BITCOIN DOWN: This Crypto DUMP Is Making Way For THE WINNERS CURSE! (18 Year Cycle)

BITCOIN DOWN: This Crypto DUMP Is Making Way For THE WINNERS CURSE! (18 Year Cycle)

in these deep dark depressing times of the Bitcoin cycle it’s important to remind ourselves where we are in the cycle and I’m not talking specifically or only about the Bitcoin or crypto cycle we’re looking at the broader picture here the economic cycle the real estate cycle there is still a lot of Buzz going on around the world no matter where we are in our Western developed countries within the business cycle and of course the stock markets as well today’s video we’re going to look at how cryptos are continuing to purge amongst the macro cycle the broader picture of prices continuing higher what we can do to position ourselves for that next move to the upside we’re looking at those cryptos dropping and then trying to position ourselves to those leaders amongst what is happening in the broader picture so we’ve got a big update to get through with you guys today hit that like button we’re getting close to 3,000 likes again thanks again for your support on the channel and of course to all of the degenerate jokes that I put into the videos you guys really enjoyed yesterday’s xrp turd jokes see if we can throw a few more in today’s video now there is the free crypto and economic report coming out today so less than 12 hours to go get on board with that if you haven’t already plenty more updates on that free subscription as well all right guys let’s kick it off with the economic news that’s out this week this is the stuff that makes the markets volatile but of course it’s only important on the day that’s the way I view it from my own analysis and that’s what I’m sharing with you guys if you’ve been here on the journey for several years now it’s the same flipping thing every single time the CPI comes up the interest rate announcements come up the PPI comes up the whatever the employment comes up now there is going to be volatility because there’s a lot of it this week we got CPI we’ve got the interest rates decision and then of course employment yada yada for the Aussies here and PPI at the end of the week but make no mistake the markets are going to do what the markets do because we are still in a broader bull market and for you guys following along at home we are in the winners curse phase of the cycle we’re seeing lots and lots of headlines of real estate prices skyrocketing around the globe and most importantly for this cycle it is based on the US this is the country that leads the world at the moment and probably for the foreseeable future if you like it or not well you’re probably going to have to find another planet to live on because this is the world that we live in uh house prices are continuing higher plenty of data we can go through but I’m not going to bore you with every single piece of data when it comes to the real estate cycle just note that the prices are up and yes there’s been a correction but of course you’ve seen prices Skyrocket and with every typical move to the upside and and depending on how fast it is you’re going to get some sort of Correction now we’re seeing those prices continue to move up again you only have to look as far as the headlines and this is for the cities that are desirable the bigger cities the cities that people want to go and move to so don’t try and compare it to some sort of random outskirts town that people have no reason to move to you might love it but we’re talking about the broader economy here and the real estate cycle the US interest rates have been on pause well we had a jump in July 2023 and then it paused in September so essentially it’s been at the same interest rate for 12 months so we can say it’s been at the same interest rate now for 11 months that’s a pretty good win I think in terms of understanding the uh cycle understanding the interest rates and how the media continues to get it wrong and you two can beat the media and beat the typical analysts that you see online that are continuing to purge the fear in the markets at the worst times you know that was the bottom in 2022 and 2023 telling us how the market had to collapse and of course we now know from history that they were all completely wrong so interest rates looking like they’re continuing on paes uh even if we were to get a slight decrease at some point over 2024 I think that might just fuel the fire even more which is probably not the greatest for the housing market at the moment eventually things are going to have to change you will see Cuts but for now it seems like uh the cutting the interest rates probably even just spur the prices on higher as we’re in this winners curse phase of the the cycle so following that you get to your Peak and then the collapse and major recession later in this uh in this decade so onto the S&P 500 just looking at this particular signal this oneoff signal here year uh it’s it’s a year since the bull market was confirmed it’s been about a year since the S&P 500 confirmed a breakout to a new bull market and that’s referring to this particular signal as we’ll review in the data and what it means to the market from here similar one-year analoges preceded relatively weak returns in the months ahead returns were weaker when the analoges concluded during summer months so the point here is that it’s coming into the summer months for the us obviously we’re in June you’re getting a conclusion of these analoges here and it’s been a year in these highs so this is all suggesting that there might be some uh slowdown with the returns over the coming weeks and potentially months relatively weak returns over these periods you can see from the percentages it’s not a great return over the coming months and the conclusion tells us well it is a one-off signal but when you layer it across other signals as we’ve looked at on the channel then you can see that this might be a time where you’re not going to see those significant gains like the market has had previously so this all I think for at least from my analysis falls into this particular type of cycle where we might see slightly higher Highs but possibly nothing like what we saw before of course this can be invalidated and then you start to see the market Skyrocket away which essentially still is within the real estate cycle because overall over 2024 my theory has not changed we will see uh higher prices over 2024 compared to what we saw in 2023 meaning I don’t think you’re going to see the same prices as 2023 come up in 2024 so I’ll draw some lines here for you that is 2023 and I don’t think for 2024 you’re going to see prices fall back into this Zone and consolidate again of course I’m a guy on the internet I could be wrong but this is what my analysis has shown me especially as we’ve burst out of previous consolidation retest and then a breakout retest of that all-time high another breakout and you typically wouldn’t see that fall back into this Zone consolidate again and then take off again for that end of the cycle I think we’re going to be spending more time at these higher prices and then taking off into even higher prices uh before the end of the cycle so that’s pretty much a look at that particular one piece of uh data lay it across the seasonal patents as we’ brought up to date in the last few videos slightly high highs you can see here on the Brown Line you can see it on the blue line as well so that’s your aggregate cycle uh the black line as well you got all election years so you can see this black line in the background slightly higher highs and then we get this sort of drop off just before the election that September October which is roughly end of Q3 early Q4 and then the end of the year is basically a big move to the upside now I bring this up most videos because to me this is like my Bible for the year I haven’t had a reason to not follow it things are still working as they should based on previous Cycles we go back decades upon decades upon decades to put this information together and uh so far it’s basically been working out relatively well nothing is exact of course I think we all get that by now but it’s kept us on the right side of the market if we are invested for the long term and this has been very very good where whereas the majority like we saw in 2022 and 2023 were expecting another collapse they’re hoping for collapses and now they’re hoping for collapses even more so they can enter because now everyone is bullish you know well a lot of people are bullish they’re getting more of an idea that well this has been overbought I need to get this correction so I can enter again and then it can take off so if if a lot of people at least what that’s what I’ve been seeing online a lot of people are hoping for this so they can enter it’s I think it’s unlikely going to happen that you would see some sort of significant correction past significant uh support levels that you can see here on the S&P 500 so so far this has been a pretty significant ific level 4960 and then the old alltime high roughly 4,800 points so that’s my long-term support line here is my shorter term support line at 4960 to 5,000 because that’s those previous higher lows and this is my theory here so that we can all remain on track especially if you’re new to the channel hit the Subscribe button don’t miss out on any of the content because this is a daily update looking at the broader picture and how the markets continue to progress so the theory seasonal trading range within a macro Bull and then we’re looking for any sort of invalidations the macro bull well surely everyone can see that now we’re in a pretty big uptrend and again you can go back to my videos and tweets I was calling this in this section here don’t call I’m not trying to call the exact low but during consolidation that’s when I want to be U contrarian to the rest of the market and I think we did pretty well here on the channel to be contrarian to the rest of the market at key turning points anyway moving on from that with the S&P 500 new highest daily close in history happened yesterday absolutely well I put on the line chart um this is today’s bar but you can see from yesterday new highest daily close in history NASDAQ same thing new highest daily close in history yesterday and the day before was that alltime high as we discussed in in yesterday’s video now the Dow Jones the laggards are lagging it’s not at a new all-time high yet it’s 50 or 71 days and 50 trading days from the previous old alltime High high and again here’s another look at the laggards that are lagging and this is the Russell 2000 so the low the smallest 2000 stocks the lesson here is not to get into the laggards during a bull market it’s just a reminder to myself again and hopefully you guys are also getting something from it people do this in crypto all the time we know the cryptos that they keep trying to buy up as it goes down and the same thing happens in the stock markets and this particular index will always show you the lagage because it’s the bottom 20 so if companies are getting strong in this then they’re going to move out of the 2000 hopefully get into the top 500 which is obviously the S&P 500 therefore the S&P 500 is the leader and this is the lagger because it just keeps picking up all of the smaller companies I mean it’s not rocket science really but a lot of uh even investment funds and hedge funds they they missed out on the top stocks here the in the NASDAQ you know your Nvidia and apple and Amazon Facebook and all all that sort of stuff and they go and buy up the lagot this is why the majority of people lose all the time because they give money to investment funds rather than taking charge of their own Investments their own money and learning I think at least the basics to trading and investing and so these companies get into these sleds because they missed out and they don’t want to look like a fool and they basically lose people’s money now if you don’t want to be on that side I highly suggest and yes of course it is our trading and investing education Tia premium link is in the top of the video description if you want to learn a little bit more about that check out the link here at tia. uh so this is the free crypto and economic report T crypto.com subscribe you’ll get an email where you can go and join the free Discord check out the Tia reviews here from our members in Discord how they’re trading what they’re learning how they’re implementing this for their own trading plans their own investment plans and it’s for the longer term as well you don’t have to be in front of your computer day to-day trying to trade every single pip out of the mark market and uh also we get into uh Commodities economic Cycles our um real estate cycle as well as we continue to see this around the globe Discord that you can get a link to with the video description here and of course the premium community over there as well if you want to take that next step now that leads us over to cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin and the purging going on that we can still see with altcoins continuing to slide against their BTC values and of course we want to look at some of the strong stuff too now this is the crypto fear and greed index I can’t work out why we are still above greed and there’s been many calls to say that this index uh is broken and that the terms that they’re using here or the data sources aren’t necessarily valid anymore but for now I’m continuing to keep this in my tool box and I’ll continue to watch it over this cycle uh the the main reason here why it could still be in greed is that coin hasn’t broken down and it’s still within a trading range above our key support levels one being around that 65k you know we’re looking at 64 to 65 which is the next 50% and of course still above 67 and for now at least has found support at 69 and continues to hold above $69,000 so I think while Bitcoin remains in the strong half of many of the 50% tools then we probably won’t see extreme fear or any sort of fear come up on the fear and greed index even though this is the crypto fear and greed index you can see it here on the longer term chart take it out to a year and it really hasn’t gone anywhere it’s basically just been in this greed section for many weeks now so that’s a look at um the fear and greed I think if we were to see Bitcoin have a bit of a flash dump anywhere here even to the 50% levels that’s obviously going to adjust this Market sentiment reading but we’ll come back to that in future videos for now let’s have a look at the Bitcoin ETF flows and they’ve died off over the last couple of days of course this data is a few days delayed as you only get to see it you know a couple of business days after the last business trading day so the latest data we got here is the 7th of June but an interesting one to note here a reminder to myself and hopefully to you guys as well at those extreme peaks look at that one there June 4th 12 ,600 daily ETF flows that was the fourth highest ETF flows I’m getting to something important here stay with me 13,000 13,000 point7 13,000 point6 and what do you got here 12.1 so yeah essentially this is around the fourth highest flow check out where Bitcoin was we are on this chart here fourth highest ETF inflow was that day there now these people came in towards the end of that move and then you got this nice quick dump here to scare out the weekends there’s the dump there on the 7th look at that so these people who were bought on who had bought on this day are either at a loss or at a break even now this is something that Michael put together on his channel so I suggest going to follow him as well there is a link to his YouTube channel and check out his daily videos it goes into more shortterm crypto trading updates with the strong alts the weak alts things you can short and as well I would suggest going to follow him like his content let him know that his big brother Jason send you over to his channel over there but essentially that I think that was a fantastic pickup to have a look at when the uh the excitement from the masses come in at these Peaks biggest day that we’ve seen in the last sort of fiveish months and what happens to them they get dumped on again it’s the same thing so as we get close to some sort of next big major move to the upside for Bitcoin and crypto be on the lookout for any sort of euphoria any sort of peak type of jargon that you hear floating around in cryptocurrency land where they’re just saying it can never go down essentially the feel is that these markets can never go down and you’re getting out too early just know that it happens every single time and write that down in your trading journals as we have done with our 3-day down signal yep we’re looking at it again because we’re looking at a time frame of about 4 to 6 months underneath the old alltime high that is why so we are into our 89th day we get to tomorrow it doesn’t seem like we’re going to get a new all-time high today so you know let’s see what happens we get to tomorrow it’s going to be three months then we’re only a month short of getting uh of being underneath the old all-time high so plenty of time to go it’s obvious that we’re going to get to three months underneath the old all-time high now uh but it wasn’t obvious back in March that’s the difficulty here is trying to forecast based on probabilities we had plenty of those to get through in the market back then with what the market is going to look like over those coming months and what we wanted to do over these coming months is start to position ourselves or at least obviously that’s my idea is to position myself into altcoins that are looking Stronger versus the weaker get out of some of the weak ones position myself into some of the stronger ones that’s precisely what we’re want to look at next on onto the crypto total market cap so this is the chart that you guys can access total three and we’re still seeing higher lows for me even though the last couple of days you’ve seen cryptos altcoins start to bleed out and yeah over the last 24 hours there a lot of these that started to bleed out obviously to the downside and started to lose value against BTC now as long as they remain above 50% and above their higher lows I think they’ve got a good potential to move higher when that next alt season comes and some people are short-term minded in that case go and follow Michael’s Channel you’ve got daily or intraday trades over there whereas for me I’m looking out towards the end of 2024 so prior to this month you know it was looking six to n months out and into 2025 so I’ve got a longer term outlook for these old coins so even though we’ve seen some altcoins move in the last month or two even and they’re starting to correct now I’m still looking further out for this next altcoin season and why I’m doing that is based on the stealth moves of the altcoin market in previous Cycles we’ve got a peak the co correction and then the stealth move back to the upside of course I think that’s go that happened because of such uh significant or severe Corrections you’re you’re going to see these stealthier moves climb rather than go sideways like what we’re seeing now and once this had climbed then you see the stealth move go sideways so you got this trading range so these time frames there 184 days to this Peak from that Peak so about 6 months underneath this top to where it broke out roughly there in July 2020 it’s about 160 odd days so quick maths what about fiveish just over five months underneath that top while it went through its stealth accumulation volume dropped off range average true range dropped off meaning the bars are getting smaller meaning there’s less interest in the market meaning the masses aren’t here the the the normies haven’t entered their meme coin positions yet but they will when it gets to that sort of thing and you see this average two range Skyrocket you see the volume start to go up and then towards those Peaks which is where you really need to start to get a little bit scared as opposed to enjoy the party is um the signals of larger bars and more volume at those Peaks and the market not going higher you can see that you get these big volumes uh right there at a Peak bar and then a reversal sure it went higher but it didn’t really go that much higher so the worst thing you can do after that is remain into positions or at least not take some sort of profits PL I think there’s still plenty of time to get to that in this cycle so let’s just focus on the stealth uh indicators here as cryptos continue to purge out we can see now and look at those winners salana this is a winning looking chart at the moment it’s always well for me it’s always important to have an invalidation level my invalidation level is down here it hasn’t changed still 0.18 and this is why right here the rather not Zone I’d rather not see salana drop below this against BTC but this would be the danger zone back here 013 so any sort of movement underneath those levels I probably have to get out of my positions and look for something else that has some more strength to the upside or at least some more free ground above those previous highs so that’s a a better looking chart than I mean we can pick it on pick on it again but I’ll just point at it here this time as opposed to opening up the chart you guys enjoyed those um tur jokes a little too much but so did I but that looks very normal compared to what render has done previously so we can see that did 100 days 99 days to the downside then took a few more weeks till for it to get going again it was putting in high lows along that journey and the previous move to the downt was about 50 days but this was earlier in 2023 when there was um a lot of consolidation that had already occurred and not such a big long run that had lasted let’s have a look from this top back to the low you’ve got a move there about 639 days so you know short of um couple a few months short there of two years to the upside so I wouldn’t be surprised if render vers BTC takes some time to consolidate maybe even breaks this diagonal line as it has done in the past take even longer to consolidate and then start to work its way higher when the energy and excitement comes back into the altcoin space so I think it’s important to have a look at a few different types of charts that could still remain in a strong position and in the case of render underneath the 50% level wouldn’t be the end of the world uh for this one I’d be looking at more um significant support and resistance zones that it had done in previous moves to the upside so that’s where I’d be looking for any sort of breakdowns if it gets back underneath very significant levels that had bounced from already then I’d probably say well this is another Dead one kind of like what happened to link so that’s one look at uh strong at the moment chart render as well and then to our meme coins we’re looking at another chart here there’s your higher low that I talked about in April so 13th of April was the low higher low there on the 19th and then strong above your 50% and it’s still above the previous old all-time highs however do note that it has gone on some significant runs so again like render if it’s gone on these big long moves I wouldn’t be surprised if it needed more time to cool off consolidate and go into one of these zones where you get smaller ranges on the bars because you want to see the interest dissipate the smart money buys up at those points and then you start to see the market pump again so you start to see the volume drop off you’ll see the same sort of volume uh profiles and bar patterns where it just basically drops off and then out of nowhere you start to see it climb and then the big breakouts occur so this one here I think is probably got some more time to consolidate we continue to follow up here on the channel hit the like button let’s go for 3,000 today and of course the free crypto and economic report coming your way in the next 12 or less than 12 hours I’ll see you guys back here at the next video thanks again for your support on the channel and your enjoyment of my dad jokes and wisdom until next time take care and peace out

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🔴 Video Reference Twitter/X Tweet – Altcoin Leaders vs Laggards
https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/1795638943419105456/photo/1

Description:
A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold. The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.
*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

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Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, Interest Rates, Winner’s Curse, REC
09:00 SPX, NDX New ATH Close! 2024 Pattern
11:15 Bitcoin, Sentiment, Price Analysis
20:30 Altcoin Analysis, SOL, RNDR, PEPE

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews