Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Plunge Before the Surge? | Arbitrum’s Breakthrough – What Comes Next?

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Plunge Before the Surge? | Arbitrum’s Breakthrough – What Comes Next?

Bitcoin has been trading all over the map but arguably in a sideways range but is this the big plunge that we’ve just seen below 60,000 is that the move that’s going to be the precursor to much more upside price action as the cycle continues more importantly today I’ve got stepen goldfeder from off the chain lab who contributing to arbitrum to talk about a crazy Milestone that arbitrum just had that I want to highlight for you guys of course on the back half I’ve got Tillman and Andrew from Arch public to update you on the portfolio there we got a lot to talk about guys can’t wait let’s go [Music] now let do what is up everybody I’m Scott mker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button as I said we’ve got a lot to talk about today I have an amazing guest who hasn’t been on the show before so I’m gonna just go ahead and bring him on Stephen goldfeder from off the chain Labs how are you man maybe first of all you can explain what uh being a contributor to arbitrum is uh when you are at Al the chain Labs yes absolutely and great to be here so I’m at offchain labs and co-founder and CEO there and arbitrum actually started off as an academic project uh in Princeton where uh I was involved together with my two co-founders and um then we spun up a company to develop the software today though um you know for about a little over a year now the arbitrum core techn the protocol arbitrum W and arbitrum Nova the chains have been decentralized there’s a dow um so we continue to contribute to the technology um and are you know leading tactical contributors but the community really uh owns the public chains and makes a decision of their future including technical uh Innovations and as well as uh spending and like and to give you an example what that means you know we can create new software we do and I’m happy to talk about some of that today some of the cool new software we’ve created but in order for that to get on the public chains that has to be a community decision and anybody actually can create new software just like we can to get there so we are contributing in a very significant way to arbitrum and we are the initial contributors to arbitrum but today it’s it’s an open and decentralized ecosystem right as I touched on beginning just bring this up really quickly arbitrum surpasses 150 billion in total transaction volume on Unis swaps the first layer too to do that can you talk about what total transaction volume actually consists of is this trading is this you know actual utilization is it fees what is it exactly yeah it’s it’s trading it’s uh trading volume if you look at um arbitrum on unisa is is probably uh definitely one of the top dexes in arbitrum if you look at arbitrum Cross um spot dexes as well as derivatives arbitrum is consistently leading uh in Defi and arbit the arbit one is leading in defi Innovation when someone does something interesting in defi they’re often doing that that on the arbitrum chain and um this is a milestone but the interesting thing is you might think well arbitrum has been around longer for some old chain some of these older chains so it had a head start to get to 150 but actually if you look at today’s numbers too arbitrum is the leading uh does leading volume every single day in terms of al2 today as well so not only is arbitrum leading in terms of the overall metric but every day it’s adding more to that than any other chain and that’s just a a symptom of arbitrum being the home of Defi and the leading defi chain but also home to other really exciting verticals as well yeah so you can see this right here it’s official arbit as the first C to and you can see that just incredible parabolic sort of hockey stick curve of I guess we’ll call it adoption or usage there but what like uh let me I guess ask you what excites you the most we have this world of seemingly 100 layer twos we have new ones every single day it’s hard I think for the average person to differentiate between them so what’s different between any of them arbitrum Etc so we have uh there are kind of two ways you can break that so there’s arbitrum one arbitrum Novo these are their public chains and arbitrum one as you just said in defi is doing like more than anyone else and again in today in today’s spot volume arbitrum did double its nearest competitor in l2s as well so it’s continuing to not only have that lead But continuing to expand that lead um and if you look at other metes like eth on chain arbitrum has more eth on chain and significantly growing faster than any all other l2s combined so it’s just sort of um very very um far ahead there but when you mentioned yeah there are a lot of other l2s as well and l3s also so lay chains that are building on top of of arbitrium and other l2s this is an increasing Trend and the cool thing is that most of these today are actually powered by the arbitrum technology stack so uh there’s the arbitrum sort of you could think of them as the like Marquee uh chains and then there’s all these other chains that are also powered by the arbitrum stack and also contributing back to the arbitrum Dow um as well so and by the way the really non-intuitive things here so there’s about I think roughly 35 announced chains we call these arbitrum orbit chains um some of these are L3 chains top of arbitrum one some of these are arbitrum chains on top of ethereum L2 is just like arbitrum but some of these are actually arbitrum chains on top of other LT so for example there’s a chain called dgen chain which is um the most popular layer three on the base blockchain that’s an arbitrum orbit chain that’s running arbitrum technology because it is the best technology to run your chain anywhere on ethereum