Bitcoin jumps back above $63,000 to kick off second half of 2024: CNBC Crypto World

Bitcoin jumps back above $63,000 to kick off second half of 2024: CNBC Crypto World

today the SEC hits consensus with a lawsuit as the regulator continues its crypto Crackdown the US Treasury finalizes new digital asset reporting rules and Krakens Tomas perfumo weighs in on what’s driving the crypto Market as we head into the second half of 2024 welcome to cnbc’s crypto world I’m TAA mckel we are kicking off the month of July and the second half of the year with a strong start for crypto by noon Eastern Bitcoin jumped above $63,000 after posting an 8% decline for June ether Rose back above $3,400 and salana also on the rise were expecting movement on spot ether ETFs which the SEC carved a path for back in May those could get approved as soon as tomorrow at the same time the market is bracing for the now defunct Tokyo based exchange Mount gaau to start Distributing as many as 950,000 Bitcoin to customers as part of its bankruptcy process while that’s good news for creditors and customers who’ve been waiting for years it could have a negative effect on price in the short term that said fun Strat Tom Lee said in squawkbox this morning that while the mount gox bankruptcy is hanging over the crypto Market he expects a sharp rebound for the cryptocurrency in the second half of the Year okay let’s talk about the top stories the SEC is suing consensus in the agency’s latest move to Crackdown on the crypto industry the SEC alleges in its lawsuit filed Friday that the blockchain software company quote engaged in the offer and sale of Securities and acted as an unregistered broker through its digital asset wallet called metamask in April consensus tried to preempt the sec’s action with its own lawsuit in Texas alleging overreach on the part of the regulator the company said its suit followed three subpoenas issued last year plus a Wells notice from the SEC that claimed consensus was violating Federal Securities laws this lawsuit is a major shift from just two weeks ago when consensus declared victory in its fight with the SEC consensus said at the time that it received a letter from the agency saying it would be closing its investigation into ethereum 2.0 and not pursue an enforcement action against consensus when we spoke with the head of litigation and investigations at consensus late last month she told us the company was planning to continue on with its lawsuit against the agency despite that letter a consensus spokesperson told CNBC on Friday that the SEC action is part of a quote anti- crypto agenda at the agency adding that this is just the latest example of its regulatory overreach and a transparent attempt to redefine well-established legal standards next the US Treasury Department has finalized rules to help it track down crypto tax evasion in a statement posted on Friday the treasury and IRS released final regulations for crypto Brokers which the treasury says match reporting requirements for traditional financial institutions among other rules Brokers will now provide clients with a 1099 form specific to digital assets asss which also gives the IRS insight into just how much in taxes a crypto holder owes the treasury’s assistant secretary for tax policy said in Friday’s statement that these new rules will help taxpayers more easily pay taxes owed under current law while reducing evasion by wealthy investors these new guidelines will roll out in phases starting in 2026 for the 2025 tax season finally a federal judge says the sec’s lawsuit against binance can move forward at least to a certain extent in an order on Friday Judge Amy Burman Jackson denied most of bam trading’s motion to dismiss the regulator’s case bam trading being binance’s parent company now judge Jackson did dismiss part of the sec’s case namely charges against binance’s initial coin offering and ongoing sales of the BNB token claims around Lending Service BNB Vault and charges around the sale of the stable coin B USD as a refresher the sued binance and its founder Chang Pang Xiao in June of last year for operating as an unregistered exchange that’s of course before the massive $4.3 billion settlement between the exchange and the us at the end of last year all right let’s turn our attention back to markets I spoke with Krakens Tomas perfumo head of strategy for the digital asset exchange to find out what he expects to be the biggest driving factors for crypto in the second half of this year what is your short-term outlook for Bitcoin um and how is this level today different from this level last month versus this level in March sure so I would say that we’ve had moments like this in the past in terms of consolidation and so obviously going from the new all-time high back in March down to this level uh is not abnormal for Bitcoin in particular what’s interesting about where we are in this level now is that it really corresponds with the decline in volatility and so I think that speaks to the level of consolidation so right now Bitcoin volatility is actually in the 20s uh in terms of annualized percentage and and it’s getting to the point where it’s almost where it was in August of last year which was a 5year low so I think that speaks to the maturation of the asset but also again the level of consolidation in the short run looking forward call the next six months I think the biggest Catalyst for Bitcoin are going to be a few fold you have the ongoing expansion of ETF products uh globally so Hong Kong UK for example uh you also have the ongoing expansion of access to ETF products here in the US so for example a lot of registered investment advisers still have not made it available to their end clients and wealth management customers for example and then I would say the ethereum ETF is a big deal there’s a very high correlation between Bitcoin and ethereum of course and so that’s an event we expect to play out in the next