$15 Billion Into Ethereum? | Here Is Why You Should Invest In ETH Right Now!

$15 Billion Into Ethereum? | Here Is Why You Should Invest In ETH Right Now!

the market continues to dip in the summer doldrums but there are some huge Tailwinds coming for the crypto industry potentially none larger than the ethereum spot ETF starting to trade now we thought that would see those approvals yesterday that obviously didn’t happen we’ll dig into why that is and when we can expect to see them but I think maybe the biggest headline surrounding these ethereum spot ETFs was today’s guest Matt Hogan saying he expected potentially 15 billion to come into those in the first 18 months we’ll dig into how he got that number and why he expects that and what that means for the industry Matt and I will probably dig into a lot of other things you never know where the conversation’s going to go always one of my favorite guests can’t wait to get this going and of course Texas West capital on the back half let’s go let’s [Music] let what is up everybody I’m Scott mker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button you can hit the dislike button for the market but don’t dislike me it’s not my fault I know you guys blame YouTubers and anyone who has an opinion when the market goes down we’re just people and we’re just here too trying to figure it all out and when I want to figure it all out I bring on people a lot smarter than me Matt that’s you good morning how are you doing well Scott thanks for having me on yeah man you made some uh some nice waves you know everybody loves a big number uh a big prediction we all love uh pining over inflows and outflows which now seem to change every day it’s become almost irrelevant to talk about them but here we go there you are ethereum spot ETFs to attract 15 billion of net inflows in first 18 months investors are likely to allocate funds to ETFs in proportion to the relative market cap of Bitcoin and ether the report says feels like a big number but when you put it at 18 months with the expectation that we’re going into a bull market and based on I think how wildly Bitcoin spot ETFs outperformed expectations this doesn’t actually seem as hyperbolic as people may have thought I agree with that I think it’s perfectly rational almost down the middle you know that the I wrote it for two reasons one was that people weren’t excited about these ethereum etps I don’t know what it was but I kept hearing people put out random numbers on the internet like they’re going to be failures or they’re not going to attract assets and when you look around the world Scott if you look at Europe if you look at Canada those ETP markets if you look at uh coinbase if you look at binance everywhere that investors have the chance to invest in ethereum they do and I just didn’t understand why that wouldn’t be the case here the other reason I wrote it I was having a conversation with the the head of a 100 plus billion dollar advisory firm and he had been reluctant to allow his advisers to invest in Bitcoin because it’s only one asset and he wants to diversify he said as soon as there’s an eth ETP they’ll put them together and then they’ll feel comfortable investing in that and it just struck me that sort of the default position should be of course these things are going to be successful of course they’re going to be successful out at the proportion of Bitcoin and E in the market and then I looked at a bunch of data and sure enough that’s exactly what came back so I think it’s a down the-middle prediction we could be higher we could be a little lower but I think 15 billion is in the bag so this is based on sort of that 23 to 27% Al allocation to ethereum vers Bitcoin a very conservative number and as you said if you look at where these are trading where you have both Bitcoin eth and foreign markets within that sort of you know 10 % range of 20 to 30ish 17 to 27 whatever it is it yeah it’s almost it’s almost perfect if you look in Europe uh Eeps are 23% of the Bitcoin eth Market if you look in Canada they’re 22% if you look at market caps it’s 26% right this is just this is where eth is and we should expect these these etps to be successful that’s what I hear from advisers every day they’re looking forward to it interestingly if you look at past Cycles you sort of get the huge Bitcoin move and then the ethereum move after so if we actually mimic that it should end up being a lot higher at least for a point in the cycle then maybe it re balances so but I think I think it’ll be higher to be quite Frank I think you might be right I think that these numbers Overlook that fact that we’re entering what is usually the eth cycle they also Overlook sort of two huge Tailwinds that I see for eth which is it had a lot of regulatory uncertainty and over the last two months a lot of that has gone away not only did we get these sort of movement forward on EFTPS but we also saw Washington generally change its tune on crypto that’s a massive Tailwind for eth um and then you have the after effects of the denune upgrade which I don’t think the market has fully recognized what that will mean for this market like we forgot it happened and you put those together with an ETP I agree these could be conservative it could be much more I mean think the arguments against it are probably from either hardcore bitcoiners or people outside of the crypto industry who just don’t really understand they point to the fact that Holy wow it’s been such a process just to educate raas and institutions on bitcoin and we got this sort of like firing squad approval of the ethereum spotf so nobody was ahead of it you guys have had a few great ads since then um and there’s be this educational curve but I think that that those aren’t the people that are buying it initially anyways I think it’s the as you said like it’s being bought up in these other places with that same educational challenge uh relative to the market so I think actually that’s a argument that these could catch up and and do a greater proportion in a year or in six months I think that’s right you know spot ETFs like these raas bringing that online makes that process easier for eth because they’ve already taken the big jump right that that’s exactly what I was going to say