BITCOIN CRASH: This LEADING Indicator Will SHOCK Crypto Investors (Watch ASAP)

BITCOIN CRASH: This LEADING Indicator Will SHOCK Crypto Investors (Watch ASAP)

what would you say and more importantly what would you do with your portfolio if we were able to show you that the major onchain data analytics the one that almost everyone reviews on Twitter on YouTube and refers to as a major signal that the markets must boom is in fact a great contrary indicator I’m talking about the Bitcoin ETF flows in this video I want to show you how this has been a very good signal to do the opposite to the crowds so make sure youve hit that like button share it with a friend especially those friends on I don’t know YouTube or Twitter who refer to the flows of Bitcoin ETFs as a way to suggest that the markets must pump when in fact they’re screwing you I personally think it’s very lazy analysis but I’ll leave that decision up to you after you’ve seen what it is that I’m going to show you in today’s video so make sure you’ve hit that like button and subscribe to the channel it is your home of macro cycle analysis with me Jason Pino we’re covering Bitcoin cryptos the stock markets and of course the real estate cycle where macro investors covering all of the markets here let’s start it off with the traditional markets going through some data for the macro cycle before I get into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and looking at this particular signal but I just want to start today’s video out with this particular quote yet again as we’re in our everything bubble everything bull market things are heading up overall in the long term remember we’re looking at the longer term picture here yes crypto have been down for 48 hours and we’ve lost a bit of money on our altcoins but we’re looking at the overall picture here it hasn’t changed the views remain the same markets continue up and markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent this goes in the face of over 90% of analysts out there that have looked for Corrections in the markets over and over and over again just has not happened over the last couple of years this is what we’re seeing almost on a daily basis at the moment new highest daily close in history after hours open new alltime high again and yes the old comic comes in and says well a top forms at an all-time high it sure does but there can be multiple all-time highs leading into that final top as we’ve seen in recent history in 2021 there was a top uh on January 3rd of 2022 so the entirety of 2021 you had new all-time highs every other day and then eventually you do get a market rolling over but markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent so trying to call a top every single day probably isn’t the best use of funds here we are on the S&P 500 so the update another daily uh highest close another new all-time high NASDAQ another new alltime high daily close it was a couple of points well one full point off a new all-time high price and the market has slowed just a little within these last few hours but again new all-time high prices almost every single day over the last couple of uh weeks so markets continue higher what is this data looking like what is the economic data saying out there should these markets correct well a major one that I’ve looked at and I try to um dispel the fallacies around these particular data points because these news headlines come and go they are popular and then they die off again once the data changes or however that analyst is looking at the data the main Theory here is that unemployment ticks up therefore we must go into recession as it’s happened in the past several times and so that’s what this particular uh objective data is looking at unemployment rate versus a 36 month moving average I like that you can actually put two pieces of the puzzle together and have a look precisely as opposed to just unemployment went up and the gray area says recession at least you’ve got something else here to look at you’ve got a 36-month moving average as well which is of course on top of the data itself anyway but just um scrolling into the actual results you can see here S&P 500 after unemployment crosses above the 36-month moving average since the 1960s you’ve got a few losses here after 12 months and in particular 2008 was a very big loss 40% down 12 months later when that signal occurred so there is your signal there Market went down from that point there’s 2001 Market went down from that point but then you got 2020 Market was up we’re still up you’ve got 1990s Market went up and then went ballistic you’ve got the 19 80 move here Market went up there was the midcycle correction as I’ll talk about in a moment and then the market went ballistic after that you got the 1974 Market found a bottom and then traded up into that first half of the real estate cycle and here are the last couple of uh data points there down and then eventually had that next Peak as well so there’s still several years in it the unemployment rate ticks up therefore we must see a recession very soon and I just want to suggest that that is probably unlikely at this stage if it’s a very soon as in 2024 I can’t see that happening at this rate uh in 2024 another piece here is the S&P 500 after going 3 330 days without a 2% down day plenty of points here 10 essentially you’ve got the 60s and the 70s