couple months and then the US elections also big news so that’s something that’s going to come in the next five six months and a lot of the rhetoric there I think is going to be impactful to bitcoin where does the macro fall into all of that we’re all thinking about and talking about potential rate Cuts in September the macro I think is broadly very supportive and so on a few fronts I think what you describe here with rates is going to be of course impactful to everything from equities and to bitcoin we’ve seen historically a level of correlation between the two so even now getting past a lot of the idiosyncratic events like uh the Bitcoin ETF launch and like the having where the correlation between us Equity indices like the s&p500 and the NASDAQ as and Bitcoin was actually negative and now we’ve turned positive roughly point4 nowadays and so I think that is a reflection of us returning to that kind of macro driven trading around Bitcoin as well and so the rate Cuts I personally think is going to be broadly supportive of Bitcoin whether the rate Cuts happen in September or even early next year and I don’t have a strong view either way um that’s going to be in my opinion a tailwind and you’re seeing that as well in the equity markets where volatility for these indices are actually dropping down to around 10% annualized on a on a realized basis so super low when you think about it in general for risk assets uh but again I think rate cuts are probably going to be the main driver of this and then of course the US election so what happens there what that bodess for the economy longer term I think that’s going to be a big driver as well Bitcoin um has been trading in tandem with the NASDAQ 100 since about 2020 albeit not perfectly um and we’re seeing kind of a Divergence there right now do you see any signal in how those two have been Trading relative to each other recently I think it really has to do with those idiosyncratic events so again like the Bitcoin having that’s completely unrelated to uh to the NASDAQ for example I think the NASDAQ in particular responds strongly to the rate environment because a lot of the tech industry being built on uh negative or low cash flows or earnings uh tends to be very hit pretty hard when you when you talk about ra Rising rate environment and so um I think that also corresponds with Bitcoin the idea that you have more liquidity in the economy more liquidity in the financial markets uh obviously with Bitcoin being a relatively small asset we’re talking about a trillion dollars whereas equities are in the hundred trillion dollar plus range globally speaking and so uh that of course has a big impact but I think the biggest idiosyncratic events for crypto are going to be the theem ETF and then in part the election because in the US anyway there isn’t enough CL it when it comes to regulatory posture in the country and so that’s something that of course already exists for Nasdaq and most of the constituents not for crypto um back to bitcoin to cap this off what do you see between now and the end of the year certainly you know we are in kind of the summer do drums uh you had rattled off a lot of key catalysts we you know at at this very moment we’re seeing kind of slowing um demand for the ETFs and some minor selling but how how far down do you see um Bitcoin going again before it reverses higher probably to hit another record this year sure so I’ll break it down in a shortterm long term on the shortterm side I think a lot of people still live off of The Narrative of the Bitcoin having and the Cycles around it uh so my kind of rules of thumb if you are someone who follows the historical patterns you tend to have Market Peaks 12 to 18 months after a having date um you tend to have volatility pick up near nearly triple digits in the past and we’ve only seen it as high as 80% very briefly back in March and so again back down to around 30% maybe 25 30% so very low by historical standards uh you also have the low within 30 days of the having usually being a support for the entirety of the the having periods between having and so these are things that I personally look towards to understand are we breaking trend from historical patterns are we not 15% move is not unknown to us in the crypto industry of course and so I think it really depends on how these Catal play out there’s already a lot of positive expectations built into it not a lot of downside so the downside shocks are I think what hits you uh what surprises you now longer term it’s really the story of adoption crypto adoption in general globally is a little less than 10% and so if you believe this is a technology that’s going to pick up and get to much higher levels I mean you you think about internet penetration at 60 plus% of the global population if you got anywhere near that when it comes to crypto I mean you’re talking about a huge amount of people and net capital flows into an asset whose Supply just doesn’t change you can’t mint more of it you can’t mine or create out of it thin air and so that story leads to an environment where frankly you have squeezes higher and so uh I personally see a lot of potential longer term for Bitcoin ethereum any kind of viable crypto asset that serves uh a purpose poor people in in the world globally and so that’s how I break it down okay that’s all for crypto world today we’ll be back again tomorrow and we’ll see you then

CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what’s ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today’s show, Thomas Perfumo, head of business operations & strategy at Kraken, weighs in on what’s driving the crypto market the second half of 2024 kicks off.

Chapters:
00:00 – CNBC Crypto World, July 1, 2024
0:25 – Bitcoin jumps
1:18 – The headlines
4:20- Kraken’s Thomas Perfumo

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Bitcoin jumps back above $63,000 to kick off second half of 2024: CNBC Crypto World