$150,000 Bitcoin Reconfirmed | Crypto Bulls Return

$150,000 Bitcoin Reconfirmed | Crypto Bulls Return

Standard Chartered is back at it again with hyperbolic Bitcoin predictions although this time just reiterating their $150,000 predictions I think we’re all a bit tired of those predictions but also probably all to some degree agree that it’s still possible but beyond the Bitcoin predictions there is a lot happening in macro a ton to unpack I’ve got the All-Star Squad here Mike mclone James lavish and Dave weissberger to discuss and unpack it all let’s go [Music] let what is up everybody I’m Scott mker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel hit that like button you may have noticed this is not my normal Studio I am in Sunny yet humid Puerto Rico land of non tax evasion but tax avoidance very different topic taking a bunch of meetings with the crypto Community down here but of course still had to show up on Monday to talk with all of you about the madness happening in the markets I’ve got Mike Mone James lavish Dave we’ve got you in the car I’m gonna just mute you you know maybe uh you’ll listen in but uh I had to bring Dave on because he’s wearing the McLaren okx Jersey the One race I missed the entire year from Miami Lando Norris wins a rousing victory in Miami so glad that he wore that in the spirit of that Victory guys we have a lot to unpack today because it’s just astounding to me I know James you just tweeted it at two million per minute treasuries mint cash like never before guys I thought we weren’t even uh printing money right now I thought we were tightening I thought what’s going on here that’s it’s referring to uh the paying $2 million of interest on our debt every every minute I mean it’s it’s not funny but it’s kind of funny especially in the in the context of last week which we should talk about that too uh where our economic advisers don’t even understand how a bond works but um I I want to hear what Mike has to say from the morning meeting from uh Bloomberg I just got through the headlines because it’s only 6: am here so um okay let’s start with our chief Economist um I think the key quote I took about from her is um Anna Wong Yeah Anna Wong is that um she her view of the Fed was they were not as as hawkish as they had thought and her quote was she thinks there’s two major pass for cuts and that is if the economy weakens or inflation Falls despite a somewhat strong economy um Ira Jersey our chief interest rate strategist thinks 10e note deal could get down to 4.3 % um I I think the key thing I really got from my colleague Step Shoes based in Hong Kong is the talking about the rate differential between the Yen and um the dollar and pointed out all the intervention there there’s a problem on a global basis is you’re not hearing about anybody intervening to strengthening the dollar they’re all trying to strengthen their own currencies despite the discussion we had earlier so I’m tilting in My Views now about you know this rapid increasing deficit so I think what the key thing from the macro that really matters now is last week or maybe just a few in the month of May so far we’ve had two note yield I think peaked at 5% I think crude oil’s probably peaked at that high around 87 copper might be peaking around 10,000 I see significant signs of peing in Commodities the only commodity that’s really closed closed at a record height at the end of the month of April is is gold I still see gold heading higher I don’t think what really stops IT particularly talk about the deficit um and the um thing that’s significant is we’re seeing a bounce in Chinese equities completely expected I mean they’re probably buying their own that was predicted from the ETF team they should be they’re turning Japanese and we still have rates in in China T out yields like 2.3% in the US it’s now 4.48 now got to there 4.8 last week and you see the Tilt there I think everything is starting to tilt lower I’ll end with this something I hardly ever watch it’s all about the US Stock Market so I’m watching that little 50-day moving average in the S&P 500 E minis I hardly ever watched The Daily charts tried and avoid it used to lose my hair I used to have here watching those and to me the number one thing is it’s got us to stay above that 50 day moving average S&P 500 because my tilt is the big trade for me is everything starting to tilt lower um bitcoin’s potential leader and it’s started we’ve bounced and now we have this narrative that oh the economy is not growing as fast as poss as we expected um inflation’s still sticky and that’s good for the stock market because the fed’s going to ease and we still have to go back to well maybe the fed’s not going to ease until the stock market tells it to which is still my base case yeah I mean interesting I know we keep saying that Bitcoin might be leading I just think still Bitcoin is ranging I I think it’s hard you know it did kind of sweep those range lows but it’s it’s kind of just low volume not much happening yeah and ranging it to me it’s a consolidation right so and like Mike said it’s if bar you know baring an event and all things being equal if it continues to trade in this range for a little while it just makes it stronger for an upside move as long as we don’t have a collapse in the economy don’t have a sudden spike in unemployment for instance which uh that’s on the table you know we that is absolutely on the table we we we cannot say that we’re out of the woods that we have the soft Landing everything’s good we saw the unemployment number or the actually let’s back up the unemployment numbers are they it’s confusing because I think that What’s Happening Here is you’ve got a lot of people are just not filing for unemployment it’s pay in the ass you’re not making enough money from from it I mean Heck if you’re an illegal immigrant you can walk across the border and get more money than unemployment pays you in in over a month just you know in a on a debit card so it’s like that just it’s it’s kind of a um a confusing number for people but the N the jobs number which is payrolls came in light again last week and so you’ve got unemployment just ticking up and uh We’ve shown the chart so many times on this show about when Unemployment uh when when you enter recession that’s when unemployment really Skyrocket so and that’s kind of like the the tip off um and uh so that’s that’s one thing the other thing is for me this week I mean I’m kind of laser focused on that Wednesday 10-year bond auction it’s a$ 42 billion Bond auction uh it’s we’ve had some trouble in these auctions and I really want to see how this uh how this plays out this week I want to see if investors are demanding higher yields uh than you know the last number of auctions because of these these inflation numbers the inflation data just keeps coming in a little bit hotter than uh than expected or wanted for the fed and we heard the FED turn um their their at least Powell’s comments were they they could have been way more hawkish uh but they turned away from doish let’s put it that way uh so are we going are investors going to demand more yield more more premium a higher premium for the uh the risk premium to the 10year because they they they know that rates either are going to stay higher for longer or there’s even the probability or possibility that we have a a hike you know I mean we talked about this how many months ago that that a rate hike is actually back on the table and people were laughing like there’s no way no it’s on the table is it is it g to happen not in my opinion I don’t think it will