Gold Approaches Crucial Fibonacci Milestone: Gary Wagner Eyes Upward Potential

Gold Approaches Crucial Fibonacci Milestone: Gary Wagner Eyes Upward Potential

[Music] hey everyone I’m Jeremy saffr you’re watching K Cod news if you haven’t already make sure to hit that subscribe button now this week on chart this with Gary Wagner gold has been testing key resistance levels at around the $2,300 per ounce Mark with the US dollar showing some weakness gold Traders are keenly watching for any signs of a breakout or a pullback from this critical threshold now over in the silver market volatility continues as industrial demand waxes and waines Silver’s dual appeal is both an investment and industrial metal is putting its technical indicators to the test we’ll be unpacking what this could mean for its price Direction in the near term and lastly Gary and I will discuss Bitcoin the cryptocurrency has recently corrected after a sharp rally and considering this pullback what can the historic data tell us about the potential future movements as Bitcoin setting up for another major surge or is this the beginning of a deeper retracement our friend Gary WB our resident technical analyst here at Kito news joins us now from Hawaii uh hey Gary thanks for coming on mate hope you had a great weekend I did and thanks for having me it’s uh good to do the show when these markets are moving in such an exciting manner yeah you’re not kidding there’s some definite volatility in the markets uh let’s start with gold I mean we talked a little bit about it uh two weeks ago bring that chart up because it’s currently testing the resistance level of around $2,300 per ounce obviously Gary you know we’re surrounded by global economic uncertainties we’re seeing uh economic data every week we have the continuing geopolitical tensions last time we had you on you talked about the flag formation what are we seeing now in Gold well we we’ll get to a flag formation in a second in terms of support and resistance areas um support is at 2300 and it that is a representation of this extension I’ve got a basic FIB EXT ension we use a fib extension if we’re going towards record highs all-time highs because if we haven’t been there before that’s one of the few ways to calculate it what I’ve done is putting an extension in that goes back to 2022 when gold is at about 1,800 up to about 2200 this big rally then we look at this correction which culminated a little bit below 1900 and start charting from there so from this point here at about 1900 the uh uh the extension that is a um a 68% extension comes in at 2146 2216 and then the onetoone relationship in other words if we look at this rally here and compare it to to this rally here that would culminate right here at about 2300 that’s why we’re pegging support at this level Jeremy you are correct because it was former resistance support and resistance are part and partial of the same thing so currently this same area is support and we’ve got resistance at the 1.23 6 at 2405 it did exceed that uh on that run up to the new all-time record high and then it’s come down and found support at about uh call it 2300 and so we want to look at these different areas we also want to look at the ultimate extension which is a 1.618 now this would be an exceedingly long-term Market move but I’ll show you why that’s important on the second chart on the second chart when we look at it what we see is that we talked about when we first started uh the chart this series um we talked about this compression triangle if it broke out it would indicate the market moving higher in fact it did and then we talked about a flag formation right here and we measure this pole to this pole this was our extension and the interesting thing is it came up right around here it far exceeded that but I’m kind of seeing another potential flag formation in that we’ve got our pole here we’ve had a sharp decline from these highs right in here and so if we see gold on a closing basis break Above This resistance line right here and it’s at a pretty strong tact a 53% angle we could and again this is on an exceedingly long-term basis I’m not talking about uh in a couple of days or even a couple of weeks or a month but this would be towards the third quarter of this year to the end of this year we could test 5500 but of course before we do that this is the key mark to be which is the recent alltime record high above 2400 interesting okay so potential for Q3 this year possibly later this year that $2500 gold Mark I mean there’s so many things going on Gary you and I have been talking about these all-time highs for you know months now and of course given the recent inflationary pressures and the softening of the US dollars from a technical perspective zoom in there and and let’s talk about the short term of what we could potentially see I mean if it’s 2500 towards the end of the year is this volatility to continue it it certainly could we don’t have any resolution to the uh conflict in Russia and Ukraine we have no resolution to what’s going on in Israel and so that geopolitical tension