Gold & Silver Breakout Update + Lessons from Global Financial Crisis – April 24, 2024
ladies and gentlemen welcome back this
is Christopher Aaron it is April 24th
2024 and I want to do something a little
bit different today we’re going to talk
about the gold and silver breakouts that
are occurring now however I want to
share with you some of the lessons that
I learned in the global financial crisis
of 2008 and how those lessons apply to
the breakouts that we’re now seeing in
gold and silver so that’s what we will
cover today make sure to hit the
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here is the legal disclaimer for one
moment now let’s rewind back to the 2008
Global financial crisis what we’re doing
here is looking at the same scale for
all four of these different markets
we’re looking at the S&P 500 US Stock
Market upper left gold bottom left
silver upper right and the gold miners
Index this is the Hui unhedged gold
miners there are some silver miners in
this index as well so it’s a good
representation for the average of the
large cap gold and silver miners here on
the lower right so I want to rewind in
case you did not live through the global
financial crisis if you simply were not
paying attention to the markets back
then or if you’re too young to remember
that I want to let you know that this is
when I really started actively investing
in the markets actually in the mid 2000s
but really leading into 2007 and then I
became very active in 2008 during the
global financial crisis and I took
extensive notes and I want to share some
of that with you here so just to rewind
right here at the peak of the stock
market in 2007 this is when the subprime
crisis really began to break out and I
began to notice this actually in 2005
2006 I remember a lot of my co-workers
at my first job when I graduated college
I graduated college in 2003 and in my
first job 20052 2006 a lot of my
co-workers who were on more or less
entrylevel salaries at the time were
just absolutely obsessed with this idea
that if they just bought a condominium
or a townhouse and waited for three
years that they would become rich that
the townhouse was going to double or
triple in value and that all one had to
do was buy real estate and you would
become rich in just a few years this is
this was the common belief believe it or
not in 204 2005 and 2006 leading up to
the subprime crisis okay so this initial
down move here in 2007 was the sub was
the subprime crisis at the time a lot of
analysts were saying that the subprime
is going to be contained it’s just
related to uh loose lending standards
but it’s not going to impact the general
economy that’s what they were saying
here in
2007 then we had the beginning of the
more severe part of the collapse in the
first part of 2008 this was when Bear
Sterns the large uh bank and hedge fund
went under in March of 2008 it’s when
Fanny May and Freddy Mack went under
it’s when several of the other Banks
started to go bankrupt and the FED had
to step in and bail a lot of them out
and so notice here in March of 2008 this
is exactly when gold peaked now at the
time this peak here in Gold just above
$1,000 per ounce was a new all-time high
you have to remember this at the time no
one alive on planet Earth had ever
witnessed the gold price being higher
than $1,000 per ounce and I remember
this to the day day it was all over the
news people were talking about it some
people were saying hey you know is gold
going to go to 2,000 next is gold going
to go to 5,000 next right no one knew
because this was the highest price ever
recorded at the same time silver hit
this price above $20 per ounce it
touched almost
2150 and remember this was the first
time in 28
years that silver recorded a level above
$20 per ounce you have to go all the way
back to the Year
1980 the last time that silver was above
20 so you better believe this was a key
moment Bear Sterns collaps gold new
alltime high silver back above 20 and
then what happened in the gold miners at
that time is that they were up
13x in 7 years from the lows here in
2001 up to to 520 on the index from 40
to 520 on the index a 13 fold move in
seven years so this is why we invest in
the gold mining companies and the silver
mining companies you can see here as the
price of gold quadrupled from 250 up to
1,000 the miners were up 13 fold okay so
at the time at this exact moment in
history there were many fundamental
analysts out there who were saying that
things are going to get worse that this
be Stern’s collapse was only the tip of
the iceberg that there were more banks
that were going to go under there were
more hedge funds that were going to go
under that the Federal Reserve was going
to bail them out they were going to
print money out of thin air in order to
bail out all these
institutions they said things are going
to get worse the subprime crisis is
going to spread to other parts of the
economy and therefore Buy Gold Silver
and the miners to
protect yourself there were many
fundamental analysts I’m not going to
name their names you can go back and
look you can do a Google search I don’t
want to make any enemies out there but
it’s let’s just say some of the Quasi
famous names out there that you and I
both know who we are talking about
this was their logic at the time things
are going to get worse therefore Buy
Gold Silver and the miners and I want to
now fast forward these charts by only
six months watch
this and let’s record what actually
happened in the global financial crisis
so these fundamental analy were right
about the General stock market the
General stock market fell 54% % from the
peak in late 2007 one year later October
of 2008 that is a
significant
crash however what happened to the price
of gold at the same time from that Peak
above $1,000 per ounce gold fell down to
680 a decline of
35% okay so at least you were better in
Gold than the S&P 500 or General stock
markets however you still l lost money
in the crash then look at what happened
with silver silver fell from above 21 to
almost $8 per ounce it was exactly a
60% decline so if you were listening to
these fundamental analist and they were
correct about the spreading of the
subprime crisis because what happened 6
months later is that Leman Brothers went
under wacovia bank went under Merl Lynch
bank went
under Bank of America had to be bailed
