When to Buy Mining Companies (Stephen Wood Interview)

When to Buy Mining Companies (Stephen Wood Interview)

hey Steven Wood AA is it AA capital or AA cap we just call it a capital AA Capital you know what the AA is no you don’t like the oh no I’m thinking of geyser no what is it it’s a mountain yeah so um mountain of cash just a very big rock climbing mountain in Switzerland my two colleagues and I work together now for 14 years we used to run uh a small companies fund at a big Swiss fund manager so when we um ended up setting up Iger we wanted something Swiss and we didn’t fancy chocolates or cuckoo clocks so we went for a mountain or knives the federal fund you got a you got a few bucks under management are one bit over a bill um just on a billion dollars yeah yeah right we’re going to we’re going in the we want to go in the weeds today of the whether you hold it or not of uh what you think is uh interesting we’re covering I think we’re covering every bloody commodity today between uranium gold coal mineral Sands battery battery Metals Earth she’s talk about a blood One Stop Shop what a around the grounds around the grounds right where are we starting so I think you’ve actually developed a bit of a you got a bit of a flow of how you want to want this you want this next hour this journey to go on I trust JD to guide us through this right I I reckon that’s the place to start and I heard you in a podcast a couple months ago had a couple comments about the the sort of competitive in the industry what the structure is going to look like perhaps in a few years time and you’re you speaking to the fact that you think there’ll be a few you know a small handful of players that all yeah so there’s a couple of papers we did um that are on our website and they kind of got the quirky title of devil takes the high devil takes the highmost right which is a great book you might have read it it’s about Bubbles and stuff like that and devil take the highmost basically means um don’t be the last man left holding the baby when the Music Stops and the article we wrote basically compared um the IR or boom both in iron or and then obviously in and around the share market in sort of 200 34 through to about the GFC 2008 that L picks up the sudden need for more ion or as China puts down a lot of infrastructure and the rise of for skue from essentially nothing to you know what it is today and then during that period and we list a whole heap of them in that article um there must have been 15 or 20 ior Juniors just came and went some of them all and Atlas got to about four or five billion of market cap and then ultimately over the course of 20089 post the GFC bit of a wobble they mostly recover by about 2010 111 they’re pretty well all gone and we kind of put forward the speculation this is back in 2022 that lithium will probably go the same way and so our view of where we’re going to end up with lithium um particularly now that perhaps around cars in particular you know the industry looks like it’s going through a bit of an S curve it’s it’s j it’s jumped up looks like it’s flattened right out now demand’s still there but it’s not growing anymore um there’s a lot of incentives now to get EVS to move probably the next generation of consumers are a bit more circumspect about charging do I go on holiday do I get stuck somewhere um you know and I think we’re starting to see that play out everywhere the us the markets that matter the US Europe you know here um and so you know demand for lithium’s kind of flattened out and the price as we know as spine has gone from $88,000 a ton a couple of years ago to sub a th000 it’s now started to recover we’ve seen you know you know in and around the share market in Australia where there’s a lot of listed lithium mines as there was an inor in 20056 you know wipeouts all over the place mining companies in the space now struggle to raise money um some of them stopped Mining and in fact you know we’re going to be watching with interest to see you know how lion toown goes when it starts mining you know in the June quarter so it’ll be fascinating to watch which then brings us back to Igo which as a stock that traditionally has been a nickel Miner with Nova and then the acquisition of Western areas which they paid a lot of money for um happens to own 25% of green bushes and 50% of the quana hydroxide refineries so iGo share price has haved as we all know um since what about June July last year so in less than a year and it’s halfed because Nova doesn’t have long to go couple of years the nickel price has been under pressure and there been obviously ongoing discussions about government support um um in in the papers and there’s been discussion and the acquisition of Western is basically copped a billion dollar right down so you know from where iGo shareholder sets that’s been a bit of a disaster and then of course the spine price has come from $88,000 a ton to sub a th000 it’s now recovered a bit but in our view um the endgame here in lithium if there’s going to be an endgame that looks like iron or is there needs to be a couple of big producers and then a whole lot of other people and if we were to take a BET right here right now the two big mines that are going to be there supplying the bulk of the world’s lithium and it’s not a a market that’s you know it’s a fraction of the size of ir or so the two big players that are likely to be there at the end are going to be a green Bush’s mine that in the next couple of years expands from the current 1.5 million tons up to about two and pilra you know who’ve made some announcements today on their progress from half a million tons to a million tons so there’s your 1 million ton and your 2 million ton mine and the rest of it is either um small and yet to be proven and who knows how that will play out or it’s still running evaporation ponds which in our view while they have certain cost advantages because you don’t have to pay for the sunshine um are also less reliable and less likely to deliver consistently large tons week in week out so we think Igo interesting um because essentially you’ve got you know you’ve had the broom through the place you’ve had the right down to Western areas we’re not so sure about the outlook for nickel um a lot will depend on you know subsidies and how the industry plays out in Indonesia let’s just sort of say we don’t really know how that’s going to work the factors are largely beyond the management of igo’s control but Western areas is written off it’s on care and maintenance Nova is not going to cost anybody any money anymore it’s got a couple of years to go and now you’ve essentially got an iGo that’s halfed in share price if you’re simply making the positive case here it is that the lithium price recovers from the sub a th000 back above a th000 now recovers a bit more and then all of a sudden green bushes is making a fortune again that’s your bull case that’s your bull case for iGo what do you think the role of waging or be like you said sort of you’re going to be looking at pill gangor and Green Bush is the two biggest producers do you think is waging are looking like it might not last that long or it hasn’t got the quality we we would rather I mean I think if you had to pick third player it would probably be you know the wager minr um ecosystem um it’s up and running it’s backed by people with Deep Pockets um but unlike green bushes and unlike pillur you know and we’ll have this discussion again when we get to uranium kind of the trick with a lot of this is not only to get a good resource into production but you’ve got to get it like foris skew you’ve got to get it into production at the right time when you just Jag that um that piece of time when the commodity price just hits a Purple Patch when suddenly China comes along saying railways Bridges property property property I need iron or and then BHP Rio and valet are going right well we can now invest heavily to get production up and foris skue just happens to have already been partway through their you know their development phase to do you know some certain type of style of mining that people didn’t thought was think was possible and at 20 or 30 bucks a ton for IR all it probably isn’t possible but 80 or 100 you know what what they originally came with absolutely works so what