A Massive Bitcoin Crash Is Coming | Peter Schiff

A Massive Bitcoin Crash Is Coming | Peter Schiff

gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold
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bracelet I love gold so I’m both Pro
bitcoiner Bitcoin Bitcoin has Bitcoin
and Bitcoin and Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin
Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin is Bitcoin I
mean philosophically we’re aligned
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Bitcoin gold Bitcoin Bitcoin gold
Bitcoin bcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin gold
Bitcoin welcoming the day when you guys
you know finally come back home to to
real gold Peter shiff is one of the most
outspoken critics against Bitcoin on
planet Earth and certainly on the
platform X where he engagement Farms the
Bitcoin audience effectively but it’s my
belief that 99% of the beliefs of gold
bugs and bitcoiners are exactly the same
we just stumble at the Finish Line
deciding which asset is superior and
which one is the better hedge against
the insanity that’s coming this was an
incredible conversation with Peter
Schiff I look forward to having more of
them in the future and seeing who’s
right and who’s
wrong that’s
[Music]
doe are you Pro or Con on bitcoin I’m a
pro bitcoiner I mean this is effectively
a Bitcoin podcast but here I guess we
can start and we can just talk about it
that work all right all right I just
don’t know what what all you Bitcoin
podcasters are going to do after Bitcoin
yeah let’s talk about it I wouldn’t say
I’m only a Bitcoin podcaster so I think
that I will manage to survive no matter
what happens here I’ve long been of the
position that bitcoiners and gold bugs
actually have a lot more in common then
we would admit probably 99% of our
beliefs are the same and it’s the 1% we
stumble as to which is the asset to
protect us from the very same problems
so I’d rather focus on what those
problems are and why you feel so
passionately passionately about gold
than to argue about the 1% part which is
the Bitcoin so maybe we can start with
discussing where we are from a
macroeconomic perspective and why you
think people need gold now more than
ever yeah I mean I would agree probably
you know the hardcore bitcoiners you
know the people that have been in it for
a long time I mean not ones that are
buying the ETFs right now but the people
who have been there uh maybe not from
the very beginning but they’ve been
there you know uh for years and years
and they’re there for the philosophical
reasons they they you know they they’re
free market libertarian they understand
uh these macro issues yeah I mean I
think there’s a lot of common ground
there but I think that a lot of people
who have bought Bitcoin over the last
few years you know really are not that
into the macro I mean they kind of just
bought it they it was going up um and
they kind of jumped on the bandwagon and
so there’s a lot of people that own
Bitcoin you know it’s not really about
about the fundamentals it’s hey this is
a new thing it’s going up everybody says
it’s going higher I want to get in on it
or the fomo stuff so you have a lot of
those those people that are that are in
uh in crypto now um but getting to the
fundamentals of why I tell people that
they should own gold and again I don’t
tell people to only own gold or I don’t
even you know consider gold an
investment I consider it an alternative
form of savings uh if you don’t want to
invest some of your money if you don’t
want to buy stocks if you don’t want to
buy real estate if you want some dry
powder where do you keep it now you know
most people would keep it in dollars or
Euros or Pounds you know depending on
you know where they live uh but I think
that you’re better off keeping it in
Gold I think that gold is going to do a
much better job of retaining its
purchasing power over time than any of
those Fiat currencies even if you earn
interest on them I don’t think the
interest that you earn in the bank will
offset the purchasing power that you
lose to inflation uh so if you have
long-term savings you know the longer
you’re saving the more you’re going to
lose unless you save in gold and I also
think you could you could save in silver
although I actually look at gold now
given the fact that I think it’s so
underpriced that there is an investment
element to it because I think the market
is not accurately pricing gold I think
gold should be much higher in price
right now than it is and so to the
extent that we close that Gap that would
be an investment type return uh much
more than you would normally expect to
see on an annual basis from gold if it
was properly priced and and the reason I
think that it’s underpriced and it’s
been underpriced for a while is that
investors don’t really perceive the
problem correctly they don’t realize how
much inflation there’s going to be they
they have much too much confidence in
central banks the FED in particular to
control inflation they don’t really
appreciate the the credit you know the
Sovereign credit uh crisis that’s coming
and the amount of inflation that is
going to be created
in order to bail everybody out whether
it’s governments or bank depositors or
the whole financial system so I think
that if gold were to accurately reflect
that reality the price would be much
higher so in a sense you know it is like
an investment at this point because
you’re getting it so cheap uh but when I
think about Investments related to Gold
I generally think about gold mining
stocks which haven’t been the greatest
investment uh over the last 10 years or
so but I think that they’re going to
perform much better over the next 10
years I think they’re undervalued uh and
they’re more of an investment because
they’re operating businesses they own
gold in the ground they extract it they
sell it they generate income they pay
dividends and I think if I’m right about
what’s going to happen to Gold I think
the price of gold is going to rise much
faster than the cost of mining it which
hasn’t been the case for the past decade
which has been the problem but if we
start to see a a a much bigger rise in
gold prices as the world start starts to
um you know perceive these problems uh
to a greater degree uh that’s going to
be great for these gold gold companies
and so I think their earnings will go up
their dividends will go up and that’ll
drive the share prices much higher
crypto investors in the United States
face some major challenges one of them
is that there’s almost no way to get
exposure to the asset class inside of
your traditional investment vehicles the
other thing is the taxes they are
absolutely atrocious what if I told you
there was a way to solve both of these
problems well there is and it’s with a
self-directed IRA from I trust Capital
guys not only can you open a new
self-directed IRA and fund it with the
limits each year but you can actually
convert over from your 401k your Roth
IRA any other Ira that you already have
and you can do that taxfree just
transferring over the balance and then
you can go to cash buy as much Bitcoin
you want and not pay taxes when you sell
it you absolutely have to try this if
you are in the United States use the
link down below it’s bit. lit trusts
Scott that’s bit.