out City Bank had to be bailed out
General Motors had to be bailed out so
they were right on the global financial
crisis but they were wrong on how the
global financial crisis would impact the
markets that they were recommending for
people to buy you lost more money by
quote unquote protecting yourself in
silver than if you had just been sitting
in mainstream stocks
can you believe that and then we want to
talk about the gold miners look at this
in 6 months they fell
72% my goodness okay so these
fundamental analysts once again they
were correct on things getting worse
they were correct on the subprime crisis
spreading but they were totally wrong on
how those series of fundamentals would
actually impact the price of the asset
classes that they were investing in
okay let’s bring up a few more gold and
silver miners here I want to really
Hammer this point home so you see why
this type of analysis is so dangerous
silver Court medals mid-tier silver
Mining Company look at this Global
financial crisis down
91% in 6 months you think think this is
an isolated case new gold
formed in
2005 down
93% in 6 months impact silver a company
that we own today and that I think is
going higher over the next few years
fell in the global financial crisis by
94% in six months are you kidding
me so if you think that you’ve lived
through
volatility over the last 6 12 18 months
that you’ve been involved in the
precious metal sector you haven’t seen
anything those of us who live through
the global financial crisis literally
saw well if we listen to those
fundamental analysts we literally saw
our portfolios Fall by 90 to
98% you think maybe that’s only the
junior miners look at what happened to
the senior this is wheat and precious
metals one of the best Diversified
mining companies or streaming companies
on the face of the planet fell in the
global financial crisis by what
86% in 6 months this was an utter
disaster if you listen to those people
who were correct on the global financial
crisis but they were diametrically wrong
on how it would play out on the assets
that were supposed to protect them okay
you cannot trust the fundamental
analysts to get the actual outcome
correct that is the
takeaway now in late
2008 I found myself in a very peculiar
situation where I was actually able to
buy shares of Wheat and precious metals
I kid you not I bought some shares not
all my shares I’m not claiming to have
timed the exact bottom perfectly with
100% but I bought a significant chunk of
my shares at
$22.75 I have the transaction
recorded back in the crash of
2008 why how did I manage to do that I
will tell you how I was stationed in
Afghanistan with the military in the
crash of 2008 this was my daily life
here’s me
with a bunker behind me and the barracks
with the military where I lived and
slept in the same Barracks with the
soldiers here’s me near the runway where
I worked next to the military jets
okay I was in Afghanistan at the peak of
the global financial crisis in 2008 and
I literally had nowhere that I could
spend the money that I was that I was
earning there it was not possible
because there was nothing to do there
other than to work and go to the gym and
then go to sleep and do that every day
for 12 hours a day for 6 months straight
and so I just decided you know what I’m
going to start buying some of these
companies that have crashed in the
global financial crisis and I’m going to
hope for the best I said if the world’s
about to end because these companies
have fallen by 90 or
95% well then you know we’re all toast
so I might as well try to see if things
are going to correct themselves
let’s fast forward this chart by the
next two years there was that 86%
decline here’s where I was buying some
shares when I was literally stationed in
the
war the global war on terror and here’s
what ended up happening over the next
two years this is how I made my first
small fortune in the Years following the
global financial crisis wheat and
precious metals Rose by
1,845 per. and I owned of course some
miners that didn’t do as well as wheat
and precious metals but I also owned
some that did even better I am not
joking you so that’s how I made the
first fortune that I’ve ever made in my
life at least for myself at the
time uh coming back to the United States
in 2009
now I said to myself at that time that I
was never going to trust the fundamental
analysts again this is the moral of of
my story because what if I hadn’t been
so fortunate as to have volunteered to
go overseas to
Afghanistan to have this stable job and
to have the opportunity to buy these
gold and silver miners that had fallen
by 90 or 95% % what if I hadn’t had that
opportunity what if I had been one of
the unfortunate people that had been
laid off during the global financial
crisis or what if I had been so
unfortunate to work for one of those
many banks that went under such as
wacovia Bank of
America City bank Wells Fargo all the
ones that had to be bailed out right
what if I didn’t have the opportunity to
take advantage of those stocks that
crashed and then rose again after the
crash I told myself that I would never
trust these fundamental base analysts
ever again and here are the reasons
why fundamentals let’s remember what are
fundamentals they are the causes for why
markets move in a certain
direction however there are infinite
fundamentals yes I am not exaggerating
there are infinite fundamentals because
the fundamentals are everything that
every man woman and child who has ever
bought or sold or thought about buying
or thought about selling a specific
asset class have ever thought in their
entire lives leading them up to the
point where they make a certain decision
and the fundamentals are all of the
world events that have ever transpired
in the history of planet Earth to cause
a certain asset to cause a certain
commodity to have a certain level of
Supply or a certain level of demand so
we have to literally rewind to the
beginning of planet Earth and the
beginning of the universe as we know it
in order to count all of the
fundamentals that impacts the gold price
the silver price or the price of any
other asset there are and I am not
exaggerating infinite fundamentals
impacting the
market if you’re a student of
mathematics you will know that any
number divided by Infinity is equal to
zero