is their store well it’s that it was that flat plane mining that they came out with early on they’ve obviously developed way beyond that now yeah but you know if you recall preg GFC some of those deposits were at 2030 $40 a ton for IR or no one wanted them but but that’s not the price of ion or anymore and so foris cuq gets going gets the cash flow has problems because they’re in business at the right prices you get to plaster over all the cracks and then you go and go and go and you you build your infrastructure and you cut your costs and you go again you go again you go again and now look what you got meanwhile if you were 3 years late getting into production and you’re suddenly dealing in the IR or Market post GFC and you need to raise work and capital you just don’t make it or you may not make it and in fact with ir or none of them did bloody lucky the iron or majes made it not the small ones cuz could could you imagine if DSR didn’t have the iron or to supply the to make the steel to make the DSi bolt a mesh wouldn’t the world have stopped China would have stopped DSi would have stopped mining would have stopped fallen in everywhere kiss goodbye your iPhones your Samsung Galaxies your EVS even your non EVS like pretty much okay I if ior is strong that means size strong and which means the world is strong planet Earth is strong yeah the the I I I just sometimes wake up from a nightmare Maddie my nightmare is I’m stuck in a mine that’s not using DSi ground support and it’s just caving in on me you imagine if imagine if they weren’t using any ground support cuz there’s just no I or it goes beyond that trap so look those Australian factories the DSi factories pumping out DSi ground support have kept the world imploding what is it JD go Australia go Australia it’s a turnkey ostion M it’s a win-win called DSi chucking on the DSi in the case of um like of iGo how do you how do you weigh up the the the the downside risk that comes with the non-controlling joint venture interest and in in a lot of like you can point to some kind of bizarre things that that must only be happening because they don’t have the right to say how things go in that joint venture one one in I mean when does the lowest the world’s lowest cost producer be the one that could Tails Supply right that doesn’t make sense like like logically and then they sold some stock piles with 180 day payment terms like in what world are 180 day payment terms like the norm unless you know you’re hamstrung well get it the choice you’ve got to make if you’re an investor is do you go with that with a share price that’s hared or do you go with a mine that’s probably going to fail pangora what do you mean well the option the option you’re talking about pilb now well you said there’s only two options like IG or like pangora is not going to fail um that’s another option that’s true well W is not going to fail yeah um pillur is there forever as in pillur minerals but it’s valuation plate like um equally I mean those at the end of the day to us are your choices um you look you basically down the the line for Value because your choices are p and IG yeah and yes igo’s got warts on it but if you had to weigh that up um if you ask as a small midcap investor and you had to weigh that up with a share price that’s half and yes to some degree they’re a semi- passive um holder of the world’s best lithium mind what do what do you look at the with the the nickel assets how do you I know as you said they’ve been written down but are they do you see is there any potential that they could maybe get a bit of coin for private equity for Cosmos or how keep it on care I know there’s still more Capital to tens of millions to go out the door to finish the ramp down but have they got what options have they got cuz now you’re scratch NOA in Forest Dania cuz they’re finishing well NOA doesn’t have long to go and neither’s Foria well Western areas at at where are we at $98 $9 a pound at the moment it doesn’t work so are they going to hold do you think they’ll hold Cosmos for this maybe if prices bate in the future but it’s it won’t be easy to go back into but or do you think they’ll fog it off oh to our way of thinking just concentrate on if you’re going to buy if you’re going to look at iGo it’s just about a recovery of you know $500 or $1,000 a ton in the spaming price and that’s all that really matters um do you get lucky maybe who knows um you know nickel just looks hard what about the decision to you know obviously they’re bought into it but they have the downstream in in quana which is you know compared again to to pilra a decision they actively sort of Steed clear of by and large obviously they got a arrangement with posco now but what what do you make of the the future prospects in quana and if you were the manager would you encourage them to keep putting Capital toward it or well the most important thing now is to get it working properly to start with and I don’t know what you guys would think but you probably want people to prove they can walk before they run you you don’t want someone pouring huge amounts of money into something until they’ve got you know step one working as it should so at the end of the day for us right here right now as an equity investor the share price is halfed nickels on care and maintenance can’t hurt you much anymore and um they’ve got the world’s best they own 25% of the world’s best best lithium M by a margin and it’s already paid them back the question is the up the up the bull case for us on oigo from here is if the lithium price can recover they are in production with a lowc cost mine well since it’s a pure lithium it’s a beted on the lithium price what how do you how do you view if lithium Americas like if uh thaa pass like put the sedimentary M improves up and then there’s more ponds and everything like in terms of like the the amount of lithium that can supply globally the world whether it’s oil or lithium or uranium or just anything is a wash in everything at the right price but it’s got to be at the right price at the right time and from our point of view once again we go back to that ion or thing we did um if you look at the thing as an investor from our point of view is if you look at inor between 2004 and 2008 and the numbers are in the in the study that’s on our website but I’ll just pick them you know from here and I may have these numbers slightly wrong I think since then the global Seaborn trade in I or has more than doubled and possibly tripled so where are all those Juniors like where are they if you’d said back in 2005 we’re going from 500 million tons 600 million tons of Seaborn trade and N or to 1 and a/4 billion or more in 10 years time how many of us sitting in this room in 2005 would have said for escuse is going to survive and quadruple in size BHP will double Rio will double Viet will improve a bit but not go too far and then 20 of these companies can to get wiped out who would have said that but is it on the who who amongst us would have said that it’s a tough bit I think it’s pretty logical to be honest they all go broke well it’s it’s an infrastructure I mean everything clear the volume of Seaborn trade and iron or would triple and every single one of those companies that raise money between 2004 and 2008 Bar None including Atlas is going to go Atlas would B to put Deb in the capital St Tru sh when they’re a high cost Miner went fast yeah who who would have picked it but they did was I wasn’t following markets in 200 so why is lithium going to be any different the bar the barrier for entry is so different in the lithium but compared to I all for the capital look at look at um develops the scoping study they put out for Pioneer Dome it looks like they can you know put put a float plan in there for a couple hundred million you’re mining something that that’s a th000 bucks a Tong compared to something that’s $50 to $100 a ton so the it’s the the capital barrier I think is I think I think that that’s why the the journey might be a bit different yep Y and you don’t think at 2 million tons a year or a million tons a year in the case of pillur that that just gives them advantage to recycle that means that they just keep mining forever and grow and the other stuff just comes and goes and it’s all a bit marginal just like I know I