Bitcoin Is Falling | Crash Or Correction?

Bitcoin Is Falling | Crash Or Correction?

Bitcoin continues to chop downwards
testing the bottom of the range that
we’ve been in for the last couple of
months is this the time that support is
going to break should we be concerned
with the price action right now should
we just be touching grass or should we
actively be looking to buy this dip
we’re going to talk about the market but
of course all the news and everything
that’s happening at the moment in crypto
and Beyond I have some of my favorite
guests today Tom dun leevy from I guess
we’re saying from Master Ventures now
Tom dun leevy from Master Ventures uh
ex- researcher obviously at misari who
comes on and gives us the alpha
constantly then of course on the back
half Andrew and Tilman from Arch publ to
update us on the $10,000 trading
portfolio their high frequency bot and
how everything’s going in the equity
Market there you don’t want to miss this
one guys let us go
[Music]
what is up everybody I’m Scott mker also
known as The Wolf of all streets before
we get started please subscribe to the
channel and hit that like button down
below I hope you guys are having a
wonderful Tuesday and that you are not
getting slap chopped away in this
garbage hot trash Market that we call
crypto in April it’s April 30th which
means it’s about to be May was it sell
in April ahead of May or is it sell in
May and go away or is it moon in May and
make hey all day I don’t know I was
trying to make something up and I and I
failed we know that we generally have
very boring summers in crypto we
obviously have four to six months of
sideways chop and boring generally
reason people thought this time was
going to be exceptionally different I’m
gonna bring on Tom and we’re going to
talk about it should we have all just
sold in April and uh disappeared until
September October and then now we go up
only in the four-year cycle and call it
a day we should have just all sold the
top right it was so obvious in high how
do we not how did we not I don’t know
how we didn’t see it I didn’t I don’t
know how we didn’t see it yeah know but
there’s there’s a few things that are
kind of kicking in here right you have
the macro side so stagflation in the US
that GDP misss hot wages hot in hot uh
inflation figures we’ve had the out
close of the US ETFs which haven’t
helped regulatory stuff with consensus
which is not was going to play out over
years and that just kind of ate away at
the market until this morning we had the
Hong Kong ETF launch which everyone was
excited about you know you have 150
million crypto users in Asia versus only
50 million in the US so that should have
been a huge potential inflow into the
market people were expecting 100 million
plus we got I think 11 so uh not good
not good um you know but longer term
things haven’t changed things haven’t
changed yeah perfect um so this was
supposed to be a big big event and it’s
sort of fell flat on its face right now
right I I don’t know why the expectation
was for such a big event if you ever
broke down the numbers of just how small
the ETF Market is in Hong Kong in
general it’s effectively a rounding
error versus the United States Market I
think this is always a more of a story
of China’s softening view on crypto and
the fact that these were even being
approved and moving in that direction
and they could eventually become popular
but the fact is in Asia people trade
spot Bitcoin 67x the volume in the
United States and that’s where the money
is they’re not buying ETFs because they
don’t have the same advantages that we
have here interestingly though Eric
balunis here’s Hong Kong crypto etf’s
volume breakdown all told traded 12.54
million he said a lot for that market
equivalent of 1.6 billion in US assets
much stronger though right he goes into
it but actually him maybe because he
just you know ETF guy and wants it to
look attractive but saying this isn’t as
bad as we think but is that why I mean d
like I see people saying that’s why
we’re dumping again right we got up to
like 65,000 yesterday and then these
debuted and flat yeah yeah yeah I think
that’s certainly the short-term reason
but we’re up 4X on Bitcoin in the last
year 3x on ethereum 15x on Solana so you
know we’re taking a bit of a pause
regardless you can’t just go straight up
forever so you know any interm reasons
people were looking
to we can’t can we can once once we get
the ra on board but I think you know the
broader thing that I was looking for for
this Hong Kong ETF was the ethereum ETF
and those flows yeah still not super
impressive so I think it’s probably just
the less of a demand in that market they
also have a very underdeveloped ra
Market which is going to drive a lot of
the flows here in the US um as we talked
about ad nauseum right that’s just not
something that they have over there yeah
we’ve seen slow unlocks in the United
States obviously for the RAS spoke with
Peter Schiff on Sunday he made the
contention that these raas because of
the fear of litigation would never
recommend Bitcoin spot ETFs to their
clients I think that’s nonsense to be
quite Frank but um you know uh we are
getting the ra unlocks the question is
if we’re actually getting them to
recommend these or if it’s just on an
unsolicited basis where someone who
wants to buy them asks their ra for
exposure yeah so the raas need stability
and they need to understand where this
sort of sits in your portfolio so
there’s been a lot of chopp in crypto
obviously the last few years but we’re
starting to see things calm down so if
you look at the actual depth of the
market so that’s how much you can trade
on either side of the order book um you
know those have returned finally to
normal levels post FTX and those were
blown out for a long time spreads same
thing they used to be five 10 basis
points wide now they’re less than a
basis point um you know you still have a
ton of those inflows that haven’t even
been turned online that we’ve talked
about so like the markets you could
start to see how you can make a case for
an R up and above just the price action
that hey these things are starting to
trade like normal markets you can
actually recommend them to clients
because they you’re you’re not going to
have this huge amount of career risk
when you do
so yeah I mean that that’s my thinking
on it as well you sort of touched on the
fact that we had disappointing ethereum
spot ETF I I don’t think there’s any
appetite anywhere for ethereum spot ETFs
even if they get approved they’re not
getting approved first of all in May
right which we I think we all
know right now you know I think we’re
having enough trouble I shouldn’t call
it trouble but it’s a slow drip on
getting everyone Expos bit in the first
place in our Echo chamber we think
everybody wants the next asset but we
forget that 99% of the people out there
are still just getting comfortable with
Bitcoin yeah and there’s there’s the
echo chamber but we also have to realize
the echo chamber is broadening so if you
just look at Bass alone which is I think
