Crypto Metrics: Is the Bull Market Over? Memecoins, GameStop, AI Altcoins, Ethereum Whales Buying!

Crypto Metrics: Is the Bull Market Over? Memecoins, GameStop, AI Altcoins, Ethereum Whales Buying!

exactly yeah and you know we usually see these more speculative assets really start to pump and get attention when the crowd is uh in a relatively good mood and we can’t forget the fact that we’ve been in basically an eight-month bull cycle yes technically the all-time high for Bitcoin was three months ago but we’re also only like two to 3% below that all-time high right now even though it’s been kind of a roller coaster and people have been stressed and anxious the the real it is we’re right there at the cusp of breaking that new alltime high and that allows you know profit redistribution to keep flowing into these other speculative [Music] assets welcome to the thinking crypto podcast uh we’re going to talk about some crypto metrics today with Brian from santiment Brian great to have you on great to be here Tony fun time in crypto right now yeah Brian uh it’s wild man there’s so much going on with meme coins meme stocks uh Bitcoin ETF flows ethereum spot ETFs getting approved so we want to look at the data um you know aside from all the emotions and all the euphoric uh sentiment and so forth but let’s look at the data um maybe we can start off with meme coins because we’ve been seeing celebrity meme coins uh we got the GameStop situation going on which is kind of feeding over into memes right it’s both the kind of the same energy right retail piling in getting excited and so forth exactly yeah you kind of give or take when it comes to meme coins it you know throughout 2024 especially it’s been a lot more uh partying than sorrow for the meme coin Traders out there but uh as of late we’ve seen a bit of a shift with that even though there’s plenty of talk about it it’s a little more for negative reasons right now depending on which memec coin you’re talking about GameStop of of course more than doubled uh back in May and then kind of had a second wave earlier this week we’re talking about the stock of course not the token but both are kind of relevant they they trade with each other um and now I think people are a little bit concerned uh there’s some fud being spread about GameStop due to uh the stock going down more than 20% at the time of this recording the the trading day is not over so who knows um and of of course the the token itself is is seeing a few bumps at the moment so let me share my screen and we can look at a few things here perfect so this is the overall amount of social mentions toward gme uh we can actually you know what make it gme or GameStop so you can use words like or or and if you want to combine different words together uh for you Excel Wizards or uh python Wizards out there you’re totally familiar with that kind of stuff but uh what this does is just combine the two any mentions of GameStop or the abbreviation gme they’re all being calculated in here among all platforms you can even break it down by telegram mentions Reddit mentions Twitter SLX orchan and Bitcoin talk you can see most of it which you would expect is on Reddit because that’s kind of where the whole GameStop craze started back in 2021 so when you combine all five of those platforms together you get a pretty clear picture that we’re on a big spike once again in terms of discussion rate of GameStop we had that first big run when um roaring Kitty came came back after his three month or three-year hibernation uh and of course GameStop uh went on a huge run in fact let me turn on I can change the price to show GameStops price like so so you can see pretty clearly how the social dominance that’s what the red is this is the percentage of discussions related to GameStop versus all of the discussions in crypto it it just exploded with discussion right here in miday I’m not sure by the way what happened on April 1st maybe it was a April Fool’s joke but many of you may know better than me uh wouldn’t be surprising considering it’s the meme crowd but regardless when you see these spikes the reason this is this is relevant not just interesting is because you see fomo come in when price goes up so you see this pump then you see the social dominance go nuts toward GameStop and then if you wait a few hours usually there’s some time to react to the foming going on you suddenly see the top form and a huge crash come and it’s you know with many assets it’s not quite this extreme but when you’re talking about a purely speculative type of project like GameStop uh it’s it’s going to see a lot of volatility and that’s that’s essentially what happened here huge retrace people stop talking about GameStop for a few weeks and then oh what do you know June kicks off with another big pump and the fomo comes right back right after it does prices pull back people start to you know dismiss Game Stop once again down here and then that dismissal forms the bottom and then we get another huge surge fomo comes in and another retrace it’s incredibly predictable when you follow this kind of chart and uh you know it’s not a perfect science but it’s it’s a pretty helpful Aid when it comes to finding those