is still at a heightened level unquestionably inflation seems to be more persistent than the FED had hoped for and so that’s why we get these mixed messages from the FED they want to cut rates but they’re not going to cut rates if they do not see that the work they’ve done putting them on that trajectory to 2% and they’re pretty adamant about that they have really disregarded their dual mandate which is full employment and acceptable levels of inflation to focus on inflation and kind of look at employment that’s taken care of itself we’ve had a strong we’ve had strong economic growth so really what we want to see on a technical basis we’re up about $25 today and it has gone back over what we had as a level of potential support but it broke through there last week if it does close above this particular price point we’ll look at first this top at 2427 and then the all-time record high I believe it was 2428 short term we want to see if it breaks above this trend line so on a closing BAS is closing above call it 2350 to about 2360 that would give us the technical confirmation that we could be moving higher if we are we want to look above 2400 if it breaks below this we would look at about uh 2225 for potential support and that is an important level because you have this whole series of uh candles that coming below that and it really acted as a technical level of resistance right here now we’re seeing support come in at this price point okay the 2350 on the support side uh interesting we’ll keep an eye on that as I’m sure Traders are as you mentioned not a lot of sleep this weekend too keeping an eye on this Market uh let’s switch over to Silver I mean it’s been volatile of course especially because we have the industrial demand influenced by global economic forecast uh what are the critical technical s that Traders should be monitoring here Gary let’s let’s talk a little bit about this and how maybe economic data could impact these levels yeah I mean silver has garnered a life of its own it tends to sometimes move in unison with gold and sometimes not when it does it tends to outperform gold on the way up and outperform percentage draw Downs on the way down I remember this particular day that occurred about two weeks ago that’s when we saw silver open at about uh $29 per ounce and close that day at about 2750 so was just shy of a150 move to the downside I believe it was almost over 5% today we’ve got a rise well over 3% opening at about 2686 and currently at 2768 the key levels that we want to watch I think the most important level is based on a combination of a 50% retracement it’s not a fib number but Traders have been using that 50% Mark in terms of a correction and it has shown to be a valuable valuable price point to always look at but the fact that it corresponds with the simple 50-day moving average that’s this green line here tells me that this is solid and major support at 2640 it broke over the 38.2% FIB retracement at 27 26.5 cents and that being said you have 28 as an important number it’s based on these tops are coming right here the next technical level is 2838 with these record highs that came in earlier uh right at around $30 per ounce yeah it seems like 30 is that Mark you know that Mark where people are kind of waiting for it to go it almost touches and then it pulls back is that kind of the same thing that we’re seeing here absolutely what when we look at a Candlestick you’ve got the real body on a green candle you’ve got open and the higher close on a red candle you’ve got the open and the lower close but then you get the wick so the wick the upper Wick is the price action from the real body up to the high of the day and that is right here just over $30 is a wick you can see that right on this one that’s the longest Wick we have and you’ll look at lower wicks coming right to um support last week in other words as it was trading lower you had a strong down day you had the market trading sideways another strong break to the downside and then you had these series of lows that all came in on Friday Thursday and Wednesday right at around 2636 and that’s why I believe that that is a strong level uh traders that see it coming near the simple 50-day moving average and that is a benchmark that pretty much is a standard tool with Market technicians to look at the shortterm support and resistance levels the interim term we use a 100 day and the long term we use a 200 day which is one year of trading now I’m curious you know we just had some economic data show from the FED Jerome Powell talking a little bit about this potential global economic uh slowdown when it comes to Industrial demand possibly for silver it we could see that if industrial demand goes down maybe the demand for silver does too so I’m curious could there could any of this undermine any bullish technical setups like what are we thinking about here in terms of the new data yeah it certainly could provide some headwinds right but what I found most interesting about today’s move in both gold and silver where we had solid moves to the upside is at first analysts