BIS Warns Of Debt Crisis, Gold To Rally 100% To $4,800 | Ronald-Peter Stoeferle

BIS Warns Of Debt Crisis, Gold To Rally 100% To $4,800 | Ronald-Peter Stoeferle

the market is not saturated yet and and this could trigger another leg up it it could be triggered by three different sources interest rates recession risks and geopolitics and if you have a look at the general sentiment in in capital markets at the moment it seems like you know Goldilocks are are all over everything is fine uh the the Federal Reserve has done a tremendous job in you know killing inflation and not killing the economy Ronald Peter stuff returns to the show he is the managing partner of incrementum AG he and I last spoke in January of this year when the gold price was trading around $2,000 an ounce Ronald said back then it would go higher well it has more than just gone up it has breached new all-time highs surpassing $2,400 an ounce at one point and now at 2360 as we speak on the 3rd of July we can revisit that call by the way if you check out the link Down Below in the description box you can watch Ronald’s last interview with me and see what he said then well Ronald today is calling for the gold price to go much higher still he said this bull run is not over so we’re going to go over his yearend Outlook as well as his multi-year 20 30-year Outlook hint it’s much higher we’re going to find out why we’ll also be talking about the new in Gold We Trust report 2024 Edition Ronald good to see you welcome back to the show thanks for having me David Ronald you’re a good person to get gold price predictions from because you’re a fund manager as well as a researcher which puts you in the position of getting real time fund flow information on a daily basis so um i’ like to start by asking you about your gold price prediction for the intermediate term and then we’ll go over your longer term 2030 Outlook uh later on in the interview starting with your outlook first we’ll talk about the assumptions later absolutely thanks David um so so the so the title of this year’s report is is the new gold Playbook and and and uh the team and I we sat together a couple of months ago and said well actually you know real interest rates uh are are rising um we’re seeing uh positive real rates now uh and still the price of gold is making you all-time highs we’re seeing that um the Western Financial investors which um which can be gauged by um gold ETF demand Western Financial investor is selling gold we’ve seen 850 tons uh of outflows in the last two years from the gold ETFs we’re seeing that um the the average allocation to gold in the western world is ridiculously ridiculously low so so the question is what what has changed in the gold market why are those rules and and and laws that used to work previously why why don’t they work anymore um and I think the one of the the the main reasons is actually that in this new gold PL uh Playbook um central banks have become a decisive factor in the demand for gold so uh more than thousand tons of gold um being purchased by central banks starting in 2022 then again in 2023 and uh q1 um 2024 seems as uh we’re we’re making new new new records again this is basically the reason um um the the for this uh you know the weaponization of Fiat money um and and its consequences but then we’re also seeing that um I would say that um the Western Financial investor isn’t the marginal gold investor anymore so um I think we in the Western World We tend to underestimate the importance of Emerging Market gold demand and you know by 2024 Emerging Markets will produce more than half of the world’s GDP uh while in the year 2000 it it was only 19% and of course as Louis vent G once said gold is a low beta proxy for emerging markets so 65% of global jewelry demand and 50% of investment demand physical investment demand is now coming from China India and the Middle East alone and I think this is really um being vastly underestimated in the Western World okay in your report you’ve stated that uh you anticipate goal to hit 2665 by year and 2024 so second half of the year and then a further appreciation to about $4,800 by 2030 so end of the decade let’s talk about the intermediate Trend first before we talk about the long-term Trend um this chart basically just shows a curve going up into the future intermediate term we have 2655 that is still higher than the previous alltime High um and uh we talked about macroo fa factors you know it’s interesting because real interest rates have been going up this year the inflation rate has been coming down and at least in the US and the uh the dollar has maintained its strength these are headwinds for gold trai traditionally yet gold has still managed to propel itself to 2300 2400 so my question is what’s going to push it to another $200 higher first of all David I think it’s important to say that we’re in a bull market um and we’re seeing classic early bull market action so the miners uh start leading and outperforming the price of gold we’re seeing that silver kind of also is starting to outperform gold gold silver ratio is trading at 77 now um we we have broken this gold silver ratio trend line to the downside so so it really seems that um the the strength of this bull market um is um is is is is pretty strong June normally um is a has got a very very weak seasonality actually gold was flat gold was uh trading at 1,800 