unless inflation starts to Roar higher but those are kinds of things I’m looking at and I I I would bet that um Mike I would bet Anna’s kind of had has a strong eye on that auction this week too yeah I have to say I wish I had it in front of me by the way but you know we talk about the political fed but historically I don’t have the numbers in front of me but I read an article recently that the FED has not backed off from tightening or easing during election years as much as the narrative says they have in the past actually continued on their path regardless of Elections I can’t uh like I said I don’t have it to quote here but uh I was surprised when I read it I’m I’m afraid I think you just fired up Dave and he’s drinking energy drink in a RAC I got one I got one word to anyone thinks that the FED will not be political [ __ ] I’m not saying they won’t I’m saying historically I was surprised that they had uh done things that would have been politically unpopular in election years but I guess you also have to dig into when during that year they did it because it matters simple fact is the world ha is rapidly changing towards hyper politization politicization uh there’s no question about it and we got both sides here we got Trump talking about taking away the fed’s independence because he doesn’t want to be screwed by them and he’s not gonna be running again right that’s the funny part about it he has no political interest other than he thinks he knows better which of course is a scary thought but we’ll we’ll put that one to the side uh and there’s no question that the amount of pressure that’s going to be on them uh look the polls already suck I I I I still I’m a conspiracy theorist I still think that uh in August at the Democratic Convention or maybe before the Democrats will have a new a new person to run and I think then that that that that’s going to get timed coincidentally with fed easing uh and you know you say say what you wish I I do believe that that’s likely I I think the fact is is the market is I mean I just noticed the steepening of the yield curve over the weekend which I hadn’t noticed before but it’s actually fairly pronounced and you know the jobs report on Friday is worse than people are saying just like it was worse than people were saying uh and by the way no one was particularly happy about it and if you notice the narrative most of the people who commented on it are like well you know you know it’s all it’s all trying to spin it if you think it’s an it is a a coincidence that Stephanie Kelton and modern monetary Theory have been making the rounds again uh you’re you’re not paying attention to what’s going on if you think it’s a coincidence that people talking about squishier inflation targeting uh you’re not you don’t realize what’s happening if you think it’s a coincidence that there this this narrative that somehow owner’s equivalent rent will go down if we cut rates uh is it’s not these are these are not coincidences they need to do what they need to do and it’s if there’s anybody who believes that there’s a way out of our debt situation without inflating it away than you know I used to have in my apartment in New York when we used to live there we had a view a corner of we could see the Brooklyn Bridge I’d be happy to sell it to you know the fact is that’s what they need to do we’ve been talking about this and I’ve been talking about this for two and a half years but what what strikes me over the weekend and this is why I think it’s interesting what James is saying the auction the market is telling you the auction’s going to go well that’s what the market say you know the yield was at 47 uh we’re now pushing 4 five you know 47 what two weeks ago you know that’s not an move considering that who’s gonna buy these bonds at this point question yeah we’ll see what else are you gonna that’s the question you gonna put your money in um in in Risk assets or are you going to they’re buying gold instead they’re buying gold yeah or are you gonna you know it’s they go ahead Mike I mean it’s a very the prettiest pig in the pen what else are you going to buy so you buy this I I just that trigger that question triggered something that got me promoted from the trading pits in Chicago to New York trading desk in the 90s and that is when I was extremely bullish bonds and over and over bullish bonds and all the guys in New York said Mone you’re idiot and if I turn out to be right one thing I always looked at was the rest of the world I say we this saf is deepest Market in the world in that US 10 you’re getting 4.5% in Canada you’re getting three percent in in in most of Europe you’re getting three and two Handles in the second largest country in the world which you really can’t invest in you’re getting a 2.3% it’s G to collapse bond yields I think are just a matter of time it’s going to collapse and there’s number one key thing that’s going to make that happen is the US Stock Market just mean reverting a little bit 10% Corrections in Bull markets are normal we’ve just had a little bit maybe 5% and we’re back up again and it’s in many measures I look at volatility in US Stock Market it’s extremely low and rates are extremely high so when people say that question to me um Scott I just really appreciate it who’s going to buy those bonds I remember them saying to me like I said it was 30 years ago and I said there’s always someone who find to buy bonds when rates get that high and that’s the key thing I like to point out is I like to say is who wants to buy gold with US Stock Market on a tear and you can get 5% in t bill now that’s what we heard from Warren Buffett lately but I want to tilt back to one thing yeah but one thing is but the thing is that’s really wrong about when people say there’s High cash levels there’s not high cash levels I will be publish publishing on this in the next few days if you look at money market total assets in this country as a percentage of our market cap the stock market it’s about 11% it was 14% before the great financial crisis so we are extremely Low in Cash people just forget to measure what really matters it’s the whole Tide’s gone up so much yes there’s a lot more money in cash but there’s a lot more money in anything there’s less money in cash now than before the great financial crisis and to me that’s the key thing that’s going to trigger we still that’s why the stock market has to keep going up and that’s why your biggest risk is there and that’s why I still think the problem for um everything is beta and that’s why maybe why yes it’s great the bitcoin’s consolidating but we also have that S&P 500 holding that 5,000 support and bouncing again it’s still I think that correlation is now higher than ever because we’re so elevated we got to get through this test just give me a 10% correction in a bull market correction in the stock market and then we’ll see what everything plays out for now it’s kind of met in Commodities I think everything peing despite the fact that stock market’s still going higher yeah to I have to bring up that Buffett article really quick for people haven’t seen it of course or something right in the way berer Hathway’s cash pile hits record as Buffett cut steak and apple apple clearly uh still their largest I I believe holding but they cut either 13 or 18% and are sitting on 189 billion in cash and roughly the numbers I think they only bought two or three billion dollars worth of stock and sold 20 billion more is this a dinosaur move or is this guy continue to know something because if you look at it it seems like they could have played