Gold & Silver Breakout Update + Lessons from Global Financial Crisis – April 24, 2024

    ladies and gentlemen welcome back this
    is Christopher Aaron it is April 24th
    2024 and I want to do something a little
    bit different today we’re going to talk
    about the gold and silver breakouts that
    are occurring now however I want to
    share with you some of the lessons that
    I learned in the global financial crisis
    of 2008 and how those lessons apply to
    the breakouts that we’re now seeing in
    gold and silver so that’s what we will
    cover today make sure to hit the
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    here is the legal disclaimer for one
    moment now let’s rewind back to the 2008
    Global financial crisis what we’re doing
    here is looking at the same scale for
    all four of these different markets
    we’re looking at the S&P 500 US Stock
    Market upper left gold bottom left
    silver upper right and the gold miners
    Index this is the Hui unhedged gold
    miners there are some silver miners in
    this index as well so it’s a good
    representation for the average of the
    large cap gold and silver miners here on
    the lower right so I want to rewind in
    case you did not live through the global
    financial crisis if you simply were not
    paying attention to the markets back
    then or if you’re too young to remember
    that I want to let you know that this is
    when I really started actively investing
    in the markets actually in the mid 2000s
    but really leading into 2007 and then I
    became very active in 2008 during the
    global financial crisis and I took
    extensive notes and I want to share some
    of that with you here so just to rewind
    right here at the peak of the stock
    market in 2007 this is when the subprime
    crisis really began to break out and I
    began to notice this actually in 2005
    2006 I remember a lot of my co-workers
    at my first job when I graduated college
    I graduated college in 2003 and in my
    first job 20052 2006 a lot of my
    co-workers who were on more or less
    entrylevel salaries at the time were
    just absolutely obsessed with this idea
    that if they just bought a condominium
    or a townhouse and waited for three
    years that they would become rich that
    the townhouse was going to double or
    triple in value and that all one had to
    do was buy real estate and you would
    become rich in just a few years this is
    this was the common belief believe it or
    not in 204 2005 and 2006 leading up to
    the subprime crisis okay so this initial
    down move here in 2007 was the sub was
    the subprime crisis at the time a lot of
    analysts were saying that the subprime
    is going to be contained it’s just
    related to uh loose lending standards
    but it’s not going to impact the general
    economy that’s what they were saying
    here in
    2007 then we had the beginning of the
    more severe part of the collapse in the
    first part of 2008 this was when Bear
    Sterns the large uh bank and hedge fund
    went under in March of 2008 it’s when
    Fanny May and Freddy Mack went under
    it’s when several of the other Banks
    started to go bankrupt and the FED had
    to step in and bail a lot of them out
    and so notice here in March of 2008 this
    is exactly when gold peaked now at the
    time this peak here in Gold just above
    $1,000 per ounce was a new all-time high
    you have to remember this at the time no
    one alive on planet Earth had ever
    witnessed the gold price being higher
    than $1,000 per ounce and I remember
    this to the day day it was all over the
    news people were talking about it some
    people were saying hey you know is gold
    going to go to 2,000 next is gold going
    to go to 5,000 next right no one knew
    because this was the highest price ever
    recorded at the same time silver hit
    this price above $20 per ounce it
    touched almost
    2150 and remember this was the first
    time in 28
    years that silver recorded a level above
    $20 per ounce you have to go all the way
    back to the Year
    1980 the last time that silver was above
    20 so you better believe this was a key
    moment Bear Sterns collaps gold new
    alltime high silver back above 20 and
    then what happened in the gold miners at
    that time is that they were up
    13x in 7 years from the lows here in
    2001 up to to 520 on the index from 40
    to 520 on the index a 13 fold move in
    seven years so this is why we invest in
    the gold mining companies and the silver
    mining companies you can see here as the
    price of gold quadrupled from 250 up to
    1,000 the miners were up 13 fold okay so
    at the time at this exact moment in
    history there were many fundamental
    analysts out there who were saying that
    things are going to get worse that this
    be Stern’s collapse was only the tip of
    the iceberg that there were more banks
    that were going to go under there were
    more hedge funds that were going to go
    under that the Federal Reserve was going
    to bail them out they were going to
    print money out of thin air in order to
    bail out all these