here where the market was basically flat but we’re seeing a lot more money printing happening this time around as opposed to what happened before and you want to call the Market going up on inflation or money printing or whatever you want to call it the end of the day you got to choose do you keep your money on the sideline or do you put it into the market where it is rising whether that’s real estate whether it’s stock market whether maybe it’s Bitcoin or crypto for you so you got to make that decision even if you still believe that everything is rigged everything’s manipulated the government keeps printing money things are going to end bad they probably do but you got to do something with your money that’s what they’re trying to force investors to do so you got to choose what you do and I guess it comes down to the timing what do you think is going to happen from this point I’m suggesting and what I’m doing is I think there’s still a fair bit more time to go so come back to the quote again markets can remain irrational long than you can remain solvent and we’ve heard all of the stories why the market should collapse and they talked about it throughout 2023 and now into 2024 and it still hasn’t collapsed and there the majority have missed out on some pretty significant gains to the upside this is the stage that I believe we’re in the winers curse 2024 is somewhere around this zone so even if I haven’t moved the circle on my chart here essentially it’s in the winners curse this Bend in the chart to this Bend here winners curse then things get a little bit iffy the market rolls over takes more years than what we’ve seen in the past uh throughout that cycle coming out of the low of 2009 through to 2011 and then you start the cycle again so more time to go into the peak real estate and the economic cycle maybe stocks go a little bit higher for longer before we all come crashing down together and that’s my overall view of the market so Bitcoin cryp cryptocurrencies where do we currently sit uh 3-day down roll this is what we’ve been covering here on the channel essentially I repeated because that is my one of my major theories as to why the market has not reached a new all-time high yet but I think there is one coming we had a very significant signal here and that has kept the market underneath the old all-time high we had Peak Euphoria at the top and then we had Peak ETF inflows very very peak in ETF inflows there it is March 12th 13,700 inflows and the peak of uh the price was on the 14th but essentially the price didn’t go much further from the 11th it hit that price there at 73,000 and then nothing much happened from that point you had the rollover you had three-day down rule you had Peak complacency here with a lot calling this the bottom and the market is going to hit well Bitcoin is going to hit 80,000 or 100,000 and it just didn’t happen so yeah personally from from my analysis It’s always important to remember how the market sentiment occurred at those times because you got the objective data here with the chart you’ve got your Gan swing indicator but when it comes to the market sentiment and the feeling and the headlines at the time it’s very hard to piece that together on top of a chart when you when you haven’t experienced it at the time you haven’t lived through these moves themselves so over the last one to two days that’s been a fair bit of fear that has come into Bitcoin and cryptos and Bitcoin again has just hit 50% $64,000 and closed above the uh major 50% of the correction uh above $65,000 so a test of this range and then a close above that range so still looking reasonably good little bit more volume coming into it at this stage so really nothing to be overly concerned about when it um when it comes to BTC the concerning Point could be if you get a breakdown of 60k plenty of uh bases formed there so a breakdown of 60k would be probably the concerning part back down to 56k for now I can’t see anything too concerning as the market is testing these levels and then closing uh above those how can it go further from this point that’s usually a big question that is asked I’m I’m focused on the psychology and that big question is often asked here look at this just as an example as I scroll through here I struggle with where the capital would come from whose money will push bitcoin’s bitcoin price up the econom is in really bad shape higher interest rates War glooming y y y so this is still a main feeling in the Market at least from what I can see of course and I don’t think that this is warranted at this stage of the cycle I suggest here in this post that we are in this disbelief stage again uh with we’ve had multiple moves to the upside for Bitcoin we’ve had the move out of the uh banking crisis low into this peak that was definitely some disbelief there how could how could the markets go up out of a banking crisis that should have collapsed the entire Market that’s over 12 months ago now most people probably don’t even remember that that level of fear that was spread throughout the markets and they all went up from that point a long way off another disbelief we had Bitcoin ETF top and then finally another disbelief Peak here which is Peak euphoria um ETF inflows are are massive the biggest that we’ve ever seen why isn’t the market going up from this point disbelief in my opinion so if that is disbelief then