Crypto Crashes – When Will It Stop? (When To Buy The Dip)

Bitcoin and altcoins are crashing. Join my guest, David Duong, Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, who will explain why we are experiencing this meltdown and what you can do to profit from it.

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #trading

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:20 Did crypto actually crash?
5:33 Who to blame?
13:00 Mechanics of the sell off
17:00 Upcoming Mt.Gox sell off
22:25 Where will the crash stop?
26:00 Ethereum
32:00 Bitcoin chart
37:40 Ethereum chart
39:00 Solana chart
42:30 Giveaway

If you were selected for a $100 prize please contact us here: mike@thewolfofallstreets.io.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.

Crypto is crashing when will it stop yeah I had to say it in a very excited voice I would say that crypto is actually in more of an orderly selloff but it gets more clicks if we say that it’s crashing but obviously Bitcoin dropping below 39,000 today just

Yesterday people were wondering if it would break 40,000 as it had held for so long as support what’s going on here when will the bleeding end and when should we start thinking about buying the dip I’m going to talk about that myself and of course I’m joined by an

Amazing guest today David Young from coinbase the head of institutional research I have a lot of questions actually about the mechanics of the ETFs and coinbase involvement so I’m really excited to have him here and to get all the Insight that he always shares you don’t want to miss this one guys let’s

Go Let let’s do what is up everybody I’m Scott mker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button Bitcoin currently trading at 38,6 74 is do checks price bad price as we say a little lower I think than a lot

Of people expected when we anticipated the $120 $30,000 God candle to the upside on the approval of the spot ETFs what’s going on on where is that bull market that we were promised or is this just the normal dip in the bull market that’s that’s what I think by the way go

Ahead and spoil it but I’m going to get David on here and we’re gonna talk about it you were not happy crypto crashes right not not a crash I well like you I don’t really assign that word to it I do not subscribe to that headline that you

Were posting for this video so how would you identify it I said orderly sell off do that is that I mean uh first of all I I merely admit that I thought that this would be uh you know by the rumor by the news and certainly that’s not what’s

Materialized here um and you know it kind of makes sense because we knew that a lot of the inflows wouldn’t happen till much later so that’s big part of it but I think there’s three things going on and one is actually what a lot of people identified already there’s just a

Lot of rebalancing that’s going on right now people moving from less efficient vehicles to more efficient vehicles so you’re moving away from let’s say uh micro strategy or other things that you play as a proxy for Bitcoin because you couldn’t get it access to the real thing

Now you’re kind of seeing it into that but of course there are also outflows from other pre-existing vehicles that are now kind of being moved but there are other important parts that have to do with the mechanics of the ETF itself that I think are far more important and

That actually has to do with the authorized participants and what they have to do with the issuers because typically what happens with this because the SEC forced upon us cash creations and cash redemptions which means that that you do not have the efficiency of actually doing the in kind cash

Creations redemptions this is important because if you’re an authorized participant basically you’re taking in these buy ORD sell orders for these ETFs uh you need to protect yourself because when you have it you’re sitting on like settlement times of t plus1 t plus2 before you can get that to the actual

Issuer itself and you need to hedge Yourself by getting access to Long Bitcoin theoretically if you’re directional because right now imagine most of these are creations and not redemptions but of course like I said it’s not for everyone they’re redemptions you and talking about grayscale and won’t say it guys okay go

Ahead I I know I’m very sensitive to these names um and uh you know effectively once the issuer creates the shares you give it back you know you give those shares to the uh to the AP and then you’re you’re done um but what if in anticipation of the fact that the

SEC Approved Cash creations and cash redemptions a lot of them said crap you know what I need to get access to some spot to protect myself inaday and maybe I’ll you know do that by actually going long spot and short the Futures because it’s a nice you know tidy way to kind of

Do this and if I’m wrong about this and they don’t approve that instead they allow like Inc con Creations doesn’t matter because I’m still up so it’s winwin so I think that what we’re seeing right now and this is just purely speculative it’s it’s a theory that I’m

Kind of operating with but it makes sense relative to all the volumes and flows that I’m seeing is that there’s a carryover of these like long spot positions going into it from the aps who are now kind of whittling down their supply so I think that this is kind of

Offsetting some of the positive moves we might other get in addition to the rebalancing flows and the fact that you know we let’s keep in mind here we are hitting some important liquidation levels on the way down uh you know like we saw that at the 46500 level we saw that

Again closer to like the 42,000 level and you know yeah 40,000 was a very big level the the good thing about this though is we’re starting to kind of get to the bottom of that and it doesn’t seem like there’s as much positioned like the bids at 40,000 were pretty

Great actually in terms of like the the the magnitude but there aren’t as many below this I think that it’s it’s much lower at this point so we’re getting closer to the bottom there’s a couple things I heard there quietly that you didn’t say that I

Want to say because you won’t agree I always make the tweet I when in doubt just blame SPF so we can once again uh partially blame SPF which is my favorite thing to do when when things go down FTX sold about 1 billion of gray scales Bitcoin ETF explaining much of outflows

