Bitcoin will have ‘pretty sharp rebound’ in the second half of the year, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

Bitcoin will have ‘pretty sharp rebound’ in the second half of the year, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

was Tom Lee fund stack Global advisor managing partner and the CNBC contributor but uh close enough for government work you’re right again and once again your rationale was born out it was that inflation would continue uh to cool it’s July 1st you have a new Target for the end of the year or or I’ve already sort of foreshadowed some of the things you were talking about the S&P earnings might even be above what you thought yes I I think that now that we’re at the midyear um 2025 earnings look a lot stronger than we thought at the start of the year we thought maybe 260 it’s probably closer to 275 maybe 280 even 285 and I think the multiple we thought originally could be 20 times that number for next year but given the FED has more reasons to be dovish and I think maybe the employment picture is softening PE multiples actually could be higher next year so I’d say between now and year end stocks should be higher I mean we’ve had a strong first half already and second half won’t be as strong as the first half but we should build be those gains so yeah it looks pretty good you have numbers I mean so if if the S&P is 285 you you possibly that’s earnings correct 285 up from 270 because the economy doesn’t cool multiples don’t expand in fact they might contract from 21 to 20 so if you multiply 20 times 285 you get to 5,800 yeah so that that sounds like it’ be S within reasonable as a reasonable base case that stocks don’t have to have a prodigious second half they just have to follow what typically happens in the second half especially in an election year so 5800 for the year what would that uh be the total return of it’s 15 now so little yes that’s you know it’s a little bit more than 20% Which would be after last year’s 24 24 that’s a couple years no one really expected I don’t think that that’s right I mean that’s painful for people who’ve been sitting in cash for two years earning 5% because they missed out on a 50% gain and that’s 10 years worth of sitting on cash so I think the end of this year is a little bit of a Day of Reckoning for those who said oh I’m I’m happy with my 6 trillion in cash earning 5% when in reality unless the economy is rolling into recession you know the expand should continue for some time is the Six Trillion and that that’s what’s fueling this the the additional liquidity people aren’t fully invested was that uh gotten through uh organic positive means or was it gotten through stimulus that shouldn’t have been probably legislated and and shouldn’t have been printed is it is it good money or is it money that comes home to Roose because it’s it’s too much I haven’t deconstruct constructed that but it it’s a valid point because you know we are running a pretty big fiscal deficit at a time when it’s not necessary um there is a lot of earned income on people’s assets I think that accounted for a lot of this increase in cash and historically that would have been invested reinvested in the economy or into equities but it’s been instead earning cash you know that my uh insecurity about crypto manifested itself again in my feet of clay because I said Tom Le is going to be absolutely right about the 5500 why is he still saying 150 for Bitcoin why do that why not just focus on stock don’t stick your neck out because it was falling below 60,000 now it’s back to almost 63,000 so that 6 trillion we just talked about that sort of plays into your Bitcoin thesis that’s right bitcoin’s probably suffering from the mount gaau you know starting distributions in July that was a huge overhang for many years but if I was invest in crypto knowing that one of the biggest overhangs is going to disappear in July I think it’s a reason to actually expect a pretty sharp Rebound in the second half so I think you know 150 is still within it’s already July 1st so that’s that’s so you’re not taking that off the table that’s still possibility that’s right and you know one thing to keep in mind Bitcoin makes most of its gains within with 10 days every year if you take out the 10 best days in a single year Bitcoin actually has negative returns

Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and head of research, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss markets, his bitcoin thesis, and more.