this run better obviously he zooms out but when you have stock market at alltime highs and he’s adding cash maybe that’s smart just slowly taking profit on the way up for whatever is coming next but that is astounding $190 billion dollar in cash well I mean the key point out of what Mike said and and by the way sorry to disappoint people but I still agree with Mike on the the notion of uh of uh that there has to be a correction in the stock market at some point I just don’t know when and I certainly wouldn’t be shorting it and I certainly wouldn’t be using leverage but uh is the fact that there’s a lot more money and as I’ve said before it’s the freaking denominator when there’s a it’s like basic economics first lecture in economics 101 was about supply and demand you have more money that means that the money is worth less the money is worth less things denominate that money price nominally looks higher and that a lot of what’s going on so the fact is yeah we have a higher cash amount than we have ever but the percentage is lower well yeah that means two things it means that when we do get a correction there’s plenty of room for people to pull money out of the market before they go rutro I have nothing better to put it in and they put it back in and so you get a boom bu you know bus boom cycle but the simple fact is is everything denominated in dollars should be worth more uh in order just to stay stay put because of the aforementioned $2 million to day of printing yada yada yada yada y there’s just more freaking money and the reason the dollar is you know rates are the way they are it’s because the dollar is the global Reserve currency and we need to attract people to buy it etc etc I mean Canada with what’s going on up there at 3% or China or Greece or Italy at lower than us it it’s it’s nonsense anybody it’s like I I love the I I love the the commentary every time there a big Market someone says can you really believe that the discounted cash flow of XYZ has really changed by x billion dollars you know today in the last five minutes and the answer is no but the animal spirits have and to be blunt That’s What markets are these days Animal Spirits they are the people on the margin trading so this morning to walk in and see Bitcoin dropping because of the FDC taking a gun and shooting it at Biden’s foot uh because if you think that that hurting Robin Hood’s investors is going to help reelection to this government you are out of your freaking mind and if you’re sitting in the white house and I don’t know if anybody in the White House is listening to this understand this morning might have been the Capper you know going after you probably don’t know this but if going after Unis swap is a really bad way to help you with young people that are in college you might have seen the polls not doing so well there going after the swaps proba a bad idea going after Robin Hood literal Robin Hood who has a broker dealer that you told them they couldn’t used for crypto and then saying their non- broker dealer is breaking the law because it’s a security you literally have pissed off most of the average people in America that are their clients because there is you you’ve created a literal nowin situation for those Star Trek fans you’re trying to create the kobashi Maru here and the fact of the matter is nobody’s G to be happy with this and this is going to get used politically and if it isn’t then the Republican strategists are asleep but they’re not asleep they’re going to figure this out because it’s absolutely absurd it is totally absurd you’re Li that means Fidelity is going to get a Wells notice next because ethereum is in their platform right I mean the whole thing is is absurd this government is insistent upon trying to kill crypto in a way that 40% of uh that not 40% I think 40 million crypto users in America are going to find HM this actually matters to me they did something and I lost money today and that’s what happened there a bit there’s a bit of nuance there I don’t disagree reason ref Fidelity but uh Robin Hood offered a lot more crypto for trading than fality does so what so if if they don’t try to poke if they don’t try to poke The ethereum Nest which they don’t know if they will you do have Robin Hood trading salana and Doge and you know basically further down the risk but your your point is taken is that Robin Hood is the reg understand Securities comrade Warren has convinced comrade Biden that we’re no longer in America and effectively what they’ve just said today is you know we don’t want anybody to be able to trade any of these things because we think they’re bad for you that’s literally it because Robin Hood for those who don’t know tried or wanted to do this under Rob Hood their broker dealer but and filed with finra which is the the self-regulatory organization that that that is their their regulator for what’s called trading in a non in non-securities through their broker dealer now you can do this by that’s how broker dealers can offer Futures products for example so it it’s a welln Well honed path and finra has rules for it but starting under Jay Clayton and God knows continuing under Gary Gensler finra hasn’t approved any of these for broker dealers facing customers so despite the fact that Robin Hood wanted to trade it it through their broker dealer as non-securities but with all the broker dealer protections they were not allowed to so they created an affiliate and an affiliate you know there’s there’s the difference between Robin Hood’s affiliate and someone using eBay to trade or you know a uh you know legal gambling site like we now have in Florida with hard rock bets or whatever what’s the difference they’re non-securities you can put money up and make money or no whatever you can do it whatever with the secc is saying with this Wells notice is there is they are admitting there is no path and nobody in America should be allowed to buy salana they should not be allowed to contribute to an ecosystem of any of the cryptos that Robin Hood is saying which by the way that is a Rubicon that no one until this they could have at least had plausible deniability that that was their their goal now there’s no deniability they are now literally 100% with no wiggle room saying no American citizen should be allowed to buy or sell or invest in any of these assets full stop so that’s a problem politically because theyve and people haven’t figured this out yet but they’re going to and yeah you put together the combination of Unis Swap and Robin Hood and coinbase you literally have no Avenue anymore for Americans to invest in up to your point even before when it was just coinbase or binance if you could go on a decentral you know a decentralized exchange perhaps gain exposure to some of them now they’re I mean but but we know that this is what’s been happening because they’re also coming after I want to ask you about James about this Bitcoin self- custody right I mean it’s very clear that this isn’t even now just about unregistered Securities this is about control we could say it’s about taxes we could say it’s about a Crackdown but I mean at this point you know we saw a lot of cheering from certain parts of the Bitcoin Community about all the things happening to everything not named Bitcoin well now they’re coming after Bitcoin predictably as well as at least in self custody it feels like we’re going on a path where it’s like you will buy your Bitcoin from Black Rock or Fidelity and you will like it sir yeah and then we then we can see exactly what you own um through your your brokerage account and uh and