You said this is part of the story obviously not the FTX part specifically but we know that it’s been 500 to 800 million is a day being transferred from grayscale to coinbase also as you said the mechanics of the underly right someone sells their gbtc shares gray

Scale then has to send BTC somewhere to sell to match the AUM of the actual underlying fund so that makes sense we just found out though that about a billion of the 2.7 2.8 so far that we’ve seen was directly from FTX also you talked about the authorized participants

And so in my mind I also get to blame Jamie Diamond because JP Morgan is one of the largest authorized participants of Black Rock and these other funds so in my mind I get to blamef and Jamie Diamond for the selloff I know I’m yeah and I won’t include any four-letter

Words in that but uh as you know he clearly will uh but yeah you know like I I think that that’s an important part you know and it’s this is kind of creating strange Dynamics in this market right because actually if you’re an authorized participant but you’re a

Broker dealer you know like part of the reason why why the SEC wanted you to be able to only do cash races redemptions is because you wouldn’t actually be able to touch the real stuff right you couldn’t touch the spot Bitcoin so these guys have to hedge themselves going you

Know long CME Futures which of course AR inefficient and then closing it out like at the end of the day um but this is kind of creating weird like Dynamics within the market I mean it’s not any major risk it’s just like it’s kind of obca like where the flows are going it’s

Interesting though because we’ve had the narratives major unlocks and impending selling from different entities over time and they never seem to materialize this time it’s pretty straightforward you know with I guess with the level of transparency that we have but when you see 500 million to a billion dollars

Every day being effectively sent to the open market to sell price really can’t go up during that period it would take such incredible demand to do it I mean if you look at these ETFs in a vacuum and you eliminate gbtc see from it and keep in mind in past ETF launches of

Other asset classes you didn’t have an overhang of $27 billion dollar already existing on the market right in a vacuum they’ve done exceptionally well some of the most successful ETF launches of all time but it’s just been so much selling pressure yeah what I suspect is also

Happening too and I I think this Cuts directly to some of the aps who have M portfolios that haven’t yet been included in this you know we we’ve heard from like Arc for example who you know move taking out their Holdings of grayscale for example and then kind of

Replace it with their rc21 shares ETF which makes perfect sense but you haven’t seen a lot of other funds starting to include it yet and you really need to see that for the real inflows to kind of show up and I think that if you’re some of the aps what

You’re doing right now is just waiting to see where the liquidity is ultimately accre to because that’s what you want when you put that into your model portfolio so I think there’s a bit of that going on I think there’s a bit of the fact that for some of the authorized

Participants as well I mean like they’re also trying to say like hey you know what like is there any Arbitrage we can do because right now there’s certain like premiums discounts that occurring in the market whenever there’s that deviation from price of nav you also see that they’re putting in like maybe fewer

Uh you know creation basket creation shares and would otherwise you know have been from the orders they actually received in order to kind of take advantage of that so you know there there’s a lot of Dynamics play right now that’s kind of hard to trace back to the

Point where we can say the ultimate impact on Price is this yeah I don’t think it was easy to anticipate what would happen when all of a sudden you know 10 or 11 of these things hit the market at the exact same time it seems always so obvious in

Hindsight shouldn’t we have known that literally everybody was going to start selling their gbtc a because of the 1.5% fee B because they’ve been locked in there for so long and C because there were a ton of people who have no interest in Bitcoin and were just

Trading in that discount to nav BET right so you have like these three entities that were effectively guaranteed to leave gbtc maybe we just didn’t understand the numbers I think it begs the question since we have a great hindsight what does it mean looking forward how long can this keep going

People keep saying to me they have 23 billion left so at 500 million a day that’s 46 days it’s not going to zero gbtc is not going to zero right that’s a nonsensical math that people are trying to do there’s going to be a point

They kept at a 1.5% fee for a reason right like I don’t think that if they really thought that this was going to zero I don’t think they would say like hey let’s be completely uncompetitive with all the other ETFs out there they definitely did the math or at least I

Would imagine they they did yeah kind of saying like all right who are the people who could leave this where there probably GNA be people who are gonna be fee sensitive who are maybe in tax advantage accounts who actually can leave us but there’s going to be a lot

Of people who actually probably can’t because because the tax implications of actually leaving this fund are greater than actually just kind of staying 20 25% whatever it is your capital gains taxes on your gains from that discount trade and just to you know gain a percent of of fee difference you can’t

Unless you’re unless you’re intending to hold for the 20 or 25 years and it’s going to take to make up that difference yeah I mean I don’t like I think that’s why people were kind of too critical of GR skild be quite honest with you I I think that what they did

Was in some ways kind of smart I mean they’re optimize for themselves if if they if they if they put their fees at 0 2% they’re they’re finished right I mean grace they they need this business it’s the cash cow for dcg for it to exist I think they really

Had to do this to to make enough money I think there’s some irony here that obviously everybody’s pointing out Grace Gale led the fight for Bitcoin ETFs now it’s fund is bleeding billions right I mean that’s the truth is that Grace scale had the the most to lose by the