litr
us- T you have to try this now and to my
point at the beginning you sound like a
bitcoiner just saying gold instead of
Bitcoin so I think the only disagreement
there is which asset but that could be a
speech from Michael sailor by replacing
the word gold with Bitcoin so I just
want to say you know we we are not so
different I want to reiterate that I
think yeah there the problem is I can’t
get my arms around
Bitcoin as a
legitimate replacement for gold uh as
either a store of value or as a safe
haven uh so I think that people who are
buying it are are are are just taking a
big risk I me I think there’s more risk
in Bitcoin uh you know than your typical
you know Tech stock that has no
earnings um you know you’re not you’re
not you’re not buying Bitcoin because it
has the same properties as gold it
doesn’t have anything in common with
gold mean gold is a physical commodity
it is a metal a precious metal it’s the
most useful metal on the periodic table
uh and the qualities that that gold has
as a metal don’t uh deteriorate over
time so that if I have an ounce of gold
today uh that ounce of gold can do the
same exact things in a 100 years or a
thousand years as it can today and and
so it’s an ideal store of value because
that value doesn’t Decay I mean that’s
not true with just about every other
commodity uh you know they have a shelf
life you just can’t hold it forever uh
but gold you can and the other thing
about gold is it can be reused I mean no
matter how many times you use it you
could just melt it back down I mean you
could get gold out of the computer chips
uh that they can extract it matter right
I mean I’ve been wearing this gold
bracelet you know that I got uh from
Mane I mean it’s you know it’s if I got
tired of wearing it I can melt it down
if or I can sell it to somebody my wife
was wearing my gold bracelet from when I
was 13 in 1989 the other day gold has
those properties Bitcoin doesn’t have
any of those properties Bitcoin doesn’t
have any actual use there’s nothing you
can do with your Bitcoin uh just you
know so there’s no there’s no um value
there that that you could store because
you can’t do anything with it today so
you won’t be able to do anything with it
a 100 years from now yeah you can sell
your Bitcoin to somebody but that’s
totally different just because somebody
is willing to buy Bitcoin doesn’t mean
that Bitcoin has any underlying uh value
it just means that somebody wants to buy
it when you when you own Bitcoin you’re
just making a bet that in the future
somebody else is going to want to buy
Bitcoin even though there’s nothing that
you can do with it I’m not willing to
make that bet with my store value my
safe haven I I know that there’s always
going to be a use for gold no matter
what I mean it’s been used for thousands
of years and they’re probably going to
come up with more ways to use gold as we
you know as we explore and develop new
technologies uh there may be more
applications for gold in the future uh
than there are today and so when you own
the gold you know you own something that
people are going to need and they’re
going to pay for it nobody necessarily
needs Bitcoin and and people may not be
willing to pay anything for Bitcoin in
in the future so uh know it’s a very
different asset I mean it even trades I
think it’s more negatively correlated
with gold uh when I look at the markets
Bitcoin and gold are more likely to go
in the opposite direction than the same
direction certainly you know from a safe
haven if you look at what happened to
bitcoin last week when Israel attacked
Iran and initially the markets were
afraid oh my God what does this mean and
the S&P futures went down one one and a
half percent right away Bitcoin went
down 6% there’s a clear explanation for
that so went down even more gold went up
one and a half percent so ve very
different types of assets and and so I I
just don’t look at them as substitutes I
mean I to the extent that you wanted to
buy some Bitcoin you know you could say
well I’m gonna reduce my you know I I’ll
put a little bit less money in
technology stocks and put some into
Bitcoin but I I I think it’s not even
really an investment I think it’s more
of a gamble so I I think you know the
the way you would get into Bitcoin is
reduce the money that you were going to
bet on sports or go to casinos or buy
lottery tickets take that money and buy
Bitcoin you know but don’t take your
investment money and gamble on on on
bitcoin I actually agree with everything
that you said about gold once again we
stop necessarily at Bitcoin if you were
describing meme coins uh I would
certainly agree with you once we sort of
get Beyond Bitcoin well what’s the
difference between Bitcoin and another
coin well Bitcoin was the I I often say
Bitcoin was the first meme coin and I
can tell you that I’m actually a
recovering Bitcoin maximalist myself who
used to pray at the altar of Satoshi and
I think I’m much more pragmatic than I
once was and I agree 100% that the bulk
of investment quote unquote in Bitcoin
has been speculation but I think that
that’s the natural path of a nent asset
to a store of value but I agree with you
that it should not be money coming out
of gold going into Bitcoin and I can see
why that would be trigger ing the idea
I’ve long believed that Bitcoin is
Bitcoin it’s not a tech stock it’s not
gold it’s its own asset class For Better
or For Worse and it trades 247 365 so
every time on a Saturday that there’s
going to be a global conflict or fear in
the market and people can’t sell the
equities that are only on sale 35 hours
a week they’re going to go to the most
liquid asset that’s available to sell
and they are going to sell their Bitcoin
that’s factual right but I on Thursday
night last week when all the markets
were open they didn’t they they sold
Bitcoin more aggressively than they sold
stocks I mean you so that you can’t make
that excuse you know on Thursday the way
people were making it on Saturday uh
Bitcoin is a risk asset uh and and that
and it’s riskier uh than than stocks
it’s not a substitute for gold which you
would consider a a safe haven uh type of
asset I actually I actually hate the
digital gold comparison I mean I think
that there are similar properties to a
degree but that also implies that they
would have correlated price action as
you said before and they don’t and
Bitcoin largely is uncorrelated to tech
stocks as well over a longer time frame
it just trades on its own because it’s a
nent small Market that can be easily
moved by large players I I don’t think
anyone can disagree with that from my
observation though I do think it is you
know AI stocks moving up or some of the
you know the mem stop type names uh then
Bitcoin tends to go up there it’s more
of the animal spirits the speculation a
liquidity event uh you know cheap money
is coming in and chasing things and for
now some of that money has been going
into Bitcoin but the question is for how
much longer is that going to be the case
you know I I’ve been arguing that I
think uh that the the ETFs are are going
to be a big problem for Bitcoin you know
it’s it’s a situation of be careful what
you wish for uh because for years and
years and years the speculation of ETFs
was was was was driving a lot of Bitcoin
demand because people wanted to be in
Bitcoin when the ETFs were there and you
know we finally got the ETFs and I was
actually surprised by the amount of
money that came in I I did not expect uh
them to be as well received as they were
and and so that pushed Bitcoin up you
