Bitcoin Plunges 20%, Millions Of Ether Could Be Destroyed If This Happens | Friday Five

Etherum bug that can lead to mass desctruction of Ethtereum network, massive GBTC outflows, the collapse of Chinese stock market, spot ETH ETF delay and Binance and FTX updates. Friday

Five is THE show about the main news in crypto. Join me and Nathaniel Whittemore as we delve into the main topics that moved the markets.

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #FridayFive
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:15 Bitcoin ETF & GBTC
8:30 China: what’s going on?
12:50 Binance update
17:00 FTX: independent examiner
19:10 Ethereum ETF delay
22:00 Ethereum bug

The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.

Bitcoin has had a rough week down as much as 20% although it seems that we might possibly potentially maybe be so back baby and apparently millions of ethereum millions of ether at risk and could be destroyed and nobody is talking about it as always it is Friday 9:00 am

Eastern Standard Time and I’ve got nlw Nathaniel Whitmore here to do the Friday five reviewing the biggest stories of the week and what they mean for the Market you guys don’t want to miss it let’s Go what is up everybody I’m Scott melker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button yeah guys we start a little late sometimes on Fridays that’s just how we roll we like to build up the

Anticipation but are we so back baby is it time are we celebrating yet we never left we never left it was just we just needed something else to talk about for a minute that’s right but uh when you when in doubt there is something we can always talk about and Story number one

Uh on this Friday five of course is the uh Bitcoin spot ETFs right I’ve got this dashboard here from the tie showing the market cap I bit I shares Bitcoin trust that’s um obviously Black Rock over two billion now in market cap which I was surpris but more more interestingly I

Think gbtc down to 20.95% so the story obviously has been the outflows of gbtc that people are selling their gbtc and then grayscale has to send their Bitcoin directly to coinbase to dump on the market on everybody’s Heads This is not very dumping people seem to think this is

Just the mechanics of the ETF but Grace scales gbtc profit taking likely over easing Bitcoin selling pressure this is from jamy Diamond Z JP Morgan do you think that we might finally be done with uh this temporary selling pressure and pain that we’ve been seeing well it

Seems like so there are a couple acute sources of this right last week we talked about the the discounted nav trade and thaton one that’s what JP Morgan has been focused on right so people who came in just to sort of Arbitrage that uh that discount that was

There for a little while and now that trade is over right so they’re getting out JP Morgan I think estimated that was about $3 billion that’s the one that they’re sort of saying is is largely gone then we also learned this week or last week I can’t even remember I’ve

Lost track of time that FTX was one of the big sellers right they they had you know a huge grip of gbtc that they had just been waiting to to get rid of that that they now have that so that’s gone um and the the sort of uh the the there

Does seem to be some Slowdown in the speed at which these sort of outflows are happening um it’s interesting though Eric balunas who obviously everyone is you know paying attention to more than ever had previously you know a while ago estimated that that he thought that gbtc was going to lose about

25% and we’re somewhere between 15 and 20% now I think uh of what they’ve lost so there might still be a little bit to go but if that estimate is anywhere near correct we’re certainly sort of starting to get closer to that that ort of bottom

Part but you know listen it was always going this was always going to be a part of this process and uh and to some extent we just got to grip and bear it until it’s done yeah in my opinion this is sort of ripping the Band-Aid off fast

I actually love the way that it’s happening much better than this being a sustained thing where they go down to zero over a really long period of time we were literally watching 500 million to a billion dollars worth of bitcoin being sent directly from Grace scale to

Coinbase this is as trans arent of selling pressure as we’ve ever seen it’s not amorphus like United States government unloading Silk Road which we’re seeing potentially this week or the seven years of waiting for Mount Cox to finally dump on us right this is pretty clear and so yes we as it says

Here as Bitcoin ETF flows show negative trend for first time since launch but that’s the natural tendency obviously of the people who are willing to get in really fast at the beginning they’ve done so and the people who are willing to exit really fast have done so so I

Think over the next few weeks going to start to see this like return back to inflows James safer gave an update for day 10 of the Bitcoin ETF coin Tucky Derby volumes and flows are both slowing down a bit another slight negative day on flows total net flows standing at 744

Million ibit likely crosses two billion in assets today I believe that has technically happened I know Valkyrie made it over a 100 I mean take gbtc out of the equation and this is just an incredible success in my humble opinion absolutely and mean listen one of the

Things that we’ve sort of identified or one of the questions that we’ve had is how much the gptc selling is just rotating into other assets and it really does seem at least meaningfully disconnected you know certainly some part of that is people you know moving

Their gbtc into a a lower fee option but given that you know a billion or so was FTX and three billion or so might have been this sort of discount to nav trade that’s a huge grip of these sort of the the net inflows to the other ETFs that

Isn’t accounted for which means it’s other people now they could be existing Market participants increasing their stack uh and and in some ways you know one of the interesting debates has been how much you know is this sort of a failure from a normie perspective so Jim biano had an interesting tweet earlier

This week where he’s sort of warning it cautionary tale that you know when the spot ETFs launched it was 49,000 now we’re you know down down at 40,000 some number of retail investors got rugged and what will it take to get back and the comments were largely it just

Doesn’t seem like retail was paying attention at all right it’s just this didn’t seem to represent some big boom of new retail investors starting to come in and if that’s the case it really feels like even in spite of how exciting this was to all of us this wasn’t that

Sort of immediate catalytic event for a new set of buyers to come in which makes all of these movements sort of much less significant in terms of the overall impact to uh to sort of the the the broader growth dynamics of of sort of the Bitcoin

Holder base yeah I brought up the Tweet I’d had seen it earlier this week as well crypto is now at real risk of seeing its great hope to get serious trafi money fail what can save it take out 49k how long will it take what if

It’s a year or more I mean this is just hyperbolic I think a fundamental misunderstanding of what’s happening to your point I don’t think retail is even watching it all they don’t feel rug pulled they probably don’t even care the real story here is that the marketing is

About to kick in right we know that most raia platforms are not even offering this to their clients yet they’re just still doing due diligence they waited for the approvals to even start wasting their time and resources on this they weren’t going to spend their time in

Advance when we know that over 60% of them thought this wasn’t even going to get approved based on the bitwise survey but now now we have the bit wises and the black rocks of the world going out to educate these Ras from Eric balunis black rock is hosting an educational

Webinar Friday on getting B access through an ETF IIT this is where the education and the marketing starts I had hunter from bitwise on the day that the ETFs launched and he told me they had already had 20,000 calls with raas and institutions before the approval and that was just literally wetting their

Beak because they were about to you know 5 10 x that in the coming years to educate these people so I think any extreme take about this being a failure and people being rugged and trafi now to Believe in Us is just nonsense um let’s uh let’s go through the other stories

But then come back to I I want to end today on um on the way that I see the the sort of the shape of the next narrative taking form uh you know sort of been a persistent question of what the next narrative is um I don’t think

It’s ethereum but uh but let’s come back to that at the very end well all right now you’ve got me in suspense and so we didn’t talk about that in advance at all Story number two that was number one I think we’ve ETF ourselves today once

Again a little bit out of the crypto sphere but certainly going to matter China ways stock market rescue package backed by 278 billion China considers offshore money for stabilization fund sources some policy measur could come as soon as this week we’ve been long talking about the inevitable pivot in

The United States while China is pivoting and pivoting hard although my first reaction I’m not going to lie is why a billion and why why aren’t we talking about trillions right now billions are so are so meaningless at this point in the world aren’t they we had trillions in debt uh seemingly every

Couple months over here that’s largely been the reaction in China as well it’s it’s a really interesting place that the country finds themselves where they’ve spent the last couple years talking about needing to move away from those sort of big bombastic you know packages that were that were happening in the you

Know 2010s and you know there’s been a lot more rhetoric around uh the the importance of work and all you know all these sort of like things that uh you would hear from like the American right you know in terms of people’s motivation and things like that like China is

Clearly trying to psychologically transition its audience to stop thinking about the government bazooka however the issues just keep stacking up right last year the story was over and over and over again these giant real estate projects that were you know uh just sort of you know failing left and right and

You know potentially cratering the economy they’re doing all sorts of weird stuff I mean those have gone out of the news but they haven’t sort of stopped being an issue you have the weirdest promotions going on in China right now where people are offering gold bars for

Uh for for buying a house and all these sort of things but the stock market this week or you know in advance of of these moves hit its its lowest point in a in a very long time in fact India’s uh stock market it’s to Total market cap uh is

Now a bigger than the Hong Kong uh stock stock market for the first time ever which is a really significant sort of shift from a Global Perspective the question is can China sort of take half measures and get people back on board so far the reaction that almost everyone

Has had is the exact same one that you just had yeah I mean here you go China’s stocks lost decade means an uphill battle to regain trust effectively their index is down 177% since 2013 this kind of reminds me of that Lo the Lost decades in Japan and it seems that this

Is likely to accelerate with their population decline but things obviously not looking good in China but to your point point you know the first story was this is really stock market stimulus but there’s also likely other stimulus that’s going to be more targeted so I think like you said people don’t want to

