Tesla’s Perfect Storm

Tesla’s Perfect Storm

well perfect storm is brewing ahead of
and no doubt in the aftermath of Tesla’s
q1 earnings results and I continue to
pray to the Flying Spaghetti Monster for
juicy and prolonged discount as I’m
still buying with every spare scent and
future Steven a decade plus from now is
no doubt going to look back to present
and or past Steven and say thanks
brother you did me a solid so before we
get to the earnings and jump in the gun
a little bit with some of the questions
that investors W answered I’ll do my
best to answer them before Tesla does I
saw this and have some thoughts but
optimism around FSD and musks belief
that this new approach could bring about
robot taxes is clouding the future of
Tesla’s $25,000 car project people with
knowledge of Tesla’s plans disputed the
notion that the program has been
cancelled altogether and remember musk
himself also disputed this fake news all
along the company has been pursuing a
lowcost vehicle architecture that will
underpin several different types of
models one of which would have no
steering wheel or pedals no
Sherlock as I’ve said as many others
have said Tesla’s Next Generation
vehicle platform they modular
manufacturing system ain’t just going to
be for one vehicle obviously their
dedicated robotaxi will be built on this
platform and obviously there will be
other variations as well likely a
compact SUV likely a compact sedan
possibly more I’ve said this many times
in the past there’s likely to be a
handful of variations on this platform
the point here is to produce a vehicle
that the masses can afford in every
major category but here’s where things
get interesting well these people
confirm the robo taxi is being
prioritized which by the way folks uh uh
hello just think about this for a moment
I don’t want to be too obnoxious but
let’s use our brains for a moment here
if Tesla the company is known to
currently be
prioritizing their Robo taxi and this is
all happening on the back of the huge
rewrite FSD V2 in the future iterations
no more heuristics train purely on N
video and we’re seeing its capabilities
and seeing that they’ve matched and in
many cases exceeded the past build
without any of the rigid rules and
explicit instru about what this is if
this is all happening it is an extremely
strong signal that Tesla themselves
believe that they are finally on the
cusp of soling autonomy which unlocks a
decad trillion dollar opportunity I
cannot stress this point enough if Tesla
wasn’t confident they wouldn’t be
prioritizing their robot taxi vehicle
platform would they one described the
Next Generation vehicle project as an
effort to ring cost reductions out of
components and production methods then
apply those Innovations to cheaper
iterations of the model Y and the model
3 three the company’s two most popular
EVS teams are placing particular
emphasis on bringing these cost savings
to bear with the model y the bestselling
vehicle in the world last year and
spoiler alert likely this year and next
year as well now some people seem a
little bit surprised at this rumor not
sure why let think about this if Tesla’s
developed a new modular manufacturing
system to massively Drive costs out of
producing vehicles at scale why in the
would they not Implement those cost
savings into existing products if those
existing products are at sufficient
volume for the cost savings to be
implemented for a net gain in other
words you’re probably not going to see a
modul of manufacturing system for the
SRX because they’re piss poor in terms
of their volumes it’s not worth it’s not
worth the investment but if the model
wise already doing a million plus units
per year it’s probably at 1.25 plus now
of course they’re going to implement the
stuff that they’ve developed in terms of
a module manufacturing system over time
but spoiler alert that’s likely to occur
after they’ve begun producing vehicles
on the next gen platform around that
$25,000 PR point so in today’s episode
of obvious things are obvious yes there
is an nextg vehicle platform it will
feature a dedicated robot taxi and some
other variations of vehicles as well and
Tesla will implement the stuff that
they’ve learned on that platform in
particular on the model Y which is at
sufficient scale for it to make sense
for Tesla to invest an enormous amount
up front to ultimately Drive the cost to
produce model y down much further it is
worth plugging my valuation model once
again I currently have an estimate for
the long-term base price and the average
price of tesa’s model 3 and Y plus the
nextg vehicle and the Cyber truck and
everything actually different variations
in the base case the bull case the bare
case and so on but you will discover if
you look at this valuation model it’s at
the bottom of each scenario under the
long-term assumptions under all the
numbers that the base price I have for
model 3 and model Y is substantially
below the current entry level price for
these vehicles now why would that be I
have assumed that t will in fact
continue to drive cost out of these
vehicles as well so yes this is all
going to happen it is just a matter of
time you think the average selling price
on a Mot Y is going to be $445,000 in
2033 please save whatever you’re smoking
I would like some and now the most
popular investor questions on say which
will be answered in order by Tesla all
question dodged in order by Tesla not
sure how many they’ll address probably
at least the top five if not maybe seven
or more but let’s run through these and
I’ll try to guess what Tesla is going to
say the most popular question what is
the status of the 4680 what is the
current output pretty clear at this
point Tesla is no longer sell
constrained at least not for their
vehicles so 4680 does not appear to be a
limiting factor here I think the best
we’re going to hear about the current
output is a snapshot of recent output
somewhere over a short period of time
and a reference to the increase in
output over time the truth be told I
don’t really think this is a
particularly valuable answer for us
investors to know what is the current
status of Optimus are they currently
performing any Factory tasks when do you
expect to start mass production now this
is a great question we have seen demos
of Optimus but we don’t really know are
these robots actually performing any
tasks in factories yet are they still
being trained we do not know where this
is at so more insights equals better
here that said I don’t know if Tesla’s
going to want to Spill the Beans too
much given the fact that they’re very
likely to have an AI Day this year and
show a massive update there as for when
tesar expects to start mass production I
have my own thoughts on this check out
the link in the pin comment to join
patreon at the best level and above and
have a look at my valuation model you
will see my estimates but in either case
I don’t think it’s that far away maybe a
couple of years at most one of the key
reasons here is that Tesla’s been able
to transplant the brain of their
vehicles so to speak into Optimus so
they got a huge Head Start and another
important factor Tesla will be their own
first customer even if the initial
builds of Optimus are almost useless but
not quite once they’re no longer a net
Dragon productivity they can contribute
in some way the only real cost is energy
which is going to be almost nothing so
the bar for what’s acceptable in terms
of performance is quite low furthermore
unlike Vehicles which are multi ,000
death machines on Wheels potentially if
something goes wrong these things way
less than most of your girlfriends do if
they up they might make a bit of a
mess be annoying but it’s extremely
unlikely they’re going to cause
fatalities serious injuries or permanent
disabilities this means Tesla can take a
much more aggressive approach they don’t
need to be so cautious because the
stakes are nowhere near as high as they
are with autonomous vehicles and the
beauty of Tesla being their own first
customer is once they’ve got Optimus
being able to meaningfully contribute
labor in a factory setting first an
automotive Factory suddenly every other
company on the planet that has a factory
that produces things that are corable to
what Tesa is doing is already going to
be an eligible customer shout out to the
UAW its Psychopathic leader sha Fain
extremely corrupt big guy also known as
Joe Biden and the deeply ill-informed
UAW members who were extremely
supportive of making unreasonable
demands in terms of their total
compensation of their employers because
these dmfs are going to end out out of
jobs very fast when companies
like Ford General Motors BW Toyota you
name it doesn’t matter who and I’m not
just referring to UAW members but
everyone now universally in the
automotive industry there are going to
be huge huge disruptions and mass
layoffs of humans being replaced by
humanoid robots first in factory
settings as soon as Tesla’s Optimus
spots are providing useful labor in
their own factories providing a positive
return on investment they potentially
have many hundreds of thousands actually
Millions of Optimus bot sales that will
begin flowing through not all at once
but bro money talks in business if an
Optimus bot rather than being
compensated to the tune of six figures a
year can be purchased but well under
that amount and the software call it a $
few hundred a month doesn’t really
matter what the price is it’s recurring
Revenue huge profits for Tesla but from
the business’s point of view he’s
actually purchasing the Optimus spot
when these things more than pay for
themselves over a reasonable period of
time demand for these is going to be
close to infinite labor cost account for
a significant portion of the total cost
of producing vehicles and that’s not
where this is going to end T will
continue to increasingly add
capabilities for Optimus spots over time
and you guys may have seen a
demonstration where an Optimus was being
remotely controlled by Tesla operator
folding laundry even if the AI is not
there yet in terms of capabilities just
imagine this hypothetically imagine
you’re a busy professional a couple you
got children you’re under a lot of time
pressure you spend too much time doing
housework cleaning cooking folding
laundry Etc just to imagine this imagine
you buy a Tesla Optimus spot and then
have a remote operator who’s operating
this spot somewhere else with the cost
of living is not so high and the
expectations for income per hour per
year not so high you could in theory
have an offshore Optimus operator for
the fraction of the cost of hiring a
nanny or a housekeeper or a cook locally
for up a huge amount of time and guess
what if such a scenario were to occur
while this bot is being operated
remotely it’s training and it’s learning
you understand this is just like having
Tesla drivers in their vehicles
monitoring intervening when fsds active
and not right the same shit’s going to
happen with these Optimus spots in my
opinion not only will they be sold to
customers with some basic functionality
first in Factory and Warehouse settings
but that will increasingly widen to just
about every task you can imagine but
while this is happening there’s also
going to be a separate set of Optimus
spots the same Hardware that are being