know even more it wasn’t like just buy
the rumor sell the fact I mean there was
an initial selloff after the ETFs were
launch 49 to 40 a bunch of money came in
but again I think the money that’s in
these ETFs is not you know your Bitcoin
Maxi type guys I think it’s more
traditional uh people investors who took
a shot at Bitcoin I mean they I mean
they’ve never bought Bitcoin before so
clearly if they were philosophically in
line they would have figured out how to
open up you know a wallet and and buy
themselves some Bitcoin they wouldn’t
have had to wait all these years uh to
buy it in their swab account but you
know now that they that they’re in and
they they there was a lot of hype and I
think all these big companies the black
rocks the fidelities were kind of
marketing to their client base hey we’ve
got these new ETFs this is great money
got sucked in some of the money came out
of gold ETFs I’m pretty convinced of
that I think some of it came out of gold
stocks and we saw some real weakness in
in both of those uh even as gold prices
was rising and so I think I think money
went in there but I think if we get a
breakdown in Bitcoin from here you know
we break 60,000 then maybe we get back
below 50,000
and people start to get worried uh I
mean you won’t be worried I mean you
don’t care you’ve seen that movie before
but a lot of these people who are buying
for the first time I think you know are
are gonna are going to sell they’re
going to say you know what it’s not
working out the way I thought uh let me
you know cut my loss or I still have a
profit a little profit let me just take
that while I can you know it’s not it
didn’t go way up like I thought now it’s
going down I just want to go to cash I
you know I want to get out and what I
think the problem is going to be if you
get a significant percentage of the ETF
holders who won out on the same day
that’s going to be a big problem for
Bitcoin I just don’t think there’s
enough real liquidity in the spot Market
to handle big outflows uh especially in
one day because remember when people
wanted to get out of the grayscale
Bitcoin trust before all that did is
push the price of the trust down that’s
why it went to a 50% discount because
the Bitcoin were trapped in the trust
they never were sold but today if
somebody wants to get their money out of
grayscale or any of these grayscale has
to go into the Bitcoin market and sell
the Bitcoin and it can’t work a limit
right all of a sudden it’s getting
redemptions these are Market orders just
sell at the market and if all of a
sudden there’s all this Market ORD is
just hitting have to be filled they
can’t wait they have to take whatever
the bid is the bids are going to
collapse the price is going to collapse
and remember tether doesn’t count right
so in the past a lot of the big Bitcoin
sell-offs tether buyers came to the
rescue and bought Bitcoin but when these
ETFs for selling tether doesn’t count
you can’t use it they need to get paid
in dollars not tether or any other uh
you know stablecoin they need actual
dollars that they can send to their
brokerage account customers I I just
don’t think I just think this could be
the next collapse if it’s driven by the
ETFs is going to be one of the biggest
Bitcoin crashes we’ve ever seen maybe
the biggest one uh so that that is a
that is a big risk right now I mean if I
was gonna buy Bitcoin I would wait for a
big collapse because these ETF buyers
are going to get out that’s how markets
work you know even if bitcoin’s going to
go up it’s going to shake out these ETF
buyers first so I it’s got a big uh drop
coming uh regardless of where it goes it
always does I mean I think it you know
it’s going to keep going down but if I
wanted to buy it I’d wait I mean it
always does and it’s survived those
multiple 30 40% retracements each bull
market so I can’t disagree that we’ll
see it but I can if we’re basing on an
idea of what could happen in the future
I would actually argue that the bulk of
these people who are buying ETFs are
probably doing it relatively passively
in their iaas and aren’t even focused on
the price and don’t even know when we
have a 10 or 15% correction I could be
wrong but I I think that listen I check
my stock portfolio once every months if
it’s in my IRA I don’t even notice if a
stock moves 15% in either direction yeah
I you know I’m in the business you know
I mean I in fact I’m now not a stock
broker I was a stock broker for over 30
years and you know a lot of people check
their accounts you’d be I mean most
people check their accounts I lot do of
course yeah you know and and people do
get concerned you know especially with
something new you know people were
buying Bitcoin and they’re hearing all
this stuff you know ,000 150,000 200,000
this year and people are thinking oh I
can buy it at 50 60,000 it’s going to
double or triple all right let me let me
get some of that well if it all of a
sudden they the money is down 10 20% and
they start to think you know this ain’t
doing what everybody said it was gonna
do you know uh maybe maybe I’m just
gonna get out I don’t know I don’t you
know it’s I it doesn’t take much and
because these the the ETFs now they have
something like five or six % of all the
Bitcoin is already in there but you know
if they go to sell the you know a lot of
the volume in Bitcoin is all a bunch of
wash sales it’s kind of you know people
selling to themselves I mean there’s a
lot of phony uh volume there uh going on
I I just don’t see where where the
buying is going to come from I mean I
know where the selling came from all
this money that came into Bitcoin
ETFs and bought all those Bitcoin what
you have to ask yourself is who sold
them that Bitcoin who unloaded their
Bitcoin into the ETFs because somebody
was willing to sell right the question
is who was it because most of you
Bitcoin Maxis oh I didn’t sell any I
mean all the people I talk to I hodal
forever somebody didn’t hod some a lot
of a lot of my own statements that I
make on a daily basis which is why I’m
so suspect of the having narrative right
the Bitcoin having comes every four
years I think it’s a great narrative
that drives a potential cycle but you’re
talking about four or five billion a
year in dollar terms of reduced Supply
and that’s not the only seller in the
market people pretend that just because
you have this reduction that all of a
sudden there’s no other sellers there
are huge Bitcoin whales who are always
willing to sell into any massive price
rise I tend to agree with you there as
well but Bitcoin always continues to
push through that Supply eventually yeah
and I think it’s those whales I mean
they they they scored a big victory with
these ETFs because it gave them an
opportunity to to
which is what they need to do we see but
what about the steady Dem they own so
much but I agree with you on the having
it’s all hyped up I mean they keep
talking about oh the supply is cut in
half no it’s not all that’s cut in half
is the increase in a supply yeah it it’s
cyle is statistically less meaningful
anyways because the asset class has
grown yes because everybody everybody
knows about it and almost all the
Bitcoin have already been mined so
that’s the supply the supply that counts
is what’s already there the new Supply
the incremental increase is small what’s
more important when it comes to bitcoin
is not the supply it’s the demand you
need you need people to want to buy the
supply and that’s the problem because I
think you know if the demand goes down
that that that that then then the price
