Bitcoin Crashing and Double-Digit Crypto Capitulation: The 4-Year Cycle is Repeating

Bitcoin Crashing and Double-Digit Crypto Capitulation: The 4-Year Cycle is Repeating

it’s been a bloody few days for Bitcoin and crypto investors with Bitcoin down and cryptocurrencies down double digits is Bitcoin going to reach this target of 30% Corrections or more from the all-time high and why isn’t Bitcoin and crypto playing ball with the S&P 500 or with the US Stock markets as they hit new alltime highs this is the everything bubble why isn’t it happening for Bitcoin and crypto I’m going to explain that in today’s video along with an update on the correction from the top as we talked about it in March of 2024 you’ve reached your home of macro cycle analysis with me Jason pazo we’re covering Bitcoin cryptos stock markets and of course the real estate markets and the the big one the 18-year real estate cycle thanks again for liking the videos and if you are new hit the Subscribe button so you don’t miss out and the videos make sense as they’re in chronological order explaining the markets the way I see it with my own analysis and you can see the back history here of what we are doing on the Channel all right let’s kick it off with a couple of wise words from those who have come before us understanding the markets you make the most of your money in a bare Market you just don’t realize it at the time I think many have seen this happen firstand now especially some of you guys the viewers and also Tia members getting into BTC getting into some strong positions early in the cycle holding strong since 17K says Taylor from uh on on YouTube the other day which is fantastic and some of the other guys renewing their memberships and just absolutely crushing it for themselves paying back those memberships in no time and so I want to bring this one up here this is sort of stuff that interests me when the market is correcting especially if it’s in a macro higher low based on what I think is happening in the market because again I’m putting my own money into it uh essentially at those times you’ll see that it is where you make your money in that longer term now of course you need to have some inv validation levels in case you are wrong because well no one knows 100% for sure you’re just trying to weigh up the probabilities in your side on your side so that when the market does take off you’re you’re in that position ready to go now of course maybe you’re all wrong we’re all wrong and the invalidation level gets hit Market collapses from this point I don’t think that’s the case but you’ve got Cycles within Cycles so you’ve got big pumps to the upside and Corrections which need to fool most to the people most of the time now am I just repeating this to tell myself this maybe I’ve said that before in the previous quote but at the end of the day you got to be confident with the analysis that you’re either listening to or implementing for yourself that you’re researching for yourself after you hear about it which is I guess what I do and what I’m sharing with you and uh for this stage of the cycle I think this is really starting to fool more people uh most of the time it fooled them to the upside in March and I think it’s going to do the same thing to the downside and I just want to let you know that I do change my shirt every now and then so that was yesterday’s video there let’s have a look at the traditional markets let’s have a look at a broad uh macroeconomic Outlook some of the announcements coming up next week just so we can pay attention to some of the volatility that that might come into these markets essentially next week CPI uh reading is coming up people tend to pay attention to this as it comes up but I mean look this one here is pretty interesting 12 12 months the CPI year-over-year has basically been the same but when you see this come out the emotion around it and the amount of attention that it gets month to month is vastly different hugely bullish hugely bearish people think it means the world to the markets based on what I’ve seen over many many many years in the markets it doesn’t really matter providing you can read a chart and you you’ve got the tools to read a chart essentially so we’ll get this announcement next week with the CPI at the moment the forecast is for 3.3% does that mean interest rates go up or down let’s see what happens at the end of the month I’ve been saying that interest rates were probably going to stay on hold throughout the entirety of the Year back in January but of course we’ll see what the FED does from this point next thing is the new all-time highs for the stock market of course I’m talking about Bitcoin and cryptos um later in the video but I want to paint the picture of where where we’re going and what I’m seeing in the markets at the moment and essentially uh looking at all these new all-time highs that keep coming in for the S&P this year’s it’s up to 33 days it said it’s 33rd of the year new all-time high for the S&P of course this streak has to come to an end eventually but if the trend is up and the signs are there for further prices then don’t fight it it is potentially just a matter of time and until say Bitcoin and the strong cryptos will come back and I’m going to review the chart of the S&P versus BTC just as we see xrp get annihilated an important thing to that I remind myself about here is trying not to call the top so this is just a