Conversion but really had to be the champion of it if others were going to convert and the Very fact that they went to court spent their money and their resources to do it and beat the SEC is the only reason we have these it’s such a strange sort of bipolar

Situation yeah and you know like that’s what I find it odd now because people say like well didn’t they like uh aren’t they The Architects of their own demise because by allowing the conversion to an ETF they’ve suddenly allowed these outflows I’m like and what was your old

Alternative to never allow people to get out let everybody else get an ETF and you never let people out of your trust it’s yeah it doesn’t so it doesn’t compute in my mind like I I understand the argument but it’s just like that’s that’s not how the world works I mean

Like we operate on trust this is what crypto is about like we’re trying to like create a trustless environment but like there these are still vehicles that we need to kind of keep in mind that you know like you need to get people you need to create an exit for people so uh

Just for some clarity and not because you’re at coinbase but we obviously see that uh the BTC is going from grayscale to coinbase in these large amounts what are the mechanics of that being sold off does it literally hit the order books is there an OTC desk that handles some of

That and to be clear this is completely segregated from custody which I’ve seen some bad takes about yeah I think well so I I can’t say much about the processes to be quite honest with you um at least I’m not allowed to so unfortunately I got to

Like kind of leave that off but yeah I think that for most people they don’t really recognize that this has to kind of this the sourcing of this stuff has to come from somewhere and this has kind of all been lined up already I think

That there were a lot there was a lot of speculation of like where is this kind of Bitcoin coming from from the iser side because it can’t come from the authorized participant side of things um that has all been kind of like at least for the eight funds that Co base is

Custodian partner for like that’s already being managed so that’s what I can say on that side so it sounds like we can blame SBF I can blame Jamie Diamond and I can also blame Gary gendler for giving us this cash create uh structure and not allowing it to be

In kind I get to blame all my favorite people it’s a bit of a burden I mean of course we the headlines right now too we’re getting like the the mount go head uh overnight and we know that coming out and that’s that’s important but like yeah you know like the

The idea of the cash Creations cash redemptions it’s actually significant as far as the impacts that we’re seeing but I mean overall I think that the flows that we’re going to get over the medium term and long term too it’s highly dependent on the due diligence that a

Lot of these Banks broker dealers need to do they haven’t conducted yet like not at least not all of them some of them are in the process some of them actually come fairly early um but still overall like these guys have restraints on the amount of liquidity that needs to

Be available the amount of performance that you need to see before they can actually recommend this to their clients thresholds in terms of how long these ETFs need to be around for as well so I think you gotta kind of keep this in mind because I think this is the first

Phase of the flows and it’s unreliable like I think the day-to-day headlines we’re getting right now in terms of like grayscale like kind of getting this much in redemptions versus this much like other funds getting this much in uh you know cre it’s not even the full data

It’s not even the full data I mean these guys will be the first to tell you right I mean here’s James safeer obviously everybody just follows Eric balunis and James saford from Bloomberg now to understand this woof bad day for Bitcoin etf’s overall in the coin Tucky Derby

Gbtc saw over 640 million flow out today outflows aren’t slowing they’re picking up there’s the largest outflow yet for gbtc total out so far is 3.45 billion don’t have black rock data yet and then he’ll open the go on when you read it he’s like yeah we don’t really have the

Full black rock data we don’t really know so you get the headline and then you get the admission that you can’t really analyze this data but we do know exactly how much you know gbdc is being sold and how much Bitcoin is being sent from Gray skill those are the pretty

Pretty uh fixed numbers we can see yeah but those are the numbers we can see I mean the the most critical number we want to understand performance really is what’s the available Bitcoin Supply being held by the APS right now like what are they holding in order to hedge

Themselves on intraday basis because I think that we’re getting to the end of that and we’re going to start seeing the other side which would be the supply Crunch and that’s going to be hugely performative for Bitcoin like uh in the weeks ahead but like I I think what

We’re going to see is like that’s gonna that’s gonna hit like we’re gonna get back to the other side and we’re not going to have enough supply of Bitcoin in order to kind of meet that demand and then bitcoin’s gonna be ripping and then people are be like well why is this

Happening but I don’t really care because bitcoin’s going up but like you know like this is this is going to be the conversation that would help you understand that but I think that um there are a few who are who are trying to get to that figure right now so how

Can we attempt to quantify when this selling might might end you did mention which is and I brought it up breaking mcox confirms creditors Bitcoin addresses for repayment chance of 200,000 Bitcoin H the market over the next two months ah what’s another 200,000 first of all this is not right I

Believe malox has 137,000 Bitcoin not 200,000 so take that7 yeah yeah somewhere in the I know it’s I know it’s less than 150 and it’s not 200 yeah um and and the experts I’ve seen like Alex Thorne from Galaxy quickly jumped in and said he can’t imagine that you would see

Any of this selling until at least summer so the two-month timeline seems uh sources I made it up but we’ve been hearing about Max Mount go selling since literally the day I fought my B bought my bought my burst Bitcoin I was gonna say but bought my first Bitcoin so

