Crypto Market Crash | Will Bitcoin Drop To $50K?

Crypto Market Crash | Will Bitcoin Drop To $50K?

the crypto market today looks like a
small dumpster fire that’s inside a
bigger dumpster that is also on fire on
a day when we likely have some hawkish
tone from the FED Jerome pal
fomc today what all seemed like
Tailwinds seeming like headwinds today
at the moment will we continue to
correct where will the bottom be is this
normal are we in a brand new be market
and what’s happening behind the scenes I
have one of my favorite guests Josh
Frank here to discuss that and likely
more because I never know what we’re
going to end up discussing and of course
Texas West capital on the back half of
the show you don’t want to miss this one
guys we’re g to talk about the pain
we’re going to talk about the blood
let’s
go let’s
[Music]
what is up everybody I’m Scott mker also
known as The Wolf of all streets before
we get started please subscribe to the
channel and hit the like button even if
you don’t like the market you’ll do it
for me gonna go ahead and just bring on
Josh
now hey man great Market terrific um but
you said you’re not paying attention
because you’re in such pain from the
Knicks game last night awful awful I I
can’t even I I I just I haven’t been
able to function for the last like 12
hours it’s good honestly I think the
dicks did you a favor if they kept you
uh from watching price action or seeing
what was going on in the market today
obviously a quick look at coin market
cap whole lot of red 12 the one hour
look at the one hour it’s all about
perspective it’s all about perspective
nice bounce actually I think that this
is a local bottom I can tell people why
later but I’m seeing a lot of signals I
don’t think it’s bottom bottom
necessarily but local bottom uh yeah but
I mean if 11% look at that outperforming
Bitcoin the last seven days but then you
get down to the salana down 22% Doge
down 22% as in a week Sheba 21%
Avalanche
18% look at
Tron look at Tron up
4.47% on the week just killing it
crushing it no comment I mean you know I
will say a lot of people have to buy
Tron I guess to use usdt un Tron which
is the most popular place to use usdt so
maybe that’s the reason could not
possibly be any sort of other reason
like you know somebody holding up price
or anything like
that no comment still no comment I tried
to give you the bait but yeah man we got
Bitcoin down you know 58,000 bottomed uh
below
57,000 today uh I just took a look and
more than half of the people who have
bought the Bitcoin spot ETF are now
underwater um we we’ve seen sustained
outflows there so I guess we’ll see if
those buyers are paperhand or Diamond
handed and if you take a look I mean I
mean even just quickly at a chart let me
pull up the right one I mean it’s a big
uh gap of air down to about 52,000 to
50,000 right there’s just kind of
nothing nothing there yeah I think it’s
worth talking about the ETF and what’s
going on as well so let do that I mean I
think you know I think there were a lot
of
misconceptions that the ETF purchases
from the beginning were institutional
and they were not right so all along all
of these purchases have been primarily
driven by retail so you know I I I’m
speaking with some of the larger ETF
issuers and you see that in the 13f
filings right so um you know the
different fund managers have to file 13
FS quarterly where they show their
positions that they have in public
markets and you know what we saw is that
there weren’t that many institutions in
the ETF to from the from the from the
get-go but I mean the the the numbers
that I was hearing from the issuers
going back a month was that 90% of their
flows so far had been from retail right
and so um you know I I think I think
it’s just something that’s important to
note is is is it’s more retail money
that Flo flood into the market but the
the floodgates of institutional Capital
which we’ve talked about as being the
really big impetus for major price
movement is going to take time and that
still hasn’t happened yet right and just
because we’re seeing some outflows now
doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen
but I think it’s just important to note
like what kind of happened in the market
here is people got very euphoric about
the ETF approval and I think rightfully
so um and you know lawsuits that were
won against the US government and number
number of other things retail flooded
into the market and then in classic
crypto fashion everyone thinks they
missed the boat on bitcoin they start
throwing their money into other things
and then they go further and further and
further down the risk curve and once we
start getting into things like throwing
money at you know Joe Bowden and you
know Gary gaser coin right that’s
usually a signal right it’s some form of
a signal that you know all right people
are going further down the risk curve
but if you think about what drove the
last B market not just from a token
perspective but from an equity
perspective from a valuation perspective
a lot of that was driven by real
institutional Capital entering the space
whether that be from Sovereign wealth
funds we obviously saw tamask and GIC in
Singapore led the last rounds for fire
blocks for chain analysis for a lot of
the big Falcon X for a lot of the big
crypto companies we also saw in Canada
we saw Quebec and uh Ontario teachers
and other um you know other allocators
then Canada get involved in the market
right and in order for this Market to do
well and I think to sustain itself
obviously we want retail to come back in
full for and I don’t think that’s
happened yet right I think a lot of
people that are in the market are the
same people and we can go through some
data on like Twitter activity and some
kind of gauges for that if you want um
but I think we need to start seeing
funds raise more capital and so one of
the biggest things for me one of the
biggest things that I look at is
basically Trends in how much Capital
funds are raising and we actually track
this um and I can kind of share my
screen here yeah go ahead so you know
this is not 100%
complete but we’ve seen some big raises
announced I mean isn’t andrewson doing a
billion I know Galaxy I think had a huge
raise I know the DNA guys we have the
data here right and so what I’m kind of
looking at is so this is just if you are
a US reporting fund so a lot of these
funds by the way are report to the US