    institutions they said things are going
    to get worse the subprime crisis is
    going to spread to other parts of the
    economy and therefore Buy Gold Silver
    and the miners to
    protect yourself there were many
    fundamental analysts I’m not going to
    name their names you can go back and
    look you can do a Google search I don’t
    want to make any enemies out there but
    it’s let’s just say some of the Quasi
    famous names out there that you and I
    both know who we are talking about
    this was their logic at the time things
    are going to get worse therefore Buy
    Gold Silver and the miners and I want to
    now fast forward these charts by only
    six months watch
    this and let’s record what actually
    happened in the global financial crisis
    so these fundamental analy were right
    about the General stock market the
    General stock market fell 54% % from the
    peak in late 2007 one year later October
    of 2008 that is a
    significant
    crash however what happened to the price
    of gold at the same time from that Peak
    above $1,000 per ounce gold fell down to
    680 a decline of
    35% okay so at least you were better in
    Gold than the S&P 500 or General stock
    markets however you still l lost money
    in the crash then look at what happened
    with silver silver fell from above 21 to
    almost $8 per ounce it was exactly a
    60% decline so if you were listening to
    these fundamental analist and they were
    correct about the spreading of the
    subprime crisis because what happened 6
    months later is that Leman Brothers went
    under wacovia bank went under Merl Lynch
    bank went
    under Bank of America had to be bailed
    out City Bank had to be bailed out
    General Motors had to be bailed out so
    they were right on the global financial
    crisis but they were wrong on how the
    global financial crisis would impact the
    markets that they were recommending for
    people to buy you lost more money by
    quote unquote protecting yourself in
    silver than if you had just been sitting
    in mainstream stocks
    can you believe that and then we want to
    talk about the gold miners look at this
    in 6 months they fell
    72% my goodness okay so these
    fundamental analysts once again they
    were correct on things getting worse
    they were correct on the subprime crisis
    spreading but they were totally wrong on
    how those series of fundamentals would
    actually impact the price of the asset
    classes that they were investing in
    okay let’s bring up a few more gold and
    silver miners here I want to really
    Hammer this point home so you see why
    this type of analysis is so dangerous
    silver Court medals mid-tier silver
    Mining Company look at this Global
    financial crisis down
    91% in 6 months you think think this is
    an isolated case new gold
    formed in
    2005 down
    93% in 6 months impact silver a company
    that we own today and that I think is
    going higher over the next few years
    fell in the global financial crisis by
    94% in six months are you kidding
    me so if you think that you’ve lived
    through
    volatility over the last 6 12 18 months
    that you’ve been involved in the
    precious metal sector you haven’t seen
    anything those of us who live through
    the global financial crisis literally
    saw well if we listen to those
    fundamental analysts we literally saw
    our portfolios Fall by 90 to
    98% you think maybe that’s only the
    junior miners look at what happened to
    the senior this is wheat and precious
    metals one of the best Diversified
    mining companies or streaming companies
    on the face of the planet fell in the
    global financial crisis by what
    86% in 6 months this was an utter
    disaster if you listen to those people
    who were correct on the global financial
    crisis but they were diametrically wrong
    on how it would play out on the assets
    that were supposed to protect them okay
    you cannot trust the fundamental
    analysts to get the actual outcome
    correct that is the
    takeaway now in late
    2008 I found myself in a very peculiar
    situation where I was actually able to
    buy shares of Wheat and precious metals
    I kid you not I bought some shares not
    all my shares I’m not claiming to have
    timed the exact bottom perfectly with
    100% but I bought a significant chunk of
    my shares at
    $22.75 I have the transaction
    recorded back in the crash of
    2008 why how did I manage to do that I
    will tell you how I was stationed in
    Afghanistan with the military in the
    crash of 2008 this was my daily life
    here’s me
    with a bunker behind me and the barracks
    with the military where I lived and
    slept in the same Barracks with the
    soldiers here’s me near the runway where
    I worked next to the military jets
    okay I was in Afghanistan at the peak of
    the global financial crisis in 2008 and
    I literally had nowhere that I could
    spend the money that I was that I was
    earning there it was not possible
    because there was nothing to do there
    other than to work and go to the gym and
