Bitcoin Has Never Done This Before

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Hello and welcome back to my 10 favorite people I hope you’re doing well what a strong weekly candle for Bitcoin and it’s really no surprise if we look at the ETF data for Friday Thursday was already impressive at over 400 million in net inflows and only 100 million

Leaving grayscale but somehow Friday was even better at over 540 million in net inflows and only 50 million leaving grayscale and of course what happens when you combine strong ETF inflow data and a very strong weekly close for the S&P 500 giving Bitcoin a nice risk on

Backdrop you end up with a very strong weekly candle for Bitcoin and if this candle were to close anything like this in 5 hours from now when it closes it becomes incredibly likely at the very least that we see at least one week of continuation next week and that will be

The moment of truth to decide if we can hold this breakout going into the having or if it ends up being a false breakout and we fall back below 49,000 which of course is exactly what we saw for the Futures ETF launch and now of course I’m

Not saying things have to play out the exact same way and I’m definitely not saying we’re going to have a 50% sell-off but the price action between these two launches are incredibly similar not only did both see a nice consolidation before the breakout going into the actual launch which of course

Was very similar to what we saw for the Futures ETF quick consolidation breakout going into launch and then everybody front ran it so we saw a brief sell the news event which came down and perfectly retested the breakout and what do you know if you look at the spot ETF sell

The news event came down and perfectly retested that breakout level the Futures ETF then went up to put in a new high and of course sentiment got euphoric and everybody started talking about a 100,000 per Bitcoin and then once all the shorts got squeezed and all the

Longs started foming in on the Breakout we saw a break back below and then put in a low below the previous swing low that we had earlier in the price action and of course there’s no guarantee this is going to play out the exact same way but sentiment has followed a similar

Cycle everybody was Mega bullish at the launch then everybody was incredibly scared at the lows expecting us to go a lot lower thanks to grayscale and of course all it took was three green candles and all of a sudden everybody is bullish again and best believe if we see

A break out above 49,000 a lot of fomo and Euphoria will re-enter the market and that doesn’t mean we can’t continue higher I’ll just be paying very close attention to whether Bitcoin can maintain that breakout or if it ends up being a false breakout and of course a

Lot of that is going to rely very heavily on the ETF inflow data we see next week because we have seen a lot of variants in the ETF data the inflows started out very strong they then slowed down quite a bit as grayscale sped up they then sped up again as grayscale

Slowed down they got very low in the first week of February and just because they’ve sped up again recently doesn’t mean we can start projecting the rest of 2024 like I see a lot of influencers doing saying things like if we continue to see $500 million of daily inflows

It’s going to be 50 billion by the end of 2024 that’s a very dangerous way of thinking because we could just see the inflows slow down once again so the week ahead should definitely be exciting especially if we see Bitcoin get above 49,000 of course something else that

Could ruin things for Bitcoin in the short term is we’ve seen the S&P 500 go up in 14 of the last 15 weeks and we’ve discussed many times that seasonality wise late February and March are the worst months for the S&P 500 in election years alongside September and October

And if we do see the S&P 500 finally have its overdue do correction SL consolidation that could also coincide nicely with a pullback for Bitcoin especially because we know they’re incredibly correlated and I don’t see Bitcoin rallying to new all-time highs while the S&P 500 puts in a correction

Now that it’s overdue for one and it aligns nicely with election year seasonality and of course no matter what ends up happening my plan remains unchanged I’m still 50% cash and that might seem crazy to a lot of you but I promise it’s for very good reason if

This does end up being a false breakout and Bitcoin gets back below $49,000 I’m going to be very happy I have this cash allocation because it’s likely I’ll be able to accumulate at lower prices however if this time does end up being different which I think is unlikely but it’s always a possibility

And Bitcoin breaks out and maintains that breaks that breakout and continues into the having I’m then going to be very very happy I have that cash because it means that it’s time for me to go risk on and start buying some altcoins because normally once Bitcoin breaks above its 618 Fibonacci retracement it’s

A pretty quick move to previous all-time highs and that’s when altcoins really start to go crazy which is why I’ll be happy I have this cash position ready to take advantage of those new altcoin opportunities if this time really is different and what I mean when I say if