we’ve been going through this due diligence process where these committees have to evaluate custodians and liquidity partners and they have to make sure These funds actually work and they’ve done that work for Bitcoin they’re getting to the end of it eth is going to run you know 80% faster than that through the due diligence committees and so you know I I I think again I could be on the conservative side um I think it could potentially be higher than what I was talking about so Bitcoin and ether great but when you look at the way most people invest and the way that markets work at this point you have very few people who are out there buying and selling individual stocks and trying to make picks the way that the bulk of people For Better or For Worse invest at this point to my understanding is index funds right you have a professional an institution a black rock puts together a fund you passively add your money to it they passively invest in the assets to rebalance and that’s how you basically manage your portfolio and try to beat the market I have to imagine that now that we have Bitcoin and eth more exciting than future ETFs which we can get into for individuals is now going to be the ability to do a top 10 by market cap index or a defi index or a metaverse index because that’s what’s going to make sense I would say to traditional investors broader exposure to the crypto industry without having to understand it or make picks I don’t understand te AI at a deep level but you know we all are exposed to it it’s always the mo It’s the funniest thing to me there’s a few narratives that make me laugh by the way one is that like black rock owns all the Bitcoin miners as if Black Rock made a decision that that’s the business they want to be in no they have index funds and they have to passively buy those to rebalance so they own them right or people who hate Mark Zuckerberg and Elon mus say I would never own Twitter or metastock and don’t realize that they probably own like 10 or 20% of their portfolio is in these stocks because of the funds they’re passively investing you yes that’s exactly right I mean that’s how people invest they buy baskets they don’t buy single stocks uh you know you get fired on Wall Street mostly if you buy a single stock because there’s too much risk what if you’re wrong and I think that’s going to be true in crypto you know the reason I joined bitwise seven years ago was it was the first crypto Index Fund provider ultimately I think the largest funds in this market are going to be index funds what’s the largest ETF it’s the S&P 500 ETF why because that’s the easy button for investing an index fund will be the easy button for investing in crypto and we’re getting pretty close to that so it’s coming yeah and it also adds another possibility which you had floated Jeff obviously who a one of your researchers I believe who we have on Spaces quite often since my my colleague Matt Hogan writes an excellent weekly memo where he recently advocated for the consideration of eth as a technology investment akin to high growth Tech players like Nvidia and Facebook meta this was the very last sentence of the memo what does that actually look like and this is the answer right we don’t just need indexes within crypto you’re talking about indexing eth with other Tech plays maybe someone needs to launch a new ETF that’s 10% eth and 90% tech stocks as a starting point for the future of technology you could do a lot worse and he actually I mean he digs into it for anyone who wants to read the thread of what it would do for your sharp ratio Etc spoiler every time you add one of these crypto things to a traditional portfolio and increases your sharp ratio that is the spoiler yes you could assume that but I think it makes a really important point which is you know most investors just want to own Tech and 99% of investors are missing part of tech the default starting point the position that everyone should start with is a combination of tech stocks and crypto assets that’s the technology space today it’s not just tech stocks if you only own tech stocks you’re missing an important part of the fastest growing corner of technology so the default position should be like I said 90% Q’s 10% eth and then away you go and if you want to overweight crypto great if you want to underweight crypto great but if you don’t have crypto you’re you’re missing a big chunk of the market it would be like owning the market but not owning Nvidia right and no one would want to do that today so I do think that’s going to evolve as a narrative on Wall Street and this will be a normalized part of portfolios I’m literally reading this right now and it’s so compelling when you look at it right when you can look at this is you know one year three years since 21 but that green one by the way is that 9010 if you’ve added eth this is what would have happened over any of these periods it’s very clear that you would have done better than just simply investing in tech stocks right you look at the simplified sharp ratio goes from 0 61 6384 for those you don’t know you want a higher sharp ratio which usually means having to have some sort of uncorrelated or idiosyncratic asset in there that even can go down when other things go up that’s what people don’t realize that’s still a good thing you just want it to not do the same thing and then you look at the correlations here as he said which I point out all the time and people scream at me we are not correlated to other markets it’s just not it’s not right yes I I don’t it’s so shocking to me that that narrative that we highly correlated persists we were correlated for 5% of crypto’s history and that was when you know the FED did historic adjustments of interest rates and the largest QE ever of course everything was correlated for a few months 95% of the time were not correlated so when you add it to a portfolio and rebalance you get the free lunch you get higher risk adjusted returns higher returns and the same or lower volatility um you know people are entitled to their opinion but not their own facts and they’re just ignoring the facts here uh you obviously don’t live in America I should get used to it we’re we’re going into an election cycle Everyone’s entitled to their own facts