sold to customers with the intent of
being operated remotely an enormous
amount of training data at scale this is
to be wanting to build these things as
fast as they possibly can so that was a
very very very long way of saying I
suggest what we’ll hear from Tesla is
that Optimus production’s going to be
happening within a few years and most
people are going to laugh at that idea
ignore it pretend it’s not happening
call it a stock pump and continue
trimming their Tesla positions what is
Tess’s current assessment of the pathway
toward regulatory approval for
unsupervised fstd in the US and how
should we think about the appropriate
safety threshold compared to human
drivers this is quite a good question as
I’ve said in the past here’s what’s
likely to happen Tesla’s already having
many hundreds if not thousands of
intervention free drives in cforia right
now especially in the city of San
Francisco Tesla is collecting data on
all of these drives Tesla currently
already has a mountain of data
Regulators listen to data I don’t think
that Tesla getting regulatory approval
is the major obstacle most people
suspect I think when Tesla themselves
are confident that their vehicles are
significantly safer and I don’t know the
exact threshold to the second part of
the question but let’s just say twice as
safe now you might argue it needs to be
10 times maybe it only needs to be 5%
more I don’t know who cares Tesla’s got
to have an increasingly large mountain
of data showing ever increasing
capability and safety so whatever that
threshold is Tesla is going to be able
to mount a bulletproof case two
Regulators here’s the data for vehicles
in this region look the Teslas are twice
as safe in all situations and scenarios
as human drivers you will have blood on
your hands if you don’t approve the
operation of our Rob taxis at least in
this region my best guess is we’re going
to see pocket after pocket after pocket
different geographies in the United
States initially where Tesla one after
the other very quickly gets approval for
unsupervised FSD now it’s quite likely
that initially Tesa will have human
drivers supervising their initial robot
taxis maybe I’m wrong but I suspect the
process goes as follows Tesla gives
Regulators an absolute T of data
look look how safe these vehicles are
twice as safe as humans please we need
approval thank you done Tesla
gets approval Tesla then takes the extra
step being extra cautious and safe of
deploying the first 100 500 th000 Robo
taxis in San Francisco pick your area
but they all have human drivers
supervising just in case and there’s a
sort of Handover period where there are
humans even though they don’t legally
need supervision they’re in the vehicles
just in case this is more for Optics
than anything else and once Tesla has
demonstrated many tens of thousands
hundreds of thousands millions of miles
maybe even the first billion miles in
this small pocket at some point the
safeties continue to improve then Tesla
themselves say look we’ve now proven to
ourselves beyond a shadow of doubt these
thingss are enormously safe
significantly more so than humans we
don’t need the human supervisors here I
think this is the same kind of role that
we’re likely to see region after region
after region and I actually think that
Tesla is going to be the more
conservative party not the regulators
and talking about approval here this
remember folks robot taxis have legally
been operating in a number of locations
in the United States now for a few years
I would be curious though let me know in
the comments below what do you guys and
girls think how does this roll out
happen that’s my best guess and I won’t
be surprised if the first t robot tax
are operating extremely likely in San
Francisco sometime next year now it is
possible that happens even earlier could
be later if you want to see all of my
estimates again check the link in the
pin comment to my Tes valuation model
where you find them just join patreon at
the investor level and above and I do
just once again want to remind people
that autonomy is a literal Deca trillion
is in 10 plus trillion opportunity and I
do believe that tesra is on the cusp of
solving this with an unsalable lead in a
Winer takes most Market which is exactly
why I I’m panicking and and selling all
my Tesla stock cuz gross Automotive
margins and demand another question on
robotaxis following Tesla’s robotaxi
unveil on 88 what is a realistic
timeline for launching a revenue
generating robot taxi Network now of
course the boy who cried robot taxi will
no doubt call himself out on this and
say I think it’s probably going to be at
this point but I’ve been wrong in the
past but I think even in the most
conservative scenario it can’t possibly
at least based on Tesla’s own goals and
estimates it can’t possibly be any later
than about 2 years from now if they’re
unveiling a robot taxi terms of the
vehicle they’ll be finalizing the
production systems then they’ll be
starting to rent production then they’ll
be producing them do the math another
investor was asking for progress on the
cheaper Next Generation vehicle so a lot
of people wanting to know about the new
platform last we heard from Tesla I
think it was last earnings call they’d
almost finalized the production systems
so let’s see if they now confirm they
have finalized them another investor
asking can we make FSD transfer
permanent now look I don’t understand
why this isn’t a thing anyway you buy
the software I would expect as somebody
who’s paid for the software that you
should be able to transfer now I
understand once autonomy solve things
get a little bit whack the value of this
software could immediately 5 10x or more
