Bitcoin BLOW OFF TOP In Doubt – This Indicator Tells a DIFFERENT Story

Bitcoin BLOW OFF TOP In Doubt – This Indicator Tells a DIFFERENT Story

I’ve been told there is a consensus that Bitcoin is going to experience a blowoff top similar to what occurred in 2013 or 2017 and you could nearly stretch it as far as 2021 where it ran very fast from 11k up to $65,000 now while the markets can’t guarantee a blowoff top what we can do is look to particular signals which may suggest that we are leaning towards a blowoff top or at the very least Le a significant move to the upside Smash Up the like button hit the Subscribe button if you’re new here it is your home of macro cycle analysis you’re joining myself Jason Pino as we cover Bitcoin cryptos the stock markets and of course the real estate cycle the real estate cycle is the key pillar to everything that surrounds our economic Cycles our business cycles and the financial markets that we trade we’re going to get into the Bitcoin blowoff top but first I want to cover the traditional markets to give us an overview of the markets if you will so let’s start now with a couple of key lessons from the NASDAQ pretty interesting data here that we can go through to help us with our Bitcoin and crypto trading now if we just look take a quick look at the data before we get into the lessons themselves so that we can hopefully make the most from this cycle the uh data here is looking at the NASDAQ 100 versus the NASDAQ 100 equally weighted so essentially if you were to buy into each of these tickers each of these ETFs which one is going to perform better over the long term very simply if you look at the NASDAQ 100 you can see the black line here it’s performed much better than an equally weighted NASDAQ now why is that important to us in uh Bitcoin in cryptocurrencies now the first lesson with this is that each of the ETFs is going to be waiting the stocks that are in that ETF differently for example QQQ is going to put more weight on the top 1 2 3 4 five market caps and lower waiting on the bottom market caps with the equal waiting it’s going to give it equal waiting across the board now the top market caps are going to continue to get more and more waiting as they grow for example Nvidia has obviously gone from out of the top 10 to nearly number one it’s at number two market cap now in terms of the size and so you’re going to be getting more and more of those returns and that’s obviously a fantastic sign if you are invested in the NASDAQ 100 because of course Nvidia has gone absolutely bananas so you’re getting a bigger and bigger return on your uh on your money here looking at this ETF now if you’re looking at the equally weighted you’re not going to be getting those same returns that Nvidia is experiencing because well you’re not as heavily invested in Nvidia with the equal waiting you’re going to have everything equally weighted in the top 100 and so what uh what what the problem is here is that you are now holding some of the laggards and you’re not holding as much of the winners so the leaders and that happens all the time with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies many want to get into the laggards as you can see with my list down here my 2017 garbage and dead charts don’t worry about the projects or’ll get too attached to them you’re not married to them you don’t owe them anything but what happens is people get very very attached to these cryptos and because they are down a lot they think they’re going to pump and that is possible but from what I’ve experienced and the books and the lessons from many that have come before me for over a hundred years have suggested that you’re better off being in the winners so it’s not my opinion it comes from their research and I continue to Implement that in my own trading and investing so I want to be holding the winners I want to be holding the stuff that is running up and moving with the market and potentially outpacing the market obviously Nvidia is one of those it’s definitely outpaced the market so that’s just a simple lesson on holding leaders or winners or strong stocks or cryptos as opposed to the lagot now of course some of them are going to pop off and to me that comes down to human psychology a lot of people love the gambling mindset they want to find something that’s well and truly down and they think they’re going to win big and they’re going to become rich from one trade it’s kind of like trying to win the lottery and so that’s innate in human psychology they think they’re going to win the lottery from one trade or two trades that is going to make them a killing in money and we know deep down that this isn’t going to be the case but because it’s human psychology we continue to do it whether it’s within stocks or penny stocks whether it’s in cryptocurrencies and tiny coins out there or whether it’s with buying a weekly lottery ticket or anything else like that so it’s going to continue to happen time and time again I hope for you guys here that are watching the video and watching the lessons over and over again that it starts to sink in to realize that we’re better off taking a a more how dare I say it guaranteed approach as opposed to trying to gamble on something that is down and continues to be down in the face of strength like we see with Bitcoin and other