that’s true we’re Ops as fact I should say so I I think it’s worth discussing now obviously then when are we going to get these ethereum spot ETFs right because this is all great in theory but uh it’s July 3 and it didn’t happen man right we were supposed to We were supposed to have these trading yesterday e ether ETF hopefuls gear up for approval as soon as mid July kicking that can slightly down the road here right yeah I you know Eric and James over at Bloomberg put out that toid of July 2nd I think they forgot that rith is a nice Beach and you know SEC staffers like to take their vacation just like everyone else you know um I mean I’m I’m happy we’re not launching today it’s a half day on the market it would have been a mess um it would have been a mess we’re much better off launching next week or the week that follows and that’s where most people think we’re lining up I’ve seen reports in the media obviously I can’t talk about our own filing but reports in the media about the next wave of filing being due July 8th my birthday it’s a beautiful day and um you know let let’s hope that it happens shortly but I think we’re better off with not this week it’s uh it’s we’re going to get there we’re just not there quite yet it’s a relevant right I mean we didn’t it’s not like we saw any meaningful price action on the Rejection it kind of came and went I don’t even think most people are so on top of it that they were necessarily sitting at their computer waiting for that launch button right to I I just it not like Bitcoin you know Bitcoin it was like there was a date and the entire world was hoping and we had you know 400 filers uh trying to get there you know it’s it’s different this time even so I mean I guess we need to wait for these S1 so so let’s say that the s1’s get approved that’s what we’re waiting for right now right we’ve gotten the 19 b4s we’re waiting for that S1 how long do you think we see between the S1 approval and the actual trading day so so I think what I would watch a as an outside Observer is there’s going to be a new round of filings next week is what the media is reporting do those filings have expense ratios the issuers aren’t going to show their hand on their expense ratio until they need to put the final filing in that’s what we saw on bitcoin and that’s just what sort of competitive Theory would tell you we’ll wait to the last moment the day you see a filing where everyone has their expense ratio you can expect it to Launch either one or two days after that so on Monday if they’re new filings do they have the expense ratios that’ll be the bat signal on whether it’s go time or whether there’s one more rev and uh once you see those those expenses then you know it’s it’s coming in a day or two yeah that that makes sense so it’s it’s gonna happen I don’t think it matters and it hasn’t yet but there were a few things we saw in the leadup to the Bitcoin spot ETFs that we haven’t really been seeing here yet so you got have done your advertising campaign you’re starting which are amazing by the way I should be playing them I don’t have the clips maybe Misha can get them but you guys should go look up the commercials that bitwise has been doing which feature like this old man in bed it’s amazing but anyways we haven’t seen that from 10 filers right we haven’t seen this sort of mass advertising wave and we haven’t even heard much about the fears which was a huge thing in advance of the Bitcoin spot ETFs launching we’ve seen vanck obviously say they’re going to do no fees Matt uh and Matt seagull actually came on last week and made an interesting case he’s like we’re just going to buy a bunch of ethereum basically and it’s going to make it all go up so that’s how we’re going to make our money um for in layman’s terms you know but uh you know why haven’t we seen sort of all those things happening here yeah I mean there you know our ads are about ethereum broadly not specifically about the ETF I’m I’m requ you can’t yet and we saw that last time too it’s like we saw the first wave of ads was this is what Bitcoin is is why I should have it it didn’t say five bit Mars right that’s right I think the short answer to that is that this was a surprise right you have to be able to move extraordinarily fast to go from uh not expecting these ETFs to launch to being fully revved up and ready to go in just a few weeks even for a startup like bitwise the processes and compliance and things to get things like uh materials ready and you know maybe marketing ready uh this is a very tight timeline for a startup and when you go to a large company I think it’s just hard to make those Wheels turn that quickly you have to remember like agency they got to approve the budget they gotta go the 17 iterations the team has to come in and present on the poster boards there a lot of it’s a lot it’s a lot the struggle is real um you know a month and a half ago no one thought this was happening right the the odds were were extremely low and I think most issuers had sort of assumed this was an end of year maybe post elction and I think it’s just a you know you got to get the engines turning they’ll they they’ll turn over you’ll probably see a big push in the fall um but I think that’s the that’s the answer it’s just it’s it’s hard to be that fast you know bitwise is pretty fast and it was hard for us to be this fast yeah that that makes sense you guys just basically are uh the most Nimble uh yeah black Rock’s gonna take a little while to get their their ads approved if if they’re coming right that’s right um listen so we get the eum spot ETFs in the coming weeks I think there’s pretty good consensus about that and it has everybody inevitably asking what’s next we talked about index funds and such but you know vanac and now 21 shares filing for salana uh ETFs I have my doubts that that’s going to be a thing anytime soon certainly under this regime but we know that things can change relatively fast but now of course it has people going further down the curve trying to speculate what we could get I think an xrp product launched in Europe two days ago something I I of saw it in passing um I asked Austin from allcoin daily this yesterday on the street and he pointed to this which I had totally missed by the way