There are 3 Chipotle locations near me and lately every time I go (to any of them) I leave feeling angry and disappointed.

    More than 50% of their customers are millennial and Gen Z and they are 20% more likely than average to have incomes of >$125,000 (according to NY Post article). Is that this crew? Margins are also 16% which is crazy high for the restaurant biz.

    Their stock performance has obviously been consistently great while the quality of the burrito has consistently gotten worse. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disconnect between stock performance and the quality of the product.

    The reason I ask is because I think I’m gonna short it. Except for their diehards, I just don’t see how their customers can continue to choose to eat there.

    Edit: Stock splits on June 6. Would short or buy puts after. Edit 2: Vote is June 6, stock split June 26 (thanks Derelict5432).

    How many of you guys eat chipotle?
    byu/CushionBoyReturns inwallstreetbets



    Posted by CushionBoyReturns

    41 Comments

    1. No_Improvement_6637 on

      been thinking ab it too. wait until the stock split. Will look more bullish before Q2 earnings comes out and you should be able to get cheap puts (they’re like 25k+ rn lol)

    2. derelict5432 on

      What’s with these back-to-back bearish posts on Chipotle. Burritos at my local are still fat af. People have periodically bitched about portion sizes, but it’s bullshit. Shares are currently around $3200. That’s gonna be an expensive short. I’d love to see your positions if you go for it, regard.

      Edit: They’re [actually officially voting on the split on June 6 and splitting on June 26](https://ir.chipotle.com/2024-03-19-CHIPOTLE-BOARD-OF-DIRECTORS-APPROVES-50-FOR-1-STOCK-SPLIT#:~:text=Chipotle's%20shares%20are%20expected%20to,Wednesday%2C%20June%2026%2C%202024):

      >The stock split is subject to shareholder approval of an amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock to accommodate the stock split. The company intends to seek shareholder approval for this amendment at its upcoming annual meeting on June 6, 2024.

      >If the Certificate of Incorporation amendment is approved, shareholders of record as of June 18, 2024 will receive 49 additional shares for each share held, which will be distributed after market close on June 25, 2024. Chipotle’s shares are expected to begin trading on a post-split basis at the market open on Wednesday, June 26, 2024.

      Also, I forgot the most regarded aspect of shorting Chipotle. [They now have a guacamole-making robot called Autocado](https://newsroom.chipotle.com/2023-07-12-CHIPOTLE-PARTNERS-WITH-VEBU-TO-TEST-AUTOCADO-PROTOTYPE,-A-ROBOTIC-SOLUTION-TO-GUACAMOLE-PREP). How fucking regarded to you have to be to bet against a fucking guacamole-making robot?

    3. You-Asked-Me on

      The stock price has tripped since they added queso to the menu.

      It is the WORST QUESO in the world.

      The stock market is completely irrational.

    4. Revolutionary-Tie911 on

      Nope, I slowed down on eating out over last 2 years. Literally have not gone to chipotle ever

    5. ZookeepergameTasty25 on

      They can survive off the so-called diehards. I don’t live in a major area anymore, however, the local chipotle is consistently packed. I’m talking like 20 people within the first 30 minutes of opening on a regular Tuesday. I’ve also not noticed the decline, it tastes exactly like it did a decade ago.

      That being said, the current share price is bs. Still wouldn’t short it.

    6. gnocchicotti on

      The most bullish thing for Chipotle is that all the shittier fast food restaurants have raised their prices to match Chipotle. So it’s a relative value and their margins are OK.

    7. LiquefactionAction on

      Chipotle takes all the little online and delivery paypigs for a ride and gives ’em less food than if you order in-person. YouTubers have done things like weigh every order for 30 days and tracked out weights for various stores and different orders.

      https://preview.redd.it/zdxfl7dfa91d1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bd4191e1705afeb60eedb11eea926e6165820aa

      I’m bullish and bought calls after finding out they’re suckering introverted rubes who buy online whereas us alpha males who buy in-person get fat ass af burritos loaded to the brim bursting at the seams 👌 . Literally cant go tits up, this is going to the moon at this rate. 🚀🚀

    8. Productpusher on

      Now it’s a normal human size portion that 1 person should be filled from but we are all fat fucks and need 2-3 servings .

    9. lonesharkex on

      one of my local ones closed for health reasons and has been shut of at least 2 months.

    10. The real point through this entire post is that despite the quality dropping, you’re still going to Chipotle.

    11. Great taste (imo), good portions, pretty good dine-in experience considering it’s technically fast food, feels healthy, love the water cup freebie (no one putting water in it), fair price

      I keep coming back, no complaints.

    12. Yesterday I almost throttled a little autistic kid that stood 1’ away from me the entire time I assembled my burrito. So close that the cashier asked if our order was together.

      I’m with you… I always leave pissed off. I have eaten there probably 10 times this year on my way home hoping they get better (new location). Only ONCE has there been fajitas… I was so shocked, I actually took a picture.

      The one thing they have on Qdoba is that they don’t ask for a tip… which turns out has been a deciding factor in where I eat. Qdoba is about 20X better but 1.5X as expensive.

    13. Curious_Chessie1020 on

      Pretty sure there’s a sub for how bad the chipotles in the entirety of the Baltimore area all are. Constantly out of stock, terrible employees, health department shut downs and the like

    14. f0xap0calypse on

      I eat there all the time. I don’t care what their margins are it’s the only place I can get a meal over 50g of protein for around 10 bucks. I wouldn’t bet against them over other fast food.

    15. Imagination_Drag on

      Don’t be stupid. There is always the post split run up. Wait for the run up then short or buy puts.

      Your analysis is terrible lol though. You didn’t mention the crazy PE ratio for example but whatever

    16. SummerVast3384 on

      Lots of people on here eat Chipotle consider you can find one in lots of areas.

    17. i eat a huge dinner daily of beans, rice, potatoes. all pressure cooked. all cooked at home. all having been cooked wet in a pressure cooker. i fast the next day. until dinner. then repeat. this is all about eating glucose to charge glycogen.

      so, when i’m on the road, i’m looking for beans and rice for dinner. chipotle is fine for that if i can’t find anything else to meet my needs. which i usually can’t find. the fast food world of the US doesn’t eat the way i do.

    18. pinballrocker on

      Never, it’s terrible food. The one by my work is always empty. There are two actual Mexican places within a block with waaaaaaay better food.

    19. BlackberryMountain97 on

      I just had my first bad experience at a chipotle in Montana. It was 6:30pm. They were out of everything. The manager was complaining about “them not scheduling us enough workers”. He looked at me and said “I guess I’m going to lock the f’ng door and let them lose money”. Then he did. People kept walking up and pulling on the door and looking in and getting a shoulder shrug. It was kinda funny, but I’m glad we got in last. If this is any indicator, your short may be wise. My hometown one is great but the quality has suffered

    20. CMG is in my “short” list. So is Wing Stop, Lululemon, Carvana, Wayfair. And a couple banks.

    21. Chipotle franchisees are required to build in threes. You will always find groups of 3 of them because it’s required by the company.

    22. VPofAbundance on

      Honestly I would agree with you 100% until today. I just went in for the first time and legit had the best burrito bowl I’ve ever had there. Last 3 times at other locations were shit, but this spot (I was just passing through town) was on point.

    23. futuresman179 on

      I go, but mainly because there is no better alternative, and I can track the calories easily at chip-ottle.

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