in October end of October last year now we’re trading roughly at 2350 um so it seems that there is really um you know so much Capital waiting on the sidelines uh and everybody is is is buying into into every major uh every minor dip so um that just tells me that that this this bull market is is is is extremely healthy we’re seeing a kind of a 10we gold correction but it’s it’s basically a sideways correction which is also a pretty um um uh positive sign now the question that you’ve asked is okay what what could push gold higher from my point of view it is Western Financial investors that are still miss a missing part of the the puzzle we we we’re still seeing net outflows from the gold ETFs to date so um that that would that’s that’s kind of telling me that that that the market is not saturated yet and and this could trigger another leg up so why could the demand from the gold uh ETFs uh actually change um the world go Council put out a great uh piece uh yesterday where they said this actually could it it could be triggered by three different sources interest rates recession risks and geopolitics uh and if you have a look at the general sentiment in in capital markets at the moment it seems like you know Goldilocks uh uh all over everything is fine uh the the Federal Reserve has done a tremendous job in you know killing inflation and not killing the economy um but I think nobody’s really really um having those those um um risks uh discounted in its uh in his assumption so so that might be a trigger going forward and I I think for the longer term we will still see those major Central Bank um um buying programs they will continue because um central banks in the Emerging Markets have got a significant lower share of of of gold uh of their overall um uh FX reserves compared to Industrial Nations before we continue with the video I’d like to tell you about the precious metal sector now gold as you know a hit record highs in 2024 so the question on everybody’s mind is what should we be following and tracking in relation to Gold while I’m here to tell you that Stellar gold is a name to watch Stellar is a leading gold developer with two Cornerstone gold projects in Canada the tower gold project in the prolific timens mining camp and the Colac gold project in the Northwest Territories the company has a massive Global mineral resource estimate one of the largest in Canada for a gold developer its young and ambitious management team with a TR back record of success is aggressively advancing its projects and is determined to unlock significant value if you’re looking for a team who is as enthusiastic about Gold’s future as you are then check out stlr gold.com David Lin in the link down below or scan the QR code here where David Lyn viewers can sign up for their macro gold newsletter to get inside knowledge and updates for free are you not concerned that with interest rates coming down you’re in Europe for example the ECB just cut rates not too long ago with interest rates coming down gold has even more competition from bonds for the Western investors not not really um I think that you know this this this asymmetry of of Central Bank policy that we’re seeing is is is is is also probably a driver for the price of gold what what do I mean that well actually central banks not only the ECB but also the Federal Reserve they they have been um um extremely slow with realizing that that inflation is is actually legit and and and and and it was called transitory and you know um of course Russia was being blamed um for for for the surging inflation um but but they reacted way too too late now we’re still seeing being uh inflation rates above uh 2% and they’re kind of panicking uh and and and and and the ECB already lowered rates um wi which is from my point of view um against the law and and and therefore I think it’s at some point it might be uh some sort of a confidence problem for for the ECB and I can tell you we we were talking before uh about the Euro and I said I’m I’m pretty devastated um because of the results yesterday at the Euro um and you said what happened to the euro I said no I was I was think I was wondering how long it would be until football comes up it hasn’t been even seven minutes yet but yes and by football I mean soccer right I was talking about the soccer tournament and not the Euro the currency um but but still you know um as I’ve said before um um I think that that inflation inflationary risks are are everything but uh but contained and I think there is so many um uh inflationary uh drivers going forward de globalization demographics we’re seeing um you know if if there’s like one thing um that unites the left the right and and and the central populist politicians um in the US but also uh especially in Europe it’s probably the demand for income redistribution uh very much in favor of low and middle uh uh income earners uh we’re seeing this you know this this this this struggle that results from that between wages and profits That’s a classic formula for wage price spirals um we’re seeing this swing in in in the direction of militarism even in countries like Germany in Japan in Sweden we’re seeing Rising defense spending we’re seeing um all those inflationary drivers that would suggest to me that as we have said previously um the great moderation is over so so we might be in for another leg up in inflation and and