tops and bottoms oh yeah and this is why I love this data from santiment because uh versus you know me picking arbitrary signals on social media whatever you know and and my limited sample size I can use Big Data like this and from multiple platforms to get an idea what’s happening if I was you know looking to trade this or uh see what impact it may have on the larger stock market or even crypto exactly yeah and you know I think most people in crypto who’ve been around long enough have realized to a certain extent all of these coins are going up and down based on speculation some might even argue it’s almost all speculation uh at santiment we basically you know say that that’s half the equation and then the other equation is Wales you know how much are they accumulating at any time so it’s not just you know how much does the crowd believe or not believe in GameStop it’s for those people holding just a ton of gme coins are they pushing up the price you know is roaring Kitty himself one of those whales and is he you know secretly accumulating publicly accumulating is he really just Diamond fisting like everyone thinks he is if we knew his address it would be easy but regardless we can see what whales are doing and that can give a nice picture on top of all the fomo and fud that’s going on now we’re also seeing this type of activity um with celebrity meme coins and um certain meme coins in general um I don’t know if you saw like Iggy aelia you have the Bowden and the TR meme coins yeah and I feel like these are going to go even more crazy as we get closer to the elections definitely I don’t know if I remember the the ticker for the Iggy iselia one but if you find it or know it let me know and I’ll add it to mother mother mother yes of course it is what a time we live in man I know so this is this is a combined look at all three of those kind of hot meme coins right now trp actually got most of its attention back in miday Bowden has kind of actually tailed off even though you know we might have seen some stuff uh recently it might have been due to a little bit of a price pump it isn’t really being talked about any more frequently than it has over the past three months in fact I’d argue it’s it’s actually declining in discussion uh meanwhile mother definitely is a good candidate right now I’m not going to say in terms of a price pump coming up that’s up to you but in terms of proud attention uh it’s certainly gaining a lot of steam right now at this time of this recording so uh that could be worth looking into if you’re just a fan of volatility this is certainly going to be a social volume an indicator that would indicate you’re going to see more wild swings for mother uh in particular yeah IG years early has been pump well I shouldn’t say pump but has been uh posting a lot of uh content and salacious content on on Twitter so it’s been getting a lot of traction and then I think the spike for Trump was when he came out and supported crypto um and made some very bullish statements about it and Biden hasn’t really been saying or doing much so his meme coin has been going down it’s so funny man um while it’s a joke it it’s reflective of some of the things that are happening in real life exactly yeah and you know we usually see these more speculative assets really start to pump and get attention when the crowd is uh in a relatively good mood and we can’t forget the fact that we’ve been in basically an eight-month bull cycle yes technically the all-time high for Bitcoin was three months ago but we’re also only like two to three% below that all-time high right now yeah even though it’s been kind of a roller coaster and people have been stressed and anxious the the reality is we’re right there at the cusp of breaking that new all-time high and that allows you know profit redistribution to keep flowing into these other speculative assets now let’s take a look at the meme coins at large um I know you guys have a great social graph showing um overall meme coins and what’s been happening U maybe you can share some takeaways from this totally yeah so this is our our list of the top 50 me coins by market cap you’ve got Dogecoin here which has been dead even over the past week Sheba let’s even expand it to the past 30 days have a little more fun with this so a lot of the big Pumpers uh include Maga here so this is Trump just as you mentioned up 178% Pepe can’t ignore the fact it’s up 70% floky right there plus 73 and then you’ve got MOG coin which has almost 3x over the past month and then Turbo’s been by far by far the best uh performing meme coin I remember just looking last month and it was down here toward the very bottom of this top 50 and look at this it’s now at what is this 5 six S8 it’s the 10th largest meme coin by market cap all of a sudden so that’s what you know a a 9x or 8X pump can do for your asset wow so confirm the top is the social volume changes and what we were just looking at is price changes right exactly so this little bar chart is just the overall price changes almost everything’s in green but you see a few like pork is actually falling off a cliff viru chain a few of them out there but most are up significantly um and then we’ve got the social volume and especially for a sector like mem coins which is so speculative these matter a lot you know Dogecoin not being talked about well Pepe is being talked about more than twice as often as it was compared to last month that means you’re going to be seeing a lot higher chance of Pepe either continuing to pump or continuing to fall off a cliff if you wanted to look more specifically you know open up pep Bay on the social trends page like I just did for the you know mother and TR and Bowden and you’ll see like hour by hour spikes that can really Lead You U so Pepe of course tons of discussion turbo 169% more than last month I would I’m actually shocked it’s not like 500% higher considering how much it’s get the idea these ones in green here are the ones that are really going to give you a a cheat sheet as to the ones where the crowd is looking to next um it’s incredible what’s happening so let’s talk about Bitcoin because we are starting to see that ETF inflows are on the rise again you know Black Rock uh Fidelity and so forth and it seems like Bitcoin is trying to move upwards to you know hit a new alltime high it’s it’s pulling back a bit right now but look that’s that’s in the The Daily which you know that that can swing any way on a daily but what are you seeing from a macro standpoint with the data that that you guys have yeah just go over a few of our best metrics for Bitcoin because whether you’re into memes or AI or whatever sector you’re trading in you should still be caring about the health of Bitcoin because if it collapses at some point especially near this all-time high your your coins are going to go down um and vice versa it breaks this new all-time high and is Off to the Races toward 80k uh that’s where you’re your other altcoins are going to be very relevant so looking at bitcoin’s Key whales uh it it’s funny we we usually use this chart because the 10 to 10,000 BTC wallets which hold about two-thirds of the supply they’re a really relevant uh tier that really kind of shows which direction Bitcoin might be going next price follows what these holders do quite accurately however we had the trustee of the mount gaau uh situation cons consid solidate a ton of wallets back a couple weeks ago and that really skewed this tier it kind of gives a false representation of how much they’re holding so what I’m looking at now is this line just any wallet that’s 10 or above that includes the wallets that they Consolidated into from Mount goau and generally as You’ expect when wall it’s holding 10 or more Bitcoin or right now about $700,000 or more when they’re going up so does the price when they’re going down price tends to get a little more choppy and unpredictable and worrisome so since uh right around the end of 2023 it’s been a big party of going up and up and up and These Bars here represent the daily price closes and obviously they they benefited from that right around here on May 27th or so it kind of started to change direction and it’s been sliding down just slightly not to a significant significant degree but enough where there’s a little bit of pause for worry right now um we can zoom this out to like the last four years and you can see the last time we really saw a drop from this bright green line was starting in February of 2022 and going all the way to right around the end of the year and as you remember 2022 is not a fun year for crypto interest rates go nuts um and lots of reasons after that 2021 alltime High to be a little bit worried about a retrace so the Wales just said I’m I’m good I’m G to start taking a lot of profit here and during that time Bitcoin really plummeted as well so after that you know we had of course the FTX crash near the end as well and that caused chaos but they started to accumulate again right at the begin of beginning of 2023 and during that since that accumulation time prices Forex for Bitcoin which is massive uh and it just been more and more and more accumulation right up until about two weeks ago so I’m not going to say we’re about to just start to see them dump but there are some caution signs showing that they’re they’re not accumulating in the aggressive fashion they have for the past year and a half gotcha could be like uh they’re waiting to see what the market does if it’s going to correct further down um before maybe taking additional positions um exactly sometimes they just wait for those big swings and then they react some people think them the whales are the only ones who cause big swings sometimes it’s the crowd themselves that kind of start a domino effect and then the whales decide whether to stop that domino effect or you know continue that pattern interesting the other thing I wanted to show here was the uh mvrv so this is just the overall average of returns based on any address that’s been active in the past 30 days here in orange or 365 days here in teal generally prices are most likely to go up when both of these lines are below zero and right now uh they’re both a bit above zero the 30day is just a tad Above So traders in the past 30 days are up 1% on average traders in the past 365 days are still up about 30% that long-term trend has been kind of the long-term worry for us ever since the