I am confused about the expected returns of options positions.

    I know that the sum of option markets returns should be zero before slipage. This makes sense to me. I am confused with if certain option position can have expected return different from zero.

    I am going to assume for my example that the market's expected return is 10% and the risk free rate is 4% (the numbers don't really matter). I will also assume the synthetic short and long are picked such that there is no net credit or debit.

    A long SPY stock position's expected return should be 10%

    A long SPY stock and a SPY synthetic short should have an expected return of 4% (the risk free rate)

    And a SPY snythetic long and a synthetic short should have an expected return of 0%

    I think these three statements are obvious.

    Using math it would appear that:

    A SPY synthetic short should have an expected return of -6%

    A SPY synthetic long should have an expected return of 6%

    (I know this kind of isn't right because the net credit/debit of these positions is zero but my point is the short has a negative return and the long has a positive return)

    So does this mean options going long on a stock have a positive expexted return. If not why is my reasoning not correct.

    Thanks so much

    Options Expected Returns
    byu/Lachy-Dauth inoptions



    Posted by Lachy-Dauth

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