they’re not shutting off Avenues to get money to those accounts so if you want to move money to Fidelity you want to move money to your broker that has access to Black Rock no problem if you want to move your money to coinbase sometimes you’re uh your your bank just misses the wire or they hold it up or if you want to move your money to Kraken good luck you know sometimes that happens I mean we like I told you I experienced the choke point 2.0 with my hedge fund we had to wait weeks for wires they would just got get cancelled they would get denied they would get blocked and they’re sending it to a um you know a limited partnership in the United States that is based in in in Delaware and they we blocking it because we had Bitcoin in our name I mean you know I mean it’s it’s no secret it it’s happening and so the question is um I mean I don’t know this is we we could we could speculate on on this ad nauseum whether or not they’re coming after Self custody and they’re going to actually en enact laws that you’re not allowed to uh self- custody Bitcoin or anything else I mean of course it’s that’s that’s that’s a possibility I mean we’ve seen the madness coming out of Washington the last number of weeks and and I whether it’s because they’re just completely out of touch with being reelected or it’s because the the desire the need the absolute need for control is so high that they they must take that path and that’s the question because this is not politically popular to any constituency right listen going after self- custody pisses off all the crypto clients it doesn’t get you a vote from any other sector right there’s nobody who’s passionately voting on the they need to get rid of self- custody platform so I asked John Deon about this in the interview that I posted yesterday for anyone who didn’t watch it you know he’s obviously running against Elizabeth Warren now I was surprised as a politician who has to you know I guess tow some some of the line he flat out said listen Jamie Diamond writes Elizabeth Warren’s bills this is about Bank control there’s no way they’re going to let this stuff exist if they win and at the end of the day it’s really about Central Bank digital currencies which Elizabeth Warren has said out loud now that was further than I would have been even willing to go and he’s running against her for this you know partially for this very reason so James to your point I think it’s about control because there’s no way anybody’s political strategist looks at this and goes you know what’s gonna get us votes today going after Robin Hood or cracking down on self- custody because that’s not popular with anybody but that’s not it it’s about control you know they they will they will concede popularity for control every day as long keep control right so I I put in our our chat tweet that I put did out this morning because there was an absolutely brilliant satire uh you know satirical tweet about uh how evil wallets are now I mean by wallets I mean like the leather things or the canvas things I mean the this kind of wallet right and so the and it’s it’s absolutely worth reading you know if to do the show more but basically the argument is Cash is dramatically better for money laundering than uh than crypto C Bitcoin Etc not even close it’s it’s it’s really well written awesome but my point is yes absolutely but understand that these same people who don’t want you to be able to invest in crypto don’t want you to be able to move money in in any way that they can’t literally see everything remember the $600 uh report your your zel and and PayPal these are people they want cash to be illegal they want control so if you vote for Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren you are voting for a government that wants to control you now you could I don’t care what your politics are I mean I’m I personally don’t like to talk about politics in depth about this stuff I’m not like Ryan selus who’s like gone on and whatever but look at the end of the day Biden voter well he he he’s a he’s a trump voter now I’m saying so you can see which way the tide is turning in this right I mean the reality is is if you want to preserve your economic Preity you don’t want an Administration that is literally going to take a mandate if you get if you got a Blue Wave in November effectively assume that your economic freedom is gone and if that matters to you then understand which way to vote now there may be issues that matter more to you I don’t know what they would be but because to me that is probably the most important one but it is what it is this move solidifies it there’s no they are now you know the the old expression Crossing the Rubicon they have crossed the rubic and that’s why I’m so fired up this morning because I I was not expecting to come in and talk about politics but when I see literally the one firm who represents who who effectively is the average American investor and the starter investor being told that yeah we know you tried to do this a compliant way and you therefore did it a different way but we’re going to go after you anyway that that and allowed people to do that allowed people to put a lot of money in and it’s not that like they’ve made a secret of it crypto has been a huge Revenue driver for Robin Hood for years now so for them to come after them now it’s basically like what’s the point here there’s only one point they’re basically saying you know what we have enough of this we want to stop it we think that America shouldn’t be allowed to use this stuff and they’re drawing a Line in the Sand I find it interesting that we’re seeing this series of Wells notices yet but that we haven’t seen the actual court cases which does obviously take a bit of time so Wells Noti isely saying we’re considering you know going after you guys maybe they’re doing it for that political reason but actually don’t have the will to file the cases right before the election or with the stretched you know oh no they probably are filing it just takes time the reality is there’s zero if they lose if if Trump wins or RFK wins and Biden is gone and Elizabeth Warren is no longer calling the shots all these cases will disappear well this is not this is so this is not a political show but do you believe that RFK will be given any sort of platinum platform to uh to to run I no I have a little bit of inside baseball there I would have said no but I happen to be in Puerto Rico largely with the RFK political machine and I can tell you that there’s a lot of money and a lot of people certainly down here in in the United States who believe it’s going to be very very surprising assuming which they believe he will that he’s on the ballot like of course there’s a uh you know there’s there’s a biased angle there from the people who support him but but he has a pretty large machine behind him and they’re pissed off I I think that he has a legitimate chance personally I’ll make my decisions when the election time comes but until we’re close and I know the guy’s not gonna be on the ballot that’s the horse I’m supporting and I’ve the one thing that I don’t agree with everything you guy says by any stretch but at least he’s not one of those two guys but one of one one thing that helps him in this election cycle which I think these uh the you know the other two candidates are overlooking is that nobody wants to debate you know so if Biden refuses to debate then there’s there’s if there’s no stage for the current candidates to be on then that helps RFK because typically it’s just he’s out of sight out of mind if you’re an independent candidate