this will be the point in time when the market realizes that the emperor has no close uh and that would P would um put enormous pressure on the ECB but also on the federal reserve put pressure on them to to what to maintain higher rates uh no I I I think to make a U-turn because um um um if they start lowering rates and and and yesterday it seemed like um that Powell was was hinting rate cut in September um and I have to say I mean I’m if you would have told me like at the beginning of the year um where the market expected seven to eight rate cuts for 2024 yes and now we’re seeing one perhaps two rate Cuts I wouldn’t have expected gold to hold up that that well um I think that’s a sign of strength however um I think the market wants and it needs uh lower rates but if that goes hand inand with um higher or let’s say the next leg up in inflation of course that’s um central banks will have you know have painted themselves into a corner at that point so that’s that’s a threat that I’m seeing um for the medium term medium term you’re still bullish on inflation is that the summary yes for both the Euro area and the US here here’s a counterargument for for why gold matters here uh all throughout last year uh and into this year we saw the rate of inflation which is to say the rate of change of prices come down right in the US it was 99.1% of the peak and now it’s much lower than that not quite at 2% uh but about 3% still much lower than nine the trend has been down we’re starting to see some deflationary pressures in grocery items some at some stores like Target Amazon uh big stores cutting prices on groceries so the trend remains down for inflation however like we mentioned gold has gone the other direction it’s gone up so the counterargument here from the people who don’t believe in this thesis is why does gold still matter for inflation gold no longer behaves as a counter inflation hedge it moves in the same direction when inflation goes down it goes up and in the past couple of years when inflation has gone up um during 2022 gold has actually stayed flat so the question is why does gold still matter as an inflation play that that’s that’s a great point that you’re making and I think we we really have to differentiate between um the driving factors from from the Western World and Emerging Markets as as I’ve said before I think that really Emerging Market physical gold demand um is now the the driving force between this uh between this move in in in Gold um and so the question could be um and I hope that that that that answers um um um the point that you’re making the question could could be why are um we why are we still seeing um you know falling ETF Holdings when real interest rates Rise um in the western world and I think the Assumption basically is um that Western Financial investors are not exposed to increased counterparty risks um and therefore they basically there’s no need for a default proof asset and you know bonds are fine of course now um um yields are juicy again um but defaults aren’t the risk at all um I think the second point would be that real interest rates will remain positive in the future and the second of in second wave of inflation will not occur I think that’s very very much the general sentiment uh in the Market at the moment um and the third would probably be that they suffer opportunity costs if if they underweigh traditional asset classes such especially equities and bonds um or even real estate at the expense of gold um and the question is if those three main assumptions again from the typical Western Financial investor if that could change so counterparty risk real interest rates remaining positive and not seeing another wave of inflation and the third one would be uh opportunity cost from from equities and bonds from my point of view that could change and this would probably be the next um um um that would trigger the next leg up in Gold if Western Financial investors should realize okay well perhaps we should have a little bit more than like zero to 1% exposure in in in in Gold that’s a good segue here in your 2024 report uh you wrote that this research found that a 16 to 19% allocation of gold in a portfolio maximizes risk adjusted performance our calculations show that the integration of gold into an equity Bond portfolio has a clear positive impact on the sharp ratio well that makes sense because uh gold here reduces the volatility therefore increasing the sharp ratio so my question is if the optimal portfolio allocation is around 16 to 19% why is it that most family offices and funds allocate 2% to Gold 5% % maximum is what I’ve heard in a lot of funds I don’t know um I mean they haven’t read your research that’s the that’s the answer I was looking for we you know we we tried to do our best to make a sober and solid fact-based case for gold uh and and we’ve got a chapter uh about the the marketing or the image problem of gold um in the Western World um I I think it’s it’s you know uh it’s not an asset that that especially in tional players really enjoy having or enjoy enjoy buying for for several reasons um it is very much you know many many people think that if they buy gold that also is um confirming the view that everything will go to hell that we will see hyperinflation uh Civil War and you know the end of the world as we know it from my point of view it’s not and there’s you know this