Stocks Make All Time Highs – Can Bitcoin Follow? | Macro Monday

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what’s happening in macro and crypto!

Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1
James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish
Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11

►► DevvE
DevvE is a next-generation cryptocurrency – DevvE addresses Bitcoin’s most significant weaknesses—regulatory compliance, energy consumption, costs and speed!
👉 Follow DevvE on X for Updates: https://twitter.com/DevveEcosystem
👉 Join the DevvE Telegram group to stay in the know! https://t.me/DevveOfficial

►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY!
👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/

►►OKX
SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!
👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER

►►TRADING ALPHA
READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.
👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker

►►THE DAILY CLOSE
BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS.
👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/

►►NGRAVE
This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use.
👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd

►►NORD VPN
GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL – 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY!
👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets

►►COINROUTES
TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS!
👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd

Follow Scott Melker:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker
Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe
Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c

#Bitcoin #Crypto #macromonday

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:00 Stock market: everyone is bullish
5:00 Is recession coming?
9:00 Bitcoin will become the digital gold
20:00 Bitcoin can correct to $30K
21:00 Bitcoin is not correlated asset
27:00 BTFP
30:40 Will the Fed cut rates?
32:30 The best performing assets in 2024
36:40 Extreme debt
41:30 Outstanding consumer debt
45:10 Consumer sentiment is tricky
50:11 Are we already in a recession?

The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.

Stock market continues to make new all-time highs the S&P finally following and making a new all-time high of its own at the end of last week the most long anticipated promised recession of all time clearly has not arrived yet at least not for stocks what the hell is

Going on there and why is Bitcoin continuing to sort of languish as ETF hype subsides and gbgc continues to sell we’re going to talk about all of this it’s macro Monday I’ve got James lavish Mike mclone and Dave weissberger from the lobby of a hotel it’s becoming a

Famous thing you’re not really a macro Munday in until you do a macro Monday recording from the from the lobby of a hotel so James and Mike you’re gonna have to do that once I’ve done it before guys it’s mro Monday my favorite hour of the week let’s go Let’s What is up everybody I’m Scott mker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button we’ve got two guys uh doing this on West Coast time waking up before six o’clock in the morning to make it happen we got Dave

James and Mike Dave it takes uh being on West Coast time for you to make it on time three hours early yeah the commute was to walk downstairs to the lobby instead of to drive to the office so yeah makes perfect makes perfect sense uh so crazy we’ve got stocks at an

All-time high here right uh we’ve got uh I was trying to share my screen and failed there at the very beginning here’s a quick look at the NASDAQ as you can see on the daily chart uh it was right at the new all-time high on Thursday and Friday absolutely destroyed

It went from 412 up to about 421 422 and the S&P which was slightly lagging uh made a new all-time high closing at 48243 over 479 98 everything gapping up today markets across the world celebrating Blue Sky breakout Mike how are they talking about this on the morning

Call um well the our Equity strategies Gan is as you would expect everything’s up and you know how stock markets are are are they go up they’re going to go up and that’s what’s happening so everybody’s bullish that’s just what we saw in Bitcoin a couple months ago but a

Few weeks ago but the our Economist Anna Wong is is very much one-sided and she has one hand and and she’s impressive she thinks the um the regional surveys the isms are um the FED Regional surveys they’re all tilting negative um she expects 100 basis points of easing um

Fair value of easing this year which makes sense they tightened 100 basis points last year but um that’s the key thing our Economist is still pointing towards that recession but here’s the key thing is it’s elusive in one way so first of all what’s happening with the

Stock market it’s priced for fed e wonderful that’s great um but why should the FED e now because the stock Mark is going up it’s just silly so what might that might that might make happen is this elusive recession to get worse now we are already tilting that way in

Europe you see what’s happening in China and the effects of these interest rates basically there’s getting started so in the macro in my view is yes the stock markets going high so let’s dig into micro from a commodity standpoint If copper and crude oil can’t go up when the stock market’s making all-time

Record highs what happens when it has just a little reversion and the key places that the key indicator is Bitcoin versus gold bitcoin’s now down about 4% in the year gold Gold’s given back about 2% but that ratio to me has been one of my key indicators that I think it’s

Warning us now the Bitcoin gold ratio reached all-time high right when we had the biggest pump in liquidity ever in 2021 and those facts have changed that was a pretty high peak so that high was around 30 now it’s dipping around down the ratio is around 20 and to me this is

My key indicator and that if that Bitcoin don’t start getting going soon it’s going to think I think it’s gonna be an indicator that this stock market rally which is great it’s wonderful it’s making us all feel richer will actually might be as we say in Commodities Its

Own Worst Enemy because it’s taking the FED tight fed easy out of the picture and it just might make it worse so that’s that’s the Tilt but certainly from Commodities I’ll end with this the number one measure of heat electricity and fertilizing country us natural gas

Has D dropped down to about $2.40 per mmbtu that was first traded in 1990 so from my standpoint Global basis pretty severe deflationary force is accelerating yeah that all makes sense you said that everybody is bullish but uh I want to actually push back on that

Because last week or a few weeks ago on the show we showed sort of the 2024 expected expectations from multiple Wall Street firms and literally every them every one of them agreed AG with you and still thinks a recession is coming you remember everything was muted we were

Wrong in 2023 2024 will be the year it happens this is one of the lead articles here brevan Howard’s top Economist sees recession coming in 2024 this is pretty much consensus across across the board he says the FED is playing with fire when it comes to the employment side of

Its dual mandate to maintain a healthy labor market and steady inflation and then of course you have the FED to begin rate cut discussions but avoid teeing first one up it’s exactly what you’re saying now we’re talking about it it’s being priced in but maybe it’s not going to happen I

