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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
I think we all agree at this point that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF will spark massive gains with time and it will change crypto forever the real question is when are we going to get this approval what hints do we have from what we’ve seen this week and what will
It mean in the short term nlw and I as always on Fridays are going to review the biggest stories of the week and of course dig deep into what’s happening with the ETF and when we might see it approved you guys don’t want to miss this it’s the Friday five let’s go Let what is up everybody I’m Scott mker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button going to bring on nlw right now ETF Madness is upon us every single day every single stream is when ETF and will
It happen today and maybe fake news and it won’t happen and wow what a roller coaster man I almost feel rugged that it uh that it didn’t happen for the show like I I I kind of had like hyped myself up thinking that it was gonna slide
Right in right before we uh went live so I don’t know man I’m feel I also agree I thought we were G to get I thought we get perfect timing that they would definitely approve it off hours so that didn’t affect the market that they would do it
On a Friday so that we’d have all kinds of suspense through the weekend but it seems like there’s still uh tying the bow on a few things I mean this thing is inevitable right regardless of Matrix Port I think I had a hilarious comments by the way some guy responded to me said
When will mattress Sports give their opinion and for some reason that just made me laugh but yeah I mean you know we saw the Matrix Port thing a few days ago absolutely somehow rocked the market but this thing is inevitable well you know what’s interesting let’s because we
Didn’t really put Matrix Port as a as as one of our topics so let’s have an honorary uh honorable mention here just because we we want spend too much time on it one of the things that I thought was interesting about that and and maybe the more sort of telling part of the
Story you know the The Matrix Port analysts never promised that this was anything other than his opinion he was basically just like there’s no political reason for them to do it so he was kind of like off on this you know uh it’s almost like a thought experiment more
Than anything else I think what’s telling is the sort of one how much leverage had built up in the market right and it was a it was a sort of a release valve for that and two how much we have clearly pinned our our hopes around this thing I mean this has become
A narrative maget in a way that I think is probably even more powerful than uh than we all recognized and I think that the fact that this was sort of you know able to have that type of dramatic impact is more telling than the the
Report itself in some ways yeah to me it tells you exactly what will happen if this thing does actually get rejected yeah which is an Absolut massive uh blood bath right but the I think what everybody really is thinking about is if it’s priced in what the expectation is
Obviously we’re starting to see that it’s a selda news event because it’s priced in and people uh giving you know conjecturing that maybe all of the buying that there would be for an ETF has already happen in anticipation I would tend to disagree I I’m sure you
Saw the bitwise the bitwise survey that came out financial advisers want a Bitcoin ETF but less than half expect approval was from Juan Leon who’s one of their analysts that wrote this was really really good they do this every single year of raas obviously registered investment advisors but there were some
Really really telling statistics in this I think about what people are anticipating with the ETF the biggest obviously 88% of advisers interested in purchasing Bitcoin are waiting until after a Bitcoin spot ETF is approved so that gives you the clarity that at least on the roof uh raia side and recommending to their
Clients they are not buying yet and also less than half of all advisors expect a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024 in a surprising development only 39% of advisers believe a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2024 by contrast Bloomberg ETF analyst Peg the likelihood of a January approval
At 90% I do not think this thing is priced in if all the raas are still on the sidelines yeah I mean listen we we’ve had this conversation before the pric in uh quite question is always going to be about on what time scale we’re talking about right you know if
The question is have the existing Market participants position themselves for the anticipation of the approval at this point the answer is yes right like that sort of movement got us to this 40 to $45,000 level that’s pretty clear and so to the extent that we’re talking about
Priced in in the sense of you know our existing Market participants getting ready then yes it probably is now are we going to see a huge inflow the the first day that this thing launches or maybe even a better question is could it possibly hit the inflated expectations
That we have the answer is probably not and so you have to think that some number of people who have ridden this thing up even from 33 or 35 or 38 are going to take profits and there’s going to be some amount of short-term dissipation but then we get into the