No you already first time it was your burst Bitcoin yeah no for for forgive me for uh being desensitized to mount gaw’s fud here but this would be another form of significant selling pressure but listen literally we just saw you know nearly this amount or at least half of

It hit the market in five or six days and you can’t even assume that these people are going to sell I think most of these people hold it yeah I mean like a lot of them actually sold their position to uh a third party for example and you

Know their indications we’ve gotten so far is that they’re not going to be selling we know 20% of that Bitcoin is already spoken for by like though like one of those entities for example who already said we’re not doing that we’re not going to dump like the Bitcoin onto

The market so it’s actually far less than even the numbers that we’re quoting right now um yeah and this takes time as well you know like this isn’t going to be like they’ve had to delay this multiple times because it was hard to align everyone’s like kind of payment

Instructions for example which exchange this going to did you see that they double paid people on PayPal no I didn’t see that really it’s like was quietly news and somebody told us about it on Spaces I haven’t looked it up but apparently I will say but Apparent from

A reliable source that they accidentally double paid the creditors they were paying out on PayPal and have asked them to send the money back one guy was like clearly was like there was a story that he was like no come and get it you know for my for

My H cold dead bare hands cold dead hands whatever but yeah they already B this this process to which I joked it must have been like you know the SEC interns that were handling their uh or coin Telegraph interns maybe handling the distribution but it’s unbelievable so apparently they’ve already have blown

That and now there might be less money for these other creditors you’re pretty Savage today to Scott you know it’s Tuesday I woke up no I don’t know I that I I still can’t get over the way that these ETFs were rolled out and the SEC

Hack of their tweet and it almost I I not a conspiracy there I don’t think this is true but they really managed with the process to dampen any excitement that was there and to basically just take all the volatility that was going to be there for the lunch

Out in the days and weeks before yeah yeah I mean in some ways I uh what we saw in terms of like the purges that occurred due to like the the weird bungled kind of launch or at least the the bungled approval rather um kind of made me feel

At least like the market was somewhat cleared out but yeah I liked that clearly it didn’t the week before on the uh Matrix Port report that for somebody for some reason everybody took his gospel I mean that that cleared the market I think it was 500 million in

Open interest in 10 minutes it was the biggest liquidation event I think we’d had effectively since FTX so it needed it to your point yeah I still can’t I still can’t say for sure that was the the was the but that wasn’t the trigger per se because it was getting stupid

People were buying perss at like higher and higher levels I mean we saw to start the year that like you know like the funding rate on those per were like 35 to 40% I mean like they were they were nuts um people it like the Longs were

Just way too expensive so I I feel like clearing that out I mean it was just a reason it just gave people a reason to but I don’t think it was why like you saw like on crypto Twitter like everyone was like what information do you have to

Base this idea on that they’re not gonna prove it because Democrats man yeah the it made for really entertaining time on Twitter though it was great great commentary but yeah to your point we always see an excuse sort of attributed to any Market move in hindsight right it

Had already started moving it was a liquidation Cascade it was the highest funding rates I think we’d seen literally ever uh or close and the largest open interest wipe that was just somebody literally triggering a liquidation Cascade and making a hell of a lot of money and then everyone

Searched for what could be the bad news of the day nobody read The Matrix Port report there was nothing factual in there that said that uh that was going to get rejected it took all the week for it to get approved it’s such I mean it’s just hilarious how this Market operates

And now I will say though on this drop I think we do have a more solid narrative I’m still trying to dig in on when this might stop I think I sort of asked but we we didn’t get there a lot of people saying 35,000 a lot of people saying we

Go to 30 32 I don’t think any of it matters do you think that any of those numbers break the idea that this is a normal retracement in a bull market no I I don’t think so I think that we are seeing this as a complete

Like I think the floor first of all is probably above some of the levels you’ve mentioned um but I think that we are going to see retracement here like for the reasons I’ve kind of stated right I think that if my theory is correct there’s going to be Supply exhaustion at

Some certain point and that’s where things are going to come up and then they’re going to come up huge and I don’t say this because you know people are buying the ETF it works both directions yeah like you you I’ve been on the show before where I’ve seen it

I’ve had directionally like negative views as well like I am very much of the mind that like this is going to be a positive move up um and it’s gonna like climb above the levels like we’ve seen like last week and and the week before

Like there’s no doubt in my mind um and I think that you know there are certain challenges on the macro side of the equation but right now things are lining up positive on that side as well like I mean you’re seeing how the move in tech

Stocks is going like all the news is kind of suggesting that the econom is doing well at least in the US you know and like why not take advantage of that I think that you’re going to see people want to move further down the risk

Curve yeah I agree and I was just trying to pull up the article but China is going bur right now right I mean talking about stimulus and money coming coming in I think it’s like a300 billion package of course we’re not reacting to it but it’s interesting that people

Always complain when we’re correlated to other markets for temporary periods of time and now the same people are dying for a correlation as stocks uh make new all-time highs across the board I mean we only make as human beings we only have so many things to make like our