collapses I would argue that the benefit
to the spot ETFs has actually been the
slow unlocks of raas and platforms to
allow it which has allowed that
sustained demand I think there is pent
up demand when you don’t have Vanguard
online yet probably never uh well people
were buying you know they have Bitcoin
they’re companies that were allowing
people to have Bitcoin and their IAS I
mean I’ve been seeing those ads
self-directed IRAs yeah self-directed so
just like I mean we do at shift gold we
help people set up IAS where they can
buy physical gold right they can have
gold bars gold coins so people were
doing that with with Bitcoin I mean I
know I’ve talked to people who have set
up those IRAs and bought their Bitcoin
but yeah I agree that if you could just
do it at Vanguard you know at you know
at swab it’s much easier you don’t have
to do that and it’s cheaper those
self-directed IRAs sometimes have higher
setup fees and annual custodial fees so
I but I’m saying they literally haven’t
even allowed people to buy these ETFs
yet they haven’t even chosen a lot most
of these platforms the bulk of them
especially Ras are just doing due
diligence now for the first time they
haven’t even had those calls we probably
only see 20 to 30% of the potential
demand even on locked I can’t speak to
what that other 70% would look like well
the demand that’s there now is s is
individual investors who are kind of
self-directed right largely correct and
Wall Street is okay with that because
you’re not as likely to be sued so if
I’m Schwab and one of my customers goes
and buys a Bitcoin ETF in his IRA and
loses a bunch of money you know it’s
hard to sue me because you know we
nobody recommended it nobody advised
them they just did it on their own right
but I don’t think you’re ever really
going to get
raas or the big wirehouse brokerage
firms pushing this they’re not going to
take that kind of a risk uh with the
Bitcoin ETFs because uh there is a large
potential for loss and that means a
greater chance of a lawsuit or you know
an arbitration yeah but I mean people
listen Meta Meta Drew down further than
Bitcoin this last cycle in the bare
Market nobody’s getting sued for you
know indexing meta I don’t think that’s
a well I mean again I mean Facebook is
an S&P 500 big stock I mean obviously
somebody has to be aggressive to buy
meta but you know I I if you put meta if
you put that in someone’s stock and
portfolio and it goes down you know I
think that you’re less likely to be sued
because Bitcoin you know they’re gonna
it’s going to be easier to argue why did
you recommend this it’s just total
speculative you know it’s not a it real
stock it doesn’t pay a dividend it
doesn’t have earnings look I I just
think that Wall Street is going to be
very sensitive because it’s very easy to
sue your broker it’s too easy
unfortunately it’s too easy to sue
everyone in the United States they have
to be extra careful so they may allow
people to buy them unsolicited in their
own account but I can’t see you know a
maril Lynch guy being allowed by Marl
Lynch to get on the phone and and and
and convince somebody recommend that
they buy this on a solicited basis and I
don’t think fiduciaries are going to buy
it for their customers I just think
again uh they have a fiduciary
responsibility and I think if they buy
Bitcoin they could be uh you know
they’re taking they’re taking a risk and
there’s no reason because it’s not even
their money we’ve seen some small Ras
already doing it but it’s only been 18
20 30 million dollar Max but it has
actually happened I would say that you
and I instead of conjecturing should
just like schedule conversation every
six months and see if it’s happened yeah
because I I don’t know if it will or it
won’t I mean that’s probably a good
place to buy Bitcoin is in uh you know
if your broker recommends it you you
could probably buy it it has a free put
because if it goes up you get to keep
the money if it goes down you file an
arbitration and you sue them well let
let me ask you this question I don’t
want to dig so much further into the
Bitcoin versus gold debate or the
problems with Bitcoin what I do want to
dig into is something you hinted at
before a few things miners you said are
a good buy for those who here you know
trade Bitcoin and trade Bitcoin miners
we know that miners effectively have a
high beta to bitcoin they underperform
to the downside they tend to overperform
to the upside you’re talking about
Bitcoin miners yes but is that how is
that how you view gold miners as a as a
corollary they’re not the same asset I’m
just saying I’m trying to put it in
familiar terms for the people who are
listening well I mean Bitcoin I mean
Bitcoin miners I mean first of all
they’re not actually mining anything
they’re just they have computers and
they’re solving data Cent complex math
problems they’re data centers and I bet
a lot of them are about to switch to AI
to be quite honest but yes go ahead but
yeah I mean look they have their own
dynamic because it’s not just the price
of Bitcoin but what you know what it
cost them to mine it and uh you know
what profits they make if any yeah I
want to ask about gold miners more
specifically though I I was just trying
to put it in terms I mean obviously
there’s some
similarities in in that you know it’s
the cost of producing a Bitcoin versus
what they can sell it for
um but I would not want to invest in in
any of these companies I think the the
business models are extremely risky uh
you know given what could potentially
happen to uh the price of Bitcoin and
the cost of mining it I mean the price
could go down and it could cost more to
mine it I mean it’s just uh and and
those stocks I’ve been wa watching them
I mean even when Bitcoin was rallying up
to 74,000 and making a new high they
trailed the Bitcoin miners were getting
killed I think a lot of people had
bought those miners as proxies for an
ETF and they exited Miners and bought
the ETF honest and I thought that was
going to happen to micro strategy and
then micro strategy hit a new high I was
like why why micro strategy I’ll tell
you why buy Bitcoin we know we’ve seen
it there were hedge funds that had
multi-billion dollar basically carry
trades where they were buying Bitcoin
and shorting micro strategy and they got
squeezed so they had to sell Bitcoin at
74,000 which went down and micro
strategy went absolutely flying you can
see that that happened yeah well now
micro strategy is heading back down
again but personally I think course
because that trade’s over got squeezed
and that’s it no I don’t think that
trade’s over I think it’s still a great
trade I mean to the extent that because
I mean I if you like Bitcoin you know
you could buy it and then short micro
strategy is a hedge very common trade
because if Bitcoin goes down micro
strategy should go down more so yeah I
mean that that it is a common trade
undeniably so but you know gold miners I
mean I think go the gold miners
ironically have been a victim of
inflation I mean it’s you know you
wouldn’t have expected that right but
the reason that they were a victim is
inflation over the last 10 years has
been much higher than has been reported
and and perceived and that inflation has
driven the cost of mining up
dramatically and the price of gold has
not kept pace so even though gold is now
2,300 in change a lot of these mining
companies were making more money when it
was
$500 because of the difference between
the cost to mine it and what they sold
it for and so that’s one of the reasons
these stocks are just so cheap and also
