Is Tin the Next Uranium? (Brian Laks Interview)

Is Tin the Next Uranium? (Brian Laks Interview)

R money miners here we go BR LAX from
the old west fun oh God mate how good’s
the bloody us at the moment jeez we’re
going to have to move over soon Bri save
us the bloody getting up
early thanks for uh thanks it’s almost
five o’clock here so we’re um four
o’clock we’re we’re doing just fun where
are you east west where you situ I’m I’m
in Los Angeles so on on the west coast
here so glad we were able to figure out
a time zone God’s country mate Brian we
are very thankful you’ve you’ve made the
time for us you one of these funds we
sort of come across hadn’t heard about
before we’d started the show in all
honesty and then we dig into it and
you’re talking about or you’re writing
about in your cly letters everything we
love to chat about we’ve got tin we’ve
got copper what else have we got Maddie
there was there was bits of lithium in
some chats I’ve heard you speak old
uranium uranium how could we forget
there was a bit of silver a bit of gold
mentioned and it’s really interesting
because you’re not a mining specific
fund but you’re sort of very value
oriented and you found your way in there
so I’m very excited to uh get into it
Maddie where should we start I think
uranium is one of the ones you’re most
excited we’re so much the wiser after
interviewing Mike alen the the other
week I wish I could bloody do it again
are your mates with Mike are you being
around the traps with him we’ve we’ve
talked before I met him before yeah like
I was telling you guys earlier I got a
little chuckle listening to that
interview because he definitely goes
deep at times and it’s uh not for the
fan of heart if it’s your first time
listening to that sort of thing oh mate
there was a lot of Googling going on
that weekend from from my end got a bit
of a bloody better understanding what
what is your sort of how much attention
is going towards uranium from your end
at the moment and probably more so when
did it start for
you yeah we we’ve been in uranium very
long time now I guess going on six seven
years um it was actually one of the
first things that I started looking at
when I joined old west back in 2016 um
it was still pretty early into the trade
there uh you know kind of depths of the
of the bare Market I think the uranium
price bought them that year um around
$18 and so there wasn’t a lot of people
looking at it there were a few I guess
farsighted people who thought maybe
there was some reason to believe that
things would change in the future um
which which we did and we started to do
a lot of work 2016
2017 um you know started to build some
positions and then 2018 we actually
launched a fund to to really focus there
just because you know our our most of
our funds are pretty Diversified and so
having a large concentration into
something like uranium when you’re at
the bottom of the market and a lot of
these stocks were were basically micro
caps you know it really made sense to
have a separate vehicle um to do those
types of Investments and so that’s
actually the the fund that I managed
today so well I guess working the big
thing we took out of the the chat with
Mike was how how the I guess the the
modeling works for this working working
backwards from the amount of reactors
that are due to due to come online then
the enrichment capacity into that then
the supply drive and the tail that’s
going to come out of those be used in
those that enrichment facility do you do
much modeling on that sort of real macro
scale of uranium or you’re more focused
on sort of what equities are most
exposed to it what’s your sort of
thesis it’s a it’s a little bit of both
I mean I think you have to if you’re
going to look at the the sector you have
to get familiar with what the supply and
demand is so you know what mines are
producing what or can produce you know
looking at that whole Supply stack the
cost curve um and then from the demand
side where do you see it going I I think
at the time our view was that the supply
had just been completely destroyed uh
after whatever that was 5 years of a
bare market and so really it was a
supply driven thesis that if you believe
that demand was not dead which I think a
lot of people did they thought nuclear
power was over but if you had a view
that it was um still going and that they
were building reactors and that the
reactors that were here were going to be
kept alive um it was pretty evident that
there was not going to be enough Supply
to to meet that demand and the price was
too low to give it incentive for new
mines and that’s actually really a
common recipe that we see in some of the
places that we invest in is that you
know there’s a shortage of something and
in order for there to be more supplied
brought online you’re going to need
higher prices for those projects to make
sense and so you know at the time it was
a lot of looking at development projects
there weren’t a lot of producers out
there I mean cico was the big one you
know because Adam prom didn’t come
public until I think you know late 2018
time frame so really it was you want to
buy camico or you know there’s a bunch
of uranium projects that don’t make
sense that 20 bucks or 25 bucks um but
we had the view that hey the price needs
to go up dramatically in order for these
projects to be brought on because I
think we will need these projects and so
you could really if you had the view
that it was going to say you know north
of 50 or 60 and you could run that
through these mine plans um a lot of
them were trading at 10 or 20 cents on
the dollar and so you know coming out of
2019 2020 I mean we were probably a top
10 shareholder in a lot of the household
uranium names um you know and and still
own a bunch to this day I think today
it’s a little bit different of an
analysis because the price has adjusted
it’s gone from 20 to 100 um you know
pulled back a little bit it’s around 90
I think right now so a lot of those
projects that we were looking at you
know now they actually have the right
price environment to be developed and
now it’s just a matter of timing you
know um like we wrote about in our our
letter we just released just because the
price gets to a place where you can
start building projects doesn’t mean uh
your shortage is fixed overnight now you
know how long’s it going to take to
build and all of that sort of thing are
they permited are they under
construction um and so really I I think
looking at it
today it’s not so much that we need a
much higher price well we probably still
do I think you know that was a good
conversation you had with Mike last week
that even if you bring on a lot of these
mines it still doesn’t solve the deficit
and so really the question today is how
high does It Go um and then does it you
know is it a spike and then comes back
or is it more of a gradual Rise um and I
think you know when you start looking at
those questions the type of Investments
That it leads you to differs from what
it did you know four or five years ago
when we were um really heavy in the
space Brian you had a you had a funny
quote in a podcast I listened to that
you done about half a year ago and
describing what you just said there and
you you called cico your sort of gateway
drug into the into the world of uranium
that was um I thought that was quite
funny I want to tie this in with your
investment style because you’re very
value oriented you know buff Munga style
Ben grah style of investing how do you
see the the balance as you know the the
thesis is sort of played out not
completely played out but to an extent
has played out and you need to start
looking at Value in some of these names
some of the uranium miners or developers
just were were expensive by a lot of
measures late last year and things have
changed as the price sort of floats
around but where we’re sitting today how
do you see value across the Spectrum
perhaps looking at sprot and the
physical trust versus is some of the
miners but producers developers
explorers yeah it’s I think it’s a
different sort of analysis I mean I
guess it’s similar analysis but there’s
a different starting point you know the
valuations of a lot of these names are
much different than they were four or
five years ago a lot of the stocks have
gone up fivefold or tfold or more um and
so I think back then you could really
just kind of close your eyes and throw a
dart at the space and you’d probably do
well um over a fewe period um now I
think there’s probably more
opportunities for um you know relative
value is more important I think there’s
some stocks that are probably overpriced
or baking in you know a really high
uranium price there are probably some
that are more fairly valued um but it’s
not um and I guess I would add to that
you know the the physical price um you
know owning something like sput or
physical uranium actually probably makes
a lot more sense now especially if you
believe that there’s going to be a spike
in the price because of this timing lag
that maybe does get captured by guys
that are going to you know bring on
projects 5 years from now so it’s just
it’s a different way of looking at
things you have a different starting
valuation and I think if you look at our
portfolio and you know we have to file
we’re big enough where we file a 13f so
most of the US names um that we own you
can see in our filings uh you can see
that our the number of names we’ve owned
has has shrunk dramatically I mean we
only we’ve really concentrated around
what we think are the highest quality
ones um and I think probably more so
have looked to
kind of recoil that Spring by looking
for other areas that have that same sort
of fundamental setup but where the price
hasn’t um yet inflected to that point
where you know now hey if you want to
bring on a mine you can and it’s just a
matter of are there enough and then how
long does it take so you know I think
probably to sum it up that it’s um
there’s still I think plenty of upside
ahead uh a lot of the stocks have