the best execution environment in ethereum whether you’re building in the arbitrary ecosystem or elsewhere and that to me is really really cool so yes it gets a little confusing with all these chains but but most of them are actually powered by the arbitrum technology and contributing back to the arbitrum down yeah that that uh that that makes perfect sense you mentioned layer threes I had done an interview with um Stan deep from polygon at least a year ago if not more and we kind of went deep down that rabbit hole he says and he said there would be layer fives layer layer sixes layer sevens one day so then it comes to we we understand the competition here between layer twos but now it’s going to be scaling those layer twos and then competing with chains that maybe say you don’t even need layer twos at all you can do it all on one layer right so it’s funny because I remember there’s a so there there are some benefits of layer 3es and what they are is it’s basically you know to get onto layer two one is onboarding so to get your funds onto Layer Two say you’re on coinbase today you’re on binance so if you want to go to a layer two um for specifically for a new Layer Two that doesn’t yet have direct support from The Exchange you’ll have to go from the layer underneath it so if you’re onboarding via ethereum you’re going to your costs are going to be I don’t know tens to hundreds of dollars if you’re onboarding via a layer three to arbitrum one you can go from coinbase to arbitrum one because all that support is there and your your onboarding fee to this new chain is going to go down to like a couple cents so there’s like some massive like pragmatic benefits of layer 3’s uh technology for onboarding and keeping the fees low for new for new chains uh and the costs of us users on board but the cool thing is it actually mostly stops at three I don’t think we’re going to see this P varation to like layer 15 most of the technical benefits um would be the same at layer three as well as layer 4 and five which is you really nice so I think we’re basically seeing um most of most of that today there might be like some communities that form that’s another reason you’ll see additional layers like you’ll have like a base chain and you’ll have other layer threes in this universe like this is a design Paradigm we’re seeing where uh sort of a chain wants to be a chain of chains but from a technical perspective most of the benefits um stop at at layer three and I think uh we’re probably going to see mostly layer twos and threes and the funny thing is there’s like a little bit of a stigma today around layer three I a lot of people say I don’t want to be a layer three I want to be my own thing which is only funny to me because I’ve been in this space long enough to remember when that was a stigma to Layer Two you we were the first ones to to build a layer two we were the first ones out there in 2018 and earlier saying hey instead of launching your own blockchain you should launch a layer two blockchain on ethereum everyone’s like a layer two I don’t want to do that like that I want to be my own thing and now today everyone wants a layer two there’s some stigma on layer three but I feel like it’s the same trajectory three which over time uh that will go away yeah so you don’t think we necessarily need layer fives and sixes and sevens one day because if you talk about scale you know a billion people on ethereum you know something like that uh that’s a lot of transactions I don’t think so because actually from a scaling perspective you can put a ton of layer twos on ethereum we don’t even need layer threes for that the reason for Layer Three is are more pragmatic because if you want to build a chain you could do a layer two but your cost of onboarding users your cost of posting to ethereum is going to be is going to be AI way to think about it is for layer twos you have to take the carpol to ethereum you got to pay ethereum fees yourself if you’re layer three you can take the bus to ethereum right so you can package your transactions with all the other layer twos and go to ethereum so there’s some pragmatic benefits of being a layer three but they’re not actually the scaling benefits in the sense that you can you can put a lot of many many more layer twos on ethereum than we have today so um and those things don’t get cheaper in layer four or five so I think we’re going to see layer twos and layer 3es primarily like again we might see some of these communities we might have a layer three that wants to be a hub of chains you’ll see like lay layer four is on top of it but like from a technical perspective I think most of the benefits really stop a layer three which is a good thing because otherwise it would just be like dauny and confusing like every year are we just going to add in 10 years from now are we’re gonna talk about layer 100 so the good news is I don’t think so um and I think that it’s sort of the technical arguments really stop here and we’ll be able to focus on primarily Layer Two and layer three adoption let’s talk more generally about what you’re excited about that’s coming up obviously we have this sort of price action dip right that everybody loves to talk about but I think there’s still consensus that we’re generally in a bull market but every bull market we have sort of these segments of the market that go crazy right AI is up again today because Invidia is doing well and apple mentioned that they’ll have an announcement in two weeks or something that might be AI related right and you get the rwa real world asset hype and then it kind of diminishes and then again so what what do you think we’ll see come in the coming you know year 18 months that’s real that might be sort of a new killer app or sector for crypto that you’re excited about yeah so arbitrum as I mentioned is leading in defi today but two upand cominging sectors that it’s doing really well and I’m really excited about