Mean James what do you think is going on here well I mean I I read that article uh this morning and he makes a good point talking about how the labor participation rate really dropped um pretty quickly this last uh this this last period and that and that’s an

Important Point um but the other thing is the the FED is saying the neutral rate longterm has they they’ve maintained the long-term neutral rate is 2 and a half% which we’ve been holding 3% above that for a while now and so again we come back to the FED will hold

Rates for as long as it needs until it sees something that makes them lower rates or inject liquidity and then it’s too late and so they always overstay their welcome so the question is when is the welcome kind of run up like when is it when is their welcome running out and

And when do we see that that that drop off in Unemployment uh the margin squeeze where do we see if we have some sort of uh credit event when does that occur but I do believe that unless something happens between now and March I I think that that the market is way

Overestimating the likelihood of a a March cut because we don’t have the the indicators that that the FED is going to say they need and to have as a as evidence that that they’re right and they should start losing rates so okay the words crackup boom mean anything to anybody

Here uh you know it it feels like that this this feels like you know from this from a stock perspective this feels like the the rally to whatever level it is before you know people start uh you know things start to normalize you know the

Fact of the matter is a lot of liquidity is being put in the system by the treasury the FED may be be te team liquidity out and losing money but you know liquidity as as I talked about last week is moving into the world uh it’s at

A higher price but there’s plenty of liquidity there and so the question is what are people doing with their money well you know we we we’re getting our our our January effect look up what happened in January of uh 2000 and you know it it kind of feels similar to me I

Said this before but I think that the the the needle might very well be people have to sell uh for capital gains taxes purposes in March generally you know in before tax day to me that it it it almost feels too Pat for that to be the

Case I talked about it last week doesn’t feel crazy now uh look I’m not I I have no dog in this fight yeah I don’t I don’t see it as I don’t see the stock market as as a good value by any stretch and I think that it’s overly discounting

You know 100 basis points of cuts they think okay well that matters but what James said is important neutral rate if we’re above neutral you would think that Mike would be right you would think that people would say okay I got to get the

Hell out but you know at the end of the day it doesn’t happen the market can remain irrational longer than than anyone can remain solvent so it’s really a question of do you fight the flows or not now as for Mike’s Point on bitcoin gold oh man I don’t there isn’t the

Other side of that bet is is where I want to be the fact of the map is and look you know I think that the likelihood of Bitcoin becoming digital gold is higher now than it has ever been in in our lifetime the network is triple

More than triple now where it was when Bitcoin last made an all-time high you know I I don’t know the numbers on the go on the ratio what you know in terms of price I only care about market cap bitcoin’s market cap is still you know

What is it 112th 115th Gold’s you know monetary value depending on how you want to look at it and I don’t know that it’ll get there this cycle but I think it the likelihood of it getting there is larger now than it’s ever been and if

You look at what’s going on in the world of crypto it’s completely unsurprising actually the most surprising to me is that all coins seem to be going are going down at the end of last week which is kind of to me that if if there is an early warning indicator in crypto to

What NASDAQ is going to do it’s the altcoin market because that’s where really the specul the real speculative juices are Bitcoin is doing exactly what one would expect given the amount of minor selling there was last week given the amount of of open interest decline

In the CME which we know drove a large part of the last rally and given you know the fact is is with that all of that uh the net inflows to the ETFs are not enough to offset the gbtc outflows and the outflows I just described does

That mean much not really we’re still in a trading range were still where you would expect and and one stat I’ll leave you with which is a very interesting one uh and it’s been true for a while now the number of days of rally that Bitcoin

Actually goes up is so small that do you really want to be on these Sidelines if that’s where you were at on a longterm basis and honestly that’s where I’m at on a longterm basis I think it’s the highest asymmetrical positive asset out there and we now have a tool for people to

Start putting money into it and by every measure of normal not crypto people but normal measures of success it’s been arousing success and frankly that’s with half of the of the retail systems not even allowing their clients to buy it so you know we can we can talk about that

And dig in more but there’s the flows are pretty are pretty strong and for a very good reason and nothing has really changed yet because no asset allocation models have added it and no ra systems have delved into it and you know they’re all looking at it and it takes time so

We’ll see how it goes yeah I think that Bitcoin is kind of trading in its own little vacuum at the moment you know I I don’t disagree necessarily when Mike says leading indicator at large but right now this is very specific what’s happening right I mean it doesn’t take a genius to look

And see $500 million a day in Bitcoin moving from grayscale to coinbase to be sold on the open market understand why it can’t go up right so Mike when you say know it’s got to go up soon or else I mean it just can’t while that’s happening there’s just not enough volume

Or buying interest to to which is funny because we’ve heard about these unlocks and Supply shocks and all these things uh over the years for Bitcoin this is the first one I remember actually mattering like you know Mount gox was gonna open and we’re dead and all these

Things well this time it it’s it’s pretty transparent what let’s start with gold as an example the total amount held in gold etps on the planet is about $180 billion it’s not a lot partly because gold is less than 1% of total Global portfolios typical Financial portfolios

And the main thing I’ve heard since I’ve been in the business is there’s no earnings okay so it’s more the some of the Boomers who like the Boomer rocks the people I know are involved in certain when you’re the gold bugs so maybe that’s an indication for Bitcoin

Yes bitcoin’s a hot newcomer and there’s what 200 maybe 25 billion in gbtc the big GLD of the space but it’s a key thing that people I think who are very very in that unique space of Bitcoin are forgetting about the macro Outlook and that is in terms of long-term investment