friendly discussion here saying that the markets are going to correct a mega correction due very soon I mean how is that shortly you know the mega correction coming up very shortly playing out for you they’re very patient and I’m just saying I wouldn’t miss a macro multi-year bull market for the sake of a multi-month market it’s like just waiting for the pennies when the dollars are are in front of you doesn’t make sense so yes I’m obviously in the bullish Camp the first thing that I’m looking at when it comes to bitcoin cryptos is that it seems like the interest is not in crypto and it’s flipped over to the stock market pushing to new fresh highs that’s for the S&P that’s for the NASDAQ plenty of uh Tech tech stocks doing their thing pushing even higher and you still have the same folks trying to short this Market looking at all the different angles and lines and ridiculous stupid if I could say so myself stupid ta to try and pick tops and then try to short this thing like an absolute egomaniac hero I have no idea why Bloody Tesla’s up 133% Apple $221.50 new alltime High new alltime high daily close Amazon 197 yesterday the day before new alltime high and it just had a correction Tiny correction overnight Google new alltime High new alltime high daily close Microsoft new alltime High new alltime high daily close Nvidia 128 back on the correction after everyone got freaked out two weeks ago and it’s pushing higher again and as as we just looked at Tesla there basically pushing to new fresh highs so that leads me over to S&P and starting get starting to get into some of the comparisons here with Bitcoin and the S&P 500 this is a chart that I put together many many many months ago and comparing the the run of the S&P to bitcoin so I’ll just draw your attention to the white arrows these are the breakout periods for the S&P 500 into new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and then the yellow boxes are basically what was Bitcoin doing at that time Bitcoin was essentially in an accumulation stage through these boxes you see that there and that’s basically from the low Until It Breaks out of that all-time high that’s what it represents there this case however Bitcoin has broken out of the new all-time high but it is back within the range of the previous old tops meanwhile the S&P 500 has continued on its charge to another new all-time high after it corrected so so all I’m looking at here and then comparing um the Bitcoin price and the price sorry the price action to what the S&P did is the S&P starts the charge pushes to a new Fresh High more interest comes into the market Bitcoin runs up with it as well thereabouts not to not to the exact day but around that period there’s a lot of excitement in the market and then the S&P has a bit of a correction and attempts another rally and meanwhile Bitcoin corrects and then as it goes for its second charg it the all-time high Bitcoin joins the party sometimes a little earlier with that run sometimes slightly later but it joins that run again after the correction uh but that could be a significant period of time so that’s the cycle of 2019 to 2020 so four years ago so I’m looking at some of the similarities to what happened four years ago in the market now uh Bitcoin in 2015 to 2017 you got the S&P going up Bitcoin basically flat during this period at that accumulation low when it was around the 100 to 300 $0000 and then the S&P has its big correction attempts the new all-time high again leading into that election that was the Trump Hillary election and Bitcoin joins the party with it little pullback and then basically everything goes bananers into 2017 you got this big big pump up back again we can look at the new all-time high for sorry a new Fresh High because this case it was just under the GFC top a new Fresh High Bitcoin is still trying to figure out what it wants to do in 2020 uh 2012 it pauses and then it goes for another run up the S&P goes for another run up into a new Fresh high and Bitcoin joins the party and then joins the party in a very very big way so for 20121 something similar into those Peaks it joins the party goes on a big pump now it’s joined the party together they ran up got some new fresh highs this time however Bitcoin hit a new all-time high it’s correcting at the moment down to 582 as I record this and from that point the S&P runs up so does the S&P have a correction or at least some sort of pause in the coming months as we lead into that election and then they join the party together in quarter four before everything sort of takes off from that point I’m thinking it’s something similar to that the the movements have been very similar however the corrections themselves for the S&P 500 have been shallower this time time so it’s not that a it’s not this time is different it’s very much similar because it’s never the same and in this case something that is different but similar to previously you still had the correction but the depth of the correction they’re never going to be exactly the same so I think the Smart Ones Among Us and would say it’s the majority of us watching can understand that when it comes to the the old quote this time is different it’s never going to be exactly the same there’s going to be some uh some minor differences but the overall is going to be relatively the same so conditions are shallow of pullbacks that’s what we saw in this case here for April 2024 it pushed up Shallow