one is gaming U arbitrum has now probably about a dozen not games but gaming platforms that are building using arbit War building Arbitron chains these include um Z hopia this includes um ape chain from AP apoin Dow you know the from B Bak club uh in terms of culture uh auki recently announced anime chain in arbitr so there’s so much when it comes to like culture and gaming happen happening in arbitri one game I love a lot is pirate Nation by proof of play a fantastic fully onchain game which check out if you haven’t and there is so so many and I’m for sure going to leave some out because there are just too many but that’s one area where arbitrium is doing fantastically well and the other one which is actually a little bit counterintuitive and and almost surprising to see so quickly um just just happened yesterday there was a proposal in the arbitrum da where the arbitrum Dow has now earmarked about hundred million for rwa funds because you know there are a lot of these rwa funds that go on and then the question is how can the Dow accelerate the adoption well they can put a put aside some money to invest in these products that go on chain and you know get yield in it just like anyone else would so they’ve they’ve um the arbitrum D is air marked I think it’s about hundred million doar for that and the cool thing is and this just happened yesterday was on Twitter a bunch um really big like uh instit traditional institutions have been coming to The arbitrum Forum to ask for those funds you’ll see Franklin Templeton posting in the arbitr Forum saying hey could we be part of this program uh securitized on behalf of Black Rock went ahead and posted on the Forum so now you’re seeing like people always said like oh don’t actually decentralize just like kind of pretend and decentralization because you’re never going to like talk to a traditional financial institution like they’re never going to work with a DA arbitrum was like differentiated there it actually went ahead and did decentralize it set up a program that was enticing to you know trafy big big players and you’re seeing them actually come and work with the DA for interesting opportuni so that to me is like I always expected that to be completely honest I don’t think I expected to see it this quickly that is really really exciting to see Happ happening and those are some of the I would say rwa gaming and and uh defi are probably the three big pillars of adoption that I think we’ll continue to see on the arure network yeah I always kind of comment on the fact that we get really excited about these Trends and then nothing happens because it’s not ready right but then a cycle later we really start to see them come to fruition and I think you highlighted gaming and I think that to me is the one that has the best chance of really really blowing up in this cycle because I’ve seen so many games so many actual AAA gaming companies outside of crypto starting to talk about adopting and there are games to your point that have launched or are launching very soon that have sort of abstracted away the complexity of the blockchain side and it’s just a game where there’s a crypto aspect that’s exactly it where in the last cycle if you will um the games were blockchain first and game second and the consumers were like those who are like I love the blockchain and it’s so cool that I can play a game in my favorite blockchain and the world of those people is like even though like I’m immersed in that world all day and you probably are as well so like it it feels like it’s a lot of people but like if you zoom out there aren’t that many people that are like I’ll play a bad game just because I think it’s cool it’s on the blockchain the games of today are like you said tripa Studios like really really good games and games first and they’re appealing to large audiences if you don’t care about the blockchain you just want to play a good game you can still play a fully onchain game because they’ve extracted The Experience away and one of the reasons that games are predominantly choosing the arbitrum orbit stack is because it’s super fast the block times are like piffy like you expect in a game right if you go to uh a different blockchain and there’s a couple of seconds every time you press a button well that’s not going to be very fun and it’s also super cheap right if your wallet’s being drained every time you do something on chain also not going to be a very fun game for those that don’t care about the blockchain so I always say the blockchain needs to be additive it should add something for those that want it but it shouldn’t actually reduce the user experience for those that just say hey I’m just here to play a game I don’t care about this blockchain stuff and that’s okay we want to take maybe we’ll convert them eventually yeah and eventually they’ll be like oh I could take my asset like on and and own it and take it to a Marketplace that’s awesome or maybe they never will and that’s okay too and that’s I think the core difference like you know the pirate Nation I mentioned before Amit who’s developing that he he developed he was the one of the founders and Lead developers of Farmville like these are really really um established gaming players and that’s just one of many that are building um fantastic games on on the arbit ecosystem and broadly in on the blockchain so I do think we’ve had a bunch of false starts in game some were over financialized as well that was another theme where like you everything had to be earning and now it’s just like fun game and yeah backi Infinity where people were literally like quitting their jobs to just press buttons all day because it paid for slightly more than their uh job and people were setting up Farms of people to play the game for them just to make money it wasn’t about the game but it was a really good proof of concept I think yeah and you know it took us cycles and times to build we probably wouldn’t