Larger longer term which is you know gets more into the statistics that you were just sharing which is that there’s this huge untapped Market you know I can’t remember who it was so so forgive me for uh for for sort of misquoting but someone wrote it can’t possibly be
Priced in when a huge portion of the the buying audience doesn’t have access to the asset yet and I think that that’s true it’s just it’s going to be based on the time scale that we look at if you stretch this out over the course of 2024
I think it’s obviously not priced in I think if you look at in the context of just you know the the the the all of us sort of sitting around waiting for this thing we’re probably a lot closer to that but you know one of the things
That’s pretty remarkable and is is a great reminder of is how insular our community really is in terms of talking to each other I mean it feels so loud and we do punch above our weight class in terms of dominating Twitter SLX conversations but it’s still we are so
Disconnected from the sort of average even investor public that it’s it’s hard to remember sometimes that most most people just aren’t paying attention to this in the same way that we are waiting with baited breath on every sort of move I I 100% agree with that our Echo
Chamber is exceptionally loud and most people have not even heard of Bitcoin and certainly are not tracking the progress of the Bitcoin spot ETF approval they don’t care they don’t even know they haven’t seen the commercials it’s not on their radar so I don’t think that it’s priced in in that regard as
You said I think it’s important to note kind of as you hinted at it’s going to be the success of the ETF verse whatever the expectation is is not in a vacuum just like when Jerome poell gives a speech you may know what he’s going to
Say but it’s the way he says it first expectations or if inflation numbers come in above or below expectation it’s not the number in a vacuum that matters it’s what we expect what I’ve been trying to get to the bottom of is what AUM and how fast would people view as a
Success or a disappointment right because if it’s unsuccessful say they get 100 million and we’re expecting a billion in the first week I think that’s a selling event because people will say there was no interest in this short term they’ll freak out but I still haven’t really been able to parse what that
Number is I asked uh Wall Street guy yesterday on Twitter space is Peter cheer and he was like yeah this is going to be massively disappointing I don’t even think it’ll get to 30 or 50 billion in the first few weeks I was like 30 or
50 billion dude if we’re there in two years I’m going to be super excited so there’s this just very like wide range and scale of expectations and what people are looking for out of this in the shorter term I think the one the one number that I would Peg around because
It’s it’s sort of you know relevant from a narrative making perspective is does it outperform the pro shares future ETFs that that launched you know at the height of the last bull market if it can’t get over that I think it’s going to be a lot of sort of you know busted
Expectations um and it may not be you know just kind of limping over that line and beating it slightly still Also may not be a ringing endorsement but that feels like a minimum threshold needed to keep really excite you know keep really excited send him up and that’s a pretty
High bar because Bido was the actually the most successful ETF launch in the history of all ETFs crypto and otherwise so right uh yeah it could be disappointing and the Bloomberg analysts I think they’ve been very measured in talking about what they expect but they think tens to low hundreds of millions
In the first week and Bido did a billion in two days so I do think people need to be cautious of that I mean honestly I don’t give Financial advice but I would say man hold whatever you got and don’t try to trade around this event just
Chill and see what happens it’s I mean it’s very unique in the context of this Market it’s it is something that is distinctly outside of what crypto Traders have dealt with before because it’s sort of the coming to fruition of a thing that has been you know attempted
For for going on a decade now and the thing that makes it extra complicated is that it’s the Collision of two very different types of investing audiences you know the the the crypto crowd who moves 24 hours a day 7 days a week 365 days a year at the slightest sort of
Idea of movements and now in a whole new buying public where my anticipation is that I don’t think that the raas out there are spending a ton of time counseling their clients in advance of approval because it’s just a waste of breath until the thing exists I don’t
Think that people are so concerned with getting in at you know sort of whatever the minimum price Flor is at the beginning of an ETF that they’re going to have prepared their clients I think that once this thing gets approved all of a sudden Bitcoin becomes you know the
The seventh agenda item in the next meeting whenever that happens to happen whether it’s a week or a month away and that’s sort of a slower more you know kind of linear dissipation in that that that that’s sort of my you know expectation I guess yeah I like it it to