Returns um it’s compounding earnings of always the number one thing that gold and Bitcoin do not have now ethereum does and ethereum and the rest of the um cryptos at least have something to look forward to is ETFs will be launched in those products it’s just a matter of

Time bitcoin’s done it’s just made a major I think as we know as parents a major step in adulting and here we are you can do all you want with it easily with a push a button with your Schwab broker and do you expect the the returns

And the volatility of the past to happen no it’s going to get squashed into a trade like gold in my view and it’s been I I wrote about that five years ago so here’s the fact there and the key thing is I look at it this year is if I’m

Right in my macro great reset view it should happen this year I’m ready to fill or kill it and the biggest most significant asset on the planet that was part of WIP and was born of the great financial crisis was Bitcoin and it Peak with the biggest pump in liquidity ever

If you just study your history that’s how these things work and it’s been going down since 2021 the biggest pump in liquidity ever that makes complete sense now we have ETFs so I look at it the indications I see from Bitcoin gold from Commodities from the yield curve

You have to be careful and ignore the stock people okay great yes they made new Highs but this stuff usually happens and then when it usually sometimes those kind of things can last for decades um so let’s look at lately I’ve been watching China that is clearly imploding

China is a country that’s just in a severe deflationary reset right now and they just starting to figure it out so I look at from our standpoint this year what’s going to be the the trigger points it’s January yes it’s a January effect they pointed that out but now

What I the problem I have when I see people ask me why aren’t you Bulls crude o I’m like well you kind of look at it lately you have to look everything in connection with beta beta is S&P 500 when I traded a hedge fund we use the

S&P minis if beta is going up this much and these other assets that are higher volatility typically sometimes High beta are going down what does that mean when beta goes down and that to me is the key risk is thank God beta’s going up because what would that mean when beta

Goes down it didn’t say if now just here’s a key thing volatility in the vix VIX Index you just look at the 12 week average you divide by or minus fed funds it’s the lowest since 2007 yield curve fed funds and one extreme versus 30 are still the steepest since what 198 and

Like yeah okay it’s been early but we’ve also we’re in historic aberration of the biggest pump in liquidity ever that’s probably just going away yeah I’ve been early but I I I have to admit if it doesn’t happen this year the great reset doesn’t happen soon then I will cave but

What I see happen in Bitcoin versus gold is clearly heading that way you said not this year though and I think that a lot of people now looking to the beginning of 2025 because the election will be done yeah I’ll I’ll give up I mean these

Kind of things that I see happening are um quite historic and in the textbook I plan the right the history I plan the right would be kind of convoluted if it doesn’t work out this way but I’m willing to adjust to what’s happening in markets and this you know you can’t key

Thing you have to watch about the US Stock Market is it’s just look at versus China not so bad at least Japan’s catching up a little bit but it’s very completely us-centric very much um and yeah I get it there’s Wars going on it’s when people get bearish to Dollar like

Yeah good luck well you don’t want to be bearish to Dollar when there’s Wars going on there’s only one country in the world that provides open seeds and protection since World War II even before that but I’ll end with this a key thing also I still keeps I think the

People who are still po pooing this technology in cryptos need to understand that the most widely traded um cryptos and most of them oftentimes are crypto dollars stable coins and that a only goes up it’s is the technology totally agree James I mean where do you stand on what’s happening

With the ETF and this gbtc selling do you think that it stops anytime soon because man if if we were a correlated asset to the uh stock market which people have said for years we should be trading like 880,000 right now no I I don’t think it stops um in in in

The near term I think it’s just going to continue to bleed out because it’s got a 1.5% fee on it versus 0.25% on any other right so the the the margin there on fee is just so great that I think it’s it’s almost impossible for you to uh to look

At that and and and think that it’s a good value even though they’ve been in the space that running an ETF I mean ask Dave running an ETF is not that difficult uh you do have to have some you have to have some trading Acumen and

Be able to make the markets in order to uh to be efficient and match the underlying performance of the asset but that’s not that difficult especially with all the programs and machines we have now it’s it’s not uh something that that sets them apart in my mind so that

Argument from them is they’re going to continue to lose that argument every single day that they keep their rates at 1.5% so no I don’t think it’s G to it’s just going to stop overnight uh it will ease at some point and you’ll just run into these the the core uh holders that

That don’t care about the the fees and they think 1.5% who cares this is an asset that’s going to go up hundreds of of percent so who cares um but we’re not there yet in my opinion also we just have not seen the inflows from from registered investment

Advisers and institutions that that we would expect and it that’s actually uh you know if you step back and look at it that’s actually not that surprising you know it’s bullish and it’s not that surprising because it takes a while not just for all of these firms to get their

Their uh their pipes in place you know they have to when when we went just Just for information when we went to buy uh the uh the spot ETF for for a a volatility position that we were putting on for my hedge fund we had to instruct

Our Prime broker to go and add the qips to their systems in order to settle the trade that was on the morning of these things opening and that’s not that’s not atypical so you still have people out there who don’t have you have you have investment advisers out there who don’t

Have the the capability yet and then you still have the vanguards and the ubs’s and the merils who are pushing against it as hard as they can and so the the on-ramps are not there yet it’s going to be slow it’s going to be more like a

Trickle until it turns into a flow and right now it’s a trickle and it will become a flow the question is and I think that Mike brings up a great point is do we hit the economic skids before it turns into a flow because we’re still in a slow moving uh event driven

Situation with Bitcoin and the ETFs it’s still we’re still it’s still playing out kind of in slow motion every single day with gbtc and more and more managers getting access to it so um but do we have some sort of event or or do we have

