An NVDA Price History Lesson.

^{This post is purely observational/technical, no fundamentals, so take that as you will.}

“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain.

Cringe quote aside, I wanted to make this post to prove a point that NVDA bulls are freaking out for nothing (…yet) and to explain a little bit of what has happened in the past regarding NVDA's price action before earnings and to give some insight for what could occur from here up until their earnings report is released on Aug. 28, 2024. For that we'll have to go back to the past, all the way to… four months ago.

We all know NVDA has had an insane year with a 125% gain YTD, but it hasn't gotten here by going up in a straight line (even though it may feel like it) and people already seem to be forgetting what happened leading up to their Q1 earnings in May, so please allow me to remind you. March 8th, 2024 was both a glorious day for some NVestors (sorry) and horrifying for others. NVDA closed the previous day(3/7) at $92.66, then opened 3/8 at $95.14(+2.67%). As the morning progressed, euphoria was high, and eventually NVDA pumped to $97.40 at it's peak(now a 5.1% increase from prev close). What occurred almost immediately after was an intense fall from grace as the stock price fell all the way down to $86.51 within two hours of it reaching its peak (-11.1% intra-day). This was the first top for this quarter. Two weeks later on 3/25 we were already testing the high again at $96.77 before once again trickling down(second top of the quarter).

Then came April. WW3 was FOR SURE happening between Iran and Israel, chips were losing momentum, and earnings were disappointing ^{(calls on VIX}). People were starting to wonder if NVDA's earnings were actually going to be as amazing as everyone had hoped. Worst to come, (NV)D-day (i'm really sorry) was just around the corner. April 19, 2024: SMCI's earnings report is approaching, and in previous quarters they would usually release preliminary earnings ahead of the actual report… but this time they opted not to. Panic. "Their report must be horrible", "AI doesn't make money", so on, so forth. NVDA dropped in sympathy from $84.66 prev close to $75.61 at its trough intra-day(-10.6%). This was the bottom of this quarter.

$97.40 to $75.61 from peak to trough in just 42 days. a -22.3% correction, all occurring within Q1.

Fast forward to this quarter. Coming off of a blowout earnings, euphoria was once again fueling everyone and their Uber driver to buy NVDA stock. We took this sucker from $102.03 post earnings to it's peak at $140.76. June 20th, 2024 was both a glorious day for some NVestors (sorry) and horrifying for others… wait hold on. This seems familiar. On this day NVDA fell from it's peak at $140.76 to $129.52(-8% intra-day). This was the first top for this quarter. Three\* weeks later on 7/11 we were already testing the high again at $136.15 before once again trickling down(second top of the quarter). This quarter's bottom so far is sitting at $106.30 that occurred last Thursday 7/25 before deep V'ing back up to to being ~$112 which was basically flat on the day.

$140.76 to $106.30 from peak to trough in just 35 days. a -24.4% correction, all occurring within Q2… so far.

https://preview.redd.it/axdtcsdb4mfd1.png?width=1454&format=png&auto=webp&s=69b7a76b2898dc2009d104ae2c5d3692096328e7

If it isn't obvious these events intra-quarter are practically parallels, but there are some differences of course.

This quarter we have:

• 100% Priced in rate cut in September, whereas before it was more speculative on when we'd get a cut, if at all.
• With that^, small caps are being rotated into.
• The Election getting closer and historic events occurring leading up to the election(Trump shot, Kamala Replacing Biden, etc.)
• Both Presidential Nominees/Administrations commenting on the geopolitical climate between Taiwan and China.
• Nancy Bought.
• NVDA at historically low volume as I've laid out in this post from 7/17 if you want to read: NVDA's volume in the past 2 days have been at a near 2.5 year low with the exception of July 3, 2023.
• Arguably stronger NVDA selloffs within this quarter; the 6/20 and 7/11 dates mentioned were both deep, aggressive selloffs sitting at -8% and -6.6% intra-day changes respectively whereas on 3/25 that sell off started off more slowly.
• Jensen making Uninformative Sells of 240,000 shares starting in June and continuing to every other day in July.
• AI fatigue now that everyone on Wall Street had their eyes on NVDA for the entire first half of the year.

This weeks mega-cap tech earnings also aren't accounted for yet and could absolutely affect NVDA negatively or positively, so we will have to wait and see on that one.

All that being said, nothing is guaranteed of course. This time it could be different and we could continue gapping down here and not even recover for quite some time, but I'm just trying to outline that we aren't too deep in the trenches yet. There needs to be more evidence of further selloffs before we have to give up hope that NVDA could ever recover before August earnings, but based on just this year's price action alone we're at a tipping point of either breaking down past a point of no return on NVDA or, similarly to last quarter, we've already seen the bottom for this quarter and we begin the gap up leading into NVDA earnings on 8/28. This week is an absolutely crucial moment for NVDA's trajectory leading into earnings.

My Copium: NVDA 10 contracts of 9/20 140c, avg cost: $6.75 currently $2.55, -$4,195 return.