The Ethereum Opportunity

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Hello and welcome back to my 10 favorite people hope you’re doing well I’m incredibly excited for today’s video because ethereum has five huge narratives going for it right now and mainstream media and the average investor is only really aware of one of them and that’s the fact that it’s most

Likely going to get a spot ETF in May of this year mainstream media and the average investor have no idea about ethereum Bitcoin seasonality and how ethereum has been incredibly beat up against Bitcoin over the last year and a half or so and how it normally finds its

Bottoms in January of the having year and we have seen that so far we saw ethereum outperform Bitcoin in 2016 in 2020 the most recent having year and we’re likely to see the same thing happen in 2024 and then we’d expect ethereum to go ballistic in the PO

Having year like we saw in 2021 and like we saw in 2017 they also have no idea how the supply Dynamics work ever since we went through the merge in 2022 we’ve never seen ethereum with these Supply Dynamics in a bull market and as activity and excitement increases maybe

Thanks to a narrative like the spot ETF we should see the supply burn increase and an increase in demand alongside a decrease in Supply could be a very nice reflexive combination for ethereum’s price they also have no idea that enan layer is launching this year which is

Going to allow ethereum to be staked across multiple protocols at once which means ethereum stakers are going to get increased staking rewards which should lock up more of the supply and put more upward pressure on price as more and more ethereum is being staked to chase these additional yields thanks to igen

Layers launch and finally I can assure you mainstream media and the average investor have no idea what EIP 4844 is also known as Proto D sharding which is going to bring a lot of improvements to the ethereum protocol and includes almost a 90% fee reduction for l2s on ethereum which should significantly

Increase L2 activity and increase network activity overall which again is amazing for Supply burn is amazing for staking rewards and should provide even more excitement and upside pressure on the price going into this ETF deadline in May of 2024 and with those five narratives I think it’s incredibly likely that ethereum outperforms Bitcoin

Over the next 6 12 and 24 months and I think it’s going to hold majority of I think it’s going to hold the majority of the attention going into the spot ETF approval and even for those of you that don’t think it’s going to get approved which in my opinion doesn’t make much

Sense because the reason the SEC lost to grayscale was because there were already Futures ETFs available for Bitcoin so the courts ruled that it doesn’t make sense for the SEC to keep blocking spot ETFs if there’s already futures ETFs or sorry if there’s already Futures on

Products like the CME and the only other asset with CME Futures and Futures ETFs today is ethereum so if the courts ruled against uh the SEC in the grayscale case I don’t think the SEC is going to be able to block an ethereum ETF because there’s already Futures available on the

CME and there’s already Futures ETFs available and everybody saw what Bitcoin did leading into its spot ETF and and see if you can guess exactly where on the chart the SEC lost that case to grayscale no one really believed it was going to be approved including myself

But once we saw grayscale beat the SEC in that case and the courts ruled that grayscale that the SEC had no right to keep blocking these ETFs price absolutely took off into the approval we ran all the way to the 05 Fibonacci level and even the 618 and ended up

Finding our Peak as of right now at the price that we were at for the 2022 open and the prices that we saw in December of 2021 and I know it’s hard to believe but the equivalent price for ethereum would be going past 2800 and past 3,300

And the equivalent price for ethereum is around 4,000 now am I going to be betting my entire life savings that we get that far no but I do think it is on the table especially if other narratives like the Bitcoin having the ethereum spot ETF and all of the supply Dynamics

Ethereum has going for it ethereum tends to move incredibly quick and incredibly hard when it breaks out and when it rallies and when you look at the fact that we just broke out of a 60 day accumulation range and you have these very very clear narratives I would not

Be surprised if ethereum absolutely took off here and we have to keep in mind that ethereum is oneir the size of Bitcoin so the same money flowing from Bitcoin to ethereum will have a much larger impact on ethereum’s price because it’s a smaller asset and I think

That’s going to add fuel to the fire for the ETF speculation because everyone knows ethereum is a smaller asset so every dollar that flows into ethereum will have a larger impact on price because it’s smaller so even if you don’t believe the ETF is going to get approved everyone will still speculate

Regardless that ethereum is going to have a similar rally and a similar buy the rumor price action to what we saw with Bitcoin especially when you have Larry thinkink potentially the most influential guy on Wall Street managing a$1 trillion fund or asset manager is saying things like black rocks Larry

Think says Bitcoin ETFs are just the first step in the technological revolution of finance and of course we know ethereum is the first name that comes to mind after Bitcoin especially with things like Defi and he also said that Bitcoin approvals are stepping in Stones towards tokenization and what’s

The most likely platform that things are going to get tokenized on it’s most likely going to be ethereum and one of the great things about buying ethereum is you have exposure to the entire ethereum ecosystem whether that’s defi activity whether that’s nfts whether that’s scaling with the l2s all of those

Activities settle back to the L1 which again increases fees on the network increases Supply burn and you have all of these factors whether it’s EIP 4844 increasing activity or igen layer increasing staking rewards and all of these things are working together to decrease Supply and increase demand which should be an incredible

Combination for price now what’s going to be incredibly important is we’re going to have to monitor what the flows for the Bitcoin spot ETFs look like because if they continue to do well that’s going to bring more and more excitement for ethereum getting its own spot ETF also and honestly the flow

Haven’t been terrible this is now the flows including day two we did see about 600 million leave grayscale which is not surprising but we did see almost 1 billion flow into black rock Fidelity and Ark which is actually not that bad it does mean that there was net inflows

As of right now and the reason price likely went down was the sell sell the news event and all of the short-term Traders taking profits but we are seeing inflows continuing to in increase and over the next few weeks as long as we see more passive inflows coming in and

Not too many outflows out of grayscale which just ends up offsetting the inflows into the new products it could be incredible for ethereum’s narrative as everyone gets excited for ethereum to have a product available as well because the same amount of money coming into ethereum would lead to way more price

Appreciation with it being a smaller asset and we know that institutions absolutely love their yield so the fact that you can stake ethereum right now and earn 4% in ethereum which will only increase once igen layer goes live will be a great narrative for institutions now I don’t think those ETFs are going

To pay the staking yield but overall demand for ethereum will increase as these yields increase and maybe they’re not going to hold ethereum in the ETF because they do want access to the rewards but it should still increase demand because institutions absolutely love yield and one of the biggest

Arguments against Bitcoin is the fact that it does not pay a yield and it’s also a lot easier for technology investors to justify investing something like ethereum and having exposure to this entire ecosystem that narrative just works a little bit better for technology investors than the digital gold

Narrative that Bitcoin has which is still incredibly exciting and I do think Bitcoin is going to do amazingly well but ethereum is just a much easier narrative to grasp for a lot of people because it almost feels like you’re investing in a technology company and you’re having a you have the

Availability to index all of this building and all of this ecosystem activity by just buying the asset ethereum and keep in mind that institutional investors have had access to bitcoin proxies like micro strategy and all of the miners like Marathon or Riot or clean spark but there hasn’t

Really been a great way to get e eum exposure without these spot ETFs being available you could argue that coinbase is kind of like getting Bitcoin and ethereum and exposure to the entire ecosystem but there hasn’t been a nice direct ethereum play like micro strategy and the Bitcoin miners were for Bitcoin

So I think that could also help with demand for these ethereum spot ETFs because institutions haven’t really had an easy way to allocate to ethereum and I think these ETFs going live could definitely assist with that and finally an obvious question that comes up is what about the popular l2s like optimism

And arbitrum I almost view these as leveraged ethereum they they’ll probably outperform ethereum by about 2x or 3x to the upside so if you’re bullish ethereum you’ll probably outperform in these l2s but that volatility and leverage also works to the downside so if we see a 10