the best mechanism to see how people are
onboarding into crypto you have all like
the cryp curious people on coinbase that
are going over to the base L2 and we’re
getting 50,000 users a day and now we’re
over 8 million users so and those are
continuous throughout this whole cycle
throughout the sort of drips and
downturns so I think there are more
people kind of broadening and coming in
but even within our ecosystem there’s a
lot to be excited about in the next
quarter I think people forget like these
and I layer was just announced yesterday
we have these enormous points programs
and all these are are free money so igen
layers trading at like a$1 15 billion
valuation like premarket or whatever
that’s two billion that’s going to be
aird dropped to people it’s just the
beginning you have you know FR Tech more
Jupiter aird drops layer zero scroll ZK
sync fuel shardi there’s there’s so many
of them and this is going to be billions
of dollarss that is coming in and where
do you think it goes usually trades
within the ecosystem on you know 3 to 5x
leverage and you see a lot of these
coins kind of pump up on that
they disseminate throughout the
ecosystem to whatever projects are
around there but in aggregate they raise
the market value of crypto and we’re
going to see that throughout this
quarter um side note I thought it was
kind of hilarious that uh igen layer’s
banning all VPN based users when they
let everyone use a VPN to essentially I
was just gonna say that let everybody
use a VPN I didn’t read so de deeply AG
it but they essentially let everyone use
a VPN to farm the points lock up their
coins to stake and earn points for this
airdrop and then blocking Americans
Canadians Etc and anyone using a VPN
from actually getting the airdrop that
they locked their funds up to farm for
all of these months and the tokenomics
are complete hot garbage trash and let’s
be honest what you just described is the
Ponzi washing machine of crypto I’m not
saying you’re wrong but like that money
is gonna go into [ __ ] meme coins like
let’s be real that’s not that money that
comes in free from those ecosystems does
not go into like meaningful building in
crypto it’s going to go into base meme
coins or Salon meme coins or whatever
for now because it’s the same DG doing
the same dgen Casino
activity agreed and that’s bad for the
short term but eventually those find
meaningful use cases so I like to think
about all crypto Investments as like
half attention economy and half
fundamentals and that’s like a starting
point like mem coins are obviously 99%
attention economy and zero to 1%
fundamentals if maybe you’re like
turning it into a zk2 like she you know
um but you know there’s a spectrum there
and that’s how you have to think about
these things and you have to get the
attention economy especially with the
amount of protocols that are launching
today so like as someone who’s in the
space every day I’m sure you feel it I’m
sure like the the users feel it it used
to be you had this anchor of okay I know
what the l1s are I know which one or two
are emerging oh I know what the l2s are
okay I know which one or two are
emerging okay maybe I know some D5
protocols now I mean just in the past
quarter alone there is a explosion each
one of these things and it’s hard to
keep like an anchor of what actually the
major Protocols are doing what new
Protocols are doing and where sort of
the gaps are so you need to drive
attention to your protocol or it’s just
going to get washed away in the sea of
all of these new protocols that are
launching just looking this quarter I
mean we’re going to have you know 100
plus protocols go to their token
generation event through all of the
launchpads directly through exchanges
and then directly going through um you
know just amm pools and things like that
it’s it’s it’s going to be overwhelming
um so it’s I think you need to drive the
attention if that’s that’s a meme you
know that’s that’s what you got to do
you got to do it somehow yeah I totally
agree so let’s talk about investing in
this current market because that’s what
you’re actively doing on a day-to-day
basis so maybe that’s the more
compelling conversation it’s kind of
different this time right I mean we have
this sort of like meme
coin beta trade everybody’s taking where
anyone can get into a free sale pre-sale
and SP and address and hope for the best
get we have the airdrop economy it seems
like there’s a little luster off of the
pre-sale World although that’s still
very active but you know this push back
against VCS I mean what are the
verticals right now and how are people
sort of or how should be people I guess
approaching this
market so on the private Market side
we’re still seeing a lot of very uh
richly priced rounds um projects
certainly have the power but I think
which is what is probably interesting
for public folks uh folks who are
investing in the public markets is that
these VCS have to bid up these assets
and are going to have to continue to bid
up these assets for the foreseeable
future because they’re underallocation
you know I’ve had a re few conversations
recently with bigger VCS who are 20 to
30% allocated in their hundred million
plus portfolio so what does that mean
for people it’s that you know VCS give
these project money projects money at
higher valuations those projects take
the money at higher valuations and bring
it into points program programs and
airdrop programs so if I was a user
today and actively engage and trying to
make the bonus money on the private side
it would certainly be trying to engage
in all these points programs I don’t
think there’s a huge amount of alpha to
be made by trying to hunt down the next
like longtail L1 it’s I would just do a
barbell strategy right now not Financial
advice but you know hold the majors that
you really like because you don’t want
to miss if you believe Bitcoin is GNA 3x
Sol or ethereum 4X Solana 5x I mean
that’s a pretty hard Benchmark to beat
so build on that position and on the
other side you can do your dgen
portfolio you can airdrop for them and
take the VC money right that’s what
you’re doing at the end of the day is
you’re taking all the VC money for the
user activity you’re providing do you
think that the token launches are more
fair this cycle than they were in the
past yeah so I had a tweet about this
yeah I had did tweet about this this
morning because it’s been I don’t think
people and there’s no like perfect model
for token distribution I think the token
model that was probably best was
actually the Ico model because it had
the most distribution up front got the
token out to the most amount of users
now there’s really a challenge protocols
faed it’s like how do I get tokens out
to the most amount of people possible
without everyone just dumping my token
on day one so you know ideally you want
to get like 10 to 15% out there and
you’re going to do that through like
some unlock up front some airdrop
campaigns and then um you know some
through your community and things like