Decisions on you know unless yeah like we want to tell all all of our like fans like hey you know there’s a secular reason for you to own Bitcoin and by the way it’s going to be great for your portfolio because it’s going to diversify it so even if it does go down

It’s going to offset some of your other positions all this kind of stuff but really when people make these things the decisions on what to buy and what to sell and what to put in their portfolio you know you you’re you’re doing it on the same kind of information that you do

Anything else and a lot of that has to do with like how your sentiment is like what’s your macro view what’s your like idea about what you how wealthy you feel you know like those things are kind of what matter the wealth effect yeah Mike mclo who’s obviously like always

Exceptionally bearish on Mondays that’s his sort of base case is it’s still the wealth effect as long as people still feel rich there’s really no problems out there they’ll just keep spending themselves into a into a massive hole but it is interesting to see how completely detached from macro we’ve

Become and it’s been for quite a long time people are pointing to it now but I mean Bitcoin has not traded with macro it’s been like a year you know at least eight or nine months yeah I mean I would say that of course a big part that has

To do with the you know secular stories around or rather the ETF story itself and you know like right now I think the technicals are probably more important than the fundamentals somewhat because understand the mechanics of like the APS and the issuers and what has to

Be done and how like how this is impacting like the CME Futures Market the purpose market and the spot market and how those things are intertwined it’s probably more important itself than trying to say like what is the correlation between Bitcoin and I don’t know tech stocks you know like

It’s it’s not the the key driver at the moment so is there anything else I missed Before I Let You Go that we should be watching I mean eth probably like I I think that’s the big one thank you yeah can you tell us why I mean I’ve

Been beating the eth drum it’s like six months ever since it’s started bottoming here I’ve been saying uh that is not an indictment it’s an opportunity and uh the more people call me dumb the more convinced I get that I’m on the right side of this one but why why do you

Think we should be watching eth well I mean we kind of overlooked e right if you’re a crypt native for example and you missed the boat on Bitcoin in the second half of last year for various reasons right it’s probably not entirely their fault like Q2 was kind of kind of

Rough Q3 was was worse and then you were kind of under position and then you said oh crap Grace got W their case Black’s got an ETF application I got I need exposure to that but I’m I’m a little bit behind the curve so you went ahead

You jumped eth and you went into altcoin to kind of capture your Alpha well now we’re getting into 2024 where you say spot Bitcoin ETFs fully approved that means crypto as an asset class is formalized which means there’s a benchmark and whether you like it or not

That Benchmark has two key assets one of them is Bitcoin and the other one is ether like they are the ones that the two tokens that make up the bulk of uh the market cap so right now if you own salana and it performs it doesn’t

Perform well you know it can kind of hurt you in some ways if it performs like oh that’s great you know like and and that that’s wonderful for my portfolio but if I don’t own any eth and eth start to do well my boss comes to me

And says like hey you got to do two things you got to buy Bitcoin You Gotta Buy eth to meet that Benchmark why aren’t you doing that that is career risk and I think that that’s what’s going on right now and of course yeah we have the spot eth ETF possibly coming

Towards like the third week of May for example and that’s hugely important and that’s a big factor to kind of watch out for but I really think that because of this under positioning that people did like you’re starting to see that rebalancing occur like from the whole

Like oh man I I I might have been over indexed to altcoins I gotta pull it back and kind of start being there because that’s what people are watching me for like I got to hit my Benchmark which is Bitcoin and ether the first thing Larry fin said after the Bitcoin spot approval

Wasn’t I’m so excited for the Bitcoin spot approval it was we should have an ethereum spot ETF approved you know he started beating this drum within 24 hours of the approval he had already moved on from I guess what he knew was a forgoing conclusion of the

Bitcoin spot ETF and that was only part of it and by the way anyone who is trading a gbtc discount eth which is their comparable product at grayscale for ethereum was trading at a 55.9% discount so obviously people have been taking that trade but it’s still at a

14.74% discount which means that if you do believe in ethereum spot ETF will get approved that you can effectively buy ethereum at a 14% discount right now by taking the same trade it’s just all it doesn’t have to repeat but we have the same road map we just saw it right and

Also I the more people told me that salana was replacing eth and eth’s dead and we don’t need it anymore when just last summer the merge was the huge event it just seems like it’s the Forgotten you know the baby being thrown out with the bath water to

Some degree and I’m glad that you brought that up because it gives me a chance to to smile because I really do think that eth’s going to be the next big narrative in the next big trade as for Bitcoin I agree with you I think

We’ll go back up into the 40s but now since the ETF trade is done I’m going to tell people I think my base case as I’m formulating it is a lot of chop until after the summer in a big range but you know I think now we go on to the normal

Having cycle uh assumptions and trades and which means boring summer and then you start going up in August September and October through 2025 Maybe I’m Wrong I think we can recover sooner than that oh I think we’re going to recover I’m saying before we start breaking 69,000 you know new