but also have feeder funds that are
offshore right so they’re receiving
funds from multiple different directions
but what you could see here is basically
the the the total amount of capital rais
and the value of the last rise so DBA
just announced 18 million um you know
blockchain Builders whatever this is
raise they raise another $4 million so
there’s some money 1kx rais another $153
million um so there is money flowing in
keep in mind that these filings
are annual um you know poly chain just
raised about a hundred million do for
their latest Venture fund across these
two different um entities I can see that
500 million Galaxy down there yeah but
this is the salana thing this is SPV for
salana I believe to buy OTC salana yeah
at a discount yeah yeah so so but the
point being is what we want to start
seeing is and and look some of this data
is delayed right because it’s it’s an
annual filing right you basically file a
form D which is the first time you file
that you’ve raised capital and you say
like okay we’re filing we just raised
$50 million from 20 investors and then
every year you file an amended form D
called a DA where you update the amount
of money that you rais so for example if
somebody last raised six months ago
they’re not going to file for a while
right they’re not going to have to file
for a while so this this data is a
little bit delayed what I’m really
looking for is you know for this Market
to really take off we need to see funds
raising a ton of money right and if
funds ra you know it’s both VCS and
hedge funds right VCS to kind of lay the
seed lay the groundwork of crazy
valuations and crypto stupidity that we
all come to know and love and were
seeing which we were seeing in the a
month month and a half right and and and
why were we seeing that right why seeing
that the reason we’re seeing that is if
you look at the market right the only
way to make money in crypto scalably is
with L1 and L2 investing if you’re a big
fund because if you think about it all
of these big Equity deals right whether
that be into some of the companies that
I mentioned earlier some of these other
crypto companies that raised over
billion dollar valuation right or even
the hundreds of millions of dollars no
investors have had an exit if we look at
Acquisitions in crypto all time the
largest Acquisitions you’re talking like
Cipher Trace by MasterCard for for a few
hundred million curv by PayPal for a few
hundred million uh you know like
coinbase has bought a couple things for
15502 200 million dollars but there
really haven’t been the big the M mining
space has had some public listings but
outside of the mining space it’s it’s
really coinbase on on the on the exit
side and so if you’re an investor and
you’re looking at the space you know as
an investor you want to get a return
right and and if if you’re like look I’m
going to give an equity company money
and I don’t know what the path to an
exit is it’s really hard to underwrite
that deal but if you look on the liquid
token side right if you’re a VC you
could put your money in an L1 or L2 and
clearly those are the ways to get scale
right and that’s why we see all the
largest raises that have happened are
you know whether that be manad whether
earlier it wasu and apos and you know
there
there’s about don’t forget EOS yeah well
EOS EOS much earlier but I think that
was before that Nar even cut cut off on
I mean t telegram when they originally
raised obviously they returned the money
now T is doing very well but um the only
way to the only way to get scal is to
invest in L1 and l2s and so that’s why
you see these gigantic checks being
deployed because if you’re Paradigm for
example or you’re in dreon and you’ve
raised a few billion dollars right you
can’t go like how many di5 projects you
to invest in like three 300 di5 projects
$20,000 at a time right exactly the only
way and and so I think we’re gonna
continue to kind of see that Trend and
the really important thing for investors
and and and I think we’re actually going
to see the reason that I’m bullish
longer term is I think that investors
are going to have really good uh returns
and really good dpis so basically
distributed to paid in capital the
amount of money that they’re returning
to LPS and the reason I say that is if
you look at a lot of these new deals
that are going live like worldcoin a lot
of crypto funds got in the seed round at
a couple hundred million valuation that
thing is trading at let’s say 50 billion
or 60 billion today so they made a three
100x you know some people got you know
like ZK sync manad say all of these
projects right if you I mean we can we
can pull up the list of investors in
some of these things you can see the
funds that are going to return uh going
to return capital I can I can pull it up
which is wild because it’s once again
the old crypto I don’t want to say scam
but like retail just gets destroyed and
the VCS and early insiders are actually
making a ton of
money yeah I mean like you can look at
like you know like here um for example
on worldcoin as an example there’s up
yet your screen’s not up yet yeah no no
there there’s a lot of these things
right so like we can see here like you
know coin fund got in on the series a of
of worldcoin um uh Pipers sphere got in
on the series a multicoin got in on the
series a right so you know the series a
was I think I think it was it was a
billion dollar valuation worldcoin today
the token let go the
token you need it yeah is trading at a $
45 billion valuation so you 45 extra
money so for example if you put $5
million in that $5 million today granted
the tokens are not all liquid and we can
look at the vesting schedule but you’re
talking in the range of $225 million and
you might have put $5 million in out
of100 million fund and so the point
being is a a lot of this movement that
we’re seeing with a lot of these tokens
coming out of the gate with really large
launches obviously that’s cooled down a
little bit in the last few weeks right
you’re going to start seeing funds have
great returns and hopefully on the back
of that you’re going to see new
institutional Capital flowing into the
space because funds are going to say
like you know we
returned 10 act on the fund or five Acts
or 20 Acts or whatever and I think
that’s going to send the next wave of
capital in but I think it’s going to be
a little bit delayed but that’s what
that’s I mean that’s not Bitcoin that’s