this Safe Haven uh gold demand but there’s also this performance gold demand and and and as I’ve said before if if we say that that gold is actually a play on the rise or the growth of emerging markets and there is several studies that we um that that we site in the report that say okay with higher disposable income in Emerging Markets um actually gold demand is just Rising so if we say okay this is the positive case for gold that might make a change um as a as I’ve said before um so far in the Western World you know allocations to Gold are are totally insignificant and there there are many uh many private Banks coming out now and say yeah based on our views one should own like two to three% um gold in in in in your portfolio I mean we crunch the numbers and actually two to 3% doesn’t make any difference uh from a portfolio point of view and therefore we’ve crunched the numbers and you know we’re analyzing the the the the impact on the sharp ratio and so on and come up with this with this Optimum um gold allocation now that also means that um from our point of view and this was one of the the key takeaways we think that we should move from from the old 6040 portfolio which was basically 60% equities and 40% bonds to a new 6040 portfolio because um you know the the the the the main premise of the old 6040 portfolio was actually coming from 40 Years of low inflation volatility so actually from this um um time of the great moderation if our assumption is correct that the great moderation is over and that will have that will see more inflation volatility then I think uh everybody should kind of reconsider um the portfolio allocations this is the new 6040 according to the new report you have stocks 45% bonds 15% so stocks plus bonds equals 60% and the other 40% you have gold and it’s just interesting because you’ve differentiated Safe Haven gold so I guess bullan gold yes 15% and then performance gold which I believe is just gold stocks right mining stocks 10% also silver yeah also silver okay Commodities 10% and Bitcoin 5% we’ll finish off on Bitcoin in just a bit uh performance gold so why have you differentiated I gu gold stocks well let’s take silver out of the equation but gold stocks you’re not putting in the stocks category yeah because I I think that um I think it’s it’s it’s if if if you buy gold or or or or or or or considering a new allocation to Gold I think you you have to ask yourself what what is your motive um do you really want to hedge against worst case scenarios or do you want to just make a performance um we talked to many many institutional players many family offices and and actually safe um um um um storage of physical gold um avoiding counterparty risk um moving their gold Holdings to several um um different jurisdictions different continents um this is really um it has become a big thing because probably because of this loss uh loss of trust in you know politics uh the rule of law whatever but I think this what we call Save Haven gold this is really something where the price actually doesn’t um doesn’t doesn’t count too much this is really like a worst case um hedge but then if you say I want to make performance I think that the price of gold is is is too low I don’t think that we’ll see the end of the world of course there will be hiccups um but but I want to buy gold and make some performance then you can buy mining stocks you can buy the gold and silver mining space you can buy silver you can use leverage whatever but I think it’s it’s it’s really important to differentiate between those two different motives um and you know after being in this space for for almost 20 20 years and and and managing um um funds that include gold for um almost 10 years now um and losing you know lots of hair uh in that process um because it’s it’s really it’s probably the most complex asset class that you can imagine the most top down asset class is is is is probably gold and silver Mining and our assumption is that um gold stocks aren’t a long only asset class it’s not something where Buy and Hold works it has to be timed very very actively so we created this active AUM signal that is basically telling us okay now you got to play offense now you got to play defense so so this is our view um now at the moment that’s that’s probably going to be a next question now we’re really all in we’re taking um leverage we’re buying into the the the the small cap space but there will be a time when when we will be get out of the market or play more defense buying you know more more the large caps or the royalty space or even um bonds from the mining space but now I think it is time to play offense also in the gold mining space because you think the miners have not caught up to gold price yet yes um I mean uh the Hy the goldbox index was trading uh in I think 2011 at at almost 600 600 points now we’re trading at 270 of course there was quite a lot of dilution um um so um they’ve been inflating their share count uh quite aggressively but I think you know there’s tremendous opportunities in the in the mining space out there and I really look forward to the Q2 numbers I think most of the analysts out there are way too bearish I I really expect uh tremendous amounts of free cash FL being produced and and I think that at least the companies that we follow they they really learned their lesson and and and they’re still very very cheap