think the other one is like the fact with there’s a there’s going to be a bit of a seiling now or possibly know but a ceiling on lithium cuz like China’s got this this Reservoir or lipot they can just turn on and off whenever they want 1500 2,000 I reckon everyone would take 5800 wouldn’t they okay so where does that leave everyone I think apart from pbra and green bushes and a couple of others where at 1500 where does that leave everybody broke I I reckon I think 15500 bring on a lot of small like small lithium companies yeah I think your smaller ones would be able to would operate it well Piney D’s an example that that look the study says that could it can operate at 1100 it would definitely look like it could operate at500 oh and and but like all those smaller ones won’t have that much of an impact on the yeah on the supply on the global Supply either but it’s it’s the q1 cost quartile asset that endures the cycle IR respective of price and it Crees a greater proportion of of yeah of The Upside right whether stev’s right or I’m right just either way just get yourself into a game with an all body miners out there got to be in it to win it and krill are the bloody thing to find it for you oh yeah you if you m you got a one rig or a two rig contract coming up just give Krill a call they’re the they’re the wa exporation specialist bloody emails in the show notes great culture great safety standards absolute Elite sample management 100% success rate 100% success rate of superior sample management and drilling of holes and you know the best thing boys tell me buddy Fresh Off The Shelf here check out who works at kadril now I’m Dre Harvey and I am the business development manager for kadril yeah big thing was culture all the right tools in the shed OS your Steves Patty all the people that approached me made me want to be part of it and grow it to something into something special now Dr talk about coming in for a layup Drew Harvey we’ve been on this for last nine months so look Drew if you’re listening mate we’ve done all the work for you the me let’s do a metaphor we’ve spent essentially spent 14 hours cooking a brisket on the smoker Drew all you got to do is put it on a plate and feed it to everyone if Drew Harvey calls you be like hey I heard your money mine those good yeah yeah geez they made your life easy yeah we’re about to call you just bloody go Krill go Australia good foodie go Australia so Steven you know to relay that into another you know basket of Commodities Rare Earth that you know similarly flew through that 2021 period and have come crashing back down you’ve got you know companies like lonus which I know you’re familiar with and they’re also seen as a company with a a strong sort of moat around their business them and MP materials in America being the the two you know preminent Western players do you think a tie up there eventually happens that’s been rumored in in recent months well it’s got you know and you talked about before you know can there end up being two lithium markets sorry two nickel markets well the only hope you’ve probably ever got of ending up with two Rare Earth Markets is if you would think well the possible way it can happen is if lonus and MP was to merge and the Western world says all right we’re not going to buy our rare Earths off them at this price at a minimum and then the rare Earth’s price doesn’t perhaps like nickel get forced to go through these Cycles depending on you know what a few people think or try to wipe out their competitors at a given point in time um you know and lucer have actually made some comments about that literally today yesterday’s AGM yeah so um you know does that happen does that not but but but the other thing that that’s different with lonus compared with MP and everybody else is they’ve put a billion dollars in 15 years into learning how to process and separate rare Earths and actually no one else can do that they are literally it outside of essentially China so no one everyone else can mine it or can stockpile it no one else can sit there going there’s ndpr there’s heavy Earths there’s your little bits yeah and because that has you know remember that plant that’s sitting in Malaysia um equ me if I’m wrong but when did they turn that thing on 2005 2002 it had an ugly ramp up I think it was 07 very ugly yeah there’s a billion dollars or more gone into that yeah in working capital as well as capex so that’s not easy to do now you talk about a moat but you’ve got that plant you’ve now got Cal cracking and leeching coming online and you know the US government have given liners 250 million us because they obviously and by the way that’s not a loan that’s a that’s a grant to you know start establishing that plant in Texas so um you would think if you chucked in a US listing in mountain passes deposit that you then sort of almost got a US company sort of it’s a US Australian company but you can sort of see that the more assets you get on on the ground in the US the more likely you’ve got that us Inc for one of a better term around you know the um inflation reduction act kind of goes well the deposits in California some of the processing is in Texas there’s a bit else that get shipped out from Australia but that’s cool because they’re good guys and here we go we’ve now got homegrown rare Earths which we can now start adding Downstream to we’ve had a former um former guest of the show uh Kingsley Jones and he’s done some Wicked analysis on the the pathway all of these separated products take through the world and and even as the the separated the separated Rare Earth oxides come out of you know the the plant in um in Malay eventually all someone’s going to make you a magnet sold to sold to Japan it all goes through China at some point and MP materials have done I think some like definitely more work than liners when it comes to the the man magnet manufacturing sort of work like completing that Downstream stuff and and when you look at the potential you know merger of these two companies you’ve got Gina greater than 5% shareholder each time maybe John to affecting outcome you have potentially monopolization of of um a particular Market in the West um and greater magnet uh Downstream like like well you need more magnet it probably need places like Japan and or the US to to rein or to invest or in the case of the Japanese invest more or in the case the Americans invest some in making you know rare earth magnets out of ndpr the other side of it’s fine because they’re you know they’re the heavier Earths go into all sorts of bits and pieces small amounts and essentially you just need the minerals but in terms of making the magnets you need more people to make magnets I’m intrigued by the um like the the long long linest like when people hear about a rumor of a deal the the hedges will go I’ll I’ll buy the Target and I’ll short the aquira you know thinking there’ll be some premium but in this one they’re relatively similar market caps you long Lin is just knowing that the synergies will be great more Market power and even even if there’s a little premium paid you’re happy and what you’re hoping is it’s sort of americanize itself because at the end of the day that’s where the Bucks are they’re not here no one’s going to build a magnet Factory in Australia despite what you know Downstream processing might mean I think we got to be realistic Downstream processing means if lonus was continue to continue to expand as a business in the next decade that Cal goes from cracking and leeching to maybe a little bit more it’s not going to end up making magnets what do you think what’s your view on what Jan is up to between AR Europe MP materials lonus Brazilian rare Earths she’s obviously got just even just the rare Earths specifically is she TR said trying to affected outcome is she trying to don’t know be the global bloody Rare Earth supplier or what’s what’s 5% line is worth what is it I think it’s a$3 and a half billion dollar company so so it’s a lot 150 mil yeah it’s not much to her how much do Jun reinh goton of cash how much does she in Reinhard make a week oh God Twiggy makes four it’s it’s a it’s all like totally it’s round of drinks is it but she’s not substantial shareholder of many as listic companies no but it’s around of drinks isn’t it yeah but she’s let me