but you can be front and center along with everybody else as long as you can somehow stir up controversy or get the uh mainstream media to talk about you and that’s the probably the biggest challenge right there I mean look the what matters here is a very simple question and that is are they overplaying their hand and you always have to look at this stuff because the the the truth is that Americans always you know people like cash for certain things it always has been I mean you you travel a l you know like we were joking at Formula 1 this week that you know there’s still cash tip jars around and stuff and if that event I I don’t know what the Grand Prix I haven’t gone to the Grand Prix in London but going to everything else I’ve gone to in L in in UK or in Europe uh it’s almost impossible to use cash you can it’s it it exists you can go to an ATM machine and get Euro notes or get pound notes but try going to a restaurant or an event or whatnot and using cash you almost can’t right but in America you can and that that’s kind of an interesting point and so you know we all are are crypto focused but it’s really Freedom focus it really is it’s it’s about that and and why do they not want it well there’s there’s two things and and it’s funny because you know Bitcoin tax avoidance with Bitcoin is is dumb right I’m not talking about Puerto Rico tax avoidance I mean not paying your taxes if you make money trading crypto is stupid it really is dumb you’re going to you know if you have you have capital gains in crypto cryto report them and pay them full stop because at the end of the day the blockchain does not lie and you know I don’t care which Fiat on-ramp exchange you’re using there’s going to be you know there is going to be reporting of it you you think you can get away with a barter economy with Bitcoin you want to buy something serious good luck with that uh the government’s going to get their pound their pound of Flesh they’re going to and frankly it’s easier for them to get it with Bitcoin than it is with you know with with with actual cash dollars and so it to me it’s kind of mind-boggling that they’re going down this path they must think that people don’t understand and are already ready to be led like the Lambs of the slaughter it’s sort of like you know the all the arguments we have about uh about macro here it’s like people think no one’s paying attention they can print to infinity and it won’t matter I mean literally that’s what mmt is they say well you know it’s everything’s a denominator so since we own the denominator it doesn’t matter that’s why and I’m going to bring it right back to your first thing God I’m teeing you back up that’s why we all were like so horrified by the the chairman of the Council of economic advisor not being able to answer the question the question he was asked was if you could print money why do you need to you know you know why do you need to pay it back yeah why do you and but the scariest part about that which I think everyone watched we watched it here on Friday actually on the show that was Jared Bernstein hey you have to wonder if he’s actually that ignorant or if he’s just terrified to give the correct answer it would horrify people so badly but B is that the person asking the questions as you me mentioned before she’s further down the mmt curve than him and is criticizing him for basically not being mmt enough that’s the context right she’s like why lend it if we can just print it and pay the bills right it’s it’s absolute Crazy Town it makes you feel that you literally have to own some Bitcoin whether it’s just to say this is insane or to protect yourself and so yes I think Bitcoin can go to 150,000 this year or this cycle if all this madness happens but I bet Mike maybe disagrees and I think the macro says uh maybe 150,000 is a really high Target but I think that uh rational thought says screw this it could go higher so Bitcoin has been underperforming the S&P 500 NASDAQ for a couple years now if you just look in the ratio basis and um and that’s a bit of a problem that’s why I have to re relate to I want to see it really do well versus beta now that we’re past this Perfect Storm for higher prices that’s over have the ETFs and as far as regulation we we we improve the ETFs in this country just let them beat each other up that’s the American way and it’ll be fine just that’s one thing I let’s not add nauseum dig into that too much to me it’s just a matter of time that ethereum ETFs will be launched and but there’ll be in in there’ll be problems in the meantime but to get to 150 I think that means that maybe the S&P 500 needs another 30% we’re at that stage right now where um it’s all about Beta And I want to point the key thing love in cryptos as we were speaking I had to pull up my coin Market cap.com sort on volume when I noticed tether is now 111 billion dollars that’s been the most enduring Trend in all cryptos it’s the most widely traded crypto it’s the US dollar you can trade it 247 and any European politician who me I’m sorry any American politician who messes that up was just an idiot and they the history will judge them accordingly just don’t worry about it I mean I just this one thing that’s been enduring in all cryptos is this lay base layer is the bucks so okay and what do they invest in treasuries okay and if you’re a politician messing with that you got a problem but that’s the key thing I always like to point out as an ex accountant anytime you sell anything particular if there’s an electronic Ledger the number one thing the IRS looks for is just your cost basis and if you think they’re not if you don’t have a cost basis they assume it’s zero good luck that’s just life and then done they they pointed out and that’s from a guy who saw his brother’s bank account when I was in the trading pist get wiped up because he wasn’t paying his taxes it’s just the way it is you got to pay your taxes you got follow the laws and okay so overall big picture but for Bitcoin to get to that level I think it does have the long-term definable diminishing Supply increasing demand and adoption but right now we have to admit one thing that’s very rare is for that S&P 500 to sustain 20% above its 100 we moving average every lesson in history except for aberration around covid when it gets there you don’t want to be extra on particular when volatility is extremely low interest rates are really high and interest rates in the rest of are plunging in their bonds it’s just the signals here to me are towards deflation and the top leading indicator is Bitcoin now if we do get that back up in in beta if Bitcoin cannot go down as much on a risk adjusted basis that’s a win and so far it is and I just look at the only major commodity still at record highs um is gold and it’s up another 1% this morning it’s interesting Mike we have this sort of uh push and pull about how this collapse will happen right it’s I’m down here obviously everybody’s like hardcore libertarian they moved to Puerto Rico for a reason right you don’t just make that move unless you uh deeply so we talked about these things pretty deeply at dinner with quite a few people that would uh surprised you guys who are down here it seems the consensus here is that Runway inflation is coming not deflation and they none of them can get wrap their head around how deflation would come outside of potentially a real estate crisis so I’ll tell you the number way it’s going to come first of all every lesson of History part is is pointed towards deflation after significant inflation in the back of the biggest money pump in