the rest of the market but we need that
to happen for the market to prop up uh
we need to see that that flow of capital
and that needs to start not from family
offices and high net worth going into
funds not from retail but from real
institutional allocators writing $500
million checks into andreon and and
other funds but Andrew is raising a
billion so I mean they’re going to try
so they believe that the timing is still
there the fact that we’re seeing these
kindar for crypto right so that’s but
have they deployed that I mean to your
point like why
ra FS are majority to in a few years
yeah they have to I wonder how they
deployed four billion I you might know
but I have no idea well they just they
they they um I just saw something that
they just bought a bunch of tokens I I I
I don’t know if that was public so
they’re doing OTC liquid deals to to get
it yeah yeah they’re they’re holding
liquid tokens um I don’t know if this I
think this just went live I think people
apparently they bought $80 million worth
of op tokens out of op’s Treasury
directly that would just came out this
morning um so with a lock with a
two-year locks at a discount right so
um yeah I mean there’s there’s lots of U
there’s lots of ways but yeah I mean
they’re buying liquid tokens in size too
right but that’s good that profit at the
market we need that like if you want
this market to continue we need to see
these flows of institutional capital in
uh it’s not the only thing retail is
very important retail in Korea has done
a great job in moving the market but
we’re not at the point yet where like us
retail is really here um you know when I
I’ll I’ll float you my theory you know
when us retail comes back whenever do
whenever Dogecoin makes a new alltime
high because everyone thought retail was
going to come back when Bitcoin made a
new alltime high then we surpassed it
and it didn’t happen and everyone’s
underwater on nfts and Doge so if we can
get board apes and Doge back to near
alltime highs then the people who were
here before might have interest in
coming back that’s my theory that’s my
theory and so all this meme coin
pre-sale all the things we’re talking
about before that institutional Capital
that you’re mentioning comes in that’s
just more supply of random things being
added to a market that has no more
demand outside the Bitcoin
ETFs yeah I mean here you can see um let
me share this so here’s just and we can
look at Dogecoin too it might be
interesting but here’s uh let me just
zoom in a little bit here’s the red line
is daily tweet volume so you can see you
know spikes in in in Daily tweet volume
and the blue line is 30-day average so
if we look at kind of the peak point
that we got to was significantly Below
in terms of average uh below kind of
where we were at in uh 2021 uh January
was kind of the peak that we saw in
terms of the the the average number of
treats but it’s still relatively high
but you can see obviously this is kind
of going down we can look at Dogecoin
though as a comparison see kind of where
that’s at I haven’t pulled this up yet
um yeah I mean it’s yeah so I think that
is I think that is a really good gauge
for retail and you can see that just
that Spike never never came back no one
Elon mentioned and we’re back baby so
bad I think he has he has mentioned it
yeah does he doesn’t swing it anymore
like he used to because people aren’t
paying attention they’re underwater
they’ve sold and to me that’s where
they’re going to come from so I mean
talking about the cycle and where we’re
at like if you just take a look at a
having cycle there’s no surprise we’re
getting a I think we’re at a 24% total
retrace right now from the top at 74,000
these are still very shallow
retracements relative to previous bull
markets right I think this at 24 23 24
wherever we’re at is the largest or on
par for the three or four that we’ve had
in this bull market but in previous bull
markets they were 30 to 40% and that was
normal so is this just the normal post
having retrace boring summer parabolic
fall that we’ve seen every time I think
it’s just it’s also macro macro is
retracing right I mean the NASDAQ sold
off 2% yesterday right so Bitcoin is not
a risk Bitcoin right now is behaving as
a risk on asset sometimes it behaves as
a risk off asset it depends on people’s
perspective and it depends on who’s in
the market the more institutions in the
market the more it might behave riskof
potentially or uncorrelated more you
know I don’t know it’s it’s it’s hard
it’s hard to tell right now it’s
behaving risk
on yeah I mean April just I I had just
seen this Bitcoin faces worst month
since FTX crashed with ETF demand
cooling 16% in April most since November
2022 so a pretty sign we also doubled
right so you know it’s also healthy to
retrace a little bit on a double I mean
um I mean triple off the bottom or more
or four times off the bottom I year
opened at 42 the year opened at like 42
so we’re still up you know 50% on the
year more and you know here here’s all
the different no not quite 25% yeah
here’s all the different time frames 25%
yeah yeah we’re up 100% on the last 365
days 31% on the year yeah so I yeah is
that yeah 43% February 14% March um and
this is our best run since like 21 I
mean look at all these months in a row
4% 24 9% 9% you know whatever 3%
pullback but then 43 basically moved up
for what seven eight months in a row so
you know pullbacks are and we can look
at correlations as well as kind of
interesting so is nothing here
concerning you then like the fact you
know a lot of people said if we break 60
it’s the end of the bull market and then
that matters to me I don’t think that
matters I think what matters is is are
retail going to be interested and our
institutions GNA be interested I mean at
the end of the day I think that matters
more than look I’m thinking in longer
time frames then next week or next month
like yeah Bitcoin can pull back next
month I wouldn’t be surprised it can
continue to pull back but I think the
question is do we see real institutional
flows and I mean look it it takes time
for raas to get approval and to get set
up to offer their clients Bitcoin
exposure takes time for Bitcoin to get
added to a lot of different platforms it
takes time for institutional allocators
to get comfortable with crypto again and
I’m having the conversations with the
Sovereign wealth funds and they are more