stocks are a discounting uh you know
asset so when you’re looking at a gold
mining stock you’re not looking at the
price of gold today you’re looking at
where do you think the price of gold is
going to be in three years and five
years and 10 years because you’re trying
to make an estimate of the future
earnings of that company and then
discount it to the present to figure out
a price and most of the analysts on Wall
Street expect the gold price to be lower
at any given point in the future and so
they bake those lower gold prices into
their earnings estimates and that is
reducing what they believe these stocks
are worth but I think eventually the the
street is going to have to wake up to
the reality of inflation and where
Gold’s going to be and when gold really
catches up and and moves up much more
than the mining costs and now uh the um
analysts have to take a more positive
look at where they think gold prices
will be in the future and actually say
that gold in the future will be more
expensive the price will be higher than
it is now and now they have to figure
out their earnings and then the
valuation I think these stocks are going
way up so I I I I think if you’re
bullish on gold then you should buy
these miners as long as you have a
higher risk tolerance yeah their High
beta to to the price of gold you know
because there’s more downside yeah that
that was the point I was making but we
have this sort of interesting phenomenon
you also touched on earlier where gold
ETFs have seen a sell-off but gold
prices are obviously Rising I wouldn’t
have necessarily attributed that to the
Bitcoin ETFs you said that that’s part
of it no well I think I think what was
going on is the the the buyers some of
the big buyers have been central banks
you know foreign central banks that was
my next question those central banks
aren’t buying gold stocks they weren’t
buying silver that’s why silver wasn’t
moving up until all of a sudden it it
popped but they were buying fisical gold
and you know think a lot of the the
retail sellers who were selling their
gold ETFs and selling stocks some of
that money went into Bitcoin ETFs some
of it maybe went into other types of
stocks some of it may have just gone
into Cash there were a lot of people
when gold was at 2,000 a lot of people
were convinced that that was the top
that well this is where it stops this is
resistance so let me sell my gold I
maybe I’ll buy it back when it goes to
1,800 or, 1700 but you know gold hadn’t
really been able to go much above 20000
for 10 years and every time it got up
around there it sold off sold off so I
think the public you know
sold at that price um and you know
whatever they did but they were wrong
because now we’re we got to 2400 and
change we moved 20% above uh 2000
personally I don’t think we’re ever
going back down to 2000 I think we’ve
broken out I think 2300 is the new 2,000
so I mean I think that’s where the
support is now maybe maybe I said when
gold breaks 2,000 it’s going straight to
3,000 I’ve been saying that for a long
time and I really believe it because of
what you described but it’s interesting
to hear you talk about gold and people
selling it at 2,000 because of
resistance and then criticize Bitcoin
for being largely speculators because
the only people who are selling gold at
2,000 because it’s resistance are people
who are speculating on the price of gold
and want to trade it yeah well look
there’s a lot of people who have been in
Gold for a while but I agree look
there’s short-term Traders in goal too I
mean there are long-term holders and the
long-term holders tend to be like the
shift gold customers right the customers
who were buying physical gold and silver
where we put it in a box and ship it to
them they weren’t calling us up at 2,000
to sell us back their gold right but
some of our customers were reluctant to
buy more up there because they you know
they had they had been disappointed many
times in the past every time it gets up
here you know so they were hesitant to
buy but I’m sure uh the people who you
know have self-directed brokerage
accounts who had some money in gold
stocks and some money in ETFs you know
they’re they’re more of a Trader
mentality I mean some of the people that
have these discount brokerage accounts
the reason they have them is because
they trade a lot and they want the low
transaction costs they want to be able
to get in and out and so that money you
know you know can make an impact in the
short run on on prices in the long run
it’s not as material but for short term
yeah you know you can you you can push
the market around um and and so went
down but I think a lot of those people
who sold gold around 2000
they’re they’re probably regretting buy
it back at 25 come on we know how hum
are of course they will that’s what
humans do they sell the bottom and they
buy the top I mean and then you know
they regret their decision not to I mean
that’s the story of markets regardless
of what the asset is you also you know
we we’re talking about the gold ETFs
themselves it’s interesting that we talk
about whether raas will recommend
Bitcoin ETFs maybe they will maybe they
won’t you obviously think that they
won’t why do we still only talk about
6040 portfolios from registered
investment advisers and from
professionals and they’re not allocating
to Gold still after we’ll say you know
tens of years or hundreds of years in
markets but thousands of years
effectively you would think I’m GNA say
it’s because they don’t get paid as much
to recommend it but you would think that
we would have a 1% forget even Bitcoin
we would have already seen 1% or 2% to
Gold rationally as part of someone’s
100% portfolio yeah you know once upon a
time you know that was the case I mean
if you looked at a portfolio certainly
in the 70s or 80s you know there was an
allocation to Gold 5%
10% uh in in in portfolios but you know
with the 990s and the 2000s and you know
how good the markets went and you know
the Fed was able to keep everything
going um it seemed like there was no
reason for anybody to want to hedge and
you know they came up with derivatives
and strategies that you could use to
hedge the downside uh you know using
options or other kind of uh products so
they thought why hedge with gold we we
have other ways of hedging a portfolio
and so over time you know kind of gold
got squeezed out of the mix you know it
just was all stocks and bonds and yeah
you know if if advisors don’t even want
to recommend gold why why are they G to
recommend Bitcoin if they think it’s
digital gold they won’t even recommend
actual gold uh to their clients uh but I
think that is going to change I think
that when gold really starts to move up
again you’re going to see uh more
institutional money or advisor money
starting to move into the sector and of
course the problem is it’s a very small
sector so if you get even a small
allocation but from you know a larger
pool of buyers that’s enough to drive
the price much much higher but the other
thing I said about litigation is look if
you just do a 60/40 portfolio and you
adjust it you know usually the older the
person is it’s not 6040 anymore it might
you increase the amount of bonds the
portfolio but if you recommend something
that’s standard and it doesn’t work out
you know you’re still pretty much
protected from litigation because you
did what everybody else does you know
you did you you did what is accepted and
what is considered prudent and if it
doesn’t work out it’s not your fault but
if you go out on the limb with your
customers and you do something that’s
outside the box something that’s not you
know the same as everybody else and it
doesn’t work out you have a much B
chance of losing in in in a arbitration
a s why did you do that what a sad
system so people are very defensive in
the industry and so they they take
comfort in doing what the conventional
wisdom says is the right thing to do
like personally I don’t think long-term
Bond should be in anybody’s portfolio I
just think they’re going to get wiped
out through inflation I mean it’s either
going to be default or inflation so to
me it’s not prudent to hold bonds you
know I don’t care you know but but Wall
Street you know looks at it differently
where is the gold buying coming from you
talked about central banks we know China
certainly and a number of countries in
Asia are buying gold wildly uh to add to
their Central Bank holdings we know
Chinese people are buying gold and mass
right now because the real estate market
effectively has crashed and that’s where
they used to keep their we know people
in India buy gold and we even know that
Costco is selling out of
gold yeah I mean people make a big deal
they think oh this is the top because if
you know look people are buying gold at
Costco that’s the only store they’re
buying it it’s not like you know all the
stores you know it’s just Costco and I
think they Max it out to like three
ounces per customer when you go in so uh
you know I I I think it’s this is the
beginning of a trend not the end I think
that by the time gold does c top top out
uh you know there’ll be a lot more
stores uh that that allow you to sell
gold you know I guess if McDonald’s was
selling gold you know uh you know when
you checked out uh you know that might
be indication of a of top last I checked
my barber and my barber and Uber driver
haven’t asked me about gold yet so but
um but you know what I would love to see
with gold is I’d love to see it
remonetized I think it’s going to be
remonetized I think that’s why central
banks are buying it they’re looking to
replace their dollar reserves but more
importantly I’d like to see the private
sector remonetized gold and using gold
as a me of exchange as you know unit of
account uh reintroducing it uh in
Commerce and the the way to do that is
through uh the internet through
blockchain and uh you know through
tokenization and so all the things that
you love about Bitcoin can be done much
better with gold uh cheaper faster the
only thing is you know you got to have a
a third party custodian uh to hold your
gold to allow you to uh transact with it
uh the way you can with Bitcoin uh but
you know there are a lot of custodians
that are reputable you know we we we
trust third parties you know all the
time and if you buy an insurance policy
I’m sure you have insurance whether it’s
life insurance fire insurance auto
insurance all that is about trusting a
third party the insurance company has to
pay your claim uh and and so if they
don’t you know you’ve wasted your money
and so it’ be the same same thing with
tokenization of gold you’d have to have
companies that you trusted that are
audited that are maybe insured uh that
are holding your gold and once that
happens that gold can circulate on the
blockchain instantaneously and so I
could use my gold to buy a cup of coffee
I can’t use my Bitcoin to buy a cup of
coffee because the transaction costs
more than the coffee and the and the and
the Barista doesn’t have time to wait a
half an hour an hour to for the Bitcoin
to come through you can I mean you can
use Layer Two Solutions but to the layer
one everybody about light but we’re also
but but but the app the Apples to Apples
comparison there is not using tokenized
gold to make a payment on the blockchain
it’s going in with a block of gold and
trying to shave off enough to pay for
why would you do that though that’s the
equivalent of the layer one no but you
don’t have to do that that mean that
that you don’t have to do with Bitcoin
either well that’s what happened with
paper money you know the first paper
money was not issued by the governments
in the United States it was issued by
private Banks and it was to make it
easier than carrying around your gold
you let the bank hold your gold and they
gave you a note uh you know paper note
that that so you could do we could do
the same thing uh with gold but no if I
wanted to use metal to buy coffee I
would pay in Copper you know I would or
or maybe a nickel I mean even silver
would be too I give well a silver dime
if you have a silver dime right if you
if you buy the uh you know the junk
silver and you get an old silver dime
you know you could pay for coffee with
some silver dimes so that would work I
agree but that’s not Apples to Apples
yeah I mean you can use it’s the same
argument though is that you could use a
lay or two Solution that’s faster and
cheaper on bitcoin you’re talking about
literally using the exact same network
to send an asset so it would take the
same amount of time but you’re sending a
real asset instead of a fake one that
that that we can debate but that
actually has is a store value and you
can price like gold is uh not that
volatile
and so if you’re a denominator is AR you
can price you can price your products in
Gold but pricing products in Bitcoin is
very difficult because you have to
change the price frequently because
bitcoin’s all over the place but that I
mean listen gold did make a 20% move to
your point that is seemingly overnight
it happens and I think that bitcoin’s
volatility will with for better for
worse with uh Wall Street involved and
more money coming in that volatility
will also decrease I don’t the
speculators don’t want to hear that well
people have been saying that to me I
remember when you know Bitcoin went up
to 20,000 the first time and people said
oh that this is it you know uh um you
know it’s not now the volatility is over
you don’t have to worry about these big
drops you know it’s actually a safer
investment now because we’ve gotten all
that out of it and and then it collapses
to three and and then it goes up to to
60 and they say the same thing oh it’s
never this is safe now the volatility is
gone then the next thing you know it’s
back below 20,000 again uh and so the
volatility never goes away I mean it’s
you know the crashes haven’t stopped the
higher prices hasn’t changed
that that’s somewhat fair but why do you
people why do you think going back to
the last question why do you think
people are starting to buy gold now
again what problem are they identifying
that they think they need that hedge
after all of those years stocks are
effectively an all-time high right I
mean they they’ve retraced a bit the
dollar has been relatively strong if you
believe the fed’s numbers inflation’s
coming down I don’t believe the fed’s
numbers for the record uh unemployment
numbers are good by any measure that the
government will present you the economy
is strong and markets are strong so why
would people be choosing to hedge now
what do they know that uh the government
is not telling us well I mean first of
all even the numbers the FED is using
show inflation headed back higher so now
the FED is kind of ignoring that but
yeah the numbers grossly understate how
how the inflation problem is I think
that the economy is not nearly as good
as uh the numbers suggest and the
numbers may not even be accurate they
may be revised substantially lower uh in
the future um and so who knows if these
numbers even are going to hold up but I
think they’re very misleading especially
the jobs numbers because all the jobs
we’re creating are part-time jobs and
they’re going to people who already have
jobs and the reason these jobs are being
created is because the people who have
one job uh can’t afford to pay the rent
anymore or for their food or their
insurance or their their electric bill
so people’s standard of living is going
down and so they’re giving up their free
time in the evenings or on the weekends
to work second and third jobs uh to to
to pay the bills so this is not a sign
of a strong economy is a sign of a weak
economy but I don’t actually think we’re
getting uh a significant increase in
retail interest yet in the price of gold
so the price of gold is going up but
it’s not because
Americans are buying more gold I mean
that’s not what’s happening and I know
that because I’m in the gold business
and I see what’s happening at at my
company and what’s happening at
competitors because we’re able to talk
to the wholesalers about the volumes and
so what I think is happening is the
price is rising because some of the
selling dried up because the sellers
kind of ran out of gold or whatever they
were selling at 2000 but the buying
continued and the buying is coming I
think dominantly from the East whether
it’s individuals uh in in uh in India or
in China who have always been buying
gold and are continuing to buy gold but
you have these central banks that are
buying more gold and I think they are
going to keep buying uh it’s they’re not
that sensitive to price I mean if the
price moves up I mean they’ll buy more
they they probably want to you know
stretch out their buying because they
don’t want to spike the price they don’t
want their buying to to shoot it up they
want to buy as much gold as they can for
the money so they’re probably you know
rather slow buyers they probably do keep
some bids in below the market and then
buy and I think you know they have a lot
more gold that they need to buy and they
got plenty of cash to pay for it right
they got they’ve got their balance the
question still I I agree with that the
question is still why do they need to
buy it and why are they adding so much
now well I think the reason the central
banks are are adding it is because they
can you know read the writing on the
wall with respect to the problems for
the dollar because the dollar is their
primary Reserve asset but the problem is
it’s a liability of the world’s biggest
debtor nation and our debt is exploding
exponentially you know we’re almost at a
$35 trillion national debt uh we’re now
spending more than a trillion a year
just on interest on that debt and If the
Fed leaves interest rates just where
they are not raises them which is what
they should be doing but they’re
reluctant to do it but at some point
next year we’ll be spending $2 trillion
a year on interest on the debt uh more
than we spend on Medicare or Social
Security it’ll be the number one and
Military combined and Military combined
and and you know I don’t know I mean as
the debt becomes bigger and bigger
there’s a lot of political pressure
either to create massive inflation or to
default right because I can see a
situation where the US government just
decides to default on the debt that’s
held by foreigners you know we we
already seized uh the debt held by
Russia right and so that’s part of the
reason the political motivation to
dollarize even apart from the threat of
default or inflation but as the national
debt becomes a bigger and bigger burden
on the US economy what is going to be
done right because we can’t pay it and
so we either have to default
honestly or we have to inflate if
they’re going to start cutting spending
the responsibly I mean I think
politicians are more likely to default
on the bonds that the Chinese own than
Cut soal Security or cut Medicare
because the Chinese can’t vote in our
elections right so who cares if we screw
them um so the Chinese have to realize
that it’s a risk holding all these
treasuries so they might as well get out
you know and I think they also recognize
that the yield they’re getting on these
treasuries is not nearly enough to
offset the risk of holding them either
the risk of inflation or the risk of
default and and so they’re selling you
know we’re doing nothing about our
looming debt crisis we just approved in
Congress another $95 billion of foreign
aid where’s the money coming from to pay
for that nobody questioned how we’re
going to pay for this oh let’s just
borrow it so let’s just take our debt
problem and make it even bigger right
there’s nobody in Washington that has
any kind of fiscal discipline nobody
said okay yes we really need to give
more money to the Ukraine we need to
give some money to Israel so how are we
going to pay for it right what what
other programs are we going to cut so
that we have this money or whose taxes
are we going to raise so that we can
cover the cost no nobody has to pay for
it we just print the money we’ll borrow
the money and print and that’s and and
so this our creditors look at that and
say I’m out of these dollars I mean I’m
not going to stick around for this and
and so when you sell your dollars you
have to buy something right you got to
get your what are you going to do well
you’re buy euros I mean what’s so great
about Euro Zone do you want to load up
on Japanese Yen so what are you going to
buy right gold is basically the only
viable alternative they have especially
too if they don’t want to be beholden to
the issuer because when you own dollars
you know you know you kind of beholden
to the United States we call the shots
when you own our currency like we could
we already showed that we could take it
away whenever we want but if it’s gold
and you you have it in your own country
in a vault nobody can sanction that away
from you right you own that and and so
you know PE people people want that
safety so that’s what’s going on and I
think the price of gold is going a lot
higher because a lot of these central
banks that are buying the gold they
hardly have any gold right now relative
to their total reserves so they have a
lot of gold they need to buy if they
want to catch up to the West I mean look
at how much gold you know Germany has us
has France you know that we those
countries have a lot of gold relative to
their in their reserves but these other
countries that have much bigger reserves
than like France and Germany I mean
larger foreign currency reserves they
have a tiny percentage allocated to Gold
so they got a long way to go who’s
selling it to them as we finish here
yeah well again they’re getting it from
retail I mean there was a lot of
outflows from the ETFs this year so they
obviously were able to buy that up um
they do buy up some of the the
production right there are mines that
are producing gold so there’s Supply
that’s coming into the market that that
they’re able to buy uh but I think
they’re going to run out of that that’s
going to be the problem I mean that the
people who were willing to sell their
gold now there’s not as many now that
we’ve cleared 2,000 we’ve taken out some
resistance um I think you know we’re
exhausting ourselves of selling and I
think the price is going to move up to a
much higher level before you know we
draw in some new sellers to enable the
central banks to continue buying which
is something that they need to do so the
question is at what price will more gold
Supply come on the market obviously if
the price goes to 5,000 the mines can
produce a lot more yeah you know there
are these big gold companies that have