that but it’s a it’s sort of a muddy
picture because there’s only a few ways
to do that legally in all the
jurisdiction are still like all over the
place to try to figure it out but um you
know in terms of distributions you know
I think 10 to 20% to investors 10 to 20%
Founders and the broad amount to the
community that’s that’s what you want to
do 40 50% and that’s really what you
should fund a lot of your ecosystem
growth on yeah so let’s talk more on
views on the market like I kind of
touched on at the beginning but we
didn’t really get into the cycle I mean
we preempted the all-time high this time
because of ETF demand obviously I mean
to your point the ETF demand has
slowed interestingly ibid is now only
like 1.4 billion behind gbtc so it’s
probably going to flip it and gbtc will
become the second largest 51.5 million
outflows as you can see here yesterday I
mean it feels to me like we got that
alltime high because of the timing of
the ETF and now maybe we’re back into a
normal having cycle some think the top
could be in I still lean towards show me
the that we’re not in the same cycle as
always and thinking we have a boring
summer again and up in the fall so how
do you approach this I mean does Bitcoin
you know do we start to change opinion
if Bitcoin say starts closing candles
below 60 right because we’re seeing some
pretty serious altcoin bleeding here I
mean what are your signals that the bull
Market’s over if that happen do you have
sort of an invalidation and what’s your
base
case this very much mirrors previous
having Cycles it very much mirrors
previous election Cycles as well so
election election years previously yeah
exactly exactly so se you know I
previously you see May to September just
be completely flat and just chop and I
think the best thing is just not to get
eaten up with leverage and trying to get
over your skis and just have your
fundamental positions and then layer on
the the sort of air drops and other
things you could do you know my base
case is we’re going to see that really
really boring summer then hopefully
we’re going to get some Catalyst towards
the end of the summer so stable coin
legislation is on the table um you know
if we actually get that Banks move from
friend to foes right we have 200 million
200 billion excuse me Dollar Market and
Stables that Banks could start taking
advantage of and then we have that big
sort of September crypto conference
season which is like token 2049 you have
break point and you have main net which
is going to be an enormous amount of
announcements I think for a number of
protocols launches get the excitement
going again for the back half of the
year and that’s what I think we really
accelerate so Q4 um is when you know not
only is Biden and team going to be doing
everything they can to juice the economy
but you’re also going to have the crypto
economy have a lot of those
announcements and things like that if
you’re looking at just on the the
broader macro side I mean you have Biden
trying to cancel I think over a trillion
would be more than we’ve spent on all of
higher education before the year 2020 so
you know there’s there’s going to be a
lot of juice pumped into the the broader
economy to help help the Democrats and I
think that’s certainly going to filter
into a lot of the crypto the crypto uh
at atmosphere but that’s a Q4 thing so
um you know again I think we just
unfortunately again have to be a little
patient and just just not not kill
ourselves with with getting to uh out
front of our skis with positions yeah I
keep saying the more I think about it
obviously we know that there’s sort of
the crypto having cycle but as you said
that aligns with the election cycle
right the election is always like four
to six months after the having at least
in sort of the modern era of Bitcoin and
then you have this sort of global
liquidity cycle and the refinancing of
debt that kind of happens on that same
cycle R Paul talks about quite a bit
that said to me if you’re the Democrat
and we really do believe that they’re
going to sort of manipulate it to try to
get a victory you could let markets slip
for the next three or four months and
then just by simply going back up by the
end of the summer or early fall it’s
erased so you can maybe like uh rinse
some of the froth or pull a rug so to
speak and have a really bad summer and
nobody would care as long as they’re
back up in October before the
election yeah I um that would be a good
master plan if you had any confidence
that the government could master plan
things like that I’m of the opinion that
they can barely tie their shoes most of
the time so like putting Master plans in
place is is pretty challenging um I do
have a smart friend in the industry who
actually thinks the master plan uh is is
a bit broader and it’s that you know
illegal immigration will um you know
rise and then voter uh voter um
registration and laws will be more LAX
like they were sort of last cycle and
that’s how the Democrats are going to
brought in brought in their base but I
don’t know there’s there’s a lot of
speculation on out there about how
they’re going to win this because I mean
if you’re a college student right now or
you’re a younger voter I mean the voter
turnout last um in in
2020 uh was the highest for the Youth
that it’s been since uh the last 40
years so do we think we’re going to see
that same turnout now like I can’t
imagine a college age student or a young
Professor being excited to go vote for
Biden like how get excited I just don’t
think anyone wants to cares at all I
think that’s the move direction we’re
moving in but
yeah yeah exactly uh but I think the
Trump people care more right like the
Biden people are just kind of like ah oh
man the best worst choice you know it
just doesn’t really get people to run
out and
vote yeah there’s there’s no like
hardcore Biden supporters there’s
anti-trump voters exactly exactly um and
how powerful is that that base right I I
don’t know if it’s that big but you know
all us being equal we know at least
within crypto a trump Victory while
whatever you feel about him and his
politics would be likely pretty positive
for the
industry um up and above you know having
a red Senate um you know or Red House
you know that would that would be strong
too and you know our local Senator here
in Massachusetts hopefully she gets
taken down by John Deon but um very very
unlikely I
think are you going to consensus by
chance yeah yeah we have to meet up I’m
doing a fundraiser with metal law man
for John on the 30th I’ll send you the
details but yeah I mean listen I don’t
know if it’s a long shot or not my
opinion is that even if he loses he
spends a hell of a lot of money making
her look like an [ __ ] for the next
six to seven months so that’s
good that is all I’ve wanted for the
past 10 years um yeah I I I sometimes
forget that you’re actually living under
her thumb more directly than the rest of
us although I don’t think uh your
senator really impacts what happens in
your state directly but
um let’s talk about actual narrative