interested in crypto like we just saw
for
example one of the Abu Dhabi Sovereign
wealth funds just LED an investment
around they it’s granted it’s a smaller
VC that they have but they let an
investment around for a crypto company
right and so you know at the end of the
day
is the real Capital excited are they
interested in the space you know you
look at the Middle East and Abu Dhabi
and Dubai and other you know other other
regions are creating um you know are are
you know
creating great policy that’s going and
targeting crypto companies moving to
those regions and I think that this the
sovereigns and and and wealthy families
will follow that and the capital will
flow and the capital will follow and I
think that’s I mean that’s going to prop
up the market right if and that’s the
biggest thing to watch like if if one of
these guys polychain multicoin Paradigm
coin fun any of these guys right these
are just examples of names come out and
say we raised a billion dollars or we
raised 500 and you keep seeing that
that’s eventually going to flow down to
tokens right and I think that’s
something to that you want to be able to
front run that Capital deployment cycle
okay so then do you view what’s
happening right now as a buying
opportunity it depends on your time
frame I mean it depends on your time
frame like if your if your if your time
frame is longterm on
bitcoin why not put a little bit in I’m
not saying deploy all your cash but like
and obviously not investment advice but
I I I bought a little bit at this price
you know not a not not a huge amount but
you know me too like I B 10% of the cash
I have set aside for crypto I deployed
today Soh it’s not it’s not a huge
number but it’s is that just into
Bitcoin or you looking at Al coins just
into Bitcoin today yeah yeah because if
you think Bitcoin is going to have more
downside well I think I think there’s
much more downside risk in alts than
there is in Bitcoin I mean I think
everyone pretty much agrees with that
right like I think look alts have more
upside bitcoin’s got more downside so if
you’re concerned about your downside
like Bitcoin is very liquid I can get
into cash the second I need to get into
cash not moving markets and I’m not
moving markets on all coins either right
but the point being is it’s just it’s
it’s it’s it’s a more liquid and less
volatile asset I feel more comfortable
holding and I I mean I I I would
say there is zero doubt in my mind that
Bitcoin will break its all-time high
again like I have no doubt that that’s
gonna happen so yeah same yeah so you
talked about how the main capital goes
into l1’s and l2s because they’re huge
and liquid are there any new useless l1s
and l2s that will probably go up in
price anyways that you’ve seen coming
out I I have no comment on utility of
any of these things but I think there’s
a lot we need we need we need l2s
because we don’t have enough of them so
much demand yeah look there’s there’s
uh look for trying but they can’t all
survive look broadly speaking 90% of
startups fail right I mean it’s a stat
that Everyone likes to throw out right
and so you know look some of these l1s
look there’s an L1 that’s going to
launch this year which is going to
become a top 10 or 20 market cap coin no
idea what it is but I’m sure it’s going
to exist right every cycle we see that
right we see like I think the the last
cycle was polygon Avalanche moved a lot
obviously Sano was kind of within that
cycle and is in this cycle again right
um so we always have you know and then
there’s tokens that had their cycle and
are you know now 100 by market cap right
I mean do you ever do you ever pull up
the Wayback machine on coin market cap
before it’s like it’s literally like my
favorite thing is looking at what the
top 10 was in
2017 let’s look at the top 20 in the
2021 cycle versus now I mean I think
that’s that’s a fun thing to uh to do I
let me see if I can remember where it is
um I I I’ve used a Wayback machine but I
don’t know where that specific so here
so like let’s look at the top 20 that
exist today ton coin I think is the
story of this cycle and I think
rightfully so um and and salana I mean
salana was eight bucks and salana and
salana ton coin and salana I think right
now are the stories of this cycle um you
know I think near has had a lot of
movement because of the AI thing and
others too I mean toss has been gaining
a lot of traction and some other
projects but if we go and we look
at um where is
the historic I can’t remember where it
is now either I’m gonna look too because
I don’t want to his no historical
snapshots here we go all right so let’s
go to like even last cycle so what do we
like we on tweet volume that peak of
last cycle was Jan 21 right so I mean
look at this I mean it’s a
totally I mean EOS was still 15 Theta
was
vchain NE was
19 uh Celsius was
22 God so and then if we if we snap back
to the last cycle which the peak was
probably about January 2018 right I mean
NE was six uh Iota was 10 Dash was 11
right so every cycle
has it’s coins right and so you know
there will be new coins that have their
moment and the have their cycle unlike
you know unlike Equity markets there’s
no Revenue here so there’s nothing
to yeah they’ll have their cycle and
then we’ll be talking in you know
2028 and laughing about how they’re like
200 on that list because there’s some
new shiny objects just shows you how
careful you have to be and your time
frame and expectation yeah I mean that’s
well that’s why like everything is time
frame everything is time frame right
like and also I think one of the biggest
things that people just don’t look at
is look at fully diluted valuation like
you have to look at not the market cap
but for anybody who doesn’t know who’s
listening market cap is the value of all
the tokens that are currently in Supply
but fully diluted valuation is the value
of all the tokens that are currently
live plus all the tokens that will go
live and for example aka the actual full
Supply when everything vests and unlocks
yeah correct like so if we take for
example like um worldcoin as another
example
2.01% of the supply is currently
circulating right and that’s just one
example and there’s other examples Stam
such a me relee they release into low
float and oh my God right but that means
that 50 you’re gonna basically for price
to say the same over time the price
needs to hold constant with 50 times
more tokens being available on the