A a downturn in Risk assets that Bitcoin that you you can say whatever you want this thing has led risk assets for a long time here for years and so it you know it is playing a dangerous game at this point and uh and it could easily correct and this is Bitcoin we’re

Talking about yeah it could correct down to the 30s no doubt about it uh but on the flip side you could see that that uh the supply side just dry up completely and it run 10 20 30% in a blink and it’s just it’s the reality of the way the asset trades

Still so there’s there’s two bits here um one there there needs to be coherence when one looks at how we value assets and understand them and I think that we we keep playing a game where we lump things together you can have it both ways either Bitcoin is a correlated

Asset or it isn’t and frankly over the last year God knows the last six months it isn’t now it isn’t for a reason and when you talk about the investment case for gold and and now the investment case for Bitcoin what you’re talking about is effectively the denominator on all this

Stuff yeah there’s no assets but how many how many dollars is the Fed printing every week now Jamesy pretty pretty fair amount and that’s the denominator by which you measure assets and so the whole point about gold exactly treasury yeah why own gold you own gold because you believe that

That the fat currency that of wherever you happen to live is being debased the dollar is the is the last to go will be the last to go and should be it should not be the one leading Bitcoin higher the thing is there’s a lot of smart

Money in the United States and a lot of people who look at this and say you know what I need something to hedge my dollar risk I need something to hedge that and I also look at it and then then you say to yourself wait a minute hedge what

You’re gonna you going to use your spending in dollars that’s the point Bitcoin every week I say the same thing when you look at the price the issue is will it achieve digital gold therefore it trades like an option that’s where its volatility comes from the fact is

That will Bitcoin be that denominator that people use to measure the basement that’s really it you look at the rest of crypto which is down significantly more it’s pretty easy to come out with a simple thesis which is where’s the selling coming from well who are the marginal buyers generally in the

Beginning they’re coming out of as China is getting murdered as Mike said it’s down another what 2 2.6% today this tiny stock market I think that’s what’s Weighing on on on the the crypto Market I think it’s pretty clear selling beget selling and I think that’s where the

Correlation is we tend to be so us Centric here but I think that us is still you know is not the driver anyone who went to token 49 last fall and you know this Scott the driver is coming out of Asia for crypto until the US gets their act together and so understanding

Price action without looking what’s going on in Asian Mark asset markets are probably not so good and that Al other reason that hurts correlations last point and that is that Bitcoin is in the middle of a retracement sure it went from 25 the day before Larry fank said

I’m G to do a Bitcoin ETF it peaked at 48 we do the math and look at Fibonacci retracement levels the the shallowest one was at 42 and a half the next one which is the most generally the average is around 39 a half you’re not going to see me even so

Much as think about sweating over my long-term long position even if it goes well below the second Fibonacci level but we’re not there and we’re not there in a world where the the marginal buyer of Last Resort which is generally out of Asia isn’t there right and that’s kind

Of important so you have to look at everything in that context as far as the ETF is concerned the trickle flood look Bitcoin is an option and therefore the narrative matters the last narrative the the last gas narrative that’s going on right now is Elizabeth Warren getting

Even more shrill with the G you know having convinced to how the GAO to say some stuff that if you read what the GAO said they even they didn’t even say what she said that’s right they don’t say what she said the fact is is you know I

Asked a very simple thing which is if Hamas tells their their donors not to use Bitcoin because it’s too easy to trace why or how does any anybody let her I know she’s being Community noted like crazy on X but that’s still our little bubble you know and and news

Media aren’t doing that because news media wants to let her play that game of control the fact is this year is all about this election and you know it really is it’s becoming a line in the sand does Elizabeth Warren get to continue to run the economic regulatory

Policy it’s a yes no question if the answer is yes then the US is continue to languish and we’ll see what happens if the answer is no I wouldn’t want to be short this stuff yeah yeah I I I was trying to find the tweets it doesn’t matter but you are

Correct that she once again tried to beat the drum on this narrative and was quickly uh people literally just showed screenshots of the report which didn’t say what she was referencing she literally at this point she’s just counting on you reading the headline and not the article I mean that’s effectively what’s

Happening it’s relatively but but but the last point that that matters is where where Mike and I agree and is is you know earnings and what’s going on look the fact is is I think the reason that the great reset hasn’t happened is because they’re kicking the can down the

Road again and they’re going to keep kicking the can down the road again this a presidential election year you know the odds that the Federal Reserve and the treasury are going to let really bad stuff happen probably not going to but that doesn’t mean that you can’t get a a

You know bubble prick like you did in in the 2000 presidential election cycle earlier in that year where you saw pretty severe correction in the tech stock area uh followed by a rally back followed by yet another correction into you know as we went into into 2001 it

Look got looking ugly on that stuff but you know that’s possible there’s no doubt that’s possible but a big macro bank failure run kind of thing no not going to happen because they’re going to throw a lot of liquidity into the market yeah Well’s let’s talk about that for a

Second so you know that btfp is is about to expire and so what are they doing is they’re conditioning Banks to go to the overnight window you know we talked about this last year I think I wrote All About It the banks don’t like to go to the overnight window because it’s got

Such a Negative stigma to it you know if you go to the overnight window it shows that you you are not you are a high-risk uh borrower desperate you’re yeah and so who you it puts you on kind of a a blacklist with other Banks to to lend but James

Didn’t they just announce that every bank has to aren’t they telling exactly so they’re conditioning the banks by saying that yes exactly Dave that they’re requiring Banks to go and use the facility it would be like you’ve got a Discover card and you have

To use it at least once a year in order to keep it or else they shut it down you don’t get access to it and so of course everybody’s going to do that they don’t want to not have or you have a personal line of credit at your bank that you

Have to use in order to keep it just in case of course they’re going to do it and so now it gets to the point where well yeah I I did borrow but you know it was it now you it just muddies the picture so it’s not like well City group

Is not going to borrow but if you have a small Regional Bank in Kentucky that needs some money and they go and borrow then the question is well did they borrow because it was under the Mandate or did they borrow because they needed

It and then you have to go and dig in it just muddies the picture completely and so by conditioning everybody to it being normal they allowed that liquidity to be injected into the market and kind of hide it and that’s you know that’s exactly what they’re doing they’re so

They’re going to shut down the btfp program and they’re going to open up the window and say Well everybody’s using it it’s not that big of a deal a few weeks ago here we were saying they would never shut it down though it does look like

They are well they’ figured out a way that I I think they figured out a way to do it because they what they don’t want is that black mark of saying oh we’re just injecting liquidity into the market and you know uh so they figured out a

Way that they’re probably going to be able to finagle through it and and you know uh thread that needle but the reality is they’re not taking away the liquidity that’s the that that’s what it it looks it appears to me that they’re not going to take away the liquidity and

That’s the bottom line so just go first principles have they shut off the liquidity or not well it appears that they’re not going to right go ahead Dave sorry I was just gonna say that it’s a big the with the 10year at four there’s a lot less

Pressure then when the 10year hit five it looked like it was gonna go you know go bad you know really bad uh and so you just watch the watch the flow of money that’s what they’re that’s literally what they care about yeah well you look at the tenure though the tenure is

Broken above that that uh downtrend right and Mike you’ve shown this this chart before I think it’s broken above that downtrend where for decades it was uh it was going down towards zero and now it’s broken above that and that’s a significant move to the upside for the

10 years so the question is how how long and how high how long does it stay above that how high does it go and when the when we do run out of that reverse repo facility and the the treasury is forced to go further out on the Curve

What kind of rates are demanded out on that curve to compensate for that that risk premium you know that’s that’s the question and nobody knows yet but we’re gonna we’re definitely gonna see it Mike’s gonna yeah go Ahad Mike I I gotta piggy up back on that one so first let’s

Start with if the US Cuts rates 100 basis points this year we’ll still be above the rates in the highest the biggest country in the world Japan’s twoe notes are zero Germany are already like 2.6 and China is 2.2 so that’s how high rates are in this country

Particularly if we kind a little bit of slowdown so I look at that 10e note Trend I that’s part of what got me to New York from the trading pits in Chicago was just saying hey yields are going down bond prices are going up a lot of New Yorkers disagreed I got right

About that one but what did it take to show a blip in the end of that train the biggest liquidity pumping ever and the rest three years ago we’re all going to die something that was completely unprecedented okay now we’re tilting backwards I see this in kamani

All Commodities are going back to where they were right before the big pump it was two 2019 levels natural gas has done it corn is very close Lumber has done it crude oil’s getting there they’re all going there despite this massive pump in liquidity it shows all the lessons of

History boom and bus is one book the other one I’m reading the price of time is another one I’ve read recently so when you get these big pumps and liquidity and assets pump they always go back down now we’re seeing it happen there’s happening in China questions

What stops it every day I read and when I talk to my colleagues it’s like there ain’t no one traveling all I see on CNN is everybody from China trying to get out and immigrate to the US they don’t have immigration problems which is a main thing but it’s the Tilt that way

And that’s why I think I’m Phil or kill right now the main main thing that’s pushing back on that Narrative of a global deflation and recession right now is the US Stock Market it’s awesome if it keeps going that’s my point about Bitcoin I think Dave’s right yeah so far

And and James this is just a correction but it’s a correction from lower levels after making higher highs in an environment that’s completely shifting so this is why I like to tilt over like let’s see let’s show me the beef stock market’s been doing but I’m not seen it

In Commodities I’m not seeing it in data and we have this little bounce in tenure note yield this year so my view this year is some of the best performing assets will be us long bonds gold and um that’s those two because it’s just the way it usually works in these type of

Cycles but I want to end with this one thing I do really enjoy Dave is when you point out Elizabeth War mean what better antagonist in the history of mankind than someone who’s fussy not the best attractive person in the world and says dumb things I mean this is if you want

To raise your hand and say I want to go down in history as someone who’s probably not really smart enough to figure out what’s happening with the world and going the right way it’s wonderful people do that but it’s the discourse in this country that’s awesome

You ain’t getting none of that in China it’s part of the problem yeah no I mean that that is that is certainly true look the crypto Community wants to make her into the human pinata and she wants to make us into into all speaking uh foreign languages or being offshore

Because she wants everyone in her industry gone but the reason why she wants her industry gone is what’s important here let’s let not lose lose touch with that and that is simple and that if your go worldview is to have eight banks that control most of the

Economy that she could put her thumb on the scales when she needs to from her seat on the Banking Committee to control the economy uh the best way to do that is to get rid rid of all potential competition to the next iteration of Banks and part of the btfp situation I

Am sure is the same thing you know it’s like we don’t want them to die but we don’t necessarily want them to grow either from the regional banking perspective and we still we haven’t gotten over our commercial real estate problem I mean nothing but I mean come

On you know it where’s all the people flooding back into the offices all around all around all the major cities the answer is it’s talk about a trickle there there’s a trickle there and that and Commercial Real Estate is still problem and it’s not going anywhere we

Haven’t talked about it in a while because people are like H well you know whatever it’s just it’s just you know I reminded of those cartoons where you know the the person says you know clean up the house and what do they do they lift up the carpet and they start

