Praying for one more gap down tomorrow, then buying the dip ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
TrillTron on
Jenson forgot to wear his leather jacket today
ghosthitboxes on
Made money on UAL puts in afterhours timing the bottom before it rebounded woop woop. Hopefully TSMC calls and Netflix puts hit tmrw
ADynes on
So I’m holding KHC that’s up a lot this week (kicking myself for not having more) and bought VTI, HIMS, and ULTA all at discounts today. Debated qqq calls at close but wussed out. Wish I bought some 560c for next week also but oh well.
Up $600 on the day which looking around I should be pretty happy with.
Samjabr on
I know most of the people in here are young and more likely to support Biden, but you can’t be so stupid as to think Trumps random babbling about Taiwan is more relevant to what happened to semis than the report that the Biden admin is literally going to use (foreign direct product rule/FDPR) to prevent foreign manufacturers from selling to China. Why the F do you think ASML beat earnings, was up in the European market, and immediately tanked after that specific news – The same news literally dragged down Japanese semis.
Trump’s Taiwan Comments Caused a Selloff in Chips. The Real Risk Is a Global Depression.
No Hyperbole. Former President Donald Trump is spooking investors with his latest comments about Taiwan. While chip stocks took the brunt of the pain on Wednesday, investors need to recognize that the entire global economy — not just chips — could crumble if Taiwan’s security situation deteriorates significantly.
The worries escalated Wednesday after Trump declined to provide assurances that the U.S. would protect Taiwan against Chinese aggression if he’s elected president.
“They did take about 100% of our chip business,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview published on Tuesday. “Taiwan should pay us for defense.”
“I wouldn’t feel so secure right now if I were them,” he added.
China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that it intends to unify with the mainland. Its leadership could interpret Trump’s statements to mean the U.S. wouldn’t be resolute in providing support to Taiwan, thus lowering the level of deterrence against an invasion or blockade of the island.
Chip stocks generally fell hard on Wednesday in the wake of the comments. American depositary shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world’s largest maker of advanced hips, fell 8.0% on the day.
Meanwhile, shares of major TSMC customers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Qualcomm, were all down over 6%. Intel was the one stock bucking the trend as it is competes with TSMC and has U.S.-based fabs.
Given that the S&P 500 was only down about 1.4% on the day, investors are generally focused on the Taiwan-based risk to semiconductors. But the reality is that if Taiwan falls, it would be dire for every industry. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said last October that a blockade of Taiwan, even for a few weeks, would bring the global economy to a halt.
It’s hard to overstate Taiwan’s importance to the supply chain. About 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, including the main processors inside mobile phones, AI GPUs, and PCs, are made in Taiwan by TSMC. Other TSMC manufactured chips are required ingredients in household appliances, automobiles, data center servers, and defense systems.
A military conflict over Taiwan could shut down all of TSMC’s factories given that they require service and parts from Western suppliers to maintain production.
If the U.S. lost access to Taiwan’s chip-making capacity, consumers wouldn’t struggle to purchase electronics and other products essential for modern living. Corporate computer systems would falter without replacement parts. Overall, the disruptions would be far worse than what we saw from chip shortages during the peak of Covid.
The U.S. has tried to prepare for the loss of Taiwan chips. The Chips Act, bipartisan legislation passed in 2022, is helping to bring some chip manufacturing back to the U.S. But the projects under development are too small in number to make up for Taiwan’s capacity.
In March, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo vowed the U.S. would reach a 20% global share of advanced chip manufacturing by 2030, from basically nothing today. That target is likely to be a best-case scenario, and even then, the other 80% of capacity would still be at risk.
There’s no way to know if Trump’s latest comments are political bluster or the framework of future policy. But risking a full blown depression, no matter how small the probability, is something every executive, every investor, and every American needs to be thinking about right now.
This Week in Barron’s Tech
ThatOneDrunkUncle on
Is anyone here really good at shooting ears from ~150 yards? I have an idea
wwhammyyy on
some people are saying u/VisualMod was the real shooter and missed because he doesn’t have hands
solidsneeze on
I did my duty and bought a shit ton
Striced47 on
Anyone getting in JNJ
Low_Moose_6829 on
Who else got cooked after IWM ran like crazy and dipped hoping it would V again ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)
spac420 on
onnn the other hand…if Sleepy drops out, might be some good premium available
jmc774 on
When I start losing money because of 🥠I become a die hard fucking democrat ![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)
InIce1234 on
# Coffin Dance back on the menu.
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)
ballzstreetwets on
Hmm interesting 🤔
I-ProGamer-I on
Guys. Serious question: how do you play options in an assumed recovery scenario? Buy discounted ITM calls or even cheaper OTM calls?