This time is different is because Bitcoin has never closed above its 618 Fibonacci retracement before the having however when it does close above the 618 Fibonacci retracement it ends up going to new all-time highs in 2 to 3 months and we’ve seen that in every single

Cycle we saw it in 2012 we saw it in 2016 we of course saw it in 2020 once Bitcoin closes above the 618 Fibonacci retracement on the monthly chart it’s a quick move to all-time high and of course this hasn’t happened yet but it’s still a scenario I’m prepared for and of

Course the 618 Fibonacci retracement is that 48,500 level show me a couple of weekly closes above that level or even better show me a monthly close above that level and I’ll be targeting new all-time highs and of course I’ll be preparing my altcoin portfolio because when Bitcoin

Puts in a new all-time high that’s when altcoins really take off and you can see it very clearly on this chart here this is Bitcoin in Orange and total 3 in blue total 3 is of course the crypto market cap minus Bitcoin and ethereum and notice how Bitcoin broke its all-time

High on December of 2020 just 3 to four months later the altcoin market took off and broke its all-time high very quickly and of course put in way more gains than Bitcoin did and the reason why my risk on portfolio is majority altcoins is because I don’t think think there’s a

Lot of benefit buying Bitcoin above 50,000 and of course I’m not talking to those of you that are going to dollar cost average forever and you’re holding Bitcoin so it can go to a million dollars in 10 years that’s a very different strategy I mean from a cycle swing trade perspective I’m not

Interested buying Bitcoin at these prices or in the 50,000 plus range because to double my money it needs to go above 100,000 and that’s why I’m much happier buying altcoins because a Bitcoin breakout confirms a risk on environment and there’s way more upside potential in altcoins which is why I

Have this cash ready to deploy for the risk-on portfolio if this time is different and Bitcoin sees that breakout and speaking of some altcoins I still think ethereum’s chart looks very good we had that false breakout above 2400 closed back below it things looked very terrible and of course ethereum is

Always good at looking incredibly terrible on the chart before it ends up doing a 180 and breaking out to the upside again and now that we’re above 2400 especially if the weekly close closes above 2400 things could look good for ethereum in the short term and you

Guys know I’m super bullish going into the spot ETF whether it gets approved or not I think speculation on it will lead ethereum higher as for salana a little bit harder to gauge you could say this is like one gigant antic cup and handle and this was just reaccumulation before

A squeeze higher but with such a quick consolidation after such a strong move there’s still a high likelihood in my opinion that salana ends up putting in a lower high and comes down to consolidate lower and of course so much of what salana does and what ethereum does is

Going to depend greatly on whether Bitcoin ends up having a true breakout here or if it ends up being a false breakout like what we saw in 2021 and of course so much of that is going to depend on the S&P 500 and on ETF inflows

Next week which is why I think next week should be incredibly entertaining and of course we’re going to keep an eye on rate cut expectations they’re still getting pushed back to May for now so maybe the economy can hold on and risk assets can party for a little bit longer

Of course my general macro strategy is to dollar cost average in 2024 at good prices I don’t know if it’s going to be altcoin or my core Holdings yet of course as I explained it depends on what Bitcoin does but I will start to become

A lot more cautious as we get closer to rate Cuts because we do know the FED only Cuts rates once something bad happens in the economy and that should be bad for risk assets and that’s what we saw for Bitcoin in the previous cycle and that’s why my general plan for 2024

Is accumulation at good prices and I think the real party will happen in 2025 once we see a lot of these rate Cuts actually come in and we see money printing come back and stimulus start to re-enter the economy and that’s why this is my general strategy but anyway it

Should be an exciting week let me know what you expect will Bitcoin actually hold this breakout and continue higher going into the having which of course means this time is in fact different or will it end up being a fake out and all the fomo buyers get punished just like

They were in 2021 because this time is in fact not different and Bitcoin will not get a close above the 618 before the having and this is going to be like previous cycles and we instead enter a reaccumulation phase and of course some of that is going to depend on ETF

Inflows and on the S&P 500 but I’m curious to see what you guys think in terms of what’s more likely for Bitcoin because I think both are incredibly likely to happen but I think the false breakout is still more likely in my opinion even though this chart looks

Incredibly solid as of right now and we’re going to have to see tomorrow’s candle to conclude what’s more likely to happen but anyway thank you so much for the support on the recent videos thank you so much for watching and I’ll talk to you soon