Anyone else sick of pretending the market is crashing because of some "data…" some "jobs numbers"
We've known for months the eco is on its knees & the banks are leveraged to the tits. We ditched fund analysis years ago at this point. We're just printing (but with Al.) People can say "CPI this GDP that" but at the end of the day next week everyone's gonna wake up, take a sip of coffee, get on their laptops and start pumping again like nothing happened. We're just exit liquidity at this point.
The market makers decided the path it seems like you can either get on board or get rolled over trying to fight the hand.
Never fight the hand
https://i.redd.it/l9urhjo1sggd1.jpeg
Posted by dividends4losers
34 Comments
I bought yesterday
The market is likely going to go sideways/slightly up until the election. Then it will rocket upward once thatβs over.
SPY 450 by April.
Bought Spy + Nvidia and Palantir yesterday. Still an Election year
https://preview.redd.it/q8297ffnzggd1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be6c27ee3ee0c7be13d7d7e7ee6afad1e29a8947
Aww jeez
600? Rookie numbers 750 eoy
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I feel like this rally has a double top or one more up leg in it, and then something will hit the fan. Maybe the regional banks again, maybe consumer credit delinquencies, maybe something else.
Not sure the “real” downturn (as opposed to whatever the last two weeks have been) lasts that long since the Fed has so much ammo, and maybe some of the IRA/CHIPS investments pay off in the jobs data. And small cap investment has been so suppressed from the inflation-fighting.
But it does feel like real softening is kicking in, and a couple 25bp cuts won’t make much of a dent. Given Goolsbee’s commemts I don’t expect much more than that. Maybe one 50bp cut if we’re lucky. But it really feels like the Fed rate needs to get back into the 3% range to extend the growth.
Who knows though. Maybe we get that, and the consumers actually overleverage out their asses. And we get another lovely credit bubble crash in a few years ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225)
https://preview.redd.it/02dwgtip3hgd1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ddf8b0ee4f3a9b607bd57a7425140334098292a6
Powell has more than just hinted that if things weaken, they’ll intervene. Specifically, 4.5% unemployment was a number said by Powell to be something like (I’m paraphrasing) “worryingly high and worthy of swift intervention”.
This doesn’t mean the market couldn’t or shouldn’t fall. It just means quality companies in more stable sectors will likely do just fine within a 2+ year horizon.
They wonβt forget a Middle East full scale War.
610 in December
good call, the market may trade sideways or down in the interim, but as soon as interest rates lower its gonna rocket
The market is selling big tech to buy 2 year T-Bills for that 3.9% return.
Iβm regarded and I think itβs possible so
I’m so happy to see posts like this. Somebody has to lose for me to win.
You’d be brave to bet against turning on the printers but it is harder this time. Previous round has caused inflation, and that’s made gov debt repayments barely sustainable. More printing makes that worse, and it’s immediate, not a can kicking exercise.
Also, Powell said he’d intervene if unemployment got very bad. Well, as we’ve seen from the last round, printing is effective for asset price inflation, not so much for jobs on main street.
My betting is if it gets real bad before the election, no printing. But if it gets bad afterwards, and we have you know who in, then printing will happen because Powell et.al. prefer being alive and not the target of politically motivated assassinations (cos now, that would be legal and all, crazy days)
There are literally two different head and shoulders formations forming on the chart you shared, is that supposed to convince people?
The eco is shit for most people, yet the rich have never been richer, money doesnβt disappear itβs all gone to them, and as interest rates drop and they start earning less they gunna have to park there money somewhere π
Real Economy vs. Infinity Printer w/ Reserve Currency buff: WHO WINS?!?!
Y’all are sleeping on wastewater companies.
Surely as long as I keep buying as they get lower my average cost will keep going down meaning I never lose money π€
Here is what I believe is happening. SP500 valuation is based on combined total earnings (mostly but there is a lot of dynamics), companies are killing earnings and GDP is growing, so market is going up. However, the reason it feels like a shitty economy is because for the every day individual, not companies, this growth isnβt trickling down in any way. Not only is wage growth stagnent, but there are less jobs, and the excess cash generated by these companies is sitting in treasuries and cash on balance sheet.
There used to be a more tightly coupled relationship between GDP growth and wage growth, that relationship has been broken due to the fact that companies over the past decade have significantly increased efficiency and productivity.
Thank you. Every time I see “recession fears” flowing across all the highly regarded financial headlines I think “ok, so we’re hitting new ATHs soon. great.”
Head and shoulders mean anything?
After reading a lot of comnents I can see why most of y’all belong here regards.
I’m sick of crybabies like you pretending everything is fine because you don’t know anything π€‘π«΅
It’s gonna keep going down throughout August, sideways October and September then Santa rally
Lol the bull cope in here is unreal
Or SPY 350 πΏ
![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
What the fuck are these dates
anyone else sick of βnumbersβ and βmacroeconomic trendsβ? I want to be rich already!! SPY 3000 so I can retire now. The market makers could make it happen if they really wanted, they just want to keep me broke and scared. SPY to the moon ππ
yup bozos were calling for a market crash at spy $410 ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)