were looking at this um besides the uptick in a geopolitical concern with what’s going on with Israel um was a delayed reaction to the jobs report that came out on um Friday in fact on my weekly show and the weekend review I talked about that it was perplexing that the jobs report came in the way it did meaning that there were it it certainly came in well under expectations and we didn’t see a sizable move in gold in fact we saw the opposite and the same with silver this is silver on Friday and it didn’t quite jive with what we should see in other words there are certain relationships that we look for and those relationships get tested every time a new substantial data point comes out and the jobs report is an exceedingly important one we didn’t get that on Friday but we certainly got that delayed reaction today and that coupled with an uptick and geopolitical concern is really what moved the market uh substantially higher in both gold and silver yeah well said I mean Gary you and I were talking a little bit about the US dollar obviously uh we’ve seen a decline on the price the dollar Index is still on a decline indicating maybe a softening stance gu a basket of major currencies how does the current weakening impact Commodities like gold or silver is there anything that we should be looking at here you know typically inversely related to the dollar strength yeah it’s you correctly pointed out there’s a 100% negative correlation between the price of silver and gold and the dollar because both silver and gold are paired with the dollar for Value so if you remember we if we look back to let’s say pretty much March of this year we had the dollar coming down it find support just below 102 on the dollar Index and from 102 it travels as high is 106 in change so that’s a 4% gain as it relates to the currencies the basket of currencies that it trades against now last week and uh we’re looking at a daily chart so Friday Thursday and Wednesday Wednesday is H is when it hit its highest value in quite some time but it closed much lower that was a point in which either profit taking came in but it was unable to break and close above that so it was a signal to liquid and pull profits for Traders that were long the dollar it was also a signal for shorter term traders to actually go in and um sell that market and that’s why we got a strong move to the downside we had three solid red candles in a row and that that is a Candlestick pattern that indicates a continuation of selling however today we’ve got really an inside trading day uh not from the real body but from the total range of the dollar the dollar traded to a low of 10440 on Friday and a high of 105.2 four so you had a very solid range what I was impressed with with the Dollar on Friday was after hitting these lows you can see where it closed that’s the the bottom of this real body on a red candle so it traded to a extreme low when you consider that it opened at 10519 went down to 10440 so almost a uh a 7% move to the downside but then it recovered quite eloquently still closing lower on the day still trading with a lower low lower high and lower close today it came in it opened just below the close on Friday it closed just above the close on Friday but it wasn’t solid in any means it was a very small bodied candle and candlesticks we call it a spinning top could absolutely it doesn’t signal a reversal yet to the upside and we could see a continuation throughout the week of the dollar going lower we’ll have to see if it recovers tomorrow or if we get a close that’s below call it uh 104.7 okay 104.7 very interesting especially with the economic data coming out and of course the printing of the dollars watching these dollar price movements that’s for sure absolutely and and realize that during the fomc meeting that recently occurred they left interest rates unchanged a b they talked about that they really need to see something in terms of movement before they consider cutting rates they might have less rate Cuts most analysts are penciling in one or two rate Cuts I still believe that they’ll try to squeeze in two okay um but that that could be an incorrect assumption the one thing that you you want to look at when we look at something like this is how all of these markets work together and the dollar being absolutely sensitive to statements by the Federal Reserve and what was most interesting about we about what we saw was that although they did not cut rates and they left them where they are they made an important announcement about their liquidation of their asset balance sheet because the FED has been pulling money out of the money supply at about 95 million I believe it could be billion billion yeah the the numbers are so large large they confuse me sometimes 95 billion dollar per month and so what they said is that they’re going to continue to pull money out of of the money supply liquidating assets from the balance sheet but they’re going to do 30 billion less per month so they’re only going to be contracting the money supply by 65 billion rather than 95 billion so they’re still Contracting