so I reported at some point passively that coinbase had gotten approval basically to have cftc regulated Futures products well big news that was they have a couple I don’t know if they’re popular but these were the next five that they’re doing for these which made Austin say these could be the next five ETFs because they would have a Futures Market to look at this is not a CME Futures Market I’m not saying that’s true avax link. xlm and shib that’s like uh I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with those tokens to all the passionate communities out there but that’s like they had a couple drinks pinned some names up on a dartboard closed their eyes turned around backwards and just threw for it where do we get these names shib a shib ETF what oh man I don’t I don’t uh I it’s an odd selection I wouldn’t be holding out hope for shib ETF this cycle I don’t think anyone is I don’t think anyone is I don’t think I don’t think anyone wants to buy shib in an ETF format uh anyway you know yeah mostly at Bitcoin and ether 70% of the market that’s a great starting point if you look internationally there are ETFs on other assets and I think we’ll get them here in the West Post election if there’s a change at the SEC I think that will open the doors maybe two years from now or a year from now we’ll have a broad Ray of ETFs but for right now it’s going to be Bitcoin and eth all these other markets even if the argument from altcoin daily is right that these are regulated Futures markets you still need to let them cook for a while and build up a data stream that you can compare against the spot price to see the correlations that that process alone takes you know a couple years years so years it’s nice to look forward but I’m really excited for Bitcoin and eath 70% of the market that’s a good chunk it’s a great starting point and the people who buy those in ETF format they may go and buy other crypto assets directly um I think we could see that that that that’s my thinking there has to be some breaking line where you go from mainstream interest to and this is not a negative where you go from What’s main interesting to mainstream to what’s like your dgen or your crypto native enough or you have enough understanding of the market that you’re just going to go buy it on coinbase or metamask or however further you go down it just feels like the people who would be interested in shib are already pretty much through the through the front door they are through the front door or issuers like bitw you know we have institutional funds that cover defi indexes or nft indexes right you can get those sorts of things but in an ETF wrapper that’s available to my father um maybe we don’t need a shib ETF quite yet so one of the narrative we obviously discussed was the political winds shifting I I think that’s like maybe bigger than even having had ETF approvals right because I think that regardless of who wins I’m not going to say one is not better than the other but regardless of who who wins the situation is a hell of a lot better than we would have ever imagined two months six months or 12 months ago because I believe now there’s a sentiment that it’s very politically unpopular to be outright against this industry so even if the rhetoric dampens I’m not saying that would be the best case scenario it would be good but now we even have this obvious problem I hate to go too deeply into politics but poly Market obviously is a Crypton native uh predictive markets platform I mean we’re seeing that kamla Harris would pull better against Trump but we’re seeing people with their actual money and this is what’s interesting to me this is the sharps this is the people who are willing to take their money and put it down they may be more crypto native so it could be skewed saying they think that Biden’s out right so I mean does it mean anything to you if it’s a different Democratic candidate for our industry I’m not making political predictions here necessarily but do we know anything about any of the other people and their position or is this more like it’s a party position on the industry well you know my take on it generally is that we are at a low point from sort of the regulatory infrastructure around crypto in terms of the the cftc or the OCC or name your multiletter agency right they are they are generally led by people who are hostile to crypto and therefore in a respect any change at the top of the ticket is likely to produce a good outcome because it could shake things up at that regulatory layer and because we’ve seen Democrats become more neutral on crypto from overtly hostile we’ve seen sort of the worn wi fade from prominence um as long as that Trend stays intact I think change is better than no change right I I think I think I think it’s moving in the right direction so if there’s a reason for there to be turnover at those agencies I think it’s positive look I think the the changing tenor in Washington is probably a bigger deal than the ETFs I think if people understood it crypto would already be at all-time highs I’ve been very frustrated over the last few months you know we have thousands of meetings with advisers trying to explain to them how Washington has changed and it’s just hard to get across the scale of that difference unless you’re inside this industry but boy I think it’s going to be a massive Tailwind over the next 12 months why would you know right it makes sense first of all it’s like an aircraft carrier takes a long time to to turn right but we’ve seen years and years and years of conditioning that Bitcoin is bad anti- crypto Army boil the oceans right you don’t see stories saying Bitcoin no longer boiling oceans right so it’s so even if it’s just a thawing the mainstream isn’t seeing news about those things going away they just conditioned by the news that they’ve seen in the past maybe because Trump is speaking so favorably about it some people are noticing as a political issue but I don’t think so I think your mainstream still has only seen the big stories about the negatives uh politically so they’re just going to assume that’s the case we all assume that the last thing we read is what’s presently accurate I think that’s totally right like what if I were to tell you Scott that Washington