overnight so the caveat here until FSD
is fully delivered and level to five
autonomy which I totally get I think
this is completely reasonable I don’t
know why Tesla would not offer permanent
FSD transfer at least up until the point
where that software can now enable robot
taxes although that being said I think
there’s a pretty good chance once
autonomy is solved there’s no longer
going to be an upfront outright purchase
option for FSD I think instead everyone
is going to be moved onto a monthly
subscription and this one have any of
the Legacy automakers contacted Tesla
about possibly licensing FSD in the
future well you already know at least
one has and spoiler alert I am extremely
confident if it wasn’t Ford Ford
certainly since then have contacted
Tesla and I’ll take it a step further
and say that Ford who rumors recently
surfaced are in the early stages of
developing their own dedicated
autonomous vehicle are hoping remember
hope is not a strategy but it’s all for
Squad at the moment hoping that Tesla
FSD can actually save the company how do
I mean Jim fer gets on the phone yo El
what’s up brother keep doing what you do
bro so uh we’re kind of dying here we
need a bit of help we’re thinking our
only possible chance of surviving now is
to rely on Ford loyal customers who just
will never buy anything but a Ford and
let our ice vehicle business implode
spin out our EV business and actually
just focus on transport as a service so
would it be cool if we can agree ahead
of time that once you’ve solved autonomy
and you’ve got approval and done all the
hard work we can license FSD and be
producing vehicles with enough cameras
in the right places that the software
can run on our vehicles to and then have
a generous Revenue split so we can
actually make money selling FS to our
customers so that we don’t go bankrupt
Elon says well yeah that I guess that’s
in line with our mission it’s better for
you to not go bankrupt than for you to
go bankrupt so yes we’ll do that and
just finally I did poll my audience on X
quite recently maybe 2 hours ago when
will the first Tesla pay trip in a robo
taxi take place 15% voted for 2024 44%
the majority 2025 and almost 35% 2026 or
later so if the wisdom of the crowd is
anything to go by this is a little art
and a little science it looks like
expectations among deluded Tesla Fanboys
who happen to follow this guy on X or at
least vote on his polls are leaning
towards the second half of 2025 and hey
might not be that far off now before I
wrap up I thought exercise if in 2019
I’d pulled people and said when do you
think that you’ll be able to provide a
text prompt to an AI that will be able
to generate an image indistinguishable
from a photograph a Renaissance painting
what results might we have seen what
about the same time 2019 asked people
how long until we’ll be able to have a
conversation with a language based AI
that will seem coherent and
indistinguishable from something
generated by a human what about text the
video I think you get the point and if
you don’t let me spell it out the thing
about progress with AI is that we seem
to have these breakthrough moments these
hockey stick moments in terms of
capabilities where seemingly out of
nowhere suddenly what people thought was
decades or a century or more into the
future happens and not too much longer
after that in retrospect apparently it
seemed obvious to just about everyone so
what if autonomy has one of those hocky
stick moments as I record this with the
market closed late April 2024 Tesla’s
current market capitalization is $460
billion Tesla achieving 52- we lows B
down almost 64% from its peak closing
price back in 2021 many shortterm term
Traders abandoning the stock good for
them hope it pays off some lamenting if
only they’d sold their entire position
and I mean In fairness if trading in and
out of stocks is how you make your money
you didn’t own Tesla stock the last
couple of years you’d have been better
off but my question is 10 15 years from
now how many people are going to be
looking back to April 2024 lamenting if
only it had been obvious what was around
the corner if only we’d seen it come how
could Poss how could anyone have known I
mean how could it’s not my fault right
we couldn’t have known nobody could have
known it’s totally unpredictable no one
could have seen this coming want more
content Early Access bunch of perks
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there’s some Skeptics the same kind of
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if you’ll excuse me time to put my extra
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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Rumors: New Tesla Model 3 & Y Coming
4:41 Answering Top Investor Tesla Questions
4:56 What is the status of the 4680?
5:21 What is the status of Optimus? When is Optimus mass production?
10:15 Tesla’s Path to Unsupervised FSD in the US
13:33 When Will Tesla Robotaxi Produce Revenue?
14:07 Tesla’s Next Generation Vehicle: Progress
14:21 FSD Transfers (until autonomy is solved)
14:59 FSD Licensing
16:16 First Paid Tesla Robotaxi Trip: Wisdom of the Crowd
18:34 Want More Content? Early Access?
18:38 Drink AG1

In this video, Tesla’s Perfect Storm…

Tags: #Tesla #TSLA #FSD #ElonMusk #TeslaStock #TSLA #TeslaBot #Optimus #Engineering

👕 Merch: https://solving-the-money-problem.creator-spring.com/ 👕

As always, in this video I’m just sharing my thinking process and my reasoning. Keep using your own brain. Don’t be a sheep. 🐑

I love you all,
Steven

p.s. Share your thoughts below. I love to read the comments!

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