All-time highs and such H that’s fair I mean the timing of this is going to be tricky because there’s you know there are things that come out of the word work and uh we forget about them sometimes like I even talked about Mountain go and my crypto Market Outlook

And I was just like oh that’s right like got like those headlines you know like so it’s hard to anticipate but yeah we’ve got the uh having coming up as well and I think that that context dependent but that’s going to be important um the situation whether like

There’s another banking crisis you know like we saw that calsters over in you know ass for $30 billion like uh liquidity because they have to deal with a 52 billion doll commercial real estate portfolio so the real estate like you know uh Regional banking issues that we’ve dealt with last year aren’t fully

Resolved com around come yeah yeah we were talking about that yesterday nobody’s talking about commercial real estate anymore because it just like didn’t crash the week they expected so must have gone away everything hasn’t at all y all right well David man thank you so much

For joining I I love having you on always so much great Insight uh we got to get you back on hopefully uh more regularly and now you have an actual uh Twitter account so people can follow you down below you had like a total burner for all those

Years I think everybody should follow I don’t know how much it says on there too like because I was pressured by Scott meler that should it should I there was a lot of pressure I was like come on man I got to be able to tag you it can’t be

Like d to the Double D whatever the name was before what was it it was something like that I was DD that’s 3DS I mean it’s super simple to to remember right yeah DD that’s 3DS I mean I remember the gist of it and I have ADHD so I’ll

Consider that a win for you guys to follow David please man thank you very much I see you hopefully very soon thanks thanks for having me Scott yeah man all right so uh I think we all understand at this point why things are dumping for once which is a good news

I’m going to try to open up a few charts uh Wick is not going to be here today but that gives me an excuse to show you a few things that I am looking at uh and what I’m interested in so first of all we have kind of one of those nightmare

Scenarios right now this is Bitcoin dominance we love when Bitcoin dominance goes down because that means that alt coins are outperforming Bitcoin but you know what we don’t love when bitcoin’s going down and Bitcoin dominance is going up because that means that bitcoin’s price is going down and your

Altcoin are going down more stinks it stinks we don’t want to see that but is that a problem or is it an opportunity let’s first take a quick look at Bitcoin this is the Bitcoin having chart that I’ve showed you guys a million times plays out almost every single time

Almost exactly the same first of all I might have pointed out to you guys but we did have bearish Divergence with overbought RSI on the weekly chart there not uh the best news now what you’re looking for we had a million top signals kind of uh on the way up here uh but

What we do generally see my kind of base case for that sideways this is if you guys look this having the last having was in May kind of chopped sideways a little up and then came back and it really took until September October you guys might remember actually it was like

October 1st or something the market went absolutely parabolic and went straight to the upside so you had from May until October of basically sideways action previous highs right here and started its up move in January so another you know sixish months of kind of sideways shop after the having before that up move

That happens for a reason guys people get really excited about the having but this Supply shock that comes with the having takes a really really long time much like ETF buying to start to affect the market so that’s why it’s kind of becoming my base case I mean we talk

About uh there’s obviously trading Alpha if Wick was here he’d tell you about this but if you were watching Trading Alpha you’ve seen that it turned to red dots this indicator is down in the description guys this is my go-to at this point Wick comes on and shows you

Why every week lost the track line turned to red dots up here this literally gave you the cell signal at 47,000 I was not paying attention because uh I’m done broke the track line still on the way down no indication uh that this is going back up at the exact moment now

You really probably want to wait till you see the red dots stop and break back Above This sort of 41,000 unless the track line continues to come down I mean take a look at it on the line chart which I always like to do we do have potential bullish Divergence forming on

The 4 Hour 6 hour as well but we need to see a very clear elbow up in RSI here right this is not bullish Divergence yet uh but it is good to see that we’re finally oversold on the 4 Hour and the six hour the problem is we’re not

Oversold yet on The Daily and I may have told you guys it’s not on this chart but I I have it if you guys were following the newsletter I got pretty bearish last week I was a little late but this is massive bearish Divergence here here massive bearish Divergence here both overbought

RSI so now dropping we have RSI 33 I’m looking we always go from overbought to oversold and back so we’re going to roundtrip that at some point jumping in here on the weekly this is really coming in there’s that bearish Divergence that I’ve been sharing in the newsletter uh

RSI already back down to 57 but this is a big zone for me you guys might remember I’ve kind of 38,600 this area right here as a line not as an area was the area that I was looking at as main resistance on the way up you guys might

Remember this is where we broke down from Luna so when we were on the way up we were screaming this is the key resistance going to be really strong you saw one two three took four weeks of tapping that area for it to even break through that was where the selloff from

Luna started so hitting that back through on the way up was a big deal it was never tested as support guys this is totally normal for us to come back down here and test this area as Support also on the weekly chart something I showed people mostly in the newsletter because

I don’t do many charts here but uh every single having cycle you have a move at some point back up to the golden pocket for those you who don’t know what the golden pocket is it’s the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement up to around 65% that’s not a Fibonacci level but