EnginrA on
Uh oh I got the fiber farts
BigBoiBenisBlueBalls on
Biden considering dropping out of a medical condition emerged. How tf is one going to magically appear before November
Modelminorityperson on
If Biden drops out we may get a pump otherwise big red gap down on the table
behindcl0seddrs on
I’d like to sincerely apologize to TSM bulls for buying calls today. I’d post my loss porn now but it hasn’t happened yet.
pm-me-nice-pics on
Why tf are you guys writing 6 paragraph comments in an adderall addict sub that can barely read
woooooottt on
NVDA rebound to 135 by Friday or I become a dividender
EmuIntrepid7374 on
What if dead cat don’t bounce 🤔
Far-Requirement9180 on
Damn Chasdaq erased nearly one month worth of pump in a single day ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
new-chris on
AI is going to drive so much fucking semi spending even mango man can’t stop it.
sockalicious on
I would move Gina Raimondo from Commerce over to the Veteran’s Administration.
Just so I could refer to her as VA Gina.
Jelly__Rogers on
I always thought an assassin would be some mission impossible ninja with crazy tech and mile away marksmanship that could get in and out faster than batman.
Turns out it can be just a disgruntled 20 year old with a gun from Walmart.
Sloppy4Burnetts on
Why is VTI trending
Impressive_Panic1710 on
Nvidia to 131 or I become a dividend holder
Global-Nerve on
I still don’t get how trump saying that about Taiwan affected the market he’s not even president yet and plus in pretty sure someone needs to remind him all the si shit is over there then he will be nvm like the others times he just blabs and everyone panics everyone take your fucken Xanax and chill the fuck out
Comfortable_City7064 on
Has TSM earnings been released yet?
Kirko_Cousins on
If your Puts are in the money clap your hands. đź‘Ź đź‘Ź
SQQQ 9/20 $8c up 50%
ScruffyBelievesInGME on
Has Trump simmered down or is he still on a mission to leave me homeless?
Far_Journalist8110 on
I need a 2 percent day tomorrow
davidbigham on
God dam it, u regards kept saying TSM earning is after market.
Bro, i even went to their website and check
TSMC Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference will be held on Thursday, July 18, 2024, at 14:00 Taiwan time/ 2:00Â Eastern Time.
The result will be out when u wake up . Never trust the earning post on WSB ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
37 Comments
Praying for one more gap down tomorrow, then buying the dip ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
Jenson forgot to wear his leather jacket today
Made money on UAL puts in afterhours timing the bottom before it rebounded woop woop. Hopefully TSMC calls and Netflix puts hit tmrw
So I’m holding KHC that’s up a lot this week (kicking myself for not having more) and bought VTI, HIMS, and ULTA all at discounts today. Debated qqq calls at close but wussed out. Wish I bought some 560c for next week also but oh well.
Up $600 on the day which looking around I should be pretty happy with.
I know most of the people in here are young and more likely to support Biden, but you can’t be so stupid as to think Trumps random babbling about Taiwan is more relevant to what happened to semis than the report that the Biden admin is literally going to use (foreign direct product rule/FDPR) to prevent foreign manufacturers from selling to China. Why the F do you think ASML beat earnings, was up in the European market, and immediately tanked after that specific news – The same news literally dragged down Japanese semis.
[Tokyo Electron Leads Japan Tech Selloff on China Chip Curb Fears (yahoo.com)](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tokyo-electron-leads-japan-tech-043937055.html)
[ASML shares under pressure as U.S. reportedly considers new export controls – MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asml-shares-under-pressure-as-u-s-reportedly-considers-new-export-controls-e2e63010)
Stop drinking so much Kool-Aid. The smarter you are, the better you trade (then again, it’s WSB)
those not buying NYCB right now, what are you doing
![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787)![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787)![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787)
Buy the fucking dip, right?
–
–
Right!?
Donald clown Trump strikes
Trump’s Taiwan Comments Caused a Selloff in Chips. The Real Risk Is a Global Depression.
No Hyperbole. Former President Donald Trump is spooking investors with his latest comments about Taiwan. While chip stocks took the brunt of the pain on Wednesday, investors need to recognize that the entire global economy — not just chips — could crumble if Taiwan’s security situation deteriorates significantly.
The worries escalated Wednesday after Trump declined to provide assurances that the U.S. would protect Taiwan against Chinese aggression if he’s elected president.
“They did take about 100% of our chip business,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview published on Tuesday. “Taiwan should pay us for defense.”
“I wouldn’t feel so secure right now if I were them,” he added.