you know it doesn’t look great for the gold miners when gold has had such a huge rally in the miners up until the last month have been underperforming uh for investors we think well why can’t I just invest in the metal right because that is leverage in itself the the miners are just putting oper operational risk in front of the metal um how would you respond to that how would you convince investors that perhaps there’s still leverage for the miners yet well David I was um I did quite a lot of um um Keynotes recently attended conferences and um there there was one particular conference you know lots of private Bankers institutional players and I can tell you at breakfast you know coffee um during lunch dinner and at the bar they were all talking about one stock Nidia um and I think you know we know it’s it’s the world’s most valuable company now at at 40 time 40 time 42 times sales I think um this is pretty much unheard of um for a very very cyclical um semiconductor stock um you know that the market cap now is is roughly three trillion uh which is 10 times as much as all the gold and silver miners in the world so so from my point of view um as long as we’re seeing um this poll Market in in in US tech which is only being led by one company anymore um I think that that the gold mining space will continue to have a hard time but I think at at at some point um we will see that um um you know the numbers are the numbers are excellent um I I would call some some some mining companies even even deep Value Place at the moment and um as as Naval said be right when everybody is wrong at scale and I think you can you can now um really really find potential five to 10 beggers without taking too much risk in the mining space well yeah I mean according to your portfolio allocation you’re not going all in on mining stocks performance gold is 10% of the portfolio so uh okay Ronald let’s talk about uh the economy so we have uh a situation where yes the Asian investors Chinese in particular according to the world go Council they bought 68% more gold in the last year than the previous year according to investment demand flows uh this is largely due to the fact that well the Chinese economy is not doing well as you know there’s a real estate crisis going on youth unemployment is high or Rising actually a lot of the gold came from younger people uh gold buying uh who want to protect against their future you know this same this this this same chaos is not here in the west at least not yet so my question is what in the economy what economic factors can drive will potentially Drive Western investors to buy gold with kind of the same mentality as the Chinese last year I I think you know for for China obviously there’s there’s not too much um you know other opportunities and and and and and to to invest real estate has has been the premier uh choice for for uh Chinese investors and um you know we we’re seeing now that the the cash Holdings uh in China are at a record high so so so the Chinese household cash Holdings um that’s like 108% of GDP so it it’s pretty significant and I don’t think that the Chinese gold demand um will will collapse going forward it could take a breather from my point of view as uh we’re seeing now with the third uh Plum which will be in July I think there will be um quite some some measures to stabilize the real estate market to stabilize the economy and I’m actually pretty confident regarding the Chinese stock market I have to say um anyways um talking about the Western World um I would say that you know um the elephant in the room is is is obviously is obviously debt um since year 2020 in the US an additional 11 trillion in debt has been accumulated um and and and I I think you know for for the US it’s now it’s uh 35.3 trillion um that’s 125% of US GDP now coming back to Europe if if you remember you know the beginning of the Euro crisis 200920 for the sake of comparison Greece right before the euro crisis started was at 127% debt to GDP of course um the Greeks couldn’t print their currency but still um so so my point would be at some point um I think that that that will start to matter and and and and um I’m I’m not really sure if if if if this very very aggressive um fiscal stimulus that we’re seeing in the United States if if that’s really sustainable and and of course I mean we we’ve got an election year coming up but but but having a look at um um you know the the this this mon this this fiscal dominance that we’re seeing not only in the US but but all over the globe basically especially also in in in large parts of the Euro Zone um I think this is vastly being underestimated as an inflationary driver I think that that was really one of the major changes starting in 2020 with the covid crisis so so a debt crisis not in Emerging Markets but rather in industrialized nations I think that could really be a trigger for the gold market let let me just interject here uh bis the bank of international settlements came out with this report this was reported in the Wall Street Journal just two days ago July 1st headline is rising government debt threatens Financial stability inflation the bis says the central bank for central banks warned that Rising debt levels exposed governments to the risk of a crisis similar to that which royed the UK in 2022 uh this is from the report markets could at some point question fiscal sustainability