Due to AI hype the market may be overvalued. We may see continued corrections and even a crash. But even the Black Monday crash of 1987 saw the market recover in 2 years. Recalling the dotcom crash strikes fear into the hearts of investors because it took so many years for the market to get back to where it was. But the market would have recovered much faster if 9/11 wouldn’t have occurred on the heels of the dotcom crash creating a perfect storm, dooming the market for a long period.
When people compare the current situation to the dotcom crash they are missing an important detail: 9/11
byu/kfc3po inwallstreetbets
Posted by kfc3po
43 Comments
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Are you saying the ME is more stable these days?
So let’s play devils advocate here, what would you call the growing instability in the Middle East? Something’s gonna happen it seems
I mean do people forget that one of the hallmarks of the dot com bubble was the daily minting of shitty IPOs that were running 90% on avg in a day? We haven’t seen that at all. It’s not even comparable to the AI frenzy we have seen this year. At least there is actual capital expenditure to build out real AI infrastructure.
If ww3 breaks out in 6 months it’d be far worse than 9/11
The market is certainly overvalued, we are in for a major correction.
9/11 happens everyday now a days. This will end with the victory of wwIII. Hope the good guys win.
https://preview.redd.it/8g8m2kduuogd1.jpeg?width=189&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6475053d03fe3c222c38b779a1fde977a7b6473c
A correction isn’t a crash… this is most likely the beginning of a correction and not a crash.
It’s The Great Correction of 2024!
One could make the argument that the mess we are in today was the result of 9/11. There is a consequence to 2 decades of free money
We are likely to have a massive regional conflict in the Middle East right as this recession is rearing its head… Nothing like dotcom, right?! 911 had nothing to do with anything like that I’m sure.
If we actually get a recession governments will have some trouble in stopping it cause we have been spending so much already because of Covid and for Europe the Ukraine conflict and resulting energy crisis. This will could ofcourse lead to a correction to the market cause there will be less money around. This might as well be easily solved by the next rate cut though and then the sky is the limit.
But if we see some fuckery with the strait of Hormuz sending oil prices to the moon we might be fucked for a while.
Roger that, getting a plane asap, bon voyage!
https://preview.redd.it/bmyi5iyvwogd1.png?width=493&format=png&auto=webp&s=497883859533924fd259af9bced44114a2693dbb
[https://www.prairieviewpartners.com/blog/myth-of-the-lost-decade](https://www.prairieviewpartners.com/blog/myth-of-the-lost-decade)
Don’t put all your eggs in S&P
Nothing about the analogy to the dot com era holds true. People who think that are either overly dramatic or under-informed
I love how people compare this dip to the Dotcom bubble. We’re up 13% YTD on the S&P500 lol. Maybe zoom out?
For the $100B+ that the US has invested in to AI over the last few years, we have a few tools to generate fake news articles, fake videos with fake audio, and consistently awful generated text that even high schoolers can’t reliably use to plagiarize with.
At a certain point, we need to cut our losses here. AI isn’t the next Terminator Skynet. It’s a sophisticated regression toolkit that we’ve tried to apply across every dimension of human existence, and it isn’t helping much so far.
9-11 was great for business, what the fuck are you on about?
INTC🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
It’s okay we’ll just deal with WWIII instead of 9/11
9/11 followed by two foreign wars in Afghanistan (failure) and Iraq (illegal)
I work in cybersecurity at a huge corporation and AI isn’t some “fad” or “hype”. AI is enhancing industries and streamlining processes that took months to weeks. I would say this is a kin to people calling firearms hype or not sufficient when they were first introduced.
Stop comparing dotcom bubble to ai situation, those are entirely different sizes, like what nvidia got hyped because of AI, msft and few others got marginal bump, normal companies saying AI in their marketing aint making them any more valued. Current AI situation is not a big bubble, big tech being overvalued has nothing to do with “AI bubble”
You just jinxed it congrats
lol the bears got delusional fast this time
You haven’t heard about 8/5?
I have not experienced a single market crash where everyone was talking about it. It has always happened when the loudest voices were saying, “A market crash is absurdity this is the strongest bull market in history”
We aren’t there yet.
Last week, BUY! This week, CRASH! Love WSB
You made me remember that interest rates were super high in the late 90s. The first house I bought had like a 6 percent rate. I was young and dumb and didn’t realize that was terrible. Anyway, so I checked it out because I thought how uncanny the same then and now. Then the dot com hit, and the world changed. According to my research, interest rates being high also were influenced by the creation of mutual funds. I agree with that because I started my trading at this time, and mutual funds were pushed on me. I, of course, wanted tech stocks. I just didn’t have much money, but I am still kicking my own ass for not holding that first account. What happened, you all ask??? I got scared by the same bullshit going on today. I then cashed out of qcom and oracle and Microsoft. Had I stayed in my 100 qcom shares, would it be worth 191 thousand. My Microsoft shares would be worth 164 thousand, and oracle would be close to the same. Anyway, I got scared again later. I screwed myself, so the point is to buy and hold. If you love the stock, stay in there. What was interesting looking up Microsoft was how many times it split during the tech revolution. According to Google, they split like this:
2003-02-18 2:1
1999-03-29 2:1
1998-02-23 2:1
1996-12-09 2:1
1994-05-23 2:1
1992-06-15 3:2
1991-06-27 3:2
1990-04-16 2:1
1987-09-21 2:1
Today, they are running stocks higher and splitting by the 10. Hopefully, you get the point that even with 9/11, I would be balling on that one account. We have an opportunity right now that won’t come around for another 30-years.
Lol 1987, the market was hardly overvalued. Today’s market is the most overvalued or near it for EVERY traditional/fundamental measure of valuation
The first war between regular armies have been raging in the first world since 1945. The Russian war is something that has not been seen since WWII.
Everyone became overnight millionaires in theory whoever cashed out before the crash were the real winners . Sometimes you have to take what is on the table than potential especially if it’s 5x profits
The market recovered much faster than the tech sector.
Good thing we have much better relations in the Middle East.
I think the flood of money that entered the market the day AI became popular showed us the market is ready to recover. The money is there. The problem is cultural. No hedge funds want to invest its money unless it’s guaranteeing >5% returns every quarter.
Also, pets.com and it’s sisters.
The 911 event this time around was Covid spending and loan forgiveness ($359 BILLION) plus over the top foreign aid to Ukraine and others.
I personally think Biden was in a confused state when he over promised Ukraine’s spending spree.
You’ve got to pay the piper at some point when foreign and forgiveness monitory policy is too lax, and when the goal of high interest rates is to curb inflation, while stifling organic growth, the result is a recession.
Damn almost forgot….
Absolutely braindead take. The markets were already down a solid 30-40% when that attack happened. Had 0 to do with the crash it just happened to be in the middle of it. By the way the market actually RALLIED after 9/11 and stayed above the pre 9/11 price for nearly 6 months before descending back down and continuing the selloff
The real winning play would have been buying up a bunch of Amazon at $3 after the crash
yes, because markets hate war.
Everyone compares AI to the dotcom bubble! What about cloud computing in 2010? Oh wait, because that wasn’t a bubble (even though they were saying it was at the time), it was and still is just a huge game changer! Sound familiar?