China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that it intends to unify with the mainland. Its leadership could interpret Trump’s statements to mean the U.S. wouldn’t be resolute in providing support to Taiwan, thus lowering the level of deterrence against an invasion or blockade of the island.
Chip stocks generally fell hard on Wednesday in the wake of the comments. American depositary shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world’s largest maker of advanced hips, fell 8.0% on the day.
Meanwhile, shares of major TSMC customers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Qualcomm, were all down over 6%. Intel was the one stock bucking the trend as it is competes with TSMC and has U.S.-based fabs.
Given that the S&P 500 was only down about 1.4% on the day, investors are generally focused on the Taiwan-based risk to semiconductors. But the reality is that if Taiwan falls, it would be dire for every industry. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said last October that a blockade of Taiwan, even for a few weeks, would bring the global economy to a halt.
It’s hard to overstate Taiwan’s importance to the supply chain. About 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, including the main processors inside mobile phones, AI GPUs, and PCs, are made in Taiwan by TSMC. Other TSMC manufactured chips are required ingredients in household appliances, automobiles, data center servers, and defense systems.
A military conflict over Taiwan could shut down all of TSMC’s factories given that they require service and parts from Western suppliers to maintain production.
If the U.S. lost access to Taiwan’s chip-making capacity, consumers wouldn’t struggle to purchase electronics and other products essential for modern living. Corporate computer systems would falter without replacement parts. Overall, the disruptions would be far worse than what we saw from chip shortages during the peak of Covid.
The U.S. has tried to prepare for the loss of Taiwan chips. The Chips Act, bipartisan legislation passed in 2022, is helping to bring some chip manufacturing back to the U.S. But the projects under development are too small in number to make up for Taiwan’s capacity.
In March, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo vowed the U.S. would reach a 20% global share of advanced chip manufacturing by 2030, from basically nothing today. That target is likely to be a best-case scenario, and even then, the other 80% of capacity would still be at risk.
There’s no way to know if Trump’s latest comments are political bluster or the framework of future policy. But risking a full blown depression, no matter how small the probability, is something every executive, every investor, and every American needs to be thinking about right now.
This Week in Barron’s Tech
Is anyone here really good at shooting ears from ~150 yards? I have an idea
some people are saying u/VisualMod was the real shooter and missed because he doesn’t have hands
I did my duty and bought a shit ton
Anyone getting in JNJ
Who else got cooked after IWM ran like crazy and dipped hoping it would V again ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)
onnn the other hand…if Sleepy drops out, might be some good premium available
When I start losing money because of 🥠I become a die hard fucking democrat ![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)
# Coffin Dance back on the menu.
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)
Hmm interesting 🤔
Guys. Serious question: how do you play options in an assumed recovery scenario? Buy discounted ITM calls or even cheaper OTM calls?
Uh oh I got the fiber farts
Biden considering dropping out of a medical condition emerged. How tf is one going to magically appear before November
If Biden drops out we may get a pump otherwise big red gap down on the table
I’d like to sincerely apologize to TSM bulls for buying calls today. I’d post my loss porn now but it hasn’t happened yet.
Why tf are you guys writing 6 paragraph comments in an adderall addict sub that can barely read
NVDA rebound to 135 by Friday or I become a dividender
What if dead cat don’t bounce 🤔
Damn Chasdaq erased nearly one month worth of pump in a single day ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
AI is going to drive so much fucking semi spending even mango man can’t stop it.
I would move Gina Raimondo from Commerce over to the Veteran’s Administration.
Just so I could refer to her as VA Gina.
I always thought an assassin would be some mission impossible ninja with crazy tech and mile away marksmanship that could get in and out faster than batman.
Turns out it can be just a disgruntled 20 year old with a gun from Walmart.
Why is VTI trending
Nvidia to 131 or I become a dividend holder
I still don’t get how trump saying that about Taiwan affected the market he’s not even president yet and plus in pretty sure someone needs to remind him all the si shit is over there then he will be nvm like the others times he just blabs and everyone panics everyone take your fucken Xanax and chill the fuck out
Has TSM earnings been released yet?
If your Puts are in the money clap your hands. đź‘Ź đź‘Ź
SQQQ 9/20 $8c up 50%
Has Trump simmered down or is he still on a mission to leave me homeless?
I need a 2 percent day tomorrow
God dam it, u regards kept saying TSM earning is after market.
Bro, i even went to their website and check
TSMC Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference will be held on Thursday, July 18, 2024, at 14:00 Taiwan time/ 2:00Â Eastern Time.
The result will be out when u wake up . Never trust the earning post on WSB ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)