Dear degens and regards,
Life is short; thus I better be a millionaire by 30. This is my philosophy. Now, as my 30th birthday approaches, and I am still a couple hundred thousand away from being a millionaire, it's time for me to bet a YOLO.
I'm betting $101k on Roblox ($RBLX) call options with a $42 strike price, expiring on August 2nd.
Below is why.
Background: Roblox ($RBLX) dropped as much as 30% after Q1 reporting. The reason is that the company missed revenue estimates for the June quarter and so sell-side analysts rebased their expectations for Roblox upcoming Q2 to shit. Against this depressed backdrop, in Q2, Roblox got their act together fixing some technical issues and hosting platform-wide engagement events. At the same time, out-of school time for kids arrived, and this summer more than ever they have been rushing to spend their most valuable years on earth navigating some blocked-head avatar through fictional worlds.
Evidence: As a full-time trading nerd, I am ofc mapping data from sensortower daily. And based on this, let me tell you, the grossing activity on Roblox for the past 3 months has likely never been higher. For context, out of the entire app-store universe in the U.S., in the past 3 months Roblox has consistently ranked among the top 10 applications. And Roblox is not even a iPhone app. Its played more than 70% on iPad and PC.
On the iPad app store, Roblox is currently ranking as the top one grossing app (out of all applications). A similar pattern can be observed around the globe. Name your country, Roblox will likely be leading the iPad app-store ranking on top-grossing apps. Indeed, even in Hong Kong, Roblox is #1. According to my knowledge, this has never happend before.
Expectation: I project record engagement for Roblox in Q2. In addition, I model $955 million of booking revenue based on a correlation ananlysis with sensortower data, compared to $880 million estimated by sell-side consensus. Guidance should also come in higher than expected, as record engagement trends continued trough July.
Trade: Roblox does not trade sideways on earnings. This crazy-ass stock just doesn't know how. In the past 12 quarters, the averge absolute post-earning price move was 12-15%, with about 50%/50% up vs down big. This time, the trends for Roblox are clearly positive and so a double-digit percentage up move it should be. This is why I am betting $100k on RBLX Call options, with strike $42 and expiration August 2nd. Positions below.
Just to be clear, I am gambling, obviously. But in my years of trading, snowballing $20k to >$700k, I have never seen an opportunity so juicy, an opportunity that made me so hard, as this RBLX bet.
This is just my personal adventure, not financial advice.
Godspeed. I love y'all!
Roblox $101k Earnings YOLO: Its Either Bankruptcy Or Millionaire At 30 ($RBLX)
byu/Dapper-Math-9852 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Dapper-Math-9852
29 Comments
I am with you, Sir, betting my lunch money on this
I just threw $20 at this, we’re in it together now. Your pain will be my pain or we will go down in history after splitting the profits 
Good luck big bro may you return a millionaire and a legend .
!remindme 2 days
I’ll buy a put to help you out, should def skyrocket after that
okay, i am convinced. Buying calls at open
I’m in for 1k. Why not.
You son of a bitch, I’m in with my entire portfolio of 13 dollars
Just bought some, meet ya behind the Wendy’s dumpster
Elon took another massive shit in my mouth with these TSLA earnings, might as well throw in the last bit with you 
Bankruptcy then?
Overconfidence is a fast and furious killer
Jeez. You should have bought in the money and far expiration date, at least with such a big amount of capital. I think this $100K is nothing to you. it doesn’t make any difference in your life. Cats can do better trading than you!!!!
Okay I try to help you and bought some calls than later when they look bad I will buy puts so it can skyrocket when I panic sell everything for a loss 
!RemindMe 5 days
Got kids, robux is crack to them.
Bullish
“Roblox’s increasing penetration in user base between nine and 12 years holds promise. ” 
!remindme 3 days
I will join you and buy calls with my entire account
(37 bucks)
I can only conclude that you are rich. YOLO on META and RBLX. Hope the best for you. I can only afford few hundreds call to support u.
Earning beats expectations stock goes down 😅
Is it already priced in?
>in the past 3 months Roblox has consistently ranked among the top 10 applications. And Roblox is not even a iPhone app. Its played more than 70% on iPad and PC.
>On the iPad app store, Roblox is currently ranking as the top one grossing app (out of all applications). A similar pattern can be observed around the globe. Name your country, Roblox will likely be leading the iPad app-store ranking on top-grossing apps.
Genuine questions: How does that compare to Q1 though? If it was always ranking that high and they still missed on Q1, then it’s not necessarily a bullish signal for Q2. We need to see what the qoq change is not just the absolute performance in Q2 because it doesn’t tell us much about the results from their initiatives.
Likewise, how much of the data you’ve looked at is actually from Q2 vs July? If most of the ramp up in activity was at the end of Q2 or even July, you may not see the juicy numbers come in until Q3.
!remindme 5 days.
!RemindMe 5 days
Always amazes me the amount of money people will throw at options and not even throw 10% to a hedge play.
Good luck!
Doesn’t this company keep crashing it’s stock?
Hmmm. Company fell off a cliff Q1, surely they’ll rocket off in Q2.
I’d flip those call into puts if I were you
You know about IV right?