$350k Bitcoin: This Equation Predicts Prices Of Future Halving Events | Joey Wagner

$350k Bitcoin: This Equation Predicts Prices Of Future Halving Events | Joey Wagner

Bitcoin failed this week as the failed monong gox exchange is stepping up efforts to return up to9 Billion Dollar of Bitcoin to its creditors what impact thises have on the Bitcoin price short term and what is the momentum of Bitcoin in the medium term we’ll discuss this with our next guest Joey Wagner producer of the Bitcoin minute a technical analyst who has a very interesting formula he’ll share with us this formula uh predicts the Bitcoin price of the next having cycle and the having cycle after that it uses a mathematical formula that has been prettyy accurate in calling the Bitcoin price of previous having cycle so stay tuned for Joey’s prediction for what’s next in the next two having cycles and Beyond this episode is brought to you by itus capito and Ira that offers 35 crypto assets and the lowest trading fees in the crypto Ira space at 1% if you’re over 18 and you like to open a new account with cash or row over an existing account click on it trust. capital davit to learn more and find out more about the unique tax benefits as well of opening up a Bitcoin IRA and if you fund your account using my referral link you’ll get $100 in signing bonuses Joey welcome to the show good to see you thank you for having me David nice to be here nice to have you first time we’ve had you on the show your father was a very popular Gary Wagner editor of the gold forecast.com fan favorite so I’m uh glad to finally uh have the chance to interview you tell us a little bit about your work and uh the type of chart reading that you do I work primarily on bitcoin and I am a technical analyst I use both eastern and western indicators my favorite for Eastern is ichim moo and Candlestick patterns for Western indicators I firmly believe in Fibonacci and that’s probably my most widely used tool I’ve been um reporting on bitcoin since 2018 so let’s talk about some recent price action so momentum is it to the downside or upside we’ve seen a bit of a pullback from its highs of $71,000 a coin just last week and it’s been sliding ever since what’s been going on and how you reading momentum well I see Bitcoin likely trading sideways to downward for the upcoming weeks and the recent pullback is largely based on what you said earlier the mount gaau repayments which wallet trackers have tracked been following the wallet associated with the trustee that is going to be repaying these Bitcoins it’s 142,000 Bitcoins and they were just moved off of a centralized exchange on Monday and that is a large reason for the pullback yeah just a paragraph off the Bloomberg News article the original cryptocurrency dropped as much as 3.1% and was trading at about $668,000 as of 88:13 a.m. Tuesday in New York the weakness spread to smaller coins including binance coin polka dot and Dogecoin second ranked ether was little change virtually all of the more than 137,000 Bitcoin worth over $9.3 billion held in montg wallets was moved starting early Asian hours on Tuesday according to data from crypto Quant and Arkham intelligence so this is a very uh Niche piece of news related to just one um event now suppose suppose this event were to sort itself out do you think Bitcoin is oversold um no I think this event could provide some bearish pressure I mean in the past when people had anticipated that the mount goau Bitcoin repayments were coming up and they just moved Bitcoin or presumed that they did it had a dramatic effect on price and it brought it down by about 3 4% in a single day last occurrence and it led to about a 10% pullback last occurrence so once this happens and the deadline for repayment is October but the fact that they just moved it off of a centralized exchange means that they’re likely getting ready to reimburse those customers suppose this piece of news were not to be in the headlines just looking at the charts just looking at it from a purely technical perspective does Bitcoin have more downside to go well from a purely technical perspective it actually is holding rather well and it it’s above the 20-day exponential moving average above the 50-day moving average however we did just have a bearish cross between the 100 and 50-day simple moving averages just yesterday so technically it looks a little bit topheavy to me so Bitcoin has broken above $70,000 couple times this year first $74,000 was a higher than last week it was $71,000 but we’re looking at around $70,000 as a ceiling why is it having a hard time breaking above that ceiling you think I think it’s um fundamentally based the original $74,000 was made on anticipation and hype about the spot Bitcoin ETFs and once they actually came into play Traders sold the news and and since then there hasn’t been any Catalyst to propel it above that okay so shortterm then where do you see Bitcoin headed shortterm I see Bitcoin headed low to sideways and I’m looking at around $52,000 for ultimate bottom that we may reach within the next couple weeks to months how did you arrive of that number um it’s a historically a very prominent resistance and support level it’s also the 61.8% retracement of our recent rally let’s talk about your work on bitcoin having Cycles now uh you have a formula that’s very interesting it actually predicts where Bitcoin should land at the start of every Bitcoin having cycle so we’ll talk about this formula and you actually kind of wrote an article a couple years ago um making the correct projection for where Bitcoin should land this cycle right so tell us about how this formula works okay I this formula works very it’s a very simple formula it’s written as bitcoin’s price at the next having event is equal to bitcoin’s price at the previous having event multiplied by the block reward and added to that 7% okay can you can you elaborate a little bit more on the logic here so how did you come up with this formula and how do we know that it works well I first came out with my first iteration of this formula the day after the third having May 2020 and it was the first having I witnessed as a true bitcoiner I hypothesized that since the supply side is purely driven by mathematics that maybe there might be a mathematical equation that could predict the price on the having dates so I just attempted to come up with that and after back testing and analyzing my results I believe I got something pretty close so what you’re saying is the price at the Bitcoin having cycle it’s not driven primarily by fundamental factors it’s the purely mathematical uh equation it’s because you’re looking at it from a purely math perspective you’re not factoring in macro variables here correct correct but should you be expanding this formula and factoring in other variables I mean why I I just don’t yeah go on okay well that’s why this formula is meant to project the price the day of the having event I believe that you couldn’t make a formula that would predict the highs or the lows or any anything like that because that is based on fundamental events but the four-year Cycles I believe are based on Purely Supply so what was the prediction that you made in 20 uh well for this uh having cycle in 2024 the my formula works out to 58,000 $990 and it was within $1,000 of the Below on the day of the having so we’re at 2024 in 2028 you’re projecting what around $210,000 for the day of the having on 2028 okay so is there a theoretical maximum is it just going to keep going up forever at every single having cycle well no because one of the variables in the formula is the block reward and if you look you’ll notice that after 2032 the block rewards become less than one so theoretically the formula would say that it would decline at every having event after that date so what is the um what is the highest number uh at sorry what is the highest bitcoin price at the highest Bitcoin having cycle the highest price at the having cycle would be 2032 and that comes in at around $350,000 if you look at the chart I gave you and you connect the dots you’ll notice that the line it makes actually represents closer to to the bottom of the price than the top so it’s 350,000 is what I’m predicting for having 2032 but it could go much higher in that cycle and what’s interesting is I’m looking at the chart and it looks like in past having events the minimum and the maximum during that cycle kind of oscillates around the having price if you graph out the hi price in a logarithmic curve which you have on this chart and so you can kind of the argument that this orange line which is the you know the the curve projecting out different having uh Cycles going forward that’s kind of the average for every cycle right could you could you kind of make that argument yeah you could and um that’s why I think that mathematically it could work so then in theory we’re talking about a theoretical average maximum for Bitcoin of around $350,000 sometime in the next 10 years theoretically we’re talking about $350,000 on the having date 2032 yes right but it could it could go much higher but it could go it could go it could Peak much higher it could also go much lower but again looking at this chart it looks like it’s kind of an average price um yeah could you could you like just thinking longterm because I know Bitcoin is going to continue getting mined into 2140 um we’re both not going to be here by then but Joey uh by by then would you you see Bitcoin just reaching um just continuously going up uh because of mathematics or does it does theoretically have to make sense that it needs to kind of top out at some point yeah exactly it my formula and my theory is that it will Top out and Bitcoin is such a revolutionary technology but by 2140 as we both can probably assume there is going to be another disruptive technology even more advanced than Bitcoin so that’s that’s my um explanation of that okay closing off I want to talk about uh Bitcoin ETF news so this just came in from yesterday why black Rock’s Bitcoin ETFs are passing grayscales gbtc is bullish so I’ll just read a few paragraphs here four months after the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds black rocks ice shares Bitcoin trust or ibid has surpassed the grayscale Bitcoin trust or gbtc in size it’s official now now IET is King of the category and will probably be for decades Bloomberg intelligence ETF analyst Eric balunis posted on Wednesday how significant is this for you at least well um this is significant this was destined to happen at some point because grayscale just kept bleeding out it and outflowing while black Rock’s eye bit kept growing and it was pretty much um a self-fulfilling prophecy I believe with uh Black Rock own the majority or the largest share of the 850,000 Bitcoin currently held in the spot ETFs Joey great uh talking to you today where can we learn more about your work you could see my work at the Gold forecast.com crypto where I have a newsletter it’s free to sign up come check me out all right we’ll put the link down below thanks very much Joey speaking against soon yep see you David thank you for watching don’t forget to like And subscribe

Joey Wagner, Producer of The Bitcoin Minute, discusses his equation that predicts where the Bitcoin price will be in subsequent halving events.

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*This video was recorded on May 29, 2024

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0:00 – Intro
2:00 – Bitcoin price momentum
2:55 – Mt. Gox
4:15 – Bitcoin short-term technicals
6:10 – Bitcoin halving price projections
11:38 – Bitcoin ETFs

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