The only catalyst we need for bitcoin is time, says Anthony Pompliano

The only catalyst we need for bitcoin is time, says Anthony Pompliano

Bitcoin Rising on fed share Po’s comment to the Senate Banking Committee yesterday outlining risks of keeping uh rates higher for longer join us now Anthony Pompano professional Capital Management CEO kind of doing what you have always said is possible at at any time and that those are large moves up and down yeah I think we’re getting down into the 4S or this is it already no I I mean look prices go down because there’s more sellers than buyers obviously um and the question is who’s selling and there’s really two main culprits at the moment uh the German government has about 50,000 Bitcoin that they seize from a pirating website uh and they’ve been trying to offload it U what’s interesting about it if you look at the onchain data is they’re basically going to as many exchanges as they can and trying to sell um and so they’re about halfway through that right now it’s about $25 billion dollars uh they’ve sold about a billion and a half or so um and then there’s also the mount gox Bitcoin that’s been distributed and so I think people more so are scared hey if there’s billions of dollars being distributed back are these people who have been illiquid for years just going to sell it what’s really interesting about this is Bitcoin is still very illiquid and so there’s most of the Bitcoin that is out there being held by people that have a long-term View and so when a seller shows up with just a couple billion of dollars the price will go down now if I told you someone was going to come sell billions of dollars and the price was only going to go down to $55,000 or so that’s actually pretty bullish right I I think that people are looking at this and saying hey look Bitcoin is still pretty healthy how illiquid do you think the market is I mean we always talk about the the whales who have the wallets that been sitting there forever since the Inception of Bitcoin but how do you how big do you think it is at this point at at the start of this year uh the amount of Bitcoin that had not moved in over a year was over 70% um% so very high now as the price has risen some of that has started to get distributed which what you would expect in a bull market and so really the question right now is basically you know how strong are those hands and will they Outlast the German government will they Outlast these you know Mount gox distributions and so my expectation is as we get further into the bull market that number will come back down towards 50 55% but still at least half of the bitco Point probably is being held by people who have a 10 plus year time Horizon didn’t it go up because ETFs had to do yeah and and by the the incremental amount that was the same thing that you’re talking about now there wasn’t enough to buy to go into the ETF so then it just slips right around when there is more and but the ETFs are already satiated yeah I I think that there’s a huge uh part of like Bitcoin is a free market asset and so naturally when an ETF gets approved there’s a bunch of people who are very excited the media is talking about people rush you needed to buy Bitcoin to go into the ETFs right and there weren’t that many for sale correct and so about 80% of those flows now after people have analyze it appear to be retail not actual institutions going in yet and so I’ve talked to a lot of folks who run Ras or or large institutions and it takes a while for them to go through their investment process underwrite the risk approve and then allocate and so my expectation is kind of the second half of this year maybe you know end of Q3 beginning of Q4 we’ll start to see a lot more of the institutional flows uh into those ETFs um and also the basis trade there was a lot of people who were going long Bitcoin short the Futures uh and as that spread has come down less and less people are saying hey I should go put that trade on and so it’s just a very Dynamic Market with a lot of inputs and you know trying to stay on top of it uh I still think bitcoin’s got a very good future ahead of it so you got Congress they they’re trying to do things right for clarity and you’ve got a Biden Trump election uh theoretically I don’t know uh at this point um how does that factor into the regulatory environment with Bitcoin right now is it positive or negative Donald Trump is position self as a pro Bitcoin Pro crypto candidate and look you know I actually think that uh if you watch his public comments he has followed pretty much the exact thought process and journey that most bitcoiners follow at first you hear about you’re like there’s no way this could be real this is a scan there’s probably criminals using this Etc then you get interested then it’s all about price and then eventually get convinced of sound money principles and kind of the the other ethos around it now what I do see is Democrats are kind of caught in between two things right because on one hand you don’t want to seed the crypto and Bitcoin point to the Republicans uh but also you have a number of people in the Democratic faction that are saying look we don’t like this stuff we actually want to clamp down on it and so what you’re getting is a bifurcation from what I can see where uh there’s some breaking of you know the party lines and uh ultimately I think that people for decades have been voting for their wallet Bitcoin and crypto is just the latest version of that and so when they go into that Ballot Box in November they’re going to look for a pro crypto or Pro Bitcoin uh candidate whether it’s at the presidential level uh or state um you know Senate Congress Etc will that be enough to be a catalyst for Bitcoin if Donald Trump were elected a lot of bitcoiners probably won’t like this answer but I actually think the only thing we need as a catalyst for Bitcoin is time uh one of these interesting things about if you go and look through all these different Cycles The Summer’s just slow people are doing stuff people are traveling you know they’re not sitting in front of their computer watching the chart and so uh when we get into September and Beyond I think that’s just enough to get the uh price to going back up there we’re still with just the store value though that’s enough for you right now we’re still not sending it to relatives over in Ukraine or something again maybe not a popular answer but uh Bitcoin definitely has won the store of value you know in the crypto asset class uh but stable coins are winning the medium of exchange and I think that um if you look at the data stable coins now do just as much volume as visa and ultimately people want an asset that if they go and they spend it or they send it to a friend it’s not going to be worth two three 4X more in the future right and so dollars they believe are going to actually be worth less in the future and so it makes sense they want to spend the dollars on a blockchain uh and then hold Bitcoin you don’t want to buy that pizza instead of a Bugatti right it’s better to use dollars and hold your Bitcoin than it is to uh do the opposite

Anthony Pompliano, Professional Capital Management CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss bitcoin’s recent volatile run, impact of the 2024 election on the cryptocurrency, price outlook, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/42d859g

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