started to price that in some more so
than others um and I think one of the
interesting things to look at is is you
know which stocks are well above the
highs that they made in you know call it
mid to late 2021 because cuz some of
them are are are still below that um and
I I think you’ve seen that bifurcation
in in quality and valuation start to
play out and it’s a lot more important
to do that sort of work than it was kind
of in the early days when a rising tide
really lifted all the boats and just
across the board with with your inven
investment your your uranium investment
inani didn’t know what bloody is this a
finance word I didn’t so excited I’m
stumbling to get the words out across
the board on your uranium investment how
do you think about that that position as
a whole given the correlation is is
quite High amongst a lot of these names
in terms of positioning it in your
portfolio have you gone about that the
you know over the past three or four
years that you’ve been looking at
it yeah like I said it’s gotten more
concentrated we’ve become more selective
um more Discerning we probably only have
a handful full of names now whereas you
know four years ago at at the bottom of
Co we maybe had 25 names um really took
more of a basket Approach at at the
outset just because there weren’t a lot
of ways to get exposure to it I mean if
you remember at the time this was
probably early to mid uh 2018 there was
really only one ETF out there it was the
UR um and they they changed their index
basically at the bottom of the market
because the stocks got too a liquid and
so they added they added half of the
portfolio as you know kind of nuclear
adjacent companies but there was a lot
of irrelevant stuff in there and so we
kind of built our own sort of pseudo ETF
inhouse of a basket of names you know
producers developers explorers um
because we weren’t really sure how it
was going to play out we had a very
strong view that the price had to rise
and and and pretty significantly um but
we weren’t really sure I mean there’s
kind of a path dependency on a lot of
these names on on which is going to
outperform and so we didn’t try to be
heroes and say hey we’re just going to
pick one name and and hope it does the
best um you know we were actually kind
of surprised in hindsight that some of
the names that did the best for us were
ones we might not have um picked uh if
we had to just pick one because I think
when you get a strongly Rising commodity
uh price environment a lot of times you
know some of the real small liquid maybe
higher cost stuff um sees a
disproportionate move higher sort of a
dash for trash they might call it um and
so we wanted to own kind of a broad
spectrum of names just to encapsulate
all of that where you know the overall
return for that whole portfolio would
look um Superior to just sort of trying
to pick one name based on quality or
valuation or something like that how do
you look at spot in terms of uh trading
it if you if still got the uh positive
view on uranium and say like you know
spot’s trading at a 5% discount to nav
so do you look at it right I still
believe in the uranium thesis I can get
A1 for 95 here or is it not that simple
when tried and
spot you know I think sput is good for
someone who has a view that uh they they
really want to play the spot price um
because that what is what they think
will squeeze higher um you know in the
in the coming years or quarters or
whatever their time frame is versus a
minor where you know if unless it gets
sort of traded as like a trading sardine
and valued up alongside Orizon that you
know the way we think of it is what is
the price they’re going to earn over the
life of the mine and that’s why I said
it really depends is your view that the
price of uranium is going to spike to
200 or higher um over a short period of
time uh and then potentially fall back
down or Plateau you know it really
depends on what your view of where
uranium prices go and how they go
because I I think if you’re um you know
if your view is that that because
there’s even though the price is here
there’s not enough Supply coming online
and that’s going to create a big squeeze
uh sputs probably the way to to play
that because that’s going to get the
purest expression of of what that price
does whereas you know these equities are
supposed to be sort of discounting
machines of what cash flows they can
generate and if it’s a big spike and
drop they’re not necessarily going to
capture that and so there’s an extra
layer of that which is what are the
stocks already pricing in I think that
was one of the reasons we Consolidated
our portfolio a little bit over the last
couple of years was you know it seemed
like uh the equities had gotten ahead of
themselves versus what the what the
uranium price had done you know remember
the uranium price kind of ran in its
initial move to 50 in 2020 and 2021 a
lot of the stocks had a real big move
over that two-year period um and then
you really had the price of uranium kind
of Flatline there for about 18 months it
was really pinned at 50 bucks um and you
saw a lot of the equities kind of digest
that move and and and retrace a bit and
then kind of middle of the last year
they started to pick back up as the
uranium price started to run again so
you know I think what are the equities
pricing in and and JD kind of hinted at
it you know some of these things are um
getting pretty frothy in terms of
valuation or alternatively you need to
believe that the price goes much higher
to justify them if you’re doing like a
traditional valuation um sort of effect
um methodology but really I think for
Spud it’s you know probably a good way
to play physical if you’re not if you’re
not buying it yourself and as as Mike
alluded to it’s it’s it’s difficult it’s
not for everybody to set up a an account
at a converter and try to store physical
pounds there so it is it is a nice um
vehicle to exist but like I said I I
think that we’re less interested in
trying to play kind of a squeeze type
scenario with a big part of our capital
I think we liked that we we like the
setup a few years ago when this sort of
same fundamental setup existed but the
price was below what anyone’s view of
marginal cost was I think we do see that
same sort of setup in other Commodities
which is why we’ve really broadened out
our um our portfolio to include some of
these other opportunities especially as
the valuations on the uranium side have
gotten to kind of more you know I don’t
want these normalized levels but you
know they’re they’re more reflective of
of a of a of a market that’s in in
deficit than they were you know four or
five years ago when they were just being
given away and so if if if we can still
own the ones that we think are going to
benefit from increased price movement
which we think is likely but also kind
of like I said recoil the spring and
find some of these other areas that have
a similar shortage scenario but the
price hasn’t started to move yet um
we’ve been adding more of that to our
portfolio and it’s given us a little bit
um more balance just to close the
uranium one out mate in terms of the
Contracting side of things and if we’re
going to sort of head towards a bit more
of a spike in the Contracting what are
what what is on your radar in terms of
probably companies and projects that
you’re waiting to see what contracts are
going to be put in place to give a feel
of what this floor and ceiling
Arrangements going to be going forward
well yeah I think everyone watches camoo
because they’re really the the most
transparent um uh in an industry where a
lot of these things are confidential
they’re not disclosed they’re just
bilateral agreements but usually on
their quarterly conference calls they’ll
give an update of the of the Contracting
Market I think a lot of people are
waiting to see um what NextGen does uh
obviously it’s a huge mine um you know
and people are wondering how that how
that material is going to get pieced
into the market um because it is a it
would be a very big chunk of of world
production when it comes on and how does
it get phase and all of that so I mean
those are uh two a couple names that
we’d be watching for and then just you
know kind of more General news on on the
different players kind of more bit
players that are getting contract signed
what are what’s the chatter coming out
of that um
you know like I said I still think that
there’s a lot of um upside ahead uh it’s
really now though you know these things
dislocate from the fundamentals on the
way down I think that’s where they were
um kind of through the late teens when
when when they you know there’s no
reason for the uranium price to trade so
low for so long there were kind of a few
unique quirks to the industry that
allowed that can to get kicked for a
while um I think the uranium price can
dislocate from fundamentals to the
upside as well uh I I think we’re kind
of already getting to that point because
you know here we are at $90 and it’s not
like there’s a wave of Supply coming on
tomorrow they still have to build these
things um and like you’re you know Mike
alluded to last week There’s even if you
give every bring all these things on
you’re probably still short over the
next five six years so um it’ll be an
interesting time but um how high it goes
I don’t know that that that’s um
something that’s uh kind of out of my
wheelhouse I I much prefer looking at
things where I know that hey if the
price of something is below the marginal
cost and we need more I mean the price
is going to have to rise I think you you
see that um in some of these other
places and so you know we still own uh
what we view as kind of a high quality
basket of uranium names that should
benefit if the price continues to to
rise like we think it has to I mean the
Market’s not going to get balanced
anytime soon but it’s a much easier um
it’s a much easier thesis for me to say
hey I’m looking at XYZ commodity it’s in
shortage and no one’s going to bring on
a project unless the price goes up a