correction bitcoin’s gone on its correction you can see here there’s the peak Bitcoin went on its correction S&P also had a few months of Correction here until it started the party for a second time do we get that again not sure at this stage because of how strong the markets are in this final stage of the winners curse uh the winners curse phase of the 18year cycle and so I think this is going to be part of that everything where everything just keeps going up the US dollar is also helping this everything bubble it’s pausing here it’s had a little bit of a correction over the last 24 hours the macro look over the coming months even if it pushes higher here 106 107 is that it seems like the US dollar is running out of steam and will eventually roll over just based on what I’m seeing here on the charts and if that’s the case then it’s probably going to allow a little bit more uh Steam and a little bit more pump into the other assets like stock markets and and Bitcoin and cryptos as we can see with the the currencies around the globe as they collapse or as they fall not all not all of them are collapsing but some of them are falling right that is pushing up asset prices in those countries prime example you’ve got Lebanon look at the boom here in the last few months as their currency basically collapses now I’m using the most extreme examples like Lebanon where their currency is basically hyper inflating and it’s basically worthless now Bitcoin got to a peak of six six billion pounds uh you can choose say Argentina the Argentinian peso has also boomed this was the 27 2017 tops back here sorry 2021 tops and it is way above those previous old alltime highs because their currency has been dropping off uh you can see it’s at 53 million peso who else can we choose we can choose turkey have a look at the Turkish Lura which has also been collapsing uh it’s way above those levels there at nearly 2 million l or was just a couple of weeks ago so as the currencies continue to drop and I think that will happen with the US dollar I think it’s a matter of time until that comes through into Bitcoin and cryptos even if we are seeing Bitcoin put in a low here 50 around 58,60 and it just pushed to uh 57800 so almost one of the lowest prices it’s coming back to test that May 1st low now before I get tooo carried away with the Bitcoin price action let’s just have a a quick look at uh the fear and greed which is also Back In Fear And I dare say when the market closes tomorrow uh unless we get a big rebound for BTC a higher close and you know low open here uh it’ll probably read another fearful day which to me is just continuing to reset the market sentiment after the hype that we had back in March it got to a it got close to 90 on those few days there and I think they’ve they’ve adjusted some of the readings here if I’m not mistaken you guys let me know if you’ve seen this as well if this has been adjusted slightly but anyway nonetheless the reset in the market sentiment seems to be going on here for uh Bitcoin and cryptos what’s also going on as we quickly covered yesterday and again just quickly today the search volume for the term Bitcoin is well and truly down and it is back to levels that it was at near the breakout in October so a lot of interest has dropped off but the price is way above where it was in October October was down at 27 now at 58 so over 100% higher in price but at the same search volume so what that tells me is there are still more holders in the market more of your Bitcoin huddles than there are sellers because there’s more people willing to hold it up at this price even though the search volume is the same now of course many people have different views on the search volume I’ll leave that to them to to battle out themselves it’s worked for me so I continue to use it and then continue to share it with you guys here on the channel what’s also worked was that top 4 to 6 months so let’s not forget where we are at with that 4 to six month call we are still looking out towards July through to September uh that was just that that top that came in after the all-time high with a signal major signal that we used at Tia Michael used that and back tested it and we’ve now back tested it to see how months the price would remain underneath the old alltime high we were laughed at at the time during those Peaks but now you can really see the the huge importance of understanding your trading rules and understanding your trading signals more importantly there and so many of our members have done very very well even you guys is watching the content here on YouTube have written in to let me know how well you’ve been doing with your own trading and investing and some of you have paid for holidays to Greece just with some of the calls we made on the channel here uh some of the other guys as I said earlier you guys have paid back your memberships just with understanding how to read the charts and then implementing it for yourselves so it makes me very very happy to see that you are able to do this for yourself now to join Tia premium while the sale is on use a link in the top of the video description to get onto the email list and that email will come out to you in the next few hours all right let’s carry on with the analysis over uh BTC we now have a new lower low for the weekly chart now in terms of the price ranges here to the downside the 50% ex sorry the 100% extension comes out at around 