therefore forecasts that are based on
any number of fundamental analysis
divided by the total number of
fundamentals have zero predictive
capacity not some predictive capacity
not a little bit of predictive capacity
zero predictive
capacity there is zero benefit to
studying the fundamentals if one wants
to be correct on theice
if one wants to have discussions and
debates and one wants to go on
interviews and CNBC on the TV and sound
like they know what they’re talking
about then studying the fundamentals can
have a value to it but if you actually
want to be able to predict the
price which is the most important thing
because as we saw in that previous
example ignoring the price can lead to
90 to 95% drawdowns
even in the quote unquote safety assets
of the precious
metals if we want to ignore the price
then go ahead study the
fundamentals for the rest of one’s days
but I told myself I would never do that
myself however every buy or sell
decision impacts the
price the only place where all of the
fundamentals converge is therefore for
the price the price of the asset is the
single place in space and time where all
of the decisions all of the factors
coming into a market
converge and therefore by studying the
price we can observe the sum of all the
fundamentals at the same moment in time
this is the most critical point to
understand about the type of analysis
that I do price analysis as we call it
or technical analysis is another term
for it by studying the price we can
observe all the fundamentals however if
we choose to cherry pick 1 2 5 10 100 or
even a thousand
fundamentals even though all of those
fundamentals may be
correct the sum of that is divided by
infinity and there has zero predictive
capacity we must study the
price and so when we bring up a price
chart which is what we do here at iold
advisor and we study the trends in price
and we can see that for one two five or
infinite
reasons sellers of gold are appearing
along a certain trend
when we look at the generational time
scale we must absolutely pay attention
to where those sellers are emerging
whether they are legitimate sellers
whether they are Traders whether they
are manipulators whether they are
central banks whether they are hedge
funds whether they are your neighbor
buying or selling gold coins all of them
converge right here right at the price
this is it the price
analysis is so simple that most people
will not believe it they will choose to
not believe it they will choose to spend
their entire lives chasing down rabbit
holes of fundamentals that have zero
predictive capacity to impact what they
in fact most want to know which is what
is going to happen to the
price price analysis is so powerful
that it will change lives it has changed
my life and if you continue to study it
with us price analysis will change your
life it is the only place where all of
the
fundamentals converge and so right now
where all of the fundamentals converge
is it is no coincidence that gold is
struggling here to get above 2400 2400
we can see is this 50-year
resistance line we do have reason to
believe that eventually gold will be
going higher however not right now the
first thing that’s going to happen is a
pullback and the price
analysis the simplest
explanation to borrow from aam’s
Razor is what shows us that is usually
the correct one let’s remember this the
simplest
explanation usually ends up being
correct if you would like to study price
analysis with us every single week not
just looking at what to expect over the
generational time scale but what to
expect for the rest of this week what to
expect next week what to expect next
month not only in the gold price but
also in the silver price also in Bitcoin
also in the stock Market also in the
currencies and also in other Commodities
you should join us in Precious Metals
intelligence plus this is the sum of
my life’s work related to price analysis
for precious metals and related markets
at this time I developed this service
because of how badly I was hurt during
the global financial crisis because I
listened to fundamental analysts and
they were complet completely wrong in
the global financial crisis they’re
going to be completely wrong again when
gold forms its next top we must study
the price remember not only do we cover
the physical medals themselves we also
send you flash updates when we make a
buy or sell decision based on the price
in any minor or any asset class that we
are investing in here that goes right to
your email
price
analysis if you are a higher net worth
investor you have to know that we take
this price analysis we then put it
onto specific mining companies that we
are investing in here myself and my
colleagues and then we go and we
negotiate terms with the mining
companies so that we can get more
favorable terms when we buy shares so
often times we buy shares at a 15 or a
20% discount compared to how you can buy
the shares in the open market and then
we also receive free yes free
warrants with every single investment
that we make and the warrants get us
nearly twice the upside compared to
buying those same companies in the open
market so that’s for higher net worth
investors remember you get a free
subscription to our Flagship precious
metals intelligence plus if you join us
in our Elite service if you would like
to apply price
analysis to your
situation book a consultation on our
website we sit down I speak with you
oneon-one just how we’re speaking today
except I listen to you I take all your
information and I give you from a
researched independent perspective what
would I do if I was in your situation
given everything going on in your unique
situation so you can book that right
there on the
website guys sooner or later you will
come to the point in your investment
career where you realize that you cannot
trust the fundamental-based
analyst and it will either
happen because you see the wisdom in
this type of philosophy or it will
happen once you experience a catastrophe
in your Investment Portfolio where you
lose 90 to
95% of your net worth in that portfolio
because you have chosen to listen to the
fundamental based analysts who do not
pay attention to the most important
thing which is actually the
price join us in studying the price of
gold silver and the gold and silver
miners is
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