bunch um and you know a lot of these
things that we look at are pretty Niche
the valuations are are are quite low
because I don’t think there’s a lot of
attention on them and so we’re happy to
really start building positions in in
these areas ahead of you know when when
the price starts to move and when the
crowd um really starts to to jump on
these things very good thanks M love it
Brian I want to talk about 10 now and
the the way I want to go about this to
start is to to learn how you discovered
tin because you know in your investment
style you say you’re you’re not top down
and you know going Bottom up in tin
we’re really talking about metalx and
Alpha Min is that the way in which you
discovered you know the the market setup
in tin and then you you know you learn
about it more broadly or was tin a bit
different how did it all come about to
start with yeah 10 I guess it first came
on our radar probably
this probably early 2020 was um alphaman
had just brought on their mine a few
months earlier and you know there were
some there were some guys talking about
it you know it actually uh alfman was
was the first way we heard about it you
know the stock had done really
well excuse me the first I guess few
months of um 2020 it was up like 60% or
something and so you saw guys talking
about it and then Co hit and it got cut
in half and it was one of those things
where I was like oh man you know glad we
dodged that bullet um and then kind of
forgot about it for a while and and then
you know ricked it up maybe later in
2020 when we saw that it had doubled
kind of back to that same level it had
been before um you know and it was one
of these things where the the the thesis
made sense you know it was a very
similar type of story of hey there’s a
shortage here and the price is too low
we’re going to need more Supply we’re g
to you know it’s kind of the same thing
um but at the time you know we were so
focused on uranium it was just you know
almost one of these you know Curiosities
but then we you know kind of did a
little bit of work on it and and put it
to the side um you know I I think we
didn’t really uh get involved until kind
of early 2021 um Mid
2021 um you know and at that time it was
it was it was playing out in a in a
strong way you had the a big um demand
pull forward from Co everyone buying you
know new laptops and computers and stuff
you had some supply chain snarls
happening that uh
really caused a bit of a squeeze um
excuse me to you know the price got to
like I want to say maybe 50,000 um a ton
in in early 22 so you got a glimpse of
how tight the market was and you know
fragile that Supply demand balance was
um you know but like I said for for most
of those years we were pretty heavily
invested in uranium and so that was our
main focus um you know throughout 2022
obviously in the middle of 2022 the
price peaked out you had a couple things
happen uh the FED started raising
interest rates and China shut down their
economy for covid zero and so a lot of
Commodities got whacked 10 especially so
um you know it’s it’s a pretty small
Market it’s very volatile you had some
um Traders and speculators jumping on it
and pounding it down and so you saw the
price drop I think it was 60% in like
six months and so for us who you
know an ideal situation for us is to
find something that has a good long-term
setup but then poor short-term either
sentiment or Dynamics right because that
allows you to really build positions and
things um when people hate them um even
though you have a view that maybe a few
years out things are going to look a lot
different and we have the benefit of you
know an investor base that knows that
that’s our our style of of long-term
investing and kind of zigging when the
Market’s zagging and if we can find
something that has that compelling
fundamental setup and do the work and
build the positions when no one’s
looking at it or the Market’s weak for
some reason um that’s ideal for us and
so throughout 2022 as the market was
crashing we’re like this is great I mean
we were you know I just really started
ramping up doing a lot of work on it so
we dialed up a lot of the positions
throughout 2022 you know the market
bottom there I think in in late 22 and
then um started to improve throughout
2023 and and and really it was over
those two years that we built our
positions um you know it’s for what we
were kind of viewing as an eventuality
of hey people you know during the a rate
hike cycle and you know China worries
everyone’s just focused on the demand
side of things and just selling every
commodity no one wants to touch it how
low are these things going to go how
high our rates going to go you know it
was this whole conversation focused on
the demand side and and no one wanted to
touch anything no one cared about all
these Supply problems that were on the
horizon which is really um what got us
interested in is the supply situation
was just just a a complete mess um and
so we’re like look at at some point this
is going to start to bite here even if
the the you know General investment
Community doesn’t want to touch
Commodities here because you know
they’re afraid of How High rates might
go so anyways that’s that’s our ideal
scenario and and we were we were buying
a lot of this stuff um the last couple
of years and you know sure enough you
fast forward to I guess earlier this
year and all of a sudden people start
focusing on the supply side of the
commodity problems um and you start to
see a little bit of um strength in the
prices um you know I think it it just
kind of shows that well one you need the
right type of investor base that is
willing to you know ride with you while
you’re While You’re Building those
positions and things are going against
you but you know as we saw with uranium
um you know I mean I guess if I draw a
parallel there in 2018 and 2019 when we
were building our uranium positions uh I
mean the stocks were languishing I mean
they were they were terrible Investments
um but because of the way we you know
design and we we you know raise over
time and we build positions over time it
actually worked to our benefit to have a
a short-term period of negative
performance because we can continually
build these positions at lower and lower
cost so that when eventually these
long-term fundamentals start to shine
through we already have you know full
position sizing and and and we’re off
for the races is is 10 like what can you
what other commodity can you compare it
to in terms of the amount of pure play
investments in there like you said Al
Metals X like is it similar to like a
niobium like where you got just bugger
all plays to get a pure exposure to it
you know I I think niobia maybe is a
little bit more concentrated you know
they got the one guy producing you know
80 or 90% of the market but for for 10
yeah there’s there’s not a lot of ways
to play it that’s actually something we
really like about it um uranium we used
to think was was that way I mean when we
were first looking at the sector there
were maybe only 15 or 20 names um of you
know of any sort of Merit and maybe a
fewer portion of that was uh were things
that actually could be invested in um
and we thought that was great right
because you look at something like gold
or even copper and there’s hundreds of
ways to play it um and so it’s kind of a
it’s kind of a maze to to dig through
all that um you know looking at uranium
where there were only a dozen names or
so was was actually refreshing tin I
mean it’s you know yeah like you said
there’s only really a handful of names
there that that you can invest in that
are big enough that are that are
meaningful that aren’t just kind of
lowquality promotional projects and so
it it we like that because um you know
we can build positions there and if
we’re right about the thesis and we’re
right that the flows need to come in you
know they get pretty concentrated into
only a few names it’s not like you know
gold people decide they want to own gold
miners and it’s like you got a list you
know 500 companies Long of of which ones
they can pick I mean if if if you start
to do the math on tin you say hey I
think there’s something here there
aren’t a lot of ways to Express that
view and so I think that works to our
benefit where if we can identify these
things ahead of a lot of the investment
Community doing that work then we can
build positions at a pretty low cost and
and really let the market come to us um
you know so we we can have a pretty
heavy weight and something um before
people start to look at it and then you
know kind of lighten it up to a more
normal waiting you know as the as the
thesis plays out and these things go
from extremely cheap to to very cheap
haes haes SL to
that would be the best thing about it
wouldn’t it that’s well that’s right
well look I think especially with
something like uranium there’s a huge
learning curve there as you guys got a
nice dose of last week when you were
talking to Mike it’s a it’s a very
complex industry and so you don’t want
to have to scramble and start all of
your research once the things are
already moving and everybody’s piling in
we love having a nice year or to to to
Really dive into something get to
understand it well when no one’s talking
about it no one’s doing anything the are
trading for nothing um that’s just a
perfect scenario and I think we saw that
in tin the last couple of years when you
know the 10 price was in the $20,000
range nobody’s making money you know
half the industry is hurting um but
that’s a great time to to be you know
building models and and looking at where
the supply is going to come from and
what’s demand doing and all all that
sort of work that takes time to really
do it well it’s nice to be able to do it
um when the stocks are still being given
away and not a lot of other people are
talking about it I mean look there’s a
handful of people that are talking about
it like I told JD earlier I mean that’s
one of the reasons um you know I’m a big
