Ever heard of friends making thousands upon thousands of dollars in crypto? Especially if you just hear about it for the first time, you might of been introduced to crypto by someone who has won big in the crypto markets. This is an example of survivor bias as people who made money in crypto are more likely to talk about it, whist those who lost money don’t bring it up.

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    30 Comments

    1. I don't remember the quote exactly, but we are drowning in information but starving for knowledge. We are basically living in a world where the brand with the best advertising wins.

    2. Great topic and analyses, it is indeed true that most of the attention from cryptos comes from the side of people getting a windfall from an unexpected break out of some sort. This in turn tends to distort the picture of what cryptos really are. There are people who will respond to euphoria in all sorts of ways, and the more realistic about cryptos we can be the less we can work on steming the "wrong" kind of attention, and actually get things moving smoothly….well theoretically speaking. lol. nothing is ever smooth in crypto land.

    3. Absolutely, there's no question that there is many more failure than success stories. I wonder, though, how to collaborate failure because I feel that failure of a good idea revolves around management. Mistakes happen because individuals may be strong in one category, but in an attempt to dominate their product the do not delegate responsibility for tasks to other individuals who are more able. That's why I think dao may be so useful in excelerating progress because it offers the ability to safely delegate responsibility of a part of an organization without creating a huge liability to the creator of the organization. The question I think really is, what is the most productive model for a dao?

    4. i know .. i will follow the news everyday about crypto .. i trust bitcoin the most and bitcoin can i remove fast to my bankaccount.. same is with litecoin and ethereum .. but i trust bitcoin now the most.. and tenx a little,  when it goes real wrong hopefully i see it fast enough

    5. Love that you highlight the unsuccessful cases along with the great stories! Survivor bias leads to the downfall of way to many and is unfortunately just a result of how our social media platforms work. Unfortunately sensation is everything..

    6. It also really bothers me when these 'success story' people talk about how all you have to do is work hard and you'll do well nonsense. Sure, you have to do those things, but it is no guarantee that you'll be successful. The right doors still have to open, and often don't. Of course these particular people don't believe that, because they want to believe that it was all thanks to them and nothing but.

    7. Survivor Bias –> People being nostalgic about "The Good Old Days". We are all descendants of the survivors and our ancestors did a lot better than those who died early in the "Not So Good Old Days". 🙂 Things are actually better now than they have ever been. Yippee!! 🙂

    8. With any observation there is ALWAYS a filter. Things are often not as initially perceived. When I was a small pup I used to believe that the nearby major city was a tornado magnet and consequently was afraid to go there when we went of family trips. They reported tornadoes all the time near that city on TV but rarely anywhere else in the region. Later I came to understand that tornadoes were happening all over the region and it was just the ones near the city that got reported. Definitely a filter and a good life lesson for me. 🙂 If a tornado touches down in an open field and there is no one to hear it, does it make a sound? 🙂

    9. you're right. most failures get buried in the vast space of internet and media… most people investing will lose on cryptos (sad to say) . People just focus on the good stuff, thinking i can 100x my investment or 1000x my investment and sit back and watch it grow. But people don't realize tha Ethereum wasn't just any coin… it was groundbreaking.

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