strong cryptocurrencies so with that in mind and that lesson let’s move on to the stock markets and where they currently sit uh before I get into Bitcoin in this blowoff top so that lesson to me is really really important as we lead into this final leg of the cycle and it could last a lot longer than we anticipate now what I’ve done here is just lay out the theory in case you were new to the channel the theories that I’ve held throughout this move to the upside is that we are within a macro bull market now I did debate a lot of people on X throughout this period here in early 2023 all of the big names just thinking that the market was going to collapse from this point and it didn’t so if you haven’t got that history from the channel you know there’s my 5 seconds for you but essentially this is a macro bull market and what we’re currently in now in say the medium term weeks to months is I think we’re in a seasonal trading range and the moment that’s kind of what’s been happening right from from back in March now we’ve got a rough Trading Zone of about 5,000 up to 5,400 on the S&P 500 we drop it down to the Daily we’re pretty well in a safe level here for now we can put it up to the 50% low to high and just over the last day or so the market has dropped back down so we got about a 1% loss yesterday but I’m still happy with anything above 51 which is the 50% level so 5166 and then even if things started to deteriorate pretty heavily we’re still pretty well safe we’re looking for any sort of invalidations of this of this move and that level back here is about 5,000 points so we’ll have to reassess our thoughts if this Market is to break down from there but for now there’s a Long Way to the downside for the S&P 500 same sort of deal here for the NASDAQ except it’s holding up a little stronger probably off the back of Invidia which I’ll get to in just a moment but uh yeah just looking at the chart again you’ve got the 50% level on the short term here so on The Daily coming in at 18,000 points and anywhere back down to about 17,300 is still within a safe zone for this particular correction now if it started to break down from these lows here at 169 or 171 we’d have to reassess and essentially see how long this continued trading range would continue to hold out so for now things are still on track yesterday again 1% drop and it’s still above the previous old all-time high speaking of high and this blowoff top now this is a good quote here tops are in when people stop believing in a bare Market this is from Elliot love him or hate him this is a pretty decent quote it happens at lows the lows are in when everyone stops believing in the asset itself and that happened for Bitcoin you know in October November of 2022 everyone thought it was over and that was the end when FTX collapsed and of course that was the bottom so we haven’t seen this yet and I would say that this is very similar to March we saw the amount of hype no one believed that there was a possibility of a bare Market that could occur or even at the slightest uh a correction but meanwhile this is what we were looking at for a 3-day down signal so here it is just again for you guys that was at the top here red red red that was our signal to suggest that maybe Bitcoin isn’t going to be going up anytime soon and we’re going to uh experience a prolonged period underneath the all-time high You’ probably heard me say that many times before now so the 3-day down signal there was a median time frame in months of roughly 4 to six months underneath the all-time high so if I pop this on here and come across to where we are now we’re at 77 days so by 90th day so June give it two more weeks we’re going to be at 3 months 4 months is going to take us out to middle of July so again that’s probably about 40 days away do I think it’s going to get there I don’t know I’m just looking at the median time frames in the past we’ve seen after this significant signal from tops that it takes quite some time for the market to recover from here now in yesterday’s video uh this one right here I also looked at the three weeks up so let’s throw it onto a weekly chart and we can see these three green arrows there’s a good reminder there hit that like button let’s go for 3 and half th000 likes now in terms are these three green arrows to the upside higher highs higher lows what we had seen in the past this is a chart here that you that the market itself once it sees the signal typically goes on a pretty significant run to the upside and it’s even better when it comes from early on in the cycle you can see here we got the three green arrows and this was the last move to the upside so basically like an entry from that point the percentages aren’t necessarily there but at least it’s still positive to the upside you get a swing bottom another push and then basically a breakdown so we may be at the start of a new one we don’t know yet because we don’t have confirmation of the market breaking out to the upside but if we layer this on top then maybe we still have a little more time here for the market to consolidate before going on another move so what could this move entail and this brings us to our blowoff top so let’s have a look at the the previous history here put on a log chart and take off some of the lines so get a little bit cleaner uh actually I’m going to have to keep these on because we need to see these numbers down the bottom essentially we’re looking at this blowoff top so this move from January into December uh 2017 and we can also have a take a look at this blowoff top here this was a 2013 move October into uh basically late November early December but we’re looking here at the average true range and so a blowoff top at least in my opinion is going to subjective to what you think a blowoff top is now I say that because this was obviously a blowoff top this one here obviously a blowoff top this one in 2021 well you could say that that was a blowoff top because the next move went slightly higher that wasn’t necessarily a blowoff top but we did have a pretty big blowoff move that um went 6X in price basically $101,000 up to about $65,000 so that’s a pretty significant move and the average true range from that point of breaking out of the all-time high was sitting at around 17 or $1,800 so that’s the range of the bar itself the market was experiencing approximately 16 17,800 bars and then it very quickly went up to 75 to $8,000 bars so quick math you’re probably looking at a five or six times the a the average range of the bar I think that confirms a blowoff top move you’ve gone from a relatively subdued Market to a very very hot Market in a very short amount of time and so that’s why a blowoff top is going to be subjective who determines what a blowoff top is does the average true range have to meet a certain criteria do does it just have to look like a blowoff top in the chart it’s all subjective so when someone talks about a blowoff top I think you’re going to have to deter that for yourself and what that actually means I’m looking at it here once the market broke out uh we just said you know 17 1800 bucks but you could almost go for a round number here of about 2,000 and then it quickly went up to about $88,000 by the time it got to this breakdown here so that was a 4X in the range of the bar we go back to the previous cycle you can see where the market started to break out the range was about 100 bucks quickly ran up150 quickly ran up to about $600 so there’s your first Forex to this top here so that gives you a 4X and then from that 600 bucks to the next top which is about two and a you know 2,400 2008 it’s at least another 4X to that top so it Forex and then Forex again we didn’t get that in 2021 does that say that it’s not a blowoff top I mean that move is pretty damn significant and how how big those bars moved at that point and then if you go back to the 2013 move well you’ve got 35 bucks and it ran up to $170 so again another over four or 5x move there in terms of the average range of the bar once it gets to that previous old all-time high bitcoin’s gone from about $2,000 at these lows in October to now this current all-time high of U $6,000 so 2,000 to 6,000 really only three times its value so far but what if we do get this blowoff top do we need a see a 4X in these uh in these size of the bars 6 * 4 $24,000 bars what the hell would a $24,000 bar look like as it started to get to the Peaks so you’d have to be around these tops 100 to 120 that would be typical bars if you got one of those bars now from 70 that’s going to drop you in a week down to 50 and we haven’t seen anything like that yet so it’s not impossible but that’s what I’m looking at when it comes to some sort of blowoff top now I don’t know if that’s going to occur I’m definitely not betting on that it must occur I’m very much happy to see the market slowly grind up and then get faster and faster into that Peak that’s absolutely fine as well um but to make money I don’t need to see a blowoff top I think it’s just something that can be talked about and is great for titles and great for theories that influencers put together to then sell it to the public to explain that the markets are going to be absolutely bananas and you should be listening to me etc etc now I think there is going to be some sort of blowoff top with real estate so by all means listen to me when it comes to the real estate cycle at the end of the day you do you the cycle is there if you want to understand how it works continue to tune into to the channel otherwise go out and look at the markets for yourself see what’s going on in your particular area or your country and uh continue to assess the data that comes through as we lead into these next couple of years in the cycle at the end of the day you’re free to do whatever the hell you want to do but of course I think there is going to be some sort of significant move when it comes to the real estate cycle in these next couple of years now a final thought on the average two range before we have a look at a few other charts here the average two range for Bitcoin is at 6K Bitcoin has done almost $112,000 weeks already see the week here in April 72700 down to 61,500 give or take you know it’s about $15,000 into that low in May it did under 10 grand but it has done at least one of those already so it might not be too out of the question to get a doubling from this point for it to get to that $122,000 average range for the week but for it to get to that point you’re probably going to have to see bigger ranges than $112,000 so I don’t think an average range of 12K is out of the question maybe we do get to sort of 15 to $20,000 bars and for that to occur I think we’re going to have to be significantly higher than where we are right now now now does that constitute a blowoff top in your books let me know in the comments section down below do you think we’re going to get a blowoff top for Bitcoin at the end of this cycle now as much as I love speculating on the charts I do want to stick with the objective data the stuff that has actually got some backing to it but it’s always interesting to have a look at what might occur and to be prepared for several situations but of course the end of the day we follow the r rules cu the rules are what keep us safe in the market obviously the swing chart our 50% levels and of course other things like our yof patterns and other Gan style analysis let’s continue to follow up with several other charts here uh update them as we have done over the course of several months now this one here has been pretty interesting one to follow the total crypto the total market cap usdt dominance so essentially usdt dominance and when it gets when it has got to this uh diagonal you’ve typically seen a pretty significant top for Bitcoin and when it gets to some of these Peaks not that there’s been a significant line there but when it gets to some of these Peaks there’ have been significant turning points at lows for Bitcoin and in some cases cryptocurrencies while it’s above the 50% here or usdt dominance is up I should say when it’s going up Bitcoin and altcoins are going down so when this is going up Bitcoin and altcoins are going down when the dominance is going down Bitcoin and alts are going up that’s pretty simple cuz typically you’d see some of the money coming out of the stable coin going into Bitcoin and alts and what we have seen over the last few weeks is a low right there for Bitcoin and then for alts it was this week here so the week before uh occurred that’s when that little top there occurred so from there the dominance has fallen not by much but it has still fallen and we’ve seen altcoins move to the upside or at least the strong ones not the weak ones and if you’re interested in a understanding the weaks versus the strongs I did a major post uh yesterday on X I’ll leave a link to this in the video description and you can go on follow and um follow me over there on X so that you can see this particular update and have a look at all the charts that I’ve gone through when it comes to weak versus strong altcoins so in terms of this chart now it’s going to be a very interesting one whether this line breaks down where the USD dominance ever breaks from this particular diagonal CU so far it has called each of the alltime highs here’s the the 2017 alltime High you’ve got the next alltime high there’s uh April and then you’ve got the November all-time high and you even had the June runup for BTC so this was this big blowoff move here in 2019 that got to $14,000 uh and then another Peak here before the covid crash so it’s been it’s been a pretty significant line I don’t know how this is all going to change in the future and I say interesting because I honestly do not know the answer to this eventually I think this diagonal would have to break down and more money to flow into uh Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for that next cycle but when that occurs is anyone’s guess so far this has worked out every single time there’s no guarantees in trading or investing but I do like the look of this in the future to see how it reacts maybe you see an under test an Underside test which then leads to a a more sign can drop and you see more money flow out into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies speaking of cryptocurrencies the update here for the total cryptocurrency market cap is anything above 2.38 trillion still relatively strong and if this is to break down that’s the shorter term Outlook there on the weekly you can look further down to 2.09 for the 50% level and that low there is at 2.04 so as it stands as a a recap this is the strong half in the shorter term and the longer term still above the major 50% so it’s again in the stronger half and if all of that was to break down we still got some support back here at 1.85 trillion which is also above the ETF top so the Bitcoin ETF top so plenty of support to the underside should any of this break down and just take more time to consolidate before the next move to the upside now I’m starting to lose my voice so I’ll wrap it up there go and check out this link in the video description for the laggards vers the leaders in the top 10 cryptocurrencies and don’t get too excited this one is not number three it’s number three on the analysis and you can see that they’re all in order here thanks again guys like And subscribe if you’re new new to the channel and again links in the video description see you the next one till then take care and peace out

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Twitter/X Tweet – Altcoin Leaders vs Laggards
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Description:
A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold. The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.
*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

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➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews