My thesis is simple. The market got buttfucked in 2022 as inflation made its appearance. Our regarded fed decided to make up the transitory narrative and do nothing, while they sat around and took turns mushroom stamping yellen's dumb fucking forehead. I understand that "inflation" is the rate of change, not the overall price, so they can say it's "come down" on a yoy basis without lying. However, there's another fun lingering effect from these hikes in price called cumulative inflation. The market was right to dump in 2022 and probably should've kept going and stayed down longer, but it didn't because Wall Street is run by actual craxkheads. Did anything get fixed? No. Has household income dried up? Yes. Has consumer debt exploded? Yes. Has the spending stopped? No. Will it? Certainly. "But look at the job numbers!!" Say the pundits. Yes, we've flooded our border with 15 million people who also like jobs. Of course they look good. A year of all your expenses being significantly higher doesn't stop you from golfing and doing blow, but 2.5 or 3 years of it will. Consumer is buckling and when they stop it will ass ram the growth that we've come to expect, from energy and discretionary to chips and communications. It is inevitable, unless we all get a surprise 20% federal raise as bidens last ditch effort to secure Obama's 4th term. I digress. Let's just boil it down to simple regard thesis mode. In 2021 the SPX high was about 4800. Then our dollars got diluted like Adam Aaron was the Fed chair president. Let's just punch 4800 into a cumulative inflation calculator and see what we get…. it's 5554. What does that mean? It means that the same exact index has a higher price tag but it's actually worth about 12% less than it was in 2021. It's just that simple. I'm buying SPX 5500 calls and patiently waiting for the bloodbath to begin like a big gay LGBTQRSTUV🏳️🌈 bear.
Cumulative inflation is the only reason we’re trading at these levels
byu/Waveblaster42 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Waveblaster42
30 Comments
It’s a repricing of assets. Natural extension of endless money printing. It’s all hollow though. The only true value lies in metals and Bitcoin.
I’ve seen this before. Try taking a couple ibuprofen and sleeping it off.
The minimum is 40%. All things will have doubled, on average, over time, and by the time it does it’s on its way to 60%. And every useful vidiot that said even once “it’s the ScIeNcE” through their mask while being unable to name even five element’s symbols, while four are gimmes, are responsible. Which is pretty much all of you.
nah Biden wont allow a drop before the election. stonks only go up.
Correct, same reasons housing has gone up, etc. the economy isn’t real, it just adjusts to the money printer. That’s why I don’t bother looking for a job anymore. Not worth it,
Listen I object to your use of passive voice here. The market didn’t just “get fucked in 2022.” Jerome is actively clapping your cheeks fella give him his due and he’s screaming squeal boy, squeal like a pig the whole time
Yep. It’s gonna correct.
🤌 you had me at Obama’s 4th term. Those job numbers sure do tell the story of what they are going to try to do this fall. Grab some 🍿
Bagholder spotted.
Yes but it’s not excuse for not using paragraphs okay.
Bro, you gotta learn to use paragraphs. My brain can’t handle it if it sees a large body of text with limited grammer. Anyway, I agree with this coz I am bearish and validates my positions.
You’re forgetting Geopolitical factors. WW3 is percolating in the background, we’re shifting from China to Mexico, India is going to be an enormous market for us in the years to come.
What if the US wins this new global sized conflict and our Rich take the riches of their Rich? Where do the wealthy keep their wealth again?
Covid relief bailed out the market first, the people second. To pay for it all our gov was down to transfer more wealth from the bottom 80 percent to the top 20 percent. Shrink dat middle class. Where does all that wealth end up? Trickle up baby
Also AI duh
What’s your take on purchasing a house right now?
TLDR use 2021 peak numbers adjusted for inflation to predict the top of current bull market.
As soon as I clicked on this I could tell it was regarded by the lack of paragraphs.
I ain’t reading all that 
[deleted]
Wait so immigrants coming here and working is bad now?
Inflation is traditionally defined as an increase in the money supply, prices going up is changing the definition so they can manipulate us easier and divide our frustration to anyone but the source of the problem; the people who print dollars and treasuries.
Jobs numbers looked outstanding but I heard full time jobs are getting axed while there was a boom of part time work. It’s not rosy at all. I’m a real bear and I’m burying my head in short term treasuries anticipating we get kicked in the balls. Hard. Longest yield curve inversion in US HISTORY. I’m sure we won’t all die….😅
Trading became a lot easier for me when I realized that the economy doesn’t need to be incredibly strong to stay at all time highs. As long as people keep spending and company revenues go up, the rest doesn’t really matter unless shit gets really bad.
I hate to say it, but if there are a lot of people out there struggling, they aren’t struggling enough to make people pay attention.
30mg Adderall is the only reason you’re writing at this level
Narrator “it wasn’t just that simple.”
Now this is some quality regard rant I expect from this sub.
Short Biden.
If you bought puts just say that.
the meltup will be fucking epic.
when regular folk realize they’re getting fucked raw by the fed, it will hopefully not be too late for the country to recover.
lots of world events to spark the flow of money into assets still. 6 tril waiting on the sidelines need to figure out what they are waiting on
It looks like its already happening. Revolving debt levels have stopped increasing year over year for 2 months now and credit card defaults are the highest they’ve been since the recession.
Adderal kicking in…even if it is due to inflation, not investing puts you further behind
Show us your puts.
Also, is that an /s when you say you brought calls?
Another thesis may be that the multiplier effect of the M1 money from COVID money and lack of actual productivity has been hyperinflating the SPX. So everything is right priced or potentially facing a correction unless further stimulus is provided in the form of interest cuts. In the absence of such, a delay would create a recession or stagflation.