just so you know there two two schools of thought right it’s like billion we’re trying to do something or or or bit here bit there bit there I don’t think she’s pting but like she’s I think she’s like there’s a there’s obviously a thesis that she’s thinking of she’s probably not thinking of the generations cuz she doesn’t want to give money to the all the kids anyway so but like one she’s yeah there’s obviously ARA fura was ages ago uh when she got into that but she obviously has some sort of uh big plan but lus and Mountain Pass are you know they they are at the end of the day as we sit here right now those are your two big minds and you wouldn’t have thought it’s going to hurt anybody if end up merging but there’ll be people on both sides going the price is not quite right but what do you what do you make of um ier as a as as you know potentially newcomer into the industry well any a seems to have a funding Gap now as a result of well it’s a big funding Gap because the cost and we’ve seen it through the last through the quartery from everything in the last eight months the cost of doing anything in wa just gone up and up and up I mean who thought 18 months to two years ago that $2,000 an ounce was the right price to be mining gold I mean you would have got laughed at well now that’s the number so um Alca build that plant for you know what got a $1.2 billion you know non-recourse loan um still got to pay interest on it now companies made some comments at a conference today that basically they got to go and talk to the federal government again about well $1.2 billion is not going to build us the plant anymore um we’ve got the deposit but $1.2 billion is now the wrong number and um is any Western Government prepared to underwrite the price of rare earth because you know it’s gone through Cycles in the past where you know the it’s a much thinner Market than for example you know something like I or copper and it gets it gets influenced heavily and right now it’s in the toilet so can Alca P afford to put up you know a $ 1.2 billion non-recourse loan top that in with another billion dollars of something Equity or debt of some description and then sell into a market at at $40 a a kilogram for ndpr we’ll know they can’t um and besides as we’ve seen with lonus learning how to separate out and refine rare Earths is not easy it’s it’s chemical processing and so there could be some learning there could be a lot of working capital headaches in that so you know maybe two billion is not even the right number yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes north but does it does it make sense for yeah there to be a um a complete you know Rare Earth refinery in any abber and also in Norland in Norland territory where the government sort of allocated to or do you think do you think there is like some natural consolidation that has to happen and you know someone makes a decision that how do how do you have a better allocation of capital rather than have two you know projects run with massive cost overruns and government on the hook to to fill the Gap etc those D the natural course of things you go bust yeah you know people pump a whole lot of money we just look at Western areas yeah we talking about iGo 5 minutes ago stuck a billion dollars in now what’s it worth that’s life so what’s the difference with rare Earths you know just because there’s there’s government loans out there to get stuff built you get to the end it costs you $50 a kilogram to make something and you sell it for 40 well 6 months later it gets closed down and it’s a non-recourse loan well too bad it’s written off the history history of lus is an interesting one because as they had ramp pop challenges they had continued support from the Japanese lending Consortium Y and it’s probably essential in in their success in the long run was that you know yep and remember Rare Earth prices went through you know various points in time when they were trying to ramp up there’s a couple of huge spikes in there yeah as well massive that’s exactly why the Japanese supported them because of the the tension between China and Japan yeah and then during that ramp up period as well didn’t the rare earth price get crushed so much that mountain pass actually shut down oh yeah H it’s now become MP yeah private Equity back listing yeah yeah what about BW that’s another company in in ramp up at the moment now getting getting there you know towards name plate they announced just yesterday off the top of my head that they’d reached commercial production what what were your views on exactly what we view on the the quarle and how do you see to what MD just said cost Gardens coming coming forward in the next couple months well Belleview is an interesting one from our point of view because if you go back to the March quarterly they generated about $20 million in cash flow um company has a couple hundred million do wor a debt the market has been speculating that they might need a small Capital raise 50 million you know plus a bit more maybe just to kind of wipe that out get it going down they generated 20 20 million bucks in cash flow in the March quarter that that’s including the trade receivables but yeah but not including the trade payables we’re likely to get a bit more this quarter and uh you know in our point of view the the ramp up looks like it’s going okay um we’ll wait and see obviously what the grades look like you know over the next couple of quarters to us the swing variable you know what a shock just is whether or not the gold price hangs in there at $2,200 $2,300 an ounce and the debt very quickly disappears well look it looks um if it drops away well then obviously then the debt doesn’t disappear the lead leading indicators on that last quarter look look really good in terms of what the obviously the grade the stoping grade’s going up and then they the development grade was like nine gr a ton so the stoping grade will be higher than that so that that’s all looking like it’s going in a really good direction well it’s pretty like it’s one of the best underground or bodies in Australia grade wise but it’s it’s more so like you know couple hundred th000 oun from a million tons pretty impressive but the the co the the costs of the interesting one I’m looking forward to seeing not not the guidance what the ACT what they actually will be because that you know everyone knows it’s hard ground and just just seeing what the impact of that’s going to be like pulling all the ventilation Rises through which is bloody you know takes longer it’s more expensive and just what impact that hard ground’s going to if that’s going to be a little off set to the gr I think from from an Investor’s point of view once again stinking great big high commodity price plasters over a lot of early problems totally and if you’ve got $2,300 an ounce divide point6 you know we $35,000 Australian for an ounce of gold um you miss bu a bit on your recoveries you miss bu a bit on your costs the quarterly comes up a bit short um as once again as with foris all the way back there in 2005 as with pilra in [Music] 20202 you know whatever working capital overrun extra thing extra bit something gets clogged you know whatever goes wrong if you happen to run into production when the commodity price has gone to the Moon to from a financial point of view yes the engineers have got headaches and the you know Equity Market participants are just simply going well yeah but what was the gold price 3 four months six months ago Sub 2000 it’s added $300 an ounce us you know big dollars so it’s more than five or 600 bucks an ounce and that just covers up when you when you’re in ramp up like pillur a couple of years ago like foris skue you know uh 15 12 years ago um maybe like boss and Paladin now you couldn’t have picked a better time to flick the switch cu the biggest headach is the working capital CU you know when when all of those things you’re talking about go wrong and you got 1500 people well obvious in case of a gold mine not but you got hundreds of people running around you can pay their wages whether the plant is producing sand or something you can sell yeah oh it’s going once they start mining that Deacon load they’re going to absolutely print cash it’s just well as long as getting to that point as long as they get