then like what are you guys is it still
rwa and you know uh building on bitcoin
are these still the narratives that are
going to start popping off in the fall
or did they preempt the cycle and they
were kind of like a defi summer a year
or two
early yeah so let’s let’s run through
these quickly so almost everything
that’s being built on bitcoin right now
is essentially a cash grab Andor a scam
there’s like 100 projects that are
building right now there’s maybe three
of them that are real uh I was looking
at the
githubschool like if it wasn’t being
already built in 2020 21 or 2022 on B
Bitcoin or it wasn’t an early seed then
it’s a cash grab and a scam maybe it was
even before 2023 but anything that
started being built you know after
ordinals popped off was just people
coming over from ethereum who like
thought this was a better chance to you
know do a prale or something totally
yeah exactly I mean we’ve had projects
that have reached out to us and have
been like oh we’re doing this like dpin
focused AI thing and you’re like okay
interesting and then they come back to
you like six months later suddenly
they’re in Bitcoin you’re like well okay
this is same team same project it’s like
it’s amazing how but but this goes back
to what I said earlier right there’s
this hot ball of VC money out there
that’s trying to find a home and it’s
not even just like the bigger VCS it’s
like the smaller guys who feel like
they’re missing out like the VC
syndicates and angels and whatever so
like there’s going to be a lot of [ __ ]
funded and great I mean there some you
throw something at the wall it might
stick but yeah a lot of the stuff in the
BC BTC ecosystem you know not going to
work out some will and I’m excited about
that but a lot of it won’t rwas bare
market products are you going on chain
to get 10 to 15% private credit taking
smart contract risks like getting yields
no same thing with real estate which is
why it hasn’t happened in the past same
thing with like private equity which is
why it hasn’t happened in the past RW to
me are a next cycle thing up and above
like treasuries like awesome I can get
some treasury yield and that’s important
for people who are not in the US like I
can go open up a brokerage account and
buy some treasuries in the US like you
can’t do that offshore great I get that
rest of the rwa stuff like no thanks
social F another big theme right people
want the next social network on J and
forecaster I thought that had died by
the way I thought like frch had died but
now they are dropped here so we’re back
right same thing frch I I it’s a great
way to Again Farm VC money but I don’t
think growing a social network is
ridiculously hard as we know I mean
there we’ve seen a bunch try to
integrate with telegram too the ton
ecosystem is generally interesting I
haven’t explored it enough but social
extremely bearish on still I mean the
most boring thing and the most thing the
thing we’re still bullish on is the
thing that has like very clear token
incentives which is deep in like it
solves the cold start problem for
enormous networks that need enormous
resources and that’s like if that’s
where we are for now great and up and
above that hey we’re solving uh the
problem of um you know Financial rails
across the world through stable coins
those are two enormous use cases like we
don’t have to get like I think we’re
trying to attack everything at once like
oh we need to every single ver every
cycle every cycle I guess then the
question is if we do have a repeat of
the cycle what will have the whether
long-term value I’m not talking about
but shortterm what will have the huge
like nft type pop or the huge you know
metaverse when Facebook rebranded to
meta kind of Pop I mean we saw it with
AI I don’t think Ai and crypto or ready
to be married I think they’re literally
still on their first date so and it’s
not going that great um um but uh you
know way down the road maybe they’ll uh
find a match together but the narrative
popped right you had every coin that was
even superficially AI because Nvidia
went up they all went up I mean is that
a real like are we gonna see more of
those like sort of like
buckets you bought nap didn’t
you I did I
um dude I was I was eyeing them and
there was one that had the wrap jacket
and I was like at least that’s kind of
cool and then it got bought and I moved
on with my life
nfts I feel like were so bad they’re
good again you had people talk about
like okay pfps and then no these are the
financial rappers for anything and
everything that can be traded in the
future we’re gonna have movie tickets
and plane tickets and you know land as
nfts which you know maybe we’ll get to
someday but we’re not there yet but I
think people are and people are trading
now speculative nfts on bitcoin on base
whatever you know my thesis for buying
an ape is one I mean they were like the
all-time low they’ve sort of ever been
and if you think about you know us
circling back to okay ethereum is
massively oversold we’re going to get
back to the two or three things that uh
you know are OG ethereum nfts and that’s
Bitcoin or sorry apes and punks you know
they just seem like a a decent place to
be I mean at the end of the day an nft a
pfp nft is just buying you know digital
Rolex and what other digital Rolex will
be as OG as as those two uh so it’s
either between that or a punk and I was
not spending that much money on a punk
so on to expensive I’m literally looking
at Apes right now um I mean floor is
back down to 14 eth with eth obviously
getting a little beat up so you’re
talking about 40 Grand I joked at the
very very top of the last bull market
that AP Ted me I said I’d buy one when
they were 25 Grand so now we’re like 41
or 42 so I I don’t know if I’m ready yet
but I don’t think they’re G to get there
I think I get front run by
that yeah I you know I just think of
these things still as like leveraged eth
right now and if you if you think this
is like a local low it’s a pretty
compelling case I don’t know they’re
doing some I don’t follow it too closely
but I guess they’re doing some changes
with Yuga labs and all that stuff it’s
still seems like really weird to me that
a company owns like these Assets in IP
but I don’t know we’ll see man fingers
fingers crossed I gotta gota pay for uh
stuff for the kids somehow so your
college got paid for then you’re gonna
have to sell your AP then you’re gonna
have to sell your AP and they’re going
to kick you out and you’re never going
to be able to ape again you won’t be
allowed at the ape Country Club and you
won’t be allowed to start a band with
three other Apes that you own the IP for
because and you won’t be able to join
timin’s record label that was started
with Apes last cycle if we want to think
about all the insanity that happened
with Apes last year or three years two
or three years ago someone posted Justin
Bieber’s portfolio and it had like a
bunch of apes and doodles and all this
other stuff and it was down like
99.9% not that he cares but uh yeah all
these people who bought these things