fan of the show you guys actually talk
about some of that stuff there’s not a
lot of ways to find information on the
sector I think that’s um you know a good
thing and a bad thing right I mean
everyone wants to be a contrarian and
take some view that something’s going to
be very different a few years from now
but eventually the market has to agree
with you because that’s how you get paid
otherwise these things just sort of
languish at very low multiples um you
know you want to be a contrarian uh and
identify the momentum before it comes
momentum but if you’re all if if these
things just stay unknown or stay low
value I mean you’re not going to really
get paid on your money I think there’s a
lot of value traps out there that people
find themselves in that never really get
that reating um but yeah it’s it’s nice
not having to um you know analyze a 100
companies uh I mean it’s it’s pretty you
you can look at the sector and pretty
quickly see who’s real and who’s not um
it’s it’s that doesn’t take a lot time I
guess takes time is to really understand
uh the supply and demand and say hey is
is this actually going to work like we
think it is um because if it does and
you know we like these situations where
it doesn’t actually have to work in a
big way um for you to do very well and I
think you can that’s why I like
investing in these things when the price
of the commodity is below that marginal
cost because you think that’s at least a
floor that it has to get to um and then
the fact that these companies are
trading it like you know two times or
three times uh that’s that’s easy for us
let’s just kind of sit here and wait you
don’t want to wait forever there’s a bit
of a timing component here um but I
think if you can identify something that
has uh that sort of upside you can still
wait a few years and your annual return
is going to be very good um and so you
know it’s it’s uh it’s it’s worked for
us and we’ve been able to build um a
portfolio around it and I think if you
can kind of stagger these different
sorts of opportunities at different um
time intervals you can really keep it
Evergreen and not uh you know not just
be having to wait for one thing to work
for your whole portfolio to work in in
your research there getting deep into
tin I’m sure you would have come across
the dynamic that played out with Myanmar
and the the setup a decade or so ago you
know wasn’t wasn’t too dissimilar from
what it is now and manmar came a bit
from Left Field obviously there’s a few
other things going on but how do you
think about these risks from from Left
Field potential countries potential
sources of Supply that could just come
out and CH changed the game
really yeah I think we saw that um in
nickel really with the Indonesians you
know over the last couple of years um in
Myanmar for 10 yeah I mean they they
basically came out of nowhere and and
became the third largest producer um but
then it it went away just as quickly as
it came because it was I think it was an
artisanal mine and they realized there
was a lot of tin there and so they did a
little bit more heavy lifting were’re
able to to really produce a bunch but
then kind of hit a wall and said hey if
we’re going to continue to do this um
you know we need to really bring in some
serious capital and some more um kind of
industrial mining methods and you know I
think that was a big problem because
that that wasn’t the way they had done
it before and so you know it’s also in a
kind of a a wild part of the world there
it’s in that Breakaway region of the
country you know they had a coup there a
few years ago China is heavily involved
it’s right on the border um you know it
just is a it’s a pretty crazy thing to
think about that that was you know 10 or
15% of the world’s 10 or more I guess
that’s what it is now um you know and so
it looked like there was a bit of a
maybe a cash grab there you know they
they they shut down that mine last year
um you know there was a lot of talk
about it earlier in the year last year
than they officially did it I think in
August and you know it was hard to get
news out of there I mean it’s really
hard to find um Myanmar
news but you know I think that uh the
government or whoever the whatever
they’re ruling party is um of that
Breakaway region you know said okay you
can turn back these mines on but uh you
know we want 30% of the 10 I mean there
was kind of a you know it was it wasn’t
a perfect solution I mean you know I
guess it wasn’t as bad for Myanmar well
maybe it was but it was kind of B worse
for the Chinese who were reliant on that
on that um that concentrate to feed
their smelters um you know they’re kind
of half the market so uh you know yeah
it’s it’s thinking about how those
things can can come on I mean it wasn’t
overnight I mean it it ramped from you
know maybe 2012 to 2017 so it was kind
of this fiveyear story um but like I
said it went away just as fast and we
are um I guess mindful that the you can
find new sources of Supply but there’s
just not a lot of people looking for it
right now and I think that’s the really
interesting thing about looking at some
of these Commodities where the pric is
temporarily low for some reason is
there’s not an incentive to go spend a
lot of money look for this stuff um if
the 10 price starts to rise yeah maybe
you’ll see some exploration dollars flow
but then there’s no guarantee that that
comes on either and you know then those
things have to be built and you’re kind
of like where uranium is is okay now the
price is high uh who’s going to build
the stuff that’s already out there and
then what else is there that we can
build um you know and how much higher
does these prices have to go to really
smoke out enough Supply um to balance
the market so I’m not I’m less worried
about another Myanmar coming out of
nowhere with some unforeseen Supply than
I am just about
um you know really the the thing that’s
weighed on tin in the past has been the
demand side um you know and what’s
happening there I think we really had a
bit of a hangover from that covid demand
pull forward in 2022 and 2023 but you’re
starting to see you know semi demand
pick back up and if that’s the case and
people are going to focus on Supply and
I just I don’t see Supply coming
anywhere close to meeting demand um
we’re going to need a lot of projects
and a lot of them are you know need a
much higher price to be developed and so
you know in the ideal world the price
goes up to let some of these marginal
projects in um or at least get to that
level and then the guys that can produce
or can do it at a little bit lower cost
are going to earn those extra margins
over a longer period of time than you
would expect I think that’s the way we
see things playing out and it’s
surprising to us that you can buy these
things at at pretty cheap valuations
today um if that’s how it does play out
who’s your preferred pick out of
alphaman and Metal X oh man you’re gonna
get a lot of people angry at me on
Twitter it it goes back and forth um you
know I can see why uh a lot of people
like alphaman just because of uh just
it’s it’s a real Peerless asset I mean
it’s it’s the best mine in the world
it’s just in a real rough part of town
and so it’s got that big jurisdiction
discount and there’s a question whether
it will ever um you know overcome that
especially since the news there just it
doesn’t seem be that good but at the
asset level I mean it’s it’s really hard
to beat and I think that you know
they’ll what they’ll do is you know pay
dividends or you know maybe do a buyback
or something to return that Capital to
shareholder in the event that the market
never wants to rate it um Metals X is a
little bit different right I mean you’ve
had a few guests talk about it on your
show there was some concern that you
know they they’re sitting on a bunch of
cash like half the market cap but will
will investors ever see that is there
some you know misalignment of interest
there uh governance issues that might
prevent that Capital return I think they
addressed it a little bit uh you know a
month or so ago when they did that
buyback but the buyback was small and so
you you know I think it just highlights
there’s not a really perfect way to play
um the sector I mean you’ve got kind of
everything’s got got uh got issues with
it um you know I think today we may have
uh metalx maybe a little bit um higher
weighted in in our commodity fund you
know in our in our general funds I think
we own alphaman just because it does
have that kind of overall appeal um it’s
extremely low cost so they can weather
the volatility but um like I said it
changes given the different fluctuations
and prices and Outlook but you know
metalx probably has the edge today just
because because of how much cash they
have um it it is a little bit cheaper um
and you don’t have really the
jurisdiction risk to worry about um you
know alphaman is cheap if you want to uh
give it proforma for the the second mine
that they’re bringing on um which should
be you know is basically imminent um and
so you know I think you can kind of get
a close evaluation there but the real
question is how much um do you want to
avoid having any sort of jurisdiction
risk and so I mean we own both I think
it’s a you know it’s um it’s a pretty
easy sell um given where they’re valued
and what our what our Outlook is for the
10 price and what that means for what
these companies can earn JD I reckon
we’ll bloody I reckon we need to amp up
the Jo fids and the Jo Cam and the
fraking assay compilation to get more
tinant and verify AI I reckon that’s the
answer mate something that is scarce
that is how we’re going to find it if I
was an Explorer looking for medals tin
would be very much on my radar I’ve just
heard what Brian’s had to say about the
uh Supply demand Dynamics and with
verify ai’s new product coming in
they’re going to help you find it it’s
going to be that much cheaper that much
easier it’s a no-brainer right verify AI
is the vehicle to take your company