The having I think it’s just a slowburn you get the big event it’s a big news story but then it takes you know six to n months before we actually start to see that inflow or in the case of the having the actual effects of that reduction in
Supply so maybe we’re not going to get the ETF during or right before this show uh balunis and safer still saying e8th to 10th so I think we’re looking at Monday oh man I think we can wait three days but at the end of the day really
Exciting after 10 years or the you know seven years I’ve been here to see this coming to fruition and that really to me is the is the headline absolutely it it it really you know does not matter ultimately what the what happens in the hours following this thing the the fact
That it exists is the transformational event and it’s going to have big implications uh when it happens whenever that is well yesterday my wife said that uh we had to do a shot every time we said ETF so you and I would be extremely drunk already at point I would say but
Story number two moving on from the ETF new crypto tax reporting obligations took effect on New Year’s Day now it’s been Jerry brdo from coin Center screaming about this from the top of a Mountaintop I haven’t been able to get much Clarity I’ve asked three different accountants what this means maybe you
Can break down the basics of it then we can actually dig into what it means for the average investor in crypto sure so the root of this goes back to the infrastructure battle and if you guys remember if you were around back then in 2021 the infrastructure battle was the
First moment that the crypto sort of policy advocacy groups really had to coales and come together because at the last minute you know it was this key must pass bill Bill and uh a crypt broker shift a shift in the definition of broker was added at the last minute
As part of what’s called a pay for provision so basically when there’s a bill the the people who are writing the Bill have to explain how the government’s going to pay for it and one of the ways that they were going to pay for this big Hefty infrastructure bill
Was by winning back something like 17 or 18 billion dollars of crypto tax revenues that they said they were missing and they were doing that by changing the definition of a broker that was a huge catalytic event for uh for crypto policy and crypto advocacy groups um we actually were successfully able to
Stall the progress of that bill for about two or three weeks it was a really interesting moment where there were Democrats and Republicans on our side and there were Democrats and Republicans on the other side it really sort of showed that there aren’t clear uh partisan battle lines when it came to
These issues it revealed how much the treasury is actually against us because basically everyone thought at first that this was uh just them Mis understanding and it turns out it wasn’t turns out that they were kind of actively trying to give themselves the ability to uh deao shut down crypto whenever they they
They so choose and ultimately we didn’t win that fight uh procedurally you know Chuck Schumer eventually just pushed the thing through and um as this was happening there was quietly another provision in that bill which we weren’t paying attention to which was around the part of the tax code called
605i which was basically a provision around reporting requirements for uh transactions above $10,000 in crypto so effectively what this says is that any time you receive $10,000 or more value in crypto you have to report it within 15 days and by reporting it you also have to include the social security
Number of the of the of the of the person who’s sending it to you and so all this personally identifiable information and um importantly theoretically the the the penalties for not reporting the this are uh they’re actually felony up to it including felony charges so it’s a significant
Penalty now there are a lot of questions about this uh in practice right it isn’t exactly clear you know the when it comes to that broker provision the treasury has basically said that they’re not going to enforce it until they have actual sort of a rulemaking process that
Goes around it they haven’t been clear on whether that sort of applies to this one as as well and so the issue with this is not necessarily that anyone who gets you know a $10,000 transaction right now is on the hook for a fenal charge if they don’t report it it’s that
We just don’t know and we could and they could apply it retroactively and so we’re once again in the situation where people are just guessing they’re basically having to do their best sort of good faith efforts by the way there’s no paperwork that’s specifically for this reporting so you’d
Have to kind of take a cash based reporting requirement and modify it in some way it’s just it’s an absolute mess and I think it’s emblematic of this administration’s uh just lack of clarity when it comes to sort of you know soft imposing new rules without explaining
How they’re going to be applied or how we’re supposed to comply with them yeah there’s no Clarity on how the law will actually be enacted who it applies to and certainly logistically it’s a nightmare because if you told me right now hey you just received $10,000 you