is really changed its tune on Gene editing and I’m really bullish on yeah I mean it’s a huge like of course you would have no idea you’d be like Matt what are you talking about what do they even think what are we talk and that’s what I think if you’re outside of crypto is the view like yeah go ahead you’ve been telling me this story for a while I don’t believe you but it really has fundamentally shifted and I think we’re going to feel feel that in just absolutely massive ways uh over the next 12 months you know it would be a really fun show to do like even it’s once a month like either like Normie where we maybe we get together and we do some of your ra pitches like live on camera we get some very friendly ones and we let them ask the questions and we could see in person just like where theal curve is landing it could literally just be like guy on the street interviews but it’ be really fun to have some larger raas maybe who want a little attention and we we tell them we’ll treat them with the kid gloves and we come on and we listen to your pitch or at least listen to their questions and see where this thing is really at we should do that yeah we’ll make it I don’t know if you guys would like it seven people or 7,000 would show up I have no idea but um I think it’s been very like my my e ethos with the chano has always been like how do I talk to mainstream and mainstream adoption and get the new people and I don’t really need to talk to the people that are like trading memes and get it right M but the reality is those people aren’t just coming and watching YouTube channels unless we go out to them they’re not going to find us we need to go find them right like that yeah at least they can all read your memo we’re trying we’re trying to get out there we’re doing our part U but that’ll be fun we should make that happen yeah before I let you go can you tell people uh where they can read that and find that it used to be kind of it wasn’t behind a pay wall but it was behind uh signin right Bally log in you made it completely free and accessible and it really is guys it’s the best I think appraisal of where we’re at thinkpiece uh every week because it’s based on but it’s based on what you guys are seeing on the ground and the questions that people are asking yeah that’s right we have a unique thing we do 20,000 meetings with professional investors a year so I digest what we’re hearing there and what I see in the market every week yeah if you just go to bitwise Investments and click on the Insight tab you can find it it’s the bitwise CIO memo you can probably just Google it and get there um and I always promise it’s short it’s you know five 700 words um so I don’t try to overwhelm you but yeah we’d love to have you subscribe or or just view it I’m Lu I’m I’m trying to open it now but I’m moving too slowly through the disclosures insights right here you guys can see it’s in the insights you know we’ll we’ll we’ll put up a link on Twitter um yeah it it’s amazing guys I mean I’ve dug very very deep into this entire portal obviously because I had access before you made a lot of it public when we talked if ever you were just to point someone to like really basic amazing knowledge on things they need to know you guys have done an incredible job there so I appreciate it and guys you can follow Matt down in the uh description obviously um I love seeing by the way since these ETFs have uh launched how big you individually but bitwise have sort of become in the community and I think it was actually really inspiring and encouraging to see that people understood who had been here from the beginning and who could speak about this in a way that everyone would understand and who maybe were just the big institutions which is fine trying to capitalize but you guys really managed to differentiate yourselves as the opinion leaders for what’s actually happening with the ETFs I appreciate that we’ve been trying and it’s been great to see the community rally behind us we we appreciate it yeah and we appreciate that you’re always willing to take the time to come on the shows Matt thank you guys everybody following please do go check out those memos on on bitwise thanks Matt I wish we had another hour thanks Scott I’ll see you again soon have a good one all right guys as we uh move on I’m going to bring on Chris in one second I want to remind you that down in the description as well is a link to the round table um I’ve been doing all that you guys probably have not noticed but you know I told you about the round table which is a platform that basically ideas that we can interact with you guys without all the Bots that are in YouTube and Twitter it’s not its own social media platform it’s very curated content where we can actually talk to our audiences if you want to ask questions I do make a point to go there and interact there’s a link down in the description it’s literally just a comment link um but as a part of that the one of the things that we own I’m a I’m a I’m a partner in in the round table is the is the street actually so if you got which is the publication that ironically Jim Kramer started years ago but there over 30 million investors Boomer investors with huge portfolios read the street and to the point that Matt and I were just discussing the reason I decid to do this and to work with them and to do things for the street which I don’t need that headache to be honest is because we can actually reach mainstream investors and so I’ve been doing like six seven eight nine short interviews a week um on the street uh which is kind of awesome like you know it’s like a CNBC Fox Business equivalent I show up I’m the an and I I ask people questions we do three four minute interviews they’re not tagged anywhere like really on by YouTube or anything so you guys probably don’t see them it just occurred to me but um the goal there is that we bring crypto to like the Fox Business and CNBC and MSNBC type audience because those are the people that are reading the street and seeing these interviews so it’s been a major uh hurdle stepping up my game to get to that adding that into my flow I mean I’m doing these things every single day in between spaces YouTube but um I think it’s really important like that really is the