last cycle was just chopped up brutal
but if you think we’re going up I mean
nfts are plays so yeah I think nfts will
do well God damn we ran out of time that
sucks uh guys follow Tom everything that
he’s doing as I said one of my uh
favorites always to have on here um and
one of the best analysts in the game so
when you talk about all these narratives
being trash it makes me uh just pay less
attention to them which is good because
I agree I think it’s just like we’re
gonna get these bubbles but like if
we’re having this same conversation
three or four years from now 99% of the
stuff that everyone was excited about
now will be down 90% in my opinion
agreed good chatting as always Scott sad
man thank you so much catch you on
crypto Town Hall in I guess 45 minutes
oh so yeah see you in 45 minutes hear
you in 45 minutes awesome man guys
follow him all right guys Tom as usual
offering amazing perspective I like
having guests who are pragmatic and
aren’t gonna blow meme smoke straight up
your butthole and tell you how rich
you’re going to be if you do the dog
with face beans ah God we’re so dumb in
this crypto place so [ __ ] dumb like
we can talk about Larry thinkink on one
hand then be like cat with ball sack
it’s the [ __ ] future in of
community makes my braid H but uh while
we’re uh while we’re um [ __ ] on
things I don’t want to do that I want to
be super nice because I have obviously
Andrew and Tillman in the back we’re
going to bring them on they love meme
points their favorite thing both of
these guys uh are going to actually come
on today as salana pfps uh we won’t see
their face it’s going to be talking uh
there board AP band but before that of
course talking to guys about Debbie guys
they’ve been a sponsor now for three
long months amazing we’ve talked about
it endlessly for those who are forced
into the ESG narrative these guys have
solved that with the world’s fastest
smartest most scalable and affordable
layer one guys haven’t been paying they
uh paying attention they’ve got adoption
for governments huge license in France
that nobody else got working with some
of the biggest companies in the world
and founded by you know former head of
us defense intelligence agency uh the
adventure of the kingle CIO of Starbucks
pretty badass no affiliate link no
nothing just go look at them and make me
look like uh you guys are awesome and
that they’re awesome all right guys now
it’s time to remove uh the board apes
and bring on the other board AP where
are your pfps guys you promised me I’m
just I’m I’m instinctually a board ape I
kind of look like one so I’m good you
know I’m good you’ve never seen that
board but yes I
[Laughter]
yeah valid point if any if I had to
ascribe uh the board AP Persona to
anyone who wasn’t a pfp yeah I mean guys
first I mean we’re GNA talk about
obviously Arch public uh I dedicated an
entire newsletter to it yesterday
something I’ve effectively never done in
960 something issues which would show
people how much I actually believe in it
after seeing the results of the back
testing but first I mean Bitcoin here is
61,000 Andrew you were just pissed off
at John Reed Stark on Spaces yesterday
you’re just making fun of him for
overseeing made off you were ripping on
him we got some anger in the market I
mean do you think that uh we could see
some some lower prices here as the ETF
demand cools uh um I think you know I I
I’m not surprised at all that the Hong
Kong demand is is is uh tepid at best
and kind of a joke at worst I I
mentioned it um a week ago that you know
Larry Fink gets up and has you know more
Bitcoin for breakfast than the entire
Hong Hong Kong ETF Market in total right
so that that’s not a surprise you know
it’s not I I I agree with you Scott that
there’s going to be chop uh probably for
a few months but the narratives don’t
change um The Narrative still exists
Larry think still exists and you know
Morgan Stanley is going to come online
um at the end of May um that’s two
trillion dollars in assets so the longer
term story stays the same but but your
your your narrative about chop um for a
period of time I think I think makes
sense yeah I I’m literally dying reading
the comments by the way now so I have to
bring one up which has nothing to do
with you guys got to ask we being
compensated to talk favorably about
salana you guys were in the back to do
you think that I was talking favorably
about salana no is that was your take on
what’s happening on salana that I was
saying like imagine thinking I get paid
to make fun of their meme coins and [ __ ]
on it and say it’s
garbage never a
moment I I look over there it’s so
entertaining but I’m like are are we
doing the same show I don’t know I don’t
know anyway so yes I I think that the
chop narrative makes a lot of sense I’ll
probably be wrong because anyone who’s
predicting things over more than a four
to six hour period usually is except for
of course uh your high frequency trading
algorithm which crushed it this month up
10.6% since we started talking in a
single month so the $10,000 portfolio
would now be without compounding ,600 is
dollar correct yeah correct we actually
um let’s talk about emotion for a second
because I want to chime in on the whole
B Bitcoin front every Market is nothing
more than just emotions right and I love
seeing where we are in the Bitcoin space
right now because there’s a lot of
emotions and I think that’s the
indicator of why we’re getting the chop
uh you know the rocket ship of Wall
Street has to be fueled with the with
the tear of retail and um uh you know I
I read this I love when people make
comments too Scott and crypto Vega
commented before the show started I sold
everything I had every coin I own is
gone I’m completely out of crypto CTO
currency I can’t take it anymore
aggressive dumping manipulation
everything is so intense crypto is over
I am out I am very glad to meet you life
has dreams each is wonderful and so when
you read something like that you
favorable you well yeah exactly you go
man the chops working because that’s the
liquidity pool that Wall Street needs to
continue to chop through so that it can
take the bags to where the the you know
where they want to take them you have to
have lots of chop before you have
explosive moves is the point so you know
I I I look at it regardless of whether
we go down or not there’s two systems at
play here in the bit Coast Bitcoin space
one system is is greed which is what we
have been talking about this morning
it’s investment in Bitcoin to try to
capture a return uh the second is
necessity with isn’t going to wne as
much as greed is necessity is if you’re
in a a developing country and you need
Bitcoin to run your business that is uh
going to continue to grow and you’re
going to see a rising tide float All
Ships which going to bring in more
speculation and because there’s a scarce
commodity at play here you have to
create shakeouts you have to have large
periods of intense violent U channeling
so that people people get lots of fear
and lots of greed uh in them so you have