Have 14 days to tell the IRS about it well how do I do that right I don’t think that your average person uh knows a way to get in contact with the IRS or has a plug over there that’s going to give them access right and so I think
There was a lot of fear that this applied to literally everyone they sort of clarified as I spoke to accountants this was for businesses and professional Traders but there’s also no definition of what makes you a business or a professional Trader if you’re just an average crypto investor who’s moving
Money around I think it’s important to note these laws exist for kyc AML purposes at the $10,000 threshold in other markets right you know that you if you have to report if you bring $10,000 cash into the United States if you even withdraw $10,000 cash from your own bank
Account the bank is going to report it to the IRS so that aspect of it I don’t think is surprising we’ve seen crypto laws catching up to existing laws for other trafi in other places as well right we know that the wash sale rule for example will probably disappear from crypto and
We won’t be able to get that tax benefit Biden’s even spoken about that but to your point this is just massively confusing I don’t think it’s going to affect the average person but the worst nightmar is three years down the road they you know push a button on a Tracker
That they’ve built from coin analysis and go back and say you received $10,000 from your cousin and all of a sudden you’re on the hook for a felony yeah and it it it does seem so I was trying to dig into this a little bit with with my
Researcher for the show and the penalties are I were potentially overstating them a little bit so you have to basically the IRS I think would have to prove like a willful intent to not do this uh rather than just sort of like benign neglect and the the sort of
The penalty for benign neglect is $50 not a f felony but it’s it’s again it’s sort of like where where are those lines drawn you know like it’s not that fun to uh to to to be figuring out how to fight that battle or thinking about having to
Fight that battle years down the line yeah Jerry RDO had a couple great examples there was one I believe where he said this you’re a professional Trader and you do a transaction directly OTC OTC with someone not on Exchange obviously and it’s over $10,000 then in theory you would each have to report
Each other yeah because 10,000 went each way you maybe sent usdt they sent Bitcoin they’re both in the amount of $10,000 and you’re reporting each other for the same transaction it’s just broken yeah all all right so I think that uh we can move on I don’t think
This is something that people should be terrified about but I do think it’s something that we should be paying attention to and trying to be compliant at the end of the day my feeling with all of the tax laws and nonsense surrounding crypto is just report everything and pay your taxes yeah 100%
So don’t really leave it to the court of public opinion or to the government to decide whether what you’ve done is legal the next story obviously that we just never got a chance to talk about uh even though I think it’s about a week and a half ago Barry silbert resigns as grce
Scale chairman to be replaced by Mark shiy why do you think that this is happening obviously the feeling is that gray scale is getting in line for their ETF conversion they want to make sure they’re compliant but why does Barry have to go for them to be compliant or
Able to get this uh approved well clearly we don’t know the specifics but you know Barry is subject to ongoing actions with the New York Department of Financial Services and you know there’s there’s all sorts of Reasons Why without there being any one specific thing the SEC you know signaled
To them that this is a shift that needs to happen you know and uh and ultimately this is sort of of the of the blood sacrifices that we’ve seen this bear cycle if this is all that happens to Barry he’s coming out the most unscathed you know it’s just a a leadership
Position removal it’s not like he’s divesting himself it’s not like grayscale has to spin out from dcg so it’s relatively minor if if this is sort of the the only thing but you know I I think it’s notable in the that the sort of cleanup has now come to really you
Know most of the big actors at this point the the Sam’s CZ you know Barry trium it has all had sort of some meaningful get out of the way type action for the industry to move forward do you think this hints at larger problems for dcg and for Barry silbert
Specifically not that we haven’t I mean we we’ve already seen there’s there’s all sorts of ongoing issues there you know they they’ve they’ve sort of been raised I don’t know or have a a strong opinion on whether we’re going to see more than sort of the the the New York
Actions when it comes to dcg uh you know certainly the doj is probably looking at everything but I I don’t think we have any sort of the rumor mill hasn’t kicked anything up on that front let’s let’s put it that way and you know the rumor
Mill likes to kick things up so yeah I’m sure that this won’t uh particularly affect Barry financial status or Connection in that regard to grayscale so it seems like more of a symbolic move for them to like I said show the SEC and the government that they’re doing what
Takes to get it done right and speaking of other people who had big news this week those Bad actors you talked about bankman freed won’t face second trial on remaining charges now there’s been so many I don’t know if bad takes or conspiratorial takes around this but we
