Good morning fellow regards.

    A few days ago I decided to go balls deep in Krispy Kreme. $DNUT. With 570 12.5$ Calls 6/21-8/16 Exp and 2400 Shares.

    Here's why.

    "McDonald's partnered with Krispy Kreme"

    Yeah we fucking know. When that happened it launched from $12 to nearly $20 in HOURS. Who knew the buzzword "McDonald's" would create such an atomic shit fuck of a reaction from the market. Unfortunately for the apes behind the price spike, when something jumps 80% in an instant there will likely be a correction/overcorrection. So naturally the regards who thought they'd find value after a 80% spike got impatient and sold as it slowly bled and short interest took over.

    Now, here we are. 2 months later. Somehow from a fucking all time high to retesting all time lows. And the market makers have brought the positive narrative back and decided it's time to push this fucking thing back up. In the matter of a few short days we have had big firms adding positions, JP Morgan changing from hold to buy, Truist from hold to buy, price target increases, etc. The target average is 18$, with the highest around 24$ and lowest around 14$. It's important to note when the IPO launched at 17$ in 2021, revenue for the year of 2020 was 1.1 Billion. The IPO valued the company at about 2.7 billion. Which was 2.25x~ annual revenue (fairly common for most companys). If the IPO launched Today with the same ratio it would be 39$.

    Now time for the fucking sauce.

    While we still have a golden opportunity to buy at a value price, let me remind us short sighted regards of what the bloody fuck we seem to have forgotten. Krispy Kreme has a roadmap to get 100,000 access points around the world. And has been proving they can back up their desire. Currently they have roughly 13,000 access points to their donuts around the world. The partnership with McDonald's is not a speculative thing that carries risk, it's already happened at 200 locations and has had much success. This partnership is expecting to add nearly 14,000 additional access points and add 300-500M in additional revenue. That's a 20-30%~ annual revenue bump from this partnership ALONE. Krispy Kreme is already doing 10%+ revenue increases YOY and added 462 access points in Q1 with over 1100 YTD. And since 2010 revenue has been growing consistently every year. From 300M in 2010 to the over 1.7 billion in 2023.

    Now to the technicals. Yeah, my acoustic ass likes stock market astrology. It satisfys my obsession for patterns and numbers. Fuck off.

    Simply put, Krispy Kreme has been trading in a range of 10$ to 20$ since it's IPO. In the less than 3 years it's been traded, the moves have been consistent and aggressive. Often seeing 50%+ swings in the matters of a few weeks. Now, here we are, at the bottomm of the range. We have a daily double bottom confluent with the all time low price of $10 from January 2023. The daily and weekly indicators are starting to show sellers are exhausted. And after such an aggressive move up to ATH then back down to ATL, It looks VERY likely that $DNUT can see a quick jump, possibly in the matter of days to $13.51 / $15.68 which are the .382 and .618 retrace from the recent move of $19.20 to $10.

    So, with everything said, you're telling me Krispy Kreme is worth LESS than it's IPO price? LESS than before the news of a 20-30% revenue bump from McDonald's? LESS than after it posted a Q1 revenue beat of 10% with a 30% beat on international sales?

    I beg your finest fucking pardon you ripe cunts, but I do believe it's worth much fucking more.

    In this market it's not outlandish to expect a valuation and a run to $40-50. It's almost quite fucking conservative.

    I truly believe this will be one of the best investments for the rest of the year and in 2025 as earnings continue to surprise and the partnership is fully realized.

    Stay safe cunts and God speed.

    https://i.redd.it/mdzk6yy52x5d1.jpeg

    Posted by GethD4d

    10 Comments

    1. As well as the McDonald’s partnership in the US. They’re also becoming quite popular in Asia and sales are increasing

    2. Square_Rise_3638 on

      Do we think a 6/21 is too soon? Can’t tell if I should go for options or full on stock

    3. togetherwem0m0 on

      Krispy Kreme is not a good value play. Their donuts are filled with air and are too expensive for the material cost. The consumer is wise to this, for all the hype, they are lux donuts.

      If lux donuts sales are going up then this is your play but I don’t think so

    4. You must have counted the customers at Krispy Kreme’s outlet ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)

    5. Bads_Grammar on

      your play already played out, you’re up more than 80%. this is a gain post not a YOLO. fuck off.

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