towards being a 10 Explorer developer
producer it is as easy as that JD get
onto them get Grant ver give Grant at
verify.com an email no in that verify
and they will make the on the it is a
sophisticated onboarding process
training everything like they they map
it out they don’t just hand it to you
and expect you to use it they map it out
for you they help you they compile all
the data and mate they are a freaking
brilliant business get verified mining
companies should we chat about copper
next Maddie oh mate copper geez I’d I’d
imagine that’s another 2020 or previous
uh play where you’ve been building the
position there just a
hunch yeah I mean we’ve we’ve owned some
copper for a while um just sort of as a
as a generalist does you know I think
we’ve owned Freeport for quite some time
um more recently over the last call it I
guess three four years we’ve started
adding more copper um you know we’re
really big fans of what the londin are
doing down in South America I think it’s
a you know in a if if you have the view
that we’re going to need a lot more
copper and there haven’t been a lot of
discoveries there haven’t been a lot of
exploration all that sort of stuff you
know it’s only natural that we would be
interested in something where it looks
like it’s one of the bigger discoveries
of a generation here and the fact that
they have these people behind it with
Deep Pockets and this expertise
operating expertise of you know decades
multiple generations of the family it
really is a a good setup that we like in
the space and given how the the price of
copper was basically chopping around for
the last few years we didn’t really want
to just have Pure Play copper exposure
we wanted something where there was like
a value creation lever and you know I
think you know we own felo that was a
pretty good example in 2022 where you
know I think the copper price was down
10 15% or something in in felo was one
of our best performing stocks I think it
nearly doubled that year and so if you
can have something that’s not just a
proxy on the on the copper price that’s
a real good way to to hide out kind of
in a short-term environment where you
know no one like I said no one wanted to
own Commodities you know in 2022 and
2023 um up until really earlier this
year I mean I think that’s been the big
shift on how we’ve been looking at
Copper is it looks like um some of that
demand concern that we saw over the last
two years is starting to shift to supply
concerns you saw the price recently
break out I don’t know what it’s at now
maybe 450 or something the fact that
it’s broken out of that range that it
was in for so long I think we’re more
willing to add companies that have that
sort of um you know pork to higher
copper prices um you know obviously you
still want to have some sort of value
creation levers that play but you know
you look some of these copper producers
and if the price goes from four to five
I mean their earnings are really going
to go up um a lot and you know you look
at some of the estimates of where copper
has to go to really balance the market
um you know I think it wouldn’t be out
of the question to see six bucks a pound
or higher over the over the next few
years and if that’s the case and these
things are in our View kind of
dramatically
misvalued um and so we’re happy to
really own um a bunch of them that we
think will benefit the most from that
you speak about talk there a word we are
very fond of and you know that plays
into the um the price picking up and
then there being a flight to to trash as
you as you sort of put it before
anecdotally how do you how do you see
the popularity of of metals and Mining
and commodity stocks broadly in the in
the US at the
moment it’s not popular at all that’s
one of the reasons we we like it um you
know we do a lot of work with financial
advisor
and you know they for the most part they
don’t own any any Commodities um or
their clients don’t for their clients or
if they do it’s like they own you know
maybe some oil and gas ETF right you
know the big commodity ETFs are very oil
and gas heavy maybe they own a little
bit of copper or something you know like
I said some free Port but for the most
part you look at like the index
weightings of um Mining and the S&P I
mean the materials index is only about 2
or 3% uh of the S&P and a small fraction
of that is is actual mining companies
and so for the most part people don’t
own it um and I don’t think they feel
like they have to own it because a lot
of funds that people own really just
track the index um and so everybody owns
a lot of tech and mega cap and you know
whatever AI stock is hot at the time but
uh you know I think Commodities is is
not that popular you’re starting to see
more interest in it I think that’s
really um what we like to see is that
people realize you know they read the
news they see what’s going on they see
it an alltime high they see people
talking about copper some of these other
things uranium um and say hey that’s a
really interesting you know what’s the
idea there and so we do a lot of these
calls um privately where we talk about
you know how this setup is just like
we’ve been talking about some of these
other things and I think you know
investors are saying hey this is really
interesting it kind of used to be the
thought that oh there aren’t a lot of
places to get growth in the market or
earnings grow I think that’s why so many
people have crowded into some of the
tech names um but but you know we lay
out our view on on why we think a lot of
these mining companies are going to see
pretty significant earnings growth over
the coming years you talked about you
know yeah the the the rising prices and
how that feeds into earnings especially
on some of the higher cost guys that
margin expansion I mean we think these
are going to be some of the better
earnings growth stories over the coming
years and yet they’re valued at some of
the lowest valuations of any sector we
see in the market and I think maybe
there’s a number of reasons for that but
one of the big reasons is probably
people didn’t have to own them for a
while a lot of people don’t like
cyclicals they don’t like Commodities
you know it’s hard enough to get the
company right now try to get the
commodity price right and so you’ve just
really seen almost avoidance of the
sector um and it hasn’t really mattered
because people could throw a dart at the
NASDAQ and you make your 20 or 30% a
year and so who cares right but when
that starts to slip and I think we saw a
little bit of that in 2022 when you know
a lot of the mega cap stuff crashed out
people you know it’s a little bit of a
wakeup call maybe not that much because
the stocks obviously bounced back in
2023 and everyone just bought the dip
but you’re starting to see it again I
think even this year as you know the the
tech stocks really came out hot out of
the gate and then you know the last
several weeks have been giving it back
and I I think um there’s a big question
amongst investors over how long you can
continue to to beat that horse of just
riding tech stocks um you know through
thick and thin every year uh there has
been a lot of appetite for things that
are differentiated where hey you can
show this is a very compelling long-term
return and it’s completely uncorrelated
from anything that you’re doing um and
so I think that’s why you know these
this the style investing that we do has
really resonated with a lot of investors
because you know it does have that sort
of return potential but it’s it’s
completely different from what other
people have been using to to get that
sort of thing how do you look at in
terms of the equities for copper because
copper Copper’s one of those Commodities
that has such a broad scale of capital
required you’ve got your small copper
operations you’ve got your massive poery
operations that require billions of
capex then you’ve got the I guess you
got the ones in the middle like your
sandfire and your Metals acquisition
that aren’t they’re not a big poery
they’re more your high bit higher gray
but they don’t require much Capital how
do you look at which ones to get the
most probably torque and most leverage
to the copper
price yeah well so for you know the last
few years um we weren’t we were in
development projects because I thought
that was where a lot of the value
creation was happening I think now that
the price is actually starting to to
rise you can shift a little bit more
towards near-term production current
producers um you know guys that are
going to see their their earnings grow
as as this as a rising copper price
flows through their income statement um
you know copper yeah there’s a lot of a
lot of names I mean I mean especially in
Australia traded there you know I think
it’s it’s it’s refreshing for us to be
able to look at companies that actually
have cash flow I mean I spent so many
years looking at uranium companies where
there was like one or two it was all all
just analyzing and valuing development
projects I think tin somewhat similar I
mean they’re really only a handful of
producers that you can model out so it’s
nice to come to something like copper
and say oh hey there’s you know dozens
of of producing companies where do you
want to spend your time like I said I
mean development stage was was really
where we um hit out for lack of better
word um for the last few years now that
we’re seeing some of these the price
start to actually move and people focus
on these Supply concerns yeah we we like
producers uh guys that can take that
Rising price and turn it into near-term
cash flow and then if you have some
extra levers that you can pull whether
it’s you know bringing on a new mine or
something like that where you’re going
to get some additional um you know
earnings growth that maybe is not being
um you know properly valued by the
market and that’s and that’s all the
better but really I think where we’ve
shifted and and what our portfolios are
probably seeing more of today are are
some of these producers that are