Sweeping everything under the rug I mean these problems these problems still exist but I think it’s exceedingly important for this show to understand my view and where I disagree is I see I read the tea leaves as the the monetary part of gold is not going away this

Cycle it’s not going away probably in the next 25 to 50 years but it’s going to get supplanted much in the way that silver did and I think that in a digital world Bitcoin has a much better chance of doing that and I just look at that

Market as differently I I look at ethereum and I look at the rest of the the altcoins though very much the same way that you might uh in terms of is there investment going into new infrastructures to do the new future because you know the in as Mark yoso

Likes to talk about the internet uh of information was a big deal but the internet of value which is what all of this stuff is about is potentially as big or bigger of a deal and we haven’t seen any of that yet I mean you know you

See it just compared to the stock market the entire market cap of all of that is less than any of the big seven you know companies just in the us alone so you know we’re looking at a small piece of the economy when we talk about this

Stuff and and that’s why I hate conflating it this way and nobody talks about commercial real estate anymore because it was supposed to crash and then it didn’t and then you just forget it’s like the banks right that’s how people’s minds work if they see a hyperbolic title or a prediction

And it doesn’t happen immediately then all of a sudden apparently it’s fixed yeah I gotta pigy back on what Dave said a little bit that’s part of the reason in 2018 we launched the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index because our thought was this is a proper way to get in and

Measure in for prop for investors to be in this space is use an index we not even close to that but it’s coming at some point it’s I mean rather than picking winners like one Bitcoin use an index yeah absolutely James do you have a comment I talk about

That so you’re about to have a comment because you said you know they’ll they’ll keep finding kind of hidden ways to make liquidity I tried to bring this graphic up actually kind of when you said it because they might close that btfp but as you said going to the

Overnight discount window there’s one thing they can’t hide right and that’s uh the extreme debt here as we kick off 2024 the US has already added another 200 billion in federal debt over the last three weeks this puts annual interest expense on track to hit 1.05 trillion to put this in perspective

Annual interest expense was less than 500 billion just two years ago so we’ve more than doubled in two years as interest rates rise and deficit spending sares interest expense is becoming one of our largest costs it is the biggest but there you go what’s the long-term

Plan here you guys want to see this isn’t is our interest expense what we that what we pay in interest on the debt going parabolic which it goes back to what Dave was saying is that we’re just injecting you know we’re we’re this is this is inflationary the deficit

Spending and so what but where does it stand and you’re seeing the interest expense but you know we did we added $2.6 trillion doll of federal debt last year and now we’re running at $2 trillion of annual deficit right so if we’re spending spending 6.4 trillion our

Revenues are are are about 4.4 the GDP is not keeping up and so you you know that’s our tax base so the the problem is if we if Mike is right and and my suspicion is right then we run into a uh a recessionary period here pretty quickly in this year then typically

You’re you’re your entitlement spending Rises by about 8 to 12% and then your because of unemployment Etc and then your your Revenue decreases by a like amount so just using 10% on kind of an an average for both of those you’re talking about your your spending increasing to over seven trillion and

Then your revenues dropping to under four trillion giving you a deficit of over three trillion and that’s ju that’s that’s so we’re running to this this this is the most important part about what you’re talking about Scott is that we’re running two trillion dollar deficits and we’re not even in a recession

Like this is just it’s it’s absolute Madness it’s lunacy so if and when we do hit a recession that’s going to go up by 50% and what do you think they’re going to do you think they’re just going to allow the GDP to drop off a cliff of

Course they’re not there’s no there The Playbook does not allow for it there’s not a page for that in the Playbook the page goes it it it goes go to page 99 which is print print again I they just print more pages in the book and that

And by the way that’s why the stock market is doing what it’s doing because in in people are like okay sure uh they’re go that’s exactly what’s going to happen and that’s why you know everyone’s looking at the at the level of interest rates and I keep saying it’s but it’s

The it’s the liquidity right you know that those deficits that money has to go somewhere and it look I’ve said this a lot on this program if you were sitting in the seats of power what do you want you want asset inflation and you want Capital substituting for labor because

That’s what allows you to print without causing a lot massive spikes in CPI in consumer inflation I’m not saying it’s G to be easy but so far they’ve been doing a pretty good job of of pushing back into that the problem with the recession

Is all of a sudden now they got to start putting money in people’s hands because they need it and that’s why they’re they’re going to fight tooth and nail against it I mean look they’ve been successful so far I mean we can’t argue with it just empirically

You know the the fact is outside of the labor force participation rate which I actually agree with Mike I think that is a very important indicator uh outside of that I mean it doesn’t look recessionary at all from the the top view um affordability of life you know you know

That’s that’s a different story but the fact is that liquidity is Meandering its way into Capital markets and which is the Lead Sled Dog the US Stock Market and it has been we have been so conditioned to debt in this country you know in in the Western Hemisphere right so but we have

Been so conditioned to it just look at the Consumer Debt is is is running at at ridiculous all-time highs now when does that you know of course the the the metric that matters is is you know the the the percentage of of payments on that debt you know on your on your

Income but which is not near its all-time high yet but it’s it it’s it’s increasing and so you’re seeing we’re the consumer outstanding Consumer Debt is over it’s $ 1.3 trillion doll it’s just it’s another chart that goes straight up so I mean and let me see if I can pull up this

Screen we’re g try to share a screen here Scott you ready think we can do it let’s do it man I was born for this ready you see it yeah there’s our there’s our Consumer Credit outstanding in how’s that how are we doing and this

Does not include buy now pay later so I mean at some point we’re just conditioned to it and people are like YOLO I’m you know I’m buying that I’m buying the Tesla and I’m I’m get it now it’s gonna be twice as expensive soon right yeah I’m gonna get the the uh the