gold underground that cost you know two
2500 an ounce 3,000 an ounce to get it
out of the ground so they’re not going
to do it but if the price goes high
enough yeah they’ll produce the gold uh
to meet that demand so that can happen
and you know you get some point you know
the long-term investors will start
selling their gold some people will
start turning in their jewelry you know
a lot of companies that buy gold and
recycle it right they buy scrap and so
people could say you know what I don’t
really wear this uh a bracelet I don’t
wear this ring anymore I’ll just sell it
you know companies buy that up and now
that adds to the supply uh for investors
so you know more you know higher prices
will do that uh but the prices right now
are not high enough to to create that
additional Supply so Peter you’re saying
there’s more Supply underground and the
supply could go up without us knowing
exactly how much just because there’s
more incentive to mine it isn’t that
yeah but there’s still a limit I mean
that you know it’s very the even if we
have the goal in the ground it takes a
lot of investment it doesn’t come on
stream immediately I mean it could take
years for that extra Supply to hit the
market and it’s going to come out at a
more of a predictable rate I mean you
just can’t you know may wave a magic
wand and all that gold just jumps out of
the ground um so it’s you know I mean
the gold Supply historically uh it grows
very slowly you know you can’t really
get that much additional Supply um you
can get some addition but it’s not like
all of a sudden you could just double
the amount of gold out there it’s not
not even close I mean the supply is
generally maybe one to two per a year is
about what you can get I guess we’ll
have to wait for that asteroid the last
10 minut I’m was joking yeah that’s
Bitcoin propaganda I I don’t believe in
that at all giant gold asteroid out
there that was a sarcastic uh quip for
for anyone watching I don’t think we’re
getting asteroid gold anytime that it’s
going to matter we have much bigger
problems that are going to hit before
that I just want you to know the last
like 12 minutes there was exactly what I
was hoping for that we wouldn’t argue
about Bitcoin because those are all the
things I think that we absolutely
wholeheartedly agree on and I think
Peter man I think you got one toe in I
think you could become one of us you
know with enough time well I I I mean
philosophically that’s we’re we’re
align um it’s just that you know I I
really think you guys are missing the
point you you should be advocating for
sound money for return to Gold because
that is the the solution that we need
that’s the monetary solution to rein in
excess government uh spending and to
have the politicians honest is to return
to honest money a gold standard and to
the extent that the Bitcoin Community is
detracting from that is causing people
uh to move into Bitcoin or other crypto
at tokens instead of gold and in fact a
lot of the people who promote Bitcoin
trash gold you know Gold’s no good gold
doesn’t work gold is flawed Gold’s a a
worthless Rock they don’t even know that
it’s a metal they all think gold is a
rock and that it has no use case and
that it’s it doesn’t really have any
value and so I think they’re doing a
disservice uh to the message that they
really want to S send that I think the
government loves it when people promote
Bitcoin instead of gold because I think
that if the gold price really was
starting to go up that would worry the
politicians that would be a threat to
the dollar but Bitcoin going up is only
a threat to the people who are foolish
enough to buy it you know so the
government doesn’t care you know what
happens with the price of Bitcoin but
they would really care about a big move
up in the price of gold because that is
a big warning that uh there’s a major
problem uh but you know so I I really
would I’m welcoming the day when you
guys you know finally I love gold so I’m
both uh you know come back home to to
real gold you know I don’t know what
it’s going to take to get you off the
Bitcoin train not happening uh how low
does the price have to go uh you know or
I I don’t mean necessarily I’m saying
that I think that there’s a deep
philosophical religious whatever it is
as we’ve describe belief in both assets
so there’s always going to be a floor
and I don’t think that those people get
shaken
out well we’ll see I mean the Bitcoin
religion hasn’t been around very long so
people can convert people may decide
that you know it’s a false God they’re
not if they got to go somewhere I’d
rather them go to to gold than to
anywhere else so I think we can
hopefully hopefully Bitcoin eventually
gets people to Gold you know the problem
is they won’t have much money left to
buy it but you know I I think they’re
going to be just fine but we’re going to
schedule another one down the road and
see Peter thank you so much for taking
the time I know that uh not necessarily
your favorite topic but once again I’m
glad we agree on the bulk of it well I
find myself talking a lot about it these
days so wasn’t that wasn’t my intention
but here we are you tweet about it a lot
too yeah you know I I do I do and I get
a lot of engagement on those tweets I
know a lot of people you’re the best
troll you’re the best troll in the game
I know you’re doing it on purpose they
fall and they fall for it every time and
it it’s it’s pretty brilliant it’s
pretty brilliant well you know we were
on Twitter spaces and I we tried to help
push you over a million one day there
and I think you got oh yeah well that’s
right I am I’m now I’m more than 10,000
over a million so at least I’ve got it
you’re Sav you’re saved from the bot
cleansing then you know if they CLE
9,000 Bots you’re good yeah it’s hard
though to get to you know just to get to
a million one takes it takes a long time
you know there are people that have
millions of followers I don’t know how
they get them but you know I don’t
advertise I’ve never advertised for one
they’re all organic I’m 950 fiveish and
feel like I’ve been here for three years
I can’t can’t get can’t get the million
myself but maybe uh it look like well
you’ll get there but yeah it’s it’s slow
it’s slow going once you get close it is
Peter thank you so much for your time I
really really do appreciate it I hope we
can catch up in the future sure thing
anytime thanks byebye
[Music]

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets podcast, Peter Schiff, a prominent stockbroker and gold investor, discusses why Bitcoin and gold are so different, explains his belief that the price of gold will continue to rise, and predicts that Bitcoin will experience the biggest crash in its history.

Peter Schiff: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #Gold
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:22 Bitcoiners and goldbugs
2:10 Macro environment
6:10 The price of gold will increase faster than the cost of mining
6:45 iTrustCapital
7:43 Can Bitcoin replace gold?
11:10 Safe haven
13:25 Bitcoin is a risk asset
14:40 ETFs will be a big problem for Bitcoin
17:00 Big crash
20:30 Who sold Bitcoin?
22:50 RIAs
26:51 Trading Bitcoin miners
28:30 Buy Bitcoin, short Microstrategy
29:25 Inflation against gold miners
33:00 Gold speculation
34:50 60/40 Portfolio
38:10 Who buys gold
39:30 Gold on blockchain
42:20 Volatility
43:45 Dollar is a problem
48:00 US to default?
51:20 Demand for gold will increase
52:55 Gold supply

54:10 Peter Schiff & Bitcoin

56:48 Wrap up

The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.