actually going to see a um you know
near-term boost to earnings and we think
that they’re trading pretty cheaply um
because I don’t think a lot of people
are are are expecting that now I will
say recently you know give it the last
maybe few months a lot of people have
been jumping on the copper bandwagon
you’ve seen a number of the big Banks
come out with reports talking about you
know price got to go to five six seven
bucks higher and so it’s not necessarily
anything secret um you know I think the
valuations have started to improve I
mean a lot of these copper companies are
up 30 40 50% over the last six months so
it has been um good timing for us uh I
think it probably continues that you
know these things are in a straight line
you know you may see some pullback from
from time to time but we’re not really
trying to estimate um what the daily
move is or even the monthly move you
know we’re looking at longer term supply
and demand thinking where do prices have
to go over the next few years um and if
the prices get there what does that
imply for what these companies can earn
and how are they value relative to that
earnings power and we think a lot of
these things are are very cheap because
like some of these other Commodities I I
think Supply is going to have a very
tough time meeting the demand that’s out
there which is just going to continue to
put upward pressure on prices until
people start to develop more Supply and
the people that can either bring on that
Supply at a low cost or are currently
producing are going to benefit from that
and so yeah it’s a big part of our our
portfolio today oh just one more on that
JD the so the your big por free like
yeah the ones in the vonia casabel Wy
GPO all all those sort of ones would you
class them as the most riskiest ones to
I know W’s inside Newmont but one in
terms of risky to invest in just because
of the the amount of capital required
and the risk of it being developed or
not based on getting that capital I yeah
I think anytime you have an earlier
stage project there’s there’s more of
those risks um a lot of times it’s those
big projects like you mentioned that you
know maybe it’s worth taking those risks
because there’s a lot of value there I
mean I’ll give you an example I think
our our biggest copper position right
now I think is filo which is one of
those giant development projects it’s
going to be billions of dollars um to
develop in fact we just had the the CEO
was in our office last week and and so
we were asking them all these questions
you know it’s they have all these just
incredible drill results that come out I
mean I think they just put one out
yesterday um this thing’s huge I mean
it’s going to be a huge hole in the
ground that they’re going to develop at
some point in time you know they haven’t
put out a resource yet just because they
continue to find mineralization they
haven’t really found the edge of this
thing and so it’s been this kind of back
and forth I mean you know we were
telling them hey you know we it’s great
I mean we love to see all these Real
Results but I think you’re not really
getting the bang for the buck that you
used to when you were putting these
things out a few years ago I think
there’s a lot more interest now people
already agree hey you’ve got a massive
resource how’s it going to be developed
who’s it going to develop it what are
how are all the pieces going to be put
in place you know they have those other
related entities that are around them in
different projects in different stages
so yeah to partially answer your
question our biggest position is one of
those big type of of deposits but lately
we’ve been adding a lot more of just you
know current producers because because
we think that if the price rises from
here and continues and goes up to five
bucks or higher you’re going to see more
uh kind of tangible value creation from
the guys that can capture that and turn
it into cash flow whereas you know the a
rising copper price for some of these
development projects is more of like a a
modeling exercise of you know how how
much should this be worth and you can
look at you know comps or other resource
companies of similar stages or you can
actually kind of you know pencil out a
mine plan and and think of what they’re
going to build uh I think that’s one of
the reasons that um there is a push for
them to release at least an initial
resource estimate later this year is
people want to start doing those numbers
um and and really highlighting the value
that’s been created I think it’s a lot
tougher for people to get their mind
around when it’s still at the early
stage especially sort of traditional
investors which is where you know a lot
of new capital needs to come from you
know it’s funny we consider our self
value almost almost deep value looking
at this stuff but people look at our
port P folios um and they’ll say you
know like what’s your PE Ratio or
something you know half of our companies
don’t even have Revenue I mean let alone
earnings right the earnings are negative
and so you know we have to do different
sort of valuation methodologies
depending on what stage the company’s in
um that’s a good example of it and when
you get these things where incremental
you know additions of resource from the
drill bit aren’t really moving the
needle anymore then I think investors
want to see some you know more on the
corporate development front they want
you to put a marker in the ground look
the trade-off for that company was
always hey we don’t want to release a
resource estimate too soon because we’re
still finding stuff and if we’re going
to give a number to the market let’s
give it the biggest number we can find I
think now though they just have so
much the additional hits that they’re
getting you know I mean people are like
okay we get it you you got a lot of
resource let’s just kind of put a put a
box around it so people can start the
value without having to just really do
back of the envelope type stuff and so
you know it’s encouraging to see that
progressing um you know and we have a
few other compan that are in that stage
but I think today if we’re in an
environment where the price is hey you
know now we’re going to go from we’re
going to get that reating or at least a
start of it to you know call it north of
$5 do if it keeps going um probably the
most immediate beneficiaries are going
to be the producers that are going to
see that increase in cash flow and then
the real question is you know how are
these things being valued based on that
um you know and can we kind of buy a a
handful of these things that we think
will be the biggest uh
beneficiaries M I’d hate to see a PE
ratio of my portfolio as well gr be
pretty pretty gruesome one thing that’s
not spoken about in terms of copper
demand is the amount of power that
Silverstone uh supplies so power needs
copper wire JD with the growth of
Silverstone in this power generation and
Supply industry this is going to be a
big driver of the copper market and
imagine you’re building this Funia
District you’re building this very
complicated project and you think G I
just think somebody could take a bit of
this weight off my shoulders if someone
could just sort out everything power
related for me I wish there was someone
that could do that you’re telling me
there is there is mate Silverstone mate
they are power boom power simple as
simple as act mate if you need to you
need to Power Mate if you want to power
the vun you want to power any mind side
of any scar Silverstein have a solution
whether it’s a green form old School
diesel Jenny’s they tick all the boxes
for power JD get them on site
Silverstone she’s a One-Stop vertically
integrated shop for mining mate they’re
right here in wa they’ve done it with
some of the biggest miners in the
country they’ve got their reputation go
and have a chat with them they will look
after you Silverstone thanks for driving
the copper price up to to tie out the
last commodity I want to speak about is
gold and I want to come at it from a
macro type lens to start with you spoke
about in your quarterly letter about a
few different ratios you look at you
know the the Buffett indicator comparing
the US Stock Market and US GDP another
sort of metric that’s been kicked around
a lot is the US debt to the the nation’s
GDP and tying that in we’ve seen what
appears to be a lot of Central Bank
buying in gold in you know for over a
year now but in particular the last the
last few months have been quite lofty I
noticed the the 13fs you referred to
before that ago and barck I think I saw
were some of your us Holdings in Gold
what’s the thesis with gold some people
come at it from a a real value lens
others from a you know government debt
type lens how do you view
it yeah gold has been a tough one um
especially on the mining side just
because uh they’ve struggled on their
operations you know production has been
declining for the most part and costs
have been rising and so you know even
though the price of gold is hitting
all-time highs lot of these guys are are
are seeing lower margins than they did
you know a few years ago um when gold
price was much lower and so you know
I’ve always struggled with gold just
because uh it’s difficult to handicap
the demand because so much of it is
dependent on those things you just
mentioned you what are central banks
doing what is investor sentiment you
know are guys you know gold bugs going
to the coin store and you know loading
up on on bullion um that sort of stuff
is is really hard to to uh ify and so
I’ve always preferred the Industrial
Metals where it get you know the demand
gets consumed and so it not isn’t just
being moved from kind of one one Vault
to another I think that’s why in the
precious metal space we’ve we’ve tended
a little bit more towards silver I mean
we talked about Adriatic a little bit um
in the past which is one of the ones we
own and you know it’s I guess silver is
their largest component they also have
some gold but we like I guess if I’m
