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    economy sucks, spy 600 🚀


    Anyone else sick of pretending the market is crashing because of some "data…" some "jobs numbers"

    We've known for months the eco is on its knees & the banks are leveraged to the tits. We ditched fund analysis years ago at this point. We're just printing (but with Al.) People can say "CPI this GDP that" but at the end of the day next week everyone's gonna wake up, take a sip of coffee, get on their laptops and start pumping again like nothing happened. We're just exit liquidity at this point.

    The market makers decided the path it seems like you can either get on board or get rolled over trying to fight the hand.

    Never fight the hand

    https://i.redd.it/l9urhjo1sggd1.jpeg

    Posted by dividends4losers

    View 34 Comments

    34 Comments

    2. callmekizzle on

      The market is likely going to go sideways/slightly up until the election. Then it will rocket upward once that’s over.

    8. Delavan1185 on

      I feel like this rally has a double top or one more up leg in it, and then something will hit the fan. Maybe the regional banks again, maybe consumer credit delinquencies, maybe something else.

      Not sure the “real” downturn (as opposed to whatever the last two weeks have been) lasts that long since the Fed has so much ammo, and maybe some of the IRA/CHIPS investments pay off in the jobs data. And small cap investment has been so suppressed from the inflation-fighting.

      But it does feel like real softening is kicking in, and a couple 25bp cuts won’t make much of a dent. Given Goolsbee’s commemts I don’t expect much more than that. Maybe one 50bp cut if we’re lucky. But it really feels like the Fed rate needs to get back into the 3% range to extend the growth.

      Who knows though. Maybe we get that, and the consumers actually overleverage out their asses. And we get another lovely credit bubble crash in a few years ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225)

    10. Key-Tie2542 on

      Powell has more than just hinted that if things weaken, they’ll intervene. Specifically, 4.5% unemployment was a number said by Powell to be something like (I’m paraphrasing) “worryingly high and worthy of swift intervention”.

      This doesn’t mean the market couldn’t or shouldn’t fall. It just means quality companies in more stable sectors will likely do just fine within a 2+ year horizon.

    13. Forecydian on

      good call, the market may trade sideways or down in the interim, but as soon as interest rates lower its gonna rocket

    17. Max-entropy999 on

      You’d be brave to bet against turning on the printers but it is harder this time. Previous round has caused inflation, and that’s made gov debt repayments barely sustainable. More printing makes that worse, and it’s immediate, not a can kicking exercise.

      Also, Powell said he’d intervene if unemployment got very bad. Well, as we’ve seen from the last round, printing is effective for asset price inflation, not so much for jobs on main street.

      My betting is if it gets real bad before the election, no printing. But if it gets bad afterwards, and we have you know who in, then printing will happen because Powell et.al. prefer being alive and not the target of politically motivated assassinations (cos now, that would be legal and all, crazy days)

    18. futurespacecadet on

      There are literally two different head and shoulders formations forming on the chart you shared, is that supposed to convince people?

    19. Huge-Application7394 on

      The eco is shit for most people, yet the rich have never been richer, money doesn’t disappear it’s all gone to them, and as interest rates drop and they start earning less they gunna have to park there money somewhere 😉

    22. CleCavs2020Champs on

      Surely as long as I keep buying as they get lower my average cost will keep going down meaning I never lose money 🤔

    23. kuharido on

      Here is what I believe is happening. SP500 valuation is based on combined total earnings (mostly but there is a lot of dynamics), companies are killing earnings and GDP is growing, so market is going up. However, the reason it feels like a shitty economy is because for the every day individual, not companies, this growth isn’t trickling down in any way. Not only is wage growth stagnent, but there are less jobs, and the excess cash generated by these companies is sitting in treasuries and cash on balance sheet.

      There used to be a more tightly coupled relationship between GDP growth and wage growth, that relationship has been broken due to the fact that companies over the past decade have significantly increased efficiency and productivity.

    24. Syab_of_Caltrops on

      Thank you. Every time I see “recession fears” flowing across all the highly regarded financial headlines I think “ok, so we’re hitting new ATHs soon. great.”

    26. Stringer514 on

      After reading a lot of comnents I can see why most of y’all belong here regards.

    27. straightbear123 on

      I’m sick of crybabies like you pretending everything is fine because you don’t know anything 🤡🫵

    28. Furlz on

      It’s gonna keep going down throughout August, sideways October and September then Santa rally

    33. cardboardalpaca on

      anyone else sick of “numbers” and “macroeconomic trends”? I want to be rich already!! SPY 3000 so I can retire now. The market makers could make it happen if they really wanted, they just want to keep me broke and scared. SPY to the moon 🚀🚀

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