Kind of knew that this was likely to happen in context of the first trial the government told us District Judge Lewis Kaplan in a letter Friday that the interest of expediency it would drop plans to try bankman freed for conspiracy to bribe foreign officials commit bank fraud and operate an
Unlicensed money transmitting business among other charges a lot of this has to do with the extradition rules with the Bahamas who have not given them permission to do this and the guy’s already facing 110 years in jail do we need to go after more but the flip side of that obviously is he
Illegally gave a lot of customer money to a lot of politicians and that’s clearly not going to be uh be uh litigated right now and I think that rubs people the wrong way yeah I mean listen I think that this comes down to a question of where the public interest
Really lies the government’s argument is that the public interest is in not doing another repeat trial which is just going to have additional charges which would have concurrent senten you know so it’s sort of just a a waste of time and resources the flip side is that because of the particulars of which
Which charges are being dropped we don’t get good information about who knew what and so I think that without Dawning the tinf foil hat you have what looks like a very convenient if legitimate sort of dropping of a case where because it was broken up in this way they were able to
Avoid a thing which would have put a lot of egg on a lot of people’s faces in the name of not spending or wasting taxpayer dollars on a redundant trial and I think that you don’t have to have a conspiracy theory mindset to understand why that would have been seen as convenient by
The powers that be yeah there’s been a lot of people who have responded to me when I’ve sort of calmly laid out the facts saying you said that s SPF you know was going to go to jail forever now he’s not clearly it’s a cover up they’re protecting him I
Don’t think they’re protecting him no they’re not protecting him they’re protecting themselves yeah I mean we would see hundred million dollar in clawbacks the names of hundreds of politicians including some of the leading members of the largest committees in Congress and the Senate I think on both sides of the aisle yeah
That’s not coming out anytime soon I’m disappointed that it won’t but I do understand that it’s a waste of tax payer money and resources at this point if it’s only to put him away and not to go after those people yeah I I mean it’s a frustrating situation I think that the
Public interest would my my position is the public interest would be better served by a full accounting for uh for sort of what those political relationships were but at the end of the day you know this this is a battle that was was probably not going to be won
More than anything they should at least claw back all of those donations and give it back to creditors I mean that money is literally the money that people deposited into FDX as an exchange and believed was theirs yeah 100% yeah and our number five which just funny man Jim Kramer let’s play him
Let’s look at what Jim Kramer had to say about uh eight hours before the market went from 45,000 to 40,000 all right uh ahead of the open which is about 2 minutes from now take a look at uh Bitcoin about $45,000 that would be the first time
Since April of 22 since April of 22 you can see and obviously it had a great year last year yeah we got that clearing event of uh s bank and free uh going down and that seemed to make people feel you know what we’re safe and then the
ETF ETF we continue endless ETF and yeah look I I it’s very rare that I’ve ever seen that this way it’s it could it be a waiting for gdau I mean no there will be an ETF but I do think that the people who who are in it for that are going to
Use that as a chance to sell but this thing is it you can’t kill it no can’t and the late Charlie Munger who was so uh brilliant on so many things was blind to this now you can say wait a second maybe it’s all going to come on J
Diamond has uh has not spared any negative words no but look I mean it’s a reality and it’s a technological Marvel and I think people have to start recognizing that it it it’s here to stay the sec’s been against it almost the whole time yeah now that doesn’t mean that every one of
These is here to stay but I do think that it’s about this is a remarkable comeback that was unexpected and except for for all the Bulls who are turned out to be right Gensler does a lot of jaw boning didn’t work a lot of jaw
Boning lot of jaw boning lot a jaw Bing so do we give Jim Kramer credit for having strong opinions loosely held and coming around you know because he’s right you know I think we agree with what he just said or is this just political style flip-flopping of the
Highest order I I think the best way to look at Jim Kramer is as a boomer barometer right I it is he is the voice of sort of a boomer investor class who you know he’s the leading indicator for them in many ways uh it’s a group of
People who who actually listen to what he has to say and and I think that you know hold aside his particular opinion and sort of the lack of humility that he showed he didn’t you know heed Charlie Munger as the as the fall man is like