market 50 times just for price to stay
constant so it’s a really important
metric to look at and I know people say
bullish unlocks and things like that and
yes some unlocks are inconsequential and
look some investors like I know early I
know one of the biggest funds in crypto
has been in avalanche since the Ico and
has never sold and they are one of the
largest holders of avalanche right and
they’re a huge believer in avalanche
there’s others in avalanche and other
projects are the same way so just
because things unlocking doesn’t mean
it’s going to sell but with that said if
you have a token where a 100% of it is
liquid versus a token that 2% of it is
liquid all things equal I would I would
think that the token where 100% is
liquid I would feel more confident that
price is going to stay constant versus
2% of the thing being liquid I mean that
alone probably explains the phenomenon
that you just showed on coin market cap
because those are all up in the top 10
when they’re low float and their market
cap is high but their FTV Market well no
but that’s not fdv that’s market cap on
coin market cap don’t no no I’m just
saying but like all those tokens when
they were at their Peak were low Supply
and high demand and then throughout
theet they’re not showing FTV on coin
market cap they rank by sorry I I know
they’re not showing it I’m just saying
it explains why coins can be hyped at
the top of a list and then with the next
three years as you go into a bare market
and all that Supply releases and there’s
just this constant selling pressure with
minimal demand they end up out of the
top 10 for for market cap or whatever
metric you’re using just kind of
explains the cyclicality of a lot of
these tokens that uh are hyped for very
short period of time and then bleed
out yeah yeah no I mean it’s it’s uh
there’s a I mean we like we can take a
look but I mean there’s there’s there’s
there will be a lot of unlocks coming up
this year I think I actually I uh I
might have a little chart on this I even
have the tie terminals unlocks here no
but but I built the I built something
which shows uh which tokens have the
most unlocks uh uh in aggregate this
year which I think is interesting let me
see if I can make some I’ll make
something very
quick create creating this in real time
that’s what you do yeah guys I’ve showed
these guys a million times this is myh
tie dashboard that I stare at all day
every day all my news and screeners and
they got the great ETF one showing ETF
uh total now uh under well it’s it’s
loading because I have this crap
internet at the moment but uh sub 50
billion you’ll see it come up right here
I it still pretty close to flipping gbtc
crazy gbtc has backed down to 17 billion
now was at 27 so total market cap 48 but
once you get that built let me know I’ll
bring it up yeah I got it I got it here
um so I just I don’t know if you’ve seen
this by the way we have this new tool
where you can write a sentence in
English and it converts it into a SQL
query and outputs data so I asked which
that artificial intelligence that that
is you know intelligence is a stretch
sometimes it works um the uh but here we
can see I mean salana still has a lot of
unlocks this year Aptos arbitrum Jupiter
and these are in US dollar value so keep
in mind some of these tokens are very
large and by like unlocks for Bitcoin
that’s mining rewards right so there’s
still a lot of Bitcoin mining rewards
that are coming to Market I can build
something later if you want to share it
another day with with the community
which is like the percent of Supply as
well but you can see some of the tokens
that have very large amounts of their
token Supply um coming to Market year um
but I think you know yeah the big one
I’m looking at is you know this world
coin number is crazy it’s two billion
plus coming to to Market this year on a
token that’s trading at a liquid market
cap
of uh it’s market cap is 890 million and
there’s two billion coming to Market
this year so
yeah
Sam it’s a lot but but look if worldcoin
partners with open AI which they’re
exploring you know who knows I go to he
owns them both whatever that means uh
you know we’ll see maybe you’ll need
World coins to maybe you’ll need World
coins to pay for oh what if yeah exactly
you need to use your eyeball to use AI
um just quick before I let you go I know
we’re over time but like what’s your
expectation for the next few months or
at least your base case we know nobody
has a crystal ball mine has been boring
and then we start to see some
appreciation get in the fall but yeah
look I think
boring the within the industry talking
to people on a day-to-day basis people
in the industry are not bearish like
they’re not like the like in the last
bare Market post FTX collapse every
single company was so stingy with budget
was afraid to spend money was nervous
about what was going on and right now
we’re not seeing that like we’re just
not seeing that in the market like we’re
not seeing a huge number of traditional
institutions come in I don’t want to get
anybody’s hopes up like we’re not seeing
a large number of new hedge funds or new
participants come in the market but with
that said
like people are are operating as if this
Market is going to continue I mean
that’s what we’re seeing um so yeah for
sure that doesn’t mean that doesn’t mean
that they’re right right but like we’re
we’re we’re being relatively aggressive
from a hiring perspective right now I
mean I think I I wouldn’t be doing that
if I thought that the market was going
to go back into a deep bare market like
it was in post FTX I and look I think it
also depends look the election is coming
up soon I mean we’re getting we’re
getting close to to election to election
day and I think look it doesn’t matter
where you land on the political Spectrum
right but I think this election is
certainly gonna have an impact on the
SEC right and I think it it you know I
think if the odds start looking like
look if if Trump somehow picks v as his
running mate which isn’t going to happen
but if he does right or depending on who
he puts at his running mate depends on
what he comes out and says right and if
he starts to take a big lead could be
really bullish for crypto really bullish
if if the expectation is that the SEC uh
is going to put forth regulation that is
more Pro crypto I mean I think that’s
the biggest thing the election to me is
the single biggest thing or if you know