Apple goggles or whatever you know although Teslas go down every day actually in price so that that’s an incorrect yeah yeah that’s because I bought one both buddy was doing to automakers essentially what happened a year ago what Ford did with the Model T um even there was a pretty significant

Inflationary period um in the 20s Ford still cut prices and Tesla’s doing that everywhere and it’s also happening like there was a good um recent update from BF Bloomberg new energy Finance they expected average battery price per me megawatt hour to stay on change this year it dropped 14% it’s where are the

Trends going it’s the two lessons that books the price of tomorrow by Jeff Booth a very bullish Bitcoin guy and the price of time is this stuff is just getting started and think about the narrative we talked about in China a year ago everything was fine now

Everything I see on BI China now is it’s tilting towards that significant normal deflationary recession what you pointed out with that unprecedented pump in deficit spending absent a war absent recession on the back of the unprecedented pump and liquidity that created make people feel really rich and wealthy

In lessons of History I’m doing reading um find I’m lagging but reading Ray Delia’s principles way you know I was kind of delayed on it because he’s too bullish China but all those less I haven’t started it yet yeah he’s just so bullish China but he wrote it he wrote

It in 21 when the narrative Chang it’s completely shifted now that’s my point is what stops these trajectories you need a typically a significant lag to significant am of fed of reserve eing and not one major country started easing yet they shouldn’t and they won’t until markets make them that’s where we’re in

That remember it’s only January how are we going to be feeling around August of course we’re going to have the election that’s going to distort things it’s the point is here’s a quote I’ll end with I heard from Goldman Sachs is if you look at the history of stock market

Valuations as far as they can go back they’re in the top 10 pertile of expensiveness Dave you pointed it out in terms of the 90% of the time where it’s cheaper and the US is the number one that’s why I say sometimes it’s like yes

I I love the narrative about us debt but compared to China I hear they’re almost um three times G that to gdps what I’ve heard Japan obviously we know that is we can’t get other data we’re this the the least you know the least worst of the

Rest of them and we have the an exorbitant privilege but it’s becoming um important in the polls now that we can’t just have this massive fiscal gemus why what happened what happened what was the lesson of too much liquidity that everybody hates the government for us too much inflation now

They’re not going to remember the fact that how bad it could have been if they didn’t do that all they know is every time they go to D buy eggs or anything it’s much more expensive and main reason expensive we just created too much liquidity so that lesson I think there

Is going to resonate for Lifetime it’s a great point and and you know U Scott if you can bring up my share again so here’s something interesting so just look at the we I I I wrote about the Michigan consumer sentiment Michigan numbers right the the consumer numbers

And so what’s really interesting is that we hit levels over the past year and a half that would be consistent with a recession right so if you you see in the recession we hit levels that is that’s really consistent with recessions but we didn’t have one why why did we not have

One because of massive deficit spending that covered it up it just papered right over it so people are feeling terrible prices are high they can’t afford things yet GDP is running why how does that how is that possible well because pushing on a string string yeah you’re pushing on a

String and so yeah consumer sentiment is coming back but you know I will and Dave and and Mike will will agree with me every single time look at look at where consumer sentiment is right before recession it’s always right at the highest level of that period and then it

Drops off a cliff I mean so when everybody’s feeling great that’s the time to get a little bit itchy and worried and that’s and so we’re not quite there but there’s something that just doesn’t add up here and I’m going to contend that it is the deficit spending severe deficit spending in a

Non-recessionary period that kind of papered over the recession and made it look like everything’s Rosy and so when you have you have politicians the White House up there you know claiming and and professional economists pH the economists up there claiming that people are lying their life is good it it

Doesn’t make sense everything’s great the economy’s running along biomics it it’s it’s not true and so yeah James I want to answer to that the wealth effect just you said it’s a number one thing I think it’s the personal wealth effect of any rational what 62% of people in this country homeowners their

Home the average pric has doubled in 10 years it went up 34% since Co because that’s money supply did yet they’ve been re able refinance down below 3% that wealth effect I mean I it caught me last couple week months ago I was with fley on the west coast of of Florida and

Point oh that condo traded 250 a couple years ago now it’s a million bucks I mean people are feeling wealthy question’s how long’s that last I mean it it the big problem is that the wealth effect goes to you know from the stock market is a

Big deal uh as well you know the House Effect yes but you know ref financing that Fig’s been closed now for a couple years so it’s really the stock market wealth effect but the problem with the stock market wealth effect is it is owned very disproportionately and so you know I’ve

Made the point that if you said if you took out a whiteboard and said Okay I want to create wealth inequality I want to create wealth in equality what would you do well you would have a a you would not have sound money you would have an inflationary monetary environment you

Would have fiscal deficits you would have high regulations to stop smaller you know smaller companies which are the engine of of growth and economic mobility and you would prioritize the stock market over Main Street Wall Street over Main Street and you know frankly that’s a there’s there’s a

Reason why some of the political sea changes you see going on exist right you know there’s all the if you listen to desantis’s speech or you know talk to V speech you know yeah okay they threw in the TOs they couldn’t beat Trump but who are they actually most concerned about

They’re concerned about the the uni party they’re concerned about the Democrats and the old line Republicans who actually have done this stuff for all these years and so this is the Wall Street versus Main Street rap and honestly look I spent most of my career on Wall Street but you know I’m in

Crypto because it is the tool to try to reestablish or or at least change that imbalance but that is a very big deal I mean it’s just think about3 trillion doll deficits with a mild recession what would a big recession do right I mean we’re these are people need to