I think maybe we got this sort of stage to go at one point I was thinking maybe we’re in the Hope um wasn’t sure if we got to optimism yet but I thought we maybe could be in that sort of period but as we see the market correct Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies you really are seeing a lot of this comment here this rally will fail like others and that is the uh infighting between it’s a bare trap meaning that’s a trap there and we’re going to go higher and it’s over pack it up guys it’s over come back in four years the market will be ready to go by then so I think I feel as well as I think that we could be somewhere in this sort of disbelief correction lining up ready to go for this hope optimism belief thrill and mega mega Euphoria if in fact here is uh here is where we are in the final stage of the macro landscape the macro Financial landscape of the real estate cycle remember the most amount of money in the world is in land and then it spreads out over into your stock markets and commodities and you know flows down into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies which are very small comparatively speaking so that’s why this real estate and economic cycle is the most important to follow overall seems like we’re still in a healthy place for this cycle especially if Bitcoin continues to consolidate at these levels these levels being above that 60k and eventually I think we’ll get that uh pump out of these prices and I’ve talked about that in previous videos suggest subscribing to the channel like the content up so you can see more of this in your newsfeed and hopefully less of the the moonboy stuff and if you are interested check out the free crypto economic report that came out yesterday so if you are subscribed you should see that and we got the end of Year s starting in roughly 36 hours you’ll get those updates if you subscribe to this report plus you’ll also get access to our ultimate Traders accelerator once that is live to the public right now it’s live to Tia premium members and tia members uh so when that is public you’ll get access to it absolutely free join the crypto and economic report over there all right guys this is where we sit now with the ETF and that cont varing indicator there was a lot of hype around this time here in March now I’ve got a few dates that I want to have a look at on the chart and how it’s shown significant turns for cryptos and for altcoins and some lows as well so you got a few major dates here you got the 11th of January you’ve got another one here around the 13th of February you you have another one the 12th of March pretty similar dates every single month right the 11th 12th 13th here uh and then we had the um 4th of June which was another very significant move to the top and another date to remember here you’ve got the low May 9th so if you have a look at these on the chart they come up with some very interesting turns in the market the 11th Bitcoin ETF top so some of the biggest flows coming into the market something for the masses to get hyped up about actually corrected the market now it doesn’t mean that you have to get a collapse but you do see turns in the market that was your 11th of January now the next one up was in February it was around the 12th so it’s about this day here you saw another move one more day and then it paused the market so a little less than what you saw back here on the 11th of January but nonetheless there was still a pause in the market and in terms of how significant that move was was to get any sort of pause is a pretty big feat from the market so you’ve got a huge inflow day here on the 13th you’ve got the 13th of Feb right here and then you got one more big day up and then basically a pause for that many days 12 days so it doesn’t look like much there but you you can see what comes next and there’s a huge very very strong push to the upside probably by late retail coming in and so as I said to hold up the market in the midst of a pretty strong push is a pretty decent feat now you get towards the PE here Peak eup for of BTC and that next big inflow day here is 12th of March another day there 13th but we’re looking at the 12th here because it’s pretty much the biggest just beating the ETF release there on the um or the day after that on the 11th and you can see the 12th is right there basically it did not go any higher than that point so massive inflows crash the market or reverses the market gives us our 3-day down signal as we looked at here which then allowed us to look at the time frames going back through history when you see this 3-day down signal from very significant turns roughly 4 to 6 months underneath the top from where that signal occurred and here it is we’re at 97 days so getting very close to that four months I know I’ve talked about it a lot but I am looking at the macro cycle rather than look at the charts hourly or 4 hourly because that’s the short term I’m showing you the macro cycle here and how long these things do take to play out it’s hard to have that belief at that time as many of you know from the channel and suggest that maybe we’re not going to go up from here when the hissteria was ballistic like really ballistic and I I honestly hate those times because of the type of comments and stuff but at the end of the day I love helping as many people as possible and so I put that aside