Exxon Mobil was America’s most valuable publicly traded company for much of the 2000s & early 2010s, as the oil booms during those periods delivered enormous profits. Since the mid-2010s, Apple (and eventually the rest of Big Tech) began to exceed Big Oil’s profits. For much of the past decade, Apple has been the most profitable and most valuable U.S. company, occasionally trading places with Microsoft, the 2nd most profitable U.S. company.
Which brings us to the current situation. Microsoft is worth $3.2 trillion; Apple is worth $2.9. Microsoft is actually making slightly less profit than Apple but has a shown a higher earnings growth trajectory in recent quarters/years. NVIDIA is worth $2.8 and making about a tenth of MS & Apple’s profits, but might double or triple its earnings this year. One of 3 things can happen:
- NVIDIA takes #1 and grows into its valuation
- NVIDIA takes #1 then loses it because it fails to grow into its valuation
- Wall Street pumps Apple & MS stock higher so this never becomes an issue
It should be noted the last time the most valuable company did NOT make the most profits, that was Cisco in the early 2000s … and it didn’t end well.
Since 2000, highest U.S. market cap = highest profit almost 100% of the time. As NVIDIA approaches Apple, what happens next?
byu/MarkusEF inwallstreetbets
Posted by MarkusEF
31 Comments
Depends on demand of their GPUs. They could keep pumping for the next quarter, 2 quarters, or next few years. As long as they keep hitting their projected numbers
You’re bringing sense into all this?
I said months ago NVIDIA will be pumped to 100 trillion market cap by the end of the year. They will buy the whole of Mexico to make their chips and will increase their prices 500% because AI will bring humanity into the bright future we deserve.
4. Nvidia doesn’t reach its growth targets and tanks. Believe it or not even Nvidia can go down.
Nvidia making 1/10 the profit of msft and aapl is terrible math. AAPL makes about 120B EBIT and NVDA is on pace for about 50-60B this year
Please show your work on Nvidia making 1/10th the profits. Last quarter will do
Irrational exuberance
Are à
This is the most meandering and pointless post I have ever seen
4. China lobs a few missiles at Taiwan and ww3 starts. Nvidia discovers why being fabless is a bad idea .
What’s next after it passes AAPL? MSFT is next!
Market cap is in principle always a fictitious quantity due to stocks priced at the margin:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK2cRCPWUpU&t=2203s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK2cRCPWUpU&t=2203s)
But in some cases it’s more fictitious than in other cases. Nvidia’s market cap is way more fictitious than that of Apple, because Apple’s revenues are far larger than those of Nvidia and Nvidia’s stock price has gone up very fast with many stockholders having bought at much lower prices. Most of them would have no problems selling Nvidia stock at much lower prices, say $600 if the stock were to tank, as they would then still make huge profits. But in case of Apple this is likely going to be different.
NVDA margins are 70% EBIT if they can get up to 180 billion in revenue, they will be more profitable than apple. They’re already looking at 100b+ for this fiscal year not really a far stretch to see them over taking apple.
Soon the poor will be eliminated and common prosperity reached
Thé thing is no individual consumer is buying NvDA GPUs. They rely on big tech massively
It takes over apple, someone blinks, the self perpetual loop..( NVidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Msft) stops, retails get cucked…..rinse and repeat….
that’s why it’s reasonable just to invest in the S&P because the companies that were top 5 20 years ago are not the same today
Passive index bubble blows off and breaks in 6 months
TAM and Addressable are important for the future. And Nvidia has grown into its valuation? And I don’t follow the last bit of logic.
The bigger they are. The more allocated they are in spy and qqq. The more pension and sovereign funds pump into them. Once you hit critical mass it’s easy making money
NVDA net income $15b last quarter.
AAPL net income $23.6b last quarter.
MSFT net income $22b last quarter.
Where are you getting NVDA is making one tenth AAPL/ MSFT profits? Looks more like NVDA is going to overtake them within the next year.
China’s jealousy makes them jump the gun on taking TSMC
Ai has yet to replace our jobs yet. It’s getting close but it has to be implemented first. This is still early early days of the ai revolution. Nvda is still selling shovels to people who are trying to be first on perfecting ai before it gets mass implementation
4 trillion
I don’t know if it’s quantifiable like this because the stock price could represent the future potential value of a stock.
If China sends one ship toward Taiwan and farts upwind, the market is going to knee jerk the living shit out of semis.
There’s been several indications Xi is going to make some kind of move in 2026/2027. I’m by no means a bear, but holy shit the drop down can get awfully steep from this elevation.
Apple makes wwaaayyy more profit than Nvidia. And they design their own ships, bought up all of TSM’s most refined fabrication, and plans to do their own server farms now, and their own AI on top of taking a cut of “everyone” else’s AI, and has several lines of business, and is a company that is loved by people outside the nerd sphere.
Things will balance out. Either Nvidia will go down or Apple will go up or more likely both.
# Since 2000, highest U.S. market cap = highest profit almost 100% of the time.
lets face it – all these companies are monopolies actually in their niche
monopoly = biggest markets share + biggest profit
I’ve been hearing that NVDA is the next CSCO for the last 2 years which is the exact reason I never bought it. Wish I turned all bears off
Nvidia will be the first to (publicly) create singularity and put a price tag on it. Not just Ai but Ai^ai
Nvidia’s stock price has gone up just over 50 % in about 1 month. As much as I like the company I have the opinion that it’s done moving higher for now.
I thinned my position by 20 percent at 1126 and change.
1134 is 50 percent above the April low and 1223 would be 61.8 percent above the April low.
I’ll hold the rest because this stock has done me good over the past decade
So what’s going to happen when the AI bubble pops?