    then go to sleep and do that every day
    for 12 hours a day for 6 months straight
    and so I just decided you know what I’m
    going to start buying some of these
    companies that have crashed in the
    global financial crisis and I’m going to
    hope for the best I said if the world’s
    about to end because these companies
    have fallen by 90 or
    95% well then you know we’re all toast
    so I might as well try to see if things
    are going to correct themselves
    let’s fast forward this chart by the
    next two years there was that 86%
    decline here’s where I was buying some
    shares when I was literally stationed in
    the
    war the global war on terror and here’s
    what ended up happening over the next
    two years this is how I made my first
    small fortune in the Years following the
    global financial crisis wheat and
    precious metals Rose by
    1,845 per. and I owned of course some
    miners that didn’t do as well as wheat
    and precious metals but I also owned
    some that did even better I am not
    joking you so that’s how I made the
    first fortune that I’ve ever made in my
    life at least for myself at the
    time uh coming back to the United States
    in 2009
    now I said to myself at that time that I
    was never going to trust the fundamental
    analysts again this is the moral of of
    my story because what if I hadn’t been
    so fortunate as to have volunteered to
    go overseas to
    Afghanistan to have this stable job and
    to have the opportunity to buy these
    gold and silver miners that had fallen
    by 90 or 95% % what if I hadn’t had that
    opportunity what if I had been one of
    the unfortunate people that had been
    laid off during the global financial
    crisis or what if I had been so
    unfortunate to work for one of those
    many banks that went under such as
    wacovia Bank of
    America City bank Wells Fargo all the
    ones that had to be bailed out right
    what if I didn’t have the opportunity to
    take advantage of those stocks that
    crashed and then rose again after the
    crash I told myself that I would never
    trust these fundamental base analysts
    ever again and here are the reasons
    why fundamentals let’s remember what are
    fundamentals they are the causes for why
    markets move in a certain
    direction however there are infinite
    fundamentals yes I am not exaggerating
    there are infinite fundamentals because
    the fundamentals are everything that
    every man woman and child who has ever
    bought or sold or thought about buying
    or thought about selling a specific
    asset class have ever thought in their
    entire lives leading them up to the
    point where they make a certain decision
    and the fundamentals are all of the
    world events that have ever transpired
    in the history of planet Earth to cause
    a certain asset to cause a certain
    commodity to have a certain level of
    Supply or a certain level of demand so
    we have to literally rewind to the
    beginning of planet Earth and the
    beginning of the universe as we know it
    in order to count all of the
    fundamentals that impacts the gold price
    the silver price or the price of any
    other asset there are and I am not
    exaggerating infinite fundamentals
    impacting the
    market if you’re a student of
    mathematics you will know that any
    number divided by Infinity is equal to
    zero
    therefore forecasts that are based on
    any number of fundamental analysis
    divided by the total number of
    fundamentals have zero predictive
    capacity not some predictive capacity
    not a little bit of predictive capacity
    zero predictive
    capacity there is zero benefit to
    studying the fundamentals if one wants
    to be correct on theice
    if one wants to have discussions and
    debates and one wants to go on
    interviews and CNBC on the TV and sound
    like they know what they’re talking
    about then studying the fundamentals can
    have a value to it but if you actually
    want to be able to predict the
    price which is the most important thing
    because as we saw in that previous
    example ignoring the price can lead to
    90 to 95% drawdowns
    even in the quote unquote safety assets
    of the precious
    metals if we want to ignore the price
    then go ahead study the
    fundamentals for the rest of one’s days
    but I told myself I would never do that
    myself however every buy or sell
    decision impacts the
    price the only place where all of the
    fundamentals converge is therefore for
    the price the price of the asset is the
    single place in space and time where all
    of the decisions all of the factors
    coming into a market
    converge and therefore by studying the
    price we can observe the sum of all the
    fundamentals at the same moment in time
    this is the most critical point to
    understand about the type of analysis
    that I do price analysis as we call it
    or technical analysis is another term
    for it by studying the price we can
    observe all the fundamentals however if
    we choose to cherry pick 1 2 5 10 100 or
    even a thousand
    fundamentals even though all of those