That area 61.8% to 65% is considered the golden pocket in all markets if you take the drop from 69,000 down to the lows at 15,46 that golden pocket brought you between 485 and 50,2 61 also with this key resistance from back here in March that’s where we were rejected hideous

Weekly candle right here and then continuing on the way down that 38.2 looking pretty inviting right here around 36,000 to be honest with you as I look at this um so yeah that was also another clear signal I mean this is a terrible candle with the WIC up Tombstone graveyard gravestone Tombstone

Brains gravestone dogee uh heading back down right so a lot of signals the one that I laugh at is that yeah people were yelling about this Golden Cross and I always laugh at Golden Cross on the weekly they never play out the way you want this was a death cross price went

Up here’s your Golden Cross price went down if you longed the Golden Cross you literally longed almost the dead top so don’t play Golden crosses uh because yeah it’s it’s pretty dumb anyways but what am I watching as a result of all this so first of all I am starting to be

Interested in buying the dips down in this area I have bids here and I will be bidding all the way down to 32,000 I think that this is our normal 30% retracement in a bull market no big deal I want to buy it but there are other things that I’m also looking at

Obviously as I’ve said still looking at eth showed you guys against Bitcoin we have four times in history it’s ever been oversold all of those were huge big massive bottoms this was oversold with bullish Divergence RSI has broken out and of course now rejection right here at this resistance I would expect that

We kind of dwindle down and eventually make that break up ethereum starts to outperform bitcoin that means other alt coins are probably going to go too I had Mike Alfred on the show people got super freaking pissed off at us when he was saying I said it might get to 135 he was

On the show right here and he said I’m shorting the hell out of salana 120 to 130 is an absolute gift to short this thing it’s going way way way way way down now I’m actually curious to pull the Fibonacci levels on this so the 61.8 it didn’t even get up

To the 61.8 on on uh salana but I’ve been saying for weeks and people yell in my face every time to be frank I think it could go lower but it might not get there but 77 to $75 I have bids sitting on salana right this was a

Huge area I would even would almost pull this to here to make it yeah and we’re in it to give it this top here this is the last support before you get down to like 50 bucks I mean maybe these two candles right here offer some support

But it’s by here so I’m bidding literally down to $48 on salana because I want to own more salana going into the bull market and it’s now at a discount uh it was trading up to $127 last month last month so hey let’s uh go

Ahead and just bid and hope it fills now that I extended that zone I might go just start buying today it did tap that toone I think $80 I don’t want to get greedy at 77 I’m going to buy some Sal today go ahead tell you guys that um and

I’m ready to continue buying down to 50 bucks by the way I think this rages in the next bull market and this is about as big of a discount on an asset you like that you can possibly uh anticipate and expect that’s all I’m really watching right now guys like I know I’m

Boring I don’t do the shows where I go next 27,000 per G by yesterday in September of 2019 it’ll hit not my thing but I will tell you I’ve got some news that I’m working on this is not finalized I’m not supposed to say anything but it man you’re my

Friends uh you guys might know that I do crypto town hall with Mario knul and ran nunar ran obviously has a significant YouTube presence but Mario and I are working on a partnership right now uh effectively where he will become a you know half partner in my company I’ll

Become a significant partner in his company where we can massively expand my YouTube channel and potentially new YouTube channels and Twitter spaces uh with me transitioning a bit into the mainstream which means we’re going to be theoretically doing up to four shows a day on this channel I’ve obviously been

Doing the 9:00 a.m. eastern standard time slot I’m probably going to add my own show which will be more trading heavy uh between 3 and 3:30 Market Mavericks on Thursdays has been really successful for us uh and so I think that’s great and shows that we can do

Numbers at 9:00 am and 3 pm if you guys are wondering the algorithm hates channels that do more than one show a day so you have to give it like a six hour gap I’m giving you all the secrets now at least like a six hour gap in

Between or else it crushes your first video of the day before you get to that second video right um and so we’re looking at maybe doing shows at like 9:00 am 3ish p.m 9900 p.m. and then one in the middle of the night for people in

Other places that’s not all going to be me obviously so getting more hosts uh getting more Alpha you’ll get more of those shows potentially where they do really dig deeper than I can into all coins and things like that but I really want to expand this channel as always

Like I get really itchy uh at whatever level I’m at that I need to be doing more and so uh working with his team all this time uh it’s been really great uh they’re absolute machines and I think you know with Misha and I here and them

I think we can expand massively I’m also exploring the idea of a entire macro Channel based on macro Monday uh to separate sort of the crypto from the macro which I think would be pretty sweet but yeah we’re going to be expanding a lot there’s gonna be a lot

Of new content but still this will always be the anchor show the anchor hour as far as I’m concerned and guys we got to do something now uh I’m GNA bring on Misha you’re gonna have to turn your camera on guys we forgot yesterday we had macro Monday but we got

To give money away right especially because now you’re all poor um I don’t know if I can afford to give you guys the $100 today but we’re gonna do it uh did you do your hair for the I did I mean a little bit Yeah man fixed it you

Know are those wine bottles in the boat did you drink did you drink all those wine bottles today uh I drank three of them in the last few days okay perfect well you know I guess if you uh sit in prison in Louisiana for long enough

You’re it’s Justified for you to have a couple extra drinks definitely yeah definitely all right so hey what was our what was our question today and guys so just so you remember we asked a question Mesa picks his favorite comment uh he picks his favorite comment

And then you email Mike at thewolf ofall streets. Misha is Mike Misha is Mike and uh then he he sends you money my money but uh he sends it to you he sends you my money they they like your hair I can see a lot of comments oh that hair the

Hair of Champions uh Jeff called you the Geico caveman did do you remember the Geico caveman do you remember that you weren’t you weren’t in America but there were these famous commercials where Geico had a caveman easy enough that a caveman can do it I think was the uh

Slogan you know to to get your your insurance okay so anyways what was our question do you want ask what what guys so the question is what was the most or is the most stupid thing you ever bought with crypto what’s the stupidest thing that you ever bought with crypto it

Doesn’t have to be true just make him laugh and we’re GNA give it a little more time for you guys to give an answer okay so you have to answer this question what’s the stupidest thing you ever bought with crypto we can expand that to what’s the stupidest thing you ever saw

Anyone buy with crypto that would work um I can sh what I was the stupidest thing I bought with yeah you while they’re doing this and you’re reading them why don’t you tell me what the stupidest thing you ever bought was it was my RV I bought a Toyota doin like

30y old Toyota Dolphin RV and actually it was the reason why I bought it because I asked the guy if he’s If he if he will accept the crypto and he said yes and I said like cool yeah and then we figured it out I bought it and uh

Since I was in prison and I had to sell it I sold it to the same guy for crypto and for Less no a little bit more but you a little bit more is that situation like can you share share that story publicly well by the way I’m

Looking at your answers Gary gendler’s used underwear as an inflatable dart board inflatable dart board that’s hilarious birthday present of as sectomy that’s that’s the best thing you could literally ever buy just gonna be honest Stadium oh that’s funny UHF uh Xbox subscription uh it’s not the stupidest

Thing I bought but the stupidest thing I did is trust Voyager with my money welcome to the club buddy uh I bought a condom full of Jim Kramer Seaman in hopes of becoming a trading genius how’d that work he’s actually been nailing this move guys marijuana that’s the best thing I mean that’s

Stupid I mean that’s stupid I mean it’s great uh a from Elizabeth waren honeymoon that’s a good one I’m gonna tell your wife you said that uh invested into my friend’s business and then she scammed me you should have never get given Caroline Ellison your money um PornHub also don’t blame you

That was that VG right uh what else do we got blocki yield yeah man bad diblin necklace for my mother-in-law that’s that’s nice good points uh hyperinflation are Mario’s Ed socks those yeah you should not buy those it’s not worth it uh SPF sample hair follicle

Some of you guys are just weird but I’m here for it um I’m gonna be honest man this one actually made me laugh out loud an inflatable dart board because you know if you throw darts at something inflated it’s G to it’s going to pop um okay let’s keep going I’m that one’s

Clos for me but hey we you know a night with a stripper don’t believe me on McLaren cap uh picture of a monkey that is crypto still uh what do you think man you seeing one that uh stands out so you’re gonna have to bring

It up I if they get buried uh this guy thinks he bought a for me and it’s Richard Hart um yeah yeah I don’t I I got nothing on that didn’t happen didn’t happen guys um new comments Doge oven mitt I bought that but not with crypto Beanie Babies what else we got

All right man we got we got to make a choice I Leave It To You Caroline SBF tape I like it um I think the first one you picked was actually pretty good vasectomy oh God good luck finding him yeah I I will need to scroll back a lot

But sectomy guy I’m scrolling back this is the problem if you got you got to you got to keep the names cute if you like one in the back guys you can tell we are uh oh here it is Charlie painter a vasectomy Charlie painter wins for getting a

Vasectomy uh the greatest gift of modern medical science uh Mike thewolf ofall streets. mikethe Wolf ofall streets. he will ask you to prove who you are so a bunch of you guys don’t start emailing and trying to I need to prove of bomy also you’ll need

Proof send the proof of your vesc to me and that you actually bought it with crypto and we’ll give you $100 congratulations guys it’s all we got for you today uh man this is fun this is worth the hundred bucks every single time we’ll be back what do we got

Tomorrow is mooch tomorrow yep Anthony scaramucci yeah tomorrow we got Anthony scaramucci guys and of course Texas West Capital Christopher inks will be joining to share some charts and trades and he’ll do it better than I probably did today I’m really really watching salana there man so no feels good feels good

Maybe it goes lower I don’t care anyways that’s all we got Misha great to have you here everybody else great to have you here David Young great to have you here he always offers such great insight and I always try to ask him questions that I know he’s going to be

Uncomfortable because he works at coinbase that he’s not going to answer but I want to see if we can just get that little bit of inside information out of him and he never cracks ever all right guys that’s all we got we will see you tomorrow guys bye did it twice look at That