you know really A house divided right
now but what’s funny to me is is it’s
the it’s the highest price that we’ve
ever seen this type of consolidation I
mean you take imagine imagine going back
three months I’ll give you six if you’re
really and saying bitcoin’s at 61,000 in
April what would you do for that yeah be
freaking out didn’t swing to 45,000 in a
vient ShakeOut like in years past and
Cycles past we would have hit all-time
highs probably skyrocketed through it
but then crash to 45,000 and and you
know we’re getting much much more
controlled measured moves in my opinion
so good Segway into trading automation
uh because emotion is the enemy here
right so when you’re in a position and
you’re sitting in front of your computer
and you have your finger on the mouse
you are in a bad place to be making
decisions unless you have a blindfold on
and you’re not watching the charts which
in keeps you from making the decisions
and clicking the mouse when you need to
you know all of the things that you have
to be aware of when you’re live trading
I’ve always Jed that for the first for
the first few uh first few years in
crypto uh or trading specifically but
it’s definitely in crypto whatever you
are about to do do the opposite exactly
C trade counter trade yourself you make
money George castanza effect that’s what
it is if I do the opposite of what I
think I should do I’m going to be
successful you know well and to that
point we actually we haven’t taken a
trade in either one of the Gateway
products which is our lowest tier our
entry tier which gets people to
understand what trading automation is
that it resides on your computer it’s
user-driven completely that your money
is yours it stays in your broker account
you have complete access to it we don’t
trade it all those things are the
intended uh design of us to teach people
by getting involved in the Gateway
program but we have a lot of different
strategies that you can if you’re a high
Networth individual and you want to join
our coners program we can expose you to
dozens and dozens of strategies to to to
really give you a basket of of automated
strategies to play with but like for
example we took a trade this morning
oddly enough and we’re we’re up in the
trade I don’t know how it’s going to go
but I’m here on the the um the podcast
with you and I do not have to be
monitoring and I do not have to be
emotionally vested in making sure that
this goes well I came up with the logic
and the math of what I wanted from a
parameter perspective months ago and I
set that into motion and I get to remove
myself now because I have somebody
that’s disciplined in the form of
automation sitting there waiting to make
the right trade instead of getting bored
if I sit there all day every day looking
for the right setup most of the time I
get bored and start entering positions
that I shouldn’t have or I start fudging
my rules a little bit going like hey it
fits three of the four criteria but not
the four you know because human nature
is human nature and that’s the beauty of
Automation and that’s what we want to
show everybody is you can set up what
you want automation to achieve for you
way before the emotion gets involved and
then you just let it run and you go
check afterwards and if you want to
tweak it you can tweak it but you’re not
doing it in the moment where the
mistakes are made so you know that it’s
the true uh statement against any Market
is that emotion is the number one enemy
whether it’s fear or greed that’s
typically what’s getting you in or out
of positions and that’s a bad way to to
play any Market because you can’t be
disciplined enough to stick to your
strategy you can talk to the best
traders in the world and they will say I
break my own rules and it always bites
me every time yeah yeah yeah you guys
sent me some screenshots so I’ve got the
uh periodical daily Returns the
performance summary and of course this
incredible Equity curve yeah so that’s
the equity curve and as you can see I
like to show this because it’s not a
straight line you can’t go straight up
and that’s one of the things that people
are you know upset about Bitcoin for
example is that they want it to continue
to just go straight up the the whole
time and you have to have these
pullbacks so so that you can reassess
reconfigure and and start to move
towards those those big liquidities
again so if you look right there the
draw Downs are where you take a couple
of negative trades in a row uh and then
the green dots are the positive trades
and all we’re trying to do is to remove
the emotion play by the same rules every
day and remove the time commitment that
those typically come hand inand with so
that you can be doing what want to do
and you can set something in motion that
uh you believe in and that you want to
be acting on your behalf and we’ve got
now it down to a a science where you can
do this completely hands off um you can
actually have um another firm that’s
partnered with trade station manage your
your automated strategies for you so you
don’t even have to manage the strategies
themselves you can have somebody that’s
a licensed person do that
for I can’t believe admitting that they
were down trades like what’s wrong with
you guys yeah yeah supposed to only all
trading Bots and all people who are
selling things are supposed to only win
like if you don’t show um you know the
negativity associated with any strategy
it’s a scam pure and simple um if if if
you don’t show that if you don’t show
days or weeks um that that have have
down moments um it’s a scam and listen
we’ve got it to a point um with our
company and people that sign up with us
um and thank you to everybody that has
it’s been a it’s been a an absolute Rush
of folks over the last couple months um
where you simply open an account you
deposit your money and then you let the
algorithm work for you you don’t have to
buy a computer you don’t have to sit at
it you don’t have to look at it you
don’t have to monitor it you don’t have
to monitor your you know Wi-Fi speed you
don’t have to do any of that stuff um we
have an you know a a situation where it
simply sign up and allow the algorithm
to do what it was designed to do so um
people are loving it and what we’re
doing for our customers is we’re getting
them started with a a couple of pieces
of Automation and uh we’re letting them
learn a little bit about what that looks
like and then inevitably we’re having
them they’re coming back and going I
want more and and so what what happens
is is because the time commitment
doesn’t go up at all by adding another
automated strategy to your portfolio you
can continue to add them and continue to
add profitability without any
incumbrances from from the time side of
things so like if I said to you Scott I
want you to trade 40 symbols every
morning manually that’s impossible you
can’t do it no one can but we could put
a hundred pieces of automation on a
hundred different symbols and it’s the
exact same execution as if we were
running one so uh it’s just a Force
multiplier that’s really really hard to
