Crowdstrike is 20% down the last month, but you all know what happened, so, there will be much more down?

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    Posted by Tripping_Panda

    49 Comments

    1. Chef_The_Ferret on

      whichever way it goes, the upcoming loss porn posts may be unrivaled in scale.

    2. I’m afraid, this is not the right approach. First, it’s too obvious and Big Money will be waiting to squeeze the shorts – it’s just a matter of time. Second, CRWD is pretty much the only enterprise solution of this magnitude and impact. Yes, a fuck up happened but the way the company handled it suggests that it’s not likely they’ll be losing major customers because of that. I expect it get back to $350 within a month. I don’t have a position but had the options been cheaper, I’d be in calls with 45-60 days to expiration

    3. Altruistic_Royal_591 on

      Everyone at WSB seems to say shorting is a bad idea. So by that logic it should definitely be puts. Bought some Friday.
      I think a lot of people still underestimate the implication of this error

    4. Why post this now? Everyone already has shorts and puts on since Friday youre too late

    5. Trust is paramount in security and they lost all credibility. Imagine you’re making decisions on what endpoint protection service to buy, are you really going to go with Clownstrike after this?

    6. RemoteCompetitive688 on

      Implied volatility

      You have to remember what kinds of moves will be priced into the options market

    7. If the obvious play is to short it, then it’s probably the wrong play. I can’t see them losing enough clients over this to make the company worth 20% less

    8. pointme2_profits on

      If it didn’t tank Friday, what makes you think anyone cares now that the crisis is over. They aren’t going anywhere. Clearly they are a dominant worldwide player at whatever it is they do. And it was pretty obvious big money bought the dip Friday morning you missed the target on shorting it by about a week.

    9. I bought some puts for post earnings. I think the true pain won’t reflect until their forward guidance (for the short term) comes in as total crap. Stay away from shorter plays, because it’s easy for it to be manipulated. But when the guidance/sales come in as shit, there’s nowhere to hide.

      Imagine being a salesperson trying to pitch a company on Crowdstrike.

      Also, you know PANW has its salespeople going full throttle right now trying to get contracts. Pelosi is not an easy taskmaster

    10. Certain-Sandwich-694 on

      Yeah, I’ll bet you 100% once I buy some puts that it’ll start going up 😂

    11. I mean someone will have to pay for the damages that were incurred by this failure of an update, I’d say fully big damages, and it won’t be MSFT.

      I honestly can’t imagine CRWD will not go way lower, but I will definitely not bet any money on that, because I don’t have army of algos and $billions to manipulate share price whichever way it will be more profitable.

      So good luck in w/e you will decide.

    12. Riversntallbuildings on

      Go back 6 months, is still up YoY. It’ll be significant if it drops to levels over a year ago or more.

    13. For sure, the right time to short a stock is definitely after it already lost a ton in the last month and a ton from an incident. The smart money is on vacation on Fridays, so 36 hours later really are early to the party!! You may be the first to have thought about this and acted on it.

    14. All those people talking about how they were going to buy $MSFT instead of $NVDA are crying rn.

    15. I don’t see CrowdStrike failing long term because of this. This was a massive fuck up sure, but a company running software on 3 billion devices with government contracts doesn’t crumble from 1 fuck up.

      Buy the dip

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