the purpose of this channel you’ll notice like you guys are not I’m guessing there’s some of you but you guys are not a bunch of like 17 21 26 year olds who are flipping meme coins like the when I meet people who listen to the channel when I go places it’s always guys like me and gals like me a lot of women here too uh you know people who are in their 40s and have established themselves to some degree and are looking for more information and that’s the audience we want to talk to I’m not trying to like out compete with uh other channels that are you know and there’s nothing wrong with them it’s great but this channel is not as much for the people who are super down the rabbit hole it’s for the people who want the news and for us to find ways to bring in new people and I think working with the street is one huge accsess but go down and click and we can inter interact on the round table I got Chris here and that I know we got fibos Swani here yuck he’s always here if you’re here yeah what’s going on man well we’re dead well you know again it seems like we say this every few weeks you know we’re dead again for the you know the 5,769 th000 time or something if I recall but whatever yeah yeah but you know again you know it’s the same thing we talk about week after week we’re still range bound uh people still losing their mind uh you know the longer you go range bound uh the more people question their their because you know they got in thinking it was going to continue going up immediately and so the longer you go sideways within a range you know the the more they’re going to think well geez may maybe I bought the top again um you know the Bears are very loud out there right now and uh you know it’s just part for the course right it’s just what we go through um we just waiting for here are at the range lows I mean can I show you something that might appe to you before we get started I’ve been talking about for a while we hit RSI hit oversold the daily for the first time since last August which by the way was at like 266,000 you taught me that RSI will inevitably make the trip from overbought to oversold yeah right so when we were in here I kept saying man there’s a lot of things here that look like Bottoms but we got to get to oversold soon eventually right before I think we really head up well now it looks like you never know how far price could go but odds are I would say 90% plus chance if we get a close Below 6,293 on binance I think it’s 6,300 on base we will probably get massive bullish Divergence here coming out of oversold RSI right I mean we would have to have RSI to a close below 25.53 that would be a hell we’d be in the 40s I think we’d be in the 40, thousands to get there which could happen I’m not saying anything can happen but any close below this we gotta be starting to look for a bottom here yeah yeah and I you know and I think that’s uh I think it’s probably what we’re looking for anyway you know we do have that um uh what do we have that that hidden bullish Divergence uh back here from the last time we popped down low to that previous uh swing low right here so we had that hidden bullish Divergence already we’ve popped up now here’s my thing we’re three waves up um so generally we kind of look at that as okay three waves up and we’ve dropped back down below the second wave right we go ABC here so your first thought is okay this is corrective and we’re going down lower so if we’re going down lower then based on the height of this here uh we got a Target down here around on this is the bitco Bitcoin alltime index chart here uh but that’s a 55 470 Target um as you can see of course I’ve extended my range you remember I had it lower here thinking maybe this might have been the spring here but you know again we we didn’t stay in the top half of the range we broke down which suggested that the range was still playing out volume continues to be low um you know again everybody’s talking about distribution but one of the things we look for is um you know are you getting a lot of volume at the top of the range and as you can see we’re really not volume very very low up here at the top of the range and then beyond that are you then seeing volume expansion as you’re going down you know because what that tells you is you’ve got more and more sellers jumping on board more conviction in the short right we don’t see that um so you know everybody out there has their reasons for why it has to be a top for me volume and price action does not at this point suggest that is what’s going on doesn’t mean things can change but generally speaking those are the two big things we look for and we’re not seeing them so uh for me I continue to look here and so if we break down uh if we do get make us a new low here you know based again on the height here I think we could potentially see what would end up being a spring here so just a dip below on The Daily here below that range support and then close back up above it but we may not even get there we’ve got the S1 pivot right here um so we may stop there or again the daily candle could uh have a you know it could Wick down into this area then come back up and close back above it you’ll notice there is a fair value Gap here um and so you know we often look toward those as areas of support or resistance um so there’s a lot of things that kind of align in here for what we do it but here’s the interesting thing if we jump into the 4 Hour we we came back and pulled back right to the S1 pivot on the 4 Hour here we swept this liquidity right here around 59972 nice long lower Wick we’ve got good volume on that and here we are trying to Rally up so again generally speaking three waves we usually expect it to be corrective however there is the possibility this could potentially be um a one with three waves down and then one two one two three four five so three waves up and then five ways back down that just gives us a big expanded flat so you get a wave one you get a wave two and that would give us a Target up here around the R2 pivot on the hourly at about 66 426 so what am I looking for I’m looking for an impulsive breakout and close Above This hourly pivot area here um impulsive what do I mean I mean a larger candle spread like this the candle body and a spike of