head of the bis Economic Department said in a press conference we know from experience that things look sustainable until suddenly they no longer do in the annual Global report uh the global economy uh according to this uh report uh it said that uh Rising Dead levels exposed governments the risk of a crisis similar to the UK when investors suddenly Shi away from government bonds driving borrowing costs up sharply weakening the currency and sending Equity markets into a tail spin this is the sequence of events that they’re projecting could be a risk could you respond to that yeah uh I mean I can only confirm what what Nasim Talib um probably one of the the smartest guys out there recently said said a US debt crisis is a is a white swan um so not a not a Black Swan but a white swan something that will happen 100% sooner or later um now obviously um if if we compare it to the UK and and I was actually in in in London during that time um that was that was pure panic when the UK guilt Market completely broke down can it happen in the US I think yes but it it it it will take uh it it it can go on um for for for longer than we all think however you know um just just um what’s going to be the the US budget deficit um for 2024 the fiscal year 2024 is is is is um 1.6 trillion that’s roughly equivalent to the total GDP of Spain which is the 15th largest economy in the world um I think us um debt payments um or interest payments if we stay at the same interest rate level like like like currently will be 1.7 trillion uh next year what’s the US GDP I think it’s 24 25 uh trillion so those numbers are really significant and therefore from from my point of view it’s it’s it’s it’s just given it’s 100 I’m 100% sure that at some point uh the Federal Reserve will have to step in with um I don’t know if it if it’s going to be cool called QE again or if the come up with a new um fancy um um term and abbreviation but something like that will have to happen at some point and you know just look at Japan that’s that’s like the monetary end game and um I think we’re we’re we’re following the Japanese well let’s talk about Japan right now the the Yen has been weakening it’s at 161 to the dollar uh do you think that if the bank of Japan intervenes at some point uh to prop up their currency they’ll have to sell some other assets like treasuries would that have any significant impact on the US Treasury Market have you looked into this it could but of course I mean um there’s a very strong alliance between uh uh Japan and the and the US and and very close ties uh between the Federal Reserve and the bank of Japan um I I actually don’t know I think that 160 is is kind of the Line in the Sand and I I I I I kind we’re kind of considering going long um not as a as just as as as as as a trade uh from from a tactical point of view I think it’s um it’s it’s it’s a pretty interesting risk reward um but but the best trade probably is is is is basically being long the the golden Japanese Yen terms I mean that’s like the perfect chart yeah um um and and and if you have a look at the numbers and and I mean the Japanese yen is still the third largest currency um you know gold year to date is up 30% in Japanese end terms it was up 21% last year it was up 15% in 2022 so this this basically tells you that gold is just doing its job yeah it’s it’s protecting you from uh from you know um monetary um aggressiveness from from inflation it’s it’s it’s it’s just a very very decent uh Fiat money hatch and that’s that’s that’s just the primary role of gold and I think it’s playing that role pretty pretty well well just as an as Side based on the numerous conversations you’ve had with people at conferences clients so on and so forth have people shifted their sentiment to go from a safe haven hedge play to a more risk-on asset I mean it’s been climbing alongside stocks good correlation with the S&P this year good correlation with tech stocks uh good correlation with Bitcoin you know if you just if you just came from Mars you look at the chart for the last year you think this is a this is a risk gplay yeah I don’t know what um if if I came from Mars what um if if the first thing that I would think about would be golden correlations there are other things to wonder about in this world um but um but I can tell you and then and and again this this might be anecdotal evidence but but but of course um um if if people approach me they they want to hear my my view on gold and I can tell you if I tell them that that gold is actually pretty cheap at these price levels because of a you know at an inflation adjusted basis uh gold is still far away from from its all-time highs yeah silver even more so most people um kind of start ridiculing me and and most people would say okay or would ask me now is the time to sell gold and not to buy gold so um I think we’re far away from from any uh how how did Green spin say uh exuberance yeah and and you know just have a look at at at the cpf function on on on Bloomberg so so the analyst consensus by the big names on on Wall Street for 2026 the median estimate for gold is 2,000 bucks for 2028 it’s 1,700 so I don’t see too much bullishness out there for gold uh in the western world again um and that makes me pretty relaxed I have to say let’s move on to the long-term projections you’re projecting more than $4,000 right 4,400 uh 4,800 rather us by 