history the book the boom and bust by Quinn the other book the price of time I forget the author of that one Chancellor points that out there’s many of them that pointed out and we’re tilting that way it’s already happening in China you can’t believe their data look at their bond yields 2.3% and then you have to look at the number one thing that really what did what sparked that deflation that kicked off in 2006 S8 was the US housing market went up too much and it started leading way down what’s been leading everything and everywhere in the worldwide is US Stock Market so to me deflation starts with the US Stock Market having a normal reversion correction it brings down everything and if it doesn’t happen fed’s not going to ease until it does it just that’s the lose lose very now then I I just point out how expensive it is versus most other assets so let’s unpack that for a second though because Mike I I I agree that there is there is a significant uh risk to Def to deflation but it will be very short lived there is no way we can continue with the deficits that we have if we have a deep deflationary event that causes an a collapse in the economy there’s just absolutely mathematically no way and I think you would agree with me in long term that look when you have an economic downturn what happens your your mandatory expenses your entitlements go up by 8 to 12 percent and at the very same time that your tax receipts go down to by 8 to 12 percent we’re already running $2 trillion do plus deficits that’s going to put us up over the three trillion doll range okay so I and I and so what do they have to do they’re going to come in and print so any kind of sharp downturn in the economy will be a sharp upturn on a v recovery because so much printing is going to happen now why are they going to do that because we must keep High inflation to to continue this this uh the The Madness of the of the debt problem that we have we might there’s just no ma mathematically mathematical way around it you have to keep High structure inflation so there there in lies the question on the bond yields and so what happens to the rest of the world we are are the dollar stays strong perpetually and it crushes so many economies around the world that are dependent on it and need dollars and that’s just reality and so and Banks and our own Banks that’s happening I just like to use one good example a little bit of push back on that James as we are turning Japanese yeah I understand that but we’re and we are but we’re a different economy than than Japan and uh and Japan could be doing what they’re doing for very very long time before uh you know they they collapse and that’s and I agree that this can H this can go on for a long time absolutely can go on for a very long time but it would be easy for us to spiral upwards in our debt to GDP if we don’t if we don’t continue to systematically uh allow for Perpetual inflation you know and that’s just that’s just reality so I mean can we really turn Japanese as the Reserve I mean can’t Japan do what Japan did because they’re not the answer is no the answer is no uh you can’t if you’re the reserve but more importantly you know Japan did what they did with a culture of sa of huge culture of savings and and unbelievable amount of money saved in the postal system Etc a a population that was trained toward Duty and to the government it’s just it’s a completely so yeah so hold on to that so so Japan’s housing market collapsed and that’s what caused them to have no inflation for all these years what happened when our housing market collapsed the entire world collapsed the whole the whole world we took basically the whole world down with us that’s right you know but look I I think that people need to remember something I don’t like to be polyana is I don’t want to be chicken Lish but the reality is if you go back and look at Germany in the 20s they were saying exactly the same [ __ ] what I just heard uh before the we got into the hyper before we went into hyperinflation the Mark was the strongest currency in the world blah blah blah blah blah blah blah and basically it’s always the same you know with if you read you know the road to surum if you it doesn’t matter which one you meet I I I will go back and repeat Milton Freedman inflation is always a monetary phenomenon if you are printing more money the denominator goes down the issue with all of this is how long can you kick the can down the road and the one thing you cannot do and get away with is publicly say the quiet part out loud and get people to believe you because once every human being on the planet believes that the government says you know what we don’t need to do this then all of a sudden that’s when inflation starts to spiral that’s when every you’re getting the question every day now I get this question every day now if the if we’re buying our own bonds what’s the point why don’t they just print money and give it to the banks you know just print money and give it to why why do we need to why do we need to go around with this charade you know and that and that they in that then then we just turned to a Banana Republic and and the the confidence in the US dollar banana world you said it before world world because Mike is right we are the as bad and as annoying as as we look at our fiscal situation we are still the best of a bad bunch I will go back to the way I phrase this constantly and and I’m not the only one who phrases it this way by any means 1971 the world embarked on an experiment of 100% fiat currency in the 5,000 years of recorded history before that before is 1971 there was always somebody out there with hard money that is a fact and it is also a fact that every major Empire that started to devalue their hard money collapsed and so yeah you know this is an interesting experiment can we continue to promote it but most of the people who are quote economists certainly in the you know most of the people who are out there who are in policy positions around the world have never lived in a world before when there was any form of sound money and so have this this this this Dynamic and yeah you know look personally we’re all better off I don’t want to see anything close to the kind of of upheaval that those Bitcoin Advocates who are talking about Bitcoin being worth five million in in a year or two I mean whatever you know you if Bay was gonna win his idiotic bet which obviously he lost it would have meant that really really bad crap would have happened and imense human suffering and I am not first of all I don’t believe that will happen I certainly hope it doesn’t happen but I do think that de Bitcoin delinking and doing what it’s done three times in its past coincidentally on the same cycle the fouryear cycle which may may have something to do with the way its monetary policy is where it delinks I mean Mike when you talk about Bitcoin being outperforming of the S&P and you’re going back to the price from 2021 what you’re doing is saying okay since its last cycle High Bitcoin is underperformed well sure it’s true we’re still right back at the PL price in a trading range now with its last cycle High the only difference is is the hash rate the number of ownership every fundamental about Bitcoin and adoption is now four or more times Val more valuable so all you have to ask yourself the question if we’re going to get a cycle high this time where will it be my answer is somewhere over 200,000 because that would literally be average based upon what it’s done in the past so I’m not talking about you know you can’t draw a chart where you you look