54,000 800 so slightly below the $565,000 low what I’ve got here the fights we got a lot of fights that will probably break out when it comes to the price of BTC remember this is all part of that market Cent when the market gets fearful you’re wrong you’re right Market you know it’s it’s coming down more it’s it’s over that sort of stuff what I think will happen over the the next six months or of course until the end of the year when we get to the end of the year I think you’ll look back and just fig wonder why people were fighting over price ranges between around the low of 56 and the major 50% level of 44k does it get to 44k of course I have no flipping idea whether it’s going to do that because otherwise if you knew exactly what was going to happen well then you know the Future No One Knows the future right but what I think will happen is that the fights that are breaking out at the moment with how wrong or right people are will be forgotten about in six months time because this emotion will be will have left the market it will reset and will either grind out or bounce back quickly and then we’ll be at higher prices by the end of the year and to the downside that brings it out at about 40% correction has this happened in the past yes it definitely has happened in the past have we had 30% Corrections in the past yes I’m sure you guys have heard that does it bring you any sort of relief right now I don’t know that’s up to you and how your emotions are in the markets but let’s have a look at the monthly here and the corrections this was part of the analysis that I put together to identify a potential Peak here and then how long the market would remain below that top for just looking at swings using our G swing indicator uh that’s something that we go through in Greater detail with the members in Tia premium learning how to use that for your own trading and longer term investing of course it’s not all about just sitting in front of your computer on a minute chart for the longer stuff so anyway we looked at the weekly swings here and uh identified some of the major turning points for the market where it likes to put in some some swing bottoms now in terms of the time frames that it can digest a move for it’s happened multiple times back in 2016 you had a five six month period and then a break out and then another 5 to six month period of consolidation before that final pump to the upside so as it sits we’ve done a seven Monon consolidation pump to the upside and we are now doing one 2 three we’re our fourth month of potential consolidation and towards the end of the year I would look to some sort of breakout so I’m just looking back at history studying what I can here and then applying it moving forward along with applying risk management strategies for your own trading investing okay so that’s looking at 2016 into the 2017 pump it also happened uh years before that in 2012 so four years before that again four-month consolidation breakout 5 month consolidation breakout Corrections there were about 40% Corrections here they got up to about 30% yes times were different prices were different liquidity levels were different but right now when we look at the uh the price and the correction there you can see that at 23% correction 30 isn’t that far off and it brings us back to the um the previous consolidation before that final breakout that sort of late February into March was probably the most crazy time so that’s where the majority of the late entrance got into the market so it could only be natural to get rid of those late buyers wash them out get rid of the the week hands and then uh get ready for the uh the diamond hands to go north again e BTC still holding above the macro 50% level here so that’s a good sign for the bull market or you know an altcoin bull market an eth bull market and the confirmation levels are above this white line here at 6% and then 65% which would be the the major 50% of the down move so e BTC still holding up relatively well take a quick look at eusd it has pushed close to that pre pre uh pre- breakout level and that was the consolidation back here at 32 so it’s something to pay attention to that particular line there that bar was the eth ETF hype and it has almost come back to um take back all of those gains from that that particular bar so again another one to pay particular attention to now salana is also having a little bit of a struggle Street here yesterday it closed above the 50 % level at 149 so it was able to get one close above that level but it closed back under so that’s why I look at confirmation on a longer term time frame and you guys had this yesterday looking for the weeklies or the monthly which is a long way off so if we wanted more confirmation then we would look to the $165 level which is right here where I’ve got this insurance line here what that means is you’re paying more for the asset that you looking at but you’ve got more you’ve got a better insurance plan right so that’s the premium that you’re paying from where the price is now at 135 if you wanted to buy the dip well you’ve got higher risk that it’s going to go lower than the the bottoms here at 118 and then potentially break down or you wait and buy Above the insurance line which is about a $30 $30 move away so for every salana you want or Every Soul you want to buy at the insurance level that premium level you’re paying an extra $30 from today’s from this current price