going to be forced to own gold I kind of
like byproduct gold because I want to
have the driver being something that I
can really understand the supply demand
better but yeah we’ve I mean we’ve owned
gold miners for for years for better or
worse um you know I think that uh it
remains to be seen if they can keep
their costs under control because you
don’t get any benefit of a rising price
if your costs are rising faster than it
in fact it hurts you and I think that’s
one of the reasons that you’ve seen the
stocks do so poorly um yeah you know the
we own a couple of those big ones in
kind of our more uh Diversified funds we
don’t I mean you know the problem with
the 13fs is you don’t see a lot of our
intern you don’t see any of our
International stocks they’re the ones
that are tradeing Canada or Australia
because we’re not required to file them
but that’s actually where we’ve done the
best um on the gold side are some of the
more intermediate producers or
developers that have had kind of that
that value creation lever that I’ve
talked about the past like we we own ago
because we own Kirkland lake and we did
very well on Kirkland lake and that was
one where you know they just they had
the grades and they kept finding stuff
and it was you know not just a proxy for
the gold price and an or an imperfect
proxy at that where you got you know the
gold price going up and and their
earnings going down so you know I think
um we have it in our portfolio there is
a there is a chance that some of these
uh gold producers kind of get past their
operational challenges they can keep
their cost in control and especially if
you get an environment where um you know
the gold price keeps Rising uh at at a
pretty fast clip like it’s like it’s
done in the last few months there’s a
chance that you know that heals all
wounds there and and the price goes up
so fast that even their their their
missteps um you know get overlooked but
uh you know we’re happy to own a little
bit for that sort of eventuality but I I
think where the bulk of our portfolio is
positioned is on some of these more kind
of special situation type of commodity
plays where you have these big Supply
demand imbalances and you need the price
to rise in order to fix them and so you
know that was uranium for us um still is
but that in a big way the last several
years and and more recently we’ve
started adding some of these other ones
you know I I would argue that both tin
and copper um the price is too low to
really bring on um enough new Supply to
balance those markets and so you’ve
started to see those prices move in the
last few months I think we’ll continue
to see that you know sort of daily
volatility not withstanding like I said
we don’t really care about um The Daily
swings in these things I think we have a
view that marginal cost is going to
drive or these prices eventually shake
out a lot of times you’ll see it
overshoot that just because um nothing
really moves in a straight line but if
we can find something where we think
that the price has to rise because the
Market’s out of balance and we can we
can find ways to express that view that
are that are kind of cheaply valued on
an absolute basis that’s a that’s a
great combination there and it’s been um
you know I guess we’re not the only ones
that are interested in that we’ve been
doing a lot of calls lately just because
I think there are other people out there
that um are interested in that sort of
idea for generating returns uh they
realize it’s got a long Runway I mean I
think these these sorts of Supply demand
imbalances play out over a multi-year
period And so you know it’s great for us
to kind of identify them do the work
build the positions and then really let
them play out over um over a long time
frame on on Adriatic there Brian
obviously a lot A lot has changed since
you have picked up that position and
they’re really coming into being a
producer and they’ve been rewarded for
that pretty strongly how do you see the
the balance at the moment have you
started selling some of your position
are you still holding on you know we’ve
just we’ve held a pretty um stable core
position there for for several years now
um really I think the question is what
what prices do you expect them to
achieve you know this year they’re going
to ramp up the mind so what we really
want to see there is how does the
production Shake out what do the costs
look like you know is this thing going
to work are they going to run into
challenges and so I think the next few
quarters um it’s really going to be sort
of a show me story like okay you’ve
turned it on you know for the longest
time no one really cared about it it
kind of languished there uh you know I
think and people said hey let’s see what
happens when the mine comes on there
were a few delays and so whenever you
get into that sort of situation I think
people want to see the cash flow hit you
but you know they put out some guidance
a few weeks ago and if they can hit that
you you kind of run them a current price
deck or whatever price you want to see
and um it looks like it’s pretty cheap
given what they’re going to produce all
these different Commodities uh for for a
fairly low cost because it’s a a poly
metallic mine so you know we haven’t
really dialed it up or down too much
we’ve just kind of held this core
position and I think what we’re really
looking for is how does the ramp up
progress and um you know what sort of
prices are they able to achieve here
because like I said given our view of
where um a lot of prices of the products
they produce are going I mean I think it
it trades it’s a very cheap way to get
exposure to that um you know and uh yeah
it’s a I guess the joke there is um you
know they they’re going to produce a lot
of silver silver stocks usually get a
pretty high premium and so you know
should they change their name to
Adriatic silver because maybe they’ll
get a valuation upli you know I think
the big wild card there is that um you
know if I maybe draw a parallel to to to
metal X is metalx already has the cash
and the question was what are they going
to do with it are they going to give it
back you know they did some sort of
questionable transactions um you know
buying some other
equities uh you know they talked about
wanting to do m&a um that’s tough to
handicap right you don’t you don’t if
they go out and do some big splashy
acquisition you don’t know ahead of time
how how to really you know if you want
that or not I think um that’s been the
case also with Adriatic you know their
CEO has kind of been on record saying
they’d like to duplicate this this
process that they’ve done which is
identify a mine and and bring it into
production um and we’ll see what happens
I mean in that case because you don’t
know what that Target is going to be um
you’re really relying more heavily on on
the management to identify those things
and hopefully they can find something
similarly attractive but um you know I
think for us that’s kind of the big the
big things that we’re watching there is
you know how does the Mind ramp up go
and then once this thing starts
generating cash uh what do they do with
it beautiful lovely mate brilliant yarn
we we could go for another hour but I
got to go sort the kids out
Unfortunately today but um and it’s past
5:00 where you are in the world there in
LA so we will let you enjoy your evening
but I appreciate you making the time
Brian it was great to talk about all
things Commodities everything we’re
interested in well well like I said I’m
I’m a big fan of the show uh thank you
guys for having me on you know like I
said we get a lot these invites um don’t
do a lot of them just because not a lot
of the stuff we do changes uh very
frequently but you know maybe once or
twice a year we’ll come on and you know
you guys are one of the few people
talking about tin so I was always
happy we’re we’re very flattered that
someone at your level is uh listening to
us so we really appreciate it mate yeah
look forward to circling back in in a
year or half a year’s time on on all
these Commodities all right sounds good
thanks guys oh jeez that was a riage j I
love talking about I like talking
about that’s the best way to put it
don’t we all bit of copper bit of tin
bit of uranium I love it and all these
you know people in different next of the
woods different views they’ve got
different thesis they’re holding
different stocks it’s fascinating to to
help round out our thesis and you know
make us smarter Maddie M but tell you
what I still don’t know how the you
find all these people JD you’re all over
it if it was up to me I’d be just
talking to you and Trav every day so
mate top top job but it I just love
hearing about how early a lot of these
funds got placed in these like you know
we’ve only been going for a year but
these These funds have been looking at
these thematics in like 2018 and things
like that and really getting in early
and going through times and not
making anything yeah and I really I
really love these these value oriented
guys who came in into it when it was a
contrarian beaten up space you know like
uranium for example five odd years ago
these people that like to invest in the
manga the Buffett sort of style really
really appeals to me and you know I
think it makes for a a great chat that
we can all learn a bit of I like I like
just investing in making it this year so
we’ll see how we go right thanks for
thanks to Brian for coming on thanks to
all the partners we talked about verify
and Silverstone during the episode we
also got get wet Solutions DSi
underground anytime expiration wa water
BS Brooks Airways and krill Odo money
miners
H information contained in this episode
of money of mine is of General nature
only and does not take into account the
objectives financial situation or needs
of any particular person before making
any investment decision you should
consult with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the advice is
to your objectives financial situation
and needs