alltime High when they were up like almost 70% on average um you won’t necessarily see these lines always fall back below and that’s the clear signal to buy think of it kind of like as a risk probability the higher above zero these two lines are the more concern and caution you should have typically based just solely on the math um and right now it’s kind of like at a you know if if one is is bearish and 10 is super bullish it’s showing at like a three and a half right now so it’s not the best picture I wish I could give you better news but this is just based on mvrv of course and this is a zero sum game at the end of the day even though we sometimes forget that so average Trader returns are still high and historically we need to see a little bit of a coold down period or at least see prices kind of flatten out for a little longer before you see resuming of you know the party yeah that definitely makes sense and uh given what took place up to the having with these ETF bulying and Bitcoin way ahead of schedule you know no one was expecting 74,000 hitting an all-time high before the having which never happened in the history I think a pretty extended cool down period is probably needed and like you’re saying the data is kind of showing that kind of telling that story yeah exactly and sometimes there might be like a quick jump over the all-time high and then the cool down starts you know there’s no guarantee we don’t we don’t hit that Milestone first so be prepared for anything yeah yeah for sure now let’s talk about ethereum because uh we got the approval of or the partial approval of the ethereum spot ETFs I’m curious what the whales are doing what what uh signals are you seeing there yeah definitely so this is a a perfect time to show one of our brand new metrics we we now can see how many coins the whales are holding both overall and on non- exchanges so this is showing that especially since mid-march after prices began to retrace they the non-exchange holders have just erupted with accumulation and yeah the overall amount reflects that too in yellow so again so much depends on bitcoin’s health and its ability to stay afloat but ethereum in particular looks really good right now according to these new metrics we have um they’re not dumping at all they’re they’re really just sitting and waiting and uh the price by the way this is showing the price versus Bitcoin so this is actually the ratio versus Bitcoin and I like to look at that more than just the overall price if you’re in an altcoin pay attention to how it’s going versus Bitcoin instead of just the overall price because that’s where you get a really good correlation with what the whales are doing um and you can see what they what happened last time they had this big aggressive accumulation here in you know 2021 when we hit that first all-time high and it got above like 67k or something so you can see too like just about a week or two before that true top for ethereum that’s when they started taking profit and moving down so this is a a pretty cool reflection of of how powerful the whales can be wow um and I’m curious because what we’ve seen is that when Bitcoin is cooling down sometimes um after a pump its dominance starts to go down and then some alt will start to move up as though the liquidity is Flowing to other assets from other assets so could it be flowing to eth now um given that bitcoin’s in a cooldown phase yeah that’s that’s a really fair uh way to look at it because there’s profit redistribution out of ethereum just like there is for Bitcoin and when one or the other pump uh you know the the associated assets to them are usually the biggest beneficiaries so like any asset that’s on the erc20 blockchain they’re going to benefit from ethereum doing well and obviously the ETF news coming out about a month ago um it wasn’t just ethereum that pumped it was initially e and then like the following week all of like the erc20 meme coins did well AI coins that you know render stuff like that they did really well um so I I think there could definitely be a path uh for a lot of erc20 altcoins to to thrive assuming the ethereum whales continue to show the pattern that they do and obviously Bitcoin stays propped up so speaking of AI tokens uh can we take a look at that and what’s been happening on that side of things I know like you were mentioning render fet and so forth have been going crazy C for the most part for this year right just ripping um so I’m curious how they they’re uh where they’re at right now definitely so this is just the last week of price returns some of the highlights for AI and Big Data tokens are rose rss3 seir which by the way is a very high developed coin for those who value that uh graph link nunet most of these I’ve I’ve barely covered because they’re so far down the line but maybe you’ve heard of them clintex dxchain Dairy protocol um in terms of render being the second largest over the past or in Ai and big data in general they’re only up about 1% over the past week um and bit tensor’s done a little bit better what was the other one you mentioned oh uh fetch F fetch that’s right so they’re the sixth largest and they’ve actually been slumping a bit down eight and a half percent I’m curious if I open up their um their whales and we take a quick look at why F might be struggling right now let’s go ahead do this g go to Fe on our charts page type in whale in Search and I’ll do whales not on exchanges and whales overall so interestingly let’s back it up to like the past year there was some something massive happened here in early May that caused whales to hold way way more they went from literally like a billion in fet to 2.14 billion almost overnight uh since that time it did drop down a little bit but this shows that fetch should be doing just fine eventually even though it’s been on a uh a bit of a plummet I I like the way that the whales look here in terms of accumulating even though it’s all at once in one big block I don’t know if that’s related to Founders addresses or exchanges or something but the red is non exchanges so I would assume that uh there are some very very Deep Pockets that believe in fetch right now and that would be a good sign to me this sorry sorry to interrupt you there Brian so just confirmed the red and the yellow so the red is exchanges and the and the yellow is whales red is non- exchanges and then yellow is just overall yeah ah okay so wow so that’s an accumulation signal it looks like it yeah I mean according to this they they more than doubled their Holdings sometime between May 2nd and third here wow yeah um there is something coming up where three tokens are going to be merg um if I’m remembering correctly fat Singularity net um and I forgot the other one was it ocean ocean yes they’re G to be merged together so I wonder if some you know something’s happening there and and I’m assuming a great Point all that liquidity is going to be merged together um we’ll see what happens with the price and and all that yeah look I mean that makes perfect sense actually there’s there’s definitely a bunch of dumping of ocean maybe due to the merge so there there might be something a little deceptive with this particular metric but either way it’s still fascinating to see just these wild shifts and holdings between coins well uh could you pull up Singularity net yeah yeah let’s see that’s the one that yeah and uh let’s see what’s same thing same thing so I presume maybe there’s something going on where Singularity and ocean are kind of merging into fetch yeah yeah the lar yeah and they’re gonna relaunch as I forget I think it’s called the uh I forgot the name of it it’s some artificial intelligence something something Alliance or something like that yeah I don’t remember either but you’re on the right track for sure um fascinating stuff man um Brian anything else you want to highlight before we wrap it up I don’t think so I think we covered uh covered some good stuff here I mean overall the sentiment is kind of mixed I see days where people are super euphoric and and calling for an all-time high and other days where everyone’s talking about taking profit and stuff so uh you know pay a lot of attention to that you could even go to social trends and do a simple comparison of like just buy versus sell and you can kind of get an idea of how much people are calling for one way or another at any given time wow like in the last week um yeah there’s actually a ton of buy calls right now and I think it’s due to the fact that we’ve we’ve just plummeted in the last few hours so people are trying to buy the dip and ironically when a lot of people are calling to buy the dip it’s a sign that this isn’t quite the dip to buy yet you want to wait until the PE people are afraid to buy the dip and that’s that’s the time right yeah that that abely makes sense so I’m wondering if something is around the corner some big correction which we may start we’re starting to see you know or the start of right it’s beginning right now and it’s going to go down bitcoin’s going to test some uh support levels allcoins will bleed out a bit um maybe there’s a coold down on the stock market because of J gme and so forth but then we find the bottom and then like you said when when people are Everybody’s scared it goes from greed to fear again and then we start moving yeah you want to wait for the blood in the streets as Warren Buffett says for sure for sure Brian great stuff man I love this this data I hope uh the folks watching are uh finding this useful and uh they can of course go and check it out on santiment right yeah get a free trial um here’s our pricing page where you can put in uh the code thinking crypto all caps get a nice I think 25% off your first month or first year whatever you buy uh but you you can also just open a trial and uh see how you like it for a week and decide after that so uh always great catching up with you Tony looking forward to the next one and uh you know cheers to your entire community and hope you all have a good weekend yeah likewise man thank you so much [Music]

Brian from Santiment joins me to discuss various crypto metrics around Bitcoin, Ethereum, Memecoins, GameStop, AI Tokens such as Render, Tremp and Boden. 🖥️ Sign up with Santiment to get quality crypto metrics – https://santiment.net/?fpr=thinkingcrypto Get 25% discount with code THINKINGCRYPTO
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