ignore once you’ve had it in your
possession and you’ve and you’ve
actually utilized it so uh we we
encourage everybody at the very least
come in and try the $99 a month product
the intention of that is to get you
experiencing something you’ve never
experienced before complete user-driven
automation us broker dealer complete
sovereignty in that relationship and um
the highly uh liquid alternative asset
it’s or vehicle it’s like you can pull
your money out every single day you’re
you sleep in cash every single night so
our automation has uh end of day exits
the Futures Market gives you incredible
leverage for for free if you have ever
traded on Leverage before most markets
charge you for that leverage and it’s
expensive um if you trade Futures and
you sell before the closing bell all of
the leverage that you use for intraday
is at no cost to you so there ‘s this
huge stick that you can use to move the
boulder for yourself at no cost and
automated strategies can have all those
uh parameters set so that when the end
of the day closing bell happens it
doesn’t matter whether it’s your at your
computer it’s getting you out of all the
positions so that you can sleep in cash
and wake up the next day with a fresh
perspective of do I want to turn it on
or do I want to turn it off it’s
literally your decision every day that’s
how simple it is right so it only took
two trades last month is that common
that’s low uh typically we see about
four to six with those two starting
strategies we have strategies that take
12 to 20 a day um so it just depends
upon what your bank role is and how much
you can put in your trade station
account um depends upon how many
strategies you can run and how large
those strategies are it’s all about um
how whether you can afford to buy the
Futures Contract um that and what those
prices are Jeff says it actually sounds
complicated it’s not I promise you I
mean if you if you were willing to spend
like an hour or two of your life to make
sure that you know what you’re doing
before you let it run indefinitely then
I guess you can call it complicated but
they explained it to me and I’m dumb and
I don’t even have the right kind of
computer and Andrew sent me an email and
five minutes later I was set up on a Mac
uh when it was supposed to be yeah it’s
not hard yeah you don’t even to be
truthful with you it is complicated but
it’s complicated like an iPhone comp
complicated that’s what I mean you just
got to get the there’s a little slight
learning curve but once you’re there
it’s running I man yeah exactly and and
serves you good the day you open the box
and the day you open it up and turn it
on it’s it’s very intuitive and it’s
very hands-off is the point I I can’t
stress this enough because that’s a
that’s a really good comment that you
brought up um I can’t stress this enough
that over the past three months we have
effectively taken all the complication
out it’s opening an account deposit your
money the algorithm works again I can’t
stress this enough there are no other
steps okay there there just aren’t so um
you just we were on with a on a call
yesterday with a guy um again who came
from your newsletter and when I said
again it’s it’s completely hands-free
he’s like man I was hoping that you
would say that and I just picked up my
phone and I said this is how you handle
our algorithm this is it you just simply
look at your balance each day that’s all
you do you do nothing else and so um I
don’t know doesn’t seem complicated to
me once again forgetting that people on
Twitter can’t see it in the description
first of all the arch.com t h e a r c h
p ubl l
i.com uh it’s in the description if
you’re watching on YouTube and that’s
how you spell it if you’re watching on
Twitter or you can read my whole
newsletter about it yesterday which I
highly recommend which I’m now going to
show you guys which I wasn’t intending
to um but yeah it’s not hard but I saw a
question just pop up that says Where can
we learn about it we we encourage each
of you to schedule a a zoom call with us
there’s links on our website where by
which you can we can jump on a zoom call
we can share our screens we can get you
um you know really comfortable with with
what we’re presenting so that you can
see and ask questions and and really get
a deep dive so we’d love to meet you
oneon-one and we’d love to you know kind
of hold your hand through learning about
automated trading yeah we we want
people we we want people to do their due
diligence because you know we started
this journey with a real focus on
liquidity right so the fact that you can
deposit money into your account and and
two days later you say I don’t know if
I’m ready to do this hit a button and
your your money comes right back account
yeah so yeah you know trade trade
station is our broker dealer of choice
uh they um are very supportive of what
we’re doing I’ve been fortunate enough
to speak with several their SE Suite
Executives at conferences um they
believe in automation their entire
platform is built to receive automation
so to say that you’re going to have
support is the understatement of the
century and the fact that they awesome
trade station knows what we’re doing you
will go into a private customer queue
where they know you’re trading
automation uh they they can help you
from the back end like we can’t we are
not the broker dealer we’re the software
provider um but they absolutely are
us-based and when you call them there’s
somebody that speaks English that picks
up and can serve you in the manners that
are needed when money’s on the line and
you’re in a trade and you’re stressed
you know those types of things if you
need them they’re they’re there for you
crying Boomer Jeff who hates everything
and amazingly has four out of seven
letters in his last name are vowels he
says I have to admit you guys seem
pretty legit if we got Jeff uh even
thinking about it we’re doing good he’s
a boomer like us and he’s he’s generally
angry he also wants to know if you guys
ever did used to do Duck
Dynasty no but I’d really be sort of an
uncle Sai character right you never know
what’s gonna happen what’s gonna come
out of my mouth you know we learned that
on Spaces yesterday yeah yeah you did
realize that on spes yesterday look man
the the I can’t I can’t handle Homer I
can’t handle thepop well it was a tough
morale moment when we missed that made
off Ponzi scheme has a tough spot for us
we we I’m like are you serious come on
man yeah it was pretty funny all right
we gotta go I’ll probably see on Spaces
I won’t bring John Reed Stark or anyone
triggering for you I’d hate for you to
like Miss A night’s sleep over the Deep
Emotions of you’re feeling guys once
again it is
theu.s these guys you have nothing to
lose you will literally talk to these
guys yep right yeah thanks pretty
awesome yeah pretty awesome all right
guys that’s all we got for you today see
you on Spaces at 10:15 of course back
tomorrow morning 9:00 a.m. eastern
standard time tman Andrew have a great
one thanks guys see you guys you bet
[Music]