there when the gold price is hanging in there how how do you view the the end point of the investment here because it doesn’t sound like what you’ve just described with iGo where you’re quite bullish on you know perhaps a medium-term uh lithium price you’re you’re playing the sort of rer and the drisking of the business as it kind of gets through there do you have like a like a nav value in mind or how do you see it playing out oh it’s just so hard to know because you say well yeah you you you you get ad value and then the the the trick to all these things is just you know from a financial point of view whether it’s paying down the debt whether it’s chewing through some horrible deal you had to do to sell your off take uh and then the price spikes and you’re you’re selling into something you wish you didn’t had anymore but you had to do it because the bank said you have to do it otherwise you didn’t get the loan and um you’ve hired contractors that you’re paying too much for because you didn’t have the money you know there just a whole laundry list of stuff you do when you’re getting these things up and running consequently you run in this case you run into a $2,300 and something or other dollar an ounce gold price and a 65 Cent currency and you just get to burn through all these problems and get yourself set up what does that give you in the end in terms of you know a share price and a and a value a broad range of things but you’d think once you burnt through all that stuff just more a lot more do you think do you look at do you think if they ex they execute this without a raise get the debt paid off so I think for memory they forecasting something like 400 mil ebit D so that would if if they get the r raate on the back of that that’ll put them at you know over a $3 billion company if they trade cuz what they are now they’re probably trading around four times on that thing so is that that’s obviously does so much better when you’ve got a higher gold price though could be a l that’s right so you know you know whether whether you’re talking a lot more a little bit more or will largely depend on you know gold price and Aussie dollar if you guys could just keep the cost of doing things in wa down a bit bloody jumb operators want to get paid too much mate um what do you think about their growth so you know they they’re in the they’re in depletion mode now they still they still got to do a later drilling so there’s probably a lot of organic opportunity at Belleview but what do you think about knowing who the team are where they’ve come from you got let’s look at I mentioned junde the other day looked at the declining grade of junde over the last four quarters do you you think maybe they might look at some inorganic opportunities pulling stuff back out of Northern Star or do you think they’re going to really just focus on bellw I mean you guys just look a bit further down the track than we do we’d rather they just got Belleview working the biggest value upside in in our view in the business right now is just get the thing working generate some free cash flow pay down the debt and then just over the next 18 months just optimize the plant and the costs and the mining and and you know I think I think from our point of view from an equity Market point of view um you know if I want of a better term I mean people keep telling oh I just want certainty well you can never have certainty but the reality is people will pay a lot more once the thing is operating in a small band and just operating and so for us right now looking at where that mine’s at um it’s about near mine opportunities and getting the thing working properly and starting to generate all that free cash flow and then people will pay for it and then after that well then you start to work into the Realms of you know what do they run off and do next um I mean one of the nice things about a listed Equity Market is that you can also choose if you start to think no I don’t like that well you just take your money and run at that point but you you that’s thinking more than a couple of years down the track when you think about how hard it is to get to where they’ve already got to um there’s a lot of hard operational work to go but to us um a lot of investors just kind of want they’ll pay a lot more for something that’s just working and operating and they’re not quite there yet but you want to talk about certainty there is no certainty certainty no better transition to detera royalties you’re just certain to get had a 6.3% fully Frank dividend on it but why they got five people on the board and like another eight Key Personnel attached to something that just takes a roll to you m you wen’t even in our chat yesterday with um Gabriel all of sand and we had we had this exact conversation something like what is it 12 million a year to run the shop I think last last half was like 5.3 million in operating costs and staff costs like like there still still later been but yeah yeah run a post office box yeah so so why do you hold the business Terror yeah oh because we just at the end of the day we’re a small midcap investor and there is no iron or in our space well there is but yeah we’re not fans of much of it yeah um so we have a business that you know yes as you say could run a bit cheaper if it wanted to but every single business could and is exposed to large lowcost mines that dominate the World Trade to that end the you know the bullish I or bet I’m interested to hear what you kind of think steel Global Production these sorts of things it’s inextricably linked I mean you know you can read studies that are this big at the end of the day um cost curves it’s sitting on top of lowcost Mines big ones with long lives what so what’s the contrast of holding um detera versus BHP well we’re small midcap investor that’s just a little bit beyond agreement yeah yeah so the m is in that thing yeah there are other funds out there that invest in a completely different way than we do and uh they own BHP and Rio and foris skue and so it’s a pretty it’s a pretty um you consider it a pretty safe like it’s a it’s a good one having the portfolio just because of a bit of certainty yeah you’re exposed to better mins than in iron or than we can get exposure to um in the x50 in small caps yeah would would it be within your sort of style to encourage management to look look at cost at any point is that just not how you operate no that’s that’s yeah um we do um we do take corporate governance and you know suggesting things to people seriously but we also got to be realistic we’re a small Nimble small cap and midcap investor and you know uh having People Like Us ringing up and suggesting things to um companies um you might as well pick your battles that you realistically think you can you know influence an outcome and if you don’t and you’re unhappy um unfortunately the only way to kind of resolve it’s to to sell your shares and go and find something else would would you like to see them do a deal or just continue don’t really have a view we’re just perfectly happy with how it is right now yeah yeah how about put it this way we’d like them to do a good deal but how the hell do you know what the hell that means what what sort of deal would they Do’s no better than what they’ve got like there’s no there’s no better royalty and if you bid for anything you have to pay through the roof you can’t out you’ve got a worse cost of capital than the other well then there’s that and I mean do you guys remember back to that should buy the whole ride all right yeah what was the predecessor to alassa uh SSR no alassa the gold the wa bit that went into alasa an underground Gold Mine Higginsville that was aoka wasn’t it AA yeah well remember there was like two sets of Ro royalties to Morgan Stanley and people went along every single day of the week and said when are you going to buy that back so the company will make a bit more money well in that simple statement as a conundrum Morgan Stan not going to sell it because they’re making so much money out of it that in order to sell that thing out you probably ruined ruined um aoker on the way through so you stuck with it so the flip you know with detera is well you wanted to go and do something but you want to pay through the nose for something and then you know what you’ve