2030 uh again that’s you know many years from now actually not not even too long what year are we oh boy that’s not even that too long from now six years from now I feel like I’m still in the mid 2000s okay well what what are the uh what are the assumptions you’re making here for the longer term forecast well you know David we were publishing that forecast um in our 2020 report when we made a a long-term outlook for for this decade and and we said it it could be a a golden decade actually uh and remember where the price of gold was trading in the year 2020 um so so we set $4,800 US based on our monetary model um that we uh explained you know at length in the 2020 um uh report um and you know 4,800 bucks that sounds like quite a lot but but that’s annualized from now until the year 2030 that’s 12% um and I think that that isn’t really outrageous now I think one one important thing David um if you remember the um like the previous um big bull market um you know you remember the great financial crisis um you were we already in the market if I may ask during that time where the 2008 2008 2009 I I was I was in high school I was playing video games I was uh young I was not participating in the markets what do you mean am I that young I’m old now 2008 was a long time ago Ronald no because you’re you’re you’re so smart and and and you know everything so so I thought you you um You probably have been in the market already back then anyway um I was looking at um I was look we were looking at uh uh paper trading in school and uh uh a funny story we had an assignment uh where we had uh one month to do whatever we wanted with $10,000 of virtual money so I I had no idea what the stock market was so I called one of my mother’s friends who’s a stock broker I said what should we do for what month he says well maybe you should buy something that’s most volatile or something that is very volatile and actually what we did was we just bought gold uh oil futures for one month I don’t think we did very well uh this was 2008 so we did not do [Laughter] well anyway that was uh that was my experience with the markets if you want if you ask me no but if if we go back to that time um actually I think that that gold um broke uh a thousand bucks which was the the big psychological um um um barrier um in March 2008 when be Stern went down um so so actually between January 2008 and September 2009 gold was flirting with this $1,000 level um and then we’ve seen we’ve seen the breakout and and and actually it took us two years to almost double so we were consolidating for for for for two years then the big breakout and then the price of gold doubled to 1920 in um uh in in summer 20 11 now if we if we compare it to the current picture um let’s not forget that gold was flirting with that $2,000 level for almost four years so that was like a pretty pretty pretty long and and and and you know um cumbersome um um um um consolidation that we saw now we broke about that and I think um could we see gold doubling uh over the course of the next two or three years hell yes definitely um again our forecast is 4,800 bucks at the end of this decade but you know how how those models work but and therefore you know if it’s going to be 4,800 or 4,500 or 5,000 I think what really counts is that we’re in a bull market and and I said at the beginning um it is classic early bull market action um and if we compare uh and therefore I I just really enjoy traveling to to to emerging markets and I will go to Saudi Arabia in January I will be in China again I I was in Dubai um um last fall Dubai is responsible for 25% of of global gold trade nowadays so if you compare the mentality the gold mentality Western World versus Emerging Markets I think this is really this really adds to the to your insights and or let’s say understanding of the gold market because those people in China in India um in in in the mid East for them gold is just something natural that they save they they don’t um they don’t really invest or trade in in in in Gold they just you know they just save in gold for them topics like dollarization which has you know has become a topic in the western world as well that’s just you know just normal to talk about if if you’re in in in in Dubai um or or in Saudi Arabia I mean I mean it’s going to happen at some point yeah um and I think therefore this makes makes me pretty pretty relaxed regarding gold going forward well let’s finish off on another asset Bitcoin so you have in your 6040 portfolio 5% allocation to bitcoin you know I was just thinking if I were to repeat that same High School exercise one month allocation to something it’ll probably be something in the crypto space I don’t even I I I don’t even think Bitcoin is volatile enough but anyway I digress my question is do you think the 5% allocation will increase or decrease or change in the future for you uh it could increase um I think that you know we we started um writing about Bitcoin I think eight years ago in the goldb trust report we’ve got two funds that actually combine gold with Bitcoin um we got lots of hate both from the Bitcoin world and also from the gold world it’s gold is super emotional um and Bitcoin is also extreme extremely emotional there’s no gray area there’s just yes or no there’s nothing in between you know from my point of view both are just very very hard uh monetary assets um one is a