be here today if it wasn’t for those previous cycles and trying and understanding but I think it’s real now and I was actually at the G GDC which is like the big gaming developer conference in San Francisco a few months ago uh maybe a uh month a month and a half ago and blockchain gaming was like a massive theme there this is interesting because this is not like this is like where the developers are so you get to kind of see what the games of tomorrow if all the developers today are focusing on blockchain it kind of gives you a window okay so what are going to be the titles that come out in like a year from now a year and a half from now and that’s sort of the alpha you’re getting there and like the largest booths there including the Arbitron Booth were the blockchain booths and the largest center of attention there were the onchain web 3 gaming so I think that’s really here and here to stay and I’m very excited for the day in which we don’t say web 3 gaming we just say gaming and because that is yeah that’s what we need for everything right we need to abstract away all the like crypto terminology and complexity and the old Meme ux and UI for Grandma I just have to lap like there’s literally a story right here in coin this AI tokens lead crypto Market recovery as Nvidia hits one month high right so literally reflects exactly what I was saying yes it’s hard to take it seriously when you know we saw it that last cycle obviously you know meta uh Facebook rebranded to meta and every metaverse token went in insane but I guess that’s a part of the charm of of being here yeah absolutely so I think yeah you know but the nice thing is particularly if you’ve been in the space for long enough you see the trends where it starts off as hype and then it becomes real and more real and refines itself over time and like so it used to be for example people would just say hey just like throw everything on on chain like put your like medical data on chain I’m like I always like that’s like the dumbest idea that’s that’s not a really great idea let’s just say um now people are refining it and say okay let’s there Web Two web 3 from my perspective is not a replacement for web two it’s a complement for web two there are certain things that belong on web two like sh you know Distributing content locally that makes sense there are certain things where centralization makes sense and there are certain things where augmenting that with the ability to own and control and you know own and and web 3 U decentralization and censorship resistance ET really give you added benefits and finding the right not the lazy thing to do is just say all right get rid of web two and put it on web 3 the responsible and the hard thing but the thing that will actually lead to real adoption is saying where are those points where web 3 is actually the additive and we’re finding really good U um examples there I need to just cook through a few news stories and uh you don’t necessarily need to comment but it has to be mentioned that uh in the environment where we talk about all this building we also have to talk about the fact that the United States is aggressively trying to stop all of us uh from building it was mentioned yesterday but people who didn’t see uh Robin Hood got a Wells notice which was a pretty big uh news we saw consensus last week Unis swap recently obviously we all know about coinbase and Kraken and binance and all those things so great headline the SEC can’t stop suing crypto companies you have uh then you have um a wave of crypto enforement actions that’s coming within the next two years so the cfdc chair I mean it’s just a lot of rhetoric coming I think from All The Regulators even you know the C FDC does any of this like affect the way that um l2s are building people like you are moving forward or you just keep building its noise you maintain as compliance as you can and you know it’s just an interesting seem look tough time to be building certainly in the United States yeah we I think like many or most others that I speak to and obviously they’re always Bad actors in every place every space But like I think predominantly there are many many many more good actors uh in the crypto space at least the ones that that uh are building real protocols with lasting values and real users and um you know obviously more clarity is always good but we always do our best to make sure that we are on the right side and I think um that’s true for for most of the of the real builders in the space and you know I think one of the biggest requests over time is just give us more clarity and and let us know uh you know but we always obviously try to do our best um the nice thing about arbitrum as is that it is a decentralized network today I think that’s actually quite important um I do think that um there’s Central you know some there is some in some uh in some areas decentralization theater and Central in which are things that are sort of look decentralized but are actually centralized I think actually staying true to the real values and building the real decentralized thing is going to be the important thing uh you know we just keep building and that’s that’s uh what we do we keep building in the you know most uh true and compliant way that we know and that’s building really true decentralized technology and I think that’s uh you know obviously on hopefully more clarity will come but uh our mission is to continue building the real the real true thing and um I think that that’s true for you know most of the uh you know builders that I come across with that are building the real protocols that attract real users but sometimes um unfortunately like a few bad apples uh pollute the the the reputation of the ecosystem and sometimes I guess it’s hard for a regulator to really discern who are The Good Apples who are the bad apples and you know we see unfortunate uh ramifications of that what are your views on decentralization in general not like a topic I necessarily dis uh intended to discuss but to me we get caught up in the centralized or decentralized and it’s probably more of a sliding scale right I mean you you know there’s only so much you can be decentralized and still functional and then you obviously you have to talk about if you’re hosted on Amazon web server Google Cloud are you truly decentralized so like what are your thoughts on decentralization is it just a goal to be as decentralized as possible yeah so it’s definitely a sliding scale and uh actually like maybe counterintuitively I don’t think decentralization is the goal at all I think it’s the decentralization is the best tool that we know how to get to certain outcomes and those outcomes are more like things like censorship resistance open Innovation right the idea that people can like lowering the bar the barrier to entry for dii protocols or or gaming to actually build an an open economy and a shared economy in a way that uh you know C censorship uh is is not there’s not some some party that can like just shut your account down overnight uh because they decided they don’t like you and there’s like or just lock down your IP or things like that so I think there’s a lot of benefits of openness and and censorship resistance and other properties that are emergent at decentralization is the best way that we know of how to build that so um so decentralization does become sort of the intermediate goal to get there and there’s definitely a spectrum of decentralization when you have uh networks like ethereum like all the way on one end of of the of the spectrum I think Layer Two that are truly decentralized um are very very close to ethereum um and then you have networks that are I would call very centralized or de facto centralized right they might be decentralized in theory but considering the parameters of the network in practice there’s only a couple of people in the world that can actually participate in running the network those become U more centralized networks to ones that are like just AWS which is actually just centralized so the answer is like you said it’s definitely a spectrum over a spectrum um but I also think it’s important for us to remember why we’re here and you know I very very care very much about these properties and I care very much about decentralization but I also realize that as we expand to go mainstream more of these people that are coming in will care less and less and less about these cool properties right people might just be coming into crypto because they want to buy that cool nft and they don’t actually care that it’s decentralized but like we have to remain true to what we’re able to care I’m not here and I haven’t been here building for the past 10 years of my life to build something that ends up centralized just a different set of actors controlling it right that would be a big failure and that’s I think a difference of our industry right if you’re like selling widgets on Amazon all you care about the end of the day is how many widgets you sold right it doesn’t really matter know as long as you didn’t do anything super unethical to get there or like you know how many widgets you sold the end goal is what matters but when we’re building decentralized technology I think there are some some out there and you know one of my criticisms of other teams they they focus too much and too early on growth and that’s their sort of like leading metric where like no that’s not the way if we like grow arbitrum like to 100x but it turns out that we have to centralize in the process big big problem like send me I’m I’m out like like you know I don’t want any part of this right so we have to actually remain true to our building and say we have responsibility to those users and we think decentralization is important and we have to remain true to that even if the market now is saying ah you know we we we okay okay if you centralized because the theory is that there are true benefits of this technology and they will be emerging over time so U I think staying true to the values and not putting growth over sort of the values is sometimes hard to do and the best is to have both right arbitr is is decentralized leading decentralization and also leading when it comes to just about every growth metric um but that’s to me is the hard part which is not to get too focused on the growth metrics but actually make sure that you’re building the real deal at the same time and never compromising there really interesting stuff I have so much trouble not being non-technical differentiating between all of these things and now of course maybe it’s a conversation for another day but now of course you have everybody attempting to build all of it on bitcoin too um so uh there’s just a lot going on the ecosystem but at the end of the day I think it’s just really encouraging to see how many people are passionately building absolutely and that’s you know the the the really thing to focus on here there are so many really amazing builders in the space and sometimes we get competitive with each other but uh we’re all uh or most of us are rowing in the same direction and trying to you know find the ways to actually be bring this decentralized new Innovative technology to mass market and um I think that there’s a lot more in common that we have with our quote competitors than than not and we’re all sort of doing uh there’s a lot of shared benefit from the work that we’re doing so yes there’s this is early on and their pie is there is growing so much and we all sort of um you know I think are contributing to to the same uh result awesome Stephen really great Insight thank you I’d never really dug in deeply to arbitrum and we hadn’t certainly done a show on it so it was really helpful to get all that Insight everybody you can follow Stephen has uh Twitter X whatever we’re calling it these days is down in the description I I highly encourage you to