    fundamentals may be
    correct the sum of that is divided by
    infinity and there has zero predictive
    capacity we must study the
    price and so when we bring up a price
    chart which is what we do here at iold
    advisor and we study the trends in price
    and we can see that for one two five or
    infinite
    reasons sellers of gold are appearing
    along a certain trend
    when we look at the generational time
    scale we must absolutely pay attention
    to where those sellers are emerging
    whether they are legitimate sellers
    whether they are Traders whether they
    are manipulators whether they are
    central banks whether they are hedge
    funds whether they are your neighbor
    buying or selling gold coins all of them
    converge right here right at the price
    this is it the price
    analysis is so simple that most people
    will not believe it they will choose to
    not believe it they will choose to spend
    their entire lives chasing down rabbit
    holes of fundamentals that have zero
    predictive capacity to impact what they
    in fact most want to know which is what
    is going to happen to the
    price price analysis is so powerful
    that it will change lives it has changed
    my life and if you continue to study it
    with us price analysis will change your
    life it is the only place where all of
    the
    fundamentals converge and so right now
    where all of the fundamentals converge
    is it is no coincidence that gold is
    struggling here to get above 2400 2400
    we can see is this 50-year
    resistance line we do have reason to
    believe that eventually gold will be
    going higher however not right now the
    first thing that’s going to happen is a
    pullback and the price
    analysis the simplest
    explanation to borrow from aam’s
    Razor is what shows us that is usually
    the correct one let’s remember this the
    simplest
    explanation usually ends up being
    correct if you would like to study price
    analysis with us every single week not
    just looking at what to expect over the
    generational time scale but what to
    expect for the rest of this week what to
    expect next week what to expect next
    month not only in the gold price but
    also in the silver price also in Bitcoin
    also in the stock Market also in the
    currencies and also in other Commodities
    you should join us in Precious Metals
    intelligence plus this is the sum of
    my life’s work related to price analysis
    for precious metals and related markets
    at this time I developed this service
    because of how badly I was hurt during
    the global financial crisis because I
    listened to fundamental analysts and
    they were complet completely wrong in
    the global financial crisis they’re
    going to be completely wrong again when
    gold forms its next top we must study
    the price remember not only do we cover
    the physical medals themselves we also
    send you flash updates when we make a
    buy or sell decision based on the price
    in any minor or any asset class that we
    are investing in here that goes right to
    your email
    price
    analysis if you are a higher net worth
    investor you have to know that we take
    this price analysis we then put it
    onto specific mining companies that we
    are investing in here myself and my
    colleagues and then we go and we
    negotiate terms with the mining
    companies so that we can get more
    favorable terms when we buy shares so
    often times we buy shares at a 15 or a
    20% discount compared to how you can buy
    the shares in the open market and then
    we also receive free yes free
    warrants with every single investment
    that we make and the warrants get us
    nearly twice the upside compared to
    buying those same companies in the open
    market so that’s for higher net worth
    investors remember you get a free
    subscription to our Flagship precious
    metals intelligence plus if you join us
    in our Elite service if you would like
    to apply price
    analysis to your
    situation book a consultation on our
    website we sit down I speak with you
    oneon-one just how we’re speaking today
    except I listen to you I take all your
    information and I give you from a
    researched independent perspective what
    would I do if I was in your situation
    given everything going on in your unique
    situation so you can book that right
    there on the
    website guys sooner or later you will
    come to the point in your investment
    career where you realize that you cannot
    trust the fundamental-based
    analyst and it will either
    happen because you see the wisdom in
    this type of philosophy or it will
    happen once you experience a catastrophe
    in your Investment Portfolio where you
    lose 90 to
    95% of your net worth in that portfolio
    because you have chosen to listen to the
    fundamental based analysts who do not
    pay attention to the most important
    thing which is actually the
    price join us in studying the price of
    gold silver and the gold and silver
    miners is

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