Understand we’ve had the long to put it in in Mike’s perspective he likes to talk about oh the greatest you know thing liquidity in history that pumped the truth is this is the longest bull market in history I mean you’re going from 2009 through 2023 or 2024 now right

That’s why it’s hard that’s why it’s hard to bet on them uh letting it go tomorrow you know that if if anyone’s wondering why the recession never comes it’s because man they’re really good at this so far people are you’re really good at it until you’re not was it can we is it

Possible call me a simpleton I am but is it possible that we’ve had a recession this whole time but stocks have gone up so nobody is is willing to call it that uh every metric you’re showing is recessionary Mike proves it every single week like the thing is we saw them we

Saw them K the can we saw them Kick the Can on the definition right the recession used to be just you know NE whatever the you know two consecutive quarters blah blah blah then they said no that’s not what it means and then you can show another metric they say it’s

Not really what it means so if we can’t Define recession how do we ever know we’re in one anyways yeah it’s go ahead look at look what I just shared though Scott and this is another interesting data point is that look and this is just earnings you know it’s not

But this is this is who owns a stock market and remember the this this 10% of income earners own basically seven they own seven stocks that’s what that’s basically what’s going on here you’ve got you’ve got this that’s my point but that’s my point isn’t it recession for

You recession for you but not for me kind of thing if you’re on Wall Street or you’re wealthy that’s what but that’s what people are trying to argue is that I no this this is it’s not working for me it’s not I don’t understand why you’re saying that and that’s why you

Get in my feed at least I get a lot of the the uh retweets of ticktockers who are saying I can’t make my payments for my car I my my apartment I can’t buy enough food for my kids what is going on I have three jobs what is what is

Happening here and that’s because all three of your jobs are counted in the job numbers that are telling us there’s no recession exactly and and two of them are with the government so you know it’s crazy it it’s it’s Insanity yeah so I think my my new base

Case is it is a recession dummy right and that that’s my new base case I’m going to keep saying people are going to yell at me a lot H that’s thing I I that’s good point but it’s also Bitcoin has never experienced a recession so let’s let’s

Get through that that’s my point is I want to see it show the beef of outperforming beta in a recession and we haven’t had that but it’s all tilting the other way but I’ll think one thing I want to point out is the number one historic way to create um wealth um

Disparity is two there’s two good example there’s North Korea I’m sorry South Korea um North Korea and Singapore and how have we created wealth disparity in this country because just we expand so fast some get left behind and that’s just the way it works that’s you want

And un everybody gets left behind well not everyone I mean that’s 98 that’s a big difference in this country it’s the nature to give back and it’s happening more and more it just doesn’t happen right away but it’s just part of the the DNA of this country is

To give back once you because you you want to keep the system going for everybody it’s just use your way it works in the rest of the world I mean I lived in Europe for a year it’s that it’s that Old Guard wealth that that’s part of the reason my ancestors left um

But to me this tilt now is that um remember it’s early in the year it’s January it’s all that great opium kicking in and the realization is um what’s going to happen towards the end of the year that’s why I say this leading indicator Bitcoin it’s fill or kill and it’s

Killing I can’t believe it’s not because I was about to ask another question go Dave yeah please yeah I was just going to say that the Old Guard in Europe it’s that that is literally what has happened in the top of the democratic party and there are people in the Republican Party

The same way I mean Elizabeth Warren that is literally her goal is to to to stop the the expansion on the the broader base expansion it’s literally the exact opposite of her rhetoric because yeah that’s a much longer conversation I don’t want to go there you know in terms of the showing the

Beef I mean Bitcoin is an option repeat after me uh it’s a narrative and we’re not there yet and you know it it’s going to show it because of what I believe to be is the most likely scenario but you have to remember it that way anyway

Scott go ahead no we we ran out of too much too much time for me to ask the question anyway so I I love that uh you can wrap it in a bow there it just blows my mind that progressives quote unquote don’t support Bitcoin that’s the side

That should be 100% Allin on this rationally it helps the people it fights the banks which just lets you know that she’s literally like like you said it’s wagging the dog it’s projection right it’s saying look over there while I do all the things I’m yelling about right

And Max Kaiser and Stacy I don’t know if you guys saw they were on here on Thursday and she we we talked about Jamie Diamond and Stacy said that that’s what Jamie dime was doing he said she was projecting he literally went on a ran he said bitcoin’s for money

Laundering it’s for sex trafficking blah blah blah and he was like he’s Epstein’s Banker they paid $30 billion in fines for money laundering it’s like literally like here’s all the things I’m doing I’m gonna go blame them and it’s it’s really an astounding phenomenon it really is James it’s a contemporary you know

Media Playbook that’s that’s what you do you get out you get out and project on somebody else you know look they’re just about they want control they would they would like to we don’t have time to get into this and we can maybe talk about it

In the next show is they want control by rolling out cbdcs they want that and they’re trying to figure out how to do that whether they do it through bank CBD C cbdcs or they do the FED now program they do the FED CB they want cbdcs to

Control and it it’s it’s a whole another narrative that we can talk wrap around macro on next next week if we want to but that’s what they want it’s it’s simple let’s do a show on cbdcs that would be uh that would be fun I see people even saying it yeah it’s already

Happened crypto dollars the whole world went for dollars and they could have gone through the Juan un through cryptos they went for crypto dollars it’s what 98% of all stable coins yeah I absolutely agree guys that’s all we got 10: a.m. thank you uh Dave and James

James always early but Dave you got up you did the you did you did the lobby you get you get you get today’s uh participation trophy good job okay um and guys as always guys we’ll see you all uh back here uh tomorrow at 9:00 amm of course but uh macro Monday next

Monday thank you all see you next week Bye