On the show today we had Brian Laks, co-chief investment officer of Old West, an LA-based investor.

Brian has gone deep into a number of the markets that we love chatting about, and we had a great time talking about uranium, tin, copper, gold, silver, the metals & mining sector broadly and a whole host of companies and projects that fall into these categories.

Thank you to our Podcast Partners:

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GetWet Solutions – Innovative bladder tanks for mobile water storage

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Matt.hall@getwetsolutions.com.au

DSI Underground – Supplier of Ground Support Products to the Mining and Tunnelling industries
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Silverstone – Energy solutions for your business

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kenny@sstone.com.au

K-Drill – Safe, reliable, and productive surface RC drilling
https://www.k-drill.com.au/
ryan@k-drill.com.au

Brooks Airways – Perth’s leading charter flight operators
https://www.brooksairways.com/
ops@brooksairways.com

WA Water Bores – WA’s premier water well drilling company
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CHAPTERS

0:00:00 Brian Laks on Money of Mine
0:01:03 The uranium investment to-date
0:06:39 The gateway drug to uranium
0:12:08 Trading SPUT
0:16:14 Big Uranium contracts to look out for
0:19:26 Discovering tin
0:30:33 Is there another Myanmar in tin
0:34:53 Alphamin vs Metals X?
0:38:38 Copper torque
0:45:14 Choosing between producers, developers & explorers
0:48:59 Investing in big porphyry copper projects
0:54:47 Why is gold running?
1:00:20 Is Adriatic fully valued yet

——————————-

DISCLAIMER

All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only.

The hosts of Money of Mine (MoM) are not financial professionals. MoM and our Contributors are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should consult a licensed financial, legal or tax professional.
MoM doesn’t operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given. MoM strive to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this podcast but we don’t make any representation or warranty that it’s accurate or up to date. Any views expressed by the hosts of MoM are their opinion only and may contain forward looking statements that may not eventuate.

MoM will not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use of information in this podcast.