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    The Bulls Are Delusional

    The bulls are delusional. The fundamental reason why the market has been mostly going straight up in the past year is because the economy, in aggregate, has been doing very well. Data just came out suggesting that this might be coming to an end. This is not just a fart in the wind or a drop because Powell said something with the wrong tone of voice. It's a fundamental catalyst that will actually impact things. If the data is wrong, then sure, we might go up more. However, people that actually manage money will not ignore deteriorating economic data. They will sell stocks in order to try to time the market. If you're dollar cost averaging, then good for you, but the majority of people here (and on wallstreet) are trying to time the markets to speed up the process of making money. And you don't make money by buying a 5% dip after a 40% rally if you believe that a recession might be coming.

    People have been leveraging like crazy and are going through the 5 stages of grief now that the market went against them. Every time that someone complains that they are down on Nvidia, the most upvoted comment under it is "don't worry bro, just hold because it will be at $180 in 6 months". Anecdotally, it seems like everyone's uncle and inheritor of money is all-in on AI. For it to go even higher, someone has to be buying at higher prices. It also has to start making some serious money for the companies who are spending tens of billion of dollars on it. So far, Microsoft and Google are struggling to monetize it relative to the expectations that were being priced in.

    We haven't had a recession since 2008. Covid doesn't count. The fed raised rates and the economy didn't give two shits. If the fed lowers rates, why is the economy magically expected to get better immediately? These are serious concerns and if you think buying the "dip" right now is a no-brainer move, then you have no brain. We were at all-time highs 3 weeks ago and deteriorating economic data doesn't flip overnight. Neither do the concerns about it. These last couple of weeks have laid out very important information about what the market as a whole cares about and will rally or crash because of. Lots of people seem to be ignoring this and sticking their head in the sand. Good luck.

    Edit: From the hundred or so comments that disagree with me, here's a summary of the sentiment. People think that a deteriorating economy is bullish because the fed will cut rates faster. They think the fed and government will pump money into the economy to keep it going and that's bullish. While I don't disagree with that, I also think that this is a poor argument to buy the dip at nearly an all-time high, especially if you're hoping for quick profits. Stocks will eventually go up simply because the value of the dollar will continue to get inflated away, but you can spend years holding the bag and being in the red. People will try to avoid this and sell their stocks to buy at a lower price later on. If a recession actually occurs, there will be lots of selling soon. Also, I'm not necessarily predicting a recession, I'm making a simple observation of the data and how the market has been reacting to it. For a while, the market has been ignoring bad data and rallying on rate-cut optimism. It is now doing the opposite. This is a very important observation if you want to make predictions.

    The Bulls Are Delusional
    byu/pareofdocks inwallstreetbets



    Posted by pareofdocks

    View 46 Comments

    46 Comments

    2. nazipelosi on

      Gonna buy 0dte puts on NVDA for earnings. I’m Spanish. I was born to kill bulls.

    4. MrBlacktheJester on

      Was planning on starting investing next Monday. Guess I can go fuck myself.

    5. Invest0rnoob1 on

      I think Nvidia earnings will tell us what type of market we’re in, Nvidia is the market leader.

    9. lostredditorlurking on

      The Fed literally hope for an increase in unemployment so they can start cutting rates. So Idk why you guys are acting as if the Fed are caught with their pants down lol.

      This is literally what Jpow wants to achieve.

    11. Infinite-Pomelo-7538 on

      Your first paragraph basically says, “it goes down, unless it goes up.”
      So… great job!

    14. HibbleDeBop on

      Money is going to move out of stocks in favor of bonds due to increased interest rate speculation. Rates will fall in the next 6 months. Stocks will then go up. Simple as.

    15. BlindSquirrelCapital on

      Estimated earnings growth next year are projected at 15%. The 10 year yield is dropping dramatically as economic conditions worsen. Do you want to rely on the bond market or the equity market projections on earnings to read the tea leaves? I am leaning towards the former.

      Edit:

      Last part was supposed to be former rather than latter. I think the bond market is telling us something.

    17. Syab_of_Caltrops on

      What data? You realize if profits hold, GDP holds, and unemployment goes up, that’s bullish, right?

      Traders/investors – real ones, not regards – don’t give a fuck if Danny can’t get a job, as long as the bottom line is up. Add on some rate cuts, and that’s gravy.

      Stocks dove because: blow off from massive rally and bond rotation. Period. If bers think the Market’s crashing because Danny or Dona can’t find a job, they’re the ones who are delusional.

    19. One_Psychology_6500 on

      We had a technical recession last year.

      And there are a lot of bears too. Don’t listen to them tho. They don’t have any money.

    22. brainfreeze3 on

      Guys it’s been a while since we’ve had a recession if you don’t count the last one

    23. Hamachiman on

      You’re 100% right. That said, market cycles could not occur unless bulls were delusional enough to push valuations to extremes. So: Thank you delusional bulls. Your youth and naĂŻvetĂ© are paving the way for the rest of us to get a generational buying opportunity!

    25. Ivegotworms1 on

      See bears never learn their lesson. Even in hindsight, they refuse to accept they were wrong. If the market is 20% up a year from now it’s not OP that is wrong, it’s the market. It’s the same situation 2 years ago where bears were screaming about a recession and they sit out and lose out on a 50%+ move up. Those same bears will rationalize it a million different ways but the point is they were wrong.

      Earnings have been good, inflation has been lowering, the labor market loosening up… all good things. Did the market get overextended? Maybe. Are all indicators pointing to a steep recession? Absolutely not. Post your positions or get the fuck out.

    28. Vegetable-Balance-53 on

      Just a reminder, there is a historic amount of money on the sidelines in money market accounts. When rates go down, where does that money go? 

    31. Srnkanator on

      I live in a bubble. You can try to pop it, but all you have is a needle.

      I can always blow another bubble.

    32. CrossDeSolo on

      Can the user report try to aggregate positions from op comment history with ai?  I’m tired of reading wendy employee regard takes

    33. Specific_Concern649 on

      The only delusional one is OP. Going to laugh like a mad man when next week is green and his caravan short goes tits up.

    34. POpportunity6336 on

      You know what’s delusional and paranoia? Being bearish when most companies make actual money.

    35. mikec1115 on

      Covid doesn’t count???? Probably the biggest impact to our supply chain and economy and you say it doesn’t count???

    37. Medium_Grand_8182 on

      Good post. Market had priced in rate cuts and now is pricing in what is come after the rate cuts.

    38. Cleargummybear2 on

      We’ve been hearing about how all the data show us on the edge of the cliff for six years.

    39. PlaysWthSquirrels on

      Bears are dancing like the latest economic data was apocalyptic. The Feds goal was to fight inflation and soften the labor market, and that’s what’s happening. And we still added jobs, just less than expected. Y’all acting like 4.3% unemployment means the sky is falling. 

    43. lostfinancialsoul on

      if covid doesnt count, if 2022 doesn’t count, then we are never in a recession again per the definition.

      post the short position

    44. Ok-Attorney7115 on

      Let’s see what happens. Next week the Wall Street monkeys 🐒 will be braying about the upcoming bullish rate cuts

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