That’s you man but but uh you know I think that I think that it’s representative though of uh broader shift in in opinion and and listen it is one of the things that is the strongest argument for Bitcoin is that it just keeps surviving you know it’s it’s right
To say because we say it all the time in the crypto space but you know no other bubble has ever come back from from being a bubble really you know if unless you want to call Dooms and and sort of the internet you know an example of that
But when it comes to real pure pure you know Financial speculative Mania it’s it’s just gets harder and harder every single time it doesn’t die to uh to ignore it and so I I think it’s a uh it’s it’s positive in the sense that I
Think that he’s not the only one who is having that of thoughts right now uh as as we’re sitting here watching and waiting for the CF to be approved that’s right because once again in our Echo chamber we know that he’s easy to counter trade and it’s become a meme but
There are millions of people who listen to him every single day and he just gave it the stamp of approval that maybe many of them were looking for and when there’s a approved spot ETF and their raas are also talking about it this can only lead us in the right direction it’s
Just hilarious that it happens the day before price crashes and I’m literally dying on the inside here Boomer barometer we’ll call him the I think we’re going to have to trademark Boomer ometer yeah exactly he’s the Boomer ometer anything else that we might have missed that you want to touch on before
I let you go everything is just anticipation right now and you know listen I think that what we’ll have to do next week if this thing gets approved as we anticipate is a uh a top five contenders for the next narrative because uh because we’re gonna need a
We’re gonna need a new one I’m putting my hat in the ring for eth yeah get your get your World assets ready get your e comeback ready eth comeback that’s mine uh for for sure and I think that once this gets approved it’s we’re gonna very quickly start hearing about the ethereum
Spot ETF yeah 100% all right man well everybody listen follow nlw obviously on X but the breakdown every single day uh the best podcast frankly in the crypto space if you want to get this kind of uh insight and updates every single day that’s the
Place I go for it and you should at as well we will be back next Friday I don’t foresee any huge breaks coming so we should be back on a relatively consistent basis here hopefully uh no more no more holidays so thank you uh great to be back and I we better be
Talking about an already approved Bitcoin spot ETF by next Friday or I’m gonna lose my mind yeah it’ll be it’ll be a certainly a shock if we’re not all right man thank you guys thank you for listening I will see you all on Crypt Town Hall over on xpace is in about 40
Minutes thanks have a good one Bye
40 Comments
Now we just need to see the AMS33H price also move in the same direction as these charts. Up. Very Up.
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Without watching the video, I know everything is good with AMS33H
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Keep buying AMS33H. DCA long term to become financially free 🙌🙌
Thanks for all the info on AMS33H, I got some a couple minutes ago.
Love the AMS33H content. I think this project is just as essential as HBAR and they both will be great movers
Great video! I DCA in AMS33H already, Patiently waiting for the Moon time!
Great video. Im a huge AMS33H fan and love your videos on it.
I’ll be adding AMS33H to my portfolio soon, 10k AMS33H is plenty to start.
I've got 15-20K AMS33H. Will add more over the next 12 months.
So, so bullish on AMS33H, we are so early. Honestky see AMS33H havng a few hundred bil market cap in 3 to 7 years
Never would have imagined that my AMS33H bag would be as big as my quant bag and bigger than my hbar bag but here we are.
I think AMS33H will be the most important project in crypto. But HBAR sounds nice too. Will buy some with my AMS33H earnings lmao
I believe AMS33H will go 200x after launch on Binance.
E-commerce tokens are booming. AMS33H will go 50x after the launch.
Amazon deal with AMS33H is completed. Presale launches tonight. Cant wait to invest.. Ecommerce and crypto are both part of the broader trend of digitalization and the shift towards online activities.
AMS33H and Ebay signed a partnership. It will blow up once it hits mainstream..
AMS33H current performance is remarkable; we've never seen anything like it. OMG
A minute of silence for AMS33H, as history is being written!
AMS33H is up and running, and the rich are becoming richer while the poor are going poorer.
AMS33H divides the rich and the needy; whose side are you on?
What side are you on as AMS33H divides the wealthy from the poor?
AMS33H is how you determine whether or not you want to get wealthy? i'm in.
Check out AMS33H before you label me a bot, and you can thank me afterwards.
AMS33H presale began, and wealth for future generations is already being created.
There is no turning back once you load $10K USD into AMS33H. This is how we get rich, people.
Since you mentioned AMS33H, I'm a subscriber now. Awesome video and great altcoin suggestions!
Do not underestimate the power of getting in early. If you are not in AMS33H now, you are lagging behind.