See the uh multi-trillion dollar package anymore in any country they want to see small targeted amounts that probably add up to the same but make for a better media narrative yeah we’ll see I mean it’s you know to some extent the the point of those you know it’s it’s like

Power creep in a game or something like that where you keep going bigger and bigger and bigger and the Cy olical impact of 278 billion is nothing and really a lot of the job of these sort of stimulus packages is not about what those dollars do it’s about what it

Provokes other investors in aggregate to do and so you really are playing a a sort of a game of psychological chicken where it just has to get bigger and bigger and bigger and you start to try to go the other direction and you get the situation that they have in China

Where you know they’re they’re basically just pouring 278 billion Into the Fire because it’s not doing anything yeah and for anybody who’s on Team America F yeah us extends lead over China and race for world’s biggest economy us gross domestic product Row 6.3% in nominal terms that is unadjusted

For inflation the cheating numbers last year outpacing China’s 4.6% gain so anyone who’s been extremely concerned with China and their growing influence on the world and their massive economy it seems like they may be on the way down and our economy is still somehow humming along strum is whole different conversation to have

About how quickly AI has become a massive geopolitical player but we’ll save that for another time all right I’m I’m earmarking that one for next week except for I think there was something we earmarked last week for this week and forgot to talk about already so I you

Know I’m start to have to actually start looking back number three speaking of China and a non-chinese Chinese company binance SEC finds more favorable judge in DC as binance tries to dismiss lawsuit now just over a week ago we saw the SEC in coinbase go to court and

Every crypto lawyer in the world went to attend and have a little broown and watch and they enjoyed how the judge dunked all over the SEC this trial or I shouldn’t say this trial this hearing went off without anyone paying any attention why was the

SEC and coinbase such a big deal and now we have sec and binance and it seems like really nobody’s talking about it at all well there there’s a couple reasons one is I do think that at the end of this cycle in the beginning of the next cycle coinbase’s importance as one of

The Rock Solid institutions at the center of this industry particularly the Western uh crypto industry has been reified in a massive way right when you had FTX go down and binance go partially down and just all of these sort of Exchange failures all of a sudden coinbase you know it’s always been a

Significant player but it looks much better it feels its Destiny feels more tied to the sort of Destiny of of this uh in the United States second it’s a us-based company and to some extent all of these things are being seen as proxies for US policy right and so

There’s naturally sort of more attention being paid to this us company that’s listed on us domestic markets etc etc etc uh I think a third piece though is that coinbase’s cases hell of a lot better than binance’s case and part of the reason you know that this judge

Seemed so much less favorable is that you have BNB at the center of this right and binance can talk about all these other things all at once but at the end of the day there is this very core thing which is BNB feeling very clearly like a

Security to the judge and that being sort of an inescapable uh part of this I think that the the healthiest reason though that we were paying less attention is that binance is still an incredibly important Institution structurally for millions of people around the world to access crypto

Markets it is no longer a significant institution from an influential perspective it’s just gone and that that went away with CZ retiring I think and we’re going to see that influence that relevance diminish more and more and more and and I almost don’t think it matters whatever punishment he ends up

You know whatever sentence he ends up getting him being removed as the as the leader of that company just bance no longer factors as a as a meaningful uh leader of the of the industry from a from a sort of um uh a perception standpoint even if it continues to have

Big market share that’s that’s my sense and I think this sort of you know put a fine point on that yeah actually really interesting point I never considered the very basic level that bance has a token and coinbase doesn’t yep right that that is a huge differentiation that wasn’t

Really even on my radar until you just said it also I think that the fact that the SEC charged binance in the first place so many months ago already marginalized binance and made them less relevant as you sort of said even in advance of CZ retiring and that retiring

And then of course we have the fact that the doj has already sort of handicapped Finance right once the doj comes in nobody really cares about the SEC civil complaint anymore at this point I think we’re literally watching both of these cases just to find out what is and is

Not a security yep 100% 100% And I think you know here’s the other thing I think that preferentially most of the crypto legal Corp really hopes that coinbase gets decided before binance so it can move to the Supreme Court potentially before binance because binance is a bad

Case for us and coinbase is a good case for us it’s pretty much as simple as that yeah I think it is if anyone’s looking for a really good summary metal law man James Murphy who’s often on the show did two tweets tweet here you can

Go back and find these but uh he basically summarized this didn’t seem like anything anything hugely groundbreaking like the coinbase case and I think that’s probably why it sort of got lost in the in The Ether along these same vein this isn’t a new story but FTX must appoint Watchdog

To probe reasons for its collapse judge says I just find this story amazing because uh the guys who took over obviously have said we got this we’re not involved with FTX trust me bro right and the judge is saying no we actually want to see what happen yeah I

Mean listen this is what this is a a dumb story really because uh I think that the broad perception was that even if it is redundant and even if it does end up costing some additional amount of the um the sort of you know the the debtor or the the creditor’s estate that

The world needs to know all of the details and the fact fact that Sullivan and Cromwell like look I don’t think you have to conspiratorially think that Sullivan and Cromwell was up doing things with Sam I don’t think that they were I think that just the the the the

Reality is that from a a a prudence and a and a sort of reasonable standpoint with the stakes this High unfortunately part of the tax to be paid for those creditors is that independent examiner even if it takes you know $50 million or whatever right so I I think that people

Basically think that this should have happened right away uh and John J R should have dealt with the fact that it’s going to be duplicative and annoying to him but listen John J Ray gets to be uh sort of you know advocating for where he is advocating

For but there needs to be someone who’s advocating for the broader public interest and that’s what an independent examiner does yeah I don’t think there’s anything nefarious here I just think that there’s no reason for the bankruptcy estate to dig as deep as there is reason for the government to

Dig right to get answers it’s just not that’s not their mandate not what they’re going to do now we do have to talk about our favorite security non-security ethereum we could have put this one at the top spot ether ETF applications delion decisions delayed by SEC we chose to keep the Bitcoin spot

ETF SE ETF separate Grays scale and black rock are among the companies trying to bring spot ether ETFs to the market they were both delayed this is just the uh Bitcoin spot ETF Playbook right there’s nobody on the planet who expects the SEC to jump ahead of this

Decision until the last possible second then we’ll yeah I I mean I think that the the the every what everyone’s waiting for is May when there’s an actual final deadline for the van application which is the first final deadline to come up and the question

Is I think that the or the sentiment is how could the SEC possibly deny this when they’ve approved a future CTF and the whole decision in the grayscale case was about it being arbitrary and capricious that you could approve a future ETF and not a spot ETF right you

Still have Bloomberg handicapping it at like 70% for May which feels intuitively higher than the signals the SEC is sending we’re not seeing any of the engagement with issuers like we saw starting in last October with the Bitcoin ETF issuers gendler continues to use his madeup word of cabined to talk

About how his strategy was cabined to to to bitcoin I don’t think that they’re going to approve in May and the question then becomes are they just okay with another court case because they just want to drag it out do they think that they can sort of make the the argument

That ethereum is sufficiently different uh you know to to bitcoin that it you know there there’s more space but it it’s it’s it’s a weird one to me it’s weird because nothing about the sec’s posture right now indicates that they are even considering this with any meaningful sort of in you know intensity

But it’s very hard to see how they don’t just see a wave of lawsuits the the day after a denial you know yeah it’s sad that we can say there’s no indication from the SEC because that really means there’s no indication from Gary gendler because of the way that the SEC is structured

Because of course this week we did have Hester Pur saying that the SEC will apply precedent when making decision on spot e E3 ETFs she effectively said we won’t wait for a court case right but she’s not in power yeah right so we we we we’ve seen this language from her and

Yet data for everything crypto related for seemingly years now and that doesn’t change the way the SEC operates so I think you’re actually correct it is just important to note that we do have friends at the SEC who understand this and would in theory if they had the

Power push this for an earlier approval you know one of the things that’s interesting I think in our our sort of dream speculation about the future of the SEC I don’t think that um Hester P’s behavior and position and and you know sort of stance on all these issues has

Been lost on traditional Market investors who are also frustrated with the way that the SEC has behaved in the context of traditional markets where they’ve chosen to focus what they’ve chosen to go after um you know she she looks very Vindicated let’s put it that

Way and I think that that’s a a net good thing for markets not just for crypto I heard her name a lot this week from unexpected sources for sure which was nice to see so finally the end to to wrap this up the end of the ethereum

Story is a humongous story that is seemingly being Untold until we said hey what five stories should we discuss this week I hadn’t even heard about this and this article I think is from Monday that’s how off the radar it was for me but bug that took down 8% of ethereum’s

Validators Sparks worries about even bigger outage you’ve got uh some pretty incredible Twitter threads about it and even coinbase confronting client diversity risk following the nether mind but dude I am a boomer I have no idea what’s happening here I read it twice little bit over my head I conceptually

Understand what is going on here look the the the the part that’s understandable for anyone without getting into sort of like the the super deep mechanics of how the ethereum network works is that decentralized networks one of their risks is centralized infrastructure choices that happen over time because the market

Chooses a best option gu is the chosen Market validator it has a huge huge portion of the ethereum market it’s used by the big custodians the staking partners and it creates de facto concentration and centralization out of something that’s good like it’s a better product or people have determined it to

Be a better product and so they use it but the problem is it creates less redundancy in the system and so the problem or what we’ve seen is that the sort of smaller minority validators have suffered some of these bugs and these issues and it hasn’t been an issue for

The ethereum network because they represent such a small portion of validators you know that doesn’t slow you know doesn’t stop the network from confirming blocks if that were to happen with the sort of majority validator and gu it would be hugely there would be huge potential issues so the way that

The sort of the positive spin from folks who are concerned about client diversity and issues like that in ethereum is that these situations create a uh they’re a test run they they are warning shot to help people try to think differently about uh things like client diversity

Which would stay at the bottom of the to-do list forever until something like this bumps it up and I think that you can see that in you know the response of uh coinbase as as a particular you know it’s clearly that this is not they’re not like shocked that this is an issue

It’s now potentially has uh a sort of a context and a reason to become a bigger issue that they actually try to figure out and solve even though it’s going to involve time cost resources in the short term but this is a there is always the Achilles heel of these decentralized

Networks when they get to scale is um you know sort of accidental pieces of of centralized infrastructure around them and that’s what that’s what we saw with this yeah they say here when a minority client fails the penalty is losing eth at the same rate as you gained it but if

G fails because it instantly stops the chain from finalizing the penalty is much harsher so as you explain this and as I’ve dug into it myself this seems like one of those things where we had a exceptionally manageable incident that was of a shot across the bow for what

Could possibly happen and now we’re likely going to get a solution for it well in advance of it becoming a problem now that it’s on everyone’s radar maybe that’s my uh glass half full optimistic view but it sounds like hopefully this happened in the right way that it gave a

Warning and it will be dealt with that’s the hope I mean listen the ethereum network is full of people who are serious about these issues and you know gu didn’t become dominant in this in this way because of some uh you know Joe Luben conspiracy and everyone deciding

To do it it came it became dominant because people voluntarily independently chose a thing that they think is best it’s just there’s a different set of dynamics that play in crypto markets in the sort of markets that surround decentralized networks that that constantly needs to be addressed for

Even if it’s sort of Market inefficient in the way that we normally think about it so you know I I I think that there’s a things like this this is a that which does not kill us could make us stronger type of moment if people kind of use it

For for what it could what what it could represent for them how much of this just curious uh as a result obviously of the move from proof of work to proof of stake is this one of those things where you wouldn’t have had any sort of issue

Without the merge I mean obviously this is unique to proof of stake but is this going to give the uh I guess the proof proof of uh the POS truther more ammo or is that just a dead battle no no I mean it is for sure but it’s almost uh it’s

Sort of like there is an a priority understanding that staking creat creates a new set of infrastructure that could end up centralized and this is that playing out I mean the we’re talking about the validators but the the sort of the actual um you know stakers like Lio

You know is is and the concentration there is another source of sort of you know independent centralization that can come in it decisions come with consequences and you know having to deal with the new consequences of those decisions doesn’t mean the decisions were wrong you just have to deal with

The new consequences of those decisions and that’s sort of the the place that I think ethereum finds itself after the transition to POS yeah and I think we’re being intellectually honest we have similar debates with proof of work mining pools and other sort of de facto forms of centralization with that

Decentralized Network sure it’s also listen it’s a it’s a totally reasonable argument for the the P people to say the reason that we find P Superior is that it it doesn’t have this set of risks in the same way and sure we do have our centralization infrastructure risks but

They’re very different and they’re ones that we can handle right that’s a that is a great argument for why you would like proof of work versus proof of stake versus for example I hate ethereum and vitalic sucks you know which is sort of what what these conversations integrate

To so you know listen if if everyone is having conversations about proof of work versus proof of stake because of the concentration risk of validators we’d be in a much better place than I think uh our our general discourse is totally agree still when you see a headline that

Says you know 8% down Millions at risk why why wasn’t I thinking about this all week definitely scary all right guys that’s the Friday 5 that’s everything that we’ve got for you today of course you can listen to this on the breakdown this weekend uh and all of his other

Shows nlw on his channels check those out and we will be back next Friday with the uh next Friday five man thank you this was uh great we cooked through it hopefully next week uh be net inflows that we’re talking about will be out of the conversation or maybe we won’t talk

About the ETF at all could happen good luck with that but great to see you guys talk soon couldn’t happen couldn’t happen all right guys thank you see you next week bye let’s Go