there you have to go back at least to to 2015 if you want to start drawing charts because you have to take into account these Cycles that’s the only point that I’ll make there but other than that I mean everything you’re saying is true except for the fact there’s a lot more dollars a lot more Euro a lot more Yen a lot more pounds a lot more every piece of paper out there and and that does mean something so I have to file that a little bit because that’s the main reason I’m still very bullish gold and I I have to point out that um I just like to look at if you look at the Bitcoin divided byp S&P 500 ratio the peak was in 2021 and we had a lower Peak later in 2021 we’ve had a lower Peak this year so I look at it from a giant valuate risk model it’s not showing the big I would like it to show in a bull market and it’s showing the opposite it’s showing Divergent weakness I look at the same thing at Gold versus um Bitcoin versus gold Bitcoin is doing the same thing it’s showing Divergent weakness on I’m not picking a point in time I’m just showing those highs the ratio so I look at it as a giant value at risk model that’s a problem I like to see it do something better so if I’m putting on structuring positions expecting to say hey maybe you know if I was along 100 units at S&P 500 and typically in the past I could put on a third or less of that in Bitcoin get the same performance I’ll do that but now you’re getting less and less it’s diminishing and that to me is is the fact of what’s happening I’m very concerned that all we need is just the normal rebalance of the markets that’s just you know S&P to do what it always does in bar in Bull markets so a little and then we’ll see that we’ll see the who’s wearing clothes right now I’m pointing out that um what we had for a good high in Bitcoin was significant and we’re we’re at the risk of I think it might make another new high but the risk is greater reversion at the moment the problem bottom line is it still trades about three times the volatility of beta and when so we got to get over this and that’s just if you just look at these ratios it’s showing diverent weakness on the last few highs versus beta I need to make a sentence your if you take what you just said that is why I am almost eye-wateringly unbelievably like more bullish about Bitcoin now than I’ve ever been before you basically just encapsulated Bitcoin is cheap cheap cheap compared to its fundamentals that’s because essentially what you’re saying is it hasn’t gone up it hasn’t gone up nearly as much as you would have expected if all those things is true I think it’s on sale I think it’s a discount and that’s how I look at it long term now do I use leverage no and I keep saying it I mean look our clients at coin routes are experts in in understanding and utilizing leverage in order to smooth out arbitrages and and the and I always I’m staring at leverage on a constant basis it’s really important to understand it because what we see today is all the leverage players for weeks now have been leaning short and it’s and and I and the longer that goes the better it is for long-term bull run because what you’re saying is is why people are saying it’s it’s that old meme that I love and it doesn’t matter what two prices are you know it’s the one where the right side of the of the cartoon there’s a desk that says Bitcoin on sale for it used to say 60,000 now you know whatever Bitcoin on sale 60,000 and there’s a multitude of people lining up to buy it and on the left side there’s Bitcoin on sale of 30,000 and there’s one guy looking around saying well maybe I maybe I shouldn’t be buying it here because it’s cheap when things are cheap is when you know people are less excited about it but you’re right those value at risk models will all of a sudden start tilting toward buying Bitcoin if Bitcoin starts tra you know starts sustainably trading at Double where it is today and that that to me is the problem with those models because as I’ve said repeat after me Bitcoin trades like an yeah option option option on its future adoption that’s right so you know but yes but that’s why I’m so I’m so bullish but it’s also why I think that absent a catalyst we could stay like this for months and we do this show every week and so I’m going to be a broken record I’ve been saying it for two months that was my base case but uh meanwhile Bitcoin surpasses 1 billion transactions process 800 weeks after launch that’s red me for you Dave but I mean this astounding right I mean the level of adoption in the amount of time uh still shows as Dave loves to point out look at hash rate look at transactions everything’s pointing up even if the price isn’t necessarily on a day-to-day basis right that I mean I I I I don’t know any other way to to to phrase it it really is that simple but because we’re we’re getting to this this point the reason I disagree with Mike on the Bitcoin price and agree on many of the other things is because of The Narrative of what Bitcoin is or isn’t you know it’s like if you want to understand like for example if you remember I think it was it was almost a year ago when everyone was talking about softw war that Jason Lowry book and we had a show and we talked about it and I said well listen you know unless I’m crazy doesn’t this mean that bitcoin’s blockchain could have other use cases other than simply value right and now we have Michael sailor talking about using Bitcoin as an ID solution well guess what I mean you know now all of a sudden you go from the argument that that your friend Peter Schiff you know likes to make that well you know gold is gold is used gold is used for jewelry and Bitcoin what’s it used for well okay maybe there are some uses whether it’s inscribing jpegs which I think is kind of silly but it’s whatever but IDE Solutions you know the blockchain itself has value and it it is important to understand that but in the macro sense I think that that we cannot underestimate the importance of mmt narratives the importance of inflation narratives being used to justify I think that what you’re seeing now is and and James said something before that was incredibly important and we have to come back to it Japan has managed to intervene and keep the end from escalating away if you think think that the Japanese uh uh prime minister and head of the the the the the Ministry of Finance didn’t have a conference call with Yellen and Powell last week then you are delusional if you think that the that the tone because remember the FED doesn’t e if e their main tool is jawboning is talking if you think that that tone wasn’t doish to help Japan not go through or have it go really badly then you’re crazy because they basically said listen if you have four stuff the only option we have is to sell dollars and sell our treasuries do you want us to do that no but we don’t want to do it either well there’s one there’s one other option they may not disclose right away and that’s swap lines well right they’re G probably be doing it they probably they’re open which is a question whether or not they’ they’ve used them right and and and by the way for those who don’t understand what that means the the the tldr is it means more liquidity slashing into the market look I think I I know that Mike is or I think Mike is a a long-term Bitcoin uh Optimist right what we’re what we’re all arguing over is whether Bitcoin as a risk on asset whether it is gets impaired in the crosshairs of a stumbling economy short term longterm term though even if it does that volatility in my mind just produces opportunity for longterm capture capture