I am joined by Tom Dunleavy, Venture and Angel Investor, and Partner at MV Capital, to uncover what’s going on with Bitcoin and crypto. My friends from The Arch Public, Andrew Parish, and Tillman Holloway, are joining in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio (hint: it’s been doing really well!).

Tom Dunleavy: https://twitter.com/dunleavy89
Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus
Tillman Holloway: https://twitter.com/texasol61

Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/

►► Sponsored by DevvE
DevvE is a next-generation cryptocurrency – DevvE addresses Bitcoin’s most significant weaknesses—regulatory compliance, energy consumption, costs and speed!
👉 Follow DevvE on X for Updates: https://twitter.com/DevveEcosystem
👉 Join the DevvE Telegram group to stay in the know! https://t.me/DevveOfficial

►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!
👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/

►► The Arch Public
Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!
👉https://thearchpublic.com/

►►OKX
SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!
👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER

►►TRADING ALPHA
READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘25OFF’ FOR 25% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK.
👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker

►►NGRAVE
This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use.
👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd

►►NORD VPN
GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL – 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY!
👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets

Follow Scott Melker:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker
Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe
Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c

#Bitcoin #Crypto #trading
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:15 ETFs
7:00 Billions to be unlocked
11:20 How to approach this market
20:10 Cash grabs
24:00 NFTs
28:36 Devve
29:20 AI trading bot update

The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.