teenager and the other one is around for 5,000 years gold markets cap is 15 trillion Bitcoin is 1.3 trillion um I think you know for both have a very very high stock to flow ratio and for for Bitcoin for example 95% uh of all Bitcoin is already mined and uh by 2023 99% of all Bitcoin will already uh be Min so we’re seeing absolute scarcity in Bitcoin um and therefore I think that you know in a in a world where you know monetary inflation very high debt uh and uh Financial repression geopolitical um um issues going on I just think that you want to own some some scarce assets um with very very low inflation and the one is you know is is being um influenced by by by the code and the other one um by geology and and and and Mining and I think there’s there’s no reason um to not combine those two assets and and to be that emotional and I think that you know those those emotions um in investing they they’re they’re probably not the best um how do you say um uh uh um being emotional is not something that that you want to to be as a prudent investor so I like gold I I like Bitcoin very much I think that that over the course of the next couple of years Bitcoin will probably outperform uh gold um the ETFs um have been a huge milestone um many people are a little bit disappointed by the performance of Bitcoin recently um I just think that um you know after the halfings um 6 to 18 month um after the halfing um this is really the sweet spot for Bitcoin so so so this is still uh that’s going to happen um or or start basically in fall and yeah therefore I I as I’ve said in the previous interview you can have like a uh um a big SUV like a a Range Rover or whatever in your in in in in in your in your driveway but also ducatti motorcycle um you know why not own both uh you’ll get hate from the Ducati crowd for saying that probably comparing us to a l probably from the from the Holly Davids crowd yeah the H Angels G to visit final question do you ever see a day where Western central banks I’m not talking about El Salvador I’m talking about Western central banks would adopt gold and take it in the reserve you know I spoke to some ex- Central Bankers the attitude is known no no we will not do that but you know they were in the previous generation what about the future you mean adding adding Bitcoin not gold yeah did I say gold that’s what I meant yeah adding Bitcoin adding Bitcoin yes I think we’re seeing this this this adoption already happening in the in the corporate space um and the next big milestone would obviously be in the Central Bank space but that’s that’s not going to happen in the next you know two three four years probably and and it will will start with you know rather small countries um you know El Salvador perhaps Argentina I don’t know um but I don’t think that uh that the dutche bundes bank uh will start buying Bitcoin uh or the or the Swiss National Bank uh very very soon but at some point definitely yes okay thank you very much Ronald very thorough update on uh on the world situation and gold where can we learn more about your work thanks David that was fun um yeah well you know you can download our in gold with trust report it’s it’s 420 pages so it’s it’s it’s a long read but I we’re getting tremendous feedback from all over the globe and we’re already working on the 25 report 2025 report uh you can download it totally for free on our web page inold with trust. report um there’s also a compact version uh which is still 40 pages uh we’ve got monthly chart books on gold that’s the Gold Compass uh we just put out um our in Gold W trust special for the Independence Day in the United States showing the purchasing power of gold measured in gasoline um you know um gold protects your purchasing power not only um in in gasoline but also we talked about the gold beer ratio for example at the October Fest um so so we’ve got all sorts of different Publications um you can download everything totally free of charge on ingold with trust. report um I’m pretty active on Twitter um my handle is at Ron and if you want to learn more about our investment solution our investment funds our wealth management it’s incrementum doli I just want to say if I came from Mars this would be the top of my reading list just to learn about the world thank you very much D appreciate it so uh yes please do check out uh englo trust report links down below Ronald good to see you and uh better luck next time for Austria in the uh Euro uh and uh we’ll speak again soon the next one next big tournament is going to be the World Cup 2026 in Canada the US and yeah and Mexico so uh I’ll be there okay yeah please thanks lot David byebye

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Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Managing Partner of Incrementum AG, discusses the latest price predictions made in the 2024 edition of the “In Gold We Trust” report.

Watch Ronald’s last interview with me: https://youtu.be/bKYpnp7Cmmg?si=beuZXSmJYq0-QhNW

*This video was recorded on July 2, 2024

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0:00 – Intro
1:40 – Gold price outlook
9:40 – Gold vs. bonds
14:40 – Gold vs. inflation
17:40 – Optimal portfolio allocation
25:25 – Gold miners
27:40 – Chinese demand of gold
31:30- BIS warns of debt crisis
34:20 – Yen
36:00 – Gold vs. risk-on assets
38:20 – $4,800 gold by 2030
44:20 – Bitcoin

#economy #investing #gold