volume that’s what I’m looking for to come through this and to close above it um and in that case I will be looking this as likely a one and a two is a flat and then a three headed up here you know that’s gonna that’s going to freak people out people are really bearish um they really thinking it has to go down lower but as you notice where are we getting caught here on the daily the same place right the same point here where we’ve been holding support and recently here the the last couple of times it’s kind of hit this area Wick down below but closing back above it so um still watching this play out we do have the possibility it could come down a bit lower here but nothing actually in the price action of volume suggesting that this is distribution right now so um you know until that actually shows up I don’t have a reason to be like oh my God it’s the end of the world it’s the tops in and whatever um so that’s kind of where I’m at with Bitcoin you mean you’re not horribly bearish at support about it but no no yeah get getting slaughtered online you know because I’m not overly bearish but uh you know again when I when I speak online generally I speak in more macro terms I speak on The Daily or the weekly time frames um a lot of people are addicted to the 15minute time frame so anytime it moves there opposite of what you’re thinking oh my God you’re so wrong right but you know people need to pay attention to the time frames and the charts um that are being spoken about uh because you know it doesn’t make any sense right who cares what’s happening on the hourly if it’s not affecting really the daily at the end of the day it’s a short week we’ve got and I think a lot of people missed this point right so we’ve got uh our July 4th holiday tomorrow which affected ly gives trafi two Fridays this week I’ve been saying this a lot um and anybody that knows the trfi world knows that on Fridays anyway it’s generally slow there’s not a lot of volume people have checked out either physically or mentally already for the weekend um and so what do we have this week we have that happening on Friday of course but we have it happening today as well because tomorrow’s a holiday which gave us really just two trading days more or less which was Monday and Tuesday so I was talking about you know the fact we’d have Life Volume coming this week across the market Market which is what it’s been and that does include crypto you know whether people want to you know accept it or like it or not the fact is trafi is really involved in crypto and uh you know there a lot of volume that comes from them and if they’re if they’re enjoying the beach uh as as Matt was talking about there you know if they’re enjoying the beach they’re not you’re not going to get a whole lot of volume out of here which means you might get a bit more movement because there isn’t all that volume to to come in and counteract whatever is going on somebody might try take advantage of it but um for right now that’s kind of where we’re sitting so um that’s where we’re at there alts kind of taken a little of a little bit of a a hit today I’m see I’m seeing a lot of nobody wants to hear it I saw I said it yesterday and then it went down a little more but I’m seeing a lot of oversold conditions on alts finally too after a very long time and a lot of potential bullish Divergence yeah those weeklys continue to look great I’ve been talking about the last few weeks here um you know it’s not an instant backup right but it’s a it’s a process and um I I think they’re all generally looking pretty well we talked about the um the altcoin market cap chart the altcoin doin chart uh and how we were getting a bounce off the S1 pivot on the weekly there um and so it does look like they’ve probably botom or like I said at the time or very likely so and so it just kind of takes a bit to kind of work its way through you know the daily and then the hourly and all that uh market closed Friday no I see somebody just asking that real quick no markets closed tomorrow yeah Market’s open you get a half day today and you get Friday but not Thursday hence the two Fridays basically yeah yeah and jobs date on Friday as well yeah which was really interesting um so if we look here at render on The Daily uh you know we had a nice rally off the swing low here back up up into you know again really once you learn how to rechart really makes a lot of sense where we’re kind of getting that you know that move right right to that previous resistance there um and we’ve got a pullback here now what I’m looking for is one of two things if we break down lower here I’m looking to get maybe a wick down into the S1 pivot here on the daily which is right around $592 that’d be a nice tip I would love to see that but if not if not and we break out again impulsively with the with a close above the this daily pivot here right around what is that right around $8.40 um I’m going to take that as a long and look for it to Rally back up into the top of the range here and likely break bre out higher so that’s just kind of what I’m looking at here either break down through the swing low break down or break out above and impulsive breakout andove and close above the pivot there to kind of tell us either S1 pivot or top of the range up here and then further out so not a bad looking chart there I would would love to get that move down there though seriously it would be um yeah it’s also kind of aligns with that huge wick on the left yeah exactly exactly yeah uh I’ve got a ton here here we’ve got this interesting support going on uh if we lose this support and you know we close below this pivot here uh we should be looking right around that S1 pivot on the on this daily here right around $652 that would be where I would be looking uh to look for a reversal off there if we can get a reversal off there and break back out above the pivot then we’re likely headed up um and at that point I would look at least at the R3 pivot here $10.61 but based us just going through this probably even up here secondary Target up here around $12.90 at the R5 pivot here on the daily uh but yeah I mean you know basically you’ve got all this consolidation up here toward this you know this kind of resistance area we’re trying to push through