and hopefully you guys see how these signals continue to play out time and time again even though they take some time to um again play out in the markets Peak complacency followed etc etc so we’re at 97 days now we’ve got uh that was March let’s get into April and May so you got may as the low but more importantly I want to look at the tops first there’s June 4th and there is June 4th fourth highest ETF inflows June 4th bam Market stops dead $72,000 at the time you’re thinking all right well we’ got a little correction here it’s nothing to worry about 2% nothing to worry about another 3% and then you get the these last couple of days again not that big of a deal 0 2 and and only 2% and overall from the top to the lows only 11% but you guys know yourself that well this doesn’t really do us much help does it the fear and greed index we take a look at the other fear and greed index it’s come from the extreme greed through to Greed now into neutral and you I had some post up here on on X just looking at the overall fear of the market you can definitely see that it’s it’s increased a lot more than what this one is giving it credit for so overall 11% down for Bitcoin a lot more for different altcoins but again this damn ETF inflows is now after five months of data it’s showing for now to be a pretty decent leading indicator of peak fomo Peak fomo and there’s the first May Peak fear that is first of May right there so you got the low there a lot of people selling out Peak fear so again as I said in the intro this is probably why I would be St steering well clear of analysts your favorite YouTubers that present a lot of data and charts and all this stuff me too do your own research of course I’m just sharing with you what I see and I’ll be steering well clear of analysis looking at money flowing in and out or onchain analysis and if you to share that sort of stuff share this sort of stuff go ahead please do so hopefully it helps a few more people out so they don’t get wrecked at these Peaks where you it’s very easy to think oh there’s a lot more people coming into the market the ETFs won’t be wrong on this will they and well basically every single time it’s giving you some sort of indicator even if it’s a short-term one like February a major low so far in May 1st and that lower swing top again in June it showed up here on the chart and this sort of Correction at least it can help you position your portfolios a little safer and you can sleep a little better at night once you see these signals play up time and time again on the total cryptocurrency market cap how this turns crypto there is your first of May low move up there is your June 4th move down here is your Peak there on the 12th of May didn’t go much uh didn’t go much further correction and here are your other two here that’s the February one bit of a pause considering where it’s come from and the hype around ETFs at the time and then again uh 11th of January lower highs Market cracks into this bottom do I think it’s over yet no I’ve said that many times before I think we’re still in a stealth move strong cryptos are still holding up the charts relatively well above their 50% levels here is your eighth move over the last couple of days basically bounced off those two uh twice here at 50% at the moment and you still got the previous ranges that it could hold support at which we’ve talked about so there’s 3,200 bucks at the moment holding above 3,400 at that 50% level you’ve also got uh salana that we’ve looked at $137 got a bit of volume coming in bit of a move up there and still above these particular lows testing this 50% at 137 and a look at render now 750 where this thing could head to still just above this particular low and at the moment you’ve got your um support and resistance Zone back through3 to5 as well so keep an eye on these levels you got your 50% support and resistance zones do you buy the dip or do you buy the breakout as um we looked at in yesterday’s video as for Bitcoin still holding up pretty good and 50% levels still intact here remember the time frame 4 to 6 months keep that in mind that takes us out if we were to go all the way through to the 6 months you want your 180 days roughly around September so I’m looking somewhere in quarter 3 to give us an answer as to whether this is our reaccumulation or distribution which would mean a collapse I’m obviously leaning more on the side of reaccumulation at this Zone to break out over in quarter 3 end of the day Market will tell its story like subscribe to the channel and of course Link in the top of the video description to join our te IIA ultimate Trader accelerator and the sale that’s coming up at the end of this week thanks again for all of your support on the videos and I’ll be back with some more dad jokes in future content peace out

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🔴 Video Reference Twitter/X Tweet – Altcoin Leaders vs Laggards
https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/1795638943419105456/photo/1

Description:
A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold. The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.
*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, Economic Info, SP500, ATHs
07:20 Bitcoin & Crypto Leading Indicator, Part 1
12:20 Bitcoin & Crypto Leading Indicator, Part 2

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews