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#Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #Altcoins #Pump
Bitcoin’s ETF approval will be anyday from now. What does this mean for the price, alts and 2024 outlook? Will it be a sell the news event? In this video I give my honest thought and scenario-based strategy.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 ETF’s effect on price
0:48 How I’m gonna play this
1:03 Larsson Line’s recap
2:08 The SEC called me???
3:10 Scenario 1
4:13 Possible entries?
5:43 Scenario 2
6:21 How to play this?
8:40 Moon math from Standard Chartered
10:40 Common misconception about ETFs
๐บ Essential Videos
๐How to secure your crypto ๐https://youtu.be/ny452zAcZwY
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๐ Proof that HODL Sucks ๐ https://youtu.be/fRAnyZ1DXco
๐ Wyckoff Whale Playbook 2023 ๐ https://youtu.be/hefoG8hHwRc
๐ Energy Crisis, The Ugly Truth ๐ https://youtu.be/bxzAB8zvbBA
FOR GENERAL INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. All information presented in this video references an opinion of the speaker and is for general information purposes only. You must not construe any information presented as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing presented constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell financial instruments. I am not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. For financial or investment advice, seek a duly licensed professional in your jurisdiction, who can take your specific situation into account. Past performance does not indicate future results. You are always at risk of losing all invested funds. I donโt give advice to buy or sell specific assets, but provide timeless education and software tools generic for any asset. Rather than relying on subjective market opinions, I apply the principles of technical analysis formulated in 1930s on historical charts. Anyone can apply the same process and get the same result. Technical Analysis does not predict the future. It is a tool to find setups for controlled risk/reward. Larsson Line does not predict the future. It is a mathematical formula for trend expression. My objective with this video is to spark curiosity to learn more and to reflect on your own analysis, not replace it. Disclosure: The speaker holds Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure, as ETP price tracker certificates in ISK through his bank.
So the Bitcoin ETF is around the corner and what does it actually mean for the price it is a significant event it will take Bitcoin from something that a bunch of tech nerds such as myself find interesting to play around with to a serious Financial product by literally
The biggest institutions in the world and suddenly Pension funds and other institutions can start directing a portion of their financial assets into this digital gold in a secure and fully transparent way so long term I think this will have huge impact but I’ve thought a lot about what will happen
Shortterm and of course I don’t know any more than you do but it’s fun to speculate a little isn’t it and perhaps we can find some Clues through technical analysis trying to uncover what the big players seem to be actually doing and not only listen to what they are saying
And of course the short summary is that since the top in late 21 loan line was down entire 2022 then early 2023 we uncovered that something was happening we identified the volume Peaks that large players were re-entering we identified that the 17,43 3 then L line flipped gold at
21,000 people laughing haha lagging indicator today at 46,800 I don’t hear anyone laughing anymore because since we identify that price moved up then moved into a 6 months long consolidation in a Range that broke out here in October continuing the move up and if we now zoom out sometimes these types of
Consolidation Flags in technical analysis can be a midpoint pattern so it is absolutely possible for this move to carry price up close to the next big resistance at 65 5K or alltime high or it Ops little before who knows but if there is an ETF approval this
Week commission no please don’t call me if you have something please send a written message and we’ll have someone qualified look at it calling from the US Securities and Exchange Commission let me explain about our company okay if the Bitcoin ETF is approved this week I would be very
Surprised if there isn’t at least a short-term pump which could carry this a little bit further on that excitement alone but and here’s the point to this video then what what’s going to happen when this starts trading are all the Pension funds just going to start
Pouring in the billions in the next day and this will just go in a straight line up like this of course it would be very nice but if thinking logically perhaps not I think that it’s at least possible that after the excitement is over and this starts trading and then not that
Much happens perhaps the first days or weeks they could be a feeling of like now what I’m not predicting that this will happen I’m just saying that I think it’s a possibility so I want to explore that scenario so I’m ready in case it happens so if that happens today
46,800 perhaps it pumps a little bit higher 50 60 who knows but perhaps then now what feeling starts setting in and the billions are not coming in yet could there be a retracement then I think it’s at least possible the first obvious major support level is this 40K level
That I have drawn here the next massive support is the 30k level is it possible that it retraces all the way to 40K or even 30k in technology the extreme outcomes are always possible so if this happens if we get the retracement to 40K support that holds or even to 30k
Support that holds those could be the entry opportunities of 2024 from a technical analysis perspective I’m not saying anything revolutionary here guys it’s support and resistance this are 100 year old principles I’m just translating it into the chart that is unfolding in front of us the even simpler observation
Is that L on line is still gold throughout these moves a lot of people have asked me should I sell should I take profits and of course I can’t tell anyone what to do I can just talk about the technical analysis and since the breakout here with L line gold there has
Been no signs of anything else than continuation every single resistance has turned into support with L line gold meaning uptrend and that hasn’t changed today now this resistance can act as support instead look at the the volume profile here on the right a lot of BTC
Changed hands here at 44k and I said that yesterday on yesterday’s DCA stream before this had broken out but after price had cleared this big volume Peak called point of control so this scenario that I just showed you is my scenario number one that I will be ready for in
Case it happens so to recap another pump after the approval if it happens but then a feeling of now what we not that much happen short term in days or weeks price retracing finding support and then as the actual big money starts coming in we have a more sustained move upwards if
That doesn’t happen What would be the scenario to well my scenario too is actually that people are more prepared and ready than I thought and that this actually just continues up that’s actually a harder scenario for people who are looking for new entries where is the entry then it’s very difficult to
Find a clear invalidation point when price has already run up this much from the actual correct entry from a technical analysis perspective that was all the way down here at 177,000 at 21,000 but where to enter from here it’s pretty difficult but the good news is that if that happens there’s another
Opportunity that will come instead because at some point this is going to flatten out say that it flattens out here and starts getting boring what do people do then that’s when they are going to go for the old coins when is the time for old coins when is it old
Season when usually the times when the Bitcoin dominance here the Orange Line drops like a stone or periods where Bitcoin flattens out at a higher level after previous move up and then doesn’t do much look here for example in early December Bitcoin was in this range and
Started getting boring after a big move up what happens then with altcoins they pump meaning Bitcoin dominance drops so here was a big opportunity in Old Coins let’s find a couple of other examples same thing here Bitcoin moved up in October then it went into this consolidation pattern that’s when
Bitcoin dominance drops people move profits from liquid BTC into El liquid ORS which then pump more you can find the in all the previous Cycles Bitcoin moves up starts consolidating Bitcoin dominance drops bitcoin price moves up starts consolidating Bitcoin dominance drops so if the scenario of continued
Price rise followed by a period of consolidation happens this would be the period of altcoin opportunities and of course we will be able to confirm that with a trend change in the btcd chart because while it looked like it broke broke it was actually a fake the uptrend
In btcd is intact La line in fact never flipped blue on the Bitcoin dominance daily candles even though I thought it would but it didn’t so again the Simplicity of the process beat any speculation even my own I’m not saying those are the only two scenarios of course anything could happen here but
Then we Analyze That chart when it happens I’m just saying that right now the trend is still up lo line is still gold the chart patterns are still favorable nothing has changed I thought to mention a few other things lar Davis shared this standard ched which is one
Of the big Banks posting some moon maath 200k coming standard chared bitcoin price upside from us spot ETF approval now with the ETFs the banks are part of the ecosystems so they have now a way to start marketing this to their clients in a secure and transparent way without a
Lot of the problems that the banks have had to deal with when it comes to physical crypto with scams and other things so I think marketing battle will now start between all these ETF issuers and the banks that are part of this ecosystem in a way that we haven’t seen
Before and we see this already in the price competition the ETF issuers in the US have already started this Fierce price competition on the fees and the average fees here are about 0.5% Which is less than half of the average of the European issued etps are currently charging in fees which is of
Course fantastic for consumers but it also shows that there will be marketing efforts and real span behind this to try to attract customers I also think this post was so Good by Eric balunas ETF issuers in about 6 months look at me I’m the crypto exchange now what does he
Mean with that he thinks that the spread meaning the difference between the buyer and the seller will be very low he’s writing one to two basis points so that’s 1 to two hunds of 1% at least for the ones that see healthy secondary Market volume and some Market maker
Think it will be eight basis points Which is less than 0.1% Which is less than many of the exchanges are charging and one final clarification because this was actually unclear to me earlier Max Kaiser is a Bitcoin OG writes when you buy any of the BTC ETFs you’re buying into an index
Product that tracks the price you don’t actually own any BTC and Eric baluna says that this is wrong he’s saying quick reminder ETFs are depositary receipts so you do own the BTC or any underlying asset and ETF tracks your shares also known as receipts link to proportional BTC that has been deposited
With a custodian this is why ETFs or SBF proof Sam bankman freed proof now it’s true when you sell you can’t get BTC back but no one who would use ETF want BTC back they’d rather have USD that’s the whole point of funds in general to
Outsource all this to someone else so it is real BTC that is deposited with a custodial which is different from any of the price track certificate constructions that exist today where the exact construction is more flexible so quick summary L line remains gold I have two main scenarios from here but of
Course anything can happen then I’ll take it from there we’ve been spot on with analysis for another year of 2023 but it’s important not ride on Old achievements now we have to qualify again rolling up the sleeves and starting 2024 with a beginner mindset thank you T C out heo
30 Comments
Letโs face it guys. Any fund wanting to buy bitcoin soon will want the best price. Iโm guessing market manipulation is possible therefore a fall is a real possibilityโฆbut how far.
Everyone is wrong and your'e right, you say that too often mr Larson. Keep that ego in check.
These scenarios are some I've also considered, they're not unthinkable or particularly outlandish ๐
Good alfa content CTO! With an "extreme greed" on the F&G index, a bearish divergence on the daily, an upcoming FED pivot (historically always bearish reaction before it gets bullish), an overextended market, the "sell the news" – narrative, the pre-halving dump that occured every cycle sofar , the idea that big institutions probably don't want to buy at the current high prices, etc… the odds are in favor of the bears IMHO. We will find out soon!
So the only one who is right are you? With your TA that never has made 1 good prediction?
What a narcissistic BS!
I think we underestimate the scope of ETF providers expectations. Current price is nothing to what they plan – BTC way beyond the everyday person considers afgordable: 6 figures and more. So a retrace, possibly, but only after they've pumped it to near ATH – 67 back to 50 then off to the 100ks
CTO, fantastic analysis! I believe the scenarios you outlined are highly probable. My biggest concern is a major retracement sidelining institutional investors. Ultimately hodler's will appreciate the marketing budget of these large firms. Ride the wave!
everyone is wrong now? but you dont know more then we do…. good one
Damn. Was that call for real? Or am I just naive?
how do you get the horizontal volume bars in tradingview?
Always consistently evidence driven and insightful. Thank you.
Cheeky Crypto called this months back.
all nonsense talk I dont know then what are u explaning us >
Dream on..price drop ๐ง…not going to happen unfortunately
Bitcoin is a greater fool theory!
i think max keiser is right …check the way gld and slv are run.
My confirmation bias approves of this analysis.
โ๏ธ๐๐ stacking those ๐ฉ๐ช
Only about thousand of you youtubers saying everyone wrong !!
so in other works you have no idea what is going to happen ?
Iโm sure there are a bunch of Retail investors waiting and waitingโฆ. Before they know it itโs at 70,000 all time high, and then they fomo buy ๐. They had past 2 years to buy and they still waiting. Lolโฆ missing out on all those beautiful gains over the past 12 months.
Nice to see some real sense in a highly less understood technical analyses !
All you need to know is that 2 billion from one bank is a drop in the bucket with a trillion dollar market cap for a 60k BTC.
Will probably see a 55 to 60 k BTC and then a drop-down at the halvening before the beginning of the bull run.
If you've been waiting for the bottom this whole time you should be buying alts because you're not buying BTC at this point unless you're loaded.
My bags are packed it can go anywhere I'm ready if it goes down to 40 k I'll gladly buy more alts
Follow…this…guy
I think itโs going to shoot up to 60,000 then trade sideways and go up slowly every couple of weeks.
10 years of bad traiding, i now an call my self a real pro. I know what will happend, but..
Do i tell anyone, nooooot
Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz…. is that you ?
Altcoin season wont start at the next ath, there will be smaller rallies before the BTC ath
Liquidity = stability = altseason
It smells like ''sell the news'' event if etf approved if etf rejected then distribution event which in my opinion already in process. Conclusion; Btc goes south soon.
Short after the etf approval binance will go down