of long-term uh value because you look at if if if if Bitcoin collapses down to to the 30 $40,000 that’s a tremendous opportunity in my opinion to grab some deep value on a long-term asset that will that will hold its value and will will continue to appreciate in long periods of time so just give it a few years and that’s and that’s it it produces opportunity the volatility and that’s a good thing I I I think one thing that has to be common that we didn’t mention uh you know in in in in in terms of this I’m sorry I was just I I to keep my my thoughts together there there was a lot of of conversation um you know last week about uh yeah well I’m I’m I’m trying to trying to encapsulate my thoughts on this I mean you’re talking about opportunity the there is a lot of talk about biano research was talking about what will happen when the ETF holders are losing money they’re going to sell end mass and they’re going to exacerbate vola to the downside and certain people like yours truly said you’re out of your freaking mind JY these are people who are buying it even the retail when it gets to raas going to be even longer term but retail yeah sure some will sell and there were there were headlines this morning record outflows in Bitcoin ETFs last week yes sure what the price do last week nothing yeah it was a dip it got bought and we’re back where we were and the fact is at one point last week half of all the Bitcoin ETF fires were underwater and yet no Cascade happened and yet we still have we this we’ve we’re only beginning this March of on-ramps for for the ETFs we just begun so the Catalyst that we’ve talked about this positive catalist it’s already played out it hasn’t already played out it’s playing out and I the the amount of capital that can come into the space once you get large institutions that are on boarding their clients and their customers I mean we’re talking about the JP Morgans the Goldman of the world that’s going to it’s it it just creates addition liquidity into Bitcoin that is not there right now and so and we’re just now seeing some of that because we’re passing that magic 900 day Mark where they’ve had their quiet period to see if the thing collapses if there’s a problem operationally if something happens with C custody we’re past that so now they’re they’re getting understand what that means I mean we literally saw weeks of stories and people in the mainstream Financial media the FP basically made it their base case that when there was a dip in Bitcoin the the ETF buyers new to the market will Panic sell and it will exacerbate volatility people made that point yeah I mean I think they did very briefly like you said and it went right back up just like anything else so I think your retail I mean there was over 500 million in a day of outlow that’s retail saying I don’t want to play this game and those people were always the short-term speculators anyways and we’re never going to stick around for the right reasons which is why I sort of laugh when bitcoiners get mad at people who trade meme coins because they’re completely different markets and I laugh at the idea that someone who’s trading mem coins in the casino would have been a bit bitcoiner today if meme coins didn’t exist right well that you got to pull up that casino guy the guy dumping $20,000 into his account and the casino just instant yet we we’re worried about onramps to to uh to Robin Hood but and then just two days later you have 500 and I mean 5 and 20 something um 20 million outflows and just two days later you have 378 million inflows just two days later so it’s just it flipped you know that’s this the shift the Bianco narrative is the same as shift by the way he laid it out on my and it’s a very popular Puerto Rico narrative by the way that the ETFs will cause more volatility to the downside when there’s a major dip but uh there’s not even enough money in them right now to test that we’ll we’ll see if uh if Black Rock and Fidelity are right when pensions endowments and Sovereign wealth come if they Panic at a 7% drop and sell billions of dollars Bitcoin I have my doubts the the the simple fact is that the people those guys are aircraft carriers they do not turn quickly aircraft carriers it it will almost certainly dampen volatility meaning that as they get as they go when those people are fully invested the idea that that the Val will be balancing so if someone says I want to have 3% in Bitcoin and Bitcoin doubles they going have to sell half of it it’s it’s that will happen and that will actually cushion volatility the upside on similarly if they say I have 3% in Bitcoin and Bitcoin drops in half they’re going to buy and so the literally is the opposite the reason asset allocations that matter and what’s going on with gold is new buyers or people who uh you know it’s it’s not part of that 6040 portfolio but once something is part of a mechanistic portfolio it dampens volatility full stop and so if that happens it happens and and we’ll understand it and I I think you should well it agree and now I’m going to go to the pool uh for some meetings before it rains inevitably by by noon and I spend the rest of the day underwater hopefully only uh in the physical sense and not the portfolio sense gentlemen thank you uh as always a pleasure Mike James dve I don’t think that that was necessarily a direction that the show was uh intended to go in but uh people out there we don’t we don’t really have an intended dire we don’t take Direction well Scott you watch like the Allin podcast they’ve got their like you know six topics we just talk and see what happens then we run out of time and hope for the best uh for next week and I think people people love it I do certainly it matches my add personality exceptionally well but uh guys thank you uh interested to see how the coming weeks develop you know I think we’re gonna probably unfortunately be talking about a lot more politics whether we like it or not so uh it’s coming on on every show every social media channel every everything that’s what’s that’s what’s going to be driving the narrative from Mike James Dave guys thank you see you tomorrow morning bye everyone let’s [Music] go that’s do

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what’s happening in macro and crypto!

Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1
James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish
Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11

►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!
👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/

►► The Arch Public
Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!
👉https://thearchpublic.com/

►►OKX
SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!
👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER

►►TRADING ALPHA
READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘25OFF’ FOR 25% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK.
👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker

►►NGRAVE
This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use.
👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd

►►NORD VPN
GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL – 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY!
👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets

Follow Scott Melker:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker
Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe
Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c

#Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday

The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.