but they’re leaving an additional 30 billion per month that they weren’t leaving in prior to that and that’s an important thing that the FED has done because aside from interest rates that is the other effective tool in their toolbox to deal with inflationary pressures is balance sheet reduction qt or adding to the balance sheet which is QE yeah very important to watch the quanti quantitive tightening starting to take place Gary uh before I let you go because we’re almost out of time I want to talk a little bit about Bitcoin I mean obviously we had that sharp rally and then Bitcoin experienced a significant correction and I think it coming down around the 58,000 at some point there I take a quick look at this chart what are the technical patterns and indicators like RSI or macds what do they suggest about Bitcoin in a rebound or are we going to face further Corrections well I’ve got a basic daily chart of uh Bitcoin and when we look at that I’ve drawn in some Channel lines as well as a fib retracement from 3800 500 up to these This Record top at around 73 three when we do that we see that um 6,300 is a potential level we can see that we had these Wicks come into the area but we would close above and it moved up but what we’re really seeing is ever since hitting these highs we came down to about a 38.2% fib retracement at 60,3 we move to a lower high here a slightly higher high than this high but definitely was a lower high than the all-time record high and from there we can see that it kind of moved from upper level resistance down to a level of support back to resistance support is where it bounced off of early last week or uh a week ago a little bit over a week ago you’ve got um Friday Thursday Wednesday Tuesday this would be Monday’s candle last week and so now it’s right at this line which would suggest if it continues in the channel which is obviously a downward biased channel that it would come down and test this area however what we look for in a channel line is either a break below or a break above the upper level channel line so if we see Bitcoin for example rather than trading lower over the next day actually having an effective close Above This price point around 63,000 per ounce then we would look at various levels 65 66 70 and 71 would be the levels we’d want to see Bitcoin take out okay you were talking a little bit about major support if it came off as well what’s that around the $56,000 Mark uh well yeah major support and I’ve got it in red as the 50% retracement it has not really tested that you’ve had some Wicks or lows that came in close to that last week this is Monday and Tuesday of last week but it effectively closed back within the channel so what I’m seeing as potential support if we get um this Market to either move sideways or higher or even a little bit lower is going to be about 60,000 to 6,300 the 38.2% retracement because those were tested a few weeks prior to that if it does break out above this I would look for a move very quickly above 6500 $65,500 all right $64,500 Gary Wagner charting it all out for us today of course Gary Wagner thanks for coming on I appreciate your time uh we’re going to have to look at these levels and maybe get you on a little sooner you got it you got it great to be here thanks Gary have a great week I’m Jerry Sapp for all of us here here at kco news thank you for tuning in don’t forget to go and like that video heck even leave me a comment I read them we’ll see you next week [Music]

Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews Gary Wagner, Kitco’s resident technical analysis expert, in this episode of ‘Chart This with Gary Wagner.’ They begin with the current trends and future outlooks for precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Wagner provides insights into the technical indicators shaping the markets for gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and discusses how geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are influencing investor behavior.

Watch as Gary Wagner explains complex technical patterns like Fibonacci retracements and flag formations, giving traders and investors the tools they need to navigate these volatile markets.

Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://twitter.com/JeremySzafron)
Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW (https://twitter.com/kitconewsnow)
Follow Gary Wagner on X: @garyswagner (https://twitter.com/garyswagner)

00:00 – Introduction
01:19 – Discussion on Gold’s Current Market Position
03:42 – Technical Analysis of Gold’s Price Movements
06:09 – Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Gold
07:35 – Transition to Silver Market Analysis
11:19 – Economic Factors Influencing Silver Prices
16:29 – Examination of the U.S. Dollar’s Influence
18:51 – Insights into Bitcoin’s Recent Market Corrections

#KitcoNews #GaryWagner #GoldMarketAnalysis #SilverTrading #BitcoinTrends #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #PreciousMetals #CryptocurrencyMarket #goldprices #silverprice #commoditiesmarket
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