got there right now is wrecked yeah I I just want them to do something to justify how many people work there well you you can just yeah make it private unlisted fire all all people just every days anyway maybe we’ll go 249d no no we got we can’t move the dial there how about boss energy in you know chat a bit about uranium getting pumped how good’s the yellow cake we were pretty intrigued over the past couple months as they were getting to first drums as they call it in in uranium land and there were a couple couple week holdups along the way these things always tend to happen in in rampa about boss and Paladin or just just boss we’ll start with boss to start um yeah so how do you sort of see it now and the the valuation that they trade on you know obviously they got the Texas Project coming online quite soon but it’s still a while away before they get to State the ramp up slow yeah well slow as in it’s known but it’s going to take a while yeah y um look I think once again um coming back to some of these threads that come right through this foris skue 2005 where we at with lithium right now or we’ve had our um Monumental price spikes when you suddenly need more than is available 2 3 years ago um now you then roll forward to um uranium where we’ve got a situation where and once again there’s a couple of papers on our website that you know David’s written that go through this we have Fukushima the world was thinking this is a good idea um was obviously way earlier in the decarbonization passion compared with where we are now but we have 80 to 80 to 80 to $90 a pound for Uranium Fukushima happens 207 we hit the bottom and we’re at sub30 if you depending on the day of the week you picked we’re not a single Uranian mine in the world is maybe apart from a Russian stockpile is economic and ever since we hit cop 26 and we got Renewables up to you know 25 and 30% people’s you know power grids now and you know depending on your point of view about where this goes if you’re going to really Chomp into Basel load power um and country like Australia is completely coal dependent um others are a mixture of coal and uranium already I mean us is 20% uranium already or nuclear already and you’re starting to see the costs of getting the Renewables from 30% to 40 or 50 or 60 um you know in the years ahead getting harder um and the world’s flat out building reactors again um we get cop 26 you know uranium gets nuclear gets felt out a bit then we go to cop 27 then we get cop 28 everyone signs on the doted line says Yep this is what we got to do meanwhile sitting in the background you’ve got EVS which have come up and now you even more significant perhaps is the data centers where if you now want uh on a US scale to run a clean green six-star data center you almost need the reactor next door um that’s where we’re headed I mean the data centers that next DC want to build here um forget even bigger economies you know we’ve going from 2 to 5 megaw the ones they want to now build not not on the drawing board yet but the next drawing board are 2 and 300 in fact or bigger you know we got this conversation going on in New South Wales now about a rarang which is 2.6 megaw well it’s not in inconceivable you going have a data center build you know somewhere in the Sydney Basin that will chew up um a quarter of a rang’s capacity and that’s assuming of course the New South Wales government pays to keep it operating we’ve had the same thing happen in Victoria with um Yol and one of the LW yangs that got to be kept running so you know we’re in this whole discussion now whether it’s EVs and um and data centers and AI as to whether in fact electricity has gone from the world’s most boring utilitarian type um industry to actually needing to grow so e even depending on how people manage to you know cope with the cost of Renewables transmission and Renewables you know storage however it is you do that um you might need it all so what are your choices pay to keep the coal running whether you’re here or in Germany and build the Renewables or do you what are you going to do we going to sit here in 2050 double the scale of Renewables in this country and still have the cified power stations running because the data centers have come along and gone Hey where’s mine or do you want your do you want these not to work I think I think the world’s just got to accept which is because every every option is like this big deficit if all this has happened they need to accept that there is going to be a piece of everything for a very long time that’s right to that’s to service it um and probably and if you look at the you know signatures to cop 28 um the the one technology that’s now getting heavy reinvestment in it um is nuclear the reactors will get better smaller you know better better better there’s more investment now going into it which which completely stalled you can see that in the uranium price that hit $30 a pound in 2017 2018 at 30 bucks a pound no one’s interested at $90 a pound it’s telling you that you know there’s demand out there and on top of that um we’ve now got this geopolitical situation where uh unlike Rare Earth for example it would appear that whether it’s us reactors or you know maybe French ones um the West geopolitically the West is not happy about buying enriched uranium from Russia um when will we see nuclear power plants in Australia you tell me what do you think what do we thinking what do we hope we got to we got to bloody get to mine it first let alone put the reactors there have you got have you got a um if you’re in the small cap space do you do you look at that wa uranium mining ban as a bit of a a call option on that getting changed one day I don’t think that’s true by the way I don’t think you have to necessarily allow the mining before you know they they’re not going to allow yeah I know but they’re if they’re not allowing the mining over there but once again you are getting a reactor get into production at the right time so when it all goes wrong which it will make sure you got a sky high price with which to smother over all your cracks and and therefore at 90 bucks a pound I in our view I mean you can have the best mine in the world and if it comes on stream when uranium’s 30 bucks pound you’re going to go bust and you get parked and then as an equity holder you get wiped out and then half a decade later someone gets to have another crack because the mine doesn’t go anywhere but from an equity holders point of view the the interesting thing about boss and and Paladin as well right here right now is that they both starting to deliver drums in the case of Paladin you know in the June quarter um and in the case of boss you know sort of shortly thereafter but it’s happening um and then they’ve then kind of got well you might say lucky I’m sure the management would say it’s good management you know they’ve now got their 30% stake in timer as well which it’s going to go into production at some point later on this year so they get double up um and they get to start selling their drums their early drums at 90 bucks a pound and they’ve got contracts and the Russian bands come in and the kazaks are suddenly having problems with their production and cico is not exactly shooting the lights out and right back to that whole discussion we had about your wa situation if it takes 3 years from go to wo to get a lithium mine up how long do it take to get a Greenfield’s uranium mine up right now 20 30 2032 2028 probably 2030 at least because you’ve got you know the worst permitting the worst environmental standards the you know the worst of everything all the um you know for one a bit of a term you know bit of term you the misinformation around uranium and what it means and what it can do and you know is this all just going to end up in a in an atom bomb where well you know it’s going to be very hard to permit so it’s to us once again it’s about the mines that are getting into production now and the got the timing right um there’ll be more uranium because the the price is is now going to stimulate more but the earliest next mines that you’re going to see whether it’s you know is it is it wa needs to change the rules does the federal government need to change the export licenses um do we just not want you know what happens to to Russian uranium it’s a much harder commodity to smuggle by the way than oil you know you’re not you’re not going to I mean you know all the oil in the world’s still pouring out of Russia it’s just you know moving around the place and it’s finding a home what about barrels of uranium you know will a us um utility sort of have uranium fall off the back of a truck for a well no they won’t it’s just not going to happen but so anyway back to the mines right time is now the right time for lithium was a couple of years ago the right time to get your IR or business launched it was 2007 B the lead times for these things are long and you just got to get there at the right moment bvw the surely the right time to be launching a high-grade gold mine is when the gold price has suddenly popped up $300 an ounce because if it came out at $1,800 an ounce we might might end up with three capital raisings and six time 6X on the bloody share count and the whole thing’s a disaster but the mine’s fine but but but you end up with less share count less debt an opportunity to generate some cash flow and then get your cost down by reinvesting in your processes your business your infrastructure your own mining Fleet you know all the things that cost you money get rid of your bloody um uh the off takes you’ve had to do which are at a terrible price bad terms and conditions you know so I think the nice thing once again about Boston Paladin is the industry’s taken off the world is building reactors the supply of uranium out of you know um the other side of the geopolitical Divide looks like it’s going to be problematic um and Along Comes boss based in South Australia licensed in in production and uh Paladin with 75 % of the mine in um Namibia which in Africa is about as good as is as stable as it gets so once again I think the theme you know for us when we’re looking at all of this is um right place right mine got to be the right time so it sounds like you the way you’re investing and is not thinking too far ahead it’s like right who’s going to make money in the next two years well yes and it’s not to say say that if you get the time if the timing is just a bit wrong you don’t eventually get there but from an equity Market point of view you get there with triple A share count or you get there with um well if you get there with triple A share count you get there if you get there with a pile of debt you often go bust um and then you get shut down and then the debt gets wiped out and the you know like the third owner of the hotel the the third owner makes the money not the not the person that build bued um and the nice thing about some of these commodity Cycles we’ve seen over the last little while is that if you get your timing right you get to get rid of all those things you need all those deals you need to do which actually are just basically whether it’s an off take or a an appalling interest rate on some debt or you’re just sort of selling off part of the business and a high commodity price gets you the opportunity to get that part of your business back without having to res too much either have well Western areas perfect case and point right they’ve had two of the best nickel mines that anyone’s ever found and what’s happened it’s now been written off why cu the nickel’s been mined at sometimes $250 a pound and all you were doing was mining below cost and ra constantly raising money out of the equity market and then suddenly you know at $8 a pound flying fox or um spotted qual probably fabulous but not, 1400 M but imagine imagine if you sh I mean it’s all spilled milk right imagine if you just went at $3 a pound 15 years ago let’s just shut this down shut it down at $8 a pound you know spotted coal at 300 M is probably making Aus even in this world of nickel that we’ve now decided is a disaster but the problem is you’ve exactly your point you’ve depleted it because you were mining at the wrong price I mean the it’s very very hard to go and tell a mining company though just to sit on it pack up and wait half a decade no you can’t pay yourself a juy performance for doing that well they didn’t um didn’t huy look at it when we’re saying like Nova’s Like a Rock Factory and they you know printing cash but I think when they added up what they paid for it and like Nova all the cash that come out of Nova didn’t even didn’t pay what they paid for pay for off what they paid for it effectively yeah or to you’re at quite a negative if you have to pay a huge amount to get it if they had been the ones that discovered it it would have been great would have been yeah so like yeah even though it’s printing cash printing a bit of cash it hasn’t been a good investment so you know uranium we we think investors will pay more for Paladin and boss if you’ve still got an80 $900 you know uranium dollars per pound sitting there in six months or a year’s time and their Productions come up you know people will pay more for them do you reckon they’ll get hungry on the m&a or do you reckon they’re going to be as you said pretty similar to you want sort of gone once already um it’s possible but you would just hope that the challenges in the next 18 months are all about getting getting in production getting the first drums out getting the cash receipts in um well before the end of the year in the case of Paladin and you know third quarter in the case of Boss yeah and boss doesn’t have debt Paladin has a little bit but not not expect BOS boss is sitting on um in the cash the inventory it’s 400 million in liquid asset something yeah so what do you they yeah that would come a point where they’d have to distribute some of that You’ think if they don’t buy anything um who knows you know who knows yeah well straight into your pocket it’s also flexibility right if like meeting their their contracts if they have any ramp up W you know your your inventory comes in handy that yeah but they’re only like 20% contracted they most of their okay they’re yeah they’re very exposed what do you what do you think about the I guess the opaqueness of the term contract Market uranium tough to get Ino anywhere yeah it is because you know at the end of the day you I mean to be fair you’re dealing with utilities who need certainty just certainty so they set up a long-term contract and U what what does the spot market for Uranium actually mean anyway when you got people on the other end who are running power stations yeah um yeah what does that actually mean so but there is a spot price yeah opaqueness of the pricing like you just you can never get a you know kamiko the they’re the they’re the best of spinning it uh but you can never you just never know what I know there’s multiple contracts that get layed in as you go but you’ve just never got a projection on what they’re going to where they’re sitting well the only thing you really know at the end of the day is I guess once companies get into production you can see how much they produce see how much they’ve sold and see how much revenue they got you know you know at that point yeah the last one I want to touch on really quickly is White Haven spoke briefly before about it but can you just sort of speak to what you see in terms of the valuations or the valuation of the the company and we really like what they’ve done our history with White Haven um puts a smile on our face um we were owners of it when it deared after the I’m just I’m trying to remember exactly what happened now whether it was the the consolidation of the hunter assets they geared up they deared she went for An Almighty run and I’m sure the commodity price had something to do with it but it’s 2015 from memory um that happened again when obviously the coal price went through the roof um a couple of years ago and they hit a production sweet spot so the company’s gearing just collapsed in you know basically the space of six months and we’re hoping the same thing’s about to happen again they’ve you know depend if you if you measure it by Revenue they’ve just tripled the size of the business um with the acquisition of bmas you know two big metco mines or one big metol mine and one mediumsized metco mine in Queensland um the debt is currently sitting at around you know whether it’s net or gross between one and a quarter and one and a half Aussie um and you know at some point in the next six months they’re