again and I think most of us would agree that we would definitely see new cryptos coming through in this next stage of the cycle and in the previous move to the upside we’re definitely going to see cryptos that die out unfortunately for those that are emotionally attached maybe they they hit their crypto and they got married to them and they are just now hoping for the best that’s not going to work out so well for some people looked at some altcoins here which might not work out so well and some of them have made it to my dead list your list might be different but there are lot of dead cryptos now from previous cycles and some them have had to add in from this cycle because they’re just not showing that strength that you want to see moving forward interesting we have seen salana test come back under but still putting in higher lows so it can could potentially be part of the strong again but what we are seeing today is render I know I talk about render often but it’s it’s find it what in whatever chart you want it’s the pattern that you’re worried about forget the name up here let’s say it’s not named okay I I’ll try and block that out as best as possible the strength the push the breaking of the highs the breaking of the 50% the test of the 50% on the upper side here and today at least it’s tried again to push higher when Bitcoin came back down to 61k yeah just broke under that and many other altcoins are just not showing their strength against BTC either so in terms a chart pattern this is what you want to look for forget the name of it if you’re you know tied to your coins that’s your problem I don’t care but if you are fluid in how you move about the cycle and you’re not uh you know sucked into any particular one then you’re going to do a lot better it’s just that simple so just playing a few games here with the schematics looking at previous Cycles so four years ago we’ve got this particular schematic now I picked this up from the past from late well the second half of 2020 and then projected it to where we are today so just using this here um over the over the log scale you see it’s done a similarish sort of pattern I’m not saying this has to play out exactly but it’s done similar things in the past and that period was definitely a death of cryptocurrency it was very very quiet that’s very similar to what we’re seeing in today’s market especially when it comes to the uh the new investors the new Traders coming in into the market uh they’re searching on YouTube or X that has definitely dropped off compared to where we were just say 3 four months ago back in December January and February of of this year and so just using that schematic I mean I don’t know if it’s going to play out exactly the same looks pretty interesting we’ll keep it there continue to follow up with it I posted it on X as well join us over on X I’m going to be posting a bit more on there especially when these times are a bit quiet other than that appreciate your support hit that like button subscribe to the channel links in the video description for Tia premium I’ll see you guys back here for another video and yeah don’t let this thing get you down it looks like we are in that wave four and we you know got some bigger things to come I think there is some massive uh potential and some massive opportunities ahead uh especially with the rest of the 18.6 year cycle to go thanks again guys see you at the next one take care and peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews