Nvidia and Jensen Huang have been talking about AI for almost two decades, granted it was mostly vaporware but there were many futurists and academicians who have recognized its promise as early as the 1980s/90s, if not before. NVDA the stock itself languished for many years without any major movement, it was in the low $100s as late as October 2022, it was $50 in 2020.
How many of the big name investors and fund managers with massive research budgets and resources miss out on its potential and are now chasing it all costs? How many of those funds had it as a major holding for the last 5 or 10 years?
How did the best and most intelligent investors on earth miss out on Nvidia?
byu/cbusoh66 inwallstreetbets
Posted by cbusoh66
43 Comments
How do the best roulette players in the world miss out on that 00 roll?
It’s a casino baby /s
Expectations were already priced in
The funds are in the position they’re in, and you’re in the position you’re in.
I don’t recall any “futurist” picking 2023 as the start of the AI hyper bubble, but I may have “missed” it.
It’s largely driven by OpenAI’s breakthroughs with LLMs. Now it’s been known a long time (about a decade) that GPUs are really good at training and running AI models, but nobody predicted the absolutely gigantic models that would be used for running modern LLMs, and the GPUs needed to run/train them.
Get in the Time Machine and go back 6-8 months. Everyone was calling nvda a dog with fleas. I’m going to frame a message a friend sent me saying it’s time to sell nvda.
We are at the start of a bubble. All it takes is for one kid in his basement to create a Geth or Fijukkoma A.I. using some strange liquid. And Nvida will go to $10 because everyone will know it’s over.
We are in the stage where Netflix just came out, and Blockbuster thinks physical media is still going to be king.
I didn’t.
The best investors knew about it in the ‘80s and then had to time exactly when it would go hyperbolic 40 years in the future?
The same way I missed Amazon doing 10x or more a decade ago. I don’t like overpaying and hoping that a greater fool will buy after me.
Is NVIDIA worth 2x more than Apple? It sure feel like it. Time will tell though.
Remember when Tesla was going to be $2500 to $5000? And it was bigger than all other car manufacturers, all included. Look where it’s at now.
I didn’t
i bought shares average around $170 and sold around $300 like an ignorant idiot. thought it was just a trade not a long hold. also did similar, missing the 2017 rally.
just listen to what you said. Jensen has been talking about nvda for over 20 years. So invest in nvda 20 years ago and expect AI to pop 20 years later? NVDA was known for gaming graphics cards first. then bitcoin mining. now it’s known for AI after OpenAI blew people away with ChatGPT3. Yeah, 20 years ago, a “intelligent investor” would have predicted LLMs. JFC
Big fund managers are incentivized to play safe and collect people’s money. Most do not attempt to dig into an industry and do that kind of hardwork. They all recycle the same dozen companies which they see as holding monopolies, high margin fee charging businesses. (Visa, Mastercard, S&P, Moodys, MSFT, AAPL,GOOG)
ChatGPT shocked everyone including OpenAI. Even after its release it wasn’t obvious that so many companies would want to train their own models and use gpus as opposed to other options (e.g. tpus)
Nvidia was like 60 bucks back in winter of 2016. I told all of my cousins who were in Bay Area. No one bought it because “ we know more about west coast tech companies”. They all tell me about their fuck up every time we meet. I did buy but sold at 120 lol.
Can’t predict bubble formation, can maybe predict bubble popping
I did I just sold all my shares 3X’d because I’m poor
Open AI chatgpt changed the game. It even caught Google off guard and every company is playing catch-up to have their own in-house chatgpt. No one knew shit until open AI opened up about it and it turned out Nvidia GPUs is the only reason why the models can even work in the first place.
> Jensen Huang have been talking about AI for almost two decades
> it was mostly vaporware
> How many of the big name investors miss out on its potential
I think you missed the fact that it only recently had potential
Shoulda coulda woulda
Because they’re contrarians or 🌈 🐻 s
Because they’re not gambling on speculative stock growth, they’re collecting dividends from CURRENTLY highly profitable companies.
Hindsight is always 20/20. Why didn’t everyone buy BTC for $0.0009?
You don’t think that ALOT of intelligent investors made a ton of money on nvidia stock?
Because it always looked over priced. Knowing too much can be a detriment. This is usually why economists are bad at investing as the economy looks like it’s going to collapse all the time.
Speak for yourself. You had to be deaf, dumb and blind to miss Nvidia, CMG, TSLA, MSFT, APPL, FB/META, GOOGL. I dumped TSLA but the rest you’ll have to pry from my cold dead hands.
I bought in at $65 and some change in 2018 cause some random dude at work told me to 😬
Simple answer
The valuation is based on mania and growth that has peaked.
It can not grow the way it has in the past because of capacity.
Any company no matter how amazing eventually hits a capacity in production and margin.
When you have a mass of people riding a One stock train it’s easy to miss the boat because you think it’s already full and peaked
Michael burry got it right on the crash of 2008 but got it wrong on Tesla
David einhorn got it right on kurig and wrong on his next few big ones
Cathy wood is a genius who hit amazing returns and has been dead money ever since
Nvidia will do well because of the stock split and afterwards some will sell half there position and others who never owned it will buy
This building a stable price range between 900-1100 current price
I admit I missed the boat on Nvidia because tragically I missed the psychology of the AI mania because the profit and practical applications just do not exist yet for that kind of sustainable driver
However I totally wish I wouldn’t gone into Nvidia at any time prior to earnings and it would have been a home run.
That best thing about the market is we earn or lose what we deserve in real time.
Looking for the next opportunity is what is now a brutally tough market to trade in 🚀
Missed another rise to1k Deckers Outdoor. They just sell shoes
The assumption is that a GPU is the best tool given a SDI to develop a neural network based upon a learning model similar to the human brain. I don’t have the arrogance to believe that NVDIA is the only way of achieving this. Of course I don’t have a PhD, and although my imagine may be big, my intelligence is small. IDK
Stanley Druckenmiller loaded a boatload.
The best.
Didn’t miss.
Dude, sometime in 2002 it was only .72 cents a share… back when they were basically a video game graphic accelerator company. I played a lot of video games back then so I wish I had invested then. $1000 back then would have grown to nearly $1.5 million.
I’m pretty sure Brad Gerstner’s fund is in at the $100/$125 level which is pretty impressive imo
Look at financial leadership: its full of old MBA graduates. Thu are used to benefit from insider trading or faking security baskets safety, not from actually predicting the market, let alone with something futuristic.
Tldr: fund managers are old and dumb
They’ve been talking about it for two decades?? So why didn’t u go all in on options two decades ago??
There are enough investors that made money along the way with Nvidia. Your question could be ask now for Tesla, if autonomous driving actually becomes a thing it would be groundbreaking. Or special computing. I’m sure there is also a pharma company working on a cure for cancer. Are you invested?
You’re basically asking why did people not invest in moonshots.
Didn’t they say the same about pharma rocket and Tesla rocket?
People thought graphics cards were just for video games, then they became good for crypto, but still cyclical.
Now it looks like we’ll be scaling up to a data center on every block, pumping compute until we hit some hard limits with energy and cooling and materials.
We’re already using crazy compute to generate shitty people with bad hands. Now imagine scaling Sora so everyone can generate HD video on the fly, or 3D/VR realtime.
Tell me right now which stock will have the highest gain and highest increase in P/E next week.
Apparently it’s so fucking easy to predict the future take a stab at it OP.
Who the hell are you talking about? Druckenmiller, Cohen, PTJ, etc. all caught it.
I remember back when the first Xbox was coming out and researching all the early key components that were publicly available and known at the time prior to launch. I was a kid, maybe 11-12 years old, and I told my dad he should invest in the companies that make the graphics (nvidia and Microsoft both combined in making it) and he said he would. My dad bought a decent amount of shares as a way to demonstrate to me how investing could and would work with things you’re interested and passionate about. He sold out of his positions around the holidays and probably 2x his initial investment back in 2001…to think how right I was then and how right we would be today had he simply held we’d be swimming in it…
Then there was the time I was in college around 2009 at a family thanksgiving and explaining to some uncles what a Bitcoin was and could be…they talked me out of wasting that $1000….
Honestly I think a lot of old money big institutions missed it because they’ve made a reputation off the old tried and true while many got burnt in the .com boom and anything loosely tech is just seen as that to them.