likely to announce the sale of you know 20% of the of the equity in blackwat um optimistically you’d hope they get something close to a billion Aussie for that um might be a bit less but you know you you put that in and all of a sudden um you got sort of half a billion dollars wor a debt and it every single day now that the me coal price hangs in there at $245 a ton the thermal coal price you know with the hunter assets hangs in there at $140 something dollar a ton which by most pundits wasn’t supposed to happen it was supposed to be 120 and you know you only have to start looking at you know obviously this is pre um pre the equity Stakes that people have in their Hunter assets but you know 15 or 18 million tons and add 20 bucks us so$ 30 small dollars um times it through look at the debt just collapses um so you know we think with White Haven it’s been a great deal they’ve done um and every single day the coal the two coal prices hang in at the current levels um the rate at which this company will degear particularly you know if you include the sale of 20% of black water um they could be back in our view you know with any year in the position they were in except they’re now you know more than 2/3 met coal third thermal coal which is optically also for a company a much better place to be in you know because you’ve got um you know we talk about the transition we all talked about earlier um metco is a critical mineral metco it is met is a critical mineral electricity by the way is more critical than all of it CU without electricity we actually have no economy yeah um at all so you know thermal coal is going to be part of the mix until the transition of Base load power or vast amounts of renewable storage that we can’t currently envisage is somehow dealt with and you know it’s not a 2030 problem it’s probably not even a 20 240 problem so you going to have thermal coal high quality thermal coal in the mix we hope for some period of time to go um um and if you get thermal coal prices north of 120 us a ton for sustainable period periods of time and or met coal which is essential for steel um you’ve got a de gearing of of the White Haven balance sheet at a rapid rate and you end up in net cash pretty quickly yeah um and those last two businesses probably are a different metric to what we’ve consistently talked about on the way through here which is right minimal right mineral launch at the right time they are large businesses with competitive cost bases and huge amounts of cash flow trading at low multiples um you know free cash flow yields can very quickly get above 10% with franking um very quickly yeah yeah it’s fascinating there’s um there’s no businesses other than the hydrocarbon businesses which like now have hug yields Frank massive yields yeah it’s like I think you know one of the yeah probably advantages of being active capital in in this in this time where where a lot of other capital is mandated to avoid those hydrocarbon businesses probably doings a disfavor well particularly when um you know you you know met coal is you know and I think there’s a recognition um whether you want to bundle it in as a critical mineral with rare Earths and lithiums and things the reality is it is critical without Med Co there is no steel um and yes the future may well have green steel and you know various ways of attempting to produce that but you know look at the size of the world steel industry I mean a couple of uh green steel plants are going to show the way for what you know may well happen but what sort of time frames are we talking here to convert solar into something into something and then end up with you know with steel is in in the scale of that industry is a way off so for the foreseeable future it’s Medco is is critical for steel dve loves it m you you need a lot of coal in your EVS no one wants to talk about it right now you need a lot of thermal coal in your EV as well totally oh totally yeah oh very good thanks for making the time money ofet to summarize nice to meet you guys buy mining companies when they’ve got the building their mine and they’re going through the Tailwind the commodity price at the top the Tailwind of the commodity price and don’t don’t kid yourself the commodity price always lasts yeah uh and the trick to it is to get the debt paid off the operating cost down the take or pays dealt with the high interest loans paid off and if you can get through all that while the commodity price is high obviously I was a big game but you got foris skue which did not share price did not peak in 2007 or 2009 2011 or 2013 it’s you know 202 just it’s just there you go it’s just kept going and that’s what happens or that’s what can happen on on obviously one of the biggest Commodities in the world when it goes right for you at the right time you end up that business and Green Bush is pilra um let’s see what’s about to happen in uranium and you know the advantage you get in in our view from right place right time right commodity price right now the advantage you get if if you look at the example of foris cuq Might last 15 years in fact you might never catch them and if you’re the founding if you’re the biggest shareholder you get to keep all your shares like Twiggy with his 36% there you go because if it had gone wrong and he had to get other shareholders and had to do ongoing Capital raisings he wouldn’t end up owning that much of it he would have owned a very very very small amount by the time goes yeah yeah now very good mate that was good fun thank you hopefully you enjoyed it too yeah who right hey there you go bloody that that was good I like a bit of bloody a bit of back and forth bit of arguing a lot thaty Old St there was some ttention but I think we navigated it and it it was it was actually a really luck satisfying conversation by the bloody I like a bit of bloody different opinions bit of Backbone in people’s beliefs it’s good thinks what are these young Pricks ni right thanks for coming on stud thanks a capital for it and uh thanks all the partners the God talk about G Australia DSi and cadr who else we got we verif verify they’re getting into Australia anyone on Australia wants to work for verify give verify call uh get wet Solutions that’s Australia bloody Silverstein CR Insurance wa water balls and oh to this is Australia Brooks that’s it Brooks AWI and get on spark while you’re at it get on spark for your bloody charts and Market data for an active ISX Traer money the information contained in this episode of money of mine is of General nature only and does not take into account the objectives financial situation or needs of any particular person before making any investment decision you should consult with your financial adviser and consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives Financial situation and needs

We sat down with Stephen Wood of Eiger Capital to chat through his views on the world of resources.

Stephen has been invested in a host of companies across many commodities that we love to chat about, from goldies to iron ore, and uranium to rare earths.

He’s got a philosophy on picking miners coming to production in a bullish market which we got a kick out of debating with him.

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CHAPTERS

0:00:00 Stephen on MoM
0:01:27 Iron ore mirrors lithium
0:21:40 Lynas & MP tie up?
0:29:02 Iluka’s funding gap
0:32:57 Will BGL raise cash
0:39:41 BGL growth
0:41:48 Why hold Deterra
0:46:48 The Uranium market
1:04:45 Backing Whitehaven

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DISCLAIMER

All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only.

The hosts of Money of Mine (MoM) are not financial professionals. MoM and our Contributors are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should consult a licensed financial, legal or tax professional.
MoM doesn’t operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given. MoM strive to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this podcast but we don’t make any representation or warranty that it’s accurate or up to date. Any views expressed by the hosts of MoM are their opinion only and may contain forward looking statements that may not eventuate.

MoM will not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use of information in this podcast.