for that so so that’s something you got to weigh up for your own plans are you a buy the dip sort of person with very strict stop losses in place so that you don’t lose too much because to the downside I mean you could lose $30 to the upside and wait but to the downside what if it came back and tested that level there’s another 13 bucks there it takes out the lows there’s another $16 and then to get to 30 bucks well then you you’re back at these these previous lows here that’s 30 $36 loss per Soul so that’s how you put it together when it comes to your style of trading buy the dip with stops buy the breakout you got an insurance premium completely up to you four years ago all right so we were talking about how this is similar to to four years ago with um with some of the corrections we go back to Soul before it had this huge huge breakout many many many days down it broke down to an 80% loss on the token right and then from the low to the other low just thought that was interesting it still had a 20% loss there so from from the bottom here at a120 down to the low at a dollar still you could lose 20% during that period there which was about two months and then out of like out of nowhere it just Booms to the upside and all of a sudden it’s tripled in value which it pretty much locks out a lot of people who were waiting for cheaper prices so do you buy the dip and hold in here or do you wait for the breakout and hope or that your emotions can make sure you buy on any sort of signs of strength because right now everything seems very down very fearful of course we’re down back at um the 30 levels and it seems like it’s resetting things so it’s really up to the individual can you stomach any sort of whipss in terms of major uh percentages to then get back into the market and then if you don’t well then you just basically sit on the sidelines and wait and sit on the sidelines and wait sit on the sidelines you know the story right that’s how it that’s how it plays out time and time again all right and the last one I want to look at is Doge it was a massive player last cycle this cycle it seems like it’s going to other meme coins do really doesn’t seem like it’s the big player here but nonetheless it also did a 60% correction into October 2020 from a peak there in July which of course is exactly four years ago had the correction there and then that was into October November you had the election and then everything was Rosy after that point just everything boomed uh just crazy amounts from that point there so at the moment 60% down to Doge on Doge would be around 8 or9 cents down from its top at 23 cents so not not far off where it currently is and that’s essentially what I’m looking at when it comes to something similar to to four years ago we had these sort of plays it was an election year uh we had Co just before so some of the patterns became a little bit cleaner and you had a lot lot more people exit in March as opposed to exiting on the the second decline whereas this time around haven’t had too many exit on any of those first declines so maybe this decline here might be the the larger one or the more scary one than what was than than what happened in January or even earlier back in sort of August September October of 2023 so there normally is one of those more major scary Corrections are we in that now obviously time will tell can’t say for sure but when we just look at the fear and GRE index it seems like this might be the more scarier correction from what we’ve seen in this entire cycle because previous to that there hadn’t been any almost any fear days we had that one day one exception there in September where it got to 30 and apart from that it was basically up from June 2022 Link in the top of the video description as I said for Tia premium sales on for the next 12 hours have a fantastic Independence Day if you celebrate that in the US otherwise I’ll see you back here on the channel probably early next week as I’m heading out to Indonesia for a surf trip but I’ll still be online if something crazy happens we’ll go live do something cool all right like And subscribe see you back then take care and peace out

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🔴 Video Reference Twitter/X Tweet – Altcoin Leaders vs Laggards
https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/1795638943419105456/photo/1

Description:
As of 2024, the 18.6-year Cycle is in the “Winner’s Curse” Phase of the cycle, or as I am calling it, “The Everything Bubble”. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a significant collapse to unfold. The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when they buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now, including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my Bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews
*I reserve my right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Chart reference to $30,000 candles can be found here (more on X and YouTube this week about the massive price candles coming): https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/1807620948298019111

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, SP500, crypto, economy: part 1
05:00 Bitcoin, SP500, crypto, economy: part 2
11:30 Bitcoin, SP500, crypto, economy: part 3
15:00 Bitcoin, SP500, crypto, economy: part 4
20:33 Bitcoin, SP500, crypto, economy: part 5

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