Or 20% maybe 30% correction in ethereum at some point I would expect them to go down significantly more when ethereum sees that downward pressure so I don’t have exposure to any of these right now I should have bought them when I first started looking at them a long time ago

But you know it is what it is and I ended up missing this huge move to the upside so it’s a little bit less exciting for me to buy optimism or arbitrum at these prices but I do view them as leveraged ethereum plays for somebody that wants to take on

Significantly more risk for more upside and who are people that are very bullish on ethereum in the short to medium term and want to get that increased exposure via the l2s especially because they directly benefit from EIP 4844 and those ethereum fees being reduced by about 90%

For the l2s now the tough thing about this is I have no idea how this plays out between now and the spot ETF if Bitcoin can kind of support itself here and not roll over significantly maybe it chop around a little bit down and a little bit up and just go sideways that

Would be a nice environment for ethereum to go higher in the short term but if we see Bitcoin roll over aggressively and start falling below support levels it probably pulls down ethereum with it so maybe the path looks like this maybe the path looks like that I have no idea how

It ends up getting to this roughly $3,000 to $4,000 level between now and the ETF and of course so many things can happen in the macro environment between now and then we don’t have access to this upside without taking on a lot of risk also and that’s something that

Needs to be understood but I do have high conviction that ethereum will outperform Bitcoin over the next 6 12 and 24 months especially after how bad it was beat up on its Bitcoin pair over the last year and a half so anyway my strategy is pretty straightforward I’m

Not incredibly excited at foming in at these prices I’ll just sit on the positions that I accumulated lower and if we see some larger Corrections on ethereum over the next month or two maybe because Bitcoin sees a more aggressive sell-off I think it could be a great opportunity to load up before

This spot ETF narrative The seasonality Narrative the supply shock narrative the igen layer narrative and the EIP 4844 narratives really start to pick up steam and this is the benefit of being early everybody knows about the ETF and everybody everybody is talking about the ETF but those other narratives are not

Nearly as common and as wellknown so I think it’s a great opportunity to take advantage because a lot of people have written off ethereum for assets like salana and other newer l1s because of how boring its price action has been but I really can’t fade it when it’s

Breaking out of a 600 day accumulation range so we’ll see what happens I tried to cover everything that I could I think the people thinking that we’re not going to get the spot ETF after the SEC lost to grayscale and after ethereum already has CME Futures and Futures ETFs are

Most likely going to be proven wrong once again because Black Rock and Fidelity most likely know what they’re doing and the same way they had confidence that they would get the Bitcoin ETF I think they have the exact same confidence that they’re going to get the ethereum one because Bitcoin and

Ethereum are the only assets with Futures ETFs and they’re the only two assets with CME Futures as well so anybody thinking it is is not going to happen is wrong in my opinion but of course anything is possible but anyway that is my ethereum thesis let me know

What you expect do you think we can see these prices before the ETF deadline I think if Bitcoin can put in a move like the one that it put in running from about 25,000 to almost 50,000 in about 3 to 4 months a smaller asset like ethereum should be able to do something

Very similar and ethereum getting to 4,000 isn’t even a double at this point it’s about an 80% increase which is actually less of a move than what Bitcoin has put in since this spot ETF front running rally began in about midep but anyway let me know what you think

Did I miss anything I tried to cover just about everything I could and some of the most common push backs that I get on the ethereum thesis I would love to know what you guys expect are you bullish or bearish ethereum and of course things like salana can still

Outperform ethereum over the longer term but in terms of risk reward and all of these narratives going for ethereum right now I really like it as a play going into this spot ETF deadline in May but of course anything can happen macro could ruin this for us any type of other

Events that bring Bitcoin and the entire space down will most likely bring ethereum down with it but I do definitely think that ethereum is the asset to watch over the next 3 to 6 months but anyway thank you so much for the support on the recent videos thank

You so much for watching and I’ll talk to you soon