so I could see a bit of a pullback but um if we do if we do break out higher again still kind of continuing to look up there toward that R3 pivot either way but I I don’t know I’m looking here just waiting to see if we do get that breakdown and close below the pivot to maybe get a move to the S1 kind of like on render and get the be able to get a buy for rally yeah yeah uh let me see here maker Maker’s got an interesting looking wedge here descending wedge I’m not a big as you know I’m not a big fan when price action doesn’t flow strongly between you know resistance and support it’s just kind of hovering here around the middle of the wedge so I’m a bit cautious about it but that being said um I’m looking for an impulsive breakout Above This descending resistance impulsive breakout and close if we can get that uh initially looking for a Target up here around 3166 or so uh and then looking for it to continue up here toward 37 oops 3749 or so right up there um as we get it so that that’s what I’m waiting for on that as far as maker goes we’ll see if we get it again if it’s pulling down further you know the S1 pivot provides that support area we’ll look and see if we can get a rally off that and a move back up uh we got we got Pepe because everybody’s still like right uh Pepe Pepe is looking quite um give us a bigger zoom in yeah yeah thanks yeah um it’s it’s looking pretty uh pretty all right at the moment here we’re getting this move down we’ve got these kind of Wicks down here into this fair value Gap that we had um I could potentially see it coming down here again to the S1 pip you see this kind of thing going on this this narrative through all of them uh that would be down there around 9177 I could potentially see that but what I like about this one the other ones the uh Stoke RSI on The Daily was you know was up here and overbought this one we about to hit oversold and RSI is about to hit oversold so I could definitely see this coming down here toward the S1 pivot and if it does I would be paying attention looking for um some kind of setup that happens off there a reason to go long But ultimately looking for the breakout and you know impulsive breakout and close above that descending resistance if we do that uh we should be good to go just based off the height right here uh we should be up there at least around 2452 if we’re pulling down a little bit further it’ll pull that Target up a bit more but yeah um if we can get that impulsive breakout and close above that descending resistance I’ll be looking up there toward that R5 R4 pivot area so the me people would go nuts the me people would lose their minds I don’t know does anybody even get excited about Pepe anymore it seems like they threw him out with the yesterday’s garbage you know I mean they were so excited take much short time take much uh he doesn’t have a hat he’s not bonking around I guess so people are like uh let me see here we got AR here we got a nice range forming um again you know same thing we’re kind of sitting here between that daily pivot and S1 uh again like the other ones showing you we did have you know we are overbought here on the Stoke RSI um so what I’m looking for is if we can get that again impulsive breakout and close above the pivot initial Target is the top of the range so that should be you know that’s right there around oh what is that right there around 3265 or so and that’ll give us a Target up here I’d probably yeah I put right there around $47.40 um and if we do hit that by the way the odds are we’re going to break out and head higher um yeah so I’ll just leave it at that right now that’d be the local kind of Target area I’d be looking at on that but if it does break down again I could see a move down here to that S1 pivot there’s a nice low volume node area you can see again uh being this um fair value Gap here S1 pivot I mean it’s a great setup once again would love to actually buy it here um at that what is that $842 area um and then you know look for that nice move and rally higher but that would give us basically a spring below this this trading range here to send us up let me see here and finally I’ve got TRX usdt um for anybody that’s still trading this um again we’ve got this ascending support coming up we’ve rallied up into the R1 pivot as we’re coming in sideways here so if we can get a rejection and it close below that below this support I would look for it to pull back to the pivot which is right around around where is that 12 cents or so and I’d look for it to reverse off that and head on up toward the top of the range here uh and immediate Target right there around $14 I’m sorry 14 cents 14.2 cents but again once you’re getting up there the odds are uh that you’re going to break out higher overall and continue up so I’m just looking for that breakdown here but I’m not interested in shorting I don’t don’t do a lot of that you know especially in the bull market I would be looking to long on that um around that pivot area to get it going there so um again you know alts right now weekly look great uh dailies look like they may need a little bit of a pullback a little bit further pullback most of them um but at the end of the day looking looking pretty decent I think you know as we continue to talk about so yeah like it I like it lines with what I’m thinking I mean just at the bottom of the range it sucks okay whatever well but you know and everybody gets bearish down there and then uh you know price ends up going up and then they’re all upset that they didn’t actually get in when it was down there and you know it’s RSE and repeat yep every single time well I guess we’ll see uh see what happens this time guys follow TX West capital on X check out all his channels and shows of course as well and his group because you can actually learn a lot and thank you so much Chris appreciate it man guys uh we will not see you for the next couple days because of the holiday but uh this afternoon I think Wick will be here so we should have that uh but I’ll keep you updated maybe we’ll do one or two this week we’ll see all right guys thank you very much Chris thanks see you guys soon bye [Music]

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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.