Are We Heading For A Financial Crisis & Crypto Bull Market?! Top 6 Metrics To Identify A Recession

Are we heading for an economic crash and recession?
At the same time as a cryptocurrency bull market?

Are we heading for a financial crisis, higher inflation and more economic pain?
Or a soft landing followed by better economic growth and cheaper borrowing through lower interest rates?
And what are some of the metrics and that you can look at to indicate this?
Which countries are already in a recession?

What is the impact on the cryptocurrency market, price, market cap etc.?
How have Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) performed against this TradFi backdrop?
How does the crypto market link with wider traditional finance and economies? And when, generally speaking, does crypto thrive?

That’s what I cover in this video.

Watch my previous videos here on:

When we might see a 100k Bitcoin & new crypto all-time highs:

How long would it take to earn 1 million, 1 billion or even 1 trillion?

It has never been more important to educate yourself financially.

Contact me here if you are interested in working with me:
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Chapters:
0:00 – Intro
1:01 – Countries in recession
1:50 – 6) U.S. Debt
2:23 – 5) Debt as a percentage of U.S. GDP
3:09 – 4) Interest Payments
3:32 – 3) Yield Curve
4:53 – 2) Interest Rates
5:52 – 1) Unemployment Rate
6:52 – What does this mean for crypto investors?

Disclaimer:
The information contained in this video is for informational purposes only. Nothing shall be construed as financial advice. The content is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.

#financialeducation
#recession
#crypto
#bullmarket

Are we heading for an economic crisis higher inflation and more economic pain or a soft Landing followed by better economic growth and cheaper borrowing through lower interest rates and what are some of the metrics that you can look at to indicate this because my last video looked at the historic price of

Bitcoin uh the 2024 Bitcoin Haring bare markets and all-time highs to see when we might see the next all-time high in crypto which you can find a link to here and in the description so another question is how does the cryptocurrency market link with wider traditional finance and economies and when generally speaking

Does crypto Thrive that’s what we’ll look at in this video so please do like the video and subscribe to the channel so I can continue to offer more content for you in future and let’s jump straight in Japan and the UK have already been in recessions with more news coming out in

February 2024 about countries that are struggling to grow their economies including Finland as you can see here which is also just announced it’s also in a recession as well as Ireland that fell into a technical recession in the final quarter of 2023 and Germany is struggling also so there are some large

Countries here that are finding it difficult to grow their economies and we’re also aware of the conflicts that are taking place in the world today the disruption to supply chains political instability and the fact that more than 4 billion people are eligible to vote in more than 50 countries around the world

In 2024 alone but what is happening with the world’s largest economy in the United States let’s take a look at six of the metrics that can indic indate the health of its economy and firstly as I’m sure you’re aware US debt is at all-time Highs at well over $33 trillion and I

Actually did a video on just how big a trillion actually is when you compare it with a million or a billion which is pretty eye openening and you can find a link to that here and in the description and secondly this total debt as a percentage of the US GDP or gross

Domestic product currently stands at over 120% which basically means that it’s borrowing more than it’s making bringing in or indeed growing which is obviously worrying and if you look back you can see that debt grew throughout the 1980s as a percentage of its GDP being at

About 30% in 1980 and doubling to over 60% by 1991 and then you can see the large Spike during the 2008 financial crisis where where it had only increased from about 60% in 1991 to 63 or 64% at the beginning of 2008 and the interest payments that are due by the US

Government on that debt we’ve just looked at have now surpassed $1 trillion which is a huge amount with a lot of people basically saying that you can’t service this level of debt so they just kick the can further down the road by monetizing it and issuing more debt that

We’ve already seen let’s now look at the 10-year versus 2-year treasuries and the yield curve and to put this graph into simple terms you can see that when the line goes below zero it has always preceded or come before a financial crisis which are the vertical gray lines

Here and you can see just how far below zero we’ve gone this time so this would normally indicate that a recession and financial crisis would follow at some point in the future but what this graph actually represents when it goes below zero is that interest rates for

Borrowing over a shorter time frame 2 years in this case is higher than borrowing over the long term and it’s 10 years in this case and this doesn’t really make sense because normally if I lent you $1,000 or pound or whatever for one month the interest will be one price

But if I lend you that same amount for 10 years it will usually be higher because you’re not paying it back for longer so why does this even happen it’s because whoever’s borrowing from you is desperate for the money and will pay more to receive it in a shorter amount

Of time and this is called the inversion of the yield curve and treasury bills have different maturities so you can actually compare different lengths of time to the graph here so 10year versus 3 Monon treasury maturities for example let’s now look at interest rates because we’re all aware of how these have

Increased which have in turn increased the cost of borrowing and the question here is what has always happened historically when the Federal Reserve then lowers interest rates well as you can see here A recession follows and you can see here the lowering of interest rates well before the crisis or the gray

Column in 1990 then again before 2001 again before 2008 and even before the pandemic back in 20 so what will happen when central banks reverse course and start to lower interest rates well history would indicate that a financial crisis would then ensue this then leads to more money Printing and debt which

Starts essentially the cycle again and further devalues the currencies we have today whether that’s the dollar the pound the Euro Etc and finally let’s look at the unemployment rate because unemployment doesn’t normally precede a crisis is unlike most other metrics the unemployment rate normally coincides

With the crisis often as we can see it’s right at the beginning of a crisis and then it keeps increasing even after the financial crisis has ended that is because employment and unemployment takes time to action and they’re often reactive measures based on the state of that particular business or the economy

And as you can see from the graph when you have a very low unemployment rate you are normally in for or you’re in a crisis or a session which seems quite strange so to summarize I think it’s fair to say that the six metrics we’ve seen here aren’t terribly conducive to a

Healthy economy if you’re interested in this and you’d like to see more metrics that can measure the health of an economy just let me know in the comments below and I’ll do another video on different metrics and what does this all mean for crypto investors well cryptocurrencies are assets so when

Quant itive easing takes place and the central banks like the Federal Reserve print more money then the price of crypto will increase and inversely when interest rates increase this increases the cost of borrowing with the aim essentially of removing liquidity from the financial system and reducing inflation so this will normally decrease

The price and the market cap of cryptocurrencies but it’s not all doom and gloom and there’s certainly still hope and opportunity because we’ve had alltime highs on the S&P 500 in January and then February of 2024 the price of Bitcoin has increased pretty much since the lows of around

$116,000 back in November 2022 surpassing $52,000 in February 2024 and eth hit $3,000 for the first time since 2022 in 22 months so things can’t be all that bad and this is why in my opinion you should try to take the emotion out of investing zoom out and invest for a

Longer time frame educate yourself and make decisions based on evidence and logic rather than on things like hype fomo or even fud so that ends this video on how to identify the health of an economy but as always I’d love to know what you think in the comments below and

If you’re interested in more of a tailored approach to your general crypto education and you think you’d benefit from having someone look over your shoulder and guide you on your journey I do offer onetoone coaching to those who have the desire and the means to educate themselves further and there are links

In the description where you can message me and book in a free video call to see if we’d be a good fit and if you found this content interesting please do like the video and subscribe to the channel as it really does help and have a great day