follow thank you so much it’s pleasure thank you for having me awesome guys really great insight there I you know like I said I’m so busy making content to doubt it you know I just see all these uh layer twos and layer 12s and 19s and get caught up in the weed so it’s good every once in a while to get some uh insight as to how they’re differentiated I want to briefly before I bring Andrew and Tilman on I want to talk about uh the title here bitcoin’s wild wild ride plunge before the surge this is based on this article Bitcoin rebound has crypto options Traders anticipating 100K so I don’t know how we’re talking about 100K when we simply Bounce from the 50s to the 60s but this is basically on the fact that there’s exceptional bullish Market sentiment with higher call contracts than puts at the moment and those calls are largely in the 70 to 100K region for out ofth money calls so just shows you that uh we’re back to having Traders even though we’re ranging sideways starting to make bets on future price action being much higher now these are for end of the year I think it’s uh very likely they’ll hit uh if they’re in the coming week or two months I don’t know we’ll see maybe we’ll get some uh Insight from the men from Arch Public public Tillman and Andrew good morning gentlemen good morning how are you good morning Scott I wish I was where you are where where what is that background that I’m looking at this is a reflection of the beach in front of me in Puerto Rico nice uh down here uh exploring my libertarian values with the crypto guy I was I was with Peter Schiff for like two hours last night we didn’t even argue about Bitcoin and gold at all wow we just talked about life in Puerto Rico it was amazing uh actually a really H fun and entertaining guy to be around but uh it’s been a good time down here but uh I’ll be traveling uh soon so won’t won’t be on tomorrow you should go you should go throw some fruit at David Bailey he’s he’s running around in Puerto Rico somewhere down there you yeah he’s just he he’s like the king of a certain neighborhood here I don’t want to get into deeply into it but uh jokingly the guys where I’m at are like he’s the Scarface of this other neighorhood big house you know like the citas with people in his family and stuff so yeah there’s there’s a huge Bitcoin Community uh yeah down here so it it’s a good place I’d never been so I figured I would come down uh check it out take some meetings and uh yeah hang out for for sure so want to talk about what you guys are doing though maybe give us a quick update what’s going on yeah sure we had a losing trade um the day that we had our last uh podcast with you uh 430 it gave back 2.8% of what we had made this month or over the last uh you know 30 days of trading uh it still is a an important lesson and kind of what we wanted to go through today is why automation helps you when you’re in a losing trade and so let’s look at the chart right now and um we took this opening long right here and uh this was indicative of the Gap so this was betting that the overnight Gap was going to get closed which the Gap was down so we took a long position uh that long position it did not reach its profit Target it got capped out right here uh and it turned against us we stayed in because the automation didn’t reach its stop loss through this violent downturn and then this rocket ship back up so all of this if you’re live trading this this is what we call the emotional whipsaw roller coaster this this is the ride you don’t want to take because most people make very bad decisions when when these types of whips saws happen so then you go straight back up you reach this cap again you can’t pierce it and then boom you have this waterfall effect that takes you down to your stop loss okay well it’s very very psychologically hard to time your entries and your exits when the market is whipsawing like this but there’s no emotion involved to the exit of the automated strategy you set that as a user prior to turning it on you could be completely asleep away at the gym at your regular job you could be doing whatever else you want to do and you don’t have to suffer the whipsaw you’re oblivious to it there’s something that is driven that’s managing that emotion for you and getting out at predetermined levels that you had already prescribed to prior to the trade being placed so um it’s a it’s a tool that’s in my opinion the Crux of why automation is going to be here to stay is that it removes human emotion both good and bad um so let’s take it from here let’s just say I was manually TR trading this and I see this bounce and I see this rounding bottom well most traders that are technical in nature are going to say okay we’ve got a rounding bottom after a big waterfall there’s going to be at least a 50% retracement into this fair market value Gap and so I’m I’m G to I’m going to play this like this could be a nice uh Long play right here well what does it do it does exactly what the market always does the opposite of what you think it’s going to do and it turned against you and it took it all the way down to the very bottom of the depths of the chart right right by the uh the the performance um report so most people if they were manually trading it including myself would have exited much much lower than the stop loss was triggered and so the point here is is that this this trade on a $10,000 account would have lost you 281 $125 and um we think that’s a measured uh loss like we think we feel really good about those losses because we know human nature would have caused us to lose a lot more than that if we were trying to catch it manually and so that’s really the the lesson here is that you have predetermined stop losses that are half the length of your potential profit targets well that builds you this mechanical advantage of having a profit Factor greater than two and that’s that’s really um you know exposure to profit factors greater than two and exposure to winning percentage rates that are greater than 50% is is where you want to stay and and and trading automation allows you to measure that on a day-to-day basis well here’s the good news this trade didn’t turn into a catastrophic loss why well number one the stop loss took us out at a $281 125 loss number two um there’s no trade that we could have placed today that would have lasted into the overnight session so every day you get to wake up with this fresh mentality this fresh perspective and you get to take it um you know for what the day can bring you based upon that measured approach and not bringing any of the past losses because if you’re carrying a loss overnight and you wake up the next day and you pull up your account and you see that the overnight session has gone against you even more psychologically that’s very very hard to to overcome um for getting yourself in the right mindset to make good decisions for that day so it’s really the avoidance of of of all of this stuff is is the emotional roller coaster is the main thing that you’re you’re focused on I still believe you took a loss and you’re admitting it in public I love that that that’s the whole point right I that transparency the fact that nobody’s claiming it’s perfect you just win more than you lose and as you said your runners run a little further than your losers do very simple but people just we all it up when it’s actually our turn to to do it manually well and we’re not hiding the strategy behind what this this automation is doing you can manually trade this if you think this is a great sound strategy and you’re going to trade the opening Gap there’s nothing that keeps you from waking up at 6:30 in the morning and sitting at your computer and trying to beat all all the auto at strategies into the market on that opening candle you can do all that we just know that it’s really really difficult and it’s very time consuming and it eats you up emotionally and so what is automation doing for you in this instance it’s allowing you to participate in trades that you otherwise wouldn’t or shouldn’t participate in because it’s too taxing on your your your life um so it’s it’s exposure and diversification into time periods and portions of the market that otherwise you kind of tend to ignore because they’re too intense and they require too much attention yeah Andrew any thoughts yeah the thoughts are is that there’s you know our our algorithms are associated with at minimum three levels of math and sometimes four right so you’re talking about a stoploss layer three and four yeah there are layer three and four with our algorithms but as Tillman mentioned you know you you’re you’re looking at over time a 25 year period of a better than 60% chance that that Gap is going to close so that’s layer one of math right Layer Two of math is a profit Factor above two plus right that’s another layer of math right then you’ve got stoploss protection that’s another layer of math right and then our Martingale strategy inside of of our Gap strategies that’s another lay of math so we’re now on layer four Scott as as as you like to say we we’d like to get more layers but but that’s four layers of math associated with an algorithm um that you can set it and forget it and again with our institutional great execution Partners uh all you got to do is just simply follow it on your phone you you’re you know you’re not downloading the platform you’re not following charts you’re not stuck in front of your computer right you can leave your computer and go have fun in Puerto Rico and uh do whatever it is that you want to do um and let the algorithm do its thing it’s it’s it’s it’s layers and layers and layers of math that are working for your benefit without your emotional involvement before I go back to having fun in Puerto Rico Andrew I have to throw you some red meat I can’t help it was gonna let it go but uh Grace scills spot Bitcoin ETF log second day of net inflow so the good news is that we had all the outflows last week those have been more than compensated for in inflows uh you know I think Eric B chunis had a great tweet Thread about it basically saying listen this proves that people aren’t paperhand we dropped you know 20% and they largely didn’t sell a few of them 90% of the people I think he said held but uh how is grayscale listenor I know there’s two ways to answer this question right there’s measured and considered and there’s conspiracy theory right so I’m going to start with measured and considered they have Billboards across every airport in America and they they advertise to the 17 people that daily watch CNBC so some of those people decided I want access to a Bitcoin ETF and they chose grayscale and their ridiculous fees the conspiracy theorist in me says I wonder who decided to put 60 some million dollar into the most expensive Bitcoin ETF on the planet the day that that happened H I don’t know I wonder um there are folks that that certainly can do that and and oh by the way deposits into Bitcoin ETFs are not onchain you can’t go find who put it in there right so um yeah I I don’t know man I don’t know who’s buying a Bitcoin ETF that has 150 basis point uh you know fee that that doesn’t make any that’s the beauty of the law of efficient markets is time will tell because no one will continue to buy premiums that that they don’t have to buy if they’re knowledgeable about you know an alternative that doesn’t have those premiums so you know time time will flush this out is the point well and they had they had those inflows you know kind of at the they had the biggest the longest history of outflows in the history of like ETFs like 8 some days in a row right it was like you know I think Eric put out a tweet that had like the blood Russ on The Shining or something right it was crazy um well maybe it’s like a good restaurant like if I see a bunch of people coming out of it I go into it thinking you learn the hard way when that happens [Laughter] generally D’s doing a good job of playing defense on my potential conspiracy theories that could come out of my mouth right now so I I’m I’m Gonna Leave it right there I oh I I just believe in the simplest answer is most likely the the right answer or the truth and the simplest answer to me is that Bitcoin carries a very big brand and there’s a lot of people out there that do a lot of crazy and dumb stuff including pay too much I mean go to the airport and see how many people are buying bags of peanuts for $17.50 I mean it’s uh it’s yeah I don’t know and then you know and then I I do have to go but Andrew then the SEC just with the wells notices man yeah it’s not going to slow down uh and the reason you know I love John Eaton right great guy running for for Senate in Massachusetts um but the reality is is he’s running against uh Elizabeth Warren that’s not you know that’s going to keep the pressure on uh that’s that’s flat out going to keep the pressure on and she’s going to keep you know uh twisting the the knob with with Gary gendler and and it the reality is what we’re seeing on the ground you know the wells notices are going to keep coming you know Robin Hood has been in crypto for six years and not a peep out of the out of the SEC and they delisted all and they delisted everything that the SEC was kind of labeling yeah tons of meetings with the SEC they’ve had conversations lots of conversations and uh so it’s just um yeah it just kind of is what it is right now what I will say though and I put out a tweet late last night to buy as much Bitcoin as you can right now and that it’s going to 150k one of the reasons behind that thesis is is that all of this action against you know uh Securities and and and all that stuff it’s going to keep pushing people into Bitcoin it’s gonna keep pushing the money into Bitcoin right it’s gonna be a consolidation of the market for sure yeah 100% I mean we’ve seen that right I mean the spot ETFs that money is the what’s quote unquote different this time is that that money doesn’t flow down you knowre fast but if it’s sitting in an IRA and ibit correct no way there’s no way to decide one day that you want to go flip That Into You Know dog dog with hat dog with hat and then flip it back when you you know so yeah I think that that’s is what’s different so before we go we got to uh you know we talked about obviously the losing trade there which has great transparency really small loss in line with what someone would do if they had perfect risk management uh how could people get involved I know we’ve seen a ton of people in the chat are a part of it so uh yeah just want to give this off Pitch well it’s you go to theu.s per month um and it’s a it’s a proof of concept product where you’re going to you know there are percentages associated with our product on the website it’s it’s clear and concise and our conier program we bring people on every month those are larger products that people can put more assets into and and benefited on a bigger scale um but we we’ve brought on a ton of folks in the last three months everybody’s really satisfied um and we focus on the service and the process and the concept of what it is that we do uh we don’t love to run around with a big old sign saying you’re G to make this much money right we want people to really commit to the process of automation we had a conversation I had a conversation yesterday with a couple of guys um who said we’re really interested in the coner program like you know what’s the background here and they like we made a ton of money in 2021 on nfts they maybe the only people that did um and they said but it’s it’s exhausting right we want something that we can commit to where we don’t have to spend our entire day committed to the process of going through it and that’s exactly what our brand is it’s the math uh behind layer one layer two layer three and layer four and there’s an entrylevel product that you can get feed and I would just add to that if you’ve ever heard of automation it does exist you can actually use it on your own computer we will give you the software to do that for that $99 subscription fee we can prove to you that you can have a real tool that removes the emotion that allows you an advantage in your trading activities um and that’s us-based with trade station being the broker dealer uh that manages all the trades and the plat platform that you download so it’s uh it’s it’s as um customer friendly as any automation that exists we that’s the point of this is to educate people and bring them into um the education and into the relationships with us trade station and whoever other execution partner is if they so if they choose to go that route it can be a completely seamless process where by which they’ve got all the experts to help them in those various areas awesome guys thank you appreciate the alpha as always uh I’m GNA go uh try to hit the beach before it rains so uh everybody else that’ll be off tomorrow so I’ll be traveling awesome man thanks for the time we appreciate you peace guys of course man I still don’t miss him when I when I when I have a chance all right guys thank you so much everybody else I’ll see you I guess uh tomorrow afternoon I will be back but uh and then on Thursday morning thanks guys have a good one [Music] let’s dop

I am joined by Steven Goldfeder, Co-Founder and CEO at Offchain Labs, the company behind Arbitrum, the leading Ethereum’s Layer 2 solution. My friends from The Arch Public, Andrew Parish, and Tillman Holloway, are joining in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.

Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/

Steven Goldfeder: https://twitter.com/sgoldfed
Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus
Tillman Holloway: https://twitter.com/texasol61

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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.