there’s some change of power in the
Democratic party I’m not saying that
Biden is a change in power but you know
like if there’s a change in policy
towards crypto or anything else that’s
the biggest thing to me like if the US
introduces Pro crypto legislation it is
just like a complete 100% flip the
script GameChanger for the
market absolutely agree well we’ll see
what happens let’s hope uh let’s hope
the Top’s not in forever and we’re all
dead and we’re going to bleed out uh and
be depressed again I don’t think
so I don’t think the more people who do
think so the
better for a bounce yeah yeah and look I
I I I it just depends on your investment
Horizon if you’re investing for next
week maybe don’t put money in alts in
Bitcoin but if you’re if you’re looking
at this as a as a 12mon 24 36 month
investment cycle in your US base you
also pay long-term cap gains versus
short-term cap gains tax right so um you
know I I’m I’m I’m I’m not planning on
selling my Bitcoin and my other crypto
positions anytime soon you’re me both
man all right thanks guys check out uh
Josh of course on Twitter it’s down in
the description
about Jo ID in the Knicks right now I
got nothing interesting to say dude he I
he we we brought him on the right day
because he can be appropriately
pragmatic and bearish and bullish at any
given time but on the wrong day because
he’s so depressed about the Knicks that
he can’t uh give us a accurate appraisal
on the market yeah don’t don’t listen to
my market prediction they’re still up 32
they’re still up 3-2 but they did get
Reggie Millard yeah we got Reggie Miller
yesterday it was terrible it was it was
the most classic Nick I in life I’ve
learned if you have expectations you can
never be disappointed and for the first
time I had real expectations about the
Knicks and it as as a lifelong Nicks and
jets fan I should learn my lesson well
you know welcome to crypto man keep the
expectations crypto and fulltime in
crypto I mean the whole my entire life
Su disappointment right we’re all very
jaded all right man thank you so much
bye and now to look at the charts and
see if uh you should all be depressed as
you’re obviously feeling Chris it’s over
it’s dead again ah yeah you know we
might as well just pack it up and go
home right come back in another few
years straight to zero it’s unbelievable
straight Z no just doing you know what
I’ve been talking about for over a month
now I said uh you know we’re range bound
I said my first uh scenario if we’re
range bound um is to see us get a dip
below it and then you know on The Daily
time frame or so um see a wick back up
or or a a candle down the next day a
candle back up into the range um so
right now we’ve got the breakdown we’re
retesting the um that’s that big Channel
off that you know I’ve shown on many
times before the big Channel off theuh
2022 bare Market low uh so it’s coming
back and retesting that resistance as
support at the moment we just got the
pivots updated on The Daily time frame
um and so the S1 pivot is just down here
on this chart right around 556 or so
557 so if we kep coming down lower I
mean that’s what I’m looking for that’ll
also get us the bottom of this
descending Channel um and then look for
a rally back up into the range um what
we need to see basically is a breakout
impulsive breakout Above This pivot here
on the daily at around
64200 or so depending what chart you’re
looking at but if you can get impulsive
breakout above that that takes you out
through the descending Channel
resistance there and you should be
looking mid 80s at least on the rally
and uh so that’s kind of where we’re at
if we break down again um you know I’ve
already talked about it if we got um we
continue to break down rather than just
kind of dip down and and trap the
breakdown Traders and rally back up we’d
have the 51 to 52,000 range right here
um everybody’s yelling about that range
though it concerns me I mean listen it’s
the most obvious thing ever right I mean
if you look at the weekly that’s the one
place we’ve Consolidated literally on
the move from 38 all the way up it was
the top down here but like how often do
we get the exact area that everybody’s
watching so that means bounce right now
or right here or we go all the way down
to 44 pretty much yeah yeah I mean you
know again it’s the levels are way out
it’s not that difficult right um I you
know people are they losing their damn
Minds online right they’ve been losing
on their mind for over a month now a
month and a half uh and what’s really
happened nothing’s really happened we’ve
just now dipped below they got everybody
promis them you know it has to crash
down to 30,000 or you know the top has
to be in now uh if it broke down below
the below the 59,000 it did oh my God
it’s the end of the world no guys it
isn’t how it works um could it go down
sure but if you’re overly worried about
what price is doing as Scott mentioned
so many times on here and I like to
mention a lot is you got too big of
position size if if you are so concerned
about what price you’ve got too large a
position size you’re too overleveraged
and or you’re not using any kind of
proper risk management if you don’t do
those three things everything’s fine
everything things perfectly fine and
that’s how you make it in trading but
everybody wants to hit a home run every
time they uh every time they swing for
the you know every time they’re up there
they want swing for the fenses and if it
doesn’t and if it doesn’t do it right
away you know they get very very um
upset and and very nervous you know what
are we going to do but right now I mean
you can see right here daily RSI daily
Stoke RSI resetting down into oversold
you can see that volume has dropped off
dramatically through this range we’ve
got a spike of volume now on this break
on this uh on the on the breakdown
through here but again usually this kind
of setup the volume is coming at the
lows of the range not really at the top
of the range so there’s not a lot of
selling going on up here usually in
distribution what you’re going to have
is the selling at the tops of the range
and not a whole lot of buying at the
bottom if you’ve got accumulation or
reaccumulation usually what you’re going
to see is the opposite you’re going to
see more volume at the lows of the range
than what you’re going to see up here at
the top of the range because they’re not
selling they’re buying and so you get
