Here’s When The Crypto Bull Run Will End

Here’s When The Crypto Bull Run Will End

chances are you’ve noticed it we’re in a Bitcoin bull market Baby Woo btc’s up more than 30% since the 2022 bottom alts like salana wowers dog wh hat they put the dog on The Hat it’s staying on it went crazy now does this mean it’s time to consider taking some money off the table maybe it’s getting late in cycle it’s all over or is there fuel left in the tank are we just getting started when might this bull run actually end well to answer this question we’re going to first zoom out on the macroeconomic landscape and then Zoom back in to peek at some very crypto specific technicals and indicators that we like to use to say well maybe the Top’s coming maybe it’s not let’s talk about the stock market first I know we’re not just in a crypto bull market but also in a bull market for stocks hitting new all-time highs again crazy while these assets are not totally correlated the fact is is that like stocks crypto is influenced by macro conditions and risk on risk-off attitudes in broader investing markets so let’s look at our neighbor assets over here and try to assess how far the bull market progress is fidelity jurian Timmer has looked at historical stock bull markets and averaged the percentage gains and the duration the black line is the current bull market now Timmer concludes over the past 100 years the median bull market has produced a gain of 90% spanning around 30 months by that measure there should be some life left for this cycle so if 12:00 is the start of the cycle compared to the longest Cycles in history it’s only around 3:00 p.m. right now still some time based on the average cycle it’s around 600 p.m a little bit later but still plenty of juice in the tank the takeaway from this indicator is that we could be roughly halfway through the current stock bow Market pointing at a top around the summer of 2025 which would be a bit earlier than four-year Bitcoin cycle enthusiasts might Hope For What would be a top to come in later 2025 around October November December as always watch for top signals to flash go watch my top signals video if you want some help identifying some of those top signals that we so commonly see in the cryptocurrency market link below let’s talk about global liquidity man this is what really moves markets look some more General indicators can be important to watch out and there’s a whole bunch of indicators that analysts like to look at to gauge what stage of the bull market we’re actually in so the ism is such an indicator it’s also known as the purchase managers index or PMI and it’s a monthly indicator of US economic activity the ism tells us that something about where we are in the business cycle the business cycle of course is the time that it takes the economy to go through all four phases of the cycle expansion Peak contraction and trough in crypto we often use Seasons to talk about this summer winter spring that kind of stuff right now as you can see we are in the stage right now where economic activity is starting to pick up now why is this important well macro analysts often pull up these indicators and correlate them with for example stock market prices and or Global liquidity aka the ease with which money is available to ape into assets and Global Financial markets driving up the prices which is what we all want well we will come to the correlation between ISM and liquidity in a second but here’s a chart of global liquidity by Torsten SLO head Economist of Apollo it measures liquidity by adding up Bank Reserves and money market assets the Apollo chart shows that there is currently record high liquidity waiting to push stock prices higher once the FED starts lowering interest rates which probably coming later this year especially considering the inflation data we just got the other day some of the six trillion dollars six trillion dollars of money market funds is likely to find its way into stocks and yes into crypto there certainly is enough fuel there for continuation of the bull market for some time hundreds of billions are going to come back in indeed past Cycles have proven that Global liquidity is a super important uh variable in the way in which it correlates with crypto prices and is definitely not to be ignored after all what do you think will happen with prices of a flood of money from traditional Finance system starts chasing relatively small assets such as crypto plus of course all the Central Bank printing going on us is printing China’s printing everyone’s printing now this chart here by R pal shows how the ism inverted for clarity in this chart correlates very well with global liquidity Ral pal extrapolates that the way the ism will behave and overlays the global liquidity chart on it fascinating just look at it to be exact the year on-year change of global liquidity the grow grow of global liquidity is projected to Peak somewhere in Fall of 2024 or possibly in early 2025 now this by the way doesn’t mean that crypto will Top at that exact liquidity acceleration Peak but it’s suggests that the most violent part of the bull market coincides closely with that Peak rate of change so that suggest Peak frenzy around potentially this fall we shall see how that plays out or again early next year you can see in this chart that the highest year-on-year accelerations or decelerations of global liquidity tend to coincide with the fiercest run-ups and crashes of Bitcoin so what about the previous cycle when BTC peaked in November 20121 not visible on the chart as the chart is uh about price change not absolute price still though the percentage change of global liquidity had peaked roughly 10 months earlier so what can be taken away from this well if liquidity and the way that crypto is correlated to it play out roughly the same way as this previous cycle then BTC will Top out roughly 10 months after September 20124 so looking at summer 2025 which is a nice bit of Confluence with earlier timing of the predicted bull market top for Stocks by jury and Timmer of course of that ends up being early 2025 then we take it out to the end of 2025 for the market Peak for extra dramatic effect ra pal recently shared this chart of global liquidity in absolute terms nice little wedge pattern there isn’t it ready to explode to the upside or so it seems now before we talk about Bitcoin dominance which is something we should be paying a bit of attention to I did want to let you know that every week my team and I produce the wealth Mastery newsletter this is the best damn newsletter in the crypto Biz I know I’m biased cuz my news leer but we work super hard to try to save your time and help you stay ahead of the Curve with all the latest happening with altcoins memec coins Defi airdrops and much much more all condensed down and something you can read over your morning coffee or on the train into work you can join 125,000 plus weekly readers for free using the link Down Below in the description thank you very much now let’s move on to that more familiar Turf crypto that’s all the macro stuff very important don’t ignore it what we can say about the progression of the bull market from the way Bitcoin behaves in relation to altcoins let’s have a look well in this chart you see how in both the previous and the current cycle Bitcoin rallies first after which altcoins tend to catch up think of it as Bitcoin throwing the first punch in a rally and then riding on those Bitcoin wins investors start playing dabbling in the altcoin jungle hunting for the next big treasure it goes like this one money flows into Bitcoin two Bitcoin starts Rising Three Bitcoin dominance Peaks four people cycle BTC profits into alt five altcoin dominance Peaks six the market tops and then starts crashing yeah that’s you don’t want to be holding at that point it’s this altcoin season phase the bull market that we haven’t really seen yet people haven’t cycled their BTC gains into alts at least not in a big way we’ve seen many versions of this but nothing in a big way yet you can see what a true altcoin season looks like by charting the dominance of BTC the percentage that it represents of the total cryptocurrency Market we see that true alt seasons are quite rare lots of money’s made in altcoins in the last 18 months to be clear but an ALT season is defined as a longer period where altcoins rise much faster as a whole Market than Bitcoin measured as a percentage of the market the last major major alt season we had was in early 2021 the orange line is BTC dominance the blue line is percent of market cap of altcoins outside of the top 10 in the current bull market BTC dominance is still on the rise course there’s no guarantee obviously that we’re going to see another wild massive altcoin rally season but historically speaking it has happened on many occasions including in the 2017 bull market which again not even on the above chart because it’s just so so small so far away takeway take away this we haven’t seen a true alt season in this bull market suggesting that we are not yet in the Final Phase of this bull market we still have plenty of gas in the tank not even close in my opinion so when bull markets get overheated and near their inevitable end which will come all kinds of signals start to flash for example and again go watch our top signals video link in the description the so-called mayor multiple Rises very sharply and exceeds the value of two a short explanation here a mayor multiple above one means a price above the 200 day moving average which is roughly the demarcation between Bull and be conditions the Blue Line right below the BTC Price Line the further the mayor multiple rises above one the greater the distance between the 200 day moving average and the price the higher the uh mm the greater the market frenzy implying that maybe a phase of cooling off is going to be coming soon on the horizon Traders will take profits and even long-term holders will start to cash out at least part of their Holdings at a certain percentage in profit always happens as you can see from the graph we are still far removed from the overheated levels that marked previous tops takeaway the value of an onchain indicator like the mayor multiple doesn’t necessarily signal a phase of Market frenzy yet in fact it seems to be quite far from it so let’s finally look at an indicator that has in previous bull markets quite well coincided with Market tops now of course the infamous Pi cycl toop indicator you can clearly see when these two moving averages that this indicator tracks cross we have historically been with in days days it was like two or three days from the top previously in the last cycle re Capital who writes the technical analysis parts for our newsletter sometimes reflects on this behavior of this indicator So based on the recent trajectories of these moving averages he predicts they could cross as soon as February 2020 of course this project crossover date is a moving Target because these moving averages are continually updating and it changes every day so if for example the Bitcoin price were to consolidate or drop more the crossover date gets pushed further into the future maybe we get to that summer 2025 again um now look these are all just indicators okay to be clear it’s not like the COO CEO of bitcoin’s out they’re looking at the pi cycle chart and shouts out okay guys the indicators flashed it’s time to get out bull market over by the way alts usually Peak around two weeks after the pi cycle top indicator flashes just FYI all the indicators we discussed are just that by the way they just give indications they’re not foolproof all right they all point in the same direction though and that is that the bull market Peak is likely still quite someway away with a lot of Confluence coming from mid 2025 which is very interesting but let’s watch for those top signals to start flashing because when the time comes a lot of them are going to be flashing you’ll either pay attention to those signals or you will not and the market will take all your profits away from you and you’ll be left in the next bare Market with your bags down 99% being a Community member sitting around in a dead telegram with the three other guys who didn’t sell anything crying instead you could be off on your yacht in the Caribbean with the wife and the kids and your Financial Freedom secured what life do you want make it happen thanks for watching

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00:00 Intro
00:37 Stock bull market Progress
02:13 Liquidity
07:15 Bitcoin dominance
09:29 Technical indicators
12:03 Conclusion

#bitcoin #crypto #investing
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Disclaimer
Everything expressed here is my opinion and not official investment advice – please do your own research before risking your own money. Lark Davis (The Crypto Lark and affiliated brand Wealth Mastery) is not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Lark Davis registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Lark Davis is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.