this final when you have a series of
higher or lower highs and lower lows
through the range coming down through
what we call phase B usually you’re
gonna get a spring and that’s the that’s
the the fake out that’s the you know get
people to go short because right here
you can see the price is not making
higher highs so the Market’s still a
little bit heavy on the shorts right the
on the or not um strong enough on demand
so you send it down there to trick them
all into it they all go short you send
it back up then they have to cover then
they have to go long and it Powers it
right back up through so I mean you know
again um that’s the way I’m looking at
it at the moment and we’ll see how it
plays out this Market is moving super
fast by the way because I was pointing
out the other day uh you know you could
get long on bullish Divergence here went
up hidden bearish Divergence was here
now we’re back to finally oversold with
bullish Divergence on the 4 Hour across
a ton I don’t know that this is the
bottom but I think that we could like
get some really nice relief here I mean
you I’m seeing this on a lot of charts I
don’t know if it was on oh and I wanted
to show you this chart too yeah just
because I pulled up the Itchy moku Cloud
for the first time and God knows how
long and look at eth on the weekly here
yeah’s finding support on all three of
these candles and the key Jun right
there but for anyone who doesn’t look a
flat Cloud top like that on a high time
frame is really nice support yeah it
works yeah exactly the flat the flat on
the top if you’re coming back down on it
it works as support um if you’re coming
up from below it works as resistance um
yeah absolutely fantastic
yeah so that that that gave me a little
encouragement certainly in that eth BTC
is bouncing and actually eth I think is
uh has retraced less than Bitcoin um
kind of whole draw down the you know we
got this little breakdown with Bitcoin
the alts haven’t really um haven’t
really done a whole lot I mean they’re
all looking basically the same um these
Dom has dropped actually interestingly
like I just happened to look I I thought
you know maybe it’s the alts that are so
popular like salana those are down so
big and that’s what everyone’s in so the
perception is it Al have done way worse
but actually on this retracement
dominance has dropped for people who
aren’t paying attention so alts as a
whole have not underperformed Bitcoin on
this drop that badly yeah yeah and and
and this is what you’re seeing I mean if
you if you put on just you know listen
guys if you go up to
indicators type in pivot just Pivot
Point standard that’s all you got to do
that pulls these up right here on
whatever time frame you’re on but you
just look at the daily and you can see
we’re all sitting here under the daily
we got the S1 so here’s the easiest way
to trade this is this right here there’s
a swing High just um above that daily on
pretty much all of them if you break out
above that minimum expected Target
should be the top of the you know the
recent high up here but you should
expect to break out higher if you happen
to drop below the swing low look for the
rally off the R1 I’m sorry the S1 and
that’s all you’ve got to do for all
these um if you get it now there is this
low volume node here right around this
is uh Chile’s CA Z yeah uh right there
around
95 so if it were to pull down that’d be
the first place I’d look but if it were
to close break down and close below that
I mean we got all this price acceptance
here um we could potentially see it
dipping down the S1 but if I want to go
long just looking for a breakout above
this one right here it’s a 13.1 cents
and if I get that I’m looking to Rally
up
um right here
flr same idea basically here except it’s
made its lower low here uh you can see
that the 50% pullback is right here
around the S1 again you’ve got this uh
your initial Target you want to look at
is this kind of two and a half cent area
this low volume node uh but if you can
break down through that you might reach
the S1 but in this case again you in
this case it’s the pivot if you can get
an impulsive breakout and close above
that pivot that means you know larger
candle spread larger Spike of volume
compared to the volume around it uh and
close above that you should be looking
minimal
up here toward about 5 cents um but you
should expect probably to break out
higher um you know probably rally all
the way up through at least through the
seven and a half cent area on it yeah
now it’s just time to start looking for
some like big supports down below and
you know start to start to get
interested set those stink bids Etc it’s
interesting people saying looks looked
like alts capitulated before Bitcoin
Tena saying all sped worse from 69 to 66
more than 65 to I mean it actually is
true if you take a because like I said
Bitcoin has you know five weeks now down
basically the top was over here but
basically five weeks and dominance had
rid and now only three weeks down so it
does basically show that there was this
major hype into allcoins you know five
six weeks ago and they sold off first
heavily and then Bitcoin trailed and
probably there wasn’t that much
liquidity left in ALS that people are
selling so yeah exactly exactly and and
right now you know what I’m showing
everybody is the easiest way especially
if you’re not very um very well versed
in you know in markets and structure and
stuff like this what I’m telling you
right here is actually the easiest way
to probably pivot or math pivots or math
it doesn’t it’s not arbitrary like where
you draw your support and where you draw
your resistance the PIV pivots are based
on the price action they’re mathematical
so for new Traders it’s really the
easiest thing it really is it really is
um you know you see right here you hit
uh this low volume note area a few times
um so again you know looking at this
it’s right here by the p so again uh you
know this here is Adam so 9 almost 9.3
9.4 Cent you get a breakout and close
above that impulsive man I would just be
looking minimally up here at uh probably
almost $14 and really expecting to break
out higher and probably run Beyond 20 um
off that but if it does break down here
you’re looking for that reversal at the
S1 pivot so if it comes down here hits
the S1 pivot and then breaks out above
this this previous interior swing High
here
boom you should be good to
go um and finally I’ve got a DOT
here uh again same I mean this you know
I was looking for I was trying to find
uh you know alts that look different and
what I was noticing was they all
basically look just about the same they
all they all looked like they had
bearish consolidation there capitulation
volume to the bottom and floating up on
low volume that’s how bare flags and
bearish penants are formed and you know
we get another breakdown you want to see
if they hold the low or
yeah exactly and so you know once again
came down here hit we hit it hit a few
times the low volume node here so you
know I wouldn’t be interested in going
long until we’re breaking above uh s and
a half dollars basically here
$758 and then initial Target right there
around $10.63 and then of course
breaking out further should have you run
through the R5 pivot pivot up there just
beyond $16 but you know again watch for
one potential more push down if we drop
down below that swing low look to get a
reversal around the one pivot here and
then you want to get that breakout back
up there and again go long I mean it’s
it’s the the least stressful way right
now to look at entering um alts right
now because they so many of them looks
just like this so you’ve got this setup
now you understand what you’re looking
for and now all you have to do is be
Pati oh man patient yeah I gotta show
you something I gotta show you something
that I just was looking at while you
were talking and on the weekly I wanted
to see when’s last time when I said hey
we have five weekly red candles for me
Blue on Bitcoin in a row I couldn’t like
we had nine of them in a row in this
time two years ago so it’s been two
years march to May and I then I started
scrolling back and throughout the entire
last cycle I can’t find five uh red
candles in a row maybe I mean literally
not even at covid there’s a pretty big
event there’s four here it never happens
I mean it literally never happens I
can’t find it like we’re I’m back in
2018 here
so this is a I mean you know some relief
should come that’s pretty hisor crazy
generally speaking you kind of expect it
but again you know we’re looking at the
range you know I’ve said what I think it
looks like uh to me right now and we’ll
see if it follows through with that and
um you know again uh if it does I think
a lot of people are going to get caught
everybody’s looking for minimally this
51,000 area but I’m hearing so many
calls since since we were I guess
probably the last couple of days really
talking about 30,000 in and I just all
the way I mean it just doesn’t make any
sense all the way down here you know
because 30,000 calls I’m starting to
hear it so I like that but here’s the
thing you know everybody’s like oh you
know we haven’t had the big pullback we
need to have a big pullback because we
always have big pullbacks but see that’s
just a misunderstanding or a lack of
understanding of what actually goes on
in markets right you have energy when
price you know is pulling back that
energy is dispersed in one of two ways
either a sharp pullback which is what
everybody’s kind of used to seeing or
it’s dispersed
sideways and so that’s why this killed
so many people right here and then they
were afraid to jump out here because
that was going to come back and you
remember I told you I like now we’re
gonna have this uh you know this
consolidation as we were Rising continue
up and that’s what we got here I mean
this is this is basically the big drop
here or this here but I mean it’s all
sideways is what it is even here it’s
still sideways like I think you
mentioned was what 20 20 what percent on
the on the pull back there I think it’s
25 24ish right now yeah I mean so very
small for Bitcoin uh but we’ve been
going a lot sideways and we doing this a
lot more than what we normally do so I
think you know we’re just seeing this
time around we’re just seeing that
energy and be dispers sideways because
we’ve got more buying um uh you know
more demand coming in uh for those
ranges there and so you know it doesn’t
allow that big you know slap in yourf
face pullback everybody’s looking for
and I think that’s keeping a lot of
people out of the market honestly
yeah
23.35% drop from the top at you know
73726 down to
565 yeah yeah and and on the weekly I
mean if we want to look at the weekly
there Stoke RSI is reset into oversold
we’ve got you
know reman semblances of uh of hidden
bullish Divergence here not exact you
got this Wick down here kind of throws
things off but basically you’ve got much
higher lows in price you’ve got lower
lows here on your oscillator we’re above
neutral so we’re still bullish on the
weekly and I mean you know all we’ve
done is pull back again just right into
this area here just right
into this kind of um support here where
we have a lot
of candle bodies that all kind of like
hovering right around each other here
and all we’ve done is pulled back like
halfway into that so um you know I get
it people want to look right here to
find you know the big moves but uh you
can’t ignore what’s happened over here
absolutely so yeah AB I like that Stoke
bottoming that that’s pretty consistent
yeah the Stoke RSI there yeah yeah I
like that I mean so for me you know I’m
not I’m not concerned I trade the charts
what it is and I understand my time
frame I’ve got my risk management um so
no reason to like freak out it’s the end
of the world kind of thing no chicken
little over here all right me either all
right guys don’t be Chicken Little
expand your time frame don’t overtrade
avoid the leverage you’ll be all right
guys follow TX West capital on X
otherwise uh maybe Chris we’ll uh see
you on on um spaces soon and you’ll
actually get to talk instead of
listening to John Reed talk for two
hours Good Times right right man I’ll
see you soon guys see you on Spaces in
20 minutes thanks Chris bye thanks
let’s
[Music]
dop let’s do

Some analysts predict Bitcoin can drop to $50,000. What are the chances it happens, and what are the possible scenarios for Bitcoin and crypto? I am discussing this and more with Joshua Frank, Co